Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to APL Apollo Tubes Limited Q4 FY24 earnings conference call, hosted by Elara Securities Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ravi Sodha from Elara Securities Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah, good afternoon. Welcome to the Q4 and FY24 conference call for APL Apollo Tubes. From management, we have Mr. Sanjay Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Deepak Goyal, Director of Operations and Group CFO, and Mr. Anubhav Gupta, Chief Strategy Officer. To start off, I will hand over the call to the management for opening remarks, pose that we can have a detailed Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thanks, Ravi, and thanks to Elara Securities for hosting Apollo Tubes for its Q4 FY24 earnings call. I welcome all the participants on this call. So FY24, as it went by, has been full of rollercoaster rides. When we had started in April last year, we had come out of a very tough FY23, which got highly disrupted because of the global commodity meltdown, which impacted all the industries. So FY24, we thought that it will bring a lot of optimism to the business model after one year of disruption, and we thought that we would be able to do 3 million tons of sales volume for the full year. That's what we guided to our investors as well.
But after 12 months, what we did is 2.62 million tons, which is almost like a 13% shortfall of our own guidance, or you can say around 350,000 tons of volume shortfall. So first, I'd like to highlight what got missed, okay, why this shortfall in the targets, and how we plan to overcome that. So FY24, it started with India having its own problems like high interest rates, high inflation. The steel sector, the steel upstream sector, getting transformed after almost three, four years, that the new capacity started to come online after new entrants like NMDC Steel and long steel producers, Jindal Steel and Power, they started plant steel production. So a lot of factors did impact the momentum for the full year.
So if I have to recall that 350,000 tons of volume loss, we would say that 100,000 tons got lost because of overall slowdown in the construction activity, particularly in the retail sectors. 100,000 tons volume got lost because of our late ramp-up of Raipur and Dubai plants, which we had thought that they will be operational within the immediate, but ultimately, both plants started production towards the end of the year. And also because of this new steel, which was coming online in terms of upstream capacity, those two months in October and November, which impacted our Q3 FY24 pretty badly, and our volumes declined to almost 604,000 tons versus a normalized range of 676,000 to 80,000 tons. So these were the factors which actually impacted our FY24.
But if we look at the overall performance with 15% volume growth, 15% EBITDA growth, and 15% PAT growth, we believe that we have moved our way from a very nonfavorable situation, and now we are sitting on a highly, highly solid platform, which will drive our earnings for the next 2-3 years. Other than that, what we have achieved is a 2.4 MT capacity extension program, which has taken our capacity to almost 4 million tons, right as of March 2024. And with just a price peak effect of residual INR 600 crore, our capacity will be 5 million tons up and ready. We have closed our net cash balance sheet for the first time, right, with a small cash of around INR 200 million.
But it is highly appreciable that after doing the effect of INR 2,400 crore in the last four years, and our FY 2020 balance sheet was with INR 800 crore of net debt. FY 2024, we are almost closing with we are almost closing with net cash balance sheet. With the low CapEx intensity now, one can imagine the kind of cash flows, the free cash flows, which our company is going to generate. Our OCF to EBITDA, operating cash to EBITDA, has been upwards of 90% throughout. And you can see the net working capital days, which was just one as of March 2024. And again, when we had moved to cash and credit business model in FY 2021, there were always apprehensions that whether this is sustainable.
But now we are glad that 3-4 years of persistent working capital efficiencies, we have been able to achieve, right, and which is best in the construction material sector. And the ROCE, which you see optically at around 30% for the whole company, but this is after the fact that we have invested almost INR 1,400-INR 1,500 crore in Raipur plant and INR 150-INR 200 crore in Dubai plant. So these two investments will fire in the next 2 years, and then ROCE will go beyond 35%-38%, which is our target.
Other than that, other than that, the construction boom cycle on which India right now is sitting, whether it is in terms of the record retail order book with the real estate developers, or it is with the recovery in the retail construction demand, which will come post-elections and post-reversal of interest rates and inflation, and then the infrastructure spending, which is going to take place in terms of any kind of infra which government or private sector are willing to build. You can see one slide in our presentation, slide number 28, where we have shown the detail, shown where we have given the demonstration of what the commercial and infrastructure projects can provide the opportunity for structural tubes, that our share will be four times higher of what a cement as a construction material gets used, or 10 times bigger than any other construction material product.
