Rain Industries Limited (BOM:500339)
India flag India · Delayed Price · Currency is INR
126.15
-5.45 (-4.14%)
At close: Apr 30, 2026
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q1 2024

May 9, 2024

Saranga Pani
General Manager of Corporate Reporting & Investor Relations, Rain Industries Limited

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. This is Saranga Pani, General Manager, Corporate Reporting and Investor Relations for Rain Industries Limited. In just a moment, we will take you through the performance of Rain Industries Limited during the first quarter of 2024. Presenters are Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman of Rain Industries Limited, Mr. Gerard Sweeney, President of Rain Carbon Inc., and Mr. T. Srinivasa Rao, Chief Financial Officer of Rain Industries Limited. Before we begin, management would like to mention during this call, we may touch upon forward-looking statements which encompass various topics such as performance, trends, objectives, and strategies. Please be aware that these statements are rooted in our current expectations and may be influenced by potential risks and uncertainties. Certain factors could potentially lead to outcomes differing from those predicted by these forward-looking statements.

Additionally, we will be delving into specific non-GAAP estimated financial metrics, and the accompanying slides provide the related non-GAAP reconciliations. Now, if you could turn to slide three, Mr. Jagan Reddy will provide an update on key developments in Rain Group during the first quarter of 2024. Thank you, and over to Mr. Jagan.

Jagan Mohan Reddy Nellore
Vice Chairman, Rain Industries Limited

Thank you, Sarang, and hello, everyone. Turning to slide three of the presentation, let us begin with safety. We began first quarter 2024 with the TRIR, which is, Total Recordable Incident Rate, of 0.14 at Rain Carbon level. While we obviously strive for zero incidents, the winter months present some unique challenges with slippery conditions and shorter daylight hours. Our focus on safety remains constant and unwavering. As we steadfastly pursue our goal of ingraining safety into every facet of our daily routines, we are excited to unveil a fresh initiative across all our global locations. This initiative underscores the imperative of extending our safety mindset beyond the confines of the Rain work sites, recognizing the importance of safeguarding ourselves during the entirety of journeys to and from work.

Regrettably, we have witnessed several employee injuries during these commutes, serving as a stark reminder of the necessity to remain vigilant and proactive in always ensuring our well-being. We finished the first quarter with an EBITDA of INR 3.3 billion. Our quarterly earnings are persistently lingering below our typical benchmarks, demanding our utmost attention. Although there is a directional improvement in EBITDA compared to the preceding quarter, we anticipate this progression to be gradual. The primary driver behind this upturn is the lingering margin compression witnessed in our high-volume product segments, calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Following a period of higher realizations throughout 2021 and 2022, the market took a downward spiral from the second quarter of 2023 onwards, creating significant hurdles in stabilizing both our product pricing and critically our operational costs. Typically, our recalibration period spans a couple of quarters.

However, this time, the present cycle presents unprecedented challenges. What renders this period truly distinctive is the descent from historically high calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch product prices that triggered substantial price differentials globally. Chinese and integrated European producers swiftly slashed their prices despite the slower decline in raw material costs. Chinese suppliers operate on a just-in-time basis for raw materials, while European producers adjust their production in accordance with the market fluctuations. This intercontinental discrepancy exerted immense pricing pressures on independent merchant processors. Encouragingly, we have observed a substantial reduction in this arbitrage phenomenon. From once towering above $100 per ton, we now predominantly observe worldwide pricing nearing parity or achieving it outright.

The other significant challenges for the carbon business in the first quarter of Rain includes a major turbine failure at our Lake Charles calcined petroleum coke plant that disrupted production, and the continued global conflicts hampered shipping between key markets in Europe and Asia. Conversely, within our advanced materials segment, we witnessed improved margins fueled by reduced gas prices and heightened volumes, notably in HHCR. We are particularly gratified by these results, given the traditionally sluggish demand during this period. The uptick in local European demand amidst disruptions in shipping channels for Asian supplies into the Mediterranean and European markets due to the Red Sea conflicts, has notably bolstered our business. This trend highlights the segment's ability to capitalize even on unexpected opportunities.

