Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Q3 FY 2025 Earnings Conference Call of Torrent Pharma. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an option for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sudhir Menon, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director, Finance. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening and welcome to the Third Quarter Earnings Call for FY 2025. We continue to see strong performance in our branded market, which accounted for 76% of the overall revenue this quarter. India business growth for quarter three was 12%, and on a YTD December basis, the growth is 13%. This quarter has the cost of 200 MRs , which we've added, and on a YTD December basis, we've added the 500 MRs . Brazil constant currency growth for the quarter is 10%, and on a YTD December basis, it's 12%. Brazil currency depreciation impact for this quarter is around 17%. Germany grew at 4% this quarter, and YTD December, it's grown at 7%. We continue to win incremental tenders quarter on quarter, giving visibility on a high single-digit growth for the future period. Insulin revenue during the quarter is nil.
As guided in the previous quarter, the facility was released for manufacturing in December, and dispatches are coming from January 2025. We should see some amount of spillover in the next quarter revenues. Coming to the key financial highlights for the quarter, revenues were INR 2,809 crores, up by 3%, and on a YTD December basis, it's 7%. Operating EBITDA was INR 914 crores, up by 5%, and operating EBITDA margins have sustained at 32.5%. Insulin, which is a temporary impact this quarter, the revenue growth impact is 2%. BRL depreciation impact for the quarter on the top line is 2%. Normalizing for both the underlying revenue growth for the quarter is 7%, and operating EBITDA growth is 12%. While insulin impact, along with some spillover over quarter three and quarter four, will come back, we expect BRL depreciation impact to continue for a couple of quarters more.
The board today has recommended an interim dividend of INR 26 per equity share, or 520% of the face value. I'll now hand over the call to Aman for India business.
Thank you, Sudhir. India revenue at INR 1,581 crores registered a growth of 12%. As per the AIOCD secondary market data, IPM growth for the quarter was 8%. Chronic business grew at 14%, which is the IPM growth of 10%, driven by outperformance in cardiac, diabetes, and gastro divisions. Cardiac, which is our largest business contributor, has grown by 16% during the quarter, which is a market growth of 10% due to the restructuring that was undertaken last year along with divisional expansion. We continue to see positive traction in the consumer health business. We've expanded our coverage to 75,000 from 72,000 outlets in Q2.
On a MAT basis, Torrent has 20 brands in the top 500 of the IPM, with 13 brands more than INR 100 crores sales, as of March 2024. Field force at the end of the quarter stands at 6,200 compared to 6,000 in Q2. We continue to be encouraged by the performance in the recently expanded divisions in headquarters. This expansion will help provide a platform for new launches and also increase our territorial reach and help us gain market share in previously untapped areas. We expect the India business to continue outperforming the market growth. Our focus during the year will be to continue improving our market share in focus therapies, new launches, improving field force productivity in the expanded divisions, and continue the scale-up of the consumer health business. I'll now hand over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta for the international business.
Thanks, Aman. We'll start with the branded market of Brazil. Based on internal sales, Q3 constant currency revenue was near BRL 203 million, which is still a 10% year-on-year growth. As per IQVIA, market growth was 12% for Q3. Secondary sales for Torrent, as per IQVIA, also grew at 14%. During Q3, growth was aided by five recent launches, especially two drugs, ADHD drug, lisdexamfetamine, and a combination of rosuvastatin with ezetimibe. We have a rich pipeline of 20 molecules filed and waiting for ANVISA approval. Moving on to Germany, our Germany business registered a constant currency revenue of EUR 31 million, up by 4%. Higher growth in the tender segment was negated to some extent by setbacks in the OTC segment. During the quarter, we were incrementing new tenders, which will start delivering incremental sales from Q2 of next year.
