Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q4FY25 Ashiana Housing Ltd Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Karnav Khanna from EY. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, and welcome everyone, and thanks for joining the Q4 and FY25 earnings call for Ashiana Housing Ltd. The results and the investor presentation have been mailed to you, and it is also available on the stock exchange. In case you have not received the same, kindly write to us. We'll be happy to send it over. To take us through the results for this quarter and full year and answer to all your queries, we have with us Mr. Varun Gupta, Whole-time Director, and Mr. Vikas Dugar, CFO. We will start the call with a brief overview of the company's performance of the quarter and then follow it up with Q&A.
I would like to remind you that everything said on this call that reflects an outlook for the future, which may be construed as a forward-looking statement, must be viewed in conjunction with the uncertainties and risks that they face. These uncertainties and risks are included but not limited to what we have mentioned in the prospectus filed with SEBI and subsequent annual reports, which you find on our website. With that being said, now I hand over the call to Mr. Dugar. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Karnav. Good afternoon, everyone. I hope you and your loved ones are keeping well. I welcome you all to our Q4 and full year FY25 earnings call, and thank you for taking the time out to join us today. Financial year 2025 has been a year of steady operational progress for Ashiana, marked by consistent sales performance and strong cash flow generation, despite challenges on the delivery front towards the end of the year. We achieved value of area book of INR 1,936.75 crores for the year, up 7.7% from FY24's 1,798.22 crores. This growth was driven primarily by improved realization per sq ft, supported by a favorable project mix and broader price improvement across key locations.
We continue to expand our portfolio across regions with launches during the year, including Phase IV and V in Gurugram, Phase II in Pune, Phase II in Bhiwadi, Phase II and III in Jaipur, Phase II of 144 in Jaipur. On the construction front, equivalent area constructed for FY25 was 20.12 lakh sq ft, broadly in line with 20.68 lakh sq ft in FY24. However, total revenue for FY25 came in at INR 557.45 crores, down from INR 966.52 crores last year. This was due to delays in the delivery of projects such as Phase I, Anmol Phase II, and Shubham 4B, which were originally scheduled for FY25 but now have shifted to FY26.
PAT for FY25 stood at INR 18.24 crores, compared to INR 83.4 crores in FY24. The decline was primarily due to lower revenue driven by lower-than-expected deliveries. The company posted its highest-ever pre-tax operating cash flow of INR 429.9 crores during the year, a testament to the underlying strength of our sales and collection engine. Our credit rating for bank facilities was also reaffirmed at ICRA A stable during the year. In Q4 specifically, we recorded INR 574.72 crores of sale value vis-à-vis Q3's INR 454.16 crores, 26.5% year-on-year increase. Launches in Q4 included Ashiana Amarah Phase V in Gurugram and Nitara Phases II and III in Jaipur. We also initiated handovers for Phase III in Jaipur. With this, I conclude my opening remarks and look forward to your questions and suggestions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the Q&A session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use hands up for asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. First question is from the line of Himanshu Upadhyay from Buglerock Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, good afternoon. My first question was, in case Phase I, we sold till Q3 FY24 only 42,000 sq ft. Phase II and III, we sold nearly 4 lakh sq ft, which is 90% of land. So what led to this great performance in that project? And it will be helpful to understand what has happened here.
Good afternoon, Himanshu. Phase II and III Phase I villas were expected to be a little slower anyways because the ticket sizes are much bigger. Size of the units are bigger. Per square foot pricing is also higher because of it being villas. So in apartments, we got a lot more volumes because of that. We launched apartments this time.
Okay. And one more thing on the Gurugram, we initially launched Ashiana Amarah at 6,000 per sq ft. And currently, it is at 15,000 sq ft in Phase V. How different is the specifications currently versus Phase I and II? and how different is Phase V?
Very different internally, Himanshu. The Phase V specifications, like the doors are different, the tiles are different. There is an added kitchen Phase I didn't have a kitchen cabinet. Phase V also, II, IV, and V have different kinds of overall specifications as Phase I and II.
See, why I was asking this question was because we have a significant amount of inventory to Phase I and II will start getting completion in next year. Can it be a case that people who are getting deliveries in next one year start competing with us because the realizations have increased quite significantly? As you think, for people who have bought in 1 and 2 and 5, there is a remarkable difference, and hence, the question of competition or people trying to sell will not be such a big issue when we Phase I and V.
So will there be competition? There will be some competition because the project is the same, the unit layouts are the same. But yes, the specifications are different, so there will be some differentiation involved between what we are providing in Phase V and IV as compared to what's being Phase I and II.
Okay. But competition can be there.
