Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Q3 FY 2022 Earnings Call of Ashiana Housing Limited. Please note that this webinar is being recorded, and transcript of the webinar will be made available in a week's time from the call. The results and the investor presentation have been mailed to you, and it is also available on the stock exchange. In case anyone does not have a copy of the same, please do write to us, and we'll be happy to send it over to you. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our discussion today might contain forward-looking statements. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
We caution not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinion only as of this date of the presentation. Please keep in mind that we are not obligating ourselves to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. To take us through the results of this quarter and answer your questions, we have today with us Mr. Varun Gupta, Whole-time Director of the company, and Mr. Vikash Dugar, CFO. Mr. Vikash will make his opening remarks, and then we'll move over to the Q&As. During the course of the presentation, all investors will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity to ask question once the presentation concludes. With that said, I'll hand over the floor to Mr. Vikash Dugar. Over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, everyone. Hope you all are safe and in sound health. Thank you for joining us to discuss performance of the third quarter of FY 2022 of Ashiana Housing. I extend a warm welcome to all of you. Area booked recorded in Q3 FY 2022 was 4.21 lakh sq ft, as compared to 3.57 lakh sq ft in Q3 FY 2021, and 4.51 lakh sq ft in Q2 FY 2022. In Q3, there were healthy bookings from Anmol Phase Two, Gurgaon, which was launched in Q3, and Shubham Phase Four, Chennai. We handed over 2.13 lakh sq ft in Q3 FY 2022, out of which 1.2 lakh sq ft was delivered in partnerships.
This was against a delivery of 3.94 lakh sq ft in Q3 FY 2021, out of which 2.14 lakh sq ft was delivered in partnerships. Revenue recognized from completed projects in Q3 FY 2022 was INR 30.90 crores, versus INR 62.42 crores in Q3 FY 2021. Total comprehensive income in Q3 FY 2022 was negative at INR 3.28 crore, vis-à-vis positive INR 13.26 crores in Q3 FY 2021. Total comprehensive income was negative INR 6.36 crores in Q2 FY 2022. Pre-tax operating cash flow, modified and before any land payment, was positive at INR 29.22 crore, Q3 FY 2022, versus positive at INR 28.18 crore in Q2 FY 2022.
Equivalent area constructed was at 3.73 lakh sq ft in Q3 FY 2022, versus 4.50 lakh sq ft in the previous quarter, and the same was 3.54 lakh sq ft in Q3 FY 2021. There has been delay in some projects due to pandemic and rains. The expected completion dates have been revised accordingly and shared in the presentation. On this note, I would like to conclude my remarks. We will now be happy to discuss any questions or suggestions that you may have.
Thank you. Anyone with a question, request you to please raise your hand. We'll just wait for a moment, and then we'll begin the question/answer. First question is from Himanshu Upadhyay from o3 Capital. Please go ahead. Yeah, Himanshu, if you could unmute your line.
Hello, am I audible now?
Yes.
Okay. Yeah, so the first question is to Varun, okay. See, Varun, we are seeing price rise in various micro markets across the country, okay?
Mm-hmm.
But how fast or slow is the price appreciation in Senior Living? So is it a one-to-one correlation with our normal housing or you or it generally takes more time? Any, any idea you can give on that, and as it is a bigger proportion of our sales in future, when we have more projects on Senior Living in Chennai and all those markets? So just some idea that would be helpful.
Thank you, Himanshu. I would say that they are not completely linked and following in any manner whatsoever. That not following each other in a regular basis or something whereby you could say Senior Living prices are following regular housing. In fact, if you would say over the last 5, 6 years, we have had a challenge raising regular housing prices across our markets, but both in Ashiana Nirmay, Bhiwadi, and Ashiana Shubham, Chennai, we have been able to increase prices and quite substantially, particularly in Chennai. So, I would say they're not as linked together because, again, I think the price, housing price is driven by supply, and Senior Living hasn't had much supply right now to have driven prices downwards in that particular kind of product.
Whereas regular housings had a problem with excess supply across markets. So they're not linked together much in my opinion, in terms of cycles. Obviously, prices are linked, like, you know, if in a particular, micro market, regular apartment prices are high, Senior Living prices would also be high. But cyclically, I would say they are not as intrinsically linked as you think.
