Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MOL's Capital Market Update call. My name is Márton Teremy, Head of Investor Relations, and as usual, we have a strong lineup for this call as well, where we would like to discuss MOL's strategic directions set until 2030 and beyond. We have Dr. György Bacsa, Executive Vice President, Group Strategic Operations and Corporate Development, who will cover the topics that are relevant on group level, while the business unit level objectives and targets will be presented by their respective heads, namely Mr. Zsombor Marton, Executive Vice President of Upstream, Mr. Péter Ratatics, Executive Vice President of Consumer Services, Mr. Gabriel Szabó, Executive Vice President of Downstream, Mr. Zsolt Pethő, Head of Circular Economy Services, and Mr. Péter Labancz, Senior Vice President of Industrial and Corporate Services.
We use Microsoft Teams as a platform to hold our conference call. The presentation can be downloaded from our website at molgroup.info, and we will be sharing the slides in Teams, too. After the presentation, we will move to a Q&A session, where you will have the chance to ask questions by using the Raise Your Hand function of Teams. Please keep yourself muted throughout the call, except when asking a question. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement on slide number 2. Let me now pass the floor to Mr. Bacsa, who will discuss the evolution of MOL's strategy and group level messages.
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the call. Just as for the introduction or recap, for those who are not so familiar with the past history of MOL's strategy, I would like to give you a short summary. In 2016, we officially announced the MOL 2030 Enter Tomorrow strategy. At that time, I think we were one of the first players in the industry who recognized that we have to start diversification. Diversification in product portfolio, diversification in our supply routes, and so on and so on. There, there will be change, change in technologies. There will be a change in demand structure. So beyond the fossil fuels, we have to invest in new product lines. In 2016, so that's why we announced some of the pillars that we constantly repeated later in the updates as well.
One was the fuel petchem transformation or diversification from fuel to petchem production. The other one was the growth in the consumer services. The other one was steering operation to a more sustainable solution, both in terms of production and in operational efficiency. So also energy efficiency and having more and more low-carbon investments or not fossil-based investments. By 2021, so after the first five years of experience, we issued a strategy update. One of the reasons was, of course, the experience during the COVID and the turn in the global economic growth into a more declining or more volatile environment. The other one was the European Green Deal implications, the Fit for 55, and many normative policies that were imposed in Europe.
So in 2021, we issued a strategy update, more focused on the green transition, on the ESG targets, on the low-carbon investments, and of course, on CO2 and HSE target setting. Now it's 2024. We have, we have practically already half of the way behind us, so it's- I think it's the right time to make first a summary, what we achieved, what we are lagging behind, or what we have to prioritize, and what we have to deprioritize in our strategy. A lot of things has happened also after 2021, since after the post-COVID era is also tainted with high volatility, lots of challenges, changing environments, both in terms of economic environment and regulatory environment, and also the outlooks are not, comparable to the last decade, economic growth-driven and low interest rate-driven, environment.
I think we have to, in our strategy, we continuously have to address both the sustainability aspects, the stability aspects, so having a security of supply, having self-sufficiency. And the third one, which is sometimes it's very ignored by certain policy makers, is the profitability and the competitiveness. I think these are the three aspects that we are weighing in our strategy, priority setting and the target setting for 25 and 2030. If you go to the next page in the presentation, we first start with the summary. Summary of our 2021 strategic update targets and their status or their delivery. As you could see on the line, I just would like to quickly remind you, most of our targets are not just simply delivered on time, but even over-delivered. So we overperformed many of our strategic targets.
We are very proud that in our core traditional businesses, the EBITDA targets or the simplified free cash flow targets are delivered and even overperformed. So if you look at the E&P, we are very proud that we managed to decline. Managed to decline in our core traditional assets, entries, and growth. The CE year-on-year baseline decline is kept at 1% in the last years. The other one, the simplified free cash flow delivery from the target in $1.8 billion at least for 2021 and 2025. Even in 2021 and 2023, we already delivered $3.7 billion. We also managed the active portfolio optimization.
Since not just we acquired new regions or new core regions like the Caspian region, and we managed to put alive some of the stranded assets like Kazakhstan, but we also managed to make the right exits, right time, right valued exits from the North Sea, from the U.K., before all the big waves in the regulatory and, and all the whole North Sea regulation. And also we managed to exit from Angola as well, which was also a long-standing, small-scale asset in our portfolio. In Downstream, I think here I would like to highlight also the good EBITDA delivery of the, of the Downstream. Actually, we retained all our market positions in our core wholesale markets. We extended our presence, mainly in Slovenia and Poland, and we are, of course, in a, in a track of further market expansion.
We managed to deliver $150 million efficiency improvement. Execution is underway, and these are sustainable efficiency improvement in our portfolio. The results of which we will see later on when we talk about the stay in business CapEx and all other efficiency harvest that we are projecting for the coming years. In the future transformation, I will talk a little bit later on. Here, we have a more mixed picture. We have our strategic projects on track. We have many future transformation projects ongoing and close to completion. Most of them will happen this year, as we foresee now. But definitely, here we have some components that I will explain later. In the consumer services, the 2025 target is already met, practically in 2023.
So increase WW in fuel and in non-fuel segment, increase take in the non-fuel segment contribution, 34% from the 24%. So more, 10 percentage points, increase in the total margin scape of the non-fuel segment. I think this is one of the biggest success story of our Fresh Corner program and the related FMCG marketing programs. The network size also increased, and we have new core markets at Poland and Slovenia, added up into a captive market, captive fuel and non-fuel market. Other big steps in our strategy, in the circular economy, we made a major step into the waste management, integrating waste into a portfolio, looking at the circular economy and waste management from the integrated, portfolio perspective.
We have the concession for Hungary, and we have the investment plan, and we have the targets for our waste management to become definitely as a core or fundamental segment of our circular economy. In the sustainability targets, we are proportionally or time-wise in 10% GHG, Scope 1, Scope 2 emission decrease on a like-for-like basis. That's compared to a 30% target by 2030, is proportional and in line with the implementation. Here, we will have an update since based on the regulatory descriptions, but also to have a more transparent picture in the present strategy update, we will issue absolute targets as well, not only like-for-like comparisons. And the other ESG target was the taxonomy-aligned CapEx.
Here I would turn to the second part of the discussion, that where we are behind or where we have to revise our position in details. In the taxonomy-aligned CapEx, we had a goal set in 2021, that we shall reach, that we will be taxonomy-aligned 50% of our CapEx of organic CapEx spending by 2030. In 2022, we were at 4.8%. The 50% goal for 2030 is, I would say, not only doubtful, but not reasonable and doesn't really make sense in our industry. I just would like to highlight two changes that happened. The taxonomy is, up to 2021 or in the course of the last years, are defined stricter than we anticipated before.
Under the current definition, for example, in the naphtha-based petrochemicals, it is impossible to fit into the taxonomy alignment. And definitely, taxonomy alignment is a narrower description than talking about low carbon, talking about green, talking about emission, talking about sustainable fuels, alternative LPGs and so on. So what we previously considered is most likely to be taxonomy in line. Based on the current definition, per se, they are not. So in the end, we are working on a sustainable, competitive, and self-sufficient portfolio mix. So that's why in our current strategy revision, we will rather talk about green and low carbon CapEx, which is in line with the change communication and change target setting of our peer in the industry as well, since we are in the chemical, oil and gas industry strong position.