For the last seven quarters, we've increased our overall value of wins in tenders. In the U.S., we registered constant currency revenues of $32 million, down by 3%, and on a flat quarter-to-quarter basis. Sequentially, the U.S. business has been delivering stable revenues. During the quarter, the U.S. FDA issued an EIR with a VAI classification for the manufacturing facility at Pithampur. I would like to conclude our opening comment here and open the floor up for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Damayanti Kerai from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. My question is regarding insulin CMO business. So you have started supplies again, and correct me if I'm wrong. You earlier mentioned the normal run rate for this segment is INR 75 crores-INR 80 crores per quarter, right?
That's right.
Okay. So in fourth quarter, do you expect full recovery to come in plus some spillover, or it will go back to the normal level of sales?
So there will be spillover. So over and above the run rate of INR 75 crores-INR 80 crores, there should be a significant spillover, which we'll see in quarter four.
Okay, okay. And this business revenue is largely passed on to EBITDA, right? It's a service business?
You're absolutely right because what happens is all the manufacturing is not happening. The manufacturing overhead will continue to get incurred. So if you see the P&L, the manufacturing expenses are coming, but the material margins are not coming.
Understood. My second question is on Brazil. So in constant currency, you maintain good growth and outpacing the overall market growth. But in view of the currency depreciation, should we assume similar trends to continue the way we have seen in second quarter, third quarter? And just want to confirm, fourth quarter is generally the largest quarter for you in Brazil, right? So whether that will play out this fiscal or because of currency, we might not see it?
So we expect past trends to continue. So you should expect a bigger fourth quarter as in all previous years. And there is a little bit of variation, right? Last quarter, the growth was 17%. This quarter is 10%. But IQVIA is a pretty good reflection at 14% of the underlying trend of the business. So about the currency, you would not see an impact in this fiscal year. But as you know, in Brazil, every year the prices get revised by the government, which is implemented in April. So I would be expecting a higher level of price increase allowed to us by the government, more in the close to the double-digit number as compared to middle or single digit in the last three, four years. So let's see what happens, but I would expect a price compensation from the government starting in April.
Okay. And my last question is if you can update us on your gross debt or net debt position as of December quarter?
I think on the net debt to EBITDA basis, we should be at 0.51.
0.51 Okay. Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one now. The next question is from the line of Sumit Gupta from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Thanks for the opportunity. So can you provide the split of volume price and news orders for the Indian market?
Yeah. Breakdown in AIOCD for the quarter is 12% growth for Torrent versus eight% of the market. That's broken up into 1.5% volume, 8% price, and 2.5% new products. And the volume of the market is close to zero.
Okay. And it will be 5%-6% in price, I suppose?
Yeah. I already mentioned 8% in price, and market is 5% in price.
Okay, okay. Understood. Understood, and sir, how many MRs are there at the end of Q3?
Q3, 6,200 MRs.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Neha Manpuria from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Aman, sorry, I couldn't hear your comment on the cardiac weakness and what's driving that and how we are trying to address that, so apologies, but if you could please repeat that for me.
Sorry. Question was about?
I think in the opening comments, you mentioned about some weakness in the cardiac segment and some restructuring there. I couldn't quite catch it.
No. In fact, it was quite the opposite. What we mentioned was that our cardiac growth was 16% versus 10%, and that's due to the restructuring and expansion that we did last year.
Okay, okay. Is there any other segment in India where you're seeing growth probably not in line with our expectation and therefore requires more work? And where exactly are we adding the 500 MRs that we've increased in this last year?
Yeah. I think compared to the trends from last year, the CNS market is a bit slow this year, maybe by 2%-3%. So our growth in CNS is higher than the market, but the market growth is definitely slower. But our overall performance is offset due to the stronger growth that we have seen in some of these other areas like gastro and cardiac and diabetes. These three have been really driving the growth for us this year. What was your other question?
The MR addition, which areas have we added the 500 MRs?
Which areas? Essentially in these three areas that I mentioned where we are seeing this higher traction of growth, which is our cardiac, diabetes, gastro. Some of the smaller areas where we are probably very low market share and just trying to get a higher share, it won't be too meaningful. But most of the additions are in these areas, which is essentially chronic and sub-chronic.
