Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call of Torrent Pharma. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference, please signal an operator by pressing Star and then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sudhir Menon, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director, Finance. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening to all, and thank you for joining us for the fourth quarter earning call for FY 2024. We've completed quarter four and the year on a good note. All our businesses have performed well. US has registered degrowth this quarter. US should start contributing positively to the overall growth in FY 2025. In terms of financial performance highlights, revenues were INR 2,745 crore, up by 10%. Operating EBITDA for the quarter is INR 883 crore, up by 21%. Operating EBITDA margins stood at 32%. The board of directors have recommended a final dividend of INR 6 per equity share, and the overall leverage, as at 31 March 2024, now stands at 0.87x. I'll now hand over the call to Aman for India business.
Thanks, Sudhir. India revenue at INR 1,380 crore registered a growth of 10%. As per the AIC secondary market data, IPM growth for the quarter stands at 9%. Torrent's chronic business grew at 14% versus the IPM growth of 12%. Growth was driven by new launches in the chronic therapies, particularly anti-diabetic, performance of top brands in our focus therapies, and augmented by field force expansion in core therapy areas, along with the consumer health business traction. Shelcal 500 continues to grow robustly across all states and regions where we have invested in advertising and OTC marketing. Continue to invest further in, which are Tedibar, Ahaglow, and Unienzyme, due to the positive response that we've seen in the last few quarters.
At the end of the quarter, Torrent has 20 brands in the top 500 of the IPM, with 17 brands more than INR 100 crore sales as of March 24. Field force strength at the end of the quarter stands at 5,700. We expect the India business to continue outperforming the market growth in the coming quarters, and our focus in the new financial year will be to improve our market share in chronic therapies, expand through new launches in existing therapy areas, improving field force productivity in the expanded divisions and regions, and continue the scale-up of the consumer health portfolio. I'll now hand over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta for the international business.
Thanks, Aman. We're supposed to begin with Brazil. For the fiscal year 2023-2024, Brazil became our largest affiliate outside India, with an annual revenue of INR 1,126 crores. As per IQVIA, during the year, market growth in Brazil was at 10% and Torrent growth was at 14%. For 2023-2024, our revenue in local currency was BRL 671 million, growing at a rate of 12%. It brings us a step closer to our goal to reach BRL 1 billion in Brazilian local currency revenues. In Q4, constant currency revenue was BRL 222 million, registering 11% year-on-year growth. Growth is supported by the robust pricing environment, volume growth, and new launch momentum. We've had a consistent pace of new launches.
There were 4 in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 2 in FY 2024. Going forward, we intend to maintain 3-5 branded launches per year. We've recently obtained approval of Lisdexamfetamine, which will be our first product in the large CNS segment of ADHD. Our generics business continues to show momentum and accounted for annual sales of BRL 92 million, at a growth rate of 31% over the prior year. Moving on to Germany. Our German business has registered a full year revenue of EUR 120 million at a growth rate of 8%. For the quarter, revenue was at EUR 31 million, up by 8%. For the last 5 quarters, we have increased our overall value of wins in tenders. This trend continued during the current quarter and will lead to incremental sales starting from Q2 of 2024-25.
The wins are due to cost optimization efforts, which are essential to maintain our competitiveness in tenders. New product launches continue at a sustained pace in Germany. During 2023-2024, we launched 8 new products, with an expectation to launch between 10-15 products in 2024-2025. During the year, we also increased the number of sales reps in Germany and increased our pharmacy coverage from 5,000 to 8,000 pharmacies out of a total of 17,000 pharmacies in Germany. Our overall share in the German generic market is now at a two-year high of close to 6%. In the US, we registered constant currency revenues of $32 million, down by 7%. Sequentially, the US business has delivered stable revenues, backed by new contracts, which have helped mitigate the impact of several new competitors for our leading product, which is Dapsone.
To conclude, our focus will remain on deepening our presence in branded generic markets, while continuing to grow in Germany and returning to profitable growth in the US. Dorian, we can open the call up to questions, please. Thank you.
