Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the OMV Petrom earnings call. Today's presentation will last around 30 minutes and will be recorded. By now, you should have received the presentation by email. The slides and the speech are also available online on www.omvpetrom.com in the investors section. These also include the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements. Now, let me hand over to Simona Crutu, Manager of the Investor Relations and Stakeholder Engagement Department, who will moderate the event.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us. We'll have a presentation of the fourth quarter results, followed by a Q&A session. Christina Verchere, Chief Executive Officer, will provide the key highlights about the macroeconomic and regulatory environment, our operational performance in the Strategy 2030 execution. Alina Popa, Chief Financial Officer, will give you more details on our financial performance and the brief outlook. Afterwards, all executive board members will be available to answer your questions. We recommend you to register for the Q&A session during the presentation by pressing star one one on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. You can also register during the Q&A session if set. I'm now handing over to Christina.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome from my side. Thank you for joining our call. It is a real pleasure to present to you today OMV Petrom's performance for the fourth quarter of 2022. Let me first draw your attention to our legal disclaimer, which you can read in detail on slide 2. Let me start by taking a look at the evolution of commodity prices and the main currencies in the fourth quarter of 2022. Brent price continued its decline in the fourth quarter and averaged $89 per barrel, 12% lower versus the previous quarter. In a year-on-year comparison, the average Brent price was up by 11%.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, and on a year-on-year basis, the RON depreciated versus the U.S. dollar by 12%, but maintained broadly stable against the euro, supported by the central bank's interventions in the market. OMV Petrom indicator refining margin reached $18.80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, more than $11 higher year-on-year as a result of higher product spreads, mainly for diesel, gasoline, and jet. In the natural gas market, the European spot prices fell by around 50% during the quarter due to high storage levels as well as an unusually mild weather. At an average of EUR 99 per MWh , CEE price more than half compared to the record high levels in the third quarter and was 4% higher year-on-year.
Gas prices on the Romanian centralized market also increased, with day-ahead prices 3% higher year-on-year to an average of EUR 93 per MWh . Base load electricity prices in Romania decreased by 45% from the record highs in the third quarter and were 7% higher year-on-year in euro terms. Average market spark spread reached a record high for fourth quarter as the electricity price increase outpaced those in gas and CO2 prices. The CO2 price continued its quarter-on-quarter decrease. This was due to the downward pressure from lower industrial demand triggered by high energy prices. Moving to the macroeconomic environment, the latest available data shows that in the third quarter of 2022, Romanian GDP increased by 4.6% year-on-year, mostly supported by services. In October, the IMF estimated GDP growth for 2023 and 2024 at 3.1% and 3.8% year-on-year respectively.
Romania's economy is set to slow down due to higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and the risks and uncertainties generated by the prolonged war in Ukraine and the related sanctions. The consumer price index in the month of December 2022 versus December 2021 was 16.4%, driven primarily by energy prices and their impact on associated goods and services. For 2023, the National Bank of Romania estimates a gradual decrease of the inflation rate, more significant in the second half, with an average 11% for the full year. Looking at the energy sector in the fourth quarter of 2022, and in the context of high energy prices and inflation concerns, the demand for gas and power significantly decreased in Romania.
The demand for fuels increased year-on-year despite rising cost of living and fuel price pressure, in part helped by the voluntary discount applied in Romania as well as warm weather. Demand for retail fuels in Romania increased by almost 6% year-on-year, while the commercial market demand decreased by 4% year-on-year. Jet demands continued to recover, increasing by 35% year-on-year from a low basis due to continued strong recovery in air travel. Gas demand, as per internal estimates, decreased by 22% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level for fourth quarter in the last two decades following reduced end-user consumption impacted by high prices and warm weather. Power demand was lower by 12% year-on-year, while domestic power production decreased by 4% year-on-year. Romania switching to a net exporter position from a net importer position of power in the third quarter.
Power production wind, gas, and coal had a significantly lower contribution to the generation mix, while hydro generation increased. In our previous calls, we mentioned the temporary measures implemented by the Romanian government to address the high gas and power prices applicable starting April 2022. In December 2022, the parliament approved Law 357, transposing Emergency Ordinance 119 and extending its applicability to March 2025. The main provisions of this ordinance refer to the reduction of the gas price cap for heat producers for households and the introduction of a cap transfer price for the equity gas used in power plants. The windfall tax for electricity producers increased from 80% - 100%. A new tax on gas and power trading profit, taxing all profits above 2% was introduced.
As one of the main players on the gas and power markets, we are revisiting our future sales strategies to optimize our business in this highly regulated environment. As mentioned, the gas volumes used in the Brazi power plant are also subject to cap prices starting September 2022. The portion of our gas portfolio subject to the new regulation increased to almost 80% in the fourth quarter of 2022. For 2023, we estimate that 75% of our gas portfolio will be regulated. The regulations implemented in 2022 are also impacting our power sales portfolio, leading to an increase in the weighted of regulated volumes to above 90% in the fourth quarter. The windfall tax for power production recorded by OMV Petrom in the fourth quarter was around RON 714 million.
