Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, we invite you for the conference call with Alicon Castalloy Management. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. If you need assistance during the conference, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your telephone phone. Please note that this conference will be recorded. To introduce the management team and take the call ahead, I transfer the line to Mr. Raghunandan of Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you, Yashaswi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining for the conference call with Alicon Castalloy Management. On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, we thank the management for providing us time for the call. We wanted to request the management for some insights on business environment and also the demand conditions and order bookings. We have the opportunity today to host Mr. Vimal Gupta, the Group CFO. A quick background. He has industry experience of over 25 years and has been with Alicon Castalloy for over 15 years. He has experience in areas of global finance, accounting, forecasting, restructuring and acquisitions. Prior to Alicon, he has worked with companies such as Motherson Sumi and Subros. Also we have Mr. Rajiv Gupta, the Head of Domestic Business.
He has over 10 years of experience in business development and marketing within the automotive sector. He handles a range of customers, including the leading OEM and Tier 1 companies in India and global markets. We request the management for some opening remarks, and then we can open the floor for Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
To start with, we will explain little bit about the Alicon Group, and then we will go through the, about the things, and then we will move to the question and answer. Thanks for arranging this call. Let me first start with giving insights about Alicon Group to talk about the capacity, capability and the customer base and our reach, to our customers. Talking about the Alicon Group, we are a global consortium of companies involved in designing, engineering, casting and value-added services for aluminum components. We are having four plants across the globe. We have got three plants in India and one plant we have got in Europe. We have got two plants in Pune and one we have in Delhi. We're doing a business of 50,000 metric ton per year. We have closed last year $150 million.
We are exporting to 26 countries globally. We are one of the largest aluminum foundry having presence in India as well as a presence with a European plant in Slovakia. We also have a joint venture with Enkei Corporation, Japan. Talking about core competence of Enkei Alicon Group is die casting through HPDC process, low-pressure die casting process, and sand casting process. We also offer soft tooling or prototyping solutions to our customers, which we have noticed is a demand at this moment because every OEM or a Tier 1 company are working extensively on the developments. That said, talks about the USP of Alicon. Alicon is giving a full system solution, and this helps us to give them quick solution in a very limited period of time. This is what differentiates us from other competitors.
Talking about customer base, we have total 90+ customers with 700 live parts. Let's talk about major customers in two-wheelers. We have got all experience because they have their own foundry. The recent addition in two-wheeler is Ducati, what we have added in our European plant. Also in four-wheelers, we have got recent addition. We recently added Scania, MAN Truck from India locations supply to Europe. Also, we have got major logos like Daimler, Jaguar, Toyota, Maruti, PSA in our pedigree. In Tier 1 and non-auto, I have got plenty of other customers. Those are Bosch in EV application for motor housing. Then we have got Danfoss, which is controller housing applications to the U.S. market. Then we have got GE in medical. Then we have got Garrett in turbochargers.
We have got Knorr-Bremse, who are the pioneers into railway systems for the German railways. To them also we are supplying parts. We are there with Magneti Marelli, who are again a pioneer. It's when we talk about manufacturing automatic manual transmissions. To them we are supplying lot of parts. Samsung is there to whom we are supplying casting parts which goes to Jaguar and many more. This was just about Alicon Group. Now talking about current market dynamics. Yes, we are noticing. From 2018-19, we have noted the market has witnessed worst decrease, particularly a downfall with several of the reasons like, there was a demonetization, then there was a NBFC turmoil, then there was the COVID one, two, and three. With that, we are noticing the market, particularly talking about automotive, its market is shrinking.
That we have realized that's the reason from 18, 19 you will see we have added a lot of new customers, existing customers, so increase of penetration with the existing account. We have successfully increased our share of business with existing customers. We have also added a lot of new customers, adding new regions and new logos to add more opportunities from these areas where we were not there. That's the reason you will notice that the market is noticing a traction growth. Alicon is able to outperform over the market, and that is the reason you see from 18, 19 to 21, 22, you notice our existing market noticed a downfall of around 9%, and Alicon was able to sustain this particular period.
Going forward also, if you talk about Indian automotive market, they would be growing not more than 35%. Alicon is talking about a growth of around 16%-17% in 2025-2026 from then on. This was just about Alicon growth and the current market dynamics. Further, we would like to take individual questions, and thereafter, if any point, clarity will be discussed then.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star one on their push-button telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of Amar Maurya from AlphaCredit Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Sir, I have couple of questions. To start with, like, you know, this deal which we had announced with Jaguar for eAxle, I mean, obviously you have not mentioned the content, but connected to the historical deals, like they were in the range of. Hello, am I audible to you?
