Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the APL Apollo Tubes Limited Q4 FY25 Post Results Earnings Phone Call, hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions once the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sailesh Raja from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah, good evening, all. On behalf of B&K, I would like to thank everyone for joining APL's Q4 FY25 earnings conference call. We are pleased to have with us today Mr. Sanjay Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Deepak Gohel, Director of Operations; Mr. Anubhav Gupta, Chief Strategy Officer; and Mr. Chetan, who is CFO of the company. I will now hand over the call to Mr. Anubhav Gupta for his opening remarks, following which we will open the floor for the Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thanks, Sailesh, and thanks, B&K, for hosting our organization for our Q4 FY25 earnings call. I welcome all the participants who have dropped by. If I have to start this call regarding our FY25 earnings, a few highlights I would like to make. Number one, we crossed 3.1 million tons as a sales volume for the full year. This makes APL Apollo as the world's largest downstream steel player outside China. In terms of structural steel tube, we would be even bigger than the Chinese steel pipe companies. It's been the second year that we have closed our balance sheet with net cash. As of 31st March 2025, we stand with a net cash of more than INR 300 crore on our balance sheet. Our operating cash flow to EBITDA is more than 100%.
Again, if you see last Q4 year trend, our OCF to EBITDA has been around 90% consistently. Our ROC for FY 2025 was 25%. This is slightly off last year, but we shall come back very strongly, and we shall give you reasons as we move forward. It is the fifth consecutive year of almost zero working capital days. We started cash and carry campaign in FY 2021, and throughout five years, our distributors, dealers, customers have given thumbs up to our strategy of cash and carry, which has led to massive cash flow generation for our company over the last five years. If we look at the performance in the last 12 months, I would like to take a step back a bit more. Last two years, we have grown our volume by 45%, 15% in FY 2024, and 20% in FY 2025.
This came in the hindsight of weak macros, weak retail spend, low government spend on infrastructure, general elections, uncertainty on global trade, and obviously, the steel down cycle, which started one and a half years ago. What it did is that it depressed our EBITDA spreads below INR 4,000 per ton in FY 2025, as we closed the year with INR 3,900 per ton. This is not the real APL Apollo. We are capable of generating much better EBITDA spreads, and we'll tell about the strategy how we're going to achieve that. What this growth has done to us is that this volume growth of 45% in the last two years, it has made us reach at a market share within structural steel pipes where we can command massive brands in here.
Now, if you look at the margin in our general product category, we reported INR 2,800 per ton EBITDA. Now, that's almost INR 1,000 per ton higher than what we have been reporting over the last five years. Even in the most competitive segment, which is general category, we are now minimum 5% higher premium than our nearest competitor. This is the realization of brand building, what we saw in 2020 when we moved to cash and carry, because we knew that the steel pipe industry cannot survive without APL Apollo products. We could command cash and carry. After five years, now we are again sure that our brand is so strong, our market share is so strong that we can command more than 5% premium even in one of the base category product segments. This is a big achievement.
I wou ld like to highlight what we have been able to achieve in FY 2025. With this positioning, we are confident that we will come back with the EBITDA spread near INR 5,000 per ton in FY 2026, which will even improve going forward as our sales mix continues to improve, and we continue to expand our markets internationally where we get higher EBITDA spreads. As far as the volume guidance is concerned, we are highly confident that we can continue to deliver 20% growth YoY over the next three to four years. This is the reason that we are expanding our capacities to 7 million tons in the next three years from the current 5 million tons. The CapEx for this is around INR 15 billion, which will be spread across the next three years, and it will be easily funded from the internal cash flow.
Now, this expansion is based on four strategies. Number one is expansion in the virgin markets. Virgin market number one is East India, where we are adding two plants with combined capacity of 500,000 tons. The next virgin market is Dubai International Market, where we are adding additional 200,000 tons. In South India, we are adding up a fourth plant with a capacity of 360,000 tons. The next strategy here is the expansion in the new product segment. One is the roofing sheet, which has done well for Apollo in the last two years since the launch, and we are increasing capacity by further 500,000 tons in this segment and another 100,000 tons in the heavy segment.
The third strategy is to focus on exports from the Indian mills, and that's the reason that we have decided to put up a plant in Bhuj, Gujarat, with a capacity of 300,000 tons. Now that India is being seen as a favorable trade partner from the west side, we are confident that with our strength of steel buying and expertise in structural steel tubes, we will be able to gain market share in international markets from Indian mills as well. The fourth strategy is, of course, to maintain the brand premium for APL Apollo, which will keep our margins high in the coming years.
Lastly, I would like to tell you that after 12 months, when we come on this call again, our ROC will be around 35%, and we would have covered all the earnings loss what happened in FY 2025 because of depressed margins, and the company will come out much stronger with more cash on the books and higher exposure ROC. Thanks so much. Happy to take questions now.
