Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Ashiana Housing Limited Q4 FY 2023 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Binay Sarda from Ernst & Young LLP. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Aman. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining this Q4 FY 2023 earnings call for Ashiana Housing Limited. The results and the investor presentation have been mailed to you, and it is also available on the stock exchange. In case if you have not received the same, please write to us, and we'll be happy to send it over to you. To take us through the results for this quarter and answer your questions, we have today with us Mr. Varun Gupta, Whole Time Director, and Mr. Vikas Dugar, CFO. We'll be starting the call with a brief overview of the company's performance of this quarter, and then we'll follow it up with Q&A session.
I would like to remind you that everything said on this call that reflects any outlook for the future, which may be construed as a forward-looking statement, must be viewed in conjunction with uncertainties and risks that they face. These uncertainties and risks are included, but not limited to, what we have mentioned in the prospectus file with SEBI and subsequent annual reports, which you'll find on our website. With that said, I'll now hand over the call to Mr. Vikash Dugar. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Binay. Good afternoon, everyone. Hope all of you and your families are keeping healthy. I welcome you to discuss the performance of the fourth quarter and the year ended March 2023 for Ashiana Housing. Thank you for joining us today. The year gone by was quite active in terms of new launches. We launched five greenfield projects and eight new phases of existing projects, totaling to the tune of 39.46 lakh sq ft. Second Kid Centric project was launched in Gurugram by name Ashiana Amara. The first phase was launched in October 2022, comprising 224 units and was fully booked at launch. Phase two was launched in April 2024, consisting of 224 units, sellable area 3.77 lakh sq ft, having a sale value of around INR 283 crore.
All these 224 units were converted on seventeenth of April. Ashiana Prakriti got launched in Jamshedpur in March 2023, with 162 units and sale value of INR 163 crores. Entire phase was sold at launch. Ashiana Advik, our third senior living project in Bhiwadi, was launched in November 2022. Ashiana Malhar in Pune was launched in August 2022. And Ashiana Ekansh in Jaipur was also launched. We achieved INR 1,313.43 crores for financial year 2023, which was our highest ever pre-sales. Area booked increased by 25% from 14.76 lakh sq ft in FY 2022 to 25.86 lakh sq ft in FY 2023.
Sales price improved to INR 5,080 for the current year versus INR 3,883 per sq ft in FY 2022, an increase of 31% year-on-year, driven by increasing prices across projects and changing mix towards higher priced projects. In the last quarter of FY 2023, 8.59 lakh sq ft of area was booked as compared to 9.03 lakh sq ft in the previous quarter. In Q4, bookings were driven by new launches in Ashiana Prakriti, Jamshedpur, and Ashiana Ekansh, Jaipur, and sales in older projects like Ashiana Anmol, phase 3, Gurugram, and Ashiana Shubham, phase 4B, Chennai. We handed over 10.51 lakh sq ft in FY 2023. This was against a delivery of 8.86 lakh sq ft in FY 2022.
Total revenue increased to INR 425.19 crore in FY 2023 versus INR 233.59 crore in FY 2022, due to higher deliveries. Total comprehensive income was positive at INR 28.78 crore, vis-a-vis negative INR 6.56 crore in FY 2022. Total revenue reported for Q4 FY 2023 was INR 116.94 crore, vis-a-vis INR 135.31 crore in the previous quarter. TCI also improved to INR 10.51 crore in Q4 FY 2023 versus INR 9.29 crore in Q3 FY 2023. Pre-tax operating cash flows were positive at INR 84.84 crore for FY 2023 versus positive INR 165.08 crore in FY 2022.
Equivalent area constructed was 16.73 lakh sq ft in FY 2023 versus 16.20 lakh sq ft in FY 2022. Further, two new land parcels were acquired in Jaipur in FY 2023, Ashiana Nitara in village Mankrota, with an approximate sellable area of 6.5 lakh sq ft, and the Amaltas by Ashiana in Jagatpura, with approximate sellable area of 4 lakh sq ft. One new land was acquired in Manesar, Gurugram, with an approximate sellable area of 10.3 lakh sq ft. Total potential sellable area in these new land parcels will be around 21 lakh sq ft. On this note, I would like to conclude my remarks. We'll now be happy to discuss any questions or suggestions that you may have.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Vivek Joshi from BP Capital LLP. Please go ahead.