Certainly, sir. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session … Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have the first question from the line of Damayanti Kerai from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening, and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on India business. You ended the year at 14% growth. How should we look at growth trajectory in FY25 from this high base? And if you can also talk a bit about the key growth drivers in terms of price, volume or contribution?
Yes, if we look at the April external data, AIOCD or IQVIA, the market growth rate is about 9%, and we think that's likely to sustain for the rest of the year. We believe we should be well placed to grow a couple of percent, maybe 2-3% higher than that. In terms of therapy areas, the focus areas remain the same, improving chronic market share. In terms of growth, sorry, growth breakup, we registered a growth of 15% in the AIS three data in Q4. The breakup of that is 3% volume, 8% price and 4% new products.
So this price contribution obviously is on higher side compared to, I guess, in the prior years. So, should we assume some moderation there? Or do you think this high single digit kind of price contribution can be sustained?
Well, usually it's been in this range. Quarter to quarter, the reflection might be slightly different, but we believe that within this range of 7%-8% should be sustainable.
Okay. Okay, thanks. And, also, if you can talk a bit more about your progress in the consumer health basket in India, like, where are you spending majorly in terms of, of growing those brands, et cetera?
So the most visible, successful impact that we've seen is in Shelcal, and that's purely because of the scale of the brand and the established legacy, which added with the consumer spends has given pretty good results. So we'll continue to invest more in Shelcal. Tedib ar, we've kind of started in the last six months, and again, I mean, it's a relatively smaller scale of investment that we've done, but the results are again, quite positive. So we might scale up a bit more on Tedibar. Ahaglow and Unienzyme and the other two, where we've put them on a slightly lower priority. At least that was the case in the previous financial year, in FY24. FY25, we might continue the same mix.
Broadly speaking, the priority should remain the same, led by Shelcal and Tedibar.
Okay. My last question: Do you have plan to expand the MR team in your India, India business? Or do you think the current team is good enough to pursue the growth opportunities?
We have the same plan that we mentioned in the previous quarter, that we believe organic growth will require maybe annual expansion of 300-400 MRs every year, and that's the plan this year as well. So possibly by the end of this year, we should be about, at about 6,000 MRs.
Okay. Thank you. All the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, you may please press star and one.
Okay.
The next question is from the line of Neha Manpuria from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. First, Sanjay, on the general business, obviously, we have seen a pretty good growth this year. I know you've mentioned in the past you're launching more products. How should we look at growth from the, you know, current base? Should we assume that the growth momentum that we've seen this year sustains going forward, you know, the mid-teen sort of growth that continues on a constant currency basis?
Yes, I think, Neha, that's a safe assumption. Given that, in April, we saw a price increase given by the government, at about 4.5%, plus the volume growth, plus new product launches and strong growth in our GG segment, we should be comfortably closer to 15% than to 10%.
Okay, and how many product launches are we planning in business? Sorry, I missed that.
So, here I suffer from a surfeit of riches, because we have a lot of products which are filed and approved. But given that we have three teams, and-
Mm-hmm.
Just, since we are selling branded generics, we like to ideally launch two products per team per year. So that would give me-
Okay.
About 6 products. I would launch between 4 and 6 products every year with the current that I have.
Oh, okay, and any plans to expand this team, given the growth that we are seeing in that market? You know, could it see more people addition to accelerate this growth?
Not in the short run, because if you recall, last year, we added an entire new CNS team with 120 sales reps. So-
Yeah. Yeah.
For now, we are good. Yeah.
Okay. My second question is on margins. So we, you know, we've been doing margin expansion year after year. You know, you've always indicated there's scope for, you know, margin expansion. Given the base we are, do you still think margin can continue to improve for Torrent, you know, going forward?
... Yeah, I think, I think, as we guide every quarter or every year, that there is a potential for the margin to improve between 50 basis points to 100 basis points, depending upon how the branded segment and generic segment perform.
Mm-hmm.