Thank you, sir. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and congratulations for a great set of numbers and announcing the capacity expansion plan, much awaited. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the capacity expansion plan itself. You have highlighted that you will also expand in roofing sheets and heavy structures. Now, I just wanted to understand what is our current capacity utilization in both these segments, and what gives us confidence to launch capacities in these two particular segments where the traction has been a tad slower. That is my first question.
Amit, roofing sheet is 100% utilized as of now. Capacity is small, and that's why we are expanding. In heavy structural, the utilization is 60% as of now.
Okay. Okay. By the time this capacity comes up, you expect that this segment also would be willing to utilize above 80% kind of utilization will be there.
That's right. That will increase, right, for next three years. Yeah.
Of course. The second question is, in slide 22, you have highlighted the opportunity in solar space. Now, in which of these capacity expansions does this particular opportunity fit in?
This is for solarity. I mean, there are two or three kinds of applications. One is the product, which comes under coated, then the top tubes, which come under heavy, and pre-galv also, which is rust-proof. Some of the pipes also come in the galv. It is spread across the galv.
Is it true that for solar, the support structure particularly you can't use DFP? One of your competitors was highlighting that.
Yeah. As of now, the top tubes are being produced on conventional mills. That's right.
Okay. Sure. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Kumar Saumya from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. Just one question from my side. In future, sir, the thing is—
I'm sorry to interrupt, Kumar. Could you please be a little louder?
Hello.
Yes. Just increase the louder.
Yeah. Am I audible now?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Just one clarity I want to understand is, in future, the steel prices had gone down by INR 5, and we had booked an inventory loss of about INR 150. This quarter, again, the steel prices are at about INR 5. If you could just help me understand, what is the inventory gain in this quarter?
In Q2, the decline in steel prices was around INR 8,000 a ton. Okay? That was very steep. That is why we had to book inventory losses. In Q4, the increase in steel prices is around INR 2,000 a ton, which does not move the needle plus or minus. This EBITDA of INR 4.13 billion is without any inventory gains.
Okay. Sir, lastly, what will be the utilization levels at Raipur and Dubai for the full sector as of 31st March?
Raipur, if you see, it is around 60% on blended basis across the product segment. Dubai, we have operational capacity of 300,000 tons. In Q4, we did a volume of around 45,000 tons.
For the year at Dubai, sir?
Year-end is around 145,000 tons what we did for the full year, 145,000 tons. Out of that, 45,000 tons came in Q4.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Bagrodia from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Sanjay. Hi, Anupam. The capacity, you said the growth rate of 20% plus over the next three years. Your own calculation suggests that it should be better than that because current demand for the structural steel tube is about 9 million ton, which is expected to double to 18 million in five to six years. Essentially, it is equal between HR virgin material and secondary route material for an average. Over six years, we expect actually the secondary route to decline, and therefore the entire increase to be taken up by the primary virgin material. That itself suggests close to 20% compounded growth for six years. If we gain the share further as we expect to, then we should be doing better than that 20%, isn't it?
Good evening, Bagrodia. I can explain to you that you already said the growth is around 20%. Because you know the rate with the economy and the scenario is not helping us. We are also pressured to maintain the margin also. What amount of margin? INR 4,000 [Foreign language] से नीचे आ गया तो उसको वापस खींच के हम INR 5,000 के आसपास लेकर आए हैं. We have to maintain this margin also. Our total, I can say you our total plan for 2030 is 10 million ton minimum. So 10 million ton, it means 5 million ton we are already ready for marketing. हमारा plant ready for 5 million ton. And 2 million ton का हम total नया capacity already हमने plan out कर दिया जो अगले तीन साल के अंदर में 30 महीने के अंदर में लगाएंगे 2 million ton का capacity.
[Foreign language] ]इसमें हमारा एक plant Kolkata है, एक plant हमारा ये गोरखपुर है, सिलीगुड़ी वाला plant हमने Kolkata shift किया है. वहां से हमको freight advantage ज्यादा मिल रहा था. और Ahmedabad का plant हमने Bhuj shift किया है क्योंकि हमको वहां से export का market मिल रहा था ज्यादा. One plant in Bengaluru, जहां पर हमको lighter gauge में हमारे पास material बहुत soft हो गया है. One plant in Dubai for API tube for exporting US and Canada market and locally Dubai also. Total में and some coated product में हम कुछ Raipur में capacity लगाएंगे 5-1 लाख ton की. Total मिला के combined ये 2 million ton की capacity होती है, जिसमें हमारा लगभग INR 1,200 करोड़ के आसपास का investment आएगा. और हमने save side में INR 200-300 करोड़ maintenance capex के लिए रखा है अगले तीन साल के लिए.
[Foreign language] तो इसमें हमारा total हमने सभी CapEx plan जो board से मंजूरी ली है, INR 1,500 करोड़ का लिया है. उसके बाद हम ढाई-ढाई लाख ton के चार plant plan कर रहे हैं value addition में, जो अगले 2030 तक depending on the cash flow and the balance sheet and the economy particular situation जो भी रहता है India का. ढाई लाख ton का लगभग seamless pipe का plant, ढाई लाख ton का API का plant, ढाई लाख का automatic tube का plant, and ढाई लाख ton का SS pipe का plant. हमने ढाई-ढाई लाख ton के चार plant plan out किए हैं, जो हम 2030 तक लगाएंगे, जिसमें another हमारा INR 1,000 करोड़ के आसपास का CapEx आएगा. तो total 2030 तक हमारा CapEx होगा INR 2,500 करोड़ के आसपास.