So, one just corollary to it is, so the upside would also be slowly and steadily much more steadier than the regular housing or regular maybe for us might be increasing at a faster rate in future or in near future, looking at the things.
Yes, but Senior Living, we are already enjoying very good margins, so I'm not-
Okay.
You know, not particularly concerned about pricing.
Okay. And our second question was, if we continue to see the improvement in real estate, okay, we have taken seven land parcels for ourselves. I am not including Bhiwadi and Kolkata, which have been historical and all that stuff.
Okay.
And we have next phases to be launched. But with the current pipeline of product, what we have, do you think we can achieve sales of 2.5 and 3 million sq ft in next, let's say, FY 2024? And what type of launches do we require? So means if we want to reach 2.5 million sq ft, the existing product, we have only 1 million sq ft of inventory, okay? So 4.1 minus 3.1. So how, how are you looking at it? And how confident are we that we have the product run now ready to launch and reach those targets in FY 2023 or FY 2024, whenever we-
So, to get to that number that you're talking about, Himanshu, we will need these projects, new projects, to get launched. Existing phases, new phases of existing projects wouldn't be enough, and therefore I would use a nd I would also refer to the Kolkata project, we do not, Kolkata is in a different zone, but, outside of that, Bhiwadi project also needs to be launched, to get to that, ready. In terms of my opinion, we, to get to about 2.5-3 million sq ft, we have enough product now, projects in all micro markets except for Jaipur. Jaipur, we need to sign up, I think two more projects over and above what we have to get to that ready.
We are in the process of dialogue there, but just land prices have run up a little bit higher than preferred and just a little concerned about margins there therefore. So we are looking for transactions where we can, we are able to maintain the margins that we are looking for in Jaipur. And that's the context there. Outside of that, I think we have enough land pipe and project pipe. We just need to get them approved and then launched.
Two last questions, two last questions, okay? The seven land parcels which we have for development, I am again not including Bhiwadi and Kolkata. What is the timeline for those project launches? Means, how many of them in FY 2023, and how many will go to FY 2024?
Okay. So I will include Bhiwadi in this now, Himanshu, because from a launch perspective, it does not make a difference whether we got this now or we got this historically. Kolkata, we don't have any line of sight, so I will stop talking about Kolkata. But out of those eight projects, including Bhiwadi, I am hoping to launch everything by FY 2024 for sure. Of eight, our opinion is if we get six in FY 2020 to 2023, we'll be good.
Okay. Okay, and one last thing. See, Jamshedpur is one of our very, very strong positioned market, okay?
Mm.
What type of premium or project IRR or profitability you are able to get in that market versus, let's say, Jaipur market? And how different can the two markets be? And, yeah.
It's difficult to compare, yeah. Both, both markets we enjoy good premiums, both our markets we enjoy good, returns. But the Jaipur market is far larger, so in an absolute terms, it's a far more important market than Jamshedpur, itself. But both those markets are such where, capital requirements are lower, margins are higher. The capital requirements are lower because more JVs are up on offer. More JVs are up on offer because we enjoy a good brand equity, and because we also enjoy a brand, good brand equity, we are able to charge premium pricing as well. The intent is to get all our markets in, and get in that zone in the markets we are in.
So, like, Chennai is becoming an interesting play from a Senior Living perspective, where we can see margin expansion and a brand premium coming into play.
Okay. Thank you from my side. I will join back for questions, if I have more.
Thank you, Himanshu.
Thank you. We have the next question from Vivek Chaturvedi. Request you to name your institution, if applicable. Yeah, you can go ahead.
Hi, am I audible?
Yes.
Hi, Varun. Varun, just a slightly broad picture question, since I am an investor over the last year and this is my first call. Just wanted to understand in terms of looking at the whole company from a CEO and a promoter perspective, what do you generally target as a kind of the return on capital that the company employs? I mean, because the accounting in all construction companies and real estate companies is a little difficult to understand compared to the other sectors. How do you internally look at, and how do you benchmark yourself in terms of return on capital, IRR, combined across different projects?
So we are looking at a return on equity post-tax of 15% at the corporate level. That's what we are gunning for. It's become the golden number internally also to focus on, instead of top-line metrics or volume metrics or margin metrics, I think, we are going to drive the business from this perspective. To internally track whether we are on the right path to reported 15% ROE numbers, we have an internal operating metric and basis where we track whether we are on the right path to get there. I think that's what we are looking for right now. We have put that thing together, Vikash just put that thing together, with his team, within the finance team over the last two and a half years. That's what we're targeting.