Secondly, it is out.
Hello, hello. Is it clear now?
Yes, yes.
Okay. I'm saying, sir, you know, you had not announced the deal size, but I'm saying, you know, connected to the last deals, like, you know, they were in the range of INR 70 crore-INR 80 crore. When you say that this deal is much, much higher than that. I mean, is it ranging somewhere around, let's say, I mean, what would be the range if you cannot give the actual numbers?
Range, yeah. It comes in the range of INR 1,000 crore-INR 1,200 crore.
Okay. When it is likely to be ramped up, sir? You know, is it going to see the ramp-up in this year itself or in the next year?
No, no, because the e-mobility platform and the EV itself, so at this point it's in design stage. Its commercialization will start from 2024. The ramp up we will see from 2025, then next five years. It will start from 2024, 2025.
Okay. Basically in next year, is it like second half, we will see some revenue from this deal or is it like the end of the quarter, fourth quarter or so?
Next year mostly it is sample submission and validation of that part. This will be a little portion in 2024-2025, and around 50% will come by 2025-2026.
Okay. What kind of margin profile, sir, you will have in this deal?
Some of that is, I think, will be kind of disclosed. Definitely now whatever the new businesses we have acquired, because if you I don't know how to go, but if you are attending our previous call, we are talking about the margin. Big shift is happening in Alicon. Business from the two-wheeler to the four-wheeler and other businesses. Two-wheeler is generally a low margin business. Whatever the new businesses we are acquiring, that is mainly focused on margin expansion, mainly the technology and what are the challenges like the main tech, the technology disruption is happening. On how to benefit definitely on better margin. We are able to have a good margin on this.
Okay. Sir, your voice is a little bit not clear. I mean, I think if you can come closer. I mean, not clear, very clear. I cannot hear you very clearly. I have few more, can I ask or should I come into the queue?
Do you want me to repeat?
Yeah. I think margin part, sir, it was not very clear. Your voice was cracking a bit.
Margin part. Like, sir, we should understand the structure, what structural changes are happening in Alicon Group. There is a complete shift is happening. One is technology disruption, another is the business model change. Mainly, Alicon used to be more defined into the two-wheeler side. Mainly when we used to have business of 40%-45% contribution from the two-wheeler. Now, going forward, those businesses are going to reduce in the future period. There will be increase in the customer businesses, especially on the PV side of the passenger vehicle. The business contribution due to this technology disruption, the major business is coming from the EV at this moment. Like when we talk about this two-wheeler business, so always, you know, there's always pressure on the margin from the OEMs also.
Now when we are shifting the business because the two-wheeler or major product was in the cast side, casting only casting on the machining. Now we are moving to fully machined parts and mainly contributing this from the commercial or from the passenger vehicle. Definitely, the margins are on the higher side.
If I can, sir, ask you more, one is like how your mix of two-wheeler versus PV and CV would look like, let's say in next 2-3 years. Secondly, what would be the current contribution of machining and what would be the contribution of machining, let's say, go down the line 2 years?
Hello. Definitely. First I answer you about this machining. Two-wheeler.
Two-wheeler without that.
Two-wheeler business is almost a casting business without machining.
Okay.
Whatever the increase in the business now, completely machined parts.
Okay. Meaning what you're saying is that other than two-wheeler, whatever three-wheeler, PV and CV you are having is basically a machining business, right? Along with the casting.
All are machine, sir.
Okay. How does machine-
Sorry.
Yeah, yeah. You were saying something, sir.
I'll tell you why. Because if you talk about two-wheeler, it's a high risk volume. There are a lot of competitors, and ideally also it's a combination of the solution. That's the reason OEMs give this opportunity to a lot of suppliers like us. They ask us to make through this process, because this particular process mostly is not with all other OEM. That's the reason they buy the cast parts. The machining is an area where definitely the assembly OEMs can put in-house. That's the reason they ask us as cast suppliers, and they do machining in-house, and thereafter they use those components. We basically have very less margin because it's a commodity. Not much of a science, not much of a technology is there.