[Foreign language] to 2 million ton in the light model, as you say, in the light asset model we will go to 2 million ton now for outsourcing. We have already started discussions with the plants that are already set up, wherever our capacity is full, it has been allocated. We will take them for outsourcing. And from there, our target is to outsource 2 million ton. So, in total, we have made a plan for 10 million ton by 2030 in this way.
Okay. So you indirectly confirm that basically that number is a basic number, but potential to do higher than that is evident in the capacity expansion that you are planning yourselves.
Yes, sir.
[Foreign language] जी. Sundarjay, दूसरा question, which जो आपके पहले वाले उत्तर से ही is MN 18, you talked about कि जो profitability बीच में गड़बड़ा गई थी, जो the kind of swing in the unprecedented swing in the steel prices, which was beyond anybody's control. तो वो मैं समझ सकता हूं, but as a strategy, we have best products, best plants, best ability to cover, and industry growth itself is in evidence as to why it will do well. And structural primary steel tube industry, why it will do well. तो हमारी ये 20 या 22 या 25 तक का volume growth, तो I definitely believe is something which is implicit.
[Foreign language] अभी हमारा focus surer तरीके से profit को बढ़ाने का per turn and उसको मजबूती से period after period solidity से increase करने में शायद ज्यादा focus हो, तो that will give quality of the growth far superior predictability and solidity.
[Foreign language] Possibility का जो सवाल है, देखो 5,000 के आसपास का data तो हम ले आए हैं, जिसका Q4 में भी we give the result. I think so कि हमारा ये FY 2025-2026 भी हमारा better रहना चाहिए, जिस pace के साथ हम शुरू हुए हैं. हमारा total इस समय focus margin पे है. Last February month से हमने अपना total focus margin पर कर दिया है कि growth के साथ margin चाहिए. इसमें सबसे important चीज हम ये देख रहे हैं कि हमको उसके बाद भी growth मिल रही है. Nobody can replace us in the market. तो उससे हमको काफी कहते हैं हौसला आ रहा है. और margin को हम slowly and slowly improve कर रहे हैं. Plus कुछ हमारे value rate products सबकी लाइनें आ रही हैं.
[Foreign language] Like अभी हमारा अगले next month में, इस month या next month में हमारा 1,000 square का हमारा mill चालू हो जाएगा, जो world में पहला mill है, जिसका capacity तो 100,000 ton का है, but हम इस साल उसका target लेकर चल रहे हैं, 50,000 ton करेंगे हम उसमें. तो वहां पर मेरा जो target है कि हमारा 10,000 ton से कम से कम EBITDA extra रहेगा. एक coated में जी क्या कहते हैं उसको?
Rust.
[Foreign language] Rust. Pipe में, pipe जहां पर हमारा EBITDA margin जो है, क्या है?
₹7.50.
[Foreign language] 7,000 ton के आसपास होता है, उसकी हमारी 200,000 ton से capacity और बढ़ रही है. ये मालूम है जो इसी महीने वो plant चालू हो जाएगा. तो like इस तरह के छोटे-छोटे काम, like Dubai में हमारा margin अच्छा है. अब Dubai काफी ramp up हो रहा है हमारा. Dubai में already हमारा 300,000 ton की capacity लग चुकी है और 200,000 ton की लाइन हमारी और चालू हो जाएगी अगले एक-दो-तीन महीने में. तो 500,000 ton तक का plant है, वहां से भी हमारा value addition बहुत बढ़ेगा. वहां पर हमारा EBITDA margin जो है, INR 7,000-8,000 per ton है. और वहां से हमारा Europe and US and Canada अच्छी market खुल रही है. तो कुछ यहां से भी हम improvement कर रहे हैं.
[Foreign language] तो but मैं अभी ज्यादा margin commit करके, I don't want to take pressure on myself and the system, कि हमको growth भी देखनी है, हमको margin भी देखना है. No doubt, margin अब मेरे हिसाब से year-on-year improve होता जाएगा.
[Foreign language] जी. मतलब मेरा कहने का वही ज्यादा था कि basically volume growth हमारी 2022-2023 के बदले 2020-2021 आई या 2019-2020 आई, तो भी ज्यादा फर्क नहीं पड़ेगा. But profit pool को steadily and strongly volume growth से ज्यादा बढ़ाए, वो.
[Foreign language] ये चीज हम policy करेंगे और ज्यादा हमारा ज्यादा focus ROC पे है. This year we are targeting, we take the target of ROC of 35%. हमने इस साल का अपना target बनाया है 35% ROC लेकर जाने का, जो this year हमारा 25% के आसपास था. और next दो-तीन साल में हमारा target है कि इस ROC को 50% से ऊपर cross कराए.