Understood. Okay. That's helpful. My second question, Sudhir, the BRL impact would probably have been there in the SG&A cost as well, right? Is that the reason why the SG&A cost has moderated quarter- on- quarter?
You're right. One of the factors is BRL depreciation.
Is there anything else? And how much of it was the decline in the BRL, and is there any other factor you'd like to highlight?
Yeah. Okay. Let me give you some data points, actually. So quarter one, it just recorded INR 20 crores which we had guided on. The other expenses were INR 690 crores, and quarter two, INR 729 crores, which had some amount of one-off, smaller one. So if you average out quarter one and quarter two, we are talking about INR 705 crores average, against which we've done INR 673 crores this quarter, of which the BRL depreciation impact is roughly INR 10-INR 11 crores.
Okay.
The second item is there is a savings in manufacturing costs which we have seen to the extent of INR 10 crores. And that's something which was anticipated, I would say, because in winter, the energy consumption on HVAC goes down, right? I mean.
Okay, okay.
That's the second factor. The third factor is there's some amount of efficiency which we got in trade expenses versus quarter two, quarter one. And that's to the tune of maybe INR 6 crores-INR 7 crores, I would say. And the rest, which is maybe INR 6 crores-INR 7 crores, is lower sales and marketing expenses, which were planned basically for quarter three.
This INR 10 crores-INR 11 crores, given the currency continues where it is, will probably even continue in the next quarter, at least till the time currency versus.
I would think so.
Okay. Understood. Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Tushar Manudhane from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. So for U.S. sales, they've been pretty stable. In fact, while we continue to get few approvals, but there has been not so meaningful pickup despite the regulatory clearance now in place for quite some time. So if you would just throw some light in terms of the outlook for U.S. business.
Outlook at this right now, it will be a slow pickup because the ANDAs that we have filed have become old, right, so the new filings in the last few years have been low single-digit, so the launches that we've had have been low single-digit, and that offsets the price decreases that we've been facing, but it doesn't lead to meaningful growth, so I don't expect the picture to change in the short term, so it will take some time before the new filings are meaningful enough to have an impact.
Understood. And so what's the gross margin for this Insulin business, approximately?
Tushar, that's something which we've not shared earlier. But on an overall basis, if you see the gross margin for the company has been 76% versus 76.6% in quarter two, right? So there is some amount of impact both because of the BRL depreciation and probably the Insulin business.
Or, I mean, interestingly, despite this business reducing, we've not seen the reduction in the gross margin, or that is getting sort of more than offset by the other segment. How do you think about it?
Yeah. I mean, if you see the contribution of the branded businesses has gone up, right? So it's almost at 76%. And that's aiding us to sustain the gross margin at 76%.
And lastly, sir, if you could share now. It's been quite some time there, and in fact, the traction has been very positive for consumer health business. So if you could share what kind of revenues we are getting from this on a quarterly basis in terms of price volume, if at all you can further break down.
So the contribution remains in the similar range as the earlier quarters. It's not a business that can have much variation in such a short period of time. I think somewhere between 10%- 15% of total India business is what I believe should be the broad four, five brands' contribution in the consumer business. It's a question of how much are we investing right now and how much positive traction are we seeing in each individual brand. Some of them didn't show much positive traction, so we slowed down the spending. Some brands are showing higher traction, so we're increasing spending. So the net spend remains pretty much in the same level. And YTD basis of consumer spending has been, I would say, higher than last year by some amount. And I think it should continue to increase next year as well.
Got it. Thank you. That's it, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abdulkader Puranwala from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. So just first on the Brazil revenues, in the past, you talked about some constant currency growth of a mid-teen kind of range. And then we had one or two product approvals also. So in Brazil, if you could help us understand what is the base business growth, excluding the launches what you have done in the recent past?
Generally, what we've guided is that Brazil is intrinsically a double-digit market, right? So now what varies is the price increase. Volume increases are pretty low on the base increase, right? When I look at the India volume increases, it sounds kind of familiar to me from these markets also. Price increases are really dependent upon the government. So traditionally, it's been about 5% a year. And then new product launches, it varies. If you have a big launch that has a bigger impact, our general guidance is take market at 10%, take Torrent at mid-teen level.