In November, the government adopted the Emergency Ordinance 153, which introduced the obligation of certain electricity producers, including gas-fired power plants, to sell electricity at RON 450 per MWh to OPCOM through the centralized acquisition mechanism from the first of January 2023 and until the 31st of March 2025. For 2023, given the regulatory framework, all our power sales in Romania are subject to some form of regulation or taxation. In addition, the temporary measures for the fuels market were applicable voluntarily until the end of 2022. We continued to apply these measures in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a negative impact of our Clean CCS Operating Result of around RON 210 million.
As mentioned in our trading update, the E.U. Regulation 1854 of 2022 that introduced a temporary solidarity contribution, has been transposed into Romanian legislation by the government Emergency Ordinance 186, published on the 29th of December 2022. Based on our 2022 preliminary financials and the current provision of this emergency ordinance, OMV Petrom is expected not to be subject to a solidarity contribution for the fiscal year 2022, having less than 75% of its turnover in the defined areas of the extraction of crude, extraction of natural gas, extraction of coal and refining business. The emergency ordinance may be subject to changes during the parliamentary process approval.
As a reminder, as a consequence of the newly introduced regulations, taxes and contributions, and also of the high commodity price environment, 2022 direct taxes and contributions increased approximately 4x year-on-year to approximately RON 10 billion for 2022. As mentioned previously, we recognize the need for the government to support consumers in these very unusual times. The frequent interventions, particularly in the gas and power segments and the lack of consultations, brings volatility and instability for the market participants and increased risks of market disruptions, including related to the security of supply. Price caps support demand, but are a disincentive for investments in energy efficient projects and send distorted signals to the market. Interventions should be temporary in nature, targeted mostly to vulnerable consumers, and taken only after a robust impact assessment.
In the medium term, free market principles are fundamental for investments. On slide 6, we present the key highlights for the quarter. At group level, Clean CCS Operating Result of RON 2.1 billion was 38% higher year-on-year. Our operating cash flow decreased by 13% year-on-year to RON 1.8 billion, while Clean CCS Return on Average Capital Employed reached 38 percentage points. The overall good results in exploration production as well as in refining and marketing, was supported by high commodity prices and our strong operational performance. The gas and power result was only marginally positive on increased regulation and over taxation. In exploration production, we recorded slightly higher quarter-on-quarter production in both oil and gas due to increased contribution from drilling and workovers and lower maintenance works.
In refining and marketing, Petrobrazi refinery had an excellent utilization rate of 99%. Our refined product sales and retail sales increased year on year by 5% and 7% respectively. In gas and power, total gas sales volumes increased by 2% year on year, triggered by a large number of new customers under supplier of last resort mechanism. Based on the preliminary results for 2022, the executive board proposes for the 2022 financial year a base dividend per share of RON 0.0375 , 10% higher year on year. This is at the top end of the range announced as part of our Strategy 2030. At the same time, the executive board is planning to propose a special dividend to be paid in 2023. The value will be announced in mid 2023.
Elena will provide more details on this. We are further focused on delivering on our three strategic directions and preparing OMV Petrom for capturing the energy transition opportunities. Regarding regional gas and our Neptun Deep strategic project, in December, we submitted the declaration of commerciality. This represents an intermediate step towards the final investment decision. As operator of the block, we are currently collecting offers from contractors and negotiating contracts. Assuming all prerequisites are in place, we plan for the FID in 2023, in middle of 2023. On HSE, the total recordable injury rate for the year 2022 was 0.38.
Based on our preliminary data, the GHG intensity slightly decreased, with lower index levels in exploration production and at the Brazi power plant, reflecting our ongoing initiatives to reduce carbon emissions. On slide 7, I would like to present the operational performance, and I will start with exploration and production. Hydrocarbon production decreased by 3.4% due to the natural decline in the main fields in Romania and the divestment of the 40 marginal fields to Dacian Petroleum in the fourth quarter of 2021, partly offset by contribution of new wells and workovers. Excluding portfolio optimization, production in Romania decreased by 3%. For the full year, the daily average production, excluding portfolio optimization, declined by 5.6%, slightly better than our previous guidance. Production cost per barrel oil equivalent increased by 5% year-on-year to a level of $13.43.
This was mainly due to higher costs related to personnel and services and lower production available for sale. Personnel costs increased due to one-off payments. These were partially offset by the favorable foreign exchange evolution. We continue to focus on containing costs and counteracting the pressure coming from suppliers by intensifying our procurement activities. In Refining and Marketing, the refining utilization rate was 99%, well above the European average. Total refined product sales volumes recorded a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by improved demand. Our retail sales volumes were higher by 7% due to increased demand, helped by the warm weather and the voluntary discount in Romania. Non-retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year, mainly helped by the partial recovery of the aviation business and increased sales on the local market.
In gas and power, total gas sales volumes were 2% up year-on-year, while gas volumes sold to third parties increased by 6% year-on-year. The lower equity gas production was compensated by higher third-party acquisitions, a very good performance given the existing market supply challenges. During the fourth quarter, we continued to deliver to the regulated market, both households as well as heat producers for household consumption, the gas quantities as per received allocation. At the same time, our portfolio increased with a large number of customers under supply of last resort mechanism. The Brazi Power Plant generated 1.48 TWh in the fourth quarter, maintaining its 11% share of Romania's electricity generation mix. Moving now to slide 8. Total organic CapEx amounted to RON 3.6 billion in 2022, 26% higher year-on-year.