Yes, the retail competition could be there. But the kind of supply squeeze that is there in the Gurugram market in delivered units, I don't see too much of a challenge because people who are looking to buy then ready to move in homes are very different from people who are willing to wait. And Gurugram continues to be squeezed on the supply side in ready to move in homes, either if you want to rent or if you want to buy. So I think our timing should be fortuitous overall.
One last thing, progress on Ashiana Aravalli in Gurugram, where are we in terms of launch?
So we have environmental clearance approval received. In building plan approvals, unfortunately, we had to go back to the drawing board in terms of drawings because a new regulation came in in December. So we were all ready to file for building plan approvals, and then new regulations came in in December, and we had to go back and change some of our applications. So we are still sort of, I think, hopefully we should get approvals in the next quarter and launch in the Q3 of this year.
Okay. Okay. Thanks. That's all from us.
Thank you, Himanshu.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask the question. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask question. Participants, may press star and one to ask question. The next question is from the line of Ravi Purohit from Securities Investment Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Varun, a couple of things. Can you just share how's the demand been in the senior living space, and how are we progressing geographically for our senior living space? And then the second is, now that a lot of real estate markets in India have kind of become a little, I don't know whether they are like, at least Gurugram, I think you also called out in the previous call, there's a lot of heating up of the markets there. So land sales or land transactions themselves have become very expensive. So if you could just kind of give us general flavor of each of our major home markets and how are land deals happening there from a future pipeline point of view? And the first question, which is on the senior living space, if you could just share something.
Okay. So last year, I think in senior living sales value, we clocked around a 25% growth. I think we went closer to INR 375, 360-odd crores of pre-sales in senior living last year. And the year before that was INR 300 crores, and which was INR 100 crores about five years prior to that, and we had traveled in. And this year, we are looking to cross INR 450 crores of pre-sales in senior living. So we expect senior living to become a much bigger part of the business overall as we go into the future. It is 33% of our total saleable area pipe at this moment in time. Our deals, also when I come to that second piece, also the large focus of the company in terms of deals is also on the senior living piece there.
So we have announced three transactions in the recent times where we have done agreements or MOUs where there are condition precedents pending, of which two are in senior living, one in Panvel and one in Bangalore. And we are looking to do more in senior living. I think what happened last year was two things. One, the Ashiana Amodh project in Talegaon, we have been able to ramp up prices significantly. So the second phase of the project is north of INR 8,000 a sq ft in price points. And we were able to launch Ashiana Swarang in Chennai. And Swarang is the second project, third project for us in Chennai in senior living. But first time when we have two simultaneous projects open for sale in any city. And we've been able to clock more than INR 9,000 a sq ft in Swarang as price points.
And that has opened up a different sort of confidence for us that we can get a consumer base which is willing to pay more to come for senior living. And I would say for the next few years, senior living is where we will deploy a significant part of the incremental capital that we generate and incremental cash flows that we have. I think it is going to be an important piece. And what we are looking to do is be concentrated in NCR, Chennai, Mumbai, Pune, and Bangalore, sort of these kind of markets, and try and do multiple senior living products in these markets in different locations, different price points and different formats of, let's say, high rises, villas, G+4, and get multiple projects operating in these cities.
I think that's the intent of the organization going forward, and that will be sort of a key in scaling up senior living as we go forward, and coming back, second, in terms of home markets, so let's say Jamshedpur, Jaipur, and NCR being home markets. Jamshedpur, we have a project to launch in the pipeline, and we are looking for one more. Jamshedpur is the same as before. One project every couple of years kind of a market. We keep looking at it, do JVs, similar terms, generally in the mid-20s kind of range of revenue share, and we'll continue to do that. I think that it has limited appetite. In terms of Jaipur and NCR, I find the land prices elevated. I find it difficult to make sense on the current apartment prices for the land prices. So we are looking for transactions.
We are looking for ways where locations where we can create value, which are a little bit more untapped opportunities or come up with products which are different. Fortunately, in Gurugram, we have a project to launch. In Jaipur, we have signed up an agreement with Mahindra World City there, and we are waiting for them to put together some conditions precedent for us to be able to get there. I think that's the direction we are sort of going. We are looking for parcels in Bhiwadi as well. Land prices are very elevated. Like Bhiwadi is a case in point where no transactions have happened. No other developer is able to sell stock at a price which covers even construction cost. Land prices keep going up.
Correct. Correct. So how does it, yeah, sorry. Please finish, yeah.
No, go ahead, please.
Right. So how does this kind of give us a sense of the future pipeline, right? We are fairly well covered, and we've done well in the last three years, right? Deliveries of which will happen in the next three- to four-year period, right? But in terms of pipeline or future pipeline, building future pipeline, and maintaining a certain amount of minimum level of pre-sales every year, is there some such kind of? Is it the right way of looking at it? Can a real estate company realistically sustain a certain amount of minimum pre-sales over a longer period of time? Or, of course, we've seen cycles in the past, and we've seen significant drawdown in, say, pre-sales also over a period of time. So how are we kind of working on that?