So we have to align our strategy step to the business and industrial and technology reality. So we are rather issuing smart green targets, smart meaning they're deliverable, implementable, because we have the technology available, we have the business case which is supporting them, and these are also... I would say, in line with the long-term Green Deal targets, and these are also leading to the same carbon neutral goals by 2050. But they are achievable, they are timely deliverable in the next six years horizon, and we can find a business case to support them. And all the CapEx spendings that we will list, that we have highlighted, is something that we have resources, technical, human, and financial resources to deliver those. The other one, and I would like to go back, is the fuel to petchem road.
We set out in 2016, and 2021 we reinforced it. But under current market expectation and market conditions, taking into account the demand for traditional fuel, taking in, which is a healthy demand and stable demand so far, especially in the core markets, and especially east from us, the eastern market. So that's why we think that the further stretching the fuel to petchem road is not economic and not justified. The petchem margins are low, the demand, the recession fears and the demand in the demand decline is not justifying further high scale or big scale petrochemical investments in our core markets. So we are rather focusing on margin and efficiency-driven, smaller scale projects, and we are improving our product portfolio mix to give more value-added, more bigger margin, petrochemical products to our customers.
So we will not give up the petrochemical investment, but we are shifting the focus from the fuel to petchem diversification in terms of output, rather to diversify our petchem portfolio mix and to have a more, more, have a bigger margin for that portfolio. If you go to the key targets and the key messaging and key targets of our new updated strategy. First slide, I would like to just set in a context. Previously, I mentioned that in the current circumstances, the volatility and challenges are higher than ever before, we have to give almost, I would say, equal weight to the three aspects of our strategy.
The sustainability part, so the green transition, the affordability or competitiveness, profitability, as you would like to understand, depending which aspect you are thinking, and the supply security, or the stability, or the self-sufficient part of it. Since we cannot overstretch any element or any aspect at the whole detriment of the others. There is a consumer expectation of stable, affordable supply of feedstocks, which is driving the industry, which is giving energy and so on and so on. There is the increase in geopolitical tension, so there is a need for self-sufficiency, there is need for security of supply routes, and there's a need to secure your markets. There are trading blocks which are going against each other or differing or distancing from each other more and more. So we have to work on improved European competitiveness. This is our core market.
This is our home turf. We have to stay profitable here, and we have to increase our profitability and competitiveness here as well. Also, taking into account the opportunities internationally as well, especially in some of our segments, where international presence is already given or is just at the backdoor of our core markets. The sustainability regulations, we will honor, we will strive for compliance, but as I mentioned, we are implementing a smart green CapEx program, not a pure taxonomy-driven CapEx program, since we believe that the goals can be achieved only in a way that is a supporting business case and technology behind.
So all answers, just, to put it, also in a further context, that I think the strategy is quite clear in terms of that we will continue to invest into the transformation, both in the petchem, where we are focusing on medium-sized, small-sized investments. We also will invest into the sustainable downstream portfolio. So we have green alternatives already available in hydrogen, in recycling, in biogas opportunities. We have opportunities in renewable energy generation and usage as well, and of course, integrating the waste. The waste management is not only a concession for collection. The waste management is a raw material which is valuable for the entire industry in the bigger region as well. So in all region, I think we are striving to integrate these waste collection and these recycling activities also into the supply security.
I think, maintaining the security of supply and maintaining the self-sufficiency is also, I think, we highlighted that how important is in the upcoming years. In the E&P, we have to still focus on the low breakeven and the high cash generation capability of our upstream portfolio. And the hydrocarbon prices are also volatile. We saw historical high and sharp decline in the hydrocarbon prices. That's why I think this volatility and the integrated model within the integrated model has, of course, natural hedging, acumen as well. In terms of fuel strategy, we have to invest into the security of supply for routes. We have to invest in the crude diversification, but we still focus on exploiting the existing fuel market potential. There is a healthy demand in our region, and there is a healthy demand in growing demand east of us as well.
So these opportunities, we shall also capture, we shall also, we shall also adapt to this west to east shift of demand in terms of fuel products. In, in the mobility, our target should be that we satisfy the mobility system. We provide all the alternative fuels in CE. However, we have to take into account the pace, the changing pace of certain alternative, like EV cars and EV infrastructure development. And if there is a delayed ramp up, if there is a slowing down, of course, all investments into this segment should be adjusted as well. So in the, in consumer service, in retail, general fuel and non-fuel retail, growth path is still, given, and that's why we will talk later on, we also promise, that we increase our EBITDA target for the consumer services for the retail.
So the next one is where we are now. We are leading MOL player in the CEE region, and we have a strong presence in the MENA and the CIS, the Caspian, and the Pakistan area in our upstream business. We are building on this strongholds, we are building on this strong regional presence. We want to keep a leading position in Central and Eastern Europe, where we are number 1 and number 3 in most of the countries where we are present. We are looking at extending, taking or capturing the opportunities that are in front of us.
We are also strengthening our upstream regional approach as well, portfolio management, because we believe that hydrocarbon, as a global commodity, is still a very profitable business, and we have to be part of it, because since we have a track record of being successful, if we have a selective and careful core region approach. If you go to the other one. So we have a transition path ahead of us, and we have a robust operation that is the core fundamental of this one. So if you, if you look at the three angles of this transitional strategy, which one is that in the core activities, we still believe in potential growth. Growth in terms of profitability and growth in terms of market presence, consumer reach.
So both in the upstream, international upstream and CEE upstream, we can still generate stable cash for the group. Refining and marketing, still a significant value can be added by new markets, by extending markets, and of course, new product portfolio. Consumer services, the robust network that we're already having, we can still capture further margins, and that's why we are confident to increase our EBITDA targets for consumer services. Gas midstream is now, which had one of the highest last year. Of course, there is a change in directions of transmission, but there is it's a strategic value, it's a strategic asset in our portfolio. In geographical diversification, you can hear some thoughts about us, both in terms of downstream, but also in upstream as well, that our presence in the international upstream is now stabilized.
We have core regions where we can show local strengths, regional strengths as well. Definitely, we managed to step out from the CEE upstream arena to become a certain, in certain regions, core player as well. Of course, in the new segments, the low carbon circle, we already started investing into it, so waste management, I mentioned biogas production. We will talk about the green hydrogen, the solar and other renewable or alternative mixes. In the consumer services, digitalization, the potential in the digitalized retailer one, and with the petrochemicals, to have petrochemicals not only as a diversification of fuel, but also petrochemicals as a good margin business product portfolio mix as well.
So we will have a combination of core fossil business, which we're seeing as a diversified demand and industrial and business atmosphere, will stay with us, and we have to here continue to give the security of supply on a profitable manner, but also to have the new businesses, the low carbon businesses, and some of all we already started, we will keep on growing that. So what it will result? So if you go to the next slide. Of course, we have to reshape the structure of capital expenditures. Here, we only talk about organic CapEx program between $25 and $30. There is a slight increase in average 5 percentage point, in 5 percentage, 5% increase in real terms from 2024 figures on the overall CapEx spending.
There is a decrease in the steady business type of CapEx in the industry. These are mainly a result of the last decade's continuous efficiency improvement, maintenance improvement programs, and energy efficiency programs as well. A lot of the lifetime extension projects we already delivered, so here in the coming six years, we comfortably say that the steady business CapEx became lower compared to the previous average. In terms of strategic CapEx, we, we increase its stake in the strategic CapEx, and within the strategic CapEx, we increase the stake of the green CapEx. I mentioned that the green CapEx is not the taxonomy definition.