So with the product range starting from 8 by 8 millimeter to in diameter up to 1,000 millimeter by 1,000 millimeter diameter, this allows Apollo Tubes to service the construction industry for any kind of structure, any kind of construction, whether it's a small shanty being developed in slums of Bombay, or it's a five-star hotel, or a $10 million condominium being built in Gurgaon. So everywhere and anywhere our portfolio is there to service the construction sector, the architects, EPC contractors, the developers. As far as Q4 is concerned, there was some adjustment in the markets, industry markets. After the new capacity came in, steel prices were correcting.
So which is good that finally, India market is seeing steel deflation, which is very good for us because ultimately, we compete against inefficient construction products like secondary steel, like rebars, like steel angles and channels, like aluminum profiles, wooden structures, HR plates, prefab structures. With our base raw material in the deflation mode, it opens a big market for Apollo products. And with the product SKU basket, with the distribution network, with our business development teams working 24/7, this is going to this is going to help boost our volumes significantly in the next 2, 3 years. But yes, because of steel prices coming down, it has marginal impact on channel destocking. So we have to push our products aggressively to our clients for which we have to offer some discounts.
So that's why there was like INR 200-INR 250 erosion in the EBITDA per ton versus last quarter. But again, we are not too much worried about it. As steel is making updates with almost 10%-15% lower prices than what it was at the start of the year, it gives a very solid base for Apollo to push its products now. The existing months, if we may, have been going pretty okay, given we were afraid that election could give some disruptive environment. But if we may, have been pretty good. And the momentum for FY25 looks pretty solid.
After elections are over, we expect all the private builders' order book, which is related to the pre-sales or infra projects where we are already working, you will see a lot of projects what we have given in our presentation, how our designs, our products are getting approved, right? So yes, I mean, we will be back on a 20%-25% growth trajectory in terms of volume, EBITDA, and CAGR for the next 2-3 years. We are super confident about it. Lastly, I would like to highlight our ESG performance because this is one of the very important barometer for our management today. We did participate in DJSI Dow Jones Sustainability Index for last year, and our percentile increased to 86 versus 80. And where on the overall environment, social governance score, our score was 42 last year versus 29 in the previous year.
And just to sit on the board, we got two new directors, Mr. Rajeev Jain and Mr. Dinesh Mittal, who come from the varied industry experience. Mr. Rajeev has been the chairman and managing director of Goodyear, the leading tire manufacturer. And Mr. Dinesh Mittal comes with an administrative background, which will help us improve our compliances. So that's it from our side. I mean, what we believe is that FY23, FY24 were among the worst years what we have seen in the recent past. But Apollo continues to do its work in terms of working capital management, generating cash flows, finishing its capex, innovating, building the market for new products. And we just need the tailwind from the macro, and we'll see Apollo getting back on 25% volume earnings schedule. Thank you so much. We are happy to take questions now.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first question from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. So my question is in terms of EBITDA per ton metrics. So if we see Q4 EBITDA per ton and compare it with Q3 and Q4, there is a drop in that except for general products on a sequential basis. So that's my first question.
So if you look at that drop, right, so general product, what we have been able to do is that see, I mean, the competition which Apollo faces, it's normally in the general segment, right, which is the commoditized portfolio. In the last four, five years, the brand what we have built, right, for our products against the small competition, right, so that has started to play, okay, that our price premium versus a second player, third player is now almost like 5%, okay, which used to be like 3% three or four years back. But after our consistent investment into branding, right, we have come to a situation where even in the highly competitive space, our margins are lying solid, right? As far as the other value-added products, this is more function of the discounts which we are giving, right, or the support which we give to our clients in the scenario of falling steel prices.