Okay. Got it. And second is on the new tenders, what you expect to come in Q2 of next year, what should that translate in terms of growth for Germany? I mean, how should we look at Germany panning out for next year in terms of growth?
Correct. Correct. So I mean, the Germany, the tenders have a two-year shelf life. So you actually have a pretty high degree of visibility on the tender business, right? And you've seen that I think last year, quarter three, we did 30%. This year, we did 32%. So yeah, so it's on an uptick and will continue. But it should not be offset by other businesses with OTC products. So we are trying to improve that, and hopefully, it will be cumulative growth on both these segments.
Got it. This is just the final one on India and Brazil. I mean, considering the GLP products which are going off patent in both of these markets on March 26, what is the launch strategy here? Are we going to be among the first two waves of launches? Have we already started filing those products in those markets, or will we wait for the market formation to happen and then decide the strategy?
Our plan is to be there on day one of launch in GLP-1. Cannot comment on anything further at this stage, but that's certainly the endeavor. That's for India and for Brazil.
Similar.
Yeah. Similar.
Got it. So thank you, and I'll get back in with you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Damayanti Kerai from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So my question is regarding India market. So obviously, you continue to outpace the market growth. But according to you, why are we seeing this muted volume trend in market for a prolonged period of time? And how do you see this moving up in coming periods?
It's difficult to comment on anything specific at the moment. I think the general chronic market where our focus and investments have gone in has not really seen that kind of slowdown. So our kind of view on the other segments would not be fair to make at this stage because we don't understand it as much. But the segments we are present in, we are not really seeing that kind of an impact. YTD, if you see the reported growth of Torrent is 13% for the India business, 12% for this quarter. So obviously, without the volume growth for the market by YTD, we would not have been able to grow either. So while our performance has been aided by new launch performance as well, generally in this segment, we have not seen that much of an impact on the market volumes.
Sure. And my last question is tax and interest expense during the quarter, third quarter where, I guess, less than the previous quarter, etc. So are these other new base or how should we look at tax rate and interest expense in coming quarters?
Definitely tax, not tax. The interest will keep on going down quarter on quarter because repayments are happening, right?
Okay.
So that's something which will continue. And what we believe is probably next year or extending it by another two quarters next to next year, we should be net cash. So you will see a good amount of repayments happening over the next few quarters. So interest expenses will keep on going down, okay? As far as tax is concerned, from next year, we are entering into the new tax regime, which would mean overall effective tax rate of 25% for us from now on.
Starting 26, right?
FY 2026, yeah.
Okay. And just on the debt reduction part, so you will be cash positive most likely in the second half of FY 2026 with more repayments happening?
Not FY 2026. I said FY 2027.
Okay.
First half.
First half.
That's something which I'm stretching, right? I mean, so I think I should be there.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir. On the markets, the RoW markets, we've had a reasonably flat number of close to INR 300 crores for the last few quarters now. How should we think about the growth outlook for this piece?
Generally, you should think about annualized growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percentage. This is the standard trend, but it's a wide mix of markets with different trends, and we are trying to kind of prioritize a few of them to make them into a bigger possibility, so I think you will see some parts of these do well on a sustainable basis, and then the growth to be more in the double-digit range than some quarters where we are experiencing single digits, so more to come here, but I think that's all I can disclose at this point in time,
And just to add, I think some countries have a much higher growth rate in double- digits or teens as well. It's because it gets offset by occasional loss of tenders in some other region.
So that's why it ends up being in the high single digit, low double digit. But the endeavor is to create a more higher concentration on the higher growth markets over the next two, three years.
And secondly, you touched upon this India and Brazil GLP-1 launches. But I mean, forget in terms of keeping aside what we intend to do in the markets, what is your take on I mean, how does a broader GLP-1 market really shape up in India and Brazil? How has the open market formation? Do you see it as being a seriously large opportunity for all the players involved? Or there could be some negative surprises here?