Challenges persist within our carbon segment, with our EBITDA margin around 10% compared to the normal range of 16%-18%, underscoring the hurdles in aligning raw material costs with finished product prices. The calcination market continues to face downward pressure on pricing, exacerbated by slower declines in the raw materials, green petroleum coke compared to calcined petroleum coke prices, primarily due to the constrained availability of green petroleum coke in the marketplace. Finally, we are now seeing declining green petroleum coke prices, particularly for low sulfur green petroleum coke. Notably, the first quarter saw a significant downturn in calcined petroleum coke volumes, particularly in India, as smelter customers destocked to manage year-end balance sheets and awaited the impacts of new CPC, calcined petroleum coke, and green petroleum coke regulations before making additional purchases.

Encouragingly, global aluminum industry prospects are improving, with aluminum prices surpassing the $2,500 mark, accompanied by reduced inventories as Europe and U.S. recently implemented tougher sanctions on trading of aluminum metal from Russia. In our carbon segment distillation business, product prices have stabilized after a prolonged decline, albeit with margins on coal tar pitch under continued pressure from escalating coal tar raw material costs amidst ongoing global conflicts and reductions in steel production. Amidst the protracted recovery in our markets, especially with our major carbon segment products, optimism for the return to normalized earnings in the second half of 2024 is bolstered by recent aluminum price trends and favorable rulings in India, facilitating capacity improvements in our calcination operations.

Entering the second quarter, 2024, signs of market stabilization indicate potential return to normalized margins in the latter half of the year, marking a shift from the preceding 18 months of decline in global industry trends. Positive economic signals abound across major global regions. In the United States, despite apprehensions about inflation, the economy maintains robustness, underscoring sustained consumer demand for goods and housing. Meanwhile, in Europe, energy prices are trending towards pre-war levels, while the industrial sector exhibits promising signs of resurgence. China, after initial concerns of a looming recession, witnessed growth in pivotal sectors such as electric vehicles and electronics during the first quarter of 2024. Looking ahead, an eagerly awaited central party assembly in the upcoming summer is poised to unveil stimulus initiatives targeting at bolstering the essential industries and fortifying the banking sector, thereby alleviating economic strains in China.

Regarding the cement segment, there are several compelling reasons to maintain a positive outlook. In 2023, we witnessed a robust resurgence in cement demand in South India with a growth rate of 78% annually. This surge can be largely attributed to the sustained infrastructure investments by the Indian government, serving as a key catalyst for this expansion. As fuel and energy prices stabilize and demand steadily increases, we project an improvement in our operating margins during the latter part of 2024, following the conclusion of the general elections in India. Furthermore, our cement division reached a significant sustainability milestone in 2023. We added a solar power plant to our Nandyal facility, complementing our existing waste heat energy production infrastructure.

Given that cement production is inherently energy intensive, with electricity required for raw material processing, fuel preparation, and product grinding, this move to renewable energy sources is pivotal. By synergizing waste heat power co-generation with our expanded solar electricity generation, Rain is markedly reducing the carbon footprint associated with cement production. This dual approach not only bolsters our environmental credentials, but also underscores our commitment to sustainable practices. This highlights our dedication to reducing our ecological impact while meeting the escalating demand for cement in the market. We are confident that Rain is well-positioned to navigate the challenging environment and capitalize on emerging opportunities. With that, I will now turn over the presentation to Jerry to take you through some additional industry and business updates on slide four. Gerard?

Gerard Sweeney
President, Rain Carbon

Thank you, Jagan. Hello, everyone. It's a pleasure to speak with you all again. Moving on to slide four, market publications have consistently projected a positive outlook for the performance of aluminum, despite the downward pricing trend that had been in place and the slowing demand we were seeing on the customer side. It appears this longer-term optimism has been well placed. Forecasts suggest that global aluminum production will be more robust over the next couple of years compared to the cumulative output of the past five years. We have even seen an announcement of a new U.S. green aluminum smelter from our CPC and CTP customer, Century Aluminum. This will be the first new smelter built in the U.S. in 45 years, and follows several recent smelter closures in the U.S., signaling a regional industry turning point.

With regards to key commodity price trends and our business during the first quarter of 2024, volumes were clearly the culprit, and primarily in the calcination business worldwide. The carbon segment experienced an overall 13% decline in volumes and a 4% decline in pricing... The volume decrease was primarily attributable to a weak shipment schedule in India, due to the earlier mentioned fiscal year and government ruling timing. On the pricing side, we had our first good news in a while. Raw material price reductions outstripped finished price products, drops for the first time in several quarters. Raw material prices dropped 18% compared to previous quarter, while pricing marginally declined. On the distillation side of our carbon segment, coal tar pitch sales benefited from increased volumes of 17% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter.

