BRD - Groupe Société Générale S.A. (BVB:BRD)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 6, 2023

Maria Rousseva
CEO, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for interest in the presentation of our financial results as of third quarter. Before we start, I just would like to remind that these are nine months unaudited financials. However, they are prepared in accordance with IFRS rules. So I'll go now to the first page, which is slide 4 of our presentation with the executive summary of the highlights of our financial performance. In the first nine months of the year, we had the growth of our lending portfolio by 10%, which actually has been in all segments. But mostly and the biggest growth has been recorded in the corporate area with the focus on SME business.

As in previous periods, the SME has performed as per our roadmap, a strategic roadmap, in a very good manner since the beginning of the year. Regarding individual loans and retail in general, we have also very good performance, especially on the field of consumer lending. We managed to achieve 16% growth on a year-to-year basis for the first nine months. The overall loan production for individuals recorded RON 5.6 billion for the first nine months of 2023. This is on the lending side. Regarding another part of the lending, which we consider very important from a strategic perspective, our sustainable commitment. We have approximately RON 1.6 billion new sustainable financing or sustainability-linked financing in the first nine months of this year.

Regarding deposits, and, my colleagues after will detail on the impact, we have a growth of 10% year-on-year as of September across the business lines, both retail and corporate. Regarding our another important strategic focus, the digital advancement of the bank and the digital usage, we have a continuous growth of the subscribers of our mobile tool for private individuals, YOU BRD, and we reached 1.33 million users as of September. For the first nine months, we have 17 million transactions performed through this tool. Regarding the NBI, the revenue side, we have remarkable growth, which is mostly driven by what I already mentioned regarding the lending activity.

Both because of the volume effect, but also because of the fact that the interest rates have been quite high, given the environment of high interest which prevails in Romania. Regarding the expenses, they have been under very strict control and, actually before, below the inflation since the beginning of the year on average. Therefore, we reached GOI, which compared to previous year for the first nine months, is growing by 14% year-on-year. Regarding asset quality, we have historical low level of NPL, only at 2.1% as of September.

Which is influenced by both the write-off of certain bad loans, but also because of the growth of our overall portfolio, and the fact that we have certain integration of provisions from previous periods with already built provisions. Therefore, for the first nine months, we are having RON 35 million compared to minus RON 37 million in 2022. By this, this line is actually contributor to the financial results of the first nine months. And finally, all what I mentioned, commercial and financial performance, result in increasing net result by 21% as of the September figures. The total amount is RON 1.23 billion, and this results in return on equity of 21% as of September 2023.

Now, I can give the floor for the macro. No, before that, I wanted to make one more remark related to our ESG commitment. If you remember, last year we had, now I'm on slide 5. We launched the Climate Change Summit, most important event of this type in our region. And this year, October twentieth, we had the second edition of the Climate Change Summit. Few statistics: We had more than 1 million people across the world, which managed to watch this event online. And we had many speakers locally, with physical presence of over 1,700 people there during the two days of the event. Now, I will have the floor to my colleague, Claudiu Cercel , to talk about the macro.

Claudiu Cercel
Board of Director, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. As customary, I will briefly touch some features of the macro and banking landscape. First on macro. Our good results where there, despite an environment characterized by a slowing down in the economy, it was manifest in the first quarter. It continued alongside the same trajectory in the second quarter. For the third and fourth quarter, there are some positive signs, but still, for the whole year, we expect the GDP growth which is inferior to the good performance of 2022. Most probably in the region of 2%. IMF expectations are slightly above 2% for this year, and higher for 2024 at 2.75%.

Whereas, for the Romanian government, their expectation for this year is still, among the highest at 2.8%. The economy is decelerating, which is not necessarily, a good point, but the good point with the, deceleration in the economy is that the inflation is going down, too. After having, peaks in double digits, territory last year in, in November, it, started going down. Latest figure is below 9%, September 2023. And for the, year end, the expected, inflation figure is 7.5, which is also what the central bank expects, slightly higher than the previous, expectations of the same, institution.

But even though it's gradually correcting, it's still outside the variation band of the central bank, which is 2.5 ±1 percentage points. Even though the inflation is going down, it's not yet well anchored, and that's the reason why the central bank refrained as of yet from operating rate cuts. They will probably not cut this year. Expectations for the first cut are from most analysts in the second half next year, even though as Romania enters into an election year, we may probably see some moves even in the second quarter of 2024. At the same time, the banking sector shows significant liquidity surpluses, which are putting some pressures downward on rate.