Green CapEx can mean everything which is helping the low carbon share of the group, which is helping the renewable powers share within the group, and helping all these sustainable non-fossil elements of our production, of our product portfolio. So these low carbon, these green CapEx, will represent 30%-40% of our CapEx spending, which is which is higher than the previous 10%, but definitely, it's, it's, it's something that we have to lower, which we have to reduce compared to the previous 50% taxonomy-aligned CapEx spending aspiration. This is, as I said, this is a smart green CapEx program, which is deliverable, which, which has a business case, which has the technology, and we have the implementation capability behind.
So we think that this is fairly well-defined route forward until 2030, and which also gives us the possibility that we will meet the 2030 ESG target. So if you go to the next page. Here in the ESG targets, we haven't lowered anything of our targets. On a like-for-like basis, we increased the 25% Scope 1, Scope 2, decrease to 33%. So 30% to 33%, and in absolute figures, compared to 2019, we announced that we will decrease it by 25%. So practically, with the new businesses, with the add-on, the new investment type of businesses, this will still deliver compared to 2019, 25% absolute reduction in the greenhouse gas emission.
We haven't set segment-level emission targets because we would like to maintain the flexibility of allocating resources into where we have the most significant impacts. We focus primarily on Scope 1 and Scope 2, but we are also addressing the Scope 3 emissions, which of course is an inherent part of our value chain because we are basically producing fuel that represents Scope 3 emissions. We expect a decrease between 5%-10% in absolute Scope 3 emission by 2030. It is also demand-driven, so of course it can – it is not only just technology, but also local and regional demand-driven question. We also built in the greenhouse gas emission reduction and the HSE TRIR, both the recordable injury rate, targets into a management incentive scheme.
So it is already part of our compensation, internal compensation, scheme as well. So if you go to the next one. So if I talk about our ESG targets, we reinforce and even strengthening our 2030 ESG targets, not only in the climate and environment, which I discussed before, also in the HSE part. Zero fatality, TRIR by 2030, below 1.1 for the core activities, and also process safety events number reduction. People and inclusion. For women in management, the target now is increased 30% by 2030. Sustainable employee engagement, we shall keep at minimum 75%, and this 50% of our social investment shall be dedicated to the local communities. Integrity and transparency, we also put it at the highest standard. Ethical compliance and training, 100%, so zero tolerance.
And in the procurement policies, we also enforce our GHG emission targets in our supply chain, so our subcontractors and suppliers shall obey and comply with that from us as well. Now, I would like to stop here. I will come back a little bit later to talk about the CapEx in details, but now I hand over to Gabriel Szabó to cover the downstream. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Gyuri. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me continue with the downstream part. I've prepared for today four slides, and we can get to the first one, which you might remember, because I presented this slide within our Shape Tomorrow 2030+ strategy three years ago, back in 2021. We imagine MOL Group, and especially our downstream division in 2050 as a sustainable company, both in chemicals and in mobility. There is no major change in terms of our vision, and we follow our legacy as successful company. MOL Downstream regional primacy will be based on excelling in meeting two basic consumer demands. This is sustainable chemicals, and the second, powering mobility to keep our position number one in the region. We have to look behind these two business areas, and there are four common layers there.
First one is efficiency. So we are very much aware that the cost efficiency and productivity are a competitive advantage, and we should continuously maintain it as a baseline of our operation. Energy efficiency is closely connected with the source of energy as the traditional fossil fuel electricity production is levied by CO2 tax. In this respect, we believe in green renewable energy, and that will be further presented by my colleague, Péter Labancz. But we go further, and we think that the circular economy is the answer for both CO2 emissions and preservation of natural resources. All these three layers are closely connected and have a significant impact on our asset portfolio, which in 2050 will consist of very much recalibrated traditional asset pool and new investments as well.
So all in all, we lead the transition in an intelligent way, as György mentioned it, enhancing efficiency and creating value in a sustainable way via low carbon and circularity. One would comment that our vision 2050 is nice or even correct, but we are here to present how we are going to do the transition itself and how we create the value in midterm as well. So the trick, as you may recognize, is how to get to 2050, what are the steps in transformation journey? And the big question is, what is expected in money terms during the challenging times of energy transition. So let me get to our second slide, and let's focus on the period till 2030. Actually, at the end of 2022, we divided the whole downstream value chain into three business lines.
This is the fuels, the chemicals, and new and sustainable businesses. So, fuels, what we are going to do there, we would like to keep the pattern. We have been successfully performing so far, so we believe that at least till the end of the decade, we lock in the market potential by keeping the market and profitability, or even we increase our exposure to the eastern region. Beside of it, we will enhance our fuel portfolio by new products, new alternative fuels, and also new services, mainly in the car business. The new products I will describe shortly. Seeing the challenges of the chemical industry face today, so as Mr. Bacsa mentioned it, we also recalibrated our investment steps in petchemization.
So in 2021, we said that we would like to transfer the fuel molecules to petchem molecules in few steps. Now, we would like to rather invest very cautiously. We believe in pet- in chemicals, and we have been long enough in this industry to understand that the chemical market is profitable in mid-long term, but we would like to grow via rather mid-sized projects. We are about to accomplish, as mentioned before, the polyol projects. We continue with our MSA projects, metathesis and propylene re-enhancement, and we are having several other mid-size projects in the pipeline. Furthermore, in chemicals, we believe that the circular economy will play a crucial role, as for example, sustainable feed. And with this, let me raise your attention to our new and sustainable businesses.
In this division, we target new value chains as biogas, as hydrogen, but also small and mid-scale projects, which once developed, get to the fuel and chemical division, as for example, recycling projects. This new and sustainable organization is also responsible and supervises the total CO2 emissions and CO2 projects of the group via the so-called CO2 board, which we established two years ago. It is very much important to mention that beside of the sustainability, we do not lose our focus on business performance, which, of course, leads us to profitability and asset efficiency. The transformation will overall support our EBITDA. We aim at keeping the $1.2 billion EBITDA delivery on average. Efficiency will continue to be at the forefront of our thinking.
As mentioned, we are on a good way to achieve $150 million cost efficiency by 2025, mainly coming from our production units. In terms of our production units and refineries, we remain in Hungary and Slovakia. Our refineries will remain in the top quartile in terms of cash margin over the full strategic horizon. Important to note is that the efficient asset is also a sustainable asset. Beyond the more structural sustainability transformation, we are also targeting energy consumption, and in terms of this, we are targeting in the better half of the benchmark group by the end of the decade. Now, let's get to my third slide, please.
Here, let me share with you a few details on the topic, which is very, very exciting, and this is the circularity, how the kind of ecosystem will look like. We think that circularity is a very central concept to how we are driving to improve our efficiency, main energy efficiency, sustainability, and also appeal to our customers. There are many, many projects related to the circular economy in various phases. Let me first highlight that while we are firm in our ambition to rely on circularity-based solutions, it is in many instances to be deciding on case by case whether we will internalize the capacities via investments, and by this, I mean either organic or inorganic, or by buying the products from the third parties, third parties.
This decision, of course, will be made on the economic basis, so we will check the profitability of projects and the opportunities. Within the circularity and within this ecosystem, which you can see, there are three main directions there. So we would like to use waste as an alternative feedstock, and not just the waste feedstock for our refinery, for our petrochemical business, but also we would like to use within the circularity, the energy production from bio and municipal waste. You will learn today that within the waste management, there is roughly 1.5 million tons of waste only in Hungary, and of course, the downstream is keen to utilize part of it.