[Foreign language] तो वो मेरा last question था ROC पे ही. आपने अच्छा उत्तर दिया, बहुत वही प्रश्न मैं पूछ रहा था.
[Foreign language] उसका तो मैं पहले ही जवाब दे दिया.
[Foreign language] क्योंकि structurally per ton हमारी CapEx गिने तो ज्यादा से ज्यादा INR 8,000, INR 8,500 ton आ सकती है. और working capital तो है नहीं हमारा. तो यदि हम INR 5,000 भी EBITDA कमाते per ton, तो 45-50, 45% का ROC तो structurally.
[Foreign language] ये this year 25% के आसपास रहा हमारा mind पूरा year का. This year we are taking a target of 35%, उसको हर साल बढ़ाएंगे. तो उसमें क्या है Barajah भाई, मेरा जो strength है mile stand is controlling of the cost. Mile stand is ये talk about the vision of future. तो like अभी हमने कुछ cost में और अभी improvement कर रहे हैं. Like आपने देखा होगा इस साल हमारी ये जो employment cost है, almost close to INR 1,000 ton है. अब मेरे को लगता है कि इस साल हम इसको घटा के हम INR 800 per ton के आसपास ही जाएंगे this year FY 2025-2026 में. और 2026-2027 में हम इसको INR 600 ton पर ले आएंगे. We are targeting with the two step to reduce INR 600 से नीचे तो और लाना मुश्किल होगा.
[Foreign language] ₹600 तक का हमारा vision बनाया कि इसको ₹1,000 ton को ₹600 पर लाना है. Number two, इसके लिए आपने देखा होगा मैंने एक system को cost control, standing cost control करने के लिए signal भी दिया अपनी standing मैंने and commission सब मैंने withdraw कर दिया है.
[Foreign language] नहीं, नहीं, आखिरी.
[Foreign language] Surrender कर दिया है.
[Foreign language] जी. जी. जी.
[Foreign language] Number two, एक एक एक बार Barajah भाई, मैं बता रहा हूं, जो number two हमारा जो एक और हमारे पास gap है, हमारा जो ये unit per unit cost है, इस समय last year का हमारा है INR 7.6 per unit cost, electricity cost. उसको अब हमारे काफी solar के और renewable ये transfer काफी हमने किए हैं, contract sign किए हैं. I think इस साल भी INR 7.6 को हम INR 6.5 से नीचे ले आएंगे. Next year we are targeting to उसको INR 5.5 पर लाने का. ये अगर हमारा मोटा-मोटी 30 करोड़ unit लगा है, तो अगर हम INR 2 unit से इसको cost reduce करते हैं, granularity unit अभी बढ़ेगी भी consumption हमारी, ये 50 करोड़ unit के आसपास चली जाएगी. तो INR 2 से हमारा सीधा-सीधा INR 100 करोड़ का saving होगा.
[Foreign language] तो इस तरह के छोटे-छोटे Barajah भाई, हम काम बहुत कर रहे हैं to control the cost.
[Foreign language] नहीं, APL Apollo जैसा cost over here मिलना मुश्किल है. मैं पहले ही से acknowledge करूंगा. Just last comment I'll offer, feedback as well as comment. Given the unprecedented volatility in the steel price and given overall challenging demand condition, especially considering the fact that this happened to be a year when pre-election, post-election phase got combined, and therefore it affected the demand in many other things. तो ये challenging environment में first half के बाद second half में जिस तरीके के result आए, वो वाकई में काबिले तारीफ है. Would you say कि this probably has been the most difficult year to manage in terms of the external challenges?
[Foreign language] मैंने देखो आगे geopolitical position क्या रहता है, मेरे को नहीं मालूम, but मेरे life का last year बहुत tough था. मैं second half में मेरे को अपना पूरा ऊपर से नीचे तक ताकत बनाना पड़ा numbers निकालने के लिए. This is the toughest time of my life. आगे क्या रहता है, मेरे को नहीं मालूम, but February onwards we are in the comfort position. हमारा अप्रैल ठीक गया है, we are on the right on track.
[Foreign language] जी.
[Foreign language] जनवरी से हम बहुत tough time में थे.
Congratulations Sanjay, entire APL team and all the very best for probably what is going to be the most exciting phase ahead.
Thank you Barajah [Foreign language] भाई, thank you. We hope so कि हम आपकी उम्मीदों पर पूरा खरा उतरने की कोशिश करेंगे.
[Foreign language] जी. जी. आपके प्रयत्नों में तो मैंने कभी कोई gap नहीं देखा है.
[Foreign language] Result, जो एक कहते हैं ना कि वो slogan है, जो जीता वो सिकंदर. Result भी चाहिए, predictable तो हमारे कर भी नहीं है, but हम जीतने की कोशिश करेंगे, सिकंदर बनने की कोशिश करेंगे हम.
[Foreign language] Ji. Ji. And all the very best for that.
