Please note that this conference is been recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Shailesh from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah, thanks, Shailesh. Good afternoon, and thanks to everyone who have logged in into Automotive Axles' Q1 FY 25 Earnings Conference Call. Now, let me introduce you the management participating with us in today's earnings call. We have with us Mr. Nagaraja, President and Whole Time Director, Automotive Axles, Mr. S. Ranganathan, CFO, Automotive Axles, and Mr. Kishan Udupi, GM, Meritor India. I would now like to turn the call to Mr. Nagaraja for the opening remarks, followed by Q&A. Sir, you may begin now.
Thanks, Shailesh. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Nagaraja Gargeshwari, President and Whole Time Director of Automotive Axles Limited. I warmly welcome all of our investors and shareholders to this, quarter one FY 2024/2025 investors call. I have with me Mr. S. Ranganathan, who is the Chief Financial Officer of your company. Welcome, Ranga. We also have Mr. Kishan Udupi, who's the President and Whole Time Director for Meritor HVS India Private Limited, which is our sister concern.
Just now, we concluded our board meeting and updated the board of directors on your company's first quarter performance for the current financial year, and the board has been very appreciative of the progress that we have made in the last several years. What we would like to do now is Ranganathan will give you a quick update on the financial results, and then followed by question and answers. Thanks again for calling into this teleconference. Over to you, Ra nga.
Thank you, Nagaraja, and once again, a warm welcome to all the investors. The Q1 in 2024/25, we have overall income of INR 498 crore with you know operating margin of 29.8%. And as far as revenue is concerned, compared to the last quarter, we have de-grown by 7.4%. That's largely because of the MHCV market volumes. In operating margin overall basis, the core operating margin we kept intact and but operating margin, as per the sales, is also improved by 0.5%.
And our EBITDA is about 13.2% for the current quarter, compared to 13.5% same quarter last year. It's largely because of the volumes and it's an absorption impact on the financial results. Overall, you know, the cost and the margins are in line with our control limits, and we are waiting for the market to grow.
Once the market starts growing, I think our EBITDA margin will substantially improve. And we are also working on the long-term objective of how to maximize the shareholders' interest in improving the overall value to it. With this, a quick update for all of you for the financial business of the company, and I leave it to Shailesh to take it forward.
Yeah, Sunil, we can begin Q&As.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is on the line of Amit Hiranandani from SMIFS Limited. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, could you please explain the steps the company is taking to address segments, particularly in the rapidly expanding bus segment and construction equipment segment, and by when we can see some, you know, revenue flowing in from these segments?
Kishan?
Yeah, I can, I can take that question. Thank you. Thank you for the question. We already have pipeline for the two segments that you talked about. The first one being buses, which has been a gap in our product portfolio. We have now identified the product gap, and the new product, the new axle, is getting launched Q4 of this year.
And, and the second segment, the construction, we already have a product which is upgraded now to meet the high HP requirements of the industry. So specifically, the tippers, where we see high HP is becoming more popular, we have an upgraded product that is getting into SOP in Q3 and Q4, between Q3 and Q4. Thank you.
Do we have the confirmed orders for these buses and construction equipment segments?
Yes, we have.
Okay. Sir, additionally, we would appreciate, you know, if you could provide a general revenue breakdown among the axles, brakes, and others, because this information would greatly assist us in analyzing and modeling the company more effectively.
No, uh-
Take it up.
You know, as a matter of principle, generally, we don't say the... I think as we have mentioned it earlier also, that, you know, axles definitely play a significant role in the overall revenue share of our business. And brakes basically, you know, being the low-price products-
... Definitely, and also, we see it definitely as a very, compared to actual, it's very you know low in terms of the share. To be indicative, you know, brakes may somehow come to, come to about 10%-15% of the market share, total volume share, sorry.
Great. Good, good. And so lastly, are there any plans to release a five-year growth strategy for the company?