So in terms of the alternative feedstock for refining, we aim to increase the feedstock consumption via co-processing, via waste oil, I mean, non-cooking recovery, recycled carbon fuel via pyrolysis of municipal and industrial waste. And there is also a hydrogen, which I believe should be mentioned here. So we are completing our lighthouse investment, 10 megawatts projects, electrolyzer in Danube Refinery as we speak. Then we would like to use this alternative feedstock in petrochemicals. So first place, this is a mechanical recycling, where part of the waste will come from our waste management, but we also expect to look for external partners who will be able to supply us with the feedstock. The other part is the chemical recycling, which will be very much needed for olefin production, and feedstock will be covered by different waste streams.
There is also energy production mentioned. We will be relying more on renewables in terms of satisfying our energy need. We plan to recover some of the energy content of waste as a key aspect. That is why waste incineration projects are also on our agenda. And moreover, there is a biogas, which will be utilized more extensively than currently, and this area we acquired, biogas production plant in Hungary in 2023. So my last slide is the translation of all I have talked about to how it will affect our CapEx budget. Overall, what you can see, we expect that around $2.5 billion of CapEx will be spent for transformational purposes and $2.5 billion on sustain, sustain type of CapEx. Overall, the CapEx mix reflects our strategic directions perfectly.
There is a low carbon CapEx, which will be focused in both traditional refining and petchem, with energy efficiency being a key element. There is a petchem CapEx having a larger foothold in our CapEx than in the current revenue mix, showing our commitment to petchemization, and as I mentioned, not done in one, two major steps, but rather via several mid-size CapEx projects. There is several times mentioned supply security investments, which aim to get an independence and to decrease our exposure on Russian crude. Now, let me highlight the process, how we will conduct our investment. Our aim is to decide on our investments based on the return profiles, and we will be very, very selective and decide case by case.
On that note, it's always a choice to have capacities built out in-house, what I mentioned, the organic investment, or we can acquire the, the competence and capacities from the market via inorganic investment or buy the products we need instead. I believe that with this balance, balanced approach, we can ensure the long-term profitability of our downstream business. And with this, let me pass the word to my colleague, Péter Labancz, who will sum up our strategy in renewables. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Gabriel, and let me also welcome everyone on the call. I will try to be short and concise, and describe you how we imagine and how we plan to expand ourself into the renewable electricity base. So first about the demand. As Gabriel also mentioned, we are just about to close the 10-megawatt hydrogen project, green hydrogen project, a lighthouse project in Danube Refinery. As this electrolyzer, also our future planned electrolyzers would be fueled and supplied by renewable energy, renewable electricity. Couple that with a ambitious decarbonization roadmap that is ahead of us, it is fair to say it is carved in stone. It is set fast that MOL Group's green electricity demand is increasing.
Our expectation that this would mean about 2,500 gigawatt hours of demand, what we see in from renewable sources. To put it into a perspective, last year of 2022, MOL Group's electricity demand was about 2,000 gigawatt hours. So it is fair to say that the electricity consumption and the demand of the group would dramatically increase. And majority of those would be set to become from green electricity sources. So then, let's also talk about how we get there and how to do it.
As we see, the demand is located and centered around our flagship countries in the downstream countries of ours, so the three flagship countries. It is also defining a geographical and technological barrier or narrowing down our opportunities in what type of renewable energies and technologies we are able to invest into. Currently, the most valuable is the photovoltaic-based solar power plants. And in that regard, the first step's been already taken. We already installed 44 MW capacities. But then also referring back to the previously stated supply security and the need for diversification, these are also applicable for the renewable space of and renewable strategies of MOL Group.
So what we are seeing and what we are planning in terms of diversification, we are seeing two paths there. Currently, the solar is the most economical and the most viable. So we believe that majority of those supplies are going to come from these sources. Yet we would definitely explore alternative sources beside the photovoltaic, so not all eggs in one basket strategy will apply here. Complementing technologies are seen as a solution there as well. And the other way of or the other angle of diversification would be the classical make or buy solution.
We would continuously monitor what is the most viable to produce it, own or buy it on the market. So surely, we will build and acquire capacities ourselves, but we would carefully monitor whether it is most viable to make or buy. And then closingly, I would also like to highlight that renewable energies would also define a new space around us, which is around the storage. So the storage is to ensure that it is economically viable to use the renewable energy sources. We will also venture into these areas.
We would like to take our fair share in these growing market opportunities. On that note, I would pass the word to Mr. Zsolt Pethő to guide us through the waste management strategy of MOL Group.
Yeah. Thank you very much, Peter. And hello, everybody. Good afternoon. Gabriel already had a great introduction of how waste management is integrated into our operation, but I really hope that after my presentation you will even more deeply understand why we have this huge step and why we try to build a new business unit within MOL Group. And we have been talking about waste management and how to enter waste management and how to get access to waste feedstock in the past years. And the Hungarian concession was really a great opportunity to enter this market and start the operation. So there was a tender regarding municipal waste management in Hungary.
We entered and we won this tender, which means that from last year, first of July, we started managing and coordinating municipal waste management in Hungary. It's a long-term contract that we signed for 35 years. We have our main strategic target is to almost double the recycling rate in Hungary from the existing 35%, reaching 65%. Another very important target set by the European Union is to decrease the landfilling to 10%, which is currently 45%, so almost half of the waste is landfilled. These targets will very much contribute to providing or building circular economy in all Hungary. It's not only within the energy industry, but really helping circular economy in the whole economy.
Apart from these targets, and by the way, I've been working for the company for 25 years, so I know the oil industry, and I started to learn waste management industry. And I really have now the opportunity to state that waste management as an industry in general very much lagging behind developed other industries, such as oil industry, which I was familiar with. So to say the least, there is great room for improvement and development not only in the recycling rate, but also in any type of efficiency, cost efficiency, or really efficiency, or just being simply increasing the income, for example, and increasing all the revenues.
So I think that one of the mission will be to really improve the efficiency, transparency, or even saying that, decreasing illegal activities and make it the whole industry really transparent. We also already started some projects, reaching landfilling. 10% landfilling can only be achieved by building waste to energy plant, which is on our agenda. And our first project was introducing a deposit refund system for the beverage bottles, reaching more than 90% of recycling of those products. And we will be, as the winner of this concession, be responsible for the extended producer responsibility schemes, which, by the way, provides great financial funding for our whole operation. So if we can go to the next slide.
I think that I could talk about this for hours, but I think that the most important point here is that from first of July we had or we took over the operation the households and the companies, the partners we provide service to practically didn't realize any big change. So in general, we can say that the takeover can be considered seamless and successful, which was a great challenge for us and now there is a continuous good operation. So from now on, let's say, from 2024 we will really turn our the intention and attention to being more efficient and starting optimizing the whole industry, decreasing cost, and increasing possible income through increased recycling rates.
But I think despite of the fact that, it's always good to have a efficient operation, our main goal and main motivation in line with the whole strategy, which has been provided to you and, is presented, right now, that our main goal is to create, great amount of waste for feedstock. And I can say that, you can see in the slide that, roughly one third of the municipal solid waste we are managing, can be utilized in the oil industry, and can be a great help for the whole group, as well, to turn to, circular economy. You can see some examples here. I think that plastic, recycling is really, a really important part.
You can see the other examples, but I think that as we will learn, waste management, we, we can come together with our colleagues within the group, to even more ideas how to utilize utilize waste better. And I think that talking about that, we will provide roughly 1.5 billion tons. I think it's quite obvious that that waste stream can be one of the the biggest customers for us. And in general, managing the whole municipal solid waste, I think that we can further, not only to the energy industry, but the whole other industries, we will contribute to the circular economy transformation of the whole country, not only the energy industry.