Understood, sir. So the next question is on volume sales guidance. So we had a guidance of 4.6-5 million ton sales for FY26. And are we sticking with that kind of guidance for FY26? And also in Q1, if you can indicate what kind of sales volume we can expect, are we seeing improvement in demand atmosphere and from when we can expect these headwinds which we are witnessing currently during this election season to go away? So something on demand front and sales volume guidance for 25, 26, if you can throw some color.
So see, I mean, can we do 5 million ton in FY26? Yes, we can do. We have the capacity. We have the distribution. We have the working capital available, right? We have the product basket. We have everything in place, right? But yes, I mean, given we do say 20%-25% growth in FY25, and then we're talking about 40% jump, right, to achieve 5 million ton next year. For that, we need macro support, right? And given the fact that India is now falling into steel deflation mode, right, this opens up almost a parallel industry which we are going to attack very, very aggressively, right, which is secondary steel substitute product, right? In the last 5 years, because of the high inflation in steel prices, that market got it became almost parallel to our HR coil-based tube markets.
And we have been highly vocal about it, that this trend has to reverse with the capacity which India is going to see in the steel sector, that deflation will come. And we are now seeing the trends already, which is visible in our April, May numbers, right, despite the fact that India is going slow because of elections. So yes, I mean, if we get the market, we can hit 5 million ton next year. Nothing stops us.
Okay. And one last question.
But yes, right now in our business model, we are projecting 20%-25% volume schedule for next three years.
Understood, sir. Last question. So what's the current spread or gap between the primary and secondary? So in last call, you said that the spread is coming down. The gap is coming down to INR 12 per kg from INR 15. So is this trend will continue because more and more hot-rolled coils get commissioned? So that will be beneficial for you. So currently, are you witnessing that trend?
Definitely. That's why I said no. Despite elections, our April, May has been both months have been pretty okay, right? As far as the spread is concerned, which was as high as INR 15,000 a ton, today it is around INR 6,000-INR 7,000 a ton.
Yeah. Thanks. That's it for me, sir. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to strictly two questions per participant. Should you have follow-up questions, we request you to rejoin the queue. We have our next question from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. A couple of questions from my side. If I look in Q4, the rise in realization was lower than the realization than the rise in cost per ton. And there was a significant gap over there. So did we, and the steel prices, of course, they kept on falling through the quarter. So did we see some kind of, I would say, impact of inventory on the cost that has now got normalized? If so, is it possible to quantify the inventory impact of it in Q4?
So Amit, see, I mean, there are two, three factors to this, okay? If you look at my product HR, okay, which must be coming around INR 69,000-INR 70,000 a ton, okay? Now, I sell a product which starts as low as INR 57,000 a ton and goes up to INR 100,000 a ton, right? That's my product basket, okay? Then I have elements like zinc because of my coated products, because of my pre-galved products, because of my GI products, galvanized products. Then we have color as a raw material, right, which we are using for our roofing sheets, right, and other super value-added products. So in raw material, it is now just not steel, okay, which is there. We are using much more products now, and we are selling more high-grade steel as well, right?
So even that steel is higher by like 5%-10%, right? We are supplying one product for a solar project where my raw material is INR 80,000 a ton, the landed because it's a super high-grade raw material, right? So I guess as our volume mix keeps on improving towards all these high-value-added products, there will be like INR 4,500 per ton of like you will see you won't be able to totally kind of reconcile with the steel because steel as element of my total raw material cost is going down. And this is one. And second, yes, I mean, I wouldn't say there is any inventory write-down, right? What we do is we offer discounts to our clients, right, multiple interest schemes which go, right? That is what depreciates our spread. But as of now, there is no inventory loss, right, which we took on our balance sheet.
Okay. Understood. The second question is, is it possible to quantify the capacity utilization at Raipur plant for Q4 and for the year and Dubai plant? And what do you expect the capacity utilization in FY2024 on an average at both these plants?