I think positive I see in this year, which is FY25, is I think U.S. should contribute in a positive way, both to the top line and bottom line. So I think at this point in time, yeah, I mean, the margin expansion, at least between 50-100 basis point, is definitely possible. That's what I believe.
This margin expansion that we've seen in FY24 has come from all businesses? I mean, India, of course, would have expanded, but outside of India, is it fair to assume that, you know, Brazil, Germany, and US have also seen margin expansion?
I would say so.
Understood. And last... I'm sorry, one last question. You know, thoughts on, M&A, your name keeps cropping up in, in quite a few deals. So, you know, and I also thought, obviously, the enabling, approval for one race. So, you know, now that Curatio is absorbed, you've, you know, sort of ramped up that acquisition. You know, how, how should we think about, M&A going forward?
I think, Neha, as far as the equity issuance resolution is concerned, it's an enabling resolution.
Right.
which we take every year
Right.
-for INR 5,000 crore, so that we have the preparedness in case something is happening, right?
Right.
But so far, nothing. I mean, that resolution has not been used so far.
Sure.
So that's number one. I think point number two, at this point in time, there's no proposal which I can say-
Mm.
which is in the pipeline, which we have been evaluating.
Okay. Okay. In either of your markets, India, outside India?
Oh, yeah, at this point in time, no.
Okay, got it. That's very helpful. Thank you so much, Sanjay.
Thank you. Participants, to ask a question, you may press star and one on your touchtone telephones. We have the next question from the line of Tushar from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. So just on Shelcal, in particular, at least AIC number not reflecting or maybe it's reflecting 8%-10%. So, is it that because even if it is OTC, it would be sort of picked up from the, chemist shop. So, so just trying to understand, you know, why that growth is not being reflected in the IS or XD?
I said this in the previous call, that, given that some part of the sales shifts to OTC stockists, they don't get reflected in the AIOCD or IQVIA panel. And this is a normal phenomenon in either OTC brands or brands that have been switched. So because of that, the growth reflection wouldn't always reflect what the actual performance is like. We can just guide you that in the internal numbers, Shelcal 500 growth for the year was in the high teens.
Understood. The overall OTC, if you could share how much of the business and how much it is, it sort of crossed around the low digits, it has gone to nominal growth, but how much would be the OTC business now for full?
So we, we're not looking at it separately, because, we have still continued, some of the brands in the prescription side as well. So we haven't separated the whole OTC basket into a separate division or separate entity. We look at it still as a, a combined, sales contribution in Rx plus OTC. It's just that the spends are looked at separately. So we're, we're investing in consumer plus the prescription spend as well.
Okay. And so secondly, on Germany, like, so there has been good amount of tender wins that have happened over the past, you know, 9-10 months. But is it safe to understand that FY 2024 growth doesn't reflect the tender wins, and you should be able to grow much better than FY 2024 in Germany business for 2025?
Can you repeat the question again, please?
This is with respect to Germany business, where we had good number of tender wins over the past, you know, 3-4 quarters.
Right.
But the FY24 growth in constant currency about 8%. So safe to assume that FY25 will be much more better than the 24 in terms of growth for Germany business?
No, better, I don't know, but at least at the, to the same level, I can tell you that with the wins that we have in group, high single digit growth in Germany is, is a fairly safe assumption.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Shyam Srinivasan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening. Thank you for taking my question. Just the first one, trade generics. So how has the progress been in fiscal 2024 for trade generics? And just a related question, many of your peers have actually made a separate subsidiary of, trade generics. The words that one CEO used was agility and focus. So just want to understand what's happening in generally in the space in terms of, trade generics and what's our strategy there?
I would say overall it's been a pretty good year for our trade generics business. I don't recall the exact number, but the growth for that segment has been upwards of 20%. So, overall, it's been as per plan, and profitability-wise, it's also quite... It is doing, let's say, decently well compared to what we anticipated earlier. That's because we've been focusing on brands which have been shifted from the RX side to the trade generic side, so there is an inherent kind of demand that's being capitalized on further. In terms of shifting to separate entities, we don't have any plans to do so right now. I think, for that, we would probably want to be at a much bigger scale than we are right now.
