Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the OMV Petrom's earnings call. Today's presentation will last around 30 minutes and will be recorded. By now, you should have received the presentation by email. The slides and the speech are also available online on www.omvpetrom.com in the investors' section. These also include the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements. Now, let me hand over to Simona Cruțu, Manager of the Investor Relations and Stakeholder Engagement Department, who will moderate the event.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us. We'll have a presentation followed by a Q&A session. Christina Verchere, Chief Executive Officer, will provide the key highlights about the macroeconomic and regulatory environment, as well as the third-quarter operational performance. Alina Popa, Chief Financial Officer, will give you more details on our financial performance and the brief outlook. Afterwards, they will be available to answer your questions. We recommend you to register for the Q&A session during the presentation by pressing star one one on your telephone keypad. You can also register during the Q&A session itself. I'm now handing over to Christina.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to our conference call that will take you through our performance in the third quarter of 2024. Please let me draw your attention to our legal disclaimer, which you can read in detail on slide two. Let me start by taking a look at the evolution of commodity prices in the third quarter of 2024. Brent price had a downward trend, starting the quarter at around $87 per barrel and closing around $73 per barrel. The evolution was impacted by concerns related to the conflict in the Middle East and the bearish sentiment from revised demand expectations. Brent quotation averaged $80 per barrel for the third quarter, a 7% decrease year-on-year. OMV Petrom indicator refining margins reached $7.10 per barrel in the third quarter, 58% lower year-on-year, mainly due to weaker gasoline and middle-distillate crack spread.
European spot gas prices increased during the quarter despite high gas storage levels, driven by a combination of factors, including concerns about Russian pipeline supplies across Ukraine and reduced supply due to Norwegian maintenance. At an average of EUR 37 per megawatt hour, the CEGH price was up by 8% year-on-year, 15% quarter on quarter. Gas prices on the Romanian centralized market also increased, with their hub prices around EUR 31 per megawatt hour, 17% higher quarter on quarter and flat year-on-year. Baseload electricity prices in Romania increased both year-on-year and quarter on quarter to an average of EUR 127 per megawatt hour. The average CO2 price was 20% down year-on-year to EUR 67 per tonne of CO2, reflecting sluggish industrial demand and, most broadly, flat quarter on quarter.
Looking now at the Romanian macroeconomic environment, the latest available data shows that in the second quarter of 2024, GDP increased by 0.8% year-on-year. In October, the IMF reduced its projected GDP growth for 2024 from 2.8% to 1.9%, and for 2025, Romanian GDP is now forecast to grow by 3.3%, reduced from the previous 3.6%. Though the expectations are softening, Romania remains well above the estimates for the EU average of 1.1% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. The consumer price index for the month of September 2024 versus September 2023 was 4.6%, on a downward trend compared to spikes in January and February of 2024. Looking at the Romanian energy sector in the third quarter of 2024, demand, based on our internal estimates, increased for all our products. The demand for retail fuels slightly increased by around 2% year-on-year.
The effect of higher disposable income and holiday season peak being partly offset by the July fuel excise increase. Commercial demand was up by 3% year-on-year, supported by intense road construction activity and higher jet demand. Gas demand increased by around 4% year-on-year, with higher offtake from industrial consumers as well as from gas to power. Power demand was 2% higher year-on-year, while domestic production significantly decreased by 7% year-on-year, Romania being a net importer of power in the third quarter. Power production from gas and solar sources had a significantly higher year-on-year contribution to the generation mix, while hydro, coal, wind, and nuclear power decreased year-on-year.
Turning to the regulatory framework for our markets, the gas and power sector in Romania remains highly regulated, with more than half of our gas and power sales portfolio subject to some form of regulation or taxation. Ordinance 32, the latest change that came into effect starting April, continues to negatively impact our results, especially on the power side. Our current estimate of this impact on OMV Petrom financials for April to December this year remains high double-digit million EUR. Although we support the steps towards liberalization, these must be in the context of a competitive and predictive fiscal framework. For the interim period until full liberalization, which is expected to take place in April of next year, the level of taxes on power producers remains very high.
On slide six, we present the key highlights for the quarter, where we had robust operational performance in the context of lower oil and gas prices, partly offset by integration benefits. At 1.6 billion RON, our third-quarter clean CCS operating result was 36% lower year-on-year. Our operating cash flow in the third quarter of 2024 declined to the same extent and reached 1.9 billion RON. The clean CCS return on average capital employed was almost 21 percentage points. In exploration production, the result mainly reflects the lower oil and gas prices and higher hydrocarbon sales volumes. The result in refining and marketing reflects lower refining margins, partially compensated by strong performance in our sales channels and our excellent refinery utilization. In gas and power, the result reflects decreased prices and margins, as well as the negative effect of regulatory changes.