We are currently working on it. You know, we have our strategic, you know, initiative, which is set in about right from 2012 onwards. Every three years, we revise that. You know, we are currently working with the board for the, you know, strategy, and we will come back to you on this soon.
Great, sir. All the best. I'll come back in the queue. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone now. The next question is from the line of Pradip Rawat from Yogya Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, ma'am. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is regarding the demand outlook for M&HCV, both in domestic as well as in the global markets. Can you throw some light on that?
Yes, thank you, Pradeep. Yeah, thank you, Pradeep, for the question. So this year, we are seeing a big growth, about for almost like 5%, to the tune of 5%, and Q1, Q2 is where most of this will come in, and we are expecting Q3 and Q4 to perform better.
And going forward for the next year, we see the market may remain flat. It, there, there may not be big movement in terms of the volume, but we do expect a little bit of change in the product mix. And the global market, Europe, is flat, as we have seen it, and U.S. is also seeing some slowdown, but it is still within our forecasted volumes. Thank you.
Yeah. What would be the percentage revenue from export, particularly to U.S. and EU?
No, we have mentioned it in the earlier calls also. I know, export overall basis, it's more close to the double digits, and we are working on the long-term strategy how to improve on it.
Okay, understood. And, what is our capacity utilization?
Sorry?
Capacity utilization.
Capacity utilization?
Yes.
Okay. So for the current volumes, Nagaraja, you can correct me if I'm wrong, we are close to about 65%-70% level. 65% level is more or less is what I guess. It will fluctuate at this moment of time, volumes, this is 60%-70% level.
Yeah, you know, just to clarify on that, we are at 70%, you know, when you take it for the whole year, even it out, but there are always a particular months where our peak capacity is going, you know, all the way up to 80%-85%. So what we have been working on, like Ranga mentioned, we are working on a, like a medium-term and long-term strategy, five year strategy, how we can, you know, optimize our capacity utilization and also to balance out the overall capacity where to invest.
During the last investor call, we did mention that, you know, we are investing close to about INR 100 crore in, you know, update our lines, including the gear manufacturing and assembly. On average, we are about right about 68%-70% utilization.
Yeah. Okay, understood. What would be the sustainable margin or revenue growth that we can foresee for our company?
I'll see that if the capacity happens at 100%, and I think we can, for the whole year, we can go in for about around 13.
At the current-
But, of course, as we go on, you know, the long term, we are working on a plan how to maximize it, and we have various options. We are sorting it out. At this moment of time, if we do the capacity, you know, theoretically, though Nagaraja says it's around 68%-70%, and real time, it's probably we can utilize in because of the ratios and number of varieties of products, the mix of the products which we have, more or less, the time tested is about, you know, the utilization will be at 90%-92% level, you know, and so we need the peak.
At this, if we touch the peak, and probably we'll be touching about 13%, here and there. A marginal variation can be there, but more or less, you know, you can take it as 13%.
Okay, understood. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. The next question is on the line of Muskan Rastogi. Please go ahead.
Hello? ... Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I have few questions. In FY 25, are we expecting LCV industry to perform better than MHCV? And what is our LCV and bus mix in our product, so, portfolio?
Is that inaudible?
Yeah. So, thank you for the question. We don't play in the LCV core segment, so our products are typically 7.5 tons and above. And even though we have some feel for the LCV market, it's seen that LCV has growth potential, and there is no reason that I see whether it will outperform the M&HCV.
Coming back to the specific question on the bus, yes, today we have, we are present only in one specific model of bus, and with the new product launch that we are planning for Q4 this year, we are hoping to increase our market share in the bus with the other segment, which we are not present as well.
And add to that, on the ICV, we have a new brake that we are launching, so that also gives us opportunity to increase our market share beyond, beyond where we are in the brakes today. Thank you.
Okay. So sir, I'm asking 7 ton-15-ton and HCV above 16-ton mix.
Yes. So the 7 ton-19 ton or 15 ton, that space we have only few products, so we are not heavily present there. But the buses where we are talking about, that is a segment that is our core focus right now. But as far as the 7 ton-15 ton, the current product portfolio, the business that we have is comparatively less than you see 15 ton and above.