Yeah, congratulations, sir, for a very good set of numbers, especially on the booking front and all. So, I have two questions. One is that, could you explain the, how the expenses are booked? It's mainly an accounting question. Like, is it, is it related to the deliveries made, or is it like an ongoing thing on the complete cost that has been incurred during the year? And for deliveries, in your slide, you have given that in FY 2024, you are going to be delivering around 26 lakh sq ft. So is it reasonable to assume that given the realization rate, our booked revenue will be around over INR 1,000 crores for FY 2024?
Yeah, thank you for your question. So, the year in which we give the deliveries, that year only we book the revenues, and following the matching principle, the booked costs are also booked in the same year. Both revenue and cost are booked at the time of deliveries, or in other words, at the time of possession, being given on the project. As far as revenue for FY 2024 is concerned, again, the pricing for each of these projects will have to be seen as to what exactly is the price, and then, we'll be in a position to exactly see as to what revenue will be booked.
I was seeing the average one. The average is about INR 4,000, so, like...
Yeah, so, I'm here. For all these projects, we list out the value of area booked separately. It is provided in the sheet, in our operations snapshot, as to what the value of Area Booked is. Of all these projects, if you take from there, you can total it and get a sense of where we are going.
It's on slide 12.
Okay. I just wanted to know if I'm approximately in the right benchmark. I'll do the exact math, but so that-
You can do the math. I think you'll be a little so, but... We also haven't done the full math. We will also do a full math next time, when we give this sense. But, the thing is, average wouldn't be right because the average is also getting skewed from what is getting booked at a higher rate in the last financial year. And, the deliveries that are happening in FY 2024 have been bookings which have done, much earlier than that, right? You know, the average would not be the right context here to take. So, I would rather do the math because with sale prices can really vary a lot, now in our-
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Got it, got it. They would be, they would be two years back. Got it, got it.
Yeah, and earlier it used to operate in a tight range, okay? So approximation was better. Now, we have projects ranging at INR 3,000 per sq ft and going up to, like, Amara Phase Two, I think, closed at INR 7,700 per sq ft. Which... So the variation in price points now has also become very large for us. I think we should just keep that in context.
Okay, thank you so much.
Thank you.
Is it okay if I ask another question, or I'll wait in the queue as you please, like?
You can go ahead. I think there is. You can go ahead, one more question.
Yeah. Yeah, okay. So another thing I wanted to know that now that we have booked, like, 25 lakhs sq ft and around INR 1,300 crore value, is this, is this the run rate we are looking to do? Because you would have your launches and all already planned in the coming financial year, or is this going to vary a lot? Like, is this the new normal or it was an exceptional year like?
No. So in this year, we are expecting a INR 1,500 crore sale value push. Okay? So, so we are looking to grow this number. That said, I think quarterly variations, like last year also, if you see, a bulk of it came in two quarters, in the last two quarters. So I think we will continue to have quarterly variations as we go along. So we'll have a couple of great quarters and a couple of slower quarters, depending on how projects and phase launches are planned in those quarters.
Thank you.
This year we are expecting INR 1,500 crore.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Any participants who wish to ask a question at this time, then may please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Himanshu Upadhyay from o3 PMS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Congrats, Varun, and the whole team of Ashiana on good set of numbers and meeting the targets which you set for yourself at the beginning of the year. So great to see the good times for the company. And I also visited the Chennai project this year, this quarter, and it was impressed the senior living project also. So I'm working here from people there. So my first question is, can you give an idea of this HSIIDC land deal? Has it been consummated? And what I understand from reading the document, it seems that, it will... The final payment can happen in 2024, okay? So is it a long gestation, deal? And what is, the contours? Okay, will it be we can only launch project in FY 2025 or 2026? Some idea on that, what is happening there.
Himanshu, so we've paid, we have paid 25% of the sum of money, okay? We are waiting to now execute what they call a formal Agreement to Sell. Post the execution of formal agreement to sell, we have up to 12 months to make the remaining payment, and thereafter, we can go for plan approvals and stuff like that. There's a process for us to carry out our design. And unfortunately, at Ashiana or fortunately at Ashiana, we take a lot of time to design, because design is our winning edge. So time consumption in design is a little high, but it also leads to a good product. So we're gonna use a substantial part of this time to get our design ready. And some approvals, like environmental approvals, we can move without even paying the full amount, so we'll be using that time.
Anyways, we would have expected a 12-18 month time frame of launch since we did the deal, so we were not expecting the launch of the project in FY 2024, no matter what the payment terms are. We would like to launch this project in FY 2025.