Or is there any visibility that we have over the next three to four years that we will be able to kind of sustain a certain amount of pre-sales every year?
Ravi, very difficult question philosophically to say. Yeah, so we have a couple of views, right? One of the things is if you start chasing pre-sales, the worry comes along is you misallocate capital during the upcycling, right, so any business which is cyclical, this challenge comes along, and you're wondering what to do. For us, the key piece has been, can we look for things which are less cyclical in nature, and therefore, one piece comes along is senior living, okay, so the idea is to invest more and more into senior living and make that a larger number, okay, so instead of, let's say, sustaining a minimum level of pre-sales, the question is, can we sustain a minimum level of gross profits on an absolute level, which will take care of our overhead and throw off a minimum return on equity, correct?
What periods can you ride without pre-sales and still make Return on Equity because your previous pre-sales are feeding into the business still? How much time can you have? Fortunately, I think we have covered till about FY30, okay? We have a five-year piece which has covered from a, let's say, delivery perspective, and we are covered for about two-to-three years from a pre-sales perspective. As long as a minimum threshold of Return on Equity gets covered, I will be okay with doing a little lower pre-sales in a year. To me, getting the senior living, so rather than worrying about home markets, if we are able to get senior living to a scale where it starts doing INR 1,000 crores plus of pre-sales a year, I think that will provide a lot of stability to the business.
And I think that's the direction we are going in. And so hopefully, we will have deal announcements for senior living in the near future coming in, which will sort of give you more comfort. We are working hard on doing senior living transactions in all these markets.
Okay. Got it. Great, Varun. Thanks a lot and all the best. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you, Ravi. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anubhav Goel from Cosma Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. So I just wanted an update. You mentioned the Mahindra World City in Jaipur. I just wanted an update on the two land deals we did back in November, the 11 lakh sq ft one and the 20 lakh sq ft one with Mahindra World City.
So we have done three transactions which are under CPs, Bangalore, Panvel, and Mahindra World City in Jaipur. All three right now, we are awaiting landlords to fulfill certain conditions. I get updates from them, things are moving, but none of these are done till they're done.
Got it. So this includes.
But they're not done till they're done.
Got it, sir. So this includes the Bangalore parcel you mentioned last quarter, right? The 78 lakh sq ft.
Yes. Yes. In Bangalore also, all commercial terms are closed. Some financial transaction has also happened. MOUs are done, but certain CPs are pending, and even in Panvel, what we have done is an agreement to sell, and we are waiting for the landlord to fulfill certain conditions for the transaction to close. Unfortunately, one thing in the deck, there was a typo that we said it was acquired. It's been ATS has been done. We'll be sending an updated deck. In the last quarter, we did an agreement to sell. We are hoping that CPs also there get satisfied relatively quickly, and then we can move forward.
So, sir, for all these, it might take time, but we expect all of them to close. No hiccups as such.
Yes. We are actually working on drawings and stuff like that on both. So we expect them to close. But I give a caveat in our business, in these kind of situations, nothing is done till it's done, okay? I think we should always have that caveat, yeah.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. And sir, among your senior living projects, I think most are seeing good traction quarter on quarter. I just wanted an update on Phase II senior living, where it seems to have slowed down this quarter.
Phase II slowed down a little bit because we were launching a building in that as a separate Phase II, actually, from a sales perspective, we launched it in two pieces. So it was a little slow in this quarter because we were building up on a pipeline for sort of a new building launch within that phase, which has happened in the Q1 of this year. You will see better sales reported in that in this quarter.
Okay, sir. And sir, can you throw some color on the launches for this year in FY26?
We'll have phase launches mostly. We will have Ashiana Arohan's launch in this as a completely new project. We plan to launch Ashiana Amaya in Jamshedpur as well this year. We are working to get Jaisinghpura also launched in Jaipur. We hope to launch about three projects like that. One part where we will update the deck, unfortunately, we haven't updated the deck on it. In one of our legacy projects in Jaipur, we had about a lakh sq ft of saleable area stuck in regulatory issues. It was so small that it was not covered. It's called Aravalli. We should be launching Ashiana Aravalli also within this financial year. That's that. We'll have phase launches. All of our senior living projects should see phase launches in this year.
And we should also launch, let's phase in Malhar as well going forward. So that's what I think we will do this year.
Got it, sir. Got it, and sir, can you mention the saleable area for Aravalli, which we'll launch in Q3?
Around 11 lakh sq ft total. I think we should launch a third of that in the first phase.