This is seen in ROBOR evolutions. It's corrected, but gradually it's now around 6.3%. It would go even lower, having not been for the floor set up by the central bank at 6% via its deposit facility. On the banking sector, it continues showing comfortable solvency and liquidity indicators, so not much changes in this quarter. From an asset quality perspective, Romanian banking sector is now classified as a low-risk one on two important metrics, metrics used to describe this NPL ratio below 3% and the coverage ratio above 55%. Maybe one last point on various supporting programs of the economy.

On the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the country enjoyed a second payment of EUR 2.76 billion under recovery and resilience facility. This was made possible by the milestones that had to be checked and were by the country. The government-sponsored IMM Invest continues till 2023 year end. Maybe it's interesting to mention that this government guarantee loans to corporates are now close to 20% of the sector's loan portfolio, which is showing the degree of the support coming from the government for the evolution of loans.

And also some good news on other type of funds that are used in the Romanian economy, supporting various sectors as a deal recently signed by the country with Canada to benefit from a financing of EUR 3 billion for the new projects on nuclear reactors in Cernavodă. And other programs coming from the European Council or European Commission related to various more granular support. And that would be it for this part. I will now hand to my colleague, Madalina Togarescu, for more in-depth commercial and financials.

Mădălina Otilia Teodorescu
Head of Retail Business, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Thank you very much, Claudiu. As it was mentioned in the summary by Maria, the first nine months of the bank in terms of commercial performance were very good. This was basically supported and sustained by a digital transformation that kept the rhythm. Figures are relevant for retail above 1.3 million users in the internet banking, 36% year-on-year growth, 17 million transactions, again, 39% year-on-year growth. While the sales of deposits, both term and savings accounts, actually above 70%. In the corporate business, we actually register as well very good performance of services into the digital environment. About 95% of the transactions have been performed via digital channels for both large corporate and the SMEs.

In terms of LCs, LGs and FX transactions, 60% and above, all the services has been performed via digital channels. POS fleet, extended POS fleet provide a 23% year-on-year growth, reaching 101 million, one, 177 million transactions into the acquiring business. A part of the growth into the digital activity, we as well enhance the digital capabilities, while focusing on efficient flows, optimizing the processes into the online onboarding, with a record of 15 minutes into a normal line onboarding, and a record of 10 minutes into the online lending. Capabilities of voice-over readers for person with visual disabilities, reinforcing our commitment on diversity and push notification extended for the inflow transaction.

All this, we actually developed while basically optimizing the network footprint, reducing the number of branches with 38% year-on-year, 47% since 2016, when the business model conversion and efficiency has been started. As well as expanding the cashless concept. Now we are actually having 24/7 banking points in 172 locations, 20% year-on-year growth. Now, moving into the lending activity, just to mention that the bank actually increased its market share, reaching 10% loan market share after the first nine months, with a very good performance in corporate and the same increase performance in individual. 14% market share in individual, 7.1, both growth 50 and 60 basis points in terms of market share.

Very good performance in new business activity, strong advance in SME financing, leveraging as well on the governmental program. 26% in SME financing growth and 30% increase in IMM Invest. Large corporate portfolio growing by above 16% year-on-year, as well as leasing portfolio 20% year-on-year. In retail lending, I would say, a good momentum despite the market environment. We just seek to grow above the market, with a 5.4% year-on-year growth on the net loan outstanding, that was supported by both individuals and small business. Housing loan production reflecting the weakening of the market, as well as the growing trend of the interest rates.

However, our market share has been increased in mortgage as well, while the performance of unsecured consumer loans registered best momentum, reaching 16% year-on-year growth in the first nine months. Commitment for the sustainable economy, as it was mentioned, we actually reached sustainable financing almost RON 1.6 billion during the first nine months. And this actually commitment has been actually recognized with Green Habitat Mortgage Loan awarded by Association of Promotion of Energy Efficiency in Buildings, as well as Romanian Green Building Council for the Green Mortgage program development. Robust and diversified deposit base. In terms of deposits as well, the bank market share has been increased 60 basis points in the first nine months, reaching 10.6% in market share end of September.

With important growth in both individuals and the corporate companies. Net loan deposit ratio reaching 68.2 till the end of September. More or less stable versus end of September 2022. High liquidity buffer, sorry, diversified, and we actually have a diversified, you know, deposit base. A part of a solid growth in retail and corporate deposits, we basically increase as well into the off-balance sheet product: asset management funds, being actually in the mutual funds, 19.1% market share, reaching RON 3.6 billion in the assets under management, as well as an important participation at the FIDELIS program. 46% market share on the Romanian government bonds issuance for individuals held during July and October.

I will pass actually the floor to my colleague at the end, talking about liquidity position.