Okay. And what do you say would be your cost of capital? I mean, both debt and equity put together, it would be in the ballpark range of what? About 12%-13%?
Okay. So, Vivek, I have no ways to really gauge cost of equity, or we don't really gauge cost of equity within the company, so it'll be hard to comment on that. Vikash, would you like to take the question on the cost of debt capital that we have today?
Yeah. So the cost of debt capital has progressively over a period of, I would say, 3-4 years, it has gradually come down. We are doing project-level funding at around 9%-10%, somewhere in the vicinity of that. And even the larger ticket loans that we have done over the years are in 10% kind of. So 10%, roughly, I would say, would be the cost of debt that we are hovering at right now. It used to be 12%-13%, couple of years back, even including the construction funding, but that we have managed to bring it down over the years.
How do you look at debt equity? I mean, do you look at it from an individual perspective, or do you have an individual project debt equity ratio in mind, as well as the overall corporate level?
No, we look at that overall corporate level, and we are quite low on debt. I mean, our borrowing strategy also is countercyclical in the sense that during upcycle, we prefer to pay off the debt, and during downcycle, we leverage as and when required. And gradually, with the concept of this computing returns and looking at returns at a project and location level, we are trying to raise funding wherever required at the project level. But then, we look at debt equity ratio only at an overall corporate level.
Vikash, I would just like to add that from an ideal perspective, we wouldn't want any debt, whereby all construction is financed through customer receivables. Yeah. That's the intent.
So the construction funding is more like a bridge funding, as and when required in large project, just to add to our overall financing arrangement. But then, structurally, we prefer working capital funding coming through customer advances, primarily.
Yeah. And just one last question, with regards to, say, the coming financial year, FY 2023, how much growth in terms of, area booked or area constructed are we looking at in FY 2023 across projects?
Those internal workings are presently going on. Can't share any number at this juncture. We don't generally give guidances also. Varun if you'd like to add.
Yeah, exactly, Vikash, I was going to say we haven't worked those numbers internally yet out. And, well, yeah, again, Vivek, I think, and internally, the larger focus has been: what do we need to do to get to 15% ROE? Whether it's increasing margins, increasing construction, increasing sales, we look at whatever needs to be done from that perspective now. So but, we haven't worked those numbers internally yet.
So would you be able to share that with the investors in the next call?
We typically don't give guidance on that number, but we'll come back to you if we, if we have a sense of it, maybe in the next. I think what we will give a good sense of though is the amount of area we look to deliver in the next financial year. That we will give a better sense of.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from me.
Thank you. Before we move to the next question, I'll just take a question from the chat board. So Devanshu writes: There's been more than one instance of misappropriation of funds, one recently and one a few years ago. Can the management explain why this happened the second time, and what it is doing to avoid such mishaps going ahead?
I, I will take up what happened. Vikash ji can take up what we are looking to do. I, I think, so the first, the one that happened 5 years ago was significantly smaller figure in size, significantly smaller. It wasn't as... And that process, what we saw as a gap, we plugged in that particular process and we moved ahead. And there were in one location and in general, processes were fixed, but with decentralized processes in one particular location, I think processes were not followed. And overall, a little bit more laxity came in during the pandemic to make things move a little faster in that.
Our processes and systems just didn't keep up with the, with the size of the company over the last 5, 6 years, I think, with number of cities, number of locations, and us scaling back, towards a larger size of revenues over the last 3 years. That did not happen. I think, we are taking steps to, resolve that this does not happen. Vikashji, would you like to share, some of those, things, please?
Yeah, sure. So, one thing that we are doing is that we are implementing a new ERP. It's called Farvision. It's a well-known ERP in the real estate sector. So that initiative presently has got kick-started. We are, next few months, we are targeting a go-live date. So that, that is as a project is going on in full swing. And apart from that, we also, over a period of time, have realized that with the growing complexities, growing requirements in our business, the way we have grown over the years, the kind of business controls that we need, we have decided to appoint a one centralized big internal audit firm who could guide us and hand hold us in terms of, you know, further strengthening our internal controls.