Pitch prices decreased by 9% in the first quarter, driven by aggressive price pushbacks due to the existing arbitrage. Prices for our coal tar raw materials dropped 6% in the same quarter. Elsewhere in our carbon segment, our other carbon products category, volumes decreased by 10%, and the pricing has dropped by 7% compared to the previous quarter. We are pleased to report that our advanced materials segment's EBITDA was quite strong for the first quarter, with stronger than expected volumes. This was reassuring after a disappointing Q4. In this segment's engineered product subcategory, volumes of CARBORES and our petroleum-based PETRORES were up 19% on relatively flat pricing, recovering somewhat from Q4 volumes, which were negatively impacted due to the shipping situation in the Red Sea.

Looking at the segment's chemical intermediate subcategory, our BTX and phthalic anhydride volumes were higher compared with the previous quarter, driven primarily by improved BTX sales on account of increased raw material availability, with pricing remaining, again, relatively flat in this subcategory. Moving on to resins and downstream materials in our advanced materials segment, volumes increased 17% compared to Q4 2023. Pricing fell only slightly in the quarter after having dropped significantly in Q4. Contrary to the disruptions which our engineered products business experienced due to Red Sea shipping issues, this subcategory is actually benefiting from these same circumstances. Our, as our made-in-Europe products, including HHCR, have seen increased regional demand in the Europe and Mediterranean zones. Customers in these areas are realizing that the reliability benefits inure to locally produced supply after yet another supply chain disruption from Asia.

As we have noted in past discussions, most of our competition for these residues comes from Asia through the Red Sea. Moving to Slide six, on revenue by end industry. As you can observe, the aluminum industry contributed about 38% of our consolidated revenues, a decrease of 10% compared to the prior quarter, primarily driven by the reduced volumes from the calcination business. We expect this to return to its normal range of 45%-50% of revenue next quarter. The balance revenue is generated from varied industries, including construction and carbon black. With that, I'll now turn the presentation to Srinivas, who will take you through the consolidated financial performance of Rain on Slide seven. Srinivas, over to you.

T. Srinivasa Rao
CFO, Rain Industries Limited

Thank you, Jerry, and hello, everyone. In the first quarter of 2024, Rain achieved consolidated net revenues of INR 36.57 billion, compared to INR 52.09 billion in the first quarter of 2023, a decrease of INR 15.52 billion. This resulted from a decrease in revenue of INR 16.03 billion from our carbon segment and a decrease of INR 0.1 billion from our cement segment, offset by an increase of INR 0.61 billion from our advanced materials segment. Rain's consolidated Adjusted EBITDA decreased by INR 3.59 billion compared to the prior year.

This resulted from a decrease of INR 3.82 billion in the carbon segment and a decrease of INR 0.07 billion in the cement segment, offset by an increase in the INR 0.3 billion in the advanced materials segment. Moving to Slide eight. Revenue from our carbon segment was INR 24.69 billion for the quarter ended March thirty-first, 2024, as compared to INR 40.72 billion for the same period last year. During the quarter, sales volumes decrease was primarily driven by reduced volumes from the calcination business due to destocking by Asian smelters. During the first quarter of 2024, the average blended realizations decreased by 25.7% on account of lower market quotations across all the regions.

There was an appreciation of the euro against the Indian rupee by 2.2% and an appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Indian rupee by 0.9%. Overall, due to the aforesaid reasons, revenue from carbon segment decreased by 39.4% in first quarter of 2024, as compared to first quarter of 2023. Carbon segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased by INR 3,815 million as compared to first quarter of 2023, driven primarily due to lower volumes, coupled with impact on margins due to delay in reduction of raw material costs in line with the fall in finished goods prices, which was partially offset by appreciation of the U.S. dollar and euro against the Indian rupee.... Moving to next slide. On the performance of advanced materials.