Okay, okay. Thanks for the clarity. And one more thing, you gave a target of INR 1,500 crores of sales, okay, for, let's say FY 2024. We did 2.6 million sq ft of sales in FY 2023. So do you think that we'll be focusing more on the sales or means the area-wise, or you think the realization itself will take us to our desired target of higher 20% sales growth, what we are expecting?
A combination of both, Himanshu. So some places we'll push for higher sales prices, like in Gurugram, in Ashiana Amara phase two. We launched the phase two, which we've disclosed, but also at a much higher sale value. I think 224 units this time, and INR 7,700 average per sq ft pricing, as compared to INR 6,100 in phase one in Amara. So in Amara, we're looking at that. But in some other projects in Jaipur, we expect volume push as well. So there would be different flavors in different locations. So it's a combination of the two when we look at it.
Are we back to the peak margins, what we used to do in terms of gross margins in the projects what we are selling? We stated that 30% gross margin had come down to 24%-25%. Are we... In the incremental sales, what we are doing, can we expect the gross margins to be back to the historical highs-
Yes. So 30% is probably average of what we would like to be, and we would expect 30% gross margins on a blended basis across the projects. That said, the older projects, like Ashiana Anmol, even at current price points, will not make those kind of margins. But all the new, any project that we have signed off on after 2015, I think we'll be able to maintain a 30% gross margin or more. Like, we launched five projects last year, Ashiana Advik, Ashiana Amara, Ashiana Prakriti, Ashiana Ekansh, and Ashiana Malhar. Malhar is an older deal that we had done, 2017. Not sold, but 2017 as well.
Their first deal in Pune, where our margins are a little compromised, they are not in the 30% or close back. But rest of the projects are, in JV projects, we are also okay with, you know, 27%, 28%, 29%, and we'll get those in the JV projects and the owned projects will be north of 30%. So and across these five projects, I think blended average will be more than 30% across all the, all the five projects.
Okay. I'll join back in queue for further queries. Yeah, thanks for the replies.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to our participants, please press star and One to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Praveen Agrawal, as an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Quick question. So I just wanted to understand, when we underwrite the project, so what is the internal IRR which we look at? And what is the time? So from essentially, if you take a single parcel of land and we do three, four phases, how much time does it take from the first land was purchased and, you know, I see that typically we complete eight to 10 quarters, one phase. But typically, how much time does it take a parcel of land to completely consume it? And what is the internal IRR which we target on a land when we purchase that?
So Praveen, a couple of things. First, from a time cycle, I think the project takes about 12-18 months to get off the ground, before, after purchase. It takes time for approvals, it takes time to get the site ready from a sellability perspective, get our sales office and all that going, and our design ready. So about 12-18 months to launch the project, sometimes even extending up to two years. And from there on, a project takes about five to seven years to be fully consumed, depending on the size of the project and the number of phases that we have. And now coming back from an IRR perspective, we have—we don't really undo IRR calculations. We don't run very, you know, complex, Excel sheets to do IRR calculations.
We have very thumb rule mathematics. In our thumb rule mathematics, at a company level, we look for – we are now looking for a 15% return on equity at the portfolio company level, including uninvested capital at any point of time. So, so, you know, and it becomes very difficult to calculate project-level IRRs by allocating overheads and stuff like that. So as we have a threshold that we want to make a 30% GP margin on the, on the project, and we run our sort of absolute profits that, you know, on a, what we get in a project, and look at a multiple on our investments in there. So that's the kind of thumb rule we do, and we expect to make 15% ROEs, 15%+ ROEs in the company.
That's good to hear. So on the 15% ROE basis, we know that last few years were tough. But at what point then, you know, going forward, do we think that we'll start doing those 15% ROE? I mean, given what we have booked in 2023, these are- will that all yield to... as and when these gets executed and gets booked into our, you know, financials, will they all yield 15% ROE in our on our equity capital?
Yes, that's the expectation, that we should be able to do that. So we also track what we call Economic ROE in the company to see, you know, deliveries can be very delayed, how the company is looking and how that is translating in our. We have a metric for Economic ROE calculations. And our expectations are that the Economic ROE should start crossing the 15% threshold from FY 2023-2024. In 2022-2023, we've hit double digits in our Economic ROE calculations. In 2023-2024, that should start flowing better. So the margins and I earlier question, I think, was around margins by Himanshu. And as margins have improved and the sale volume has improved, the value has improved.