Because of both of the components, customer looks for a ready-to-use component than the assembly. That's the reason they say to make the part, do machining, add value-added services, and give me a ready-to-use component. There is where I have an option to get extra VA. That's the reason we are noticing going forward what we have planned is reduce the dependency in two-wheeler and create this capacities for the passenger production vehicle. The overall margins which need to improve for this.
Okay.
Talking about numbers, currently my two-wheeler is somewhere around 45%-50%, which I'm planning to reduce this to 20%-25% in 2025, 2026. My passenger vehicle is somewhere around 25%-28%, which I'm aiming to increase this to around 33-35%. We are 35%. Commercial, currently around 15%-18%, which we are aiming to increase it to 19%-22%. This is the shift what we are talking about.
Okay.
This is kicking also. If you see our new order booking trend from 18, 19, that pops in line with the strategy we have defined at that time.
Okay. Okay.
Because our customers are clearly telling, "If you have got a simple part, don't come to me. If you have got a complex part, come to me, I'll give you a solution.
Okay. Sir, like these kind of orders which you had won recently, there would be such more orders would be in your pipeline?
Mr. Kamal, this is what we see that, now this technology change is happening. The world is moving towards the EV. This is the first mobility, I mean, e-mobility, and this I can say that we were first. At this moment, we cannot disclose the name, but maybe Raju would like to add. Right. I'll tell you, one thing is, yes, we know very well EV. We anticipated way early EV is coming now. In Europe it was early because the transition was in way early. Alicon, as have got a plant in Europe, have got the added advantage.
Today, I'm very proud and happy to share with you our electric scooter, our motorbike, our passenger vehicle, our commercial. Alicon have already developed parts for all these range of EV solution. Now coming to the OEMs in India. Now even, all OEMs want to have a quick development to catch the race, because almost all OEMs are working extensively on this particular platform. There they want to go ahead with the supplier who have got knowledge, who have spent time in this know-how, which definitely they know very well, which will help them to get first-time right component. That is the reason now OEMs are approaching. Almost all OEMs are approaching on these parts to us.
Now, talking about the e-axle, this is one of the critical and complex parts when we talk about e-mobility. This also wins from Jaguar what we have announced sets an example to the existing and upcoming customers about the capability and capacity of developing these parts. We are quite sure on development of this part. Definitely a lot of other suppliers will directly approach us on development.
Okay. Sir, you have indicated that your 2026 goal was 36% target of, you know, percentage of revenue of EV. Now, after this order win, I mean, is that percentage going to increase?
now, we have reached with this order book, around 28%.
No, because you guided for 36% target for-
36% is the target. Because what we are talking about, this is what we already have in hand.
Correct.
We have got the order. Some are under negotiations, and definitely we will develop maybe, I don't know, in the next con call or maybe after another con call, we will again revise our goal.
Specifically to the 36% what we have mentioned won't change what I will be generating, let's say, INR 25 billion for EV, right?
Correct. Till now, with the current order book change, we have touched somewhere around 27%-28%, which going forward, because still we have got two years on the line to set the setup to get on this. We are quite confident of achieving the target what we have defined. Maybe in the coming quarters, the way things are moving, the way customers are approaching, it might be we can increase this target going forward. We are keeping our close watch because our developments are being happening across all with all the OEMs.
No, my question was actually very different, sir, because the 36% revenue target guidance for EV was before this deal signed, right? Now you already won this deal, and this deal is primarily into EV. So I'm saying naturally the 36% number has to go up, and along with that, your margin goal of 16% and the revenue target of INR 25 billion also will upgrade, right? That is what I want to understand.
I got your point. The point is we need to understand this particular order. The peak sale will come somewhere around 2026 or 2027. That's the reason that portion is not able to take the benefit of the target what we have defined for 25. Yes, little bit is a benefit from this order win, immediately, I do understand. Going forward, the peak sale of this order will come somewhere in for the year 2026 or 2027.
Okay.
Yes, but the future parts are going to support that. Maybe outcome of this, which I get in the coming year, definitely it will help me to revise my target.
Okay. Thanks. I come back into this.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press Star and One on your phone. We have the next question from the line of Praveen Motwani from India Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, this is Praveen from Bank of India Mutual Fund. Sir, I have one question on your recent order win of e-axle. If you can just elaborate a little bit on this piece, like what exactly we are going to do in this product, and what is the usual content in vehicle for this?
Okay. This, it's a part. It's a e-axle. It's one of the critical parts in e-mobility. It's a combination of a motor housing and inverter housing. So.