Sure. So if you see our Raipur plant today is around 1 million tons, okay, for the full year, 90,000 tons a quarter, 90,000 tons a month, 270,000 tons a quarter, and 1 million tons a year, right? My volume in Q4 from Raipur was around; the utilization was around 55%, right, on Q4. If I analyze Q4, it was around 55%, okay? And this year, we expect this ramp-up to go to around 70%-75%. And as far as Dubai plant is concerned, Dubai, we were to install 4 mills, right? Right now, 2 mills are operational, right? The volume which I did in Q4, based on 2 mills, my utilization was 45%. Two mills will start in the next one and two months.
Okay. So what will be the utilization in FY25 considering the entire plant, I mean, four mills?
Dubai, we are projecting around 150,000 tons, right, with a capacity of around 300,000. So it will be around 50% on all four mills running.
Great. Thank you so much and all the best.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Vikas Singh from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question pertains to Apollo that, there are the EBITDA per ton.
Mr. Vikas, your audio is breaking.
Vikas, I get you. I get that question. Go on. Yeah. Vikas, go on.
Hello?
Vikas, go on.
Mr. Vikas, are you there?
Yeah, I'm there.
Please go ahead with your question, Mr. Vikas. As Mr. Vikas got disconnected, we will move on to the next participant. We have our next participant from the line of next question is from the line of Mr. Akshay from Canara Robeco. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. So thank you for the opportunity. So just two questions, sir. I mean, I understand that because the demand scenario was bad and you had to give around INR 2, INR 2.5 extra discount. But so then what explains the balance part of the EBITDA per ton contraction? I mean, on one side, if I see sequentially, at least in the commodity product, we have done good, actually, which is either not the case in the normal scenario because debt gets impacted. But there, actually, we have shown sequential improvement.
But then in the other categories where we have relatively better share, so why so much contraction? I mean, just in case of Apollo, we also, sir, there was so much contraction that was there. I mean, we had the benefit of leverage because in the previous quarter, we did 600,000 tons, but now we are at 680,000. So even operating leverage was there. I mean, so, sir, why so much contraction? I mean, beyond INR 250, I mean, what explains that, if you can help, sir? Yeah, that was the first question, sir.
Okay. So let me address that first. See, Apollo, there are two types of product what we sell. One is the finished tube, right, which goes as a roofing structure. And second is just the sheet, roofing sheet, right, just galvanized. What has happened in Q4, the mix of the roofing sheet is pretty high compared to what it used to be in the first nine months, okay, or in Q3. And in selling the GP sheet, right, obviously, the margins are lower than what you generate by selling a complete finished tube. So that explains this deterioration in the EBITDA spread for Apollo Z, okay, in Q4. And secondly, see, I mean, last year, our last year also, if you look at FY23, our EBITDA spread was INR 4,500 a ton. And full year also, FY24, our EBITDA spread is marginally up by INR 5,000 a ton.
So please understand that Apollo has started its two large plants, right, the Raipur and Dubai, right? A lot of fixed costs are loaded upfront as of now, okay? So unless we hit the threshold of 60%-70% utilization, the operating deleverage will come into the account, right? That's what is keeping our margin depressed, right? And when environment is not too conducive to get 15% growth, right, which we did, okay, in FY2024, then yes, I mean, the sales team has the sales team is told, right, to give some extra incentives to push volumes. So just like, see, I mean, INR 150 a ton, right? That's what we're talking about, right? On 700,000-ton volume, that's like INR 100 a ton is like INR 7 crore, right, for the full quarter on an EBITDA of INR 300 crore. So it doesn't impact too much, right, to my overall profitability.
What guidance right now, I mean, till March 2024, the sales team had was that go aggressive on sales, right, because we knew that market is going to become conducive after steel capacity coming online, okay? So let's go and hit for like 70%-80% market share, okay, in HR coil-based tubes, right? I would urge you to please check with the large steel pipe traders in the country to please understand that what is the kind of market share which APL Apollo is right now having in the HR coil tube market. And none of the dealers will tell you below 75%. So yes, I mean, giving INR 5 crore-INR 10 crore here and there, but we are able to get market share. And when the prices stabilize, then we know how to get the premium from the market.