I think, I think we are looking at good times ahead right now.
That's great to hear. So my last question is on the new land parcel, which you are, or the cities which you are looking to acquire or do projects in. Any color on, you know, the land which you're looking to buy?
So one, we did the HSIIDC transaction in Gurugram in March. Gurugram was something we were looking for more work, and I think that's that seems to be fitting in. And other than that, there are two active negotiations going on, and then we'll start looking for more in... So two, two active negotiations in, one in Jaipur and one elsewhere. But that's about it, at this point of time. But that's, that's enough to keep refilling the pipe, right?
Last year, we ended up effectively doing 20 lakh sq ft of deals between HSIIDC and two in Jaipur. Right now, we are also in active discussions for two projects, which together will be another 20 lakh sq ft. We seem to be okay as a replacement stock. I think on aggression to get more and more stock, we are just waiting for prices to be a little bit more conducive.
One, one last question before I hand it over. So is now Gurgaon an integral part of our strategy? Like, you know, we are—historically, we are very strong in Jaipur, Bhiwadi, kind of areas. So is it—would it be fair to assume that, you know, going forward the, for the next foreseeable future, Gurugram will play more and more important role in the overall scheme of things?
Absolutely. Gurugram is going to play a very key role for the company going forward. It drove, I think 40% of the value of area booked for the company last year. Volumes were not as much, pricing was higher. It is going to be an integral part of our strategy. I think that and senior living are going to be the integral aspects of it.
That's good to hear. Nothing else from my side. Thank you.
Thank you, Praveen
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ankit Gupta from Bamboo Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations for the great performance during FY 2023. If you can, you know, in our Amara project, you talked about the new bookings being done at a rate of INR 7,700 per sq ft compared to- in phase two, compared to, you know, phase one pricing of around INR 6,100 per sq ft. So if you can talk about what is driving this increase in realization? Is it the demand in the specific markets? And also, if you can talk about, you know, the pricing across the rest of the key geographies like Jaipur and Bhiwadi and others, Jamshedpur.
Oof! Well, okay. So yeah, most, most of our projects are now getting priced in the INR 4,000-INR 6,000 rupee bracket. There are some less than that as well, like, Jodhpur would be less than INR 4,000, Bhiwadi general housing would be less than INR 4,000, but now Bhiwadi senior living is INR 4,500 odd. And, Pune would be INR 5,000+ , and INR 6,000+ o in senior living expectations there. So different markets have different price points. I think, even in Jamshedpur, we crossed the INR 5,000 benchmark in the last launch that we had. So I think we are operating in the INR 4,000-INR 6,000 bracket across most of the projects.
In Gurugram, I think, in phase one, our brand was not as well established, as I would say. So as when we sold, got some things going, our brand got better established, we got more traction, and then phase two prices improved for us. But the market also has gone up, really high in Gurugram, and I think more than the demand, it's a lack of supply in Gurugram. Very few group housing projects have been launched in Gurugram. Most launches in Gurugram have been around floors, and that lack of supply is helping prices go up.
Sure. And what about how are you seeing traction in pricing across other geographies, key geographies like Jaipur and Bhiwadi?
Prices are ranging between INR 4,000-INR 6,000 there. Prices across the board have gone up, and prices and margins, we are comfortable with prices and margins, at a portfolio level. There will be a few projects which are still concerning, but that I think probably will always be the case.
Sure. And my second question was on, you know, our BD pipeline, and, you know, you said that land prices have become a bit, have gone up quite a bit. So, you know, is it that the demand across the sector has gone up significantly, that developers are bidding the prices up? So, like, what is the reason for such a jump in the price?
I have alluded to this before, that the price increase in land has been driven mostly by plotted developments. And as plotted developments, as like in Gurugram, they have plot prices have come off, plotted developments are not getting licenses anymore. We see demand for land is reduced. We were able to get a good deal, I believe, in HSIIDC land price, because it was only a group housing plot on auction. And therefore, there were not that many bidders for group housing for that plot, and we were able to get value. I don't see a lot of demand for group housing land yet still in the system, but land has alternative uses like plotting, and that had bid it up. I think they started correcting now.
I think, plot prices have either plateaued or started falling a little bit, in a few markets. I think they were fundamentally off the charts.
Sure. And, you know, with our increasing focus on Gurugram, which is the relatively-
Can I request you for a last question, please? Because we have a little bit of a long queue after this show. Just last question.