The majority, RON 2.6 billion was directed to exploration production, where we finalized the drilling of 55 new wells and sidetracks and performed almost 650 workover jobs. We ramped up drilling activities from seven drilling rigs in the fourth quarter up from 4 in the first quarter of 2022. In refining and marketing, most of the RON 0.8 billion investments were dedicated to the ongoing major projects at the Petrobrazi refinery. In gas and power, the majority of investments were directed to the Brazi power plant maintenance shutdown. For 2023, we plan investments of about RON 6 billion , approximately 70% higher year-on-year, with increased investments dedicated mainly to the Neptun Deep project, accelerated low and zero carbon projects, as well as the Petrobrazi refinery turnaround and related tie-in projects.
RON 2.9 billion will be rooted exploration and production, including for the Neptun Deep project. We plan to drill around 55 new wells and sidetracks and to perform around 450 workovers. The RON 2.2 billion refining and marketing investments will be directed mainly to the Petrobrazi Refinery, including for the approximately 40-day turnaround in April and May. We are progressing with the new aromatics unit and our projects for producing advanced ethanol and SAF HVO in the Petrobrazi Refinery. Also, an approximately 80-day planned shutdown of the Brazi Power Plant is scheduled between March and May as part of the RON 0.9 billion planned investments in the gas and power segment.
Ladies and gentlemen, as 2022 was the first year of our new strategic cycle, let me present to you our progress in implementing our strategy last year and what we are planning to deliver this year. I will start with the first pillar of our strategy, transition to low and zero carbon. In gas and power, we made good progress towards reaching our target of more than 1 GW of installed photovoltaic capacity by 2030. In October, we announced our partnership with Complexul Energetic Oltenia for the development of 450 MW. In addition, we have developed a strong portfolio of projects, opportunities and initiatives in different phases of implementation, a well-balanced mix of our own developed projects and potential partnerships in renewable power. In the Petrobrazi Refinery, the first batch of sustainable aviation fuel was produced by co-processing locally produced rapeseed oil.
In October, we announced the final investment decision of EUR 130 million for a new aromatics unit at the Petrobrazi Refinery. This will function at modern operating standards with low environmental impact and will double the production capacity of the aromatics product to around 100,000 tons per year, starting in 2026. On alternative mobility, 120 fast and ultra-fast charging points were installed at the end of 2022. Our plan for 2023 is to double the number of charging points, both within our own filling station network and in other destinations. Moving to the second pillar of our strategy, grow regional gas. Our major project, Neptun Deep, is progressing, and we are only a few months away from a final investment decision in mid-2023, leading to first gas in 2027.
As mentioned before, in the context of steep natural decline in our domestic gas production, we see Black Sea gas as a solution for securing Romania's energy independence. Regarding other expansion areas in the Black Sea, we are progressing well in Bulgaria, where we plan to drill one offshore well in 2023 or 2024. In the third strategic pillar, optimizing traditional business, we continue to capitalize on our integrated business model across all business segments, maximizing the value from our traditional asset base. Based on the very good results so far, we accelerated the rollout of our partnership with Auchan, reaching 275 modernized stores at the end of 2022. The rollout in 400 Petrom-branded filling stations expected to be finalized this year, one year ahead of the initial plan.
The utilization rate for Petrobrazi in 2022 was 95%, significantly above the European refining average, proving once more the high value performance of our refinery. For 2023, we expect a utilization rate of approximately 85%, reflecting the first major turnaround after a running period of five years, meeting our target to have four or five years between turnarounds. The Brazi power plant, we celebrate in 2022, 10 years of commercial operations, generated a record high electrical output of 5 TWh, representing 9% in Romania's generation mix, a very good contribution to the security of supply. In gas and power, we have intensified our activities in the neighboring markets via both gas and power buy and sell transactions, setting up a good foundation for further expansion of our regional footprint. Moreover, we have achieved diversification of our supply sources and supply chains.
As our overarching ambition is to reduce the carbon intensity of our operations by 30% by 2030 compared to 2019, in 2023, we will continue to put our efforts into this. In 2022, we reduced our methane emissions intensity by 35% year-on-year, progressing towards our target of less than 0.2% by 2025. At the same time, we stick to our stronger commitment to increase the base dividend per share by 5%-10% per annum on average by 2030. In 2022, we paid a record high amount as a base in special dividends, totaling RON 4.5 billion.
We are also now proposing a base dividend for 2022 at the top end of our guidance for the yearly increase and are planning to propose a special dividend to be paid in 2023, the value to be announced in mid-2023. Please let me now hand over to Alina, who will go into the financials and the outlook in detail.
Thank you, Christina, and good afternoon also from my side. I will continue the presentation with slide 11, starting with some highlights of the income statement, with focus on the developments of the fourth quarter of 2022 versus the similar period of 2021. Sales increased by 91% year-on-year, reflecting higher commodity prices and higher sales volumes. Exploration and production clean operating results increased to RON 1.1 billion from RON 0.6 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. The higher prices and the favorable exchange rate effect were partly offset by lower volumes as well as higher production costs. Refining and Marketing Clean CCS Operating Results increased by 57% year-on-year, reaching RON 0.9 billion, mainly due to the favorable evolution of the refining margin, partly offset by lower retail and commercial margins.