Our gas business result was impacted by reduced gas sales volumes in the context of the very high storage obligation and less attractive sales opportunities, while our power business result was affected by regulation in place. During the third quarter, we have further focused on delivering on all three strategic directions. In our strategic pillar, grow regional gas, our Neptun Deep project is progressing as planned. We advance the construction of the platform topsides in Indonesia and started construction work for the steel jacket in Italy, as well as the natural gas metering station in Romania. We remain on schedule for drilling the first well in 2025 and first gas in 2027. We are also making significant progress in our strategic pillar transition to low and zero carbon.
In renewable power, we closed the transaction with Jantzen Renewables for the acquisition of three photovoltaic projects, totaling a capacity of approximately 710 megawatts, all in the ready-to-build stage. We also closed two transactions with Renovatio. One refers to projects with a capacity of approximately one gigawatt to be developed in partnership with Renovatio. The other refers to operational assets with a capacity of 18 megawatts that entered our portfolio. Thus, together with the announced partnership with CE Oltenia and our own photovoltaic project at Ișalnița, we now have 2.8 gigawatts of capacity of projects in our portfolio. This puts us on track to achieve our target of 2.5 gigawatts of renewable power capacity, including partnerships, by 2030.
On electric mobility, after closing acquisition of Renovatio network at the end of May, we are on track to reach around 1,000 fast and ultra-fast charging points by the end of this year, positioning OMV Petrom as the largest player in e-mobility in Romania. On HSSE, the total recordable injury rate for the rolling period October 2023 to September 2024 was 0.28. Moreover, we continued our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas intensity with projects in all three business segments. Based on our preliminary data, the GHG intensity in the first nine months of 2024 decreased year-on-year in all three divisions, reflecting our ongoing initiatives to reduce carbon emissions. On slide seven, I would like to present our operational performance, and I'll start with exploration and production.
Hydrocarbon production in the third quarter decreased by 6% year-on-year, reflecting the planned maintenance activities, which were delivered in line with expectations. The lower production was also due to the natural decline in the main fields, partly offset by good results from work over jobs and new wells. Production cost per barrel of oil equivalent increased year-on-year by 4% to $16.77, mainly due to lower volumes available for sale and higher personnel costs, partly offset by lower costs for energy, materials, and services. In refining and marketing, we had an excellent refining utilization rate of 99%. Total refined product sales volumes increased by 2% year-on-year, with retail sales up 1% year-on-year. In gas and power, total gas sales volumes were 12% lower year-on-year in the context of the very high storage obligation and less attractive sales opportunity.
The Brazi Power Plant generated 1.5 terawatt hours in the third quarter, covering a 12% share in Romania's generation mix. Moving now to slide eight, total CapEx for the first nine months of 2024 was RON 4.8 billion, 41% higher year-on-year. More than 40% of this CapEx was spent for strategic projects, namely Neptun Deep and renewables, underpinning our strategy execution and our planned transformation for a lower carbon future. In exploration and production, in addition to Neptun Deep project, which I covered earlier, we finalized the drilling of 26 new wells and sidetracks and performed more than 400 work over jobs.
In refining and marketing, around RON 0.9 billion of investment, mostly for major refinery projects such as the new aromatic complex, sulfuric acid gas treatment plant, and the new SAF HVO unit, but also to retail for the acquisition of Renovatio's network of charging points and further expansion of our e-mobility business, and in gas and power, the RON 0.9 billion mainly reflects the closing of the renewables transaction. For the full year 2024, we maintain our guidance provided in July above the RON 6.5 billion of organic CapEx, almost 40% higher compared to last year. There will also be CapEx associated with the closing of our M&A transactions for low and zero carbon projects that would bring the total CapEx to around RON 7.5 billion. Please let me now hand over to Alina for more details on the financial results of the third quarter of 2024.
Thank you, Christina.
Good afternoon also from my side. I will continue the presentation with slide 10, starting with some highlights on the income statement and development of the third quarter of 2024. Sales decreased by 11% year-on-year, negatively impacted by the lower prices and sales volumes of natural gas and lower sales volumes of electricity. This was partially offset by the impact of higher prices of electricity. Clean operating result in exploration and production was 23% lower year-on-year, driven by the lower oil and gas prices, lower sales volumes, partly offset by lower E&P gas taxation and depreciation. Clean operating result in refining and marketing dropped 20% year-on-year, mainly due to lower refining margins, partly offset by improved performance of sales channels.