Last question from mine. So how do you see our realizations over the next two, three years from—we ended this year with around INR 5,000 per sq ft, INR 5,080 per sq ft. With, you know, our increasing focus on Gurugram as well as, you know, other cities. So how do you think, you know, our realization can be over the next two, three years?
We will have, I think, a wider price bracket, and a lot of the portfolio will define that. I think Jaipur will continue to operate in the INR 4,000-INR 5,500, INR 4,000-INR 6,000 kind of a price range. Gurugram will now, I think, be closer to INR 7,500-INR 8,500 sq ft price range, depending on the new projects we take up, where we take up. Senior living, I think we are crossing the INR 5,000 threshold across the board, getting closer to INR 6,000. So there are different things. Bhiwadi and Jodhpur, general housing continue to feel pressure. So a lot of our price points will also now depend on the mix of projects that are sold in a particular period.
Sure. Okay. Okay, thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anuj Sharma from M3 Investment. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you and congratulations. Varun, I don't know if this was discussed, but at the sake of repeating it, if we exclude the project mix, then what was the pricing improvement on a like-to-like basis in FY 2023?
It's very hard to say on a like-to-like basis, things, because, you know, if a project is got completed and you have launched a new project, in that, it becomes very difficult. So we don't do like-to-like tracking, because they're different across different projects, and they have different weights in different years. So taking out weighted average becomes a problem. You know, if a project is selling a few units this year because, you know, it has less stock, its weight might be less in this particular year or higher in the... So it becomes very problematic to look at that. So we look at a portfolio basis. But I think, as I said, INR 4,000, our new normal, so our normal earlier was, I think, INR 3,300, INR 3,400 a sq ft to operate on, like a base case scenario.
I think that base case scenario is shifted to INR 4,000 a square. So maybe that's the way to look at it. Like maybe a, you know, 15%-20% shift over a 24-month period is probably an ideal way to say where our base is shifted.
Okay. Okay, got that. And, and just an extension, so going forward, even if I take a 20%, from INR 3,300-INR 4,000, a 10%-15%, is something which we can look on like-for-like basis, across portfolio? And which, which are the markets wherein you think you can push through pricing little easily, in your whole portfolio? Thank you.
...So I would not comment on how much price increase we look at year-on-year. If you had asked me this at the beginning of the year, last year, I wouldn't have said the kind of increase we saw over the last two years. Unfortunately, I'm not able to give a call on that. That said, confidence on pricing in Gurugram, Jaipur and Senior Living, and Jamshedpur are generally the highest as of now.
All right.
So, okay. And I see, that's that to continue.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of VP Rajesh from Baillie Gifford. Please go ahead.
Hi, congratulations, Varun. Just a few quick questions. One, on the realization that you were just talking about, our increase in realization has been much lower than the general inflation over the last 10 years. So are you consciously trying to push the realization up by getting into the projects which are higher price points, or not really, and you are just going to see how it shifts?
I think, VP, I think 10 years of inflation has been captured or seven years of inflation has been captured right now. If I, if I really inflate prices from, let's say, a 2010 perspective in markets we are in, we would be hardly at inflation yet. So I think, there is tough-- on that basis, there is room, but, you know, you never know if 2010 is a good baseline number to take. But there was a lot of catching up to do in, real estate prices in general, because there were no increases for a few years. And, and, and there is still some catching up to do in some markets.
Got you. My second question is on the ROE side. It's nice to see that you are moving up the guidance to 15%. But just curious to know what has been the ROE for this year, if you had already done the numbers on the, you know, not on the, reported P&L, but the economic value that you track.
Yeah. Hi, Rajesh, Vikas here. So-
Hi, Vikas.
We have been improving our ROE year-on-year. So this year, in FY 2023, we have crossed the double-digit number, although directionally the target is to achieve a 15% kind of a number, about which, Varunji spoke a while back. But this year we have certainly improved, and we are in double digits now.
Okay, great. Congratulations, and that's all I have.
Thank you. Next question is on the line of Shivam, as an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello. Sir, I just heard your guidance. Will it be INR 1,500 crore for FY 2024, right?
Yes, yes.
Okay. And, can you give us an estimate of what kind of PAT percentage can we expect? Like, just as a five-day.
This 1,500 is not a revenue number. This is a pre-sales number, value area booked.