And, but waste management transformation and reaching almost twice as much recycling cannot be reached by operating the same way as today. So all as obligation already in the concession contract, but also in line with our strategy and our targets, we are very much committed to invest and develop. And you can see this, I would say that this is a minimum number that we will invest minimum $0.9 billion, that some part is improving the existing infrastructure. But I think that I would like to highlight is the sorting facilities. Just say that right now, sorting is like 80% manual, which is even as talking about it, it's a terrible way of sorting waste, that some people are doing it manually.
And in Western Europe and more developed waste management companies, robotic or automatic or semi-automatic sorting is already a very good technology, so we will start applying that, and that's the plan in the next five years. We will build sorting facilities which will do the sorting automatically and with much better quality than today, just as an example. So we will investigate all areas of waste management, and we are ready to develop and invest to make it more efficient. I already talked about Waste-to-Energy plant and Deposit Refund System, which will also be a great part of this investment portfolio. So, I think that I don't know what was the term, maybe Judy used the term green CapEx.
I think that we can consider all these investment and all these CapEx as green CapEx, really contributing to go to circular economy and really to low carbon achievement and reaching our goals. So our mission is really to create value by making waste more utilizable, and not only for MOL Group, but really benefiting the whole society and the industry of Hungary. As a finishing sentence, I would like to pass the word to Péter Ratatics to talk about consumer services. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much, Zsolt, and welcome, everyone. If you would compare the next slide to the previous strategic material, or what came out from the consumer services, then you much probably wouldn't be able to find significant difference. That's intentional, because I believe that the strategy, what we set a few years ago, that's still very rock solid, and that's the direction what we have to follow in order to deliver the additional results and benefits to the group. Well, the strategy still depends and on stay on the three pillars, what we need to be followed in order to be successful. We need to develop further our competitiveness in order to be the regional leader in fuel and convenience retailing.
Here, the most important part is that we build our internal competencies, in-house competencies, towards to the FMCG type of operation. The second pillar is the continuous improvement of the operational efficiency. That's practically based on, based on data analytics. Everything what we can measure, we can improve here. And in the current, or the past, several years, the energy crisis and also the inflationary environment, or the wage pressure, was a significant burden on our operation. The strong standardization or the optimization of the OpEx is extremely important. And the third leg is the diversification of the sales channel, both on digital channels and, new store formats, under the Fresh Corner umbrellas, need to be further pushed, need to be further sophistication, need some level of sophistication.
In case of the mobility and the alternative fuels though, I have to emphasize that we have to accept that some of these aspirations, what we said earlier, are clearly demand driven, and it's not worth to be running in front of the demand. Alternative fuels or the mobility services that we entered quite a few years ago are not demanded at the scale, so we have to be, on one hand, patient, on the other hand, you know, consciously kind of slow down the investment towards to that direction. It means that the rollout of the electric chargers or the extension of the car-sharing services should wait. It wouldn't mean that we will stop it, but we will not push it with full extent.
As a quick summary of the past few years, we have been successful at raising our presence in the retail fuel and non-fuel market with a combination of the organic or the inorganic or the acquisitions. I'm very, very proud of my team, that the innovation, based mostly on novel digital channels, have contributed significantly to larger market shares, better margins, and also the operational efficiency, what we gained. If you turn the page to the more numerical targets, then you can see that, yes, the original 2025 EBITDA and also some other KPIs, practically we have already achieved last year. So it was a high time actually to set a new target, to a bit kind of larger distance. So on the 2030 EBITDA target now, from now on, is $1 billion.
And more importantly, that the free cash flow generation over on this kind of 5-year horizon between 2025 and 2030 would almost reach the $3 billion. So it will not just be our growth engine anymore, the consumer services, but also our cash engine. In order to achieve that, we count with a significant growth on the convenience sales increase or the no-fuel performance, compared to 2021, we believe that we need to triple the performance, what we doubled, in this past period. So there is a significant growth needed.
On the fuel volume sales side, though, I think what we originally, you know, envisioned, that much probably will be a reality, that the second part of the decade, actually, the fuel consumption will not increase further but rather stagnate. And that would be the market environment where we have to succeed. For that, I truly believe that we need very strong customer interaction, customer communication capability, and also to measure and understand what the relevant services, products for the customers would be. So this shall be strongly supported by the increasing active loyalty customer base. We believe that we will be able to reach 10 million active customers by the end of the decade. And that will create, based on the digital platforms that we have, additional business opportunities for us.
On the next slide, on the last slide, just a bit of an overview of the CapEx, what we need for the upcoming period. Our investment mix will focus mostly on the organic investments, and we'll concentrate on the rollout of our non-fuel offers, the Fresh Corner concept, but also the further development of the new types of store formats. We need to better integrate our new acquisitions, and obviously, we need to invest towards the more efficient operation of our real estates, of our service station operation. In total, we expect that the consumer services organic CapEx will be around $1.4 million between 2025 and 2030.
And that will mean that this transformation, what we plan to finish by the end of the decade, what we said earlier, that really will contribute a significant free cash flow to the operation. So thanks very much, and with that, I will hand over the word to Zsombor . Thank you.
Thank you, Péter, and let me welcome everyone. So our upstream strategy, similarly to the group, focuses on the same two directions. Firstly, we strongly contribute to the energy supply security by committing to keep our hydrocarbon production above 90,000 oil equivalent barrel oil equivalent per day for the next 5 years. We aim to do this with a low breakeven and a super cash generation capability. We will keep our focus on production cost, aim to keep it in the range of $6-$8 per barrel, and at the same time, we commit to deliver a healthy unit simplified free cash flow above $20 per barrel oil equivalent. So all these grant us an optimal magnitude of natural hedge to the group's operations.
Of course, needless to say, to be able to fulfill that commitment, we will go even more beyond our CEE home turf, and we aim to further diversify and high-grade our international asset portfolio as well. Secondly, upstream will continue to fund and be the engine of the green transformation, should it be our own one or the groups. We will leverage our subsurface expertise in geothermal, lithium, CCS, as we consider these projects as natural value chain extension of our current competence, which encompass innovative technologies to drive this transformation. So talking about the three pillars, as you know, most upstream portfolio is quite diverse already, with a solid base of assets in our core CEE region, complemented with international assets in Asia and Africa.
We are generally comfortable with this current setup, which is well diversified, and still has a strong cash flow generation potential for the group. However, our portfolio is now set to become even more diverse, with the addition of low-carbon initiatives, which I will talk about a little later. With regards to our traditional upstream assets in the CEE region, we will continue to keep in mind the supply security concerns in the region of MOL and, maximize value from the assets here. We have a plan to identify several more opportunities to exploit synergies in terms of debottlenecking infrastructure, simplification, energy efficiency, and operating costs in general. We see value further in capitalizing on the group being present in neighboring countries and explore further opportunities in cross-border initiatives, specifically between INA and MOL.
With regards to our international assets, we are rarely operating an asset currently alone, and we plan to keep it in that way in the future as well, when we will talk about our portfolio going forward. We aim to be a highly professional and trusted partner in the assets and in the countries we are currently present, and we believe that this can not only contribute to simply value generation for these assets, but also can open doors for us for further growth. So we will still continue to nurture strategic partnerships with local champions and oil majors, even beyond CEE. For that, we will rely much more on our key expertise in onshore mature field management, low-cost drilling, and production optimization...