Clean operating result in gas and power decreased considerably year-on-year, mainly due to lower results of the Brazi power plant, impacted by the change in legislation in April 2024 and the drop in power margins from the exceptional high levels of prior year quarter. Okay. Please continue to stand by. Your conference will resume shortly. I will continue the presentation with the clean consolidation line, which was 50 minus 59 million RON in the third quarter of 2024, mainly as a result of a significant gas volume linked to increased Solidarity Contribution. Consequently, the group clean CCS operating result decreased by 36% year-on-year to 1.6 billion RON. For the third quarter of 2024, we recorded inventory holding losses of 98 million RON compared with inventory holding gains of 94 million RON in the third quarter of 2023.
We also recorded net special charges of 12 million RON. For comparison, in the third quarter of 2023, we recorded net special charges of minus 207 million RON, mainly driven by the net temporary effects from the forward contract for power and CO2. The clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders decreased by 33% year-on-year to 1.4 billion RON. Let me go on to slide 11, which shows the major building blocks for the development of the clean CCS operating result. I will start with exploration and production. The market effect deviation of 32 million RON reflects lower oil and gas prices, partly compensated by lower E&P gas taxes. The latter is mainly due to the tax-exempted quantities used in Brazi power plant and the volumes put in storage for which overtaxation is due when the gas is sold.
The operational effect had a negative deviation year-on-year, mainly due to lower hydrocarbon sales volumes, partly compensated by lower depreciation. In downstream, the negative market effect in refining and marketing reflects the lower refining margin. Operational effects were positive year-on-year, reflecting excellent performance in refinery utilization, sales channels, and non-fuel business. In gas and power, we recorded lower results in both gas and power business lines, impacted by market developments and regulatory changes. In the gas business, higher storage costs coupled with lower gas prices overall have lowered our margins. The power business continues to be affected by the changes in legislation introduced starting April. However, we achieved good results from the balancing and ancillary services markets, as well as from transactions outside Romania, yet significantly lower year-on-year.
The 0.5% tax on revenue introduced starting January amounted to around 55 million RON, mostly booked in refining and marketing segment. On slide 12, I would like to continue with the highlights regarding our cash flow statement. In the third quarter of 2024, the cash generated from operating activities before net working capital movements and Solidarity Contribution was 22% lower year-on-year, at 2.4 billion RON. Working capital changes led to a cash outflow of 442 million RON in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 39 million RON in the third quarter of 2023. Main reasons for negative net working capital changes are driven by higher inventories related to gas and petroleum products and increasing excise paid in advance. Consequently, the operating cash flow in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to 1.9 billion RON, compared to 3 billion RON in the previous year.
Our net payments for investing activities amounted to 1.8 billion RON, higher by 10% year-on-year. This mainly reflects a cash outflow for organic capex amounting to 1.4 billion RON and a cash outflow for inorganic investments and loans amounting to 0.6 billion RON, while investments in government bonds had a net positive impact of 0.1 billion RON. The net cash position, including leases, decreased to 10.2 billion RON at the end of September 2024 versus 14.5 billion RON at the end of the third quarter of 2023. The special dividends in the amount of 1.9 billion RON were paid starting September 3rd. Let me move on to Outlook on slide 13. I will refer only to the guidance for this year, as the guidance for 2025 to 2026 is currently under review as part of our annual planning process.
We expect Brent oil price in 2024 to be between $80 and $85 per barrel. Given better-than-expected production for the first nine months of the year, we increased the guidance for our hydrocarbon production to around 108,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. We expect inflationary pressure on our cost to persist, and therefore, we see the production cost at around $16 per barrel of oil equivalent for the year 2024. In refining and marketing, we currently estimate an average refining margin of around $9 per barrel in 2024, lower compared to our previous guidance given the market trends visible starting with the third quarter. The refinery utilization rate is still estimated to remain above 95%. As Christina mentioned earlier, we broadly maintain our CapEx guidance. Organic CapEx is expected to be up to 6.5 billion RON in 2024.