Yeah, yeah, that, that I understand. Like, how much of the PAT percentage usually we target, like if we are doing a pre-sale of INR 1,500 crore, so-
So we are targeting a 30% GP. We target about, let's say, 4%-4.5% of sales and marketing expenses. The overheads are a fixed overhead number. It's not a percentage number. There is operating leverage. Those are reported. So let's say, if I exclude depreciation and finance from that, or in that, last year, that cost I NR 67 crore.
6%-7%.
Okay. Yeah. So last year, that cost overall was about INR 65-INR 70 crore, according to us. So that's the number. So you can, once the from the P&L, you can break the actual overhead and run that number.
Hello?
Yeah. So on the overhead number, your actual overhead number-
Sir, we are unable to hear you clearly. Again, the voice is cracking.
Can you hear me now?
No. Just give me a minute, I will quickly reconnect you. Ladies and gentlemen, we request you all to please remain connected while we reconnect the management. Thank you. ... Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for patiently waiting. We have the management line reconnected. Sir, over to you.
Yeah, hi.
Yeah, hi.
We had a question on margins.
Yeah, the PAT. Any, any estimate PAT margin percentage? Any estimate, I don't want the-
I'll let you walk through this. Okay. So we expect a 30% GP margin. Okay. Currently, sales and marketing expenses on new projects are running at about 4%-4.5%. Which were earlier a much larger number, and they started trending downwards on sales and marketing. Administrative and corporate overheads were running about 7% or 7.7% odd. You take off your tax from that, and then you'll get to a PAT margin. So hopefully we can operate at a PAT margin of about 13%-15%. Depending on, you know, what our blended GP margin on sales and marketing costs are there in particular.
Okay. Sir, any guidance that you can give that how much is the current land bank potential in terms of sales? Any target, if possible, if any internal target you have?
Yeah. So in terms of... We have already booked about, nearly about INR 2,100 crore of stock, which is booked but not recognized from revenue perspective. And we have another, a crore and some sq ft to sell.
Okay.
I would say that blended, you know, you can take that value at about INR 5,500, so about INR 5,500 crore of sale value from that.
Okay. Okay, thank you. Thank you.
Yeah. So but-
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Jain, as an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah, so I heard you mention this about this Economic ROE once or twice. So can you explain a little bit how you're calculating this Economic ROE?
So we are just basically taking, we do some math on equivalent area constructed. We do a math on the area booked. We apply what we have as a per square foot margin to those numbers, and then take out where we are looking to go. So it just gives a sense of the direction of where reported numbers will get. Because, you know, we get this, basically, our job is to sell and to produce, right? And we take that number of units we are selling, number of units we are producing, apply a blended average to a per square foot margin that we calculate through our costs and our sales, and then calculate that margin out.
We will, we'll give a little bit more detailed explanation in the annual report this time, and you can have a sense of it.
Okay. Any color on buyback or something? I think you had mentioned last quarter or the previous quarter about discussing with the board about a buyback or something.
We haven't yet firmed up anything or anything like that. As some analysts had suggested on the call, we have been contemplating it, been understanding it, and trying to wrap our heads around it. We don't have any specific color on this.
Okay, sure. Nothing more from my side.
Thank you, Rahul.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rishi Singhal, as an individual investor. Please go ahead.
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Gupta Ji, actually...
[Foreign language]. They have different implications, and the hotel makes on our invested capital, makes about 15% returns right now. So we are okay with that kind of return. A little bit here or there on the detail, but the hotel is not something that is concerning us too much and it does not have significant amount of capital deployed, but there are other items that we slowly and slowly try to dispose of and move goes ahead and school is an asset that we do intend to transact.
Okay, sir, the second question was that since in senior living we have more focus on Bhiwadi, are we looking at any other center in NCR? Keeping in mind that Bhiwadi is repeatedly named the most polluted city, does this act as an obstacle in our long-term strategy in any way?
There are two things. One is that we are increasing our focus in senior living and in other cities so we haven't looked at any other place in NCR either. Our view is that we should increase work in Bombay and Chennai. Bombay, Pune. So we have also started a launch project in Talegaon. With just the pre-launch process go activated there and for Bhiwadi I would say that what they say that most polluted city is, that where we operate, that thing is not true. So where they have installed the meter, that is in the middle of the industrial area of Bhiwadi and where our projects are far from it so once you come into the city into the project, you will not see that. We have also taken meter reading there from our side. Air as compared to Delhi, where we live and Gurugram, where there is another option Noida and Bhiwadi is less polluted than where I live in Delhi and not Bhiwadi, where our Ashiana Nirmay, Ashiana Advik and Ashiana Town are less polluted than where I live in peak winter. So now what is it that okay, a little bit name is given to it. According to me, from that sales are not facing trouble. Particularly in Bhiwadi. Yes, this is that if we have to increase the market in NCR then we will do somewhere else then surely the market will increase, because new options will open. Many people find Bhiwadi far also. So we can open new things there. But currently our focus is more in Chennai and Pune, for launches. [Foreign language].