We are redeveloping this end-to-end product or we are just providing this casting and machining on a specific product?
Yes. We have received a supply of casting and finish machining for this particular part. Ideally, if you talk about e-mobility, I'll tell you. If you talk about e-mobility, there are basically three parts in a vehicle. One is a motor housing, other is an inverter housing, and third is a battery housing. E-axle, they are trying to make this component, which is a combination of these packages under a different platform. This combined term, if you talk about a motor housing, that is ranging around 5-5 kg. If I talk about a controller housing, again 6-7 kg. A battery housing for a normal car would be around 10 kg. This particular component is weighing 21 kg.
You can understand it's a combination. There is what we have grabbed the order. e-axle, this is a portfolio where lot of OEMs are now working extensively, to come up a unique solution.
Basically you will be more into this semi casting and the machining front. Is my understanding correct?
Agreed.
Okay. Awesome.
Mainly, yes. Three major components are there. One is when we talk about the battery, motor and the transmission.
Right.
One is the battery housing we are doing for the battery, and for the motor and the transmission, this is the integral. Almost the critical parts to run an electric vehicle, we have got all small parts.
Okay. Understood.
Only this is where we were not there and which also we have tagged. Now we offer our customer as a complete solution for all the type of parts in the e-mobility. Another question you were asking about, this, content for vehicle.
Correct.
The content for vehicle, just a minute. Talking of the content for vehicle, if you see in IC vehicle which you're talking about, for the passenger vehicle, I have the opportunity somewhere around 12-15 kg, which is the opportunity for me around 32. Same if you're talking about, similarly in commercial vehicle, in IC we have got a possibility of 8-10 kg, which is around 70-80 kg in a commercial vehicle. A two-wheeler. In IC we had a opportunity around 55 kg, which we are noticing around 8-9 kg.
This we have reduced now because we understood when Ather they have launched, they came up of a premium technology type, where they have planned to move, build most of the parts through aluminum to give a unique product. Now if you talk about a two-wheeler, it's more of a competition market. That's the reason the OEMs are coming up with more of a aggregation concept. That's the reason what we have understood now in the opportunity. That's the reason if you see our script, right, previous slide. That's the reason we are trying to penetrate more in the passenger and commercial also when we're talking about the key mobility also.
Understood. Okay. Thanks. Thanks for those were the two questions. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We have our next question from the line of Aman Agarwal. I'm sorry, his line is disconnected. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone now. We have our next question from the line of Devesh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible, sir?
Yes, sir, you're audible.
Sir, first of all, compliments for winning best order of our company. Sir, my question is regarding our Jaguar new order. I want to know, sir, why and how we won this order. Number one, is it because Europe is in difficult period, we got the order or because of our cost efficiency? What are the prime reason for winning this order? Second, who is our competitor for this order? Who are the other competitors?
Okay, thanks for that question. Basically we are engaged with Jaguar for the last four years now. If you remember, we have mentioned in this call in previous also, that we have already developed a battery housing for Jaguar from a European facility, somewhat technology. We have given them a VAVE solution which they have appreciated, and they have recognized us as a technology partner. For which this was one of the aspect, which from the European facility. Thereafter, if you remember, we have already announced, two years ago, we've got one more order. That supply was from the Indian location, which for last year we are supplying. Consistency as the technology, support what we have given to them, have given them a confidence to give this unique critical part development for the eAxle.
That's the reason we got the special privilege to get this call for that issue. We were talking about how we got this business. Basically, the development, the past developments, what we have given them have built the confidence. We started with in the year 2018, 2019, the development of the battery housing. From a European plant, which they have appreciated. We have given a value addition of cost benefit, weight reduction, and a unique solution to develop that part, which they have recognized us as a technology partner for these parts. Going forward, in the year 2021, they further gave us opportunity for a structural part from the Indian location. Successful development of that part and supplies for almost a year have further added their confidence.
That's the reason for us to grab this order was quite easy when we gave this technology offer. Talking about competition, yes, there were competition for this particular project. There were competitions from other countries. We also have a competition from India. Sorry, I won't be able to disclose their name. Yes, there were competition from three, four basically countries to grabbing this order. As even customer, these are critical parts customer want to go ahead with, who have got the knowhow about this technology, critical part development. That's the reason they are comfortably going ahead with Alicon.