Additional investments for the announced M&A transactions would bring total CapEx to around RON 7.5 billion. In 2024, we expect a positive free cash flow before dividends, but lower year-on-year, driven by strong operational performance offset to a large extent by significantly higher investments. We estimate demand for retail fuel products in Romania to be above 2023, while gas and power demand to be stable year-on-year. We expect both total refined product sales and retail fuel sales to be higher year-on-year. Our total gas sales volumes are expected to decrease, mainly on lower supply both from equity and third parties. The net electrical output is expected to be higher year-on-year, reflecting a shorter shutdown of the Brazi power plant. With this, I close our presentation and thank you for your attention.
Thank you, Alina.
Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question, you need to press star one one on your telephone today. We kindly ask you to limit to three questions per participant. Once again, to ask a question, please press star one one. We'll go for a moment to reschedule the queue.
We will take our first question. And the question comes from the line of Iuliana Andrei from Alpha Bank Romania. Please go ahead.
Hello, and thank you for the presentation. I have some questions. First, you mentioned the portfolio optimization through assessing selective fields' divestments. Can you please give us guidance on what and when to expect regarding divestments? Second, if I may, a clarification regarding taxation. You currently have a tax on turnover that stands at 0.5%. Starting with 2026, this tax will increase to 1%. And is there a time frame?
My last question, regarding the refining margin, you lowered the guidance for 2024, but what about 2025, 2026? I know that you mentioned that this is under review, but can you give us here your view on refining margins? Thank you. That's all from my side.
Alina, thank you very much for your questions. I'll take your first one, then Alina will take your second one on taxation, and we will come back to your third one. So I think your question on sort of portfolio divestments, I think, was sort of referring to a statement we have with regards to our E&P portfolio. We don't actually give any details. I think just the main point is to say that we will continue to look about whether there is value in high-grading our portfolio to make sure that we're concentrating on investing in both areas.
So at this point in time, there is nothing to announce to you, but when there is, we will, of course, let you know.
Hello, Iuliana, also from my side. So with regards to your question related to taxation, so basically for the years 2024 and 2025, this 0.5% tax on revenues is applicable to both OMV Petrom SA and OPM, our OMV Petrom marketing entity. This tax is applicable starting to only for this two years. Now, starting 2026, for OPM, OPM will go into this highest between 1% of the sales and 16% of the profit tax. So this will be applicable only for OPM. And with regards to a bit of an estimation, so if we look at 2024 and 2025, this 0.5% tax is up to RON 250 million per year for each of these two years.
When it comes to 2026, we talk about less than 100 million per year for OMV only.
Coming back to your third question on the refining indicator margin, you're correct. We have lowered the estimate for 2024, as you mentioned for the third quarter, is mainly due to weaker gasoline and middle distillate crack spreads. When you look at the full year, I mean, we do see an oversupply position in diesel, in part because of a new refinery in Africa coming on. But also, I think we can see the shifting of demand in gasoline as well, coming after the end of the driving season in the third quarter, in part being replaced with heating agricultural demand in the fourth quarter. I heard your question with regards to 2025 and 2026.
You're right that we will look to give you an indication of that when we talk to you, when we give you an update in February and you see you then. I hope that addresses your questions, Iuliana. Yes, thank you very much. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question from Oleg Galbură from Raiffeisen Bank International. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Oleg Galbură from Raiffeisen here. I hope you can hear me well. I have three questions, rather some clarifications. The first one is on the E&P segment. I have noticed that the evolution of the depreciation expense for the segment stood on a declining trend in the previous two quarters. So firstly, could you please explain why is the depreciation decreasing in Q2 and Q3 on a quarter-on-quarter basis? And secondly, what should we expect going forward?
And then on OpEx per BOE, which has increased quite in Q3, and I understand the drivers behind this increase. However, since based on your full-year production guidance, the oil and gas output in Q4 should not increase on a quarter-on-quarter comparison, shall we expect a continuation or continuous deterioration of the OpEx per BOE in the last quarter of this year? And lastly, on refining and marketing, just a few words, and if you cannot answer it right now, I'm happy to talk to our team afterwards. I noticed that the CCS inventory valuation effects were higher than at least my expectations in the third quarter. And for example, last year in the third quarter, the change in Brent price was even higher than this year. However, the inventory valuation effects were significantly lower. So maybe you can elaborate a bit on it. Thank you. Okay.
Alina, do you want to take the first question on the second question? I will take it on the third one, maybe offline. Offline, probably.