Etienne Loulergue
Deputy Chief Executive Officer, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Thank you, Madalina. Good morning to everyone. Indeed, I confirm that we have maintained a very comfortable liquidity position with a granular deposit base composed by almost two-third of retail deposits. Our net loan to deposit ratio at the end of September is slightly above 68%, which is more or less stable compared to September 2022, but growing compared to December 2022 by more than 1.5 points. Our liquidity buffer remained very ample and solid, representing 31% of our total assets, which means 24 billion RON equivalent, composed of three main categories. First, the hold-to-collect and sell portfolio of government bonds, representing approximately 13 billion RON of value, including the negative revaluation which is balanced by FVOCI, minus 1.5 billion, fully included.

Second, the portfolio of hold-to-collect government bonds, representing approximately RON 5 billion, and last, RON 6 billion of cash and cash available and interbank deposits. So again, very comfortable liquidity position. And now I move to page 15 to comment on the profit and loss statement. And I'm very pleased to say that, first starting with the revenues, we have posted the new best quarter in net banking income, reaching a level of RON 969 million, growing by approximately 8% compared to Q3 last year, and also +4% compared to Q2 2023. So, these revenues are definitely supported by a significant volume growth and also still enjoy the elevated level of interest rates.

So the nine-month performance in NBI is above 2.8 billion RON, growing by 11.4%, or almost 300 million RON in the first nine months. The third driver is a net interest income component, growing by +16.5% year-on-year, and mainly driven by the volume effect, representing approximately +10%, as mentioned previously, in the loan portfolio. And on the nine-month basis, still benefiting from the positive interest rate effect, as the ROBOR three months average on nine months 2023 is more than 100 basis points above the same average for last year. However, we have to highlight the fact that this effect of interest rate is progressively fading away.

As we can see in the third quarter, the average over three months, Q3 2023, is already below the average for the Q3 2022. However, again, the volume effect is predominant, and we deliver the growth of net interest income in Q3 by 13% above Q3 last year. We can also comment the fact that in our deposit base, as you know, the term deposit grew significantly during the course of 2022 and 2023. Nowadays, the cost of interest has grown significantly. However, it grew less than the revenue, of course, coming from interest rate. Second driver for the growth of NBI is other income, with an average growth over nine months, close to 7%.

It is explained by the fact that we have very solid activity in trading and sales. Very solid, and also less volatile than it was in 2023 - 2022, sorry. As you can see, the average quarter in 2023 is approximately at RON 86 million per quarter, with a maximum variance of RON 6 million per quarter. While in 2022, the average quarter was around RON 80 million per quarter, with a variance of up to 16 million RON. So you can see that in Q3, we have a base effect, because Q3 2022 was the best quarter in our income last year, while we have the average quarter this year. So we post a decrease in Q3, but on the nine-month basis, we are visibly growing by +7%.

Last comment on the composition of revenues is regarding the net fees and commissions. Net fees and commission are in slight decline after nine months compared to nine months last year, by RON 12 million, or 2%. However, it is continuously improving this year, because you can remember probably that after six months, we were 3% below same period last year, and after three months, we were 4% below last year. So we are closing the gap step by step, and working hard on collecting better fees. The explanation of the decline are still the same. It's the increasing penetration of our packages and our digital solutions, on which we collect less fees from the previous model and the pay-per-service.

We have also a base effect regarding the cash transaction, which were extraordinarily high in 2022, and we are back to a more regular level of activity in 2023. But on the positive side, we must highlight the fact that we were, in Q3 especially, very dynamic in brokerage fees, with +RON 6 million above the standard quarter in this respect, and we are also growing our penetration in insurance activities, growing by few units of million RON this year. This is for the revenue part, and now we can move to the page 16 to comment on the operating expenses. Thanks to our very good discipline on operating expenses, we were able to contain the growth over the first nine months in a high single-digit level at +9%.

And even if we compare the Q3, the growth is even below +6%. It is the growth of OpEx first explained by the staff expenses, of course, where we have a growth of almost +9% on a nine-month basis, for which an important part of the explanation is coming from a base effect. Because you remember that last year we negotiated a new overall labor agreement with new benefits for our staff. And we have the full impact of the new labor agreement on nine months, 2023, while for 2022, at the end of September, we had only three months of impact.

So if we, if we compare overall, the growth is 9%, but if we compare on comparable basis, Q3, the growth is only plus 5% on the staff expenses. We still benefit from a decrease of the total number of FTEs. However, we must mention that it is at, now at a slower pace than it used to be, so the financial impact is less significant than it was before. The second important component in other expenses is mostly our effort to, to transform the bank and our commitment to deliver our IT roadmap. The growth of other expenses over nine months is slightly above 10%, representing RON 58 million, and this RON 58 million is mostly driven by IT efforts.