Thank you, sir. As I understood rightly, I think, our technical skill, engineering skill has an edge over other competition. This is the main reason why we got the order. My understanding is right, sir?
Right. Thank you to make it very simple. Right. This is the point.
Yeah.
through which we are able to grab this order.
sir, my second question is regarding the defense opportunity. Nowadays, we hear a lot about Make in India, Atmanirbhar. I just-
Right. On defense, particular non-auto front also, Alicon is focusing much because the way the markets are behaving, talking about domestic market, where there is a pressure of EV. There's a confusion built up on the consumers which vehicle to buy and so on. We are noticing disruption in the global market, like the way Ukraine happened. The disruption in the supply chain. That's the reason we want to increase our wallet when we talk about the contribution of the non-auto. There also we are doing quite well. If you have noticed, maybe in the previous call we mentioned about a project what we have developed for the military in India. This particular part also was a critical and complex part.
The weight of this part also is in the range of 20 kg, and the supply condition is a machined one. This again is a very critical and complex part, which we have offered to our customer. These parts will now give confidence to our customer in terms of sustainability of the RCG, what they can offer to them. This will further help them to localize going forward a lot of other parts also going forward.
Sir, one last question regarding our partner, Enkei Corporation, Japan. Can you some elaborate little bit about what are their contribution to our company to take from INR 1,000 crore to say INR 2,000 crore and then to INR 3,000 crore? What is the vision of Enkei about Alicon's level?
Talking about Enkei, see the process of both the companies are same. They're making components in a low-pressure die casting and gravity components, a range of alloy wheels. We are making components and parts of the alloy wheels. The process are the same. They're working. We are together working on continuous upgrading our processes, our know-how, continuous kaizen. We share our know-how. It's like our team members frequently travel their plant, domestic as well as global plants across the globe to share the know-how. Even we offer our solutions to them. This continuous sharing about knowledge is helping both the organizations in terms of innovation, in terms of coming up with new technology.
Every quarter, the president of Enkei Corporation, Junichi Suzuki, is visiting our plant and doing a detailed audit where he shares his views and his areas of improvement. Unfortunately, because of COVID for the last two and a half years, this audit was not done. We have still shifted to a virtual platform. We have got that other team members who are visiting us on a frequent basis, and we are able to share our knowhow together to upgrade both the group for the customer. Just if you see the Toyota business, what we have got, this is the first time in the history of Toyota of 80 years, they have decided to outsource cylinder head and they decided to go with Alicon.
That was also with the support of Enkei Corporation because they were familiar with Enkei Group since long because they've sourced alloy wheels from them since very long. As a technology partner, they have that confidence of going ahead with that Alicon. The development of A-class, Enkei, we call it as A-class component. It's a very critical and complex part. With this, they were able to. I mean, they had a confidence to decide to go ahead with Alicon for development of this part. Definitely on other side, like, one is that on the technology side, second is like, to get the new orders, as explained by Rajiv about the Toyota. Same way they are supporting us for the like, we are thinking about the technology change.
Whatever the new customers across India also, Japanese OEM, they are basically a change in technology. They are supporting either the technology side as well as, to negotiate or to, get the new orders from the existing, this OEM, this Japanese OEM.
Sir, with Suzuki and Toyota, Japanese showing their interest to invest heavily in India for a battery, is this a good opportunity for a company like us?
Definitely, sir. Just before this I've explained like the new business plan case of working and definitely when I'm talking about the Japanese OEM. You understand that, so we cannot disclose all this project, but,
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay. Suzuki is a big opportunity.
Suzuki and Toyota, lot of support on the business side for the new orders as well as for the technology.
Okay. We got it, sir. Thanks and all the best, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We now have a question from the line of Chetan Dodia from AlphaCredit Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Few questions. Firstly, what would be the period of the order? Is it INR 1,700 crore order over 10 years period or something different?
Mainly, the total period is 10 years, but the major chunk will go in 5 years. Because after that 5 years, so very small quantities we have to get from that order.
Okay. Secondly, sir, with respect to now, new orders, are you seeing increased inquiry from European OEMs, given that we are already suppliers to them in some or the other way? Has there been any increase in inquiries from their side in the last six months?
Yes. The number of RFQs have increased, and especially when we talk about the e-mobility parts, we have given lot of solutions with those inquiries, which we are in discussion with them going forward. There is an increase in the number of inquiries and the type of inquiries both have increased.