Hello, Oleg from my side. So with regards to depreciation, there are two main impacts that trigger the depreciation decline. On one hand, it's the UOP depreciation. It's always UOP based on unit of production, so lower production, lower depreciation. And the second reason is Q3 last year, we had some one-off type of impairments at that time booked. So by comparison, this shows a decline in depreciation in this quarter. If we look going forward, I think the only thing we can predict, you should calculate based on the unit of production, so estimated based on our production guidance, because otherwise, the one-off impairment, this is not something we can predict. Thank you.
I think your question on the OPEX per barrel was, obviously, you understood our explanation with regards to the third quarter and your sort of estimate with regards to the fourth quarter given the production we had put out. I mean, I think it's fair to say that we continue to see increasing pressures on the cost side, particularly on personnel costs, given the inflation rates that we've seen in the past few years, and continue to see. However, we work very hard to try and offset them through efficiencies overall. I think our forecast that we've got for the year is, yeah, but we are constantly having to work and then fight against an increasing cost base, particularly when the production's going down, but we continue to focus on that and have lots of efficiency efforts underway.
With regards to the third question, should we come back to offline on such a specific one if that's okay with you, Oleg?
It was nothing special or an adjustment or anything like that. So we'll have to look and we'll come back to you.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. You're welcome. Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question, you need to press *11. While we are waiting to see if there are further questions, I see Tamas just registered. Maybe, yeah, let's take Tamas's question.
Thank you. Please stand by. Hello? Can you hear me? Tamas Pletser from Erste Group Research, your line is open. Please ask your question.
Yes, thank you very much. Good afternoon. I got one question. How do you see the development of the gas prices in October and during the fourth quarter?
And how does this regulatory change affect your profitability? I mean, I know that you have a higher storage obligation this year than previous year. So will it increase or will it boost your fourth quarter earnings, especially if the prices are getting higher in the gas side during this period? Thank you.
Thank you, Tamas, for the question. So on the gas price, we see an increase in Q4 of the gas prices. Still, what we see is that BRM prices remain lower than CEGH and TTFs. So there is a decoupling there. If we look historically, we see a difference of EUR 1 per megawatt. Now we see that it's much more than that, EUR 5-6 per megawatt.
This is driven by different market fundamentals in Southeastern Europe, which gas price is mainly pipeline gas and less LNG, while in Central Eastern Europe, we see more LNG and also some uncertainty with regards to Ukraine and Russia transit agreement. So this is foreseen to continue. Yeah, we see some increases in gas price also here in our region. With regards to regulatory changes, we have these changes starting April 2024, which affect us quite significantly. I would say the more negative impact is on the power side, and this comes primarily from this CO2 non-recoverability of CO2. There is some impact also on the gas, but not to a significant extent. Thank you.
This gas storage issue, does it have an impact on your profitability? Because as far as I know, you had to store more gas ahead of the winter heating season.
Yes, we do.
I mean, it all depends in the end on what level we will be able to sell this gas. But for the time being, yes, we do have higher storage than in the previous year, indeed.
But is my assumption correct? If the gas prices are higher generally in the fourth quarter and then the first quarter next year, this is going to be an addition to your profitability?
Yes. Now, if you look, yes, and it will be reflected primarily in the E&P segment. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. That's fairly clear. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question from Jonathan Lamb from Wood & Co. Please go ahead.
Hi. Can you hear me?
Yes, Jonathan.
Thank you for the presentation. I want to ask a question around oil prices. We've seen oil prices come off quite dramatically because of the lack of a war.
I'm wondering how this is going to impact you in the fourth quarter in terms of working capital. But also, are we getting close to a level where there might need to be impairments in any of the upstream, or are we not there yet?
Thanks for your question, Jonathan. I'll let Alina talk to that, particularly on the impairment side, but I feel like we have a pretty robust E&P business.
Yes. Hello, Jonathan from my side as well. Indeed, we do the impairment testing. We look for triggers for impairment every quarter, but we do a more thorough analysis every year in the fourth quarter. I mean, based on what we see right now around us, we do not see any reason for anything significant.
But of course, we need to do this work in the fourth quarter, and if there is anything with regards to that, we will come at the beginning of February. With regards to impact on net working capital, indeed, if we see a decline, we will have a positive impact at least from the inventory side in the net working capital from a decline in oil prices. We do expect seasonally some decline on gas volumes as well, which should trigger some positive impact on the net working capital in Q4 as well.
Okay. Thank you.
You're welcome.
While we are waiting to see further questions, maybe we can take some questions that we got offline. I will read all three of them. What's the current status of the oil and gas reserves of OMV Petrom, the reserves life? Is there any related to that?