Thank you Bagrodia bhai, thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question comes from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for this opportunity. My question is specifically on the guidance on sales volume which we provided in the last quarter for 2026 and 2027 of 4 and 5 million tons. If we go with 20% volume growth, this guidance is slightly exceeding that. Is it fair to work on these numbers of 4 and 5 million tons of sales volume for 2026-2027, or will it be slightly lower than that?
No, I mean, see, I mean, this number which we gave, this we gave with a lot of thought, right, and a lot of calculation behind. It should be backed with the market situation, it should be backed with the capacities in all our plants, it should be backed with our distribution network, it should be backed with this situation, what is coming out at macro level, global political level. Yes, I mean, we are confident that 20% year-on-year volume growth for the next 3-4 years is highly achievable.
Okay. The jump in the EBITDA per ton for general products from INR 1,970 to INR 2,800, is one factor, is it because of the drop in the spread between Pathra and primary, and discounts coming off, and will it sustain going forward?
No, no, no. This is because of the market share at which now Apollo is positioned, right, where the replacement for our brand is not visible.
Understood. So it will be sustained, right, going forward?
It will sustain, yes.
Yeah. Last part is on the guidance of INR 1,500 crore of CapEx, how it will be phased out for which year-wise, if you can close some idea for 2026-2027-2028?
500 crore per year we can factor in.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you, sir. The next question comes from the line of Sneha Talreja from Nuvama Wealth. Please go ahead.
Good evening, team, and congratulations on strong set of numbers. Just wanted to deep dive on your EBITDA per ton. Firstly, you have, of course, pulled up the discount, and you mentioned there are no inventory gains. What could be the operating leverage benefit that you would have received only in this particular quarter?
So Sneha, if you see, I mean, Q3 volume was 830,000 ton, and Q4 volume is 850,000 ton. Sequentially, cost benefits will not be too much visible. They will be more visible in quarter one as the volume expands beyond 850,000 ton or second quarter. Yes, if you look at our employee cost, that has come down, right? Obviously, it is supported by the surrendering of salary by Sanjay G. Other than that, we are working on all the fronts, whether it is freight cost, whether it is power cost, whether it is steel wastage cost, right? Some benefits keep on coming in. Then the volume ramp up, whether it is 20,000 ton, quarter-on-quarter increase, some leverage you will continue to see over the coming quarters.
Understood. Given your mention about the salary part of it, how sustainable is that, and until when can we see those kind of benefits continuing? That's one. Secondly, we could also see that kind of there was a tug-of-war between volumes and margins. Even I'm seeing if you did give guidance of 10% Q2 volume growth, and you also gave INR 400 crore EBITDA, where we did not see volume growth at the same level, but we saw you exceeding the margins. Is it something that next year also there will be going to be margins is going to be something like your core focus, or how are you planning out things here?
See, I mean, again, I mean, like when I started the call, I said last two years we grew our volume by 45%, right? This volume growth came in the backdrop of a very, very challenging environment, right, which was macro at country GDP level, then elections, pre-election, post-election. Thirdly, our own industry, which was going through massive down cycles, right? Steel prices crashed by 25% in the last 18 months. That is what depressed the margins. The good part was that we could build the market share at a level now where we stand, we can command the 5%-6% premium over our next competitor, right? This gives us confidence that maintaining 20% volume growth, like how we did in the last two years, my EBITDA spread will continue to improve.
Plus, all the new capacities which are coming up, they are also a lot of strategically located, whether it is new virgin markets like East India, Bhuj for exports, or it is international sales from Dubai plants, or it is entry into new product segments, right? We are ensuring that the existing capacity does not get cannibalized, which could again depress the margins. The incremental growth is coming from new geographies, new products, right? Better sales mix, which will continue to improve our EBITDA spreads going forward. EBITDA margin will continue to improve without stress on the volume because volume is coming from new geographies, new markets, new products, new plants.
Understood. Lastly, on the spread which has increased now between the Pathra, the primary, and the secondary spread, which was very much favorable for quite some time, two to three, I think that's gone up to seven to eight. What's the action that you've taken on the ground? Can we hear more about it, that what are you doing additionally in the commoditized segment?
Sneha, right now, I mean, INR 7,000 per ton spread is pretty much comfortable, right, to continue to work with. I mean, we face challenge when these spreads increase beyond INR 15,000-INR 20,000 per ton, right? Under INR 10,000 per ton, the market is well positioned to go towards HR coil-based structural steel tubes, right? Obviously, in the month of October, November, when the gap came down, there was a boost of sales in that segment. Like I said, this general segment of one and a half million ton, what we are doing, right? Our growth is coming beyond this 1.5 million ton, right, which does not get affected from sponge iron steel pipes. Whether it is coated, whether it is rust-proof, whether it is heavy, whether it is light, whether it is galv, right? All these new products, Dubai market does not export market, right?
Our incremental growth is coming from products and markets where sponge iron steel pipes don't impact the volume.
Understood. Lastly, in case you can highlight on the Dubai market, what's the kind of opportunity? We heard you saying on US-Canada opportunities also. Who are the existing players servicing on those markets currently? What's the growth rate like in those markets? Opportunity size, some flavor there could be helpful.