Okay. Would it be possible for you to explain a little bit about, you know, what is the cost differential between company manufacturing here and, you know, the cost differential manufacturing there and how has this changed because of power dynamics?
Basically, yes, apart from manufacturing, ideally for these cars, customers are looking for solutions, and they want to go with a partner who have spent near about 3, 4 years of their research and time on developing this part. Like, for example, the battery housing, when we received from Jaguar in the year 2018-2019, that was weighing 36 kg. We have developed that part with around 28 kg. So roughly around 8 kg, we gave them a weight reduction. So this is what if the OEMs are looking for at this moment. That's the reason they don't want to try any new supplier, any new entrant, but they want to try with suppliers who have that extensive experience and also record of development this part over more than 3-4 years until now.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Aman Agarwal from Carnelian Capital . Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. I actually had a few questions. The first was, how much cylinder head
Currently our cylinder head portfolio would be around 30%-35%.
Okay. In the orders that you have.
In that.
Yeah. Sorry.
Yeah. Sorry. Currently my cylinder portfolio would be around 30%-45%. Out of that, around 10%, 8%-10% would be the four-wheeler. Now we are trying to increase the portfolio of the four-wheeler cylinder head. We are trying to increase the 8% to roughly around 15-18, 15-16% in next 3-4 years, which will give me a higher margins and higher valuation.
The balance 50% currently would be from two-wheeler, right? Or we have some mix from TV also.
No. Yeah, definitely going ahead with the acceptance of EV, we also anticipate consumers would like to shift to this new technology. That's the reason we also anticipate the volumes of two-wheelers will come down.
Okay. Understood, sir. Like from this order book, like we indicated, in last call that our annual order book currently is somewhere around INR 620 crore per annum. Like, in that order book, sir, how much would be cylinder head flows?
In that order book, we have added customers like Renault for the Brazil location. We have added Toyota in that category, three cylinder heads, and also we have added PSA. I think roughly this would be around 20%-25%. Because PSA is talking for a huge volume. They're talking about roughly around 3 lakh volume per year for the domestic as well as export business. Also, Toyota, they're also talking about a good volume for India and also few projects for the global market. We are anticipating good numbers from these two projects.
Understood, sir. In this order book itself, like, we have indicated that around 25%-30% is EV in this order book. Like, in EV, if it's basically hybrid or, pure EV, what would be the mix of these products?
This would be around 90% would be pure EV.
Okay. Yeah. Understood, sir. Sir, on this Tata JLR order, which we have basically indicated to the exchanges, so like, if I go through JLR, so basically we'll be introducing this Range Rover model from 2024. Most of these Jaguar models will come from 2025 and 2026. We will be supplying to Range Rover also. Majority of our products will go in the Jaguar models, which comes in-
We are not sure of the model, but what we know is a new development what we are working currently.
Okay.
It's not for the current research project, but this is new development.
Understood, sir. Sir, on this overall lightweighting theme, which the aluminum content is increasing in the EV going forward, given we are currently with so many global players, like we have gotten orders from a lot of players, even globally as well as in India on the EV side. How do we see this opportunity for us in future? Like any aspiration of basically growing the top 10 or like reaching some top 10 number in terms of Alicon for the next 4-5 years?
We are noticing a good opportunity going ahead with EV, because not just development of parts, but also lot of other avenues have opened up when we talk about an EV. Like lot of structural parts which currently is into steel or a cast iron. For the lightweighting, definitely customer is looking to develop this part in the aluminum. Like for example, a cradle what we developed for Jaguar two years ago was previously being made as with a cast iron component. But we gave them a solution, a unique solution in aluminum, which has given us a new platform for us to enter. That's the reason from there, if you notice last two years, we have added a new segment called technology agnostic parts, which we are also VA.
We call it as a technology agnostic, which means be it EV, be it a hybrid or be it EV, this part will remain common, and this will help me to grab a particular share in the existing market. Yes, with the combination of EV and technology agnostic parts, we are going to increase our sales going forward.
Understood, sir. Just one more question, sir. We have gotten this PLI incentive approval. Like, which of our products will basically qualify? What kind of CapEx we are looking to for this PLI, going forward, sir?
Sorry, voice is not clear.
Sir, we have.
Can you repeat?
Yeah, sorry, sir. We have gotten approval for production-linked incentive schemes, PLI scheme by government. Like which of our products will qualify under that, and like what is the kind of CapEx we are planning, sir, for the PLI scheme going forward, sir?