Okay, okay, sir. So in terms of product launches and axles, the company has planned to launch axles above 49 tons, also for 9m buses. When do you expect these launches? And who are the existing players in axles for buses, and what will be your USP in axles for buses?
Okay. So as I mentioned earlier, the launch is timing, the launch timing is between Q3 and Q4, and it is as per the time plan right now. And, the USPs will be specifically talking about the bus. It's a noise sensitive, you know, axle that we are launching, and also with the higher efficiency, which is more critical. And our axles are also EV ready, which means, the same mechanical axles can be used in buses where we have a central drive or remote mount configuration of motor, and our axles are capable to manage that duty cycle as well.
Okay, okay, sir. Are we seeing any competition in brakes business, and how many customers do we have in brakes as of now? And also, are we exporting anything in brakes? What are our key USP in brakes, if you could help me out with that?
Right. Coming to brakes, our predominant focus in the market also is in the drum brake segment. There are only two players. Other than that, there is the competition. So we have 40%-60% or 45%-55% market share, depending on specific models that we sell in the market. We are pursuing certain export opportunities in the brake because the brakes that we have in India are very unique for India. They are on heavy-duty application, which is different in other regions.
We do have this brake in our product portfolio, but the Indian market, the volumes are very small, and we are expecting it to be small for the next three years, foreseeable future. But we are ready when the market is up, and we can come up with a strategy for that as well.
Okay, okay, sir. And, another question, sir. In terms of a cost reduction measure, our focus was to improve material and conversion costs. What are the key initiatives that you are taking for the same, and when and how improvement, how much improvement are you expecting this year?
I'll take that. So, there are several ways we are looking at margin enhancement. So it could be like what Kishan mentioned, optimizing our product and then, also working with our supplier in terms of improving their productivity, their efficiency, going for light weighting of parts, and also enhance the manufacturing process and improve the yield. This is something we have been doing it for the last several years. In fact, we started off this initiative way back in 2012.
Every year, you know, as you can probably go back and look at our profit, you know, margin enhancement that has happened over the last several years, this is one initiative which is really kind of helping us, and this is a continuous process.
You know, as you, as Ranga mentioned, in spite of, you know, revenue drop, and then, you know, there is a, you know, a little bit, increase in our fixed cost, we are able to offset it, you know, through these, initiatives. So we have been continuously working on that, to answer your question, and then you are, you, you'll be seeing it in, our margin enhancement or margin sustenance, you know, activity.
Oh, okay, sir. So one last question. 2-3 years back, we laid out key growth plans, like entry into LCV, HCV, buses, segments, exports. Share of the business, increases, increased with customers. How has been the growth in these segments as compared to last three years? Also, in the next two, next two, what is our focus area to outperform the industry?
I'll probably take up the first portion, and then Ranga and Kishan, please feel free to do that. See, just about three or four years ago, just now Kishan touched upon, our brakes share of business was somewhere around 30%-35%. And as he said, as he mentioned, we have grown it up, you know, close to about 40%, and we have a plan to, you know, grow it up to 50%. Okay.
Sometimes it is little bit difficult for us to tell, you know, whether it is gonna happen in one year or two years, but our effort is continuously to increase our share of business, and we are doing it in multiple ways. Like Kishan mentioned, we are launching some new products, and which gives us a presence in the you know segment where currently we are not there. So this is the same thing for both brakes and axles. Ranga, do you want to add anything to that? No, I think really the product mix really you know plays a very important role.
And definitely we have, as Nagaraja was saying, we always try to market is not in our control. Nevertheless, the share of business is what we are currently focusing on with the long-term arrangement with our customers. We are totally focusing today on the quality and the delivery performance, because auto industry is more about the delivery on time, every time.