So Grant Thornton has been appointed. That, again, is in public domain. We have shared that as an outcome of the last board meeting. So these are the two important initiatives. And apart from that, routine kind of changes wherever required in terms of division of responsibilities, the standard internal control practices, SOPs, wherever they're required to be strengthened, and our governance processes, that we are taking care of, and which ways. So-
Thank you.
Those are the initiatives.
Thank you. We have the next question from, line of V.P. Rajesh, from Banyan Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, thank you. Hi, guys. My first question is regarding Milakpur. So if you can go and comment on what has changed there, that now you are thinking of developing that land?
VP Rajesh, we are not. First, hello, and we are not looking to develop-
Right.
Milakpur. Milakpur, Milakpur remains in litigation with the government and the acquisition proceedings, which have been challenged.
Mm-hmm.
The land that was Ashiana Town Gamma.
Oh, I see. Okay.
Yeah, that's been replanned as Ashiana Advik as a full Senior Living project. We will be developing that and launching that. I think in Ashiana Nirmay, we are at the tag end of selling out what we have. This is where we see a larger sort of fit for the company now-
Ashiana Advik.
In Bhiwadi, on Senior Living.
Okay. And then Ashiana Town still has some inventory. When do you think that will get exhausted?
I wish I knew we were going quickly. Last quarter became slower.
I know. Yeah.
I'm hoping in the next 18-24 months, we are, we're able to get that. Like in our. As I said, in our return on equity perspective, that is coming, and that is built down to the branches. One of the things is to ensure that capital is, you know, divested from, which are not producing the returns, commensurate to the capital employed and completed stock generally does not.
Mm-hmm.
So in releasing capital from Ashiana Town is a very important step there. I think it was going well, and then it got stuck a little bit. I, I, I think we are trying new things to resolve that. I'm hopeful that in the next 24 months, we should be out of Ashiana Town.
Okay. If I'm correct, then aside from this Gamma land, there is no other land that you have in Bhiwadi, aside from Milakpur, which is in litigation, but there's nothing else which can be developed over the next 2-3 years.
No.
There's nothing else?
Yes.
Okay.
No, Ashiana Tarang project continues. Ashiana Tarang has a lot of room for development, so I think that will continue as a regular housing project. I think we'll have close to 1 million sq ft in Ashiana Tarang left to develop.
Oh, I see. Okay. And then, all the land that you have purchased this year, by the way, congratulations on that. That looks good that you have built up your land inventory. Have you used IFC facility or, you have done JDs or how? If you can just comment on that, what has been the mix around the capital utilized for these acquisitions?
So, we have used IFC facility, so I'll walk through. So we have done the three projects in joint development revenue share arrangements. One in Jamshedpur, one in Jaipur, and one in Pune. So they have very little-
Mm-hmm.
-capital requirements, as such, compared to an acquisition.
Mm-hmm.
But we have done one project in Gurgaon, which is with IFC financing a large part of the acquisition cost, and some bank debt through ICICI Bank as well. They, they could finance some of the statutory levies that was getting reimbursed.
Mm-hmm.
The last bit is the one project in Chennai, which we have purchased completely through our funds right now. There were some regulatory issues for the IFC to deploy funds in that. I think by April end, by for sure, but we are hoping earlier, we should get IFC share of the capital there and refinance out some of the equity that we have put in through that perspective, and therefore, IFC will finance that as well. That's the Mahindra World City purchase in Chennai.
Right. Right,
One we've purchased with Arihant Group jointly. So overall, there is, you know, capital has not been concentrated in a particular project, and we have 100% share. It's been spread a little bit.
Mm-hmm. No, that's good. That's good. And in terms of the market, you know, you talked about Chennai becoming a stronghold, Jaipur obviously doing well for us. What's the prognosis on Pune and Gurgaon markets?
So, let me take up Gurgaon first. Gurgaon, I think one thing has happened. I think that, you know, we had a brand in NCR that we could leverage, in general from Bhiwadi. The Sohna project has also done well. Now, in terms of sales, and getting us a brand, it's not making margins or profits, but, over the last, let's say, 12-15 months, sales have picked up and, brand has been, improved. I think the second project in Gurgaon, Ashiana Amara, will be a very good project from a returns perspective for us, from a brand perspective for us. It's, it's a great. We had a lot of time to do a great design. We've done a fabulous design on the project. It's large size.