Gas and power clean operating results decreased to RON 132 million from RON 444 million in the fourth quarter last year. The good operational results in both gas and power businesses line being severely impacted by the legislation in place with gas prices and lower taxation. The clean consolidation line of RON 30 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 reflects mainly the positive impact of decline of quotations. Consequently, the group Clean CCS Operating Result increased by 38% year-on-year to RON 2.1 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we recorded inventory holding losses of RON 126 million, mainly reflecting the decrease of crude prices over the quarter. For comparison, in the fourth quarter of last year, we recorded inventory holding gains of RON 122 million.
Net special charges of RON 0.8 billion were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, mainly related to net impairments in exploration and production. In the fourth quarter of 2022, following the update of our mid and long-term planning assumption, an impairment test was performed for the exploration and production segment, which led to net impairments for tangible assets of RON 1.8 billion before tax. These impairments were driven mainly by revised future production profiles for our assets due to a steeper than previously expected natural decline and also by higher operating costs. These special charges were partly offset by the net temporary gains from forward power contracts in gas and power segment.
For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net special charges of RON 129 million mainly related to temporary losses from power forward contracts in the gas and power segment. The Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders increased by 60% year-on-year to RON 1.9 billion. The reported net income attributable to stockholders was RON 1.2 billion, 4% lower year-on-year. Let me go on to slide 12, which shows the major building blocks for the development of the Clean CCS Operating Results. I will start with exploration and production, where clean operating results significantly improved to RON 1.1 billion.
The positive market effect deviation of RON 550 million was triggered by the steep increase in oil and gas prices and favorable evolution of the U.S. dollar versus RON. Nevertheless, the positive effect from the higher gas market prices was partly offset by the increase in royalties paid, which are largely referenced to gas price. On a sharp upward trend on a year-on-year basis instead of realized gas price. The gas supplementary taxation recorded a discrete year-on-year, reflecting higher regulated sales quantities, which are not subject to this tax. As just mentioned by Christina, the EMP realized gas price in the fourth quarter reflected the increasing sales volume at regulated prices, as well as the quantities of gas for the Brazi Power Plant.
The operational effects include a negative volume deviation due to the 4% lower hydrocarbon sales, higher production costs driven by cost inflation and higher depreciation. These are more than compensated by the lower clean exploration expenses and portfolio effects on taxation. Looking at the lower chart, Refining and Marketing Clean CCS Operating Results increased by 57% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The positive market effect reflects the higher refining margin as a result of higher product spread. Operational effects in Refining and Marketing were overall negative and mainly reflect lower retail and commercial margins, as well as the fuel price discount voluntarily applied in Romania during the quarter. In Gas and Power, the clean operating result decreased by 70% year-on-year.
The result of the good operational business performance in both Gas and Power businesses was more than offset by legislation in place with regulated prices and overtaxation. On slide 13, I would like to continue with the highlights of our cash flow statement. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we achieved an operating cash flow of RON 1.8 billion, 13% lower year-on-year, reflecting the negative net working capital changes. Regarding the evolution of the net working capital, in the fourth quarter of 2022, we recorded a cash outflow of RON 0.9 billion compared to a cash inflow of RON 28 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The outflow in the fourth quarter of 2022 was mainly due to increasing receivables, largely related to the compensations to be received from the Romanian state for sales of natural gas as part of our supplier of last resort obligation. Also due to higher quantities of natural gas and power delivered. The decrease in liabilities was mainly due to lower supplementary taxation, as well as lower royalties driven by gas prices. This was partly counterbalanced by the decrease in inventories, driven mainly by crude oil due to lower quantities of imports of crude oil and lower quotations. Our net payment for investments amounted to RON 0.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, 18% higher year-on-year.
The net cash position, including leases, increased to RON 13.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022 versus RON 9.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. Moving now to slide 15. Let me remind you that in December 2021, we reinforced our dividend policy with a stronger commitment, announcing our target to increase our base dividend per share by 5%- 10% per annum on average over the Strategy 2030 cycle. This shows that we, the executive board of OMV Petrom, are committed to deliver a competitive shareholder return also by paying attractive dividend.
Based on 2022 preliminary results, the executive board proposes a dividend of RON 0.0375 per share for the 2022 financial year, 10% higher year-on-year at the high end of the range stated in our guidance. We believe that this proposal is competitive among regional peers from the perspective of a 9% dividend yield. The base dividend proposal is subject for the approval of the supervisory board and general meeting of shareholders, which will take place in April. In line with our dividend guidance, we are planning to propose a special dividend to be paid in 2023, with the exact value to be announced in mid of 2023. Let me conclude our presentation with the outlook on slide 15.
We expect Brent oil price in 2023 to be above $80 per barrel, significantly above the range of $65-$70 per barrel assumed in our Strategy 2030. For the years 2024-2025, we expect an average oil price of about $75 per barrel. Our hydrocarbon production in 2023 is expected to be around 110,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day, excluding possible divestment. For the years 2024-2025, our hydrocarbon production is estimated to be between 95,000 and 100,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day. We expect inflationary pressure on our costs to persist throughout the year.