Good evening, Sneha. Sneha, earlier the US and the Canada market is catered by the Korean and Japanese mills. After the Trump government, they equal the duties. [Foreign language] जो भी U.S. का duty structure था, उन्होंने Dubai को, UAE को, Korea and Japan के equal लाकर खड़ा कर दिया है। तो वहां से all of suddenly U.S. की और Canada की बहुत अच्छी markets खुल गई हैं, and we are getting good relation. Number two, in the Europe market, जो Euro और Dollar में जो फर्क आया है, close to 1.14 के आसपास Euro is going to Dollar हो गया है। तो Dubai market का इसको भी बहुत फर्क मिला है, पलक पड़ा Europe का। Europe में we are already settled, we are dispatching 5,000-6,000 ton material per month. U.S. and Canada में we just started the supplies.
[Foreign language] अभी वहां पर shipment हमारा पहुंच रहा है। We are very bullish कि वहां से जैसे ही हमारे shipment पहुंचेंगे, उसके बाद तो वहां से हमको बहुत अच्छा response मिलेगा क्योंकि our quality is well accepted in the Saudi market, UAE market, and Europe market. तो Dubai में US and Canada में भी हमको problem नहीं आना चाहिए। और वहां पर we have a good capacity already, we have a capacity of 300,000 ton. और 200,000 ton की हमारी दो लाइन और जुलाई, अगस्त, सितंबर तक चालू हो जाएंगी। तो 500,000 ton का हमारा पुराना plant हो जाएगा। तो वहां से हमको अच्छा spread मिलने का उम्मीद है, जो position create हुई है।
Understood, sir. Thanks a lot, sir. All the very best.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Akshay from AK Investment. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good evening, sir. Congratulations on the strong set of numbers. My first question is based on our capacity extension. In the initial remarks, you have said that we are by 2030, our plan is to do 10 million tons, and we will come up with different segments like SS5 and all these things. There are already other players in tech segments. What is the rationale by coming in tech segment, and would our margins be compromised because of that?
No, which segment? Can you please repeat? For what segment are you talking about?
Stainless steel pipes and other segments. Yes, sir.
No, I mean, you'll have to repeat the question.
Like Sir said that we will come up with 250,000 tons of four different things, SS5s and other things which you have mentioned. If there are, yes, if there are other players in these segments, what is the rationale in that by doing the extension in that segment?
Okay. That is our entry into super specialty tubes, right? We are going to come up with very, very small investments, right? 250,000 ton into four different categories. Okay. Putting up and investing a small amount of INR 3,400 crore and testing the market, right, into a new product segment as a company, we decided to do that, right? Our right to win will be, of course, I mean, not immediate because we will start with small investment, right? We will ensure that there is no strain on the balance sheet. The initial Capex amounts are very, very minimal. We get into the space, we make our mark, right? Then we scale up the business if we are able to have right to win.
Initial right to win for the industry is that in these super specialty tubes, we are not going to do run-of-the-mill products like plain API or plain stainless pipe kind of products. This will be specialty products where you will have where the competition is very, very less, or there will be only a limited number of players existing in the country, and it will be more of import substitution. So we'll be very prudent in identifying these spaces and deploying the capital.
Okay. Understood, sir. Sir, my second question is based on our competitive scenario in the steel tube industry. Obviously, we are the market leader in that industry. I want to understand what is the entry barrier in our industry? There are many big giants like Tata Steel and JSW. I have seen the steel tubes of Tata Steel as well as other players as well. Are there any threats if they expand their capacities and they grab some market share in that segment?
See, I guess, I mean, I would leave it to you to analyze, okay, what are the entry barriers here in our industry? Good evening. Boss, we can't comment on this subject because it's a lot of matter. They are also supplied to us for the raw metal. I can only say that Tata Steel is a very well organized company. They never throw the metal in the market in the low margin. [Foreign language] जब कोई क्लियर लो मार्जिन पर माल नहीं थ्रो करता है, तो फिर there is no problem at all. And उनका अपना product range है, हमारा अपना अलग product range है, तो उसमें ज्यादा we don't want to discuss. Thank you.
Okay. Not an issue, sir. Not an issue. My last question is blended EBITDA. What is our target for blended EBITDA in FY 2026?
INR 5,000 a ton.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Thanks for answering the question.
Thank you. Participants, please restrict yourselves to one question. If you have any further questions, you all may rejoin the queue. The next question comes from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. Just on the positioning of APL Apollo, what were the branding expenses that we incurred this year, and what are we planning to incur over the next couple of years?
Advertisement spending we did for the full year was around INR 31 crore. This year it could be mild growth, not much.
Okay. We'll get similar levels. Okay. And also on the.
Sorry to interrupt, Pallav. That was your question. I would request you to rejoin the queue if you have any more. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Vikas from Phillip Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations on a very good set of numbers. Sir, I just wanted to understand since our cash burn is much lower than the cash generation, what are our plans with the cash? If any, if you could throw some light on if promoters are willing to increase the stakes since it has been very low.