So, I have a view that we're doing well in Gurgaon, very well. In Pune, it will still be a lot of legwork, the first project in regular housing, and we'll have to establish our brand. But I think we will learn from the mistakes we've made in Gurgaon and do better.
Your voice is breaking.
We'll be able to,
Yeah, Varun, can't hear you very clearly.
Because it's a distinct product. I said in Senior Living, I would expect in Pune also that the brand building will be swifter, like it has happened in Chennai, as compared to the time it took in Gurgaon for regular housing. Just because the space is not so, and we have a distinct project, and I think we'll be able to leverage Lavasa a little bit in terms of database and people knowing us for Senior Living there. Even though Lavasa as a project has not done well, and I think that's more to do with this Lavasa Cities issue, which hopefully will also get resolved. But our project and our customers who are living there are happy. So I think Senior Living would be an easier place to create a brand and margins in Pune as well.
Between the two cities, have you sort of got the sense that which one will be a better market for us in the long term, or is it TBD?
It is like, you know, I think, it is TBD. My view is that Gurgaon for regular housing and Chennai for Senior Living will definitely be good markets for us in the future. I don't see a challenge on that. The Pune regular housing will- is a, is a more of a TBD going forward.
Okay, understood. And then on the other question, when do you see yourself hitting that number? Is it fiscal year 2023 or 2024?
Well, fiscal year 2023-
Yeah.
In my opinion, we will hit 15% ROE on a reported basis. The question is whether it will sustain. I think, that's the larger bit, that's what we're asking. If not, you know, so it's not repeating in 2024, will it sustain after that, 2025, 2026, 2027? I think that sustainability question will get answered on an operating basis in 2023 as well. So financial year 2023 is key for us, on both perspectives. One, on a reported basis, we have a lot of deliveries coming up. So hitting reported profits and getting to 15% ROE on a reported basis, and getting to the getting the operating numbers in that reported ROEs of 20%-15%, start becoming sustainable, going forward. I think it's an important year.
And what about the economic profit? Are you already there? That is-
No, we are not there yet. So 2023 would be also important basis to get there. So around-
Okay.
When I said operating, that, that's what I was meaning.
Oh, okay, okay. I see. And then just last question: If I look in your land inventory, and if I take Milakpur and Kolkata out, you have about seven million developed area potential with you. When do you, or what period do you think this will all get exhausted?
Yeah, a six-year view for all of this and the future projects inventory. So we have about, you know, seven plus four, 11 million sq ft, plus some, one million to sell here as well. So I'm hoping that in six years we should exhaust all of this and add, and add more projects and exhaust them partly going forward.
I see. Okay. All right. Thanks, that's very helpful, Varun. Appreciate it.
Thank you, Vipin. Yeah.
We have the next question from Rohit Potti. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. So I have just one question. I mean, with the upcycle coming, we are looking to scale up, to the extent possible. I was just curious, you know, given the approach to building that we have, in the sense it's more of a full stack model rather than an outsource model that most other developers use, how do you see the internal capabilities scaling up in terms of the construction capability and selling capability, et cetera?
Do you see, so let's say, I mean, for us to go from, let's say, 2-5 million, do you see us being able to control as much of the process as we do right now, or do you see part of it being outsourced, going forward?
With construction, I don't see a challenge. As we scale up, I don't see construction as a challenge in scaling up. Sales capabilities, we'll have to build. So we have decided to work with channel partners in Gurgaon and Pune. It is one of those aspects of building capabilities in some markets. So will we need to build these kind of capabilities in Jaipur of a Senior Living role? But in Gurgaon, in Pune, we'll have to build those capabilities as we scale up from a sales perspective.
Yeah, I remember that in Anmol, we started also using channel partners for the first time. So how has that experience been in terms of, customer expectations versus how the channel partner sold, et cetera? So are you guys happy, and is that gonna be an important part of the sales channel in Gurgaon, even after we establish the brand?
Yes, I think, Rohit, the in Gurgaon, in Pune, channel partners are going to be an important part of the sales channel even after brand is established. I think the market is very difficult for a consumer to navigate because of the sheer number, volume of projects that are there, and he lands up at a channel partner's doors, but nonetheless. That said, we have evolved into a model where we control the sales process to a large extent because our in-house sales team or the entire customer facilitation on site is done by our sales team. So, therefore, we haven't had an issue of a material issue of customer expectations being different from what we are delivering or promising to them. I think I have agreed with what I-
I can't hear you, Varun. I'm not sure if it's at my end or at your end.