We had also mentioned this earlier, that we don't anticipate this to be a larger segment of the overall business compared to the current scale, which is at 2.5%-3%. We think this high growth should continue for at least this financial year and maybe the next financial year, after which it should start tapering down.
Aman, just on the market, just the fact that why are some of these companies attempting to do a subsidiary? It's just a scale point, or you think you are seeing competitive intensity in this space too?
Well, that would be hard to comment on, but obviously, other companies have been looking at this space aggressively as well, and which way each company has been approaching it may be different, but can't comment on why that could have happened in other companies' cases.
Yeah, sorry. The last question on this trade generic. There was this notion that, you know, trade generics may tend to impact acute volumes more, and which is why IPM volumes have been generally weaker. But what stops even chronic volumes to also be impacted by trade generics? Is there any impediment that prevents even chronic volumes to start moving towards trade generics?
Yeah, we have tried it ourselves, and we've struggled to gain any traction, so we haven't added many more products in the chronic space. There could be various reasons for that. One is generally that acute is a very short-lived prescription, so every time there is a new acute patient, there would be a new need for a new product or a new brand, and that's where your chance of that change is higher. But overall, in the chronic space, we still believe that it's difficult to get higher share of generics. In that sense, I don't see the IPM getting impacted, you know, in the chronic space because of trade generics. We continue to believe that all the segments will have their own space.
Trade generics will grow at its pace, branded will grow at its pace, and that's been playing out in our case, and we've been seeing that in the market numbers. I think, this year's April data at least shows as well, that, you know, there isn't really any, that kind of impact on branded volumes because of trade generics.
And so my last question is on the US business. Opening remarks, I think, Sudhir mentioned that, you know, we are foreseeing growth in the US after many, many years of decline. So what are the drivers of it? Is it new launches? Is it lower price erosion? You know, and general outlook on the US business in terms of a medium to longer term, how committed are we to maintain and/or sustain and maybe grow this business also? Thank you.
Thank you. So firstly, the reason for why we anticipate growth is we expect about 8 on-time approvals this coming year. So depending upon what products get approved, we expect a positive revenue momentum. So out of the 8, the first one is already launched. There are 7 more, depending upon which month, et cetera, they get approved. We think they can, at least 3, 4 of them can generate material revenues, at this, for us. And in terms of US business, we remain committed. We are not disproportionately committed to the US business. It's one of the 4 growth drivers that we have, along with India, Germany, and Brazil. But we have no plans of decreasing our commitment to the US market. On the contrary, we are looking at ways because our plants have been cleared, except for Indrad.
All other plants are FDA cleared right now, so they all have no action indicated. So, I think, and our pipeline and external business development efforts are ramping up. So, I think, over the medium term, we would anticipate a business of, say, $250 million-$300 million, if, you know, as new product launches come in. So, we prioritize it along with our... I mean, India is of course our top priority, but Brazil, Germany, and the US are on equal footing. So no plans to scale down.
Thank you. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, if you wish to ask questions, you may press star and one on your touchtone telephones at this time. We have the next question from the line of Harsh Bhatia from Bandhan Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Good evening. Am I audible?
Yes, yes.
Yeah. Thanks. Just two quick ones. One, if at all, that's possible for the Brazil, in terms of the constant currency growth, the 12%-13% that we've reported in this year, is there a way to sort of split that into, let's say, pricing versus volume or anything that's possible for us to understand, how that market is progressing? Because the new introductions or the new product launches would be a substantial part of the growth over there, given how the market is behaving. So anything in that aspect?
Yeah, yeah. Good call. One second. I can give it to you. So for Brazil, in terms of, price volume growth, would be, price growth would be about 4%, new products will be about 2%, and the rest would be volume growth.
... Okay. Okay, and you mentioned in your previous comments that Brazil, Brazil should possibly do sort of a 14%-15% growth, if I'm not wrong, in FY25.