Anyway, we have established a premium of 4%-5% versus my competitor. So just allow us time till Q1, right, because Indian steel sector has gone through a very disruptive year, right? After five years, after a gap of five years, new capacity came in. So we're just trying to play around that to move forward, which we have done pretty well. You'll see that the momentum from after the elections, end of Q1, Q2, you will see that all whatever got lost, we will cover up.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Sneha Talreja from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir, and thanks a lot for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions from my end. For FY24, where was your total exports, and what is your target for FY25 and 26? That's my first question.
Say it again, Sneha.
Anubhav, what was your exports in FY24, and what is your target for 2025 and 2026?
So, Sneha, see, I mean, export sales for FY24 were around 110,000 tons, okay? And obviously, now for FY25, right, now we are projecting almost 150,000 tons from Dubai plant, right? So that will be incremental. So overall, my international business will be around 250,000 tons. There will be some, obviously, cannibalization from Dubai plant, which we will not buy from India. But overall, we expect it to grow to 250,000 tons.
Understood. And what would be your total volumes, which must be sold to Shankara this year, FY24 versus FY23?
Shankara is in single digit, my contribution, right, 78%.
78% of your total volumes.
Yeah. Yeah.
Understood. Thanks a lot, Anupam. I'll get back to you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Vikas Singh from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Mr. Vikas?
Hello.
Yes, you are audible now. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah. So just first question, while we are targeting this moderate before 25, 26, we have a tall target of 40% growth. So are we ditching the EBITDA per ton guidance of 5,500+ because we have to be very aggressive and can't have both EBITDA per ton improvement as well as that kind of volume?
Hello. Sanjay Sir?
Yeah. Hello?
Yes, sir.
So, Vikas.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Did you hear my question?
Vikas, when we cross 5 million tons, I have no doubt my margin is more than INR 5,500 per ton.
So we will be able to target both expansion in the margins as well as that kind of volume as well?
Yes. Sure. Because what my thinking is, see, you won't thought of [Foreign language] as per the election in quarter. We are not sounding so loud. But Q2 onwards, I don't think you will be able last year, what we are facing, the gap between the secondar y and the primar y, almost 15,000 piston of gas, [Foreign language].
Hello? Yes, sir. Yes, sir. I understand. Sir, so giving this spread has already come down to 7,000, so can we expect 2Q onwards our margin going back to at least the 5,000 levels, and that thing will take more lag?
[Foreign language]. But Q2 onwards, I have no problem.
And, sir, sorry, second question is basically my line got dropped, so I don't know whether it is asked or not. Are we still giving that INR 250-INR 300 discount, which we has giving last month, and we have actually pulled back that discount? And why APL Apollo, that EBITDA per ton decline was very sharp versus the other segment?
like that, not INR 250 and INR 300 discount. Maybe discount is more, but not in whole basket. So average is close to INR 250, INR 300. But our discount maybe this is INR 500, INR 1,000, maybe some for the INR 2,000 [Foreign language]. we are aggressive in the marketing right now. My first aim is to cover my 5 million ton capacity. Margins [Foreign language] , I am not caring. My single agenda is ki how I reach 5 million ton and how I improve my ROCE. Because if you see ki when we cross 5 million ton and we have EBITDA margin of maybe INR 2,500 crore and INR 3,000 crore, just to see my ROCE number. And number two, my aim is right now, first time after long time, we have net cash position. my target is that at least we cross four figure with net cash position to INR 1,000 crore plus. [Foreign language] .
Understood, sir. And, sir, the gap for Apollo, because my line got dropped, so I couldn't hear that answer.
That was because of Vikas, the product mix within Apollo, we sell finish tube and we sell roofing sheet, right? So this quarter, roofing sheet volume was higher, right, which carries a lower margin than a finish tube.
But our annual mix, it should not change. And what kind of value added and engineered sales mix we are expecting for FY25?
So we close at 60% in FY24, right? Idea is to take it to 75% when we hit 5 million ton volume, Vikas.
Understood. Thank you. And that's all from my side.
Thank you. We have a next question from line of Varman Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the shift between.
Mr. Nitesh, can you please be a little louder?
Sure. Is this better?