Revenue from our advanced materials segment was INR 8.21 billion for the quarter ended March 31st, 2024, as compared to INR 7.6 billion for the same quarter in 2023. The increase in volumes was primarily driven by Red Sea crisis impacting Asian supplies, revamp of HHCR plant, and availability of raw materials compared to earlier quarters. During the first quarter of 2024, realizations decreased by 4.5% due to fall in commodity price, offset by an appreciation of euro against Indian rupees by 2.2%. Due to these aforesaid reasons, revenue from advanced materials segment increased by 8% during first quarter of 2024, as compared to first quarter of 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA increased by INR 296 million as compared to the first quarter of 2023, due to increased volumes, reduced energy prices, and also appreciation of the euro against the Indian rupee. Moving to slide number 10 on cement business. During the first quarter of 2024, cement revenue decreased by 2.7% as compared to first quarter of 2023, due to decrease in realizations by 5%, offset by increase in volumes by 2.4%. Our cement segment, adjusted EBITDA decreased by INR 69 million due to lower realizations and increase in operating cost. Moving to the slide 11 on debt. We ended the quarter with total debt of $1,039 million, including working capital debt of $102 million.

Net debt was about $799 million, and based on LTM EBITDA of $200 million, we ended the quarter with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4x. We expect the leverage would move towards 3x gradually with improvement in performance, coupled with reduction in debt over next few quarters. You might have noted the decrease in senior secured notes, which was due to repurchases during the current quarter. The movement in the euro-denominated term loan is on account of forex fluctuations of USD against euro during the quarter. From a liquidity perspective, we ended the quarter with $473 million of liquidity, consisting of $240 million of cash, cash balance, and $233 million of undrawn credit facilities.

The group spent approximately $70 million on maintenance, capital expenditure, and plant around turnarounds during the first quarter of 2024. With that, I will now turn the presentation to Mr. Jagan for closing remarks.

Jagan Mohan Reddy Nellore
Vice Chairman, Rain Industries Limited

Thank you, [Finos]. As we reflect on the continued challenges presented during the first quarter of 2024, we are committed as management to overcoming them in the coming quarters and returning our earnings to normal levels. We want to emphasize that these current market conditions are temporary and do not signify a permanent shift in our trajectory. We firmly believe that our earnings will gradually return to our historical levels in the forthcoming quarters. We foresee a correction in certain key raw material prices, which will directly impact our financial recovery. We are also realigning our supply chains to accommodate the expected increase in the CPC production in India in the future. Our carbon segment's calcination plants in India had been operating well below the rated capacity due to restrictions imposed several years ago on imports of our raw materials into the country.

However, with the recent relaxation of those import restrictions by the Honorable Commission for Air Quality Management, or CAQM, based on the directives of the Honorable Supreme Court of India, Rain anticipates finally being able to ramp up the Indian operations to higher capacities, which would allow us to significantly improve the overall performance. Part of the import relaxation was to increase the import quota of green petroleum coke, or GPC, from 1.4 million tons per annum to 1.9 million tons per annum. This was implemented by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade through its allocations announced in early April 2024, and allows for increased production at Rain's DTA calcination plant at Vizag.

However, the regulatory authorities have yet to formulate steps for implementing another part of the same CAQM model regarding the import of green petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke for Rain's Special Economic Zone plant, which cannot begin its ramp up until the clarity is given. We anticipate those regulations should be issued soon, and upon the implementation of the CAQM model, your company's CPC calcination plants in India can optimize capacity utilization and create a favorable environment for a return on the capital invested in setting up the new CPC plant in the Special Economic Zone. We cannot control the markets, but we can control our costs. In that light, we can also report that throughout this down cycle we have remained proactive in enhancing our cost efficiency across the board.

Our team has implemented significant and sustainable cost-saving measures, not only to safeguard our current earnings, but also to fortify them for the future. We have undertaken initiatives such as consolidating corporate offices, optimizing operations, and streamlining our workforce. We anticipate a positive shift in demand for Rain products starting in the latter half of 2024. In addition, with our robust research and development strategy, we are confident in our ability to come out of the current down cycle on top, as we have in the past. We are focused on adapting and thriving in this rapidly evolving market in both the near and long terms. In closing, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to our dedicated employees for their outstanding work during these challenging times. Their commitment and resilience are instrumental in navigating the company through the troubled waters.

While the last year presented numerous challenges, we remain steadfast in our commitment to the long-term success of Rain. We are confident that our strategic initiatives will pave the way for a stronger and more resilient organization. Thank you for your continued interest in Rain Industries Limited, and we look forward to the next quarter's presentation. Thank you.

Powered by