Correct, correct.
Okay. And lastly, in terms of the margins, just to sort of better understand the 50-100 bps potential. I think the last quarter you made a comment that Brazil operating leverage in Brazil is higher as compared to the India potential to that extent. So if you could tier it or bucket it categorically, we'll better understand that margin improvement, also keeping in mind the OTC part of the India business, how important that is once it scales up to a certain level.
I understand that these are already large products to that extent, and you might be adding more and more products, but I'm just trying to understand that margin movement, if at all, and that OTC is an important part, or you still feel that a large part of it continues to be the Brazil division.
Yeah, I'll take that question. So I think from a margin improvement perspective or guidance, which we've given 50-100 basis points, assumes all the incremental spend, which we are planning for FY25 for the consumer health segment. So that's point number one. I think point number two, when we say 50-100 basis point, it's a mix of basically, price increases, which are taken across all these branded generic segments, and certain amount of operating leverage, which plays out both in terms of generic markets as well as, the branded markets. And add to that, if the new product starts flowing in, in the US, that should also have a positive impact on the overall profitability. So I think combined all, we feel that 50-100 basis point is somewhere we should be able to demonstrate margin improvement.
So, if I may, the OTC margins as such are going to be more or less stable because of the incremental investments. So that will not be a part of this overall bucketing, as such, or at least would be one of the last criteria because of the investment made, to that extent.
Yeah, the only problem is, you know, we are not tracking OTC margins separately, because these products which we have selected for the consumer health segment are the ones which are there on the prescription platform as well, right? So as Aman said in this call before, is that expenses is something which we keep on looking at. And the way we track is that wherever we run the programs on these brands from a consumer health segment perspective, we try and compare the growth in these regions versus the other regions where the program is not done, and there we see positive outcomes which are visible. And therefore, we feel that the spend is becoming more effective as we go on even for FY 25.
And therefore, whatever we've planned in terms of incremental investment on those 4 or 5 brands which we spoke about, after considering those incremental investments, we still feel that there's room for the margin to improve by 50-100 basis points.
Sure. Thank you. I'll turn back.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask questions, you may please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead. Gagan, the line for you has been unmuted. You may proceed with your question. Gagan, if you're speaking, you are not audible at the moment.
Am I audible now?
Yes.
Can you hear me?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So, question around gross debt. Can you enumerate the gross debt number? And also, how should we think of debt reduction for the coming year and thereafter?
Yeah, I think the gross debt at a consolidated level was INR 3,900 crores. I think the way to look at is that, at least for FY25, we should have a similar run rate in terms of repayments what we had in FY24, which is roughly INR 1,300 crores. So maybe INR 1,300 crores-INR 1,500 crores is something which is possible. We'll see if something additional is possible based on the cash flow generation and, achievement, which we have, for FY25, but that's the minimum I think we should take into consideration.
Right. And the second question is around the tax rate. If you could guide us for the tax rates in the next couple of years as well.
So I think, for FY25, we should be around 30%. Okay?
Okay.
And come FY26, we should start getting into the new tax regime. That may happen maybe a quarter, a quarter or two quarters in FY26. And, so therefore, FY26, I can take a mix of 30 and 25, and should land up somewhere on a full year basis at 27% is what I feel today.
Okay. And would a softening in API prices have helped gross margin in FY24, and if so, to what extent?
No, I think, from our portfolio perspective, when I look at the overall COGS per pill, I don't see a major movement in terms of either the API prices going up or falling down substantially, I would say. So it's a normal, increase or decrease, which we see in some pockets of API purchases, but nothing significant to really say that that's one of the cause for improvement in margins. I think the second thing what we've done is, in order to become more cost efficient from a Germany portfolio perspective, there's a good amount of work, which has been done in terms of reengineering certain processes and looking at alternate API, which has played out from a Germany business perspective. But I think on an overall basis, I won't say it's a significant contributor.