Being supported by stronger U.S. dollar, we see the production cost at around $15 per barrel of oil equivalent for the year 2023 and at around $16 per barrel on average for 2023, 2024. In refining and marketing, we currently estimate an average refining margin higher than $9 per barrel in 2023, and a similar level also for 2024 and 2025 on average. The refinery utilization rate is estimated to be above 85% in 2023, considering the scheduled major refinery turnaround and above 95% in 2024, 2025. As Christina mentioned earlier, CapEx is expected to be around RON 6 billion in 2023, of which RON 2.9 billion dedicated to EMP, including Neptun Deep, RON 2.2 billion in R&M, and RON 0.9 billion in gas and power.
For 2024 and 2025, CapEx is expected to increase to approximately RON 7 billion on average. In 2023, due to higher investments, we expect a marginally positive free cash flow before dividends significantly lower compared to 2022 value of RON 8.2 billion. We envisage demand for all our products in Romania to be broadly flat year-on-year. When it comes to fuel, we refer here to the retail market only. We expect total refined product sales to decline compared to 2022 due to lower exports year-on-year, while our retail fuel sales are expected to be broadly flat. Our total gas sales volumes are envisaged to be lower, mainly on lower supply, both from equity and third parties.
Net electrical output is also expected to be lower year-over-year in the context of a longer outage length for two and a half months for the entire capacity. In conclusion, in 2023, we will continue to deliver on our Strategy 2030 with significant increase in investment and competitive shareholders returns. With this, I close our presentation and thank you for your attention. We are now available for your questions.
Thank you, Alina. Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question, you need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. We kindly ask you to limit to three questions per participant. We will take as many questions as time permits. Once again, to ask a question, please press star one one. We'll pause for a moment to assemble the queue.
Thank you. Please stand by. We will take our first question. The question comes from Tamas Pletser from Erste Group. Please ask your question. Tamas Pletser, your line is open.
Yeah, yeah.
Please ask your question.
Sorry. Sorry. Okay, I'm just here. Thanks very much. Yes, good afternoon. Thanks very much for taking my question. I got. I'm interested in two topics, basically. First is the FID on Neptune. What are the current situation with the negotiations with the Romanian government over those legislative issues, what you have talked in the last quarter? What I remember that you talked about some minor problems within the offshore law. How do you proceed with agreement of the government on these issues? How do you see to be sure that you can make the FID on Neptune in the middle of this year? That would be my first question.
My second question is what's your opinion about this current, I would say, excessive, regulatory and taxation framework in Romania? Do you see some chances that the current system would ease? I just see that, you know, the gas prices are now falling, so maybe the government may not need to be so harsh on you, may potentially, you know, eliminate the price caps or anything like that. Do you see any chance for that to happen in the near future? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Tamas, for your questions and for joining our call today. I will take the first question. I think we could all debate the second one as well, but maybe between Alina and Franck on that one. On Neptun Deep FID, just as a reminder, we took over the operations, the operator role in August of 2022. We have an international team in place, working very hard on progressing through understanding ultimately the cost base and the contracting side of it. Also we submitted our declaration of commerciality from a regulatory side in line with our concession agreement at the end of last year. We are working on getting the key prerequisites in place. You are correct.
There are some aspects with regards to the offshore law that need clarification with regards to stability, and we will be continuing the dialogue with the state on that. But we are continuing to progress in parallel to take the project forward.
Tamas.
Excuse me. That basically means that these issues are still pending. You don't have an agreement fully on these minor issues in the, in the regulatory framework for the offshore law.
We're still working on getting the clarifications around that.
Okay. Okay, that's clear now. Thank you.
Okay. On the second question, I think the way I understood the question, Tamas, was a bit broader. Gas and power taxation, but also going to the solidarity contribution, if I got it right?
Yes. I'm thinking about the whole, you know, regulatory and fiscal frameworks. Do you see any chances that this very harsh environment from the side of the Romanian Government would ease going forward due to the fact that, you know, the gas prices are not as high as they were before?
Okay. Okay. Basically, the interventions that were in 2022 in gas and power, primarily were all of temporary nature. Indeed, at the beginning, it was expected to be for a year, which was extended later on towards the end of the year until March 2025. Good thing is they have a temporary nature and substance, but nevertheless, we are paying, of course, significant amounts coming from here, and also we are affected coming from the capping as well. With regards to solidarity, you have seen we do not qualify on solidarity for OMV Petrom. I'll hand over to you.
Yes. Mm-hmm.
Yeah. I think on the temporary cycle of these taxes, we also wait to see the reaction of the European Union, because temporary, when it's more than two years, start to be a bit long. I think we will see if the European Union consider this as a extreme position from the Romanian government. That I think, European Union is looking at to propose some change on the power market design, which could also bring some solution for Romania to be closer to European model than the heavy tax regime we are facing now. Also, the 98% tax on trading is quite extreme, I would say, compared to any other benchmark you can find.
Yeah, it's pretty clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from Raphaël Dubois from Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have three if I may. The first one is on Neptune. You provided us with the CapEx budget for 2023. Is this still with the initial guidance of less than EUR 2 billion that you would have to spend on Neptune? Is this already some sort of revised CapEx for Neptune? If you could remind us of the phasing of the spending, would you FID right in the middle of this year? That's my first question. Second one is on Petrobrazi turnaround and Brazi power plant turnaround. Just if you could tell us if it will happen at the very same time.
Last question, comparing the level of regulation in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, would you say that this level of regulation for this coming quarter will be harsher than it was in Q4 2022, comparing maybe over taxation and the capping of the selling prices?