Okay, so I'll repeat it once more. Rohit, I said, we haven't seen any conflicts whereby we have seen that customer expectations are different from what we are delivering or what we promised to deliver, even with channel partner sales. And that's largely driven because we control the sales process at site. So-
Okay, perfect. That's it from me, Varun. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you, Rohit.
We have the next question from Apoorva Shah. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes.
Yes. So was just trying to understand, from a, a future's perspective, the input costs, you know, the margin pressures. I think, there were some margin pressures, and going forward, how do you see that playing out, you know, in terms of your ability to increase or pass on price increases across projects? If you could throw some light on that, and, you know, how will it affect the pricing? And, and how is the on ground, you know, in terms of some developers have reported, where in price increases have been taken and there has been, little to no impact on sales volumes really. So, you know, so how, how, how do you see that situation evolving? Thanks.
For us also, Apoorva, we've been able to pass, increase prices. If you see our quarterly prices, quarterly average sale prices crossed INR 4,000 for the first time. A little bit of that has to do with mix with Anmol contributing a bit of it, but we've also increased sale prices across the board, and, those-
No, future perspective, as in going forward, actually. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah.
Yeah. So I would, I would expect that sale price increases are there. My view has been that it's real estate is in a bull cycle for a long period of time, and we should be able to increase sale prices. So in existing land, I think construction input costs increases should more than be covered and margins should expand in the future with sales prices. That's my particular view. Where the challenge is that land prices have also moved up in a few markets, capturing that future outlook in place also. And that becomes a little bit of a challenge, so that concern is there. A new project that will pick up-
Right.
Will we be able to find margins and value?
So as of now, I mean, I know it's difficult to crystal ball gaze, but six months down the line, how do you see that situation evolving? I mean, what or what kind of price increases would suffice if land prices move on from here or you don't get them at favorable prices, you know? And do you see land prices moving up materially from, say, one year?
So in Jaipur, the land, current land prices are factoring a 10% sales price higher than today.
Okay, okay. So, so that should suffice, I mean, with price increases itself, right? Hello?
It should, it should. Hopefully, it should. But, you know, construction input costs can go also up, right? That's. Then that becomes a risk. So we don't want to lock in a land price today, generally, with a lower margin in place, because then you need a sales price increase to cover the land cost.
Plus the input cost, right?
Unless if that does not happen in construction, and input costs don't happen, then it becomes a problem, right? So construction input costs have gone up already.
Right, right.
I'm not talking about what is factored in today.
Right.
But if construction input go up, go up further in the next six months.
Right
T hat will become a further challenge, right? And I don't know how that will play out in the next six months.
Okay, thanks. Thanks for that. Yeah.
Thank you. We have the next question from Rohit Balakrishnan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello, am I audible?
Yes, you are audible, Rohit.
Yeah. Hi, thank you for the opportunity. So I just wanted to understand a couple of things. So, in terms of, so as you, as you alluded to, your the previous answer in terms of your view, of the cycle being, in a positive uptrend. So I wanted to understand two things. In terms of our gross profit per square feet, how do you think that, I mean, gross margin, how do you think they will sort of trend in the next couple of years or, or beyond that? And the second question related to this, to this is that, cost structure below gross margin.
So, if I look at employee cost or selling cost, I mean, I think our costs, prior to even COVID, has hovered around INR 90 crore-INR 100 crore. So if we were to say, increase our volume by 50-80% from our previous peak of 2 million sq ft, how will these costs trend, which are either fixed or semi-variable in nature? So if you can just, talk a bit about that.
Vikashji, you want to give your views? We haven't firmed our views internally. Vikashji can share his views, then I'll share mine as well.
Yeah, I think, see, one thing is very clear, that as the sales go up, obviously the fixed cost will grow, but that certainly won't be in proportion to the growth in sales, for sure. Because as we add up more, more projects and, the locations become deeper in terms of our presence, we add more, manpower, more resources. Obviously, the overheads will grow, but certainly they won't grow in the same proportion as sales. Now, having said that, one thing which, even Varunji mentioned, that in terms of, capability, building in terms of manpower, beyond a point, we might have to, add more manpower if required.