Got it. Got it. And sir, just my last question is, the previous participant also mentioned this. So this year and last year has been very good from a bookings point of view, and it will come in the P&L with good profitability. But from a bookings point of view for this year, possibly it will be quite short of 2,800.
Say that again.
The bookings number for FY26, it will be much lower than the number we have clocked this year, right, in FY25?
We are targeting for INR 2,000 crores internally again for this year.
Okay.
So we have, if you look at, we have about INR 1,500 crores of unsold stock within the launch project. And we will be launching Aravalli. We'll be launching Amaya. So we are looking to get to INR 2,000 crores this year as well.
So, sir, for 26 and 27, we have some visibility for maintaining this INR 2,000 crore bookings number, even for next year?
I think so. With Aravalli coming in in Gurugram, that would create a basis, yes. The idea is to maintain that basis, yes.
Got it, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you, Aravalli.
Thank you. A reminder: all the participants will be muted and want to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Rohit Balakrishnan from ithought PMS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello. Am I audible, sir?
Yes.
Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon, sir. So I joined. Yeah, good afternoon. I just joined the call a bit late, so maybe I don't know if this question was asked earlier. But sir, we had said that between FY25 to FY30 financial year, we probably do close to INR 11,000 crores of. I mean, the pre-sales will sort of get converted over this period in terms of booked revenue. So in that, so if I look at the presentation, FY26, sorry, 26, 27, 28, we have what? INR 4,000-odd crores of revenue that we think that will get booked. Of course, plus minus one to two quarters here and there that may happen. But so, sir, from that perspective, and you just said that another INR 1,500 crores we have.
So in the presentation, slide number 15, I think you have a 6,000 crore kind of number, which is there, of which 4,800-4,400 has been sold, and the remaining is yet to be, I mean, the inventory. So for the remaining, so this is like halfway mark of that 11,000 crore roughly, right? So how do you bridge this gap from 5,500, 6,000 crores to 11,000 crores? So I mean, just wanted to get a sense.
Just I wanted to clarify. We'll send it. I think there's a typo that 4,364 should be close to 4,500 crores, which is in the previous slide in slide number 11, okay? So 4,500 is sold. We have another 1,500. So that's about 6,000 crores of launched phases. In terms of unlaunched phases of existing projects, we have about 36 lakh sq ft, okay? And let's say even at like ₹6,000 a sq ft, that's about 2,000 crores of sale value. I don't know exactly where these things will be priced. I'm being a little bit conservative at 6. My guess is that they would be probably closer to 7. So maybe around 2,500 crores will come in from here. In terms of land available for future development that we plan to launch, I'll exclude Milakpur. Even this is slide 24.
Even Panvel is sort of in ATS with conditions precedent to meet. But there are three land parcels totaling about 25 lakh sq ft, including Aravalli, Jaisinghpura land, and Ashiana Amaya in Jamshedpur. These put together will be around another INR 2,000-INR 2,500 crores. So when you put these and with the unlaunched phases, you get to about INR 10,500-INR 11,000 crores. And my view is that we need to launch all of these within this year and then work hard to make sure we can deliver this by FY30. Just a little tight on the construction cycle. Construction cycles are generally five years plus for projects of 10 lakh sq ft.
We are looking to see if we can crunch it down to four and a half and sort of making and putting it out there here so we also feel a little bit of pressure to get them in that timeline in. And that's that. And we would be hopeful we have deals in the pipe. If they close within this year and we launch them in FY27, then we will have some of their phases hopefully coming up for delivery in FY30 to create that some buffer room into the numbers that we are looking at here. So that's the sort of that's the place we are coming from in terms of looking at that number.
So sir, from our point of view, the number that I mean, the critical point is that whether we are able to have the launches of these three projects in this financial year, right? Because if we delay that, then I think everything then gets sort of cascaded down in terms of us achieving that number, right?
Yes. If we delay this, it will cascade. It is critical that we launch them within this year. Absolutely.
And in terms of us launching, so what is the, sorry, again, maybe this was asked earlier. I'm sorry. But these three projects, what is the tentative timeline that you're thinking? I mean, which quarter or which period are you?
Aravalli in Q3, Aravalli and Amaya in Q3, and new land Jaisingpura in Q4 of this year.
Okay. So again, launches will be moved back-ended again this time.
Yes.
Got it.
Yes.
Okay. Understood. And sir, from a profitability point of view, again, like you had mentioned in a few calls before that cumulative profits of about INR 2,000 crores is what you expect on these INR 11,000 crores. So while a lot of the other projects, which we have done already, you would know, I mean, from your current sales and some of the book sales and whatever is happening from a sale-through point of view. So you know fairly the profitability. For these three, what is your—I mean, you've not even launched. But I wanted to just get your sense at INR 6,000 or INR 6,500, whatever price that you're underwriting, will we be able to get those 15%-20% kind of net margins at an aggregate level?