Okay. Raphaël, thank you. Thank you for joining us. I'll take the first question with regards to Neptun Deep. We have actually stated that the CapEx in 2023 for Neptun will be about RON 6 million of that. At this point in time, we have not changed our EUR 2 billion, less than EUR 2 billion euros that we stated in our Strategy 2023. This is the fundamental aspect that we are actually working through with regards to prior to FID to confirm that number when we do actually sanction the project. Our goal is to sanction the project in the middle of the year. Yes, the CapEx would be more geared towards the back end of 2023.
Radu, do you want to talk about?
Yeah.
-turnaround?
The Petrobrazi turnaround is planned, as mentioned by Christina, starting with the second half of April after the Easter, and it will take 42 days. We have as well the power plant, the CCPP plant as well turnaround in a similar period, but it's a much longer turnaround. To be mentioned that they are not necessarily synergies or, let's say, contradictory influence if one of the... If CCPP, for example, it's not overlapping with the Petrobrazi one.
Mm-hmm. Thank you.
Okay. I'll go to the third question. In 2022, we had two important intervention. One which started in April, which was in the four, the gas and power area. This intervention was further increased in starting 1st of September. If we compare with 2022 with Q1 2023, if we look at Q4, rather, Q4 2022, from the level of taxation intervention, we'll have similar intervention with Q1 next year. This is primarily into the gas and power area. When it comes to EMP, we did not have much interventions in EMP. When it comes to RON, we had a 50 bani intervention for voluntary fuel discount. This was for Q3 and Q4. It is not prolonged.
Until now, there are some rumors on the market that it might come, but from a formal point of view, that is, we haven't seen any draft or any clear proposal of prolonging this until now.
Very clear. Thank you very much for that.
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The question comes from the line of Iuliana Ciopraga from Wood & Company. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. I have a number of questions. First, on the equity gas, can you tell us how much of the sales will be regulated in 2023? Actually, I would like some color regarding sales to households and heating producers at 150 RON per MW. My second question. We understand that the government is looking for some clarification on the solidarity tax from the European Commission. Can these clarifications have an impact on the solidarity tax to be paid for 2022? Third, maybe if I'm allowed, the fourth later on. On power, the regulations now limit your realized net power price at 450, and at the same time, the transfer price is 100. This basically locks in around RON 250 per MW for each MW of power produced.
Should we build our assumption for the power segment in 2023 based on this? We don't really see this in the fourth quarter because results in the fourth quarter of 2022 for gas and power was quite low. Thank you.
Thank you. What I suggest actually is that Franck takes question one and question three. Maybe let's start with the question two from Alina.
Hello, Iuliana from my side. I'll try to summarize the situation on the solidarity contribution. According to the Emergency Ordinance 186, and also according to the E.U. regulation, in our view, it's clear that OMV Petrom does not need, does not meet this 75% threshold with activities in the areas of extraction, oil and gas, and refining. You know, we are an integrated company. These activities being primarily electricity, but lso purchases of natural gas, petroleum products from third parties which are being sold. We do not meet this threshold. What we could be is that this ordinance 186 will go through the parliamentary process. We know parliamentary process starts now.
In case there are amendments in the parliamentary process, I mean, in our view, such amendments should apply prospectively. This is in line with constitutional principles. However, we cannot exclude a different approach or a different view from authorities. We will follow up this closely and of course we will inform the market accordingly. Yeah. With regards to clarification, we do not, coming from E.U., we do not see how these clarifications could change the assessment that we are not in scope of the 75% threshold. Thank you.
Hi, Iuliana. I will take the question on the next two question. On the regulated gas price for 2023. As you mentioned, we have to sell at 150 to the household and to the district heating. There's also other type of regulations, not only this. For capped price, we have also a price which is a regulated margin fixed for small customers as well. You could consider that even if it's not a capped price, you have a regulated margin, and then you have to get to be reimbursed the difference between your cost and the capped price. You have different legislation, which is make it complex as such.
One thing also you need to keep in mind is when we sell at a capped price of RON 150, we don't pay tax on it or little tax. No, we pay some tax. Little tax compared to the free market. You have a.
Mm-hmm.
If you look at the free market, you have a supplementary tax. The royalty is calculated differently, et cetera, et cetera. There is quite a difference in term of net back, if you look at it like that. The quantity for next year will be quite high compared to 2022 because we had contracted volume before the regulation came in place. In 2022, we were around 3.9 TWh for the household and the CET. For next year, we expect more from that due to the fact that we didn't have any contracted volume. We don't know yet the volume, so we submitted to the authorities. The deadline was the 1st of February, so it was yesterday. Yesterday. Yes, yes, yesterday.
We will have the results later in the month. When we get the results, we know exactly how much regulated market is allocated to OMV Petrom.
Can you comment on the first quarter? Sorry if I interrupted. Can you comment on the first quarter? I guess you have the details just for the first quarter. Just so we have some clarity on.
We expect it will be quite high, around 70% of our sales. Between 70%-75% of our sales. On the power side, your question was about, your calculation is not far from the reality when you look at 2023. I mean, 2024 was a very different context because we had some forward hedging. We had some optimization, which were planned and done before the regulation came. We are impacted by the regulation and especially the tax on the calculation of tax on Brazi. For 2023, We have a very limited forward hedge, your calculation in terms of spark spread is not far from the what we expect as well.