So, that would be one cost which can go up, but apart from that, I don't see any cost significantly going up, you know, as we scale up gradually. So selling cost again, that also will depend, the kind of cities we are present in. For example, in case of Pune, Gurgaon, we have got into model wherein we have engaged channel partners, that will be altogether a different proposition. So these are certain aspects that we are kind of looking at as far as planning our costs in next few years is concerned.
Currently, what is the fixed cost that we have in the system? I mean, in absolute terms?
I mean, other than sales and marketing, which also to a great extent depends on the kind of sales that we clock year on year, overheads would be somewhere in the vicinity of, I would say, I think, INR 65-75 crores, roughly.
I would say, Vikashji, more in the line of INR 65 crore, including finance costs that is there.
Right.
Including finance costs, the appreciation, everything put together will be closer to 65.
65 crore-INR 70 crore, yeah.
Yeah.
That's it.
Yeah, and, Rohit, Rohit, just to add to what Vikashji was saying, let's say let's exclude SG&A for now, selling expenses for now, if you on general administrative. One thing that is happening, as we go, this growth, our expectations will be coming, it will come from going deeper into the markets instead of opening new markets. Therefore-
Right
T he addition to fixed costs would be lower than the proportion. It will not be in proportion to the increase in sales volumes. I think sales volume will increase at a faster rate than increase in fixed cost on a sort of on a percentage of sale value basis. Okay? I think that's one piece of it. The second piece of it, where I would come from, is on the sales and marketing cost. So one thing that happens, Vikashji said as we have moved to channel partners, some of the cost is getting variable as though higher.
But as brand is getting built in certain cities and we go deeper, for every unit of sale, the per unit selling cost should come down, and therefore, again, the sales cost should not increase in the same proportion. I would give an example is Chennai. Chennai, in the beginning, our selling cost was about 8%, 8 percentage points of sale value, and it's come down less than 4. Okay? Is it sustainable at the current levels of close to 2, 2.5 where we are in Chennai? No. But will it start increasing beyond 4? I, I think not.
Similarly, in Gurgaon, in Sohna, absolute selling cost has come down, whereby even though sales volume have increased, and percentage selling costs have come down significantly in Sohna over the last 12-14 months, and the new Gurgaon project, we would expect that to come down. The only place where selling cost, I think, might start creating a little bit of a challenge is Pune, because that will be a completely new market for us. But outside of that, I don't see a challenge also on the sales and marketing cost over the next 3-5 years.
Got it. And if you could answer on the gross profit, I mean, gross margins.
So, okay, so I'll tell you where we are right now. So the historical projects, gross margins are what they are. Some projects we enjoy very good margins, like Ashiana Nirmay on the gross level. Some projects are very tough on the gross margin, like Ashiana Anmol in Sohna. And wherever the older projects are hovering around at a gross profit margin of about 25%-27%, somewhere here or there, on an average basis. Our thumb rules generally has been 30%. Here, what happened, land cost was expensive, sale price came down, construction costs were either same or went up, and we had a margin squeeze at the GP level.
Any project that we have signed up in 2021, so this excludes Ashiana Malhar in Pune, which was also signed up in 2017, first bit. Outside of that, whatever projects we have signed up in 2021, we have done very good on the land price side, and we should enjoy 30% gross margins on an average basis there for sure, if not more. And so that's, that's that. I would expect on a general basis, though, now, gross profit margins for whatever we sell now in the future, GP margins should be better than what they were historically, because sale prices on a overall basis, I think, has improved, increased more than costs, right now. Costs have gone up, but sale prices have gone up more than that, according to me.
Coming back to the point that the rest is the new project that we'll take up, that we are going to sign up right now. We are figuring out how to ensure that we don't have to compromise on margins, given land prices have gone up, there to take up a project. We are looking for pockets, what I call pockets of value, whereby Ashiana is able to make a project work which other developers are not so excited about. That's those are the things we are looking for.
Got it.
Future projects, as we take them up, we'll give a better sense of the commentary on the gross profit margins.
And I think also with the concentration on the higher mix of Senior Living, where also we enjoy substantial, significant pricing power. I think there also, it should be margin-friendly.
I agree on that, Vikash.
Sure. Sure, that's very helpful. The other question that I had was, I mean, I think you joined a bit ago, sorry if this was already answered. I actually got in between your answer, so I just wanted to clarify this thing. That you are saying that in FY 2023 on a reported basis, you do 15% ROE, is that what you said?