[Foreign language].
Sir, last question please.
[Foreign language].
Very well said, sir. Hearing this, okay, one indirect question, by the way, you are not responsible for answering this. As I see, the cycle is going up, and mutual funds are selling continuously, Ashiana shares. So, meaning, do they have some special information with these guys, which we don't have? Is there something like that?
You should ask them that. I have no clue. I don't know. I don't know anything. You should ask them, if you want to ask, you ask them.
Okay, sir. Okay. Thank you very much. It was very informative. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Vivek Joshi, from BP Capital LLP. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, just coming back to the queue again. So, you know, EBITDA margins have been low, if I understand from what you've told in the call, is because of the high error.
Vivek, your voice is breaking. We couldn't understand you.
Yeah. Is it clear now? Is it better?
Yeah.
Yeah. So what I wanted to understand was the EBITDA in the last three, four years have been, like, low. Is it because of, like, cost overruns, projects which were of-
No. So EBITDA margins over the last few years or going forward, you mean?
Over the last few years. Just to understand, like, if the costs were always on project-to-project basis, why was the EBITDA margin so low?
Has been because of depressed volumes. So what has happened is our overheads were structured for a much larger set of operations, and then our operations declined. So decline in operations because, you know, volume of square footage declined, so our margins started getting hurt. So that moment is where we really, really got hurt was basically that. And second, yes, we got stuck in a higher operations cost as compared to sales price, because sales price compressed or remained stagnant over 5-6 years in terms of per square foot. But your construction costs increased, you were locked into high land costs, thinking sale prices will actually increase, where they actually decreased.
So our assumptions on some of the projects we took at the peak of the cycle went out of whack, and we had lower volumes, so our fixed costs started hurting. So we got crushed from two, three places, yeah.
Yeah. And all the best. It's wonderful to see you optimistic. So optimistic. I've been listening to your calls for many years. This is the most optimistic I've heard you. All the best!
Oh, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Darshan Shah from Multi-Act Equity Consultancy. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Sorry, I joined call a bit late. Can you just give us so what kind of area booking that you are looking for in FY 24? And yeah.
We are looking at INR 1,500 crore worth of value of area booked in FY 2024.
With realization of INR 5,000-INR 5,500?
Yeah, somewhere in, somewhere in between that, yeah.
Okay. Another question is, how is the response in Prakriti Phase Two? I think you have started registrations from 18th May onwards.
Okay. So I'm actually not aware exactly how the response in that particular project is, but we were expecting a good response. I will have to check back and get back to you on that.
Okay, thanks. That's it.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is a follow-up from Himanshu Upadhyay, from o3 PMS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Varun. This is you-- what did you state about business development, and how are you looking at the geographies where you want to focus in terms of business development for next two years or FY 2024, 2025?
Yeah. So we want to concentrate on existing geographies only, Himanshu, where we are outside of senior living. For senior living, we are looking at a couple of more cities. And right now, the thing is, we are doing a replacement stock addition mostly. So we added about 20 lakh sq ft last year, two deals in Jaipur, one in Gurgaon. We are in active discussion for another 20 lakh sq ft total across two transactions that we spoke about. Till markets become a little bit more conducive for more transactions, we will look to add replacement stock and a little bit more. And I think, and I said, now I see land prices becoming a lot more viable.
Sale prices have gone up, land prices have remained flat. The plotting market is not doing as well as it was doing earlier. So the demand for land from the plotted developers has reduced, which is lending to prices on the land being plateauing and capping off. So I would see... Hopefully, we'll start seeing more aggression maybe in six to eight months' time from us, or maybe 12 months' time for inbound deals. But till then, it's mostly Replacement Stock kind of BD that we're focusing on.
... You stated about this, plotted development. Is it just a good NCR phenomenon, or you are seeing this across the board, even Chennai and, let's say, Pune market?