What you need also to take into account is the depreciation of this asset, so just the margin. That we will have some unplanned shutdown, you know, it's not 100% availability of course. We have some unplanned shutdown. An unplanned shutdown can be, you know, it's difficult to forecast how much it will cost. It will really depend how many days. Historically, we have a very good track record, but, you know, we have a big shutdown now. We have to see when we restart the plant. But historically good track record, but still, you know, it's a costly exercise if you have to buy on the market and to sell at 450.
We have to make sure during the shutdown we do all the maintenance, and that's what we are planning, all the maintenance to guarantee the high availability of the plant and much more than we were planning before.
One more. Regarding the 70%-75%, that includes the power plant, the sales to the power plant or not?
Yes, it includes it. Well, everything we consider as a kind of regulation, if you want. Yeah.
Okay. It's not just household and the power plant, it includes the rest as well.
No, no. It's the total equity. Yeah.
Okay. Okay, thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Irina Railean from BT Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. I hope you hear me well. I have a question regarding the impairment. If you could detail a little bit, what should we expect? We understand you reassessed the future prospects of production decline. What should we expect in the midterm? I mean, can we see higher declines or maybe larger CapEx needs to maintain this decline rates? Related to this, the reserve replacement ratio, we saw it was quite low this year. Should we see it at the similar levels until Neptun Deep, or could we see some improvements here until the first gas from Neptun Deep? One more question on special dividends.
We understood your intention to distribute and to announce something maybe towards the middle of the year. Do you see any risks or any factors that would stop you from distributing special dividends? Here I would like to understand if this potential taxation, solidarity tax, could impact the special dividends you plan to distribute or not. In an unfortunate scenario, let's say that the legislation is changed and the ordinance is changed, not necessarily in your favor. That would be my question.
Thank you, Irina. Again, thank you for joining us. Chris will talk about, sort of decline rates in EMP and reserve replacement ratio. Then, the question with regards to special dividends for Alina.
Yeah. Let's start with EMP. As you know, we are fighting every year a decline between 10% and 20%. This means to bring this down to a level needs, of course, continuous investment. Last year, we ended up with 5.6% decline. We also maybe you also noticed that in the last quarter we had only 3%. Where did this come from? This came out of the through, I think, we'll say, extraordinary wells in the area, gas wells, and this brought the decline actually to this low level. However, for the planning, we took did not take this extraordinary successes into consideration.
We took again the average numbers of all the wells actually in it, and that's why we foresee actually by 2023, about 8% decline. On the combined annual growth rate what we actually as a strategy communicated in this 3%, we want to be increasing it now to 6%. This is, I think, closer to a realistic view what we see in the performance of the wells. On the reserve replacement ratio, it's 10% for last year. You see that the three years reserve replacement ratio average is about 31%. We think it will stay between 10% and 20% for the for years until Neptun Deep gets on stream.
Of course, we go above 100% on the reserve replacement ratio.
Mm-hmm.
I will continue.
Thank you.
I will continue with the special dividends. Mid of the year, we will analyze and evaluate the following three dimensions, I would say. I mean, Christina mentioned we plan for FID2 in mid of 2023. Until then, we will have updated cost assumptions for our biggest projects. This will be very, very important element for us to consider. Of course, we will follow regulatory and fiscal interventions, and here you made a reference to the solidarity topic. We will have more clarity until mid of the year on how this will be changed, if any changes will come. Definitely, we'll assess the overall market environment and our financial performance in the first half of the year. With all these elements being more clear at that moment, we will be able to define the value.
Now, in our view, we should be in a position to give special dividends. It's just a matter of the amount, which will be influenced by this by these three dimensions. That's why we decided to announce it now in order to give this perspective to all investors, that we are planning to do it mid of the year. Thank you.
Thank you.
Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question, you need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. We now take the next questions.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ioana Andrei from Alpha Bank. Please go ahead.
Hello. I was wondering if you can disclose your allocated volumes under the centralized mechanism on the power market for 2023. Second of all, I would like to know if you've mentioned the proved and probable reserves increased due to Neptun Deep. Can you please disclose what was the split exactly? What have you recorded for Neptun?
Okay. Hi, Alina. Sorry. Hi, Ioana. Thank you, thank you for joining us. I'll just do a quick one to answer the second question. Actually, we don't disclose that level of granularity. At the time of when we FID the project, we will provide an update on the resource position then at that point in time. Franck, with regards to allocated volumes for the centralized power market.
I think a very good question, Ioana, because I have to say there's still some clarity we expect from the regulator, but at least 80%, that's what we understood in December from the new legislation. That 80% of the output has to be sold, sorry, to the outcome. On the other 20%, there is, we had two different communications from the regulator. The last one, which arrived last week, explained that we should sell the other 20% as well, offer the other 20% as well, which was not what was communicated in December. We are waiting for clarification on the last 20%.
At the moment, we will offer 100% to the market to Auchan, and we'll seek clarity, we'll seek for clarity for the 20%.
Okay. Basically, what you're saying is that you're actually locking the around RON 450 per MW of fixed as a regulated price for your whole volumes, right? Am I understanding correctly?
As a legislation, we can't do differently.
Okay. Basically you're selling all your volumes on this centralized mechanism.