For the PLI, that we need to recheck, but I think it is in the range of INR 30-50 crore minimum that is going to happen.
Okay. Sir, overall CapEx plan for us, for the next
For the year, we'll be in this year around INR 80-90 crores.
Okay. Sir, what would be the optimum asset turnover, like under APIC [uncertain] to do?
It's different because it moves where we are having the big investment for the machining. Generally it is on the lower side. For the other, we are already having the facilities there for the casting and other processes. Our expectation for the new orders is between 2-4. Because some orders we are having 3, some we are having 4, like when we are talking about the JLR. It will be in the range of 2-4.
Okay. Understood, sir. Sir, one final question on the margin. Like, we have been indicating that necessarily we are moving towards a 40%-50% lower. Like, currently, our EV volumes would be lower, right? Because of the part we are developing. Once the volumes basically ramp up, do we see this margin is going down because the competition starts increasing and even these OEMs basically go for multiple sources, in terms of sourcing this product? Like, sir, any directions beyond that?
Generally, it doesn't happen because all these local OEM, they go for the long-term agreement. They don't play like this, "Okay, we cut down the prices." Like, let's take example of this, Jaguar Land Rover. They have also spent around 1.5-2 years because to develop this product, and it will be a huge amount they have to invest for the development. They don't go for the, competitors or renegotiate because, you see that they have negotiated all this price based on the current situation. Definitely, it is in the coming years, we have to face, like, inflation impact on there. That also we keep in the mind.
Maybe when this after five years or 10 years down the line, this technology becomes a general technology or like, this part becomes a commodity, then we can see the, some condition in the pricing.
Right, sir. Understood. That was really helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Amar Maurya from AlphaCredit Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, just on like, you know, if I see your financial guidance, basically you are talking about 23% for revenue CAGR and around about 37%-38% kind of EBITDA CAGR, you know. What I'm trying to understand here is that, is that kind of trajectory would be seen from the starting of the years. I mean, the margin improvement which we are talking about, let's say currently we are at 11% odd. Is that from here on every quarter kind of we will see the margin improvement or this all will happen, let's say in the, you know, probably after two years of the turning?
Amar, this margin improvement will definitely because now we can play in the next year starting 2024. We can see a good improvement. Currently we are like in the last phone call I explained that maybe we are targeting between 10% and 12.5% for the full year. Slowly improvement will be there. Another impact that, major impact, some inflation. It has started easing out. That benefit we will get currently and maybe some price corrections from the customers in the past pass-through of this impact of the inflation.
You are saying, let's say if you end the year with 12.5%, next year you will see inch up on margin even on the 12.5%, right? 2024 because your business is starting to change.
Yes. We hope that it will improve further.
Okay. In terms of the revenue growth, sir, like, you know, as you said that, you know, in majority of the growth, basically the commodity price is also linked. But barring the commodity prices, do you see that kind of volume growth for us to do this kind of double-digit revenue growth in this phase of time?
Yes. Commodity growth is up. That is normal because the kind of portfolio we have got, it's a ramp up we have to do. Even whatever we are talking about, we are not banking on the existing portfolio. Whatever the businesses we are having from the past.
Mm-hmm.
This growth is coming. The business is pretty easy. We see like in the last couple of calls, we explained that we have revised on the upward side for the current year. We were talking about 18-20%. Now we are talking about around 25-28% growth this year.
Correct. Sir, if you can help us, like, you know, this order book of INR 3,000 crore odd, which we are having INR 2,100 crore, how this order book will be executed in this five-year phase? Is this equal-
First of all, I think I should explain properly this understanding of INR 3,000 crore. What Rajeev is explaining, this INR 3,000 crore and now the INR 3,300 crore, that is till 2026. Actual order book size is around INR 7,000 crore.
Okay.
Of the new businesses. New order. When we down the line going forward, when we talk about around 7 years, when these projects will be executed. INR 7,000 crore is the estimation I'm giving. Then from the existing business also approximately around next year around INR 7,000 crores. Total order execution in the next 7 years will be in the range of around INR 14,000 crores.
Okay. Sir, I didn't understand. Like, you know, what you're saying, currently when you're saying, your current order book is INR 3,000 crore, but you are saying that this order book is INR 7,000 crore. I mean
INR 3,000 crore is an order book from the new businesses we have got.