Pallav, this is one good problem to solve, right? In general, see, I mean, as part of our capital deployment strategy, if we earn $100 EBITDA, our operating cash flow is also $100, right? We have created four buckets to utilize this cash. One bucket will go for tax payments, one bucket will go for dividends, one bucket will go for capex because we are a growth-oriented company. One bucket will see if cash piles up on the books, and then we'll see how to reward shareholders. I think over the next two, three years, we will have also these liabilities, which are current liabilities. We should have enough fixed deposits, enough surplus cash on the books to match these current liabilities. Then we'll see what to do with the surplus cash.
Noted. On the promoter space, any further insight?
No, nothing as of now.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Garvi Singh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Akshay, thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on great performance. Sir, my question was that could you please elaborate on your statement that MD has surrendered salary and a bit more on what is leading to commanding 5% higher margin even in the general products?
See, I mean, like Sanjay ji said that, I mean, his friend has always been working on the cost, right? I mean, during one of our discussion leadership, we were sitting, and we were having intense discussion on how to cut down costs, right? Employee cost is something which is coming a bit high because we have expanded our capacities ahead of time. Right now, the employee cost per ton, which is around INR 1,000. Our own target is to bring it down to INR 600 per ton. Sanjay ji just took the lead, and he wanted to set by an example. He said, "Okay, let me surrender my salary, all my commissions for FY 2025 and FY 2026," right?
I encourage everyone to come out with innovative ideas and thoughts, right, how we can reduce the cost per ton, right, and bring down every cost, not only employee, but work on every front. That is what he kind of decided to surrender his salary for FY 2025 and FY 2026. On the second question on the premium on our general products, yes. I mean, again, this is the strength of brand APL Apollo, which has been built, which has been built over a number of years. The first realization we did in 2020 when we moved to cash and carry. The second realization is in 2025 when we increased our prices for general products by 5% versus our competitor, and we are able to sustain that.
We are confident that we should be able to sustain this because of our ever-improving servicing to our distributors, ever-expansion of our product portfolio and innovation, and ever-improvement of our distribution network.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Udit Gajiwala from YES SECURITIES. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Dean. Congratulations on a great set of numbers. Just one question. If you can highlight what would be our EBITDA per ton for export markets? So right now, from Dubai, how much is it, and what would be the target that we are aiming from Bhuj when we start those operations?
Hi, good evening. EBITDA per ton for the Dubai export market is close to INR 7,000-INR 8,000 per ton. From India, right now, the margin is not good, maybe INR 2,000, INR 2,500 per ton. There is a reason that the local steel prices are higher than the import price. Now we are importing some quantity for exporting the material. We should think our margin is going to INR 8,000-INR 10,000 per ton. Our import, what we are exporting, our import is arrived in the month of June, July?
July.
July. From the Q2, our margin of export is also from India is going to INR 7,000-8,000 per ton, or maybe INR 8,000-INR 9,000 per ton. Till now, we did not get the cheaper raw material. Our margin is INR 2,000-INR 3,000 per ton.
Got it, sir. Thank you, sir. All the best.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Just one question on the volume guidance. 20% per year is understandable, but how are you seeing the near-term, let's say, first quarter or first half? Are you seeing an uptick in demand already, or you're still looking at second half being the major part of volume for this year?
Right now, we are right on track. April is just slightly a little bit from our target. Every other April is on the downside. We are less than our volume target by 5%-6%. May is going good. I do not think first half, but we can do 18, 19? 17, 18.
17, 18.
17 to 18 lakh ton. In the second half, we cross 2 million ton.
Wonderful. That gives support, thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Shweta Dikshit from Systematix Group. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, good evening. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. My question is primarily, what's your EBITDA per ton guidance on our 20% volume growth each year? Also, to be taking care of the fact that if at all steel prices fall again, what is more likely a sustainable rate of EBITDA per ton? Is there a chance that once again, when we push higher volume, when our focus goes to volume growth, could there be a scenario where we again push discounts to the market to gain a better market share? The question largely revolves around sustainable EBITDA per ton, right?
For FY 2026, guidance is near INR 5,000 a ton. Over the next few years, EBITDA spreads should continue to improve beyond INR 5,000 per ton because of improving sales mix and increasing sales from international markets and getting the operating leverage plus working on the cost reduction factors. We are confident that EBITDA spreads should improve year on year for the next three to four years. As far as steel down cycle is concerned, we do not see that steel could crash again by 25% as it did in the last 15 months. Since we do not foresee such sharp decline, it should not lead to any decline in our EBITDA spreads. 4%-5% increase, decrease does not impact us at all.
Thank you. If I could please have one more question. Out of the total.
Sorry to interrupt, Shweta.
Please go ahead.
Could you please rejoin the queue if you have any more questions? Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Bhavin Pande from Athena Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi. Congratulations on great set of numbers. When we look at heavy product in the Apollo structure segment, EBITDA per ton is around INR 8,700. How do we look at the spend rate on a sustainable basis?