I think in India, historically, the GLP-1 market has not been very big compared to some of the regulated markets. It's been much smaller. But we believe this upcoming wave will probably be on the higher side and larger offtake compared to the past historical brand launches or recent other GLP-1s. I think the acceptance probably will be on the higher side within the, for the Indian population as well. Probably a much bigger opportunity than the earlier GLP-1s, but how much to size right now is very hard to say. We are quite optimistic on this space and will be looking for a reasonably significant share in this as well.
Lastly, sir, what is the normalized level for this Insulin business on an annualized basis?
Revenues per quarter should be INR 75 crores-INR 80 crores, is what I had earlier mentioned. Quarter four will be a little higher because of the spillovers which are going to happen.
Okay, but in the past, we used to report close to INR 150 odd crores in this business. There is more to it than the insulin part in this business?
It's around INR 300 crores on an annualized basis, Nitin .
Okay, so basically, whatever that you report in others, we knock off on annualized. This is INR 300 crores from here. That's all is RoW sales.
Yeah.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Agrawal from Citig roup. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the question. My question is related to the broader picture on margins. In this quarter, we have seen impact of different factors like insulin, currency etc. So it would be helpful if you can give some color on how to look at the overall margins in fourth year as well as the next year. And some of these factors that impacted this quarter might get reversed. Thank you.
Yeah. Vivek, the only thing I can say is that if the real depreciation hadn't happened this quarter, the margin should have been higher than 32.5%, which we've reported. And therefore, I think from a quarter four perspective, I still feel that 32.5% is something which we can maintain, okay?
On a full year basis, that would mean that last year, I think the operating EBITDA was 31.4, and this year we should close at around 32.5, I would say. So 110 basis point improvement already done this year. So I don't expect much beyond this because that's been our earlier guidance that every year margins should go up between 50- 100 basis point, right? I think next year, I think I still believe because of the branded segments having significant contribution to the overall revenues, the margin improvement, which is 50- 100 basis point, should continue. I think this year, U.S. has been negative, but we expect some launches to happen next year as far as U.S. is concerned. So at least next year, that negative contribution which is coming this year from the U.S. should not be seen next year.
So all the more, I believe the margin improvement of 50-100 basis points should continue next year in spite of some reinvestment happening in the branded business, I would say.
Understood. That is very clear. And on GLP-1, actually, you have mentioned that you are confident of getting significant share in this space. So what makes you confident? If you can just clarify on this. Thank you.
So the endeavor is to match our current share in the overall diabetes and chronic care space, which has been increasing year- on- year. So if we are able to get a market share of a similar level which has been seen in the recent new launches, particularly in diabetes, that itself is a significant share. So the recent new launch performance gives us at least the comfort to have the ambition to have this share.
But as I mentioned, it's still early to comment on the size and the exact opportunity that's ahead of us. But the plans are definitely getting in place.
So is it fair to assume that the product is largely going to be prescribed by the diabetologists, cardiologists, diabetologists, etc., and the companies who have strong presence in this segment have a kind of size to them?
That would be the assumption, yes. It would be predominantly diabetes patients and those who consult, let's say, consulting physicians who also see diabetes patients. So it would be a similar segment to what we are covering right now.
Understood. And just last question again on GLP-1. In India, it will be required to conduct clinical trials before the final submission. So have you made that progress as far as the clinical trials, etc.? Thank you.
Yes, that's currently ongoing.
Okay. Thank you. It was helpful.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shyam Srinivasan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. Sudhir first one on your comments on the whole net cash in the next couple of years. So I want to understand what are the capital allocation priorities. We typically never reach where we announce an acquisition before. So this is historically, I'm saying. But just want to understand what are some of the priority areas for us in terms of allocating this capital. Yeah.
Srini, that's something which is work in progress. Maybe I can give you some color a couple of quarters down the line.
Sudhir, but just in terms of areas, I'm not asking for what transactions you're looking at, but I'm just saying what are the areas? Is it India? Is there any rank order of which geographies or therapy areas? Is there any non-India geographies you're looking at? So any broad directional color is what I'm asking.