The current sort of sharp spike in freight costs and transit times, you know, around Red Sea, do you foresee any impact from that on?
Yeah. So we have seen an impact coming in quarter four. So my freight expenses have gone up by around INR 10 crore compared to quarter three.
Okay. Does the increased transit time impact your working capital also?
No, not really. In fact, I think, FY24, the underlying working capital has come down from 110 days to 90 days.
Yeah. So final question, the OTC policy is expected to be notified, you know, fairly shortly, if I understand it correctly. How do you see this, I mean, sort of, you know, leading to an evolution in the India business, for Torrent specifically, and generally in the market, in terms of, you know, offering you new, newer distribution channels, and perhaps, you know, channels with a different business economics?
Yeah. So, it's unclear yet, you know, what form or final shape it would take, but, any such policy, if implemented, would provide an opportunity for, brands which are, categorized as OTC to increase their reach. So we would obviously be able to capitalize on that.
But, do you see it making, you know, or causing a marked benefit to your India portfolio? Or you think it's a development which might on the margin help but not push or move the needle?
It may not move the needle that much. It'll help, I mean, incrementally, but we don't see it changing that much of operational... I mean, no significant impact, I would say.
Right. Thanks. And on the U.S. pricing environment, do you foresee the next year also to be benign?
It's hard to say. It's too far away. I think it's never, never benign. It might be a temporary high. The buyers are always looking for an incremental saving, so the habits are ingrained.
Okay. Thanks. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you. Participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Punit Pujara from Helios. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. So out of this INR 10,700 crore revenue that you clocked this year, what is the share of branded generics market, put together as a whole?
Around 73%.
Sure. And in the rest of the world market, in past, you have highlighted that there are seven key markets where you have been focusing. So could you just update about the strategic outlook and the kind of growth that you are expecting in this market? Because I think it's a while since you spoke on this specific rest of the world market.
So I think historically, this, the seven markets which you're talking about, has been registering 12%-13% growth. Right?
Mm-hmm.
Probably last year, the growth was a little lower, because of certain countries having political issues, economic crisis, and so on and so forth. But I think things are now settling down, and I think the outlook for that market should be 12%-13% growth continuing over the next 2-3 years.
Sure. And a very quick one: what is the revenue from the rest of the world market for the year?
So those seven markets you're talking about, right? I mean, which is Philippines, Malaysia, Nepal and all, right? I mean-
I, I meant for the ROW markets as a whole, which, which we used to report earlier as a, as a separate line item.
Right. So I think that's around INR 85 million, I would say. INR 85 million. Yeah, INR 85 million around.
Sure. Sure. That answers my question. I'll join back with you.
Sure.
... Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you may press star and one. The next question comes from the line of Dhawal Khut from Jefferies . Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. You are increasingly sounding bullish towards your US business, so will that entail some increase in R&D? What's the outlook for R&D? And, out of the total R&D ballpark, how much is towards US?
No, I think that's the wrong impression which you got, that we are very bullish on U.S. business. I think, I think from our perspective, we wanted to at least make U.S. business profitable, right? I mean, that's the journey or objective which we have taken over the next 2-3 years. And how it helps is that since the plans are clear and there's some amount of pipeline which we see playing out over the next 2-3 years, what we meant is the growth momentum should start, as far as U.S. is concerned. And within this pipeline or approval, which is going to flow over the next 2-3 years, we feel there could be an opportunity to make reasonable amount of revenues and profits, in terms of those products getting approved on time.
So therefore, the US, which has been negative so far, will start contributing positively to the overall top line and bottom line. For example, if you look at quarter four, our overall growth is 10%. Ex of US, the growth is around 12%. So, so at least the US, which has been contributing negatively, at least from FY 2025, we should see a positive momentum and therefore a better growth on an overall basis. So that's, that's, that's something which, we were trying to convey.
Okay. And on India business, you know, top players, you know, large players in India, they are increasingly moving towards, you know, differentiated products like, launching in-licensed patented product, launching biosimilars. So, can you subjectively give some, you know, initiatives that we are, we are taking, and what's in our pipeline, you know, in terms of, differentiated products, niche products, which, which you know, which can stand out in India market?