It should be in the same range, INR 8,000-INR 9,000 a ton.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mayank Bhandari from Asian Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to have a look at the console number for earlier. Is it possible for you to share what was the PAC contribution from the APL Apollo building products? That is your Raipur plant. The number for last year was almost INR 26 crore for the PAC.
Let's take it off the call, please. You can reach out to us.
Okay. Just one more thing I wanted to understand from the industry competition perspective. As we are seeing that a lot of players have come in and in capacity, why does there seem to be overcapacity in the industry? Would you agree to that point at this moment?
It could be in the general segment, but not in the value-added products where we have dominant market leadership.
Okay. Okay. Thank you. That's it from me.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Shweta Dikshit from Systematix Group. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking the question again. Could you define what is the total share of exports as of now, including the exports from India and Dubai both? How is it likely to pan out in the next two years? What's the target to take the proportion of exports to?
As of now, we are at 6%, and the target is to take it beyond 10%.
Does that answer your question, Shweta?
Yes.
Okay.
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Deepak Pandey from Sagun Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I just want to share in the slide 11, we have mentioned around new specialty capacity.
I'm sorry to interrupt, Deepak. Your voice is breaking. Could you please come to an area where the network is better?
Yeah. Am I audible now?
Yes. Much better. Thank you.
Sir, in the slide 11, we have mentioned about some new specialty tube capacity. Can you just throw some light on it? What sort of EBITDA per ton are we looking at here? Here, the focus will be to service some industries like oil and gas, refineries, and mechanical tubes, right? Could be some highly specialized waterline pipes.
We are still working on it, right? That is the vision till 2030 that we must have some presence outside structural steel tubes, which could be like 5%-10% of our total capacity by then. Maybe in the next six months, we will have a better answer to this, that what is the actual game plan there. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Krishnam Saraf, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I'm a bit new to this industry. I just have a basic question as to why doesn't anyone hedge their steel exposure in the market?
You'll have to say it again, please.
Yeah. The question is, why don't players hedge their steel inventory exposure in the market?
There is no such product to do this. There is no way. There is no instrument to do this.
Since the participant has dropped off, we'll move on to the next participant. The question comes from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. You highlighted a very strong cost reduction target for employee costs from INR 1,000 to INR 600 over the next few years. Obviously, next year, Mr. Sanjay Gupta not taking salary will help. Let's say you're still looking at a meaningful greenfield capacity expansion coming up over the next two, three years, which will again add to your cost, and which will again depend on how fast those capacities get utilized in terms of cost reduction. Is this INR 600 actually doable over the next couple of years, and what will enable you to drive this over the next couple of years apart from operating leverage? Is there any other lever apart from operating leverage which can help you drive this for some?
[Foreign language] Pardon? Pardon?
Anupam.
Hi. Good evening. [Foreign language] The salary cost, the relation of salary cost from INR 1,000 to INR 600 is not a big task. It is just a task of automation and discipline. [Foreign language] Like हमारा जो plant का cost होता है, salary cost, it's close to INR 400 ton के आसपास रहता है. And बाकी हमारा एसओ का खर्चा होता है, जो almost हम 10 million ton बनाए तो यही रहेगा, 5 million ton बनाए तो यही रहेगा, 4 million ton बनाए तो यही रहेगा. एक तो जैसे-जैसे हमारा volume increase होगा, उससे ये cost कम होगा. कुछ हम plant में automations कर रहे हैं, like small, small, जो मैंने आपको बोला, INR 200-300 crore हमारा capex लगेगा. हम अपनी लाइन 80-90 meter पर चल रही है, तो उसको हम 120-130 meter पर ले जाने की कोशिश कर रहे हैं.
[Foreign language] Bundling में हमारे आदमी लगते हैं, तो bundling को हम automation पर ला रहे हैं. Handling को खत्म करने के लिए हम उस पर काम कर रहे हैं कि जितना automation करके handling खत्म करें. We are targeting the plant cost को, जो INR 400, कुछ हम plant को optimum utilization पर ले जाकर, जो plant की cost INR 400 ton के आसपास है, उसको INR 300 per ton के आसपास किया है. और जो हमारी INR 500 से INR 600 SO की cost है, brand, marketing सबकी cost है, उसको घटाकर INR 300 के आसपास किया है. This is a moderate skill. We have to maintain the discipline. We have to capture those utilization. We have to take to 100% and some automation. All the three mixtures, we can find the result. और जब तक हम सोचेंगे नहीं, target नहीं करेंगे, तो how can we do?
[Foreign language] तो हमारा कोशिश है, maybe INR 600 नहीं होगा, INR 700 आ जाएगा, INR 550 आ जाएगा. कोशिश तो करना बनता है, not possible.
Sure, sir. ठीक है. This is helpful, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Anubhav Gupta to give his closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for dropping by. Look forward to talking to you again during quarter one FY 2026 earnings call. Thank you so much.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt Ltd, that concludes this conference. You may now disconnect your lines.