So our target for our organic CapEx budget for the six years between 2025 and 2030 is $2 billion, ensuring a healthy flow of cash to the group. Most of this budget will be roughly equally shared between the CEE and the international portfolio, with most investments relating to stabilize and increase production level and entering efficiency projects throughout our portfolio. With regards, especially to international portfolio, the diversification and high grading might also include potential divestment of assets when we see that its risk-to-return profile will not meet our expectations. In addition, we are also adding a new element of low carbon investments to our CapEx mix, and we believe that these first results of some of these investments can materialize already within the current strategic horizon until 2030.
So on my last slide, how we exactly mean low carbon for upstream? First, let me note that these initiatives are so far constrained to our CEE assets, namely Hungary and Croatia. But let's see a bit project by project regarding geothermal. Hungary and Croatia has relatively good geothermal potential, and we have successfully bid for licenses in both countries last year. These projects also carry exploration risk with a certain level of uncertainty. However, if these tests are successful, we currently believe that the geothermal production can start in 2029 latest. We aim also to generate here primarily green electricity with a heat upside, as we believe that this is going to be a non-weather dependent green base load and a sufficient low carbon energy source for MOL.
For the methane regulation, there are several regulations in the EU that, have entered into force lately, and one of this is the methane regulation, also targeting upstream operation. We will comply with these regulations and introduce zero routine flaring, and we will install these necessary leakage and other monitoring sensors at our sites, to comply with the regulation. On the CCS side, we believed, and our approach is to think global and act local, and this is, something that no player can really do alone. We have been quite deeply examining technologies in the past for a number of years.
So far, we have not found the appropriate partners to deploy this technology, but we will still continue to do our study work and seek partnerships, as we still believe carbon capture and storage could become an important pillar for the low carbon in the future. Lastly, with regards to lithium, we have launched the pilot R&D project last year as well, and found that the lithium concentration in the brine at one of our sites in Hungary is high enough to consider extraction. We are currently in the assessment of different extraction technologies, and after the selection of such technology, we will come to the test production on site.
And again, this is still uncertain and requires a lot of testing and still a lot of work to grow into a commercial scale, but we believe that this is part of transformation and we will take the right gradual steps. And if the R&D pilot works, the scale unit is expected to start around 2028. So in summary, MOL E&P aims to contribute to the low carbon goals to the group by delivering on its efficiency targets and committed production. And with that, let me re-invite György Bacsa to discuss group financials and conclude today's session.
Thank you, so, just a quick summary on the financials at the end. CapEx, we talked a lot about the CapEx. I also would like to highlight, this is the organic CapEx for the 25-30, so the six years covered by this program. Total organic CapEx, $11.6 billion. The split of the CapEx is $6.5 billion for stay in business type of system CapEx, $5.1 billion for strategic CapEx, and previously it was several times mentioned that out of this $5.1 billion, roughly $4 billion dollar CapEx we consider as a kind of green or smart green CapEx.
So not to confuse it with taxonomy line, this is what we consider as part of the circular, the renewable, and low carbon strategy, which will lead us to the same goals, but also the European Green Deal is setting for us for the low carbon era. This is an increase compared to previous stakes, previous targets. In the previous updates, we rather talked about $1 billion investment. Now, in this six years, we talk about a diverse portfolio of different investments in this CapEx programs, but the negative of $4 billion. So we do growth and transformation simultaneously. The sustained CapEx, or the stay in business CapEx, in absolute figure, is comparable to the previous time, so the previous six years altogether spending.
But here I have to remind that due to the eco efficiency programs, with a bigger, more robust asset portfolio, we will deliver the same reliability and availability of the assets. This next slide, please. And here I see something that I would like to understand, and underline, and practically make you understand, that all assumptions are based on a conservative set of macro figures. So you can see the assumptions for breakeven. Breakeven as for me, that this CapEx program, so both the sustained CapEx and the strategic CapEx, including funding costs, tax, and other working capital related expenses, and the base dividend, in line with the division property, these are all, and we aim to have it funded on our operator profits.
So, on the full strategy and full sustained CapEx and dividend shall be covered from our operation. So we are not eating up or we are not eating into our financial headroom. And that's why we say that whatever we deliver as a surplus or whatever we have as available, unused financial headroom, these are all available for good inorganic investments, for reducing debt levels or refinancing, debts, and of course, distributing extra dividends to shareholders after exceptionally good years. So I also would like, if you see the figures, I would also would like to draw your attention that all macro, forecasts are not based on these breakeven figures.
These breakeven figures are rather to give you an understanding that even if 2 out of 6 years, that will be the average of Brent gas refinery margin, and integrated petchem margin, this whole CapEx program is financeable and fundable by our own operation. However, I have to make a caveat that here we don't calculate with further significant extraordinary government takes. We would assume, and we need to demand more stability in the government takes and the taxation part, because it can also threaten the delivery of the green complex as well, and the sustainability complex as well. So here, I think, we are getting to the end of the presentation, and I think one of the key topic is the shareholder return that we can propose.
I think what we can always propose, that we continue our dividend policy announced before. Here, we presented a summary on that one. Post-COVID, you can clearly see that MOL was offering a double-digit dividend yield, including the base dividend and the extraordinary dividend. The base dividend increased by 50% last year, so there is a continuously, we would like to keep up the competitiveness of our dividend policy. After extraordinarily good years, we offered special dividend, and the shareholders meeting approved it. It's a full discretion, of course, the shareholders, how they decide.
However, as the board, we are proposing to stay on this competitive edge, to continue with the dividend policy, and of course, keeping up the current practice of having a base dividend, which we plan to keep at value, real value, and of course, offering extraordinary dividend after extraordinary good years. Before the question asked, I also would like to highlight that this call will not be about the actual dividend proposals after last year. So before you start asking me about what will be the dividend after 2023, this is not something that we are ready to answer in this call, since it's not decided yet by the board what will be proposed.
Thank you very much, gentlemen, for the presentation. So, with the formal part of the presentation concluded, please use the raise your hand button on Zoom. Anna, please.
Good day. Thank you very much for this very interesting and insightful presentation. I have several questions, if I may, and, if I may, I will start with the free cash flow, which you show in previous slide. It looked like you lowered the macro assumptions for the breakeven free cash flow from your previous strategy. Does it imply that you are even more confident in your cash flow generation potential? This would be my first question. The second would be on the CapEx side, and you said that you will be focused on return profiles. What is the targeted IRR guidance you have in mind for the new projects?
One more question on the dividend side, not for full year 2023, but you put on slide that you expect some gradual growth for the base dividend. Do you have any rate in mind over the years, or how should we look at it? Thank you very much.
Okay. Hey, thank you for the question. I think one is that, so going to the breakeven assumptions. Yes, I think I wanted to make it clear that these are not all assumptions for what, how we see the next six and a half years ahead of us, as a kind of prevailing market condition. This is rather to show that how resilient is our plant and is our operation, that even under low hydrocarbon prices, since this breakeven assumption for Brent and for TTF gas is rather low or conservative than the real market assumption. And of course, the refinery margin is also far from the prevailing one, and it's also on the low end. And regarding the petchem margin, it takes into account the volatility.
Of course, we are also anticipating rebounding of the petchem margin, but it's still not an excessively high estimation on petchem margin. I think what it shows that is this whole operation is resilient, robust enough, and profitable enough, that even under a conservative breakeven premise, as said, it will be able to fund not only the ordinary sustained CapEx, but also the strategic CapEx, dividend, and the funding cost and taxes. As you said, of course, all, all in all, I said it's rather a kind of making ensuring the investors and ensuring the key stakeholders, as you shared with us, that this CapEx plan on the normal sales processes is deliverable from financial part. Of course, there, there's no hiccups, no big government levies or exit tax is built into this model.