Yes. Yeah. The deals have been done earlier, particularly Ashiana Aravalli of all these three. Aravalli has faced value because we did the deal two years ago at very different price points as compared to the current market pricing there, and Aravalli should generate a chunk of those profits because of the favorable land value terms that we were able to do, and we have an idea of the sales pricing because we are selling Amarah in the similar micro market, right? It's not very different in the micro market, so we are able to put those estimates in. I think that's where we are coming from. Again, Amaya and Jamshedpur and Jaisingpura, these are micro markets where we are already operating with projects, so sale-price expectations are built because we know those micro markets.
They are not only the cities. The micro markets are also not completely new to us right now.
Got it. And sir, Amaya again, so we would be selling, Amaya would be a smaller project, right? Which is in Jamshedpur, it's about 4,500 lakh sq ft?
Yeah. It's about four or four and a half lakh sq ft, yeah.
Got it. Got it. And Jaisingpura would be about 1 million sq ft, right?
Yeah. It's about 1.1, yeah.
And so all these three, so Jaisingpura would be across how many phases, sir, that will launch?
Jaisingpura should be over four phases.
Four phases. Okay. And all four, okay. Got it. So those four phases, you should sort of get launched in FY26 and 27? Is that how one should think about it?
Yes. That's how you should think about it. Maybe one phase going to 28, but that's what we are looking at.
Okay. Understood. Got it. And sir, in terms of the last conference call, I think we had this land. We were going through this deal in acquiring a land in Kanakapura Road in Bangalore, if my memory serves right. So any update on that?
We are awaiting for landowners to fulfill conditions precedent on the same land.
Okay. Okay. So any
There's some regulatory approvals we need to get on the land stage, which is with the landowner. We're just waiting for them to finish that off.
So probably by end of Q2, is that a fair expectation or don't have a timeline yet?
Yes. End of Q2 is a fair expectation.
Got it. And sir, in this Panvel, this thing that you announced some time back, so this is just 7 lakh sq ft. So when do you sort of start moving on this project in terms of launch, etc.? How long will that take?
Again, this is an agreement that is done with certain CPs for the landlord to fulfill. We are sitting with this as well, yeah. I'm hoping that will.
Okay. Okay.
Two of this, yeah.
These both are outright, sorry, this Panvel is an outright land purchase or a JD?
Panvel is an outright transaction, and Bangalore is a development agreement.
Okay. Got it, and one more question, I am sorry. For FY26, from this year, some of the sales, I think, got pushed out to, I think you said that from a delivery point of view, this year, especially the second half, was a bit slow, so some of it would get transferred to Q, I mean, to FY26. So what is the top line and broad profitability that you are looking at for FY26? I'm sorry if you've shared this.
FY26, the top line would be around, so there was one totaling error in the sheet we shared. We would expect around INR 1,200 crores of top line this year. We haven't done the profitability math yet, yeah. So I don't have the profitability numbers on us.
Okay. Okay.
But it will be the last year of low margin on a full-year basis to us. I think margins will still be lower because it will be the last year of legacy projects getting delivered with higher land costs, except for Malhar, which will continue, but will be a very small fraction. This year, it's the 27 and 28 when we see margins significantly improve. 26, we will have quarters with good margins, but on a full-year basis, margins are not going to be very, very good yet because of the legacy projects, particularly Anmol, Shubham, and Malhar, which are not the best of margins overall.
Okay. Got it. So your target ROE of about 15% plus. On a reported basis, do you think FY26 you will be able to cross that or is that?
I would expect so. We need to crunch the numbers, yeah. On an economic basis, we have crossed. We are not worried on an economic basis. Now, we are likely sooner or later they'll come show up in the reported numbers. But we need to crunch the numbers to exactly know. But I would expect so, yes. I would expect that to be there.
Sure. Sure. Sure. Thank you, sir. I think this is a crucial year. So all the very best for you and your team. Thank you.
Thank you, Rohit. It is an important year, yes.
Thank you.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants to press star and one to ask question. The next question is from the line of Anubhav Goel from Cosma Ventures. Please go ahead.
Sir, just wanted some more color on Amara phase five. I think we have done about 23% bookings. So you feel this will now take some time to ramp up or maybe we can reach about 50%-60% in a few quarters?
We should be able to reach 50-60% in these few quarters. Ideally, our benchmark for launch is at 20%. That becomes a good number for us to have. We crossed that, and monthly sales seem to be good, so I don't see a challenge in monthly sales bookings.
Okay. And sir, on senior living as a whole, are we now seeing more players entering or do you feel we can still hold on to our niche for some more time?