So that is the area we are constantly working on. It's always a challenge. You know, there is no kind of, milestone you can achieve overnight. So, that is one area we are consistently working on to make sure that, you know, our share of business is intact and ensure that we capitalize the maximum. That is one thing, and we have substantially improved over a period of time. That's how the last about 5, 6 years, you see that, you know, our consistent performance and focus on the cost, as well as the delivery, has really enhanced the profitability substantially.
We have come to a stage where we are looking at to take this organization to the next level. We are seriously working on, as, Kishan was saying, about the current, gaps in the product portfolios.
We are addressing it this year, and further, we are putting up a strategy to see that how you keep the, you know, customers happy with our new value addition of new products, as well as our automation of the, you know, our manufacturing process, to ensure that we delivery the products on time. So hopefully, you will definitely see a much more improvement in the share of business in overall business in the coming days.
Okay, sir. Sir, also one last question. Any update on on-highway, on off-highway vehicles axles, like any customer additions there?
Let me take that. The off-highway market in India, the space where we can play a role is relatively small compared to the rest of the world. When I say that, if you look at the peak for the off-highway market was around 2018, 2019 time, and the next peak we are expecting maybe in the one year or 12-18 months down the line, we will see the peak. In that high peak market, our addressable market is only about 40%.
When I say 40%, that's mainly because we are in the wheeled applications, and in India, off-highway is more moving towards the tracked application, where we do not have a presence even in the global market. We do have products. Some of them are in the pipeline, some of them are in the development stage, but we are really watching it closely, because there is also a possibility some of the off-highway may even move to EV.
So we are, you know, constantly monitoring the market, what is happening, and we are evaluating whether we have the right to play, considering there is a change in the segment and more and more, you know, tracked applications are becoming more popular in India. And only one segment where we see growth is the backhoes, and that is predominantly a backward, you know, vertically integrated to the OEM, which has the highest share of business today. So this is our view, and we are constantly monitoring that.
Okay, sir. Okay, thank you for answering my questions, and all the best.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. The next question is on the line of Sunil Kothari from Unique PMS. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Hi, so, this degrowth year-over-year of roughly 7%-8%. Hello?
Yes.
You said what, sir?
Yes, we are able to hear you. Go ahead.
Yeah, sir. So this first quarter degrowth compared to last year's first quarter is mainly what, volume degrowth or some price reduction because of lower material costs? If you can, say some detail.
No, see overall, and Kishan was saying the initial, you know, thing, the overall, you see the market last year is about 425,000 level. And as of today, at this financial year, 2023, 2024, 2025, we are expecting about 5%-6% down overall for the year. So when it comes to the, generally the first quarters, you know, the volumes are, we are seeing it's substantially low, and we expected to do well in the Q3 and Q4 to reach to the 400,000 vehicle level.
So what you see in this quarter may be this quarter, but overall for the year, we may, you know, in the last two quarters maybe go well. So, as far as your commodity prices are concerned, that's, it has a plan, but I don't think it's very significant, so that shows a big growth on the top line, so it's hardly about 1%.
Okay. So, sir, our major customer, so client has grown almost 10%-11% year-on-year this quarter, and we, we've grown 7.5%. So just trying to understand what if any market share we lost, or what is the change? Because we are very highly dependent on our client, that's why I'm trying to understand.
Yeah, I, yeah, I can take that. So your observation is right, and that is exactly why our product strategy is towards buses. So Ashok Leyland, our, you know, largest, customer, they have done exceptionally well in buses. They are the number one, when it comes to in the, in the bus segment. They have been, right? And that is where we, had a, you know, lower, share of business with them because of this product mix change.
And that is exactly where we are coming up with this new product launch in the Q1, Q4 of this year, which is again, where most of the, buses are expected to be, you know, in the market. So that's exactly what you have observed and what we are trying to fill the gap.
Okay. Sir, last question is, since long, we are now associates of, Cummins also at the parent level, so any change, any product range for, maybe development or exports or outsourcing? Anything do you see happening for us, because of Cummins, ownership now?