But also, we are not indebting the company and cutting from the inorganic and other opportunities that are ahead of us by delivering this slight increase, I would say, in total CapEx terms program. That's all. So this is regarding the breakeven. The other one is that business case. Yes, business case is needed for all CapEx investment, including the green CapEx as well. Of course, that business case is also regulatory biased or regulatory impacted. So in those business case, if you take into account both the subsidies and of course, the penalties that may occur, and we are also anticipating increasing cost of non-compliance, let's put it that way. So that's why emission reduction and compliance is of course a positive or a kind of value preserving or defense value as well.
I don't, we don't have, IRR for this project that we have achieved. We have, of course, weighted average cost, risk of countries that needs to exceed and should deliver positive NPV in general, but it, changes country by country, or not to say not each country, but particularly country profile-driven, I would have sense. But, we, we expect from these investments also to deliver positive NPV. But also I say that non- since the cost of non-compliance is will increase during the year, throughout the year, it's also taken into account in the, in the valuations and in the business cases. But also, as I mentioned, there are more limitation of technical and implementation resources and capabilities, not, not the willingness or the affordability is the only, question here.
The fourth one, yes, on the dividend, I would say that I cannot give now guidance on the dividend proposals that we are putting up this year. I'm just saying that we are in the strategy. We said that for the next period, we have to keep this, the pattern that we started after the 2016 MOL strategy. We have to have a competitive base dividend, and of course, we are also aware of the high inflation, high interest rate environment, peer groups' dividend policies, but we also need to take into account our performance, all last year's performance, and the big taxation that we also had to deliver last year.
Thank you, Jeremy.
... Yes, good afternoon. I got a couple of questions. Let me start with them. First of all, on crude diversity, you mentioned in the presentation that you work on this. Where do you see yourself by 2030 to receive crude oil? Do you expect it to come from the sea, or do you expect it to come from Russia? That would be my first question. The second question is, am I correct with this understanding that this strategy includes only organic developments, it doesn't include any M&A? And do you expect or do you see any areas where you want to expand via acquisitions? That will be my second question. And the third question, you mentioned you want to build an incineration plant somewhere.
Do you have already a place where you want to do it? Can you tell us a little bit more on this? And finally, on your indebtedness, what kind of net gearing do you see in the future? Do you want to keep the current low gearing, or do you want to increase the indebtedness? Thank you.
Hello, Tamás. Gabriel Szabó speaking, so thanks for your points. I will try to answer the first one. So in terms of the crude diversity, we believe we can conclude the projects within the crude diversity in 2026. So once everything goes smooth, I believe from 2027 on, we will be able to process alternative crudes besides the current Urals. So what will be in 2030? It will be a set of factors, I believe, which will influence our decision. Of course, there will be political, technological, and economic factors taken into consideration. What kind of crude is supplied to our refineries? Thanks, and I believe my colleagues will answer the second and third question. Thank you.
Yes. Second is that whether what is with the M&A, or the inorganic? Yet the strategy itself, as I mentioned, does not set inorganic targets or, and does not include inorganic standards. It's only about the organic, but including also the transformation and the growth, strategic complex need of the organic project that we can make on our asset base and our operational base existing right now. Inorganic targets, of course, because they are third-party dependent as well, we are continuously aiming for inorganic growth as well. The headroom is there. The ability to grow inorganically in all segments, and core business, new businesses are available for us.
So definitely, the directions where we would like to generate cash and increase our low carbon and circular cost, but also to increase for traditional cash generating businesses, there we are continuously looking for, you know, targets. We also mentioned some directions where there is a potential for further growth and further EBITDA growth. And I think, of course, that's why we are mentioned that the surplus that we may deliver on top of the breakeven setup, and of course, the headroom that we have for in the group. This is all can be considered as a kind of room or, you know, can be models for projects as well. So this is what I wanted to mention.
Here, we also would like to mention we did the, the fourth one, that we didn't change, but we didn't issue any kind of indebtedness strategic target. But we are also not revising our current net debt to EBITDA, neither the guidance nor the so-called comfort zone guidance. So currently, we have a guidance that we stay under 1, under 2 EBITDA, and we have a control comfort zone under 2. Of course, with this organic strategy, there's nothing that would require us to change it. Of course, when we are talking about the future potential inorganic steps, we still aim to have this comfort zone, but that can change the actual guidance if it happens, but there is nothing planned that I could that we should build in immediately.
Yeah, and regarding the incinerator, we are still evaluating different locations. There is no decision yet. But I think there will be great synergy within the group. So I think that the some of all group sites will be the location at the end of the day.
Okay, thanks very much. Just for me to understand this correctly, so you say that the 90,000 barrels per day plus production target can be done only by the current portfolio. So you don't, you don't need any EMP acquisitions to, to reach this target. Do I understand this correctly?
The 90,000... So keeping for five years, the 90,000 barrel production assumes further international acquisitions, but in the CapEx, you only see the organic. We don't have a dedicated target, neither a budget for that. We are very selective and focused for those barrels going forward, but the current portfolio will not be able to give that 90,000.
You need to buy something for to reach that target. Okay, that's clear then.
Yes.
Thank you very much.
Yes.
Thank you. Oleg, please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation. Oleg Galbur from Raiffeisen Bank International here. I have several questions. The first two are actually a bit longer, so please stay with me. Could you please, speaking about the financial framework, could you please disclose the contribution of core business segments to the estimated Clean CCS EBITDA of almost $17 billion for the period of 2025-2030? Because you have disclosed 2025 EBITDA target only for consumer services, and I would wonder if you could also provide some visibility on the expected EBITDA in other core segments, such as downstream and upstream, which together could consume more than 60% of your cumulative CapEx.
The reason I'm asking is that, if you do a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the information you have provided so far in terms of EBITDA contribution, I would get to some $18 billion of EBITDA without including waste management and renewables. And I don't think that you have not assumed any contribution coming from these two new business areas as well. So that would be my first question. Secondly, in consumer services, you target a 40% volume increase by 2025, and 43% by 2030. I assume this increase is mainly driven by the retail network expansion. But could you also tell us what level of like for like growth do you expect by 2025 and by 2030? And the last two questions are rather short.
So first of all, if there is a sensitivity analysis to key macro drivers that you could disclose, and here I refer to oil price, gas price, maybe refining margins and exchange rates, then could you also disclose the macro assumptions used for your 2025, 2030 financial framework? And lastly, you are talking about mid-sized chemical projects going forward. Could you give us an idea what does it mean in terms of CapEx and development time for mid-sized projects and chemicals? Thank you very much.
Okay. Some of the questions are going back to the same that I explicitly mentioned that we are not ready to give out the full set of macro assumptions by which we are all working in our business valuation. So that's why I think that if you ask me further about the macro assumption for the coming six years, I would rather give you qualitative answers. So I mean, we think that pre-crisis interest rates will not come back, so higher rate of return or higher weighted average cost of capital shall be used on a model.
Second, we still believe that the higher energy prices are staying with us, so that's why energy consumption be the key cost driver, and of course, it will affect the margin as well. Third one, we think that the demand decline is a little bit shifted in terms of pace and time, but it's still coming down the road. And I think that also there is a difference between the global demand, the Western European demand pattern, the Eastern European demand pattern for the coming years. So that's why I think we gave you that in the strategy, we gave you in certain segments EBITDA targets.