So standard top priority always will be India, right? That's where we have the best track record and experience and the highest degree of comfort. Branded generic markets, generally, we've not been very active because the number of opportunities in our core markets have been few and far between. So like Brazil, for example, is very rare to have a transaction in that market. And Mexico has its own challenges. So I would say the prioritization is India, branded generics, and then of course, we are open to some opportunities in developed markets of Germany and the US also, in particular specified areas. So yeah, that is the prioritization.
Understood. And from an evaluation perspective, I think that's been one of the key pushbacks from your end to making these transactions. I know maybe it's early days on India overall market correction, but are you seeing assets or in your BD discussions, are you seeing transactions which are marked to market lower in terms of valuation and coming closer to where your payback periods could likely be?
No, Shyam. Currently, we are not seeing any such opportunity coming in.
Understood. All the best. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Madhav Marda from Fidelity Group. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just one question from my side. On GLP-1 for the India market, what could be our sort of supply chain strategy? Do we plan to make it in-house or will it be completely outsourced? Because at least what my basic understanding is that you need to get the API, then there is the formulation, then there's the assembly, fill, finish, etc. So there's quite a few steps. So do we plan to completely outsource everything or would we do something in-house? Thank you.
So the injectable GLP-1s would be partnered. The oral GLP-1s would be in-house. That's the current plan.
By partner, you mean it would be fully outsourced? The production, so we buy the finished unit and then we sell in the market. Is that right?
That's right. Yeah.
Okay. So just one follow-up. At least, again, very basic understanding of this space is that generally for injectables, it's better to have the production in-house because only then the margins are good. Otherwise, a lot of the margin is captured by the manufacturing partner. Is that the right understanding for injectable GLP-1s as well or not?
It's too speculative right now, I feel. But it's definitely not in that sense. It has to be remunerative for a partner like us as well. Otherwise, we would not be really able to spend on the investment in market shaping. So in that sense, it may not be similar to some of the past examples. But again, it's too early to comment on this right now.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Agrawal from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the follow-up question. Again, this is related to GLP-1. As the market has not formed yet, and if, let's say, post-commercialization, post-market formation, if there is a kind of negative surprise, right? So what do you think, basically? Whether it's going to be the demand side challenges or do you think it can be a supply side challenge?
Probably more on the demand side because it's uncertain right now what exactly the offtake will be like. Supply side, over time, at least our current view is that there may not be too much of a constraint. We believe there are a lot of investments going into this space within India and globally as well. So maybe initially, potentially there may be, but over a one-year, two-year period, that should not really be a constraint is what we believe. What the actual demand and offtake looks like, that is obviously still yet to be seen.
So in the initial one to two years, do you think that there may still be some kind of supply side concerns?
Less probability, but we can't rule it out.
Okay. Thank you. And just one more question. You have mentioned that you are making some kind of investments in the market formation. So can you just clarify what kind of investments you are making in market formation in the sales force, promotion, and what? Thank you.
As of now, it's again, we can't comment specifically on this, but if anyone like Torrent, for example, is to launch a product which is not there in the Indian market, it has to be more of an information dissemination and education exercise which has to take place, which whoever would be the first few players to launch would be undertaking that activity. So that's what's being referred to.
Understood. Thank you. And just a related question on Brazil. So compared to India, how do you think market formation in that particular market?
So Brazil, what has happened is that Novo has been supply constrained massively. So while the market is very big, I mean, I think we don't have the data on the current size of the market. It's hundreds of millions of dollars, but it's hard to estimate the size because the supply has been very tight.
So I can't really comment, but we would expect the volumes to increase substantially because there has been demand and a supply constraint in place since quite a few years.
Understood. Last question. So are you more optimistic on India or on Brazil for this particular product?
I'm optimistic on Brazil, and I'm not as optimistic on India. So hopefully.