Yes
Yeah. So thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the shift between primary and secondary, right? Two parts to it. One, in your estimation, over the last two-three years, because of this increased delta, how much incremental share the secondary segment has taken from the primary? That is one. And second, sir, you have mentioned in previous calls, right, that the secondary market is basically dying. Want to understand the intrinsic factors behind it, because some industry participants also believe that the markets will coexist as they have for past few decades. And there is a certain segment, price sensitive segment, which would still opt for secondary. So just from your perspective on if anything is changing in terms of customer preference, etc., and that particular segment need.
Yes, sir. Just understood that last 4-5 years se Hindustan [Foreign language] . Because if you go on cost, then always the cost of the primary steel is less than the secondary steel. [Foreign language] .
Understood. So that's really helpful. Thanks for the elaborate, sir. One more question from my side. So if you look at the five players, right, steel tube players, including you, everyone is expanding capacity, estimating good demand growth. So basically every player is increasing their capacity by 2-3x over the next 3, 4, 5 years. But the demand is expected to grow in 8%-10% and at let's say low teens. So do you believe that this can create an overcapacity situation in the industry over next 3-4 years? And do you think the demand will be sufficient to absorb the new capacities that are coming up?
But what you are saying 2-3x capacity, everybody is going to increase. I am not seeing it, frankly, in the ground reality. I am seeing only one in the announcements. Only one I am seeing as serious, Tata is coating, he is going to in 6 years capacity into 3x. I am not bothered by others for Tata ka koi capacity [Foreign language] . Because we are also talking in the next 5 years for 5 million tons ka capacity addition. And number two, when we are talking with the steel plants and the government, [Foreign language] .
If you see that around 10% anywhere in a growing country tube utilization of total steel consumption, if India is going to consume 300 million tons of steel in next 5, 6, 7 years, then India will need 30 million tons tube capacity. And in India you can see better than us that where in balance sheet where how much strength is there and who can ramp up this 30 million tons capacity quickly. On that right now making more comments or talking more, I don't think time will be safe that how it will be done. But we are very sure that our first landmark is going to 5 million tons, then the second may be 1 year before and 1 year after. And the second landmark is for 10 million tons. We are very sure.
Right, sir. Really helpful and characteristic. Thank you.
you. We have our next question from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. My question is on the capacity expansion, which is highlighted in the presentation. So versus the nine-month presentation, the capacity expansion now is more in heavy and super heavy, and that planned in light and general structures is lower now. So where is the shift? Where is this change happening, and what is the thought process behind this?
Right, Anupam. So this is what we kind of had when we laid down the vision for 5 million ton capacity, right? So we were seeing that what all segments we should focus, right? But the success, what we saw in big and super big sections in last 8-9 months, so this made us to believe that we need to install more such mill, right? Because the demand, which we project, is going to come, right? And also stay ahead of the competition, because see, I mean, we installed 300-300 mill in 2017, right? And now competition is talking about installing such mill, right, after 4-5 years. And now they are tracking us. They see that our 500-500 square mill is gaining momentum. So by the time they think in next 3-4 years, they will want to install such.
We will be ready with 1,000, 1,600, 600, right? So it is just to give a statement in the industry and to our clients that the demand, which is going to come up, right? We are ready to cater that demand. So it's just like minor tweaking in our capacity expansion program, which got most skewed towards heavy and super heavy sections.
Okay, okay. And I understand that. And in terms of the capex and the capital allocations, obviously your cash flows are very strong, as is visible. So let's say next couple of years, cash flows would obviously be significantly positive. So what is the plan in terms of allocating that between capex incrementally over the next two, three years? What is, let's say, if you can outline that a bit, and also any plans of any sort of a buyback, which can happen over the medium term?
Right now, if you see, for the going to 5 million ton, we have zero outflow for CapEx, because we are going to CapEx almost INR 400-500 crore, about INR 500 crore. We have some non-core assets with us, which in this way will be our de-drainage. So here our cash flow is zero till 5 million ton. For next 4-5 million ton, we don't require a lot of money, because we have a lot of infrastructure already. Right, think our entire business plan, according to that, INR 2,500-3,000 crore will be our CapEx for the next another 5 million ton.