Like, you could have read that we gave you a target for retail, what they will achieve, with what they target to achieve 25, and what they target to achieve by 2030. This is one part of the EBITDA target. We gave you a minimum EBITDA, average EBITDA target, or the EBITDA target that downstream is ready to contribute to the operation. We gave you numeric targets or volumetric targets for upstream, and also the past delivery of upstream, which is very much hydrocarbon price, global hydrocarbon price-related. And so if you can model it, taking into account the current production, goal target is to definitely keep up the current production level and make the reserve replacement in the coming six years to keep it up. In the certain hydrocarbon price environment, how much EBITDA it can generate.
For the waste, we promised in our previous quarterly call, that this year we start reporting the waste, and we will give out guidances later on down the road. Of course, you can see last year, figures we already started reporting. In terms of the waste, we have a CapEx program deliver, and we are also aiming to have it positive in terms of both in terms of NPV and EBITDA contributor. But of course, it shall not be calculated in the magnitude of the big businesses, especially in the first period of our or during this investment period of our circular businesses. So all in all, I would say that the $17 billion EBITDA for 2025, 2030, is not. It's. I would say, this is the breakeven scenario.
So it's with $40, EUR 15 per barrel, and EUR 15 megawatt TTF, $3 refinery margin, EUR 300 per ton PET EBITDA. I think this is for modeling, that all operation, $2.8 billion EBITDA average per annum, will deliver even at the breakeven macro scenario. And anything above that is creating the surplus possibility, which I mentioned, that could be for further organic, inorganic, further reduction of indebtedness or an extra shareholder return. I think this is the how you should understand our assumptions. That with this portfolio, with this strategy, even in the very, in our understanding, the very conservative assumptions, an average close to $3 billion EBITDA is the performance of 2.8, in the 6-year average. This is what we model to you.
In certain segments, we give you all the detailed EBITDA target. In the other ones, we give you minimum contribution, and the others, you can model it based on the volumetric one. Give us the possibility that in the waste, we are updating guidances rather later down the road than giving upfront the EBITDA guidance on longer run for that one. Mm-hmm. But regarding the mid-size chemical plants, I ask Gabriel, he is ready to answer.
Yes. Thank you very much. So as you are very much aware now, currently, we have several chemical projects already in the pipeline, so under implementation. I would mention the big-sized project, polyol, and in terms of the mid-size, so there is a metathesis, roughly $200 million CapEx investment. Then we have the maleic anhydride, so roughly $100 million investments. In terms of the further projects into the in the pipeline, I would mention the mechanical recycling, I would mention the chemical recycling. So it means pyrolysis, base chemicals, and also a lifetime extension of our chemical facilities. And I believe there was also a question about macro and sensitivity.
Yes. Any question about consumer services?
Yes. Would you guys let me start? Sensitivity is low, like I'm Márton. We always include that analysis in our investor presentation, so I want to discuss that with you after this call.
Okay, thank you. And on the consumer service, please.
I can answer the consumer services. So on the slide 28, if you can recall those numbers, and then all these percentages were presented compared to 2021. So even the original goals, this in case of the fuel volume increase, the 42%, that was compared to 2021, and these numbers are also includes the recent acquisition. And compared to the original goals, actually, the revised goal is now 40% till 2025. And also, the 2030 goals, this 43% that you should consider versus 2021. So it means with a different kind of angle or with a different translation, that during the upcoming, practically 6-7 years, we do expect that the regional fuel market would rather stagnate or just slightly increase over these horizons.
Practically three percentage points, what we believe that it will increase.
Understood. Thank you very much.
If you need the number without the acquisition, then I think I come back to you later, but that's roughly a strong double digit, a bit above than 10%, so practically around 15%, if I recall well, without the inorganic.
All clear. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Jonathan, then please go ahead. Jonathan?
Can you hear me?
Yes, I can hear you now.
Yep. Can you hear me?
Yes, please go ahead.
Yes, we hear you.
Right. Okay. Most of my questions were answered, but I was wondering, there's talk of, for example, investing in EV chargers, and you didn't give any, like, targets on the penetration you want, how many you want, by when. Is such a target not available? Another target I thought I might see would be the volume of recycled plastics that you'd be producing by the end of the period. Obviously, it's a big part of the waste business and also what you're doing in petrochemicals in general. So could you give numbers on either of those or some indications?
Thank you. Péter, Ratatics speaking, let me, let me answer the EV charger question. So yeah, you're right, that we, we don't disclose, and we don't plan, at the moment with a very precise or actual number of the EV chargers that we plan to deploy. And the only reason is that, if I would say that currently we are operating 250 locations, 250 chargers. If I would say that,
Uh-
Sorry?
Okay, carry on, sorry. Mm-hmm.
So if I would say that 500, this number will be 500 or 600 or 1,000, then I should also classify that what kind of EV chargers we would deploy. Will it be 50 DC, 50 DC, 150 DC, 350 DC? And that's actually the biggest kind of concern at the moment, that we don't know, that what would be the market demand, and also what would be the technological solution towards the EV cars in the close future. And that's why we are on the strategy at the moment, that let's be cautious with the speed of the EV charger deployments, because we believe that in the upcoming 1-2 years the automakers and also the EV charger producers will stabilize actually the technology, what will prevail in the future.
But we don't want to run ahead, or be faster than the market itself with these deployments. So in the upcoming two years, you can't expect from a significant CapEx spending towards to the EV charger deployments. But beyond that, I think, after 25, but closer to the end of the decade, we will speed up those, but just parallel with the development of the market demand. And that's why we are a bit blurry around the number of the EV chargers at the moment.
Okay, thanks.
Yes, if I may answer your part of the question related to the recycled volumes. So, taking into consideration the legislation framework, and our expectation in terms of this, and also taking into account our targets, I would say that 150 KT could be used for kind of baseline for 2030.
Thank you very much. That's all from me.
Thank you. How are you? Please go ahead.
Verifying question. I think you mentioned just recently that you expect only 3% fuel demand growth over the planned period. Am I correct? I mean, does it mean that it's less than 1% per year? Why are you so conservative, and what kind of demand growth are you seeing this year so far? I think that's my first question. And secondly, just talking about waste management. So it seems like an interesting story, and you've talked a lot, a lot about this, this area, but do you have any financial aspirations, like what kind of EBITDA contribution do you expect from, from those projects in the next few years? Thank you.
As far as the volume prediction concern, I would say that in the upcoming few years, the growth will be higher than 1% on average per year. However, at the second part of the next five years to the next seven years, so closer to the end of the decade, 2028, 2029, 2030, the decline will start, and that will overcompensate the first couple of year higher growth. So on average, on this upcoming six, seven years, I think you're right, that roughly 1% CAGR. But the dynamics is a bit different in the first couple of years than the last couple of years.
Thank you. And can you tell us what kind of demand growth are you seeing this year so far?
I think it's around 1.8 or close to 2.
Thank you.
Regarding waste management, I think it's too early to tell, so I wouldn't be comfortable to say a very long-term target with any confidence or feeling it, it's really realistic. We will start publishing the data or really reporting the data to you. I think that we will monitor it together.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you. How much better you have follow-up questions? Please wait.
Well, actually, all my questions have been answered. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. As I can see, there are no more questions right now. You can, of course, contact Investor Relations anytime if you have any. Thank you for everyone. Bye-bye.