Thank you. Best of luck. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anubhav Agarwal from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So I'm just continuing the discussion on GLP-1. So one question on India market. So which class of drug under diabetes would this largely displace? Will it be gliptin, which will get impacted?
It all depends on the pricing. What price point do the GLP-1s come in? But either way, it's going to be a large gap in the current price of therapy for, let's say, gliptins or SGLT2s and the GLP-1s that may come in the future. So it should not really be a significant dent on the existing OAD market because the price gap will just be too large.
Actually, that's what my second question was because most of the gliptins, even if you take the generic sitagliptin today, the tablet costs about INR 10 a day. A monthly cost would be about INR 150, let's say, twice a day. And unlikely that injection of GLP-1 will be available at less than INR 500. So that's the question. Was that what you were referring to as the demand issue that the price difference will be 5x of the other option?
I don't know about 5x, but certainly there will be a gap between the existing products on the market, the tablets especially, and the injections, for example, in GLP-1. So that obviously reduces your addressable market overall, though it's still a large-sized market when you look at diabetes plus obesity put together. So it's not that it completely rules out a segment. There's enough new patients that also can be added. And lower volumes of patients with a higher price means the market would still be large. That's assuming the offtake is of a significant level, which is, again, still too early to kind of give any clear view on at this stage.
Okay. Thank you very much. Very honest.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dheeresh Pathak from White Oak Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. The Insulin business gross margins are at company average, right?
No, it would be lower than the overall gross margins at the company level.
But like 5%-10% lower range would help.
Sorry, I can't comment on that. But it's definitely lower than the overall average.
Okay. And in the Brazil business, what is our net exposure? We'll have costs also in local currency. So can you share your net exposure and how you hedge it?
So I think as a policy, what we do is we hedge for the next 12 months. So it's basically a cash flow hedge, right? And therefore, the depreciation, the further depreciation happening, there's no impact on the cash, I would say. So it's basically the translation of the foreign currency financials to INR is where you see that impact coming in. But because of the hedging, there's a minor cost, I would say, because of the hedging cost versus hedging premium differences, I would say. So it's not impacting much on a cash basis, I would say.
Okay. So just to understand, what percentage of the revenue that you show in Brazil would have cost in local currency? Is it like 40%, 50% of that revenue would have local costs?
No. So I think as far as Brazil's COGS is concerned, that's entirely getting manufactured from India. So then when you consolidate accounts, it actually falls down to your INR cost as far as COGS is concerned. But since it's a marketing company, the middle line which is there is largely in local currency.
That would be roughly 40% at least of the revenue? The middle line?
Yeah. What I would tell you is maybe if you can go to our website and look at the Brazil financials of FY 2024, you'll get an idea as to what is the extent of local currency expenses which are happening.
Okay. And when you're reporting, you're reporting at the spot exchange rate, and the hedge gain or loss you're showing in other expenses, is that the accounting is working?
So different items are converted by using different exchange rates. For example, as far as the income statement is concerned, it's an average rate which is used for converting. The balance sheet, most of the items are converted at the closing rate. And something like share capital is converted at the original cost base.
The hedge gain would have shown in other expense, right? In other income or other expense? How do you show it? What I'm asking is, you book at spot or you book at the hedge rate when you show the revenue?
No, no, no, no, no, no. So hedge gains come by way of other income or other expenses. But quarter three, we have a forex gain, overall forex gain, not from BRL, but from other currencies which are part of other income.
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
So just a quick one on Brazil. Where are you on your approval process for some time? By when do you think your approval will come through?
So we expect to be there when the market opens up. But I won't be able to share further details with you.
What you expect to be? And this is what the market opening should be happening with the patent expiry in January, right? Or do you see a different time for that?
2026.
Yeah. January 2026?
Yeah. I'm not sure. March.
Okay. Around that time, basically. Q1 of basically first calendar quarter of 2026.
Correct.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one.
So please no further questions, please.
Yes, sir. We don't have anyone in the question queue. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta, Executive Director of International Business, for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you, everyone, for your interest in pharma. Wish you a good weekend. Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you. On behalf of Torrent Pharma, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.