Our current INR 1,900 crore this year, our liabilities total closed in the books. First, this year, we will go to INR 1,000 crore cash flow on net cash. We negotiate with the steel plant to see what discount we get on cash payment, or not. As it's better to go for the buyback, or either better to remove the creditor part from the books, or either we go for the demand. Whatever is best for the shareholder and the stakeholders, we go for that.
Okay, okay. Understand. So that's all from my side.
Thank you. We have a next question from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir. So you had, I think, in your opening remarks, Anubhav had mentioned solar pipe. So just want a little more, little more details on this. So is this basically solar torque tubes that we are manufacturing, and this is more of the mounting structure of the solar thing? Because I remember a few years back, we had a JV with a tracking company, and that, I think, did not go through. So some more details on this solar thing would help.
Sure, Pallav. So what I meant with solar was our steel tubes being used for the solar structure. Okay? So what has happened is that now, if you see any solar installation, which has taken place, whether on ground or roof top, it has happened with built-up sections, right? H-beams, I-beams. But what you see is that the steel tubes, right, they offer a better steel tubes offer better design in terms of structural optimization. So this is where we are pushing the designers of solar. We are pushing the designers of solar structures to go for tubes. That is one. Second, the big shift, which is happening, is that whatever on ground solar installation has taken place, it is standalone. Now, the world is moving towards tracking solar systems, right?
Tracking solar system needs to be built only on tubular structure. It cannot. Tracker cannot move on conventional built-up section. So this is where the market opportunity lies, and we are working with all the large solar power producers, right, to develop trackers, to develop their tracking structures with help of our tubes. So this is where this is where the opportunity lies. This is where the opportunity lies. So it is for the structure. We are not getting into solar panel manufacturing or something. It is just using our tubes to make the solar structure more efficient, so that the solar power producer can increase its efficiency from solar.
Yeah, so I got that part. So I am talking about solar top tubes, that use in the tracking system. So right now, are we also manufacturing that, and are we empaneling with some of the vendors, who supply that, and this is the deal.
No, no, ha, ha. So I will not like to name our clients, but yes, we are working with solar power producers directly.
Okay. And so as of now, I mean, this may not be very significant portion, but it will be going ahead. This can form a.
Opportunity, so just for the reference point, 1 megawatt of solar tracker requires 25 tons of top tubes.
Okay. And this will be sort of an empowerment process? So like an auto OEM approval process, would that be the right way to look at this opportunity?
I don't think so, because we work with one of India's largest solar power producers, okay, eight months back. They told us that, "Can you develop this product of a pentagonal shape tube?" Okay? Within eight months, we were ready with the innovative design, and the supply also started within eight months.
Sure. And lastly, I think special grade of steel is used. So I think maybe recently, one of the two Indian companies has started manufacturing it. But otherwise, this I think was more of an imported thing. So is that why the prices you mention were very high for a particular grade of steel used?
But now, yes, all the Indian steel manufacturers are working on the graded steel, and they improve a lot of.
Sure. Okay, yeah. Thank you. That's it from me.
Thank you, sir. We have a next question from line of Bharat Shah from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead. Hello.
Jai Jai Ji, Namaskar.
Namaskar, Bharat Bhai. Namaskar.
Yes. I do not want to ask a question, but I just wanted to make a point. I understand that 2023-24, 2022-23, in both the movement of steel prices has been unexpected and violently high. And I think it is to the credit of APL Apollo, that very, very difficult period of downward and very volatile prices of the steel, we have been able to deal with without surrendering of a company. But I also believe that now we have capacity of a time, we are fully prepared with our assets. The opportunity is extremely significant. Even new opportunity of exports is something that we have opened up. We have one of the more highest innovation ratio in ST used compare to any other player, domestic and the global. Even people like Zekelman, they have much lower level of innovation than we have.