I mean, most of the business is driven with the patent expiration pipeline, where we have been in the top three ranks in almost every launch in the last two years, and that's been really our focus on maximizing market share. In terms of differentiated products, we have also been looking at licensing. Last one year, we've had two deals, both in the chronic space. Both are doing quite well. We continue to look at more licensing deals and should hope to close at least one in the next coming quarters. So our focus remains the same. That our the biggest kind of growth initiative is to maximize market share in the patent expiration launches, and they should be aided by these licensing deals or licensed products.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the follow-up. Am I audible?
Yeah.
Yeah. So for the U.S. business, is it possible to sort of help us understand, you know, at what sales run rate do you foresee turning around? And secondly, you know, at optimum levels, what sort of a margin, when you break optimal profitability, what sort of margin swing on an overall basis it can, I mean, it can contribute to?
Gagan, I think at this point in time, the US business is very small for us, right? I mean, so all the efforts are being made to see that at least the base starts increasing. So at this point in time, if you ask me all these questions, it's very difficult for us to really tell you at what point it will be profitable, what is the margin we are aiming at. I think the immediate objective over the next two to three years is to see, I think, post all the expenses, we get into a positive zone as far as US is concerned. Now, that can happen in two years, it can happen in three years.
Maybe at some point where we see positive momentum happening for the US, that would be the right time to talk about those accelerations and when and what margin profile we are looking at based on the pipeline which we are developing.
Okay. And you indicated that over the medium term, you know, you aspire to go to $250 million-$300 million. When you say medium term, is it possible to enumerate it? I mean, what's the timeline for this?
Yeah, yeah. Sure. It, I mean, a lot depends upon new launches, right? So in my mind is we're talking about three to five years time horizon.
Okay, thank you. Thanks. Thank you. I'll get back to you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dheeresh Pathak from WhiteOak Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. This new OTC policy, whichever form or shape it is currently, I'm sure you will have been consulted and given your feedback. So if you can just share, like, what, what are the key salient points or features that are expected to or are being discussed in this OTC policy?
... No, I mean, it's out in the public domain, so I think, whatever has been, the intention is to ensure that OTC brands, firstly are safe, and only the safe products and safe brands are available for patients or consumers without a prescription. And the other is obviously, how can these products reach as many patients or consumers as much as possible? And, I mean, in looking at the other markets that we operate, there are other channels that usually are involved in OTC, which are non-chemist, but, I mean, in our case, the brand that we're looking at doesn't. They don't really need that additional push because they're predominantly in the chemist channel.
So in our case, while we are optimistic that the OTC policy should be beneficial for us and the overall industry as well, it should be an incremental impact and not a significant change.
In your current India portfolio, what is it that we, Shelcal is ATC or Shelcal is non-ATC, I think?
We classify our consumer brands, which are four of them, so Shelcal, being one, Tedibar, being another, Ahaglow and Unienzyme, these four.
These would make up what percentage of the India revenue?
It's how much? So Shelcal plus Tedibar plus, roughly about what... We don't have a exact number, but maybe-
About half.
10%-15%, so between that, I would say.
Okay. So based on what you just explained about the policy, doesn't seem to be like anything meaningful, either positive or negative, for at least our portfolio in a way, right? Because you are already promoting it through whatever it is. And as you explained, I at least didn't get the impression that it is either positive or negative, significantly, right?
It's hard to say. We'll have to wait for the policy to be finally—I mean, in its final form, whatever the benefits are, we'll have to take a look. But as of now, it's hard to comment on how to quantify the impact.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta, Executive Director of International Business, for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Lauren. To conclude, I'd just like to say that we continue with our business focus on deepening our presence in the branded generic market, as well as continuing to grow in Germany and trying to return to profitable growth in the U.S. Thank you for your interest and your participation in the call today. Bye.
Thank you. On behalf of Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.