Correct.
Up to March 25, around 3.5 years only.
Correct.
When we see the size of this order, the total size.
Mm-hmm.
The execution period of the complete order is around seven years.
Okay.
When we take those next seven years, so the order size of these new orders is around INR 7,000 crore.
Okay.
Right? This is coming from the new orders I'm talking about.
Okay.
This is my existing business where we are doing.
Okay.
That is also for next 7 years, I'm taking the ballpark figures, approximately same figure of around INR 3,500-INR 7,000 crore. Total order execution in next 7 years is around INR 13,000-INR 14,000 crore.
Okay. Basically you are talking about a INR 3,000 crore kind of a run rate for the company.
Average run rate we're talking about. At this moment, this is whatever the orders in hand we are talking. Within the seven years, there will be the further continuation of the new businesses.
Okay.
That will further increase our run rate.
Okay. This INR 3,300 crore is execution over three and a half years.
From the new business, new orders we have got.
Yeah. Basically I got it. Basically, let's say, and this ramp up of, let's say, INR 900 crore, will happen from FY 2023, 2024 itself, or is it like equally divided or it is like bunched up in one particular year and then it will lean out, something like that? I wanted to understand.
This INR 900 crore basically what we are talking, this is from the new businesses what we have added from 2018-19 till date. This will come somewhere around from the year 2025-26.
From 25-26. Okay.
I mean, first of all, 2025, 2026 will be in the range of INR 900. You can map for previous year, you can factor around 80%. 2025, 2026, it will further increase.
Okay. Basically key is INR 900 crore, which will be touched at 2025, 2026. I think what you're saying, 80% of that could be executable in these three years period, right? Out of that INR 900 crore ramp up.
Yeah.
Correct?
INR 900 crore will be for 2025, 2026, and thereafter there will be a ramp up.
I got it. What will be the order executed in 2023, 2024, 2026? That is what I'm asking.
Okay. Roughly around it would be INR 700 crore-INR 720 crore in 2023-2024. Somewhere around it would be INR 800-INR 820 crore in 2024-2025.
2023-2024, something around INR 500 crore. INR 800 crore in 2024-2025.
2024, 2025. Right.
Okay. 2024, 2025. Basically from next year, the new order ramp up will start, this is what you're saying, correct?
Correct.
Okay. This new order would be again a premium margin business because this order would be largely your four-wheeler or CV order?
Right. With the value addition. Right.
With the value addition. Okay. Sir, from existing product line, existing business line, is there an opportunity for you to increase your margin? Or where basically, this transition from three-wheelers to four-wheeler will happen and you'll keep on reducing that business. That is the only way you are going to increase your margin?
On that front also we are continuously working, like the other ways, how we can increase this productivity or we can reduce the cycle time for those components so that we can get a benefit. A few we need to pass on to our customer with the yearly substantial year-on-year reduction also, in some cases customers are expecting. Some we pass on to our customers also. We are working extensively on the other avenues, how we can reduce the cost of operations of those castings.
Okay. Got that, sir. Thank you.
Okay. Bye.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Raghunandhan N. L. from Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. More or less all my questions are answered. Just one final question I had. How do you see the share of overseas business trending over the next few years?
Currently I am at around 24%-25% when we talk about global. We are noticing an increase in this particular portfolio also. Our new project, what we have got most are from the global numbers also. We are anticipating this would go somewhere around 36%-38% in next 4-5 years. Rajat, at present, based on the order book only, 36%-38% global and make our target is to
Got it, sir. My understanding would be correct that this would be more value accretive and margin accretive orders?
Definitely our focus is mainly on that.
That's wonderful, sir. Sir, with this, you know, we come to the end of the time and end of the session. I would request you to make some closing remarks for the investors who are on the call.
Ankith, thank you very much for attending the call and thanks to Emkay Global for arranging this platform for the discussion. Definitely just, you know, showing the interest and the confidence in the Alicon. Only one thing I will say that now we are seeing a lot of because we are talking with the many customers on the EV side about things are happening, how Alicon is performing. Just two or three things I will say that now Alicon is mainly like when we talk about the EV, so we have developed almost all the parts those are required in the aluminum and Alicon is the first preferred partner by almost all OEMs. When they are talking about the EV development, first they are approaching to Alicon.
Hopefully we will be able to what we are promising, we will be able to deliver. Thank you very much for that. Attending the call.
Thank you. On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.