And with the kind of vigor and energy, with which we pursue every cost line, whether it is logistics, whether it is freight, energy cost, and whatever, and with the premium premiumization value added portfolio, these all factors keeping in mind now we have no option, but to perform remarkably higher the way APL Apollo always has been known for and has been doing. These last two years to some extent in my opinion have been deferred. Deferred in others' definition perhaps 0% happens. For APL Apollo even that 15% is deferred only, I believe. But now we have all the things ready. The stage is prepared. Everything is set. And for not just 2024-25, but for years ahead, this is our duty that now so many factors are in our favor, after that our delivery that previous APL Apollo, which was two years ago, even better than that our I believe that should be. So I wanted to hear from you, what do you think of that?
Bharat bhai, first of all, thank you for giving us so much time to complete our first statement. But first, you have to understand, Bharat bhai, that we are going with a period, where steel prices are very, very volatile, and we are going to be through the biggest capex. We were doing the biggest capex of our life, where in almost two years, Raipur and Dubai combined, we did INR 1,712 crore capex, whose number has not yet come in the books. And INR 670 crore capex, our this second class to improvement the capacity and the value addition, our total around 2,500 capex happened. It's a majorly capex in two years. One-one capex that is, it only appears in the book, but behind it there are many more reasons and many more factors that do not appear in the book. Like, according to that capacity, like today, if you see our salary cost of last year, then almost close to INR 250 crore.
Almost close to INR 1,000 per ton, which earlier on 600-700 ton per INR 670 per ton I brought. As soon as capacity improves, that cost of mine will fall back to INR 670 per ton. This type of other fixed administration costs that were, due to not completion of timely capex of Raipur and the Dubai plant, that has also impacted margins. Plus, this steel price was a very big reason that on the INR 15,000 gap, we had to maintain market sell, so there no doubt that we had to also sell the material on the pressure selling we had to do. And as now it seems to me that things onwards, this capacity steel plants capacity ramp up has happened. Raw material availability is very good. And four-five HR coil mills that are starting, they are also almost as per plan standing that from where that capacity will be ready.
I don't think, meaning it doesn't seem to me that the old one that you want to see Apollo, will come back very soon. I can say only one that you can believe on us that as much as we people can hard working, my whole management and whole organization is engaged on that hard working. But unfortunately, a little bit our timing is not supporting us, where we are stuck. And in Q1 a little bit we are slow due to election period that we do not want to be aggressive that somewhere something upside-down doesn't happen or something doesn't happen. We have not taken any big risk, we are not going in any big aggressive. Due to all that, it seems to me that you will see the old Apollo back.
[Foreign language] .
[Foreign language] .
[Foreign language] APL Apollo has performed where performed।
[Foreign language] , today my premium is almost close to INR 3,000 ton. [Foreign language] hi product value addition ho jaayega. Just give me some time to apne branding, innovation, distribution, costing [Foreign language] , Bharat Bhai, [Foreign language] there is no leakages and no agar is pahad par is [Foreign language] .
No, this is typically the statement which can be certified as a statement of Mr. Sanjay.
[Foreign language] . We have a commanding at least INR 3,000 of premium in the market.
[Foreign language] ।
Statement to give on the day on call, this is a statement too. You can go and study the channel, either Pune, either structural tubing, HR coil material mein Apollo ka maal INR 3,000 plus [Foreign language] .
[Foreign language].
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language] . And all the very best wishes. And it is really remarkable with the kind of volatility in the steel prices in this 2023-24, as well as in 2022-23. It's not easy to handle. And in a short period to deal with it without any suffering is a phenomenal achievement. [Foreign language] . We have products, we have marketing organization, we have channels, we have plant and capacity in the value added segment. And we have huge amount of focus and drive to make it happen. [Foreign language] .
[Foreign language].
Ji, ji. Thank you, Sanjay ji, and all the very best.
Thank you, Bharat Bhai. Thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Due to time constraints, that would be our last question for today. And I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Thanks, Manav. Thanks all the participants for dropping by. Hope to see you soon for our next quarter earnings call. And thanks again to Elara for having us here. Thank you so much. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you on behalf of Elara Securities Private Limited. That concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.