Look, plot development has been a Gurugram, NCR, and Gurugram and Jaipur phenomena. That's where we were looking to do more BD, because we needed more stock there, and we see volumes going up. Chennai and Pune, we have, I think, good stock right now to sell, and senior living projects to actually launch. Chennai, we had closed close to about 18.5 lakh sq ft across two projects with senior living that has to be launched. Pune, we are just in the pre-launch zone of a project in Talegaon for senior living. So there we had already stock, we were not aggressively looking. So I'm hard to comment what's going on there on land prices.
My plotted development, please keep to Gurgaon and Jaipur as a context.
Okay. Okay. And can you give an idea of, let's say, from FY 2020, okay, let's take a FY 2020 base figure. How much would the land prices have increased, and the realizations would have increased in the NCR, Jaipur, and let's say, the Chennai market, where our major sales are happening from?
So NCR and Jaipur, land prices would have gone up, close to double since FY 2020.
Okay. Sale prices would have gone up 20% on the base, but 40%-50% also in some places.
Okay. See, coming to the next thing, see, we see a lot of optimism, okay, across the real estate, and we are seeing all listed companies are thinking about business development or doing business development. Everybody's business development in FY 2023 is higher than what they did in FY 2020. All real estate companies I am talking about. As an outsider, how do I understand that people are not going overboard in the sector now? Means because of the, what we had a long issues in the cycle. In the last 10 years, how do I understand that thing? Are we reaching that...? Yeah.
So one thing therefore is to look at joint venture transactions, right? And in joint venture transactions, like revenue share, do you see increasing revenue shares that people are providing? Are they able to control it? So that will give a good sense. Start asking for how the math looks on those. Do you think people are pushing the sales prices to make the math work? Those are a couple of things that you would like to look at. So, you know, we have made a basic idea that we, you know, we will not cross this kind of a revenue share threshold whatsoever. And, you know, if you do it at a revenue share threshold, at least you are protected on the margin front a little bit.
So we are doing those kind of thought processes ourselves. But you'll have to run the numbers on them, ma'am. Running the land price numbers are not a very hard thing to do. It's a very simple thing to do to see whether they make sense or not.
Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you.
The next question is from, Shrey, as an individual investor. Please go ahead. Shrey?
Uh, hello.
Yes, please go ahead.
My question is, a couple of calls back you had spoken about, you would have to increase the base of your company as you grow. Could you give me a sense of what base are you targeting as, I mean, across cycles, something that you would want to increase to?
Yeah, we are targeting a 15% ROE.
Yes.
In case we don't raise capital-
No, I'm-
Somewhere around that, maybe a couple of percentage points more for dividend or something like that. But, you know, that mid-low teens, low teens kind of a growth rate is what we're looking at.
No, I wasn't referring to ROE. I was referring to the scale of the company. So, when you spoke about the base scale of the company, are you targeting a certain base scale of the company, for... I mean, are you-
I, I-
Are you planning to increase that scale?
Ideally, we would like to change the base scale of the company to twice of what it is in a five-year kind of a threshold.
Okay. And how would we take the base to be, as in, what would be now, if you could give some color on that? What base would you consider as of now?
So right now, I think, the base scale of the company would be around... In a down cycle, we would have upped the base scale of the company to about 14 lakh sq ft-15 lakh sq ft. Now, and roughly about INR 700-INR 750 crore of sales as a base case scenario in poor cycles is probably where I would estimate that to be. But let's be careful, that's an estimate. It's not a... It's not somewhere where I can say this is what the reality looks like. It's an estimate that I have a basis of my understanding of where we are operating.
Yes, thanks.
So that's ideally what we would like to shift in the company: to shift the base scale of the company to maybe, you know, about 25, 30 lakh sq ft. And if the cycles are good to be doing better than that as well. And I expect the real estate cycle to last a few good years right now. It's still in the beginning of the cycle.
Thank you. That's helpful. That's the only question I had.
Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. It is the last question from the line of Rishi Singhal as an Ashiana investor. Please go ahead.
[Foreign langauage].
[Foreign language].
[Foreign language].
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be our last question for today. I now hand the conference back to the management for the closing comments. Thank you and over to you.
We would like to thank all of you for being on this call and being so patient with all the question and answers. If you are unable to take any question, please feel free to write to us directly or reach out to us directly and with that you would like to conclude the call. A lot of the material we have spoken about is posted on our website and you can also email your queries for any further clarification. Thank you once again for taking the time to join us on this call.
Thank you very much! Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Ashiana Housing, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.