At this, I think, generally, I'd say that at this moment of time, as we mentioned in the previous call, the product lines are different. I think, Kishan can add more. We are working with the customers, along with Cummins, to see that, you know, some of the areas where we are not present and how to begin the journey with them. It's a very... It's not, it's a kind of long-haul journey, so, but definitely the, that collaboration, we are working together, but some of them is about may not come in the very short term. Kishan, you want to add something more? You can.
Yes. In addition to that, what Ranga said, we do not have the same product range, but there are complementing applications. So for example, a specific application, we can have a complete powertrain, diesel, transmission and axle, and see what value it brings to the end customer. Efficiency and all other, you know, application-related, duty cycle-related improvements that we can do as a whole system.
So that is something we are evaluating and working with, one or two OEMs on that. But like Ranga said, it's a long-stretch process. It is, it is, a combination of both the worlds that we are trying to bring together.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Deep Shah from YES SECURITIES (India) Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, just a clarification on the M&HCV industry growth rate that you had mentioned. I just missed it. So you said it's expected to be 5%-8% for FY 2025?
Yes. Compared to last year, we are expecting 5% lower volumes this year.
Okay, and the one question related to that is, since we are launching, you know, two to three products, somewhere in the second half of this financial year, let's say if industry expected to be less flat in FY 2026, what kind of an outperformance do we expect, because of the new launch, et cetera?
Yeah. With the launch of new products, we are trying to protect our vulnerability. For example, buses are expected to be more, because during the COVID we had a shortfall of buses and there are more bus than was expected, right? That is exactly why we want a product in that segment. Even on a flat volume, the product mix usually hurts us, and that is what we have seen in the previous quarter. And to be able to manage that is where the new products are coming in.
The second example is the ICV brakes, where we are not present today, but that's again, a product mix challenge. That's why we have selected that as a new product entry. Irrespective of what the volume is or how the market behaves, we should be able to have or protect our share of business with, even with that, product mix.
Okay. And sir, with the launch, especially on the bus side, that you just mentioned, which is expected to be somewhere in fourth quarter FY 2025, are we going to be, let's say, a 50% share of business from day one, or how it is going to be? If you can throw some light there.
It's going to be incremental, but our aspirational target is to reach at least 20%-30% over a period of 6-12 months. A lot of other things depend on that. It depends purely the segments, like, for example, if they are EVs, the tenders will be depending on the type of bus, and the number of buses will be again going back to whether 9m, 12m. Depending on that, we will have a right to play. More than anything, we will have a right to play with the products that we have.
Perfect, sir. Perfect. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question, press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. The next question is on the line of Pradeep Rawat from Yogya Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the, sorry, I just missed that. You, what are the revenue expectation that we are having from the new product that we are launching that is expected to launch in third or fourth quarter?
The launch in fourth quarter. Kishan, just a minute, sorry. I just give a preamble to it, and Kishan can add value. See, the product launch is going to happen definitely in terms of as a new product cycle. It may start with a very humble beginning, and hopefully it might get what Kishan says it can do well in the coming days, you know. And in terms of volume pricing with the, we are in the final stages of the pricing with customers, so indicatively, the volumes, Kishan can be able to indicate to you. Kishan.
Thanks a lot. Yeah. So, like Ranga said, the launch in Q4 and then ramp up. Depending on that, the full potential we will hit probably by Q2, Q3 of next year, probably by Q2. And current forecast for this segment of buses, it's about 1,500-2,500. Again, these are all tender-based, so which can change overnight. And we don't expect 100% share of business in this segment.
There is always competition, so we are displacing competition. So I would say about 30%-40% in that segment is what we are aiming for. And like Ranga said, based on the pricing that we check, the revenue will be equivalent of that.
Yes. So you are saying that the market size is INR 1,500-INR 2,500 crore, and you are targeting for a 30%-40% market share?
In this new product launch, which is around 1,500-2,500 buses, I'm talking about the current visibility of the tenders that is in pipeline, which is where all the OEMs will start participating.
Yeah. Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Ricky from Jain Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Can you throw some light on your capital expansion plans for FY 25 and FY26?