So senior living, people are entering, yeah, but nobody is making the commitment to senior living in the way we have done yet. The scale of our projects, the quality of our projects, the kind of activities we do, the kind of lifestyle we are able to bring to the table because just because we do a surely just bigger projects. And that is because we have made a commitment to it. So at this moment of time, the large-sized projects I only see from Antara and that too in NCR. They haven't launched elsewhere. So right now, we do continue to see that we will be able to scale the business at a bigger pace because we have made a different kind of commitment to it.
Right. Right. And sir, the visibility on land deals, say versus three months back, six months back, do you feel it's still very tough or maybe we can expect some major deals this year?
You can expect deals, particularly in the senior living space this year. We see a lot more possibilities in the senior living space this year. So hopefully, we'll announce more transactions within the senior living space.
Okay. Okay. And, sir, just last question. I just wanted this on the delays in delivery, since we are heavily focused on profitability. Is it a sort of an internal issue or do you feel it's more normal, the delays in deliveries we see quarter- on- quarter?
So two things. Quarter- on- quarter movement in deliveries is normal, okay? It's very difficult to be very quarterly precise because when we go for deliveries, we do have to get approvals. So like in Gurugram, even though we were ready from a construction perspective by end of last year, our occupancy certificate only came in in first week of April. Now, if it had come in by 25th March, it would have gotten done in March itself. But if it came in in the first two weeks of April, it goes to that situation. And then so quarter- on- quarter delays are definitely has some external input involved, but I would be wrong to completely ascribe it to external pieces. There are a lot of things which are within our control.
The thing we are looking to do within the company is make the commitment to meet the annual numbers. We are anyways not a quarter- on- quarter business. I'm okay with things slipping from one quarter to the other. What we are not okay with is things slipping from one year to the other. Therefore, where we need a little bit more, see how do we buffer in and make sure it's a Q4 schedule of deliveries that worry me and bother me a little bit from that perspective that we need to get them in. What we are looking to do is create internal tension that external environment may something might happen. What do we do to figure it out that we get deliveries in place?
Got it, sir, and sir, just coming back to that presale figure, like you mentioned, senior living is about 33% now, and incrementally, more and more capital allocation will go there. So is it now key to a very large extent we'll focus only on senior living and not on, say, premium homes and mid-premium homes? Because it will start affecting the base.
Not completely true. So what I would say is that we want to become a company which does multiple residential products in multiple cities. I think that's the intent with a few markets. What we see right now is that deploying capital into regular residential real estate in this cycle is better to deploy in senior living at this moment in time, given the land prices in the locations where we are active. Second, I think in home markets, NCR, Jaipur, and Jamshedpur, regular residential real estate will continue to dominate, and we will look to do deals, look to do presales, look to build out. I don't think we will stop doing that.
I think what we will do is what senior living provides us is an opportunity is that, in cycles where land prices are elevated, we can find other pockets of opportunity where land prices may not be as elevated and deploy capital there, and why not do that if those opportunities are available to us? I think that's where we are coming from.
Understood, sir. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Thank you, Anubhav.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Balakrishnan from ithought PMS. Please go ahead.
Sir, just a couple of questions again. One is, so now this inventory that we have and sold inventory in the phases, so I mean, what is the sales through that is happening in these projects now? So what do you expect? I mean, in your expectation, when do you think this inventory should ideally get sold off, I mean, 70%-80% of it? So, what is that? That's my first question.
Okay. And yep, so given the run rate, we don't track annual run rate actually when everything will get sold out. What we track generally is are projects comfortable to sell out completely by the time they are ready, okay? So we don't have a lot of substantial built-and-sold inventory. Some built-and-sold inventory happens. Some project units are unfavorable. Different phases have different kind of units that are moving, less moving. At this moment of time, I don't see any project which will have substantial build-up of unsold inventory the way we are progressing at this point of time.
Okay. So basically, so you said that when you launch, you are comfortable with a 20%-25% sell-through in the initial phase, and the remaining gets sold as the projects, I mean, as you sort of market it or as, I mean, over a period of the completion. So typically, how does the cycle work generally as a rule of thumb if you have year one? Let's say launch is 20%, then year one of launch, then year two, let's say it takes four and a half years, so four to five years. So broadly, how does it just for us to understand? I'm sure each project is different, but if there is a rule of thumb or I mean, from your perspective.
My perspective is what we look at is each project has a different sort of expected customer handover date. These vary between 30-45 months from launch generally, okay? Closer to 30-36 months from launch, generally about 36 months would be generally where we are looking to do. And depending on the inventory, we expect it to sell by then, okay? Some projects are moving faster. Some projects are moving slower. If we launch sell 20% at launch and the remaining 80%, we are selling about 25% a year, we are comfortable with it. If it's not moving at that pace, then we become a little uncomfortable with it. That's what we look for. What we are not looking for is normal. I don't have a natural or a normal cycle. What we have is a minimum accepted cycle. Anything better than that is okay.