I'm hoping that we'll get there. We haven't crunched the numbers fully, Rohit, but the thing is, a lot of the deliveries are getting bunched up in that year, right? So deliveries are good, and I think we should be able to hit 15%.
So, Rohit, in our presentation, we share our scheduled delivery dates. In fact, we share-
Right.
Two sets of dates. One, of course, is RERA, and we keep some kind of headroom for any kind of contingencies. So we give our internal timelines also, which will give a sense as to what exactly is lined up for deliveries in a particular year. So you can get a fair sense out of out of that.
Okay. So basically, right now, our net was around INR 750 crores, so we are looking at around INR 120-INR 150 crores on a reported PAT basis. I mean, I'm just doing broad numbers if you're saying 15%. So I mean-
Uh.
and then work backwards, offline and costs.
Yeah, so, I don't think we'll hit that kind of PAT numbers exactly, Rohit. But my, we are also going to do our workings in there. But I'm, I hope that we'll hit 15% ROE-
Got it.
Next year. So but, we are about two, three-
Sure
months from doing internal
Sure.
-projections then.
No, sure, sure. So, my other question was, sir, I mean, in terms of, I mean, FY 2023, obviously, in a sense, P&L is always backward-looking in our business. So just wanting to understand, I mean, from a, a pre-sales point of view, next year or the year after, how are, how are we looking at it? I mean, our previous peak was two million sq ft. I mean, in the past we have alluded we want to definitely cross that and, and probably reach a very, that number should be a sustainable number and reach a new peak. So, I mean, possible to do three million odd sq ft, let's say, two years out, is that something which is, very, audacious number?
Rohit, it is possible. I think somebody else had asked. I think launching the projects we have signed up in this financial year and before that is going to be key to get there. I think if we do that, I think that number is definitely possible.
Right.
Rohit, the significant launches are planned in FY 2023, so, the key to achieve that kind of number will heavily hinge on timely launches. So, the likes of Ashiana Amara in Gurgaon, the projects in Pune that we are looking forward to launch, so that should actually help us a lot.
Right. Right. No, this is very helpful. Thank you for your detailed answers. I'll join back in with you if I have more questions. Thank you so much. All the very best.
Thank you, Rohit.
Thank you. We have the next question from Himanshu Upadhyay. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes, Himanshu, please go ahead.
Yeah. So my question was, with so much of completions happening in FY 2023, what type of free cash flow do you expect? And, what is the construction spend pending to complete the undergoing projects? Can you just elaborate on that?
Hi, Himanshu, let me show the free cash flow. A lot of the cash flow is already front-loaded for a lot of these projects, right? We have received a lot of cash, and as you've seen, even though we have had reported losses this year, free cash flows have been positive. They were significantly more positive also last year as well. We had great cash flows both those years, and they helped us deploy into more land and growth. So cash flows have been definitely positive. So I think reported earnings will have nothing to do with our cash flows in the way because of our operating cycle being so long.
So I think the cash flows have been very good and steady, that they have been reported on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The remaining construction cost that needs to be incurred, I don't have an exact number on my plate, but I believe we have about 80-odd lakh sq ft left to construct on equivalent basis for the amount of area that's under development, is what I remember.
Yes, around 17 lakh. Around 17 lakh, yes.
Okay. That 17, you know, I would expect about anywhere between INR 300-INR 320 odd crores that we might need to spend on all this. We are averaging at about INR 1,800 a sq ft of construction cost, probably at this point of time, given the mix of type of construction that we have.
Thank you from my side.
Himanshu, just to share one piece of number that we, we put in our presentation as well. If you look at the ongoing projects, whatever booking we have done, we have locked in, there is approximately INR 370-INR 380 crore that we are yet to recover on that front. I'm talking only about the booked units. And similarly on the ongoing projects, whatever balance construction is to be done, that is around INR 310-INR 320 crore. So from a cash flow comfort perspective, you, you can compare the two numbers. We very comfortably cover the construction required to be done through the already locked-in cash flows. I'm not at all including the bookings for the balance part. So that's how the numbers are stacked up as far as cash flows are concerned.
Just to give a sense.
Thank you. That was the last question for the call. I would like now to hand it over to the management for closing comments.
Vikash, would you like to take up closing remarks, please?
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Thank you, everyone.