Is there any plans to upgrade our production facilities in E&P? Second, if we have any plans to move into Petchems? And the third one, if we can elaborate on the other adjustment line in the operational cash flow. Okay.
Alina, I'll take the first three if you want to take the other adjustments in the cash line. So thank you for your questions overall. Maybe I'll start with the PETCHEMS one. I think actually in our strategy, I think I've laid out quite clearly our big sort of growth areas and investment areas stay around growth in regional gas as well as low and zero carbon transition projects that we want to invest in.
We are doing some work on the new Aromatic Complex in the Petrobrazi Refinery, but the bulk of our new investments are going towards energy transition projects and to gas opportunities in the Black Sea overall. With regards to the oil and gas reserves, I think it was the R/P ratio that you're looking for. It's just over 10. It's about 10.3 for the company overall. That does include a small amount to do with Neptun Deep. Looking at the overall traditional, what we call our traditional E&P business, which is a huge part of our near-term cash generation of the firm, we're investing around EUR 400 million-EUR 450 million a year into that business. Obviously, focus a lot on the drilling and the workover program as well as on facilities and general maintenance.
And we have been very pleased with the production performance that we have seen from the E&P team so far this year, hence the increase in expectation of the full-year production number. Alina, on other adjustments?
With regards to other adjustments line from the cash flow, the previous quarters, both Q2 2024 but also Q3 2023, were influenced by Solidarity Contribution. This is adjusted in the other adjustment line in order to reflect overall the operating cash flow that payment done for Solidarity Contribution. This was not the case in this quarter in Q3 2024. And also, we had some net expenses for fair value for derivatives through P&L, mainly related to our CO2, our contract that were reflected in this line. In this quarter, we also had very small amounts with regards to such derivatives. Thank you.
Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question, you need to press *11 on your telephone keypad. Just wait for a few seconds to see if there is anyone else. Thank you. We will take our next question. And the question comes from the line of Daniela Mândru from Swiss Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hello, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. Regarding the last quarter of the year, I would like to see where do you see the refining margin in the Q4 this year. And going forward, with the indicator refining margin declining sharply, what does Petrom see for refining margins in 2025? I know the question was already raised, but I prefer to insist a little bit on it. And more than this, are there plans to adjust refining operation or diversify the project slate to enhance resilience here?
Then, for the full year, regarding the sales of regulated gas volumes, my last information is that for the full year, the amount stands at 7.9 terawatts. I want to confirm this with you. And what is the regulated volume allocated for the first quarter next year? I'd like to know if it's possible and if it is available. And now, also regarding the total gas sales for the year, I know your budget is 39.3 terawatts. I have a preliminary estimate of 48.8 terawatts. I'd like to confirm my estimate with you if I'm in line with what you would estimate for the full year. Revised estimate, of course, because the budget is 39.3. Thank you.
Thank you for all your questions, Dana. So I will take your refining-oriented questions, and Alina will take your gas-oriented questions.
With regards to the refining indicator margin, I think it's probably possible, given what we say, to some degree, I think probably to back-calculate what the fourth quarter would look like, and I think we estimate that to be around 7. Then with regards to 2025, I think I will have to hold to my same comment that I said earlier on. Otherwise, it would be unfair to, I think it was luliana who asked that, but be sure we'll come back to you in February when we meet again overall, and I think with regards to the overall refinery, I mean, of course, we are constantly looking to flex where we can to make sure we optimize the asset. The performance has been very strong on its utilization.
We were at 99% in the third quarter, and we're, I think, quite good at knowing how to optimize depending on the different product suites that we go on and how the prices are changing in the market overall. So we will obviously continue to look to do that. Alina, for a few questions on the gas side.
Hello, Dana, also from my side. So first, with regards to regulated sales volumes that we sell to households and district heating companies, for Q3, we have 2.3 terawatt-hour, which makes an overall 8 terawatt-hour for full year 2024. When it comes to Q1 2025, we have a volume indicated of 2.6 terawatt-hour for Q1 2025. With regards to your second question related to total gas sales, so our total gas sales volumes are in this quarter decreased versus previous year, mainly on lower supply, both from equity and third parties.
We cannot disclose exactly the value. You are not far away with your estimation. Thank you.
Thank you a lot. If there are no more questions, I want to thank you again for taking part in our conference call. For further information, please do not hesitate to contact our investor relations team. Until our next call, we wish you all the best. Thank you.
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.