So you're saying 20 at launch and 25% every year subsequent to that, roughly, as a rule of thumb?
Yeah. That's very good.
Yeah. That is something that meets your expectation and.
Yeah, and anything below is unacceptable. Anything above, great. What we shoot for is better than that, obviously. Yeah.
All of these projects that you've launched are either meeting expectations or above expectation, right?
Yes.
That is, yeah. Okay. Got it. That's great to hear. And sir, if I look at your presales from FY22 to FY26, I think you would have sold roughly 5,500 units of presales in terms of your bookings. So on these, if you were to hazard a guess in terms of your profitability, embedded profitability cumulatively, what would that be for you?
Yeah. So as I said earlier, we have talked about our total book, including these running to about 11,000 crores of sales and about 2,000 crores of profit. So that was about 18-19% kind of after-tax margin. I would be hazarding a guess on the older profile. So I would say 14 on the kind of whatever we have sold. We have unsold, sold but not recognized for revenue is about 4,500 crores of revenue. I would sort of estimate about 14-15% of margins on a blended basis across the same. I expect future sales to be better margins because they are on lower land cost. So let me put it this way. My land cost for Amara is the same on a per sq ft basis. But Phase I was sold at INR 6,000 a sq ft.
Amara Phase V is being sold at INR 15,000 a sq ft. I have very different profitabilities between those two phases. So therefore, as we are going along, we have lots of newer phases to launch, and those newer phases have higher price points than the earlier phases. And therefore, they are more profitable than the older phases. Does that make sense?
Yeah. Makes sense. Makes sense.
Yeah. So we have run it on the entire, our mathematics was done on the entire sort of portfolio. It was less worried about year on year. We were more worried, can we get this block in by FY30?
Got it. So essentially, what you're saying is the ones which you're selling now and the ones which you'll sell in the next sort of forthcoming quarters, the profitability is much higher given the elevated price levels and the lower land costs that you had originally bought them at. So they would be more than 20%, and that's how you average close to 18%-19%.
Yes. Correct.
So I mean, just as a general sort of comment, so sir, I mean, today our market cap is around 3,000 crores. You are saying we would probably return, I mean, not return, I mean, earn cumulatively 2,000 crores roughly plus minus 10%-15% here and there. So roughly two-thirds of our market cap, we'll be able to sort of earn as profits. I mean, it seems to me that, I mean, either we will not do that or the market is not believing we'll do that. Either which, I mean, if we don't do that, it's a separate thing, but I mean, the stock seems to be very, very undervalued. So are you considering hello?
Go ahead.
Yeah. So are you considering any sort of buyback or we did one buyback last year, I think around 12 months back. So are you thinking of doing another buyback?
Buybacks have become very tax-inefficient for shareholders.
Yeah. That's true. Yeah. That's true. Right.
And with the cost basis. So that becomes a little bit of a challenge overall to do. So therefore, we have not done a buyback. And on whether the pricing of the market cap is correct or incorrect, that's not for me to reflect upon.
Of course.
That's for us to reflect upon: is can we get to those earnings that we're talking about, and we are pushing hard to get there. I think we have a belief that we have a strong possibility for it, so we are fairly confident of getting there. I think before, earlier, I don't know if you said that or some other person on the call said that this is a critical year for us, and getting this year right is going to be sort of. I think that will pave the way for both confidence in the market and confidence elsewhere that these numbers will happen. I think delivering this year is going to be key on the sales figures.
Right. And sir, given I mean, generally, because it's sort of a critical year for our overall numbers and targets, so is there a thought that we can sort of space out the launches? Because let's say if you are doing more Q3 and Q4, and let's say there is something that happens in those quarters, in those micro markets, or in general, and then everything gets pushed or some regulatory thing or something like that. So I mean, just as a matter of prudence, or that is something that we have.
Idea is to press the pedal on getting approvals and launching as quickly as we can, and then hope that things don't go wrong. And when things do go wrong, eventually they will go wrong somewhere, as management can find ways around that and work around that. What we don't try to do is plan over a few quarters when deliveries will happen, when sales will happen, and do all this. I think it just becomes too much planning. Rather just go for action to get things done. And then when we have it, in those times, take a call whether we have the team to sell, whether the market is ready. And then you can delay if you want three, four months here or there to get ready and take that call accordingly, right? I think, but there is nothing. Let's juggle things around to smoothen things out.
I think.
No, no. My point was not smoothen things out. No, no. I'm not saying smoothen things out. I'm just saying that if every critical project for our, I mean, let's say if you're doing every launch in one quarter and God forbid there is something that happens in that quarter, it gets pushed out. So that's the only reason. I'm not trying to smoothen things. That was not the intent of the question.