Nagaraja?
Yeah. So, is my understanding correct that you're looking at, you know, this year, this year and next year?
Yes, sir. True.
Yeah. Together, we'll be looking at close to about 100 crores plus, and we already gotten approval from the board. This is again, mainly we'll be investing in upgrading our housing value stream and also gear manufacturing. And these are the two areas where we'll, we'll be investing.
Okay, thank you. And anything related to defense products, what, which we have right now in our portfolio?
At this point of time, we don't need any additional investment in the defense product, because whatever the investment we are doing, you know, that can be leveraged for the, you know, all the products. So we are trying to make our line so flexible so that we should be able to utilize these new capacities or capabilities for the defense products as well.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. The next question is from the line of Amit Hiranandani from SMIFS Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, yeah, thank you for the opportunity again. So, most of the questions have been answered. Just one, wanted to understand the significant increase in the other income. What is the reason for this?
Okay. So I take this question. Amit, this, this is like this, you know, if you see the balance sheet, I know probably, you know, if you, the March also, we have substantial cash in hand, okay? We are trying to maximize the return on the surplus cash, and, that's how you see the increase year-on-year.
So this run rate is, will it sustain for the coming quarters as well?
It depends on the CapEx investment, right? So, so we are working on that. Nagaraja said we are working on about close to about INR 100 crore. Still we're not decided to, whether we have to borrow or use the internal surplus cash. So most likely, shortly we may take the call. But if the CapEx utilization is out of the cash, obviously the direction, you may not get the, you know, benefit of the top line.
Okay. So two more, bookkeeping questions. One is the exports growth for quarter one and the brakes business growth for the first quarter.
Export, see, export at this point of time, we are sustaining it at the same level as, as compared to last year, if I'm not mistaken. And, and what's the other question you said?
Brakes business, growth in the brakes business.
I think, Kishan is out there. Nagaraja is out there. That's it. Now, we are closer to 40% level, and we are working on a long-term strategy to be, you know, between 45%-48% level of, you know, market share. That's a long term. Today, we are close to about 37%-38% level of the market share, and that will continue for more time as the year, as we go along the strategy, we are working on a long-term strategy of getting around, you know, close to 50%, 48%-50% level.
So sir, when we say this, market share 40%, so this is for the M&HCV brakes. We are not yet present in the ICV segment.
Nagaraja?
Yeah, yeah. Mainly after M&HCV. Yeah. Yeah. So go ahead, sir, Kishan.
Yeah. Sorry, sorry about that. Yes, currently our, you know, the majority of our products, brake products, right, they are in M&HCV. So the new product, ICV brake, that, you know, we've been talking, that's where we are trying to gain the additional market share. And that is the market which is also seeing the growth. And our product is in the validation phase, and will be ready for launch in the next quarter.
Sir, lastly, are we doing something on the electric buses side? Anything, any new products?
We already have a you know axle which is being utilized for one particular you know vehicle segment, as Kishan mentioned. You know, the new product what we are going to launch in the Q4 that essentially will open up more opportunity for us for you know segments.
Okay, so we have one product already, productionized, you're saying?
Yeah.
Okay. Any more plans to, you know, expand? Because this is a hot segment and growing very fast, so...
Kishan, you'd want to take that?
Yeah. So coming to electric buses, if you really look at the current configuration and probably the OEM strategy is to stay with the central drive or remote mount, configuration, which means, all these configurations will need mechanical axles, which we currently are making, and the only difference being we are making it more EV-friendly for the duty cycles. So our axles are actually fuel-agnostic, so whether it's a CNG, LNG, diesel, petrol or electric, our axles are capable to manage all those duty cycles.
The new axle that we are launching is exactly with the same approach, where we want that to be more optimum and efficient for a EV application. Anyway, it will cover the diesel world as well.
Great, sir. Sir, lastly, if I can put in one question. Basically, wanted to understand the midterm growth outlook for the M&HCV industry, looking at the stable government policy. So FY 25, we already know that it's going to be flattish, but what would be the two, three years prospects for the industry, please?