Approximately half of the effort is coming from IT, and also external services, where we have an effort to change the bank with the support of external providers supporting the transformation of IT especially. And also, we must mention some increase in the run the bank part, especially on cash transportation, where we have still high volumes, but also a price effect coming from the minimum salary increase and the inflation pressures. For the rest of the run the bank cost, meaning real estate, logistics, communication, et cetera, we contain them well below inflation with a single-digit growth over nine months.

The combination of strongly increasing revenues and well-contained OpEx enables to deliver the best quarterly gross operating income ever, above RON 500 million, reaching RON 523 million in Q3, growing by almost 10% compared to Q3 last year, and the growth of the gross operating income over nine months is close to 14%. Delivering the positive effect enabled also to improve the cost-to-income ratio. In Q3, we have decreased it to a level of 46%, minus one point compared to same period last year. Same variance on a nine-month basis, minus one point, reaching 49% at the end of September. Now I give the microphone to Philippe Thibaud to comment on asset quality and cost of risk.

Philippe Thibaud
Deputy CEO-Risk, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Thank you, Etienne. Good morning, everyone. It may seem paradoxical to release a bit of provisions in Q3, and you saw that globally until now, we have had quite a favorable position in terms of cost of risk. Comes from, or it reflects the fact that we have a very good performance in recoveries. We still see no new defaults, and we also see that in terms of days past due and all rates, clients are behaving very, very well. So this results in again a very low NPL. So it's again a quarter where we have a historical low, 2.1%. And we are very comfortable with our coverage rate, which is at 76%, way higher than the Romanian peers and even the European peers.

So still very strong book, and no major or nothing really significant to report in terms of cost of risk or movements in the portfolio. So very stable cost of risk. So now back to Etienne?

Etienne Loulergue
Deputy Chief Executive Officer, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Yes. Thank you, Philippe. Next page, page 18, to comment on the capital position. So I'm glad to tell you that we have a very solid capital position, and we are in capacity to propose a dividend distribution. So the, let's start with the capital adequacy situation. At the end of September, including the proposal of dividend distribution, we would reach a level of capital adequacy at 19.4%, so well above our overall capital requirement, including the new countercyclical buffer increase, which occurred in October. The main components of the waterfall, if we compare to September 2022, are the following. A quick recap. Of course, we integrated our profit, H2 profit of 2022, creating approximately 200 and this, 200 basis point additional.

However, we had to suffer the end of the quick fix relief on OCI, generating a negative impact of more than 300 basis points. Then, during the first nine months of 2023, the pressure on long-term yields decreased, and the OCI impact improved, and we were able to recover partly the negative impact of OCI, and we added more than 260 basis points in our ratio. Last event of the first nine months is, of course, the growth of our portfolio of loans, generating a growth in RWA and a decrease of approximately 180 basis points of the ratio. And the last element is a proposal of dividend distribution with an impact of approximately minus 200 basis points in the ratio.

However, ratio remaining well above the requirement and still incorporating a significant negative impact of negative OCI above -300 basis points in this ratio. So our proposal regarding the dividend distribution is as follow. We propose to distribute the dividend coming from the profit of 2022 at a level of 50% payout, representing RON 643 million, and it will be subject to an approval by a general shareholder meeting to be scheduled in December 2023. This calibration of the payout ratio is below our historical level of payout. However, we keep in mind our intention to convert back to our regular ratio of payout.

But we, we believe that in the context where we are called to prudence and cautious attitude regarding dividend, this is a well-balanced proposal at 50%. Moreover, we have to comment also that we are working on incorporating part of the H1 profit before the end of this year to reinforce the ratio at the December closing. Calibration in progress. So that's it for the capital position and the dividend proposal, and now I give back the floor to Maria Rousseva for the conclusions.

Maria Rousseva
CEO, BRD-Groupe Société Générale

Yes, and finally, to confirm once again that both commercially and financially, we had very good performance in the first nine months. On the commercial side, we had both in lending and in deposits plus 10% year-on-year. Both corporate and retail segments performed in a very strong way. Our deposit base is very diversified and quite granular, granular. Therefore, we feel very comfortable liquidity. Regarding the digital roadmap, we are progressing, and as I mentioned already, our new BRD Mobile is having above 1.3 million users as of end of September. On the financial side, following this very good commercial performance, our revenues grew mostly because of the strong volume growth of the lending activity.

Regarding the cost, we would like to once again point out that we kept them under very strong control and discipline. Regarding the quality of assets, we have historical low NPL ratio and very good coverage ratio. On the profitability, all this resulted with higher than 20%, more than 20% year-on-year net profit and return on equity of 21% in the first nine months. As Etienne mentioned, we are very comfortable regarding the capital and the liquidity, therefore we are capable also to distribute the dividends as just described. So thank you for your attention. Now we are open for questions.

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