Yeah. Unfortunately, we live with those risks. Yeah. What to do?
Sure. Sure.
Those risks are there. So let's see what we can do.
Yeah. No, no. Sure. And sir, just one more point on that valuation so.
Can I just ask a last question from you, Rohit? Because we have one more question waiting in our team.
Yeah. Yeah. Of course. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Sorry. Was just that, I mean, as owners, as promoters, are you also think I mean, given the general attractiveness of the company, at least that's what it seems to me, are you also thinking to maybe increase your allocation or anything on those lines? I did see that you guys did around COVID. I did see that. But so I mean, if there is anything on that.
Not really. If we don't have any personal balance sheet to do that. We have some other intent of sort of building homes for two of the brothers right now, and our personal funds are actually just allocated towards that.
Sure.
So there is no intent of actually increasing holding there. But we don't have the funds to do it. Intent is not there, but we don't have the funds to do it.
Okay. Got it. Got it. Thank you so much and all the very best. Thanks.
Thank you. Thank you, Rohit. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Jain, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So sorry if somebody has already asked this. I joined a bit late. So my question was that I see that Ashiana Amara has Phase I delivery pushed from FY26 to 27. So is there some reason, what was the reason for this, and will it have some impact on our profitability that they guided?
It will have an impact on our profitability because Amara is overall a profitable project, Rahul. But it's only a timing issue. I think it'll just move from one year to the other in terms of profitability from a cash flow perspective. We are mostly locked in. It's only the last sliver of cash flows in terms of the OC-related payments that get a little bit deferred. That said, we are still pushing hard to try and get Amara into the Q4 this year. What is happening in NCR now is if we are not able to get things ready by October and have our OC applied for it, be ready to take out checklist by then, then the delay is not 15 days.
If I delay 15, 20 days, then the delay goes actually three, four months because we lose about two and a half months now to NGT construction bans during that time. And given the experience this year of what happened by even 15, 20-day delays in a couple of NCR projects, which led to that kind of an issue, we just thought we'll buffer in time for Amara as well, given that concern.
Got it. And so I think last to last quarter conference call, we had kind of given a rough estimate like we'll do around INR 1,100 crores in FY26 with a margin of around 12%-13%. So will this be kind of impacted because of Amara?
Yeah. The revenue figure should remain similar. The margin should get impacted because some things moved from 25 to 26, but they are not nearly as profitable as Amara is. We haven't run the percentage profitability numbers internally, so I can't tell you where the profit expectations would be. We will be running those numbers. In the next call, we can give a guidance on the same as well.
Okay. Got it. And are you seeing some kind of pricing pressure across the micro markets where you are operating? I think Gurugram has some kind of.
There are no pricing pressures anywhere in any market. We are not concerned with sale prices in any market at this point of time. Even Gurugram, we are post the launch also, sales have continued this quarter, and we seem to be comfortable in the direction we're going.
Okay. And anything you're seeing on the supply side, like supply is increasing too much, land prices are unsustainable or something along like you had mentioned around?
Yeah.
Yeah. Around 2021 that this is increasing.
To me, land prices are unsustainable in some micro markets because they are factoring in a much different price as compared to the price points we are selling at overall. So I think they just compete like in Jaipur, to make sense of the land prices, people are quoting. I have to think of a price point which is 30% higher than the current price point. 5%, 10% is one business, right? But 25% higher price point, 30% higher price point than the current price points, that's why I say land prices are unsustainable. I just might be wrong, and prices of apartments might increase 30% to catch up on the same. But since I'm a buyer there, I might be also a lot more conservative than others. But that's my view overall on prices.
Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. Also, are we seeing some sizes of the apartments are getting smaller, something along those lines, or is it like?
Apartment price sizes are not getting smaller in any of the micro markets we are operating in.
Okay. Got it.
Okay. So we don't see that trend in the micro markets we are operating in. That would be a trend where then it shows that there is sales price pressure. The fact that either apartment sizes are staying the same or increasing a bit, okay, that gives me a sense that we are on the right track overall.
Yeah. That's good to hear. Thanks.
Okay. Thank you for that, Rahul. I think we'll close the call going forward on this. I will hand over to Vikash Ji for closing comments, please.
Thank you once again for joining us on this earnings call and for your continued interest in Ashiana Housing. While FY25 had its share of delivery-related challenges, we are encouraged by the strength of our sales momentum, launch pipeline, and operational cash flows. We remain focused on timely handovers in FY26 and on building long-term value through disciplined execution and customer-centric development. If there are any questions we were unable to address today, please feel free to reach out to us directly. The investor presentation relevant materials are available on our website, and we'll be happy to provide any further clarifications you may need. Wishing you all good health and a productive year ahead. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Ashiana Housing Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.