Let me give you a perspective looking forward 3-4 years. Probably you see the question, I will take the question in a different way. When is our next peak? So probably the next peak will be around 3-4 years down the line.
The reason is, the trend in the market is to higher HP, higher tonnage vehicles, which means if you really look back, 2018 peak and today, with the lower number of vehicles, we are still managing the trucking, load carrying capacity. We are up at 8.7 trillion capacity at a 400,000 level market. So with the GDP and all other indicators, you know, being positive, we expect next 3-4 years, we will see the next peak for M&HCV.
Great, sir. All the best. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone now. The next question is on the line of Muskan Rastogi. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks again. Sir, I wanted to ask, like, revenue potential from the investment in... What's the revenue potential from investment in gears manufacturing? And what is the payback period that you're looking? Is this like differential gears?
Nagaraja?
Okay. So there are two things are there, like what just now I think Kishan was mentioning. We are kind of investing in two areas. One is obviously to enhance the or I would say that more like a technological upgrade, productivity improvement, which also gives us a kind of a capacity enhancement. What we are trying to do that is, you know, be ready for those peaks which Kishan was telling, next 3-4 years time.
So obviously, you know, when we go ahead and invest, we always look at, you know, kind of a medium term, anywhere between, you know, 2-4 years, the return on investment will be coming. This is a necessary because if we don't invest now, we will not be ready for, you know, meeting the peak requirements, which will be coming in next, you know, 3-4 years down the road.
Okay. So, so what's the value content per vehicles for this gear product?
Ranga, I think probably you want to take that.
No, what's the question?
Sir, like I asked, what's the revenue potential for the investment gears in manufacturing, which you answered, and the payback period. So are these differential gears, and what's the value content per vehicle for this gear product?
Value content in the vehicle?
Uh, yeah.
Nagaraja, I don't think I can answer that.
Yeah. No, again, just to clarify that it's not just in the gears, you know, it is also in the housings. We are investing in all the critical value streams of our this one, so because we don't sell one particular part now, we always sell it off the, as a, as a product. It is difficult for us to, you know, bifurcate into, you know, investment related to, you know, different components level.
Okay, okay, sir. So one last question. On exports, non-Meritor side, do you see any customer addition in one next one year? Like last two, three years, we didn't hear any customer addition from this non-Meritor side.
Kishan?
Yeah, so let me understand what, when you say customer, I just want to understand what is your definition of customer.
Kishan, the question was, if I understand right, when you say customer-
Non-Meritor.
Is to, Yeah, all our export is to other Meritor sites, and currently, we already have 40% business with North America, about 30% with Europe, Australia about 10%, and South America, we are working with them. So this, and of course, China is there. We supply some components to China.
This actually covers all the different regions where Meritor is present. So we are actually working with everybody as of now. The further area of scope, scope of improvement for us is to increase the content. That is what the pipeline that we are working on. But in terms of customers, we already cater to almost every site of Meritor globally.
No, Kishan, the question is, I think what she asked is, other than, you know, group companies, we have added UD. Other than UD, any options are there, the question.
Oh, okay. Sorry, I... That's what I was trying to understand. At present, no. It's right now we operate through the other Meritor locations, and at present, we don't see that changing other than what we have with UD.
Okay.
Thank you. That was the last question. I will now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Shailesh for closing remarks.
Yeah, thank you all for attending this session. We especially thank the Automotive Axles team for their time. Nagaraja sir, would you like to make any closing comments?
Yeah. Thanks, Shailesh. Again, to all our investors, you know, again, thank you very much for calling into this conference. And then, you know, please feel free to give us the feedback. I know that there are certain things, you know, as a policy we are not sharing, especially in terms of specific segment revenue and things like that. But otherwise, I'm sure that the entire team has answered your question to the best of our knowledge. Thanks again for your continued support. So we'll again meet up with you for the next quarter. Thank you.
On behalf of-
Thank you.
On behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.