Yeah. If we sell the 20% to the market, we will pay a 100% tax on the difference between the actual price and the 450. The net impact would be the same.
Sorry, there's no possibility for the contract to, I don't know, the contract you made previously, at a higher price to gain anything else, right?
No, we. Due to the many changes we saw in the regulation last year, we didn't, we had very limited hedge for 2023, that's not going to have a huge impact. This hedge will be also taxed above 450. That's not really a difference. Just on the 450 does not include the cost of CO2. CO2 is on top of that.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Oleg Galbur from Raiffeisen Bank International. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. I hope you can hear me well. I have two questions now and two follow-up questions. The first question relates to your CapEx guidance, which is about RON 2.5 billion around higher for this year. According to your guidance, and based on the previous year's experience, I have concluded that the EMP CapEx incremental and the allocation for the turnaround of the Petrobrazi refinery could amount to some RON 500 million , which leaves another RON 2 billion for other investments or other projects. I was wondering whether you could provide more details with respect to those projects. The second question is on your guidance for the free cash flow before dividends in 2024, 2025.
I was wondering what is the reason for the improvement of free cash flow generation, while at the same time, you expect a less supportive market environment with lower upstream production and higher CapEx. I have two follow-ups. The first one relates to the $1.8 billion loan impairment that you booked in the E&P segment. You've talked a bit about the expectations for the production decline, I was wondering whether you could provide more details with respect to the production decline separately for oil and gas fields. Just a comment here. When looking at your 2024, 2025 guidance and comparing this guidance with the previous guidances, I don't see much difference in terms of production declines.
I was wondering whether this impairment was triggered mainly by a longer term, or a long-term, decline rate worsening or also by significantly higher production costs, which you are also referring to. If it's the case for a higher OpEx per Boe, maybe you can also say a few words about the cost drivers behind this revision. Lastly, on your special dividends, just shortly, would the last year's level of special dividends be some sort of reference for this year? Thank you.
Thank you, Oleg, and thank you for joining. I think maybe we start with coming back to some of your follow-up questions. We go on to the conversation with regards to oil and gas, with regards to the production forecast in the multi-years out, and then we can come back to CapEx, free cash flow for dividends and special dividends after that.
Yeah. Maybe a little bit on the production on the decline. What you are addressing, yes, of course, there's a difference on the gas wells, and gas wells normally decline much faster than the oil wells. Because in the oil wells we are on the long tail production, and this means the changes there are not as significant as on the gas side. It could be twice to triple actually on the gas side. This means 10%+ on wells. On the other hand, we also have some, of course, gas production coming out of the associated gas, and this is rather similar to the oil declines. That's big, that's the big difference mainly.
Also these good wells of the trend this year, we expect them to decline more or less than 10+% every year. Was there another question on the costs maybe? On the costs, of course, you know that the reserve base is defined by several factors. That's the product price, that's the productivity of the reservoirs, that's the cost base, but also the tax side. This means specifically on a mature field, if the cost base increases, this means the reserve base is shrinking. That's actually what we've seen and what we have considered in the impairment.
Not all fields and all cash generating units we had to bear it, was primarily on the oil side, actually, what we did. Yeah.
Okay. I'll touch quickly on the CapEx one. Oleg, we've tried to provide some sort of at least list of the different expenditures that you would see in the slide 8. Because I hope this actually, this CapEx shows strategy in action. What you can see is we'll have more CapEx in there for growing regional gas with the Neptun Deep project, but also with regards to turnarounds also in for the traditional optimization business, which will be around Brazi and about Petrobrazi. Also in the energy transition, we've already FID-ed the spend for the new aromatics unit, and then also looking at potential new renewable power projects as well as biofuels, advanced ethanol and HVO and SAF on the project side.
I think, it's a combination of we've got some turnaround activity going on, but actually a lot about our strategy in action overall. Maybe I hand to Alina for free cash flow before dividends, as well as special dividends.
Yes.
Hello, Oleg, also from my side. On the free cash flow before dividends, you know, we have an integrated business model which gives us strength, and we are able to adapt depending on how markets evolve and so on. Now that we have quite a clear understanding also on the regulatory situation, we will adapt our business. Based on our planning assumption, we see and we believe we will be on a free cash flow positive before dividends secondly. With regards to special dividend, unfortunately, I cannot give any reference at this moment. We will announce this to the market mid of the year.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Daniela Mândru from Swiss Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hello, everybody. I have several questions.
One of them is kind of follow-up regarding the CapEx. Can you detail or can you say to us what is the amount allocated for Neptun Deep explicitly? The other question regards the offshore production. Can you give us an absolute amount of a percentage of production? The third one refers to the deep onshore. Please let us know if you clarified with the authorities, the number of fields that qualifies as deep onshore and so does for lower taxation. The fourth question relates to power sales. From my understanding is that you also sell third parties power. Can you tell us what is the amount of power sold forward from third parties?
Okay. Thank you, Daniela, and thank you also for joining us. I'll start quickly with the CapEx one, just as a continuation. The Neptun Deep amount that we have set aside is RON 600 million for Neptun Deep on the basis of an FID in the middle of 2023. Maybe Alina can just do the clarification with regards to the deep onshore 'cause we're in discussions-
Yes.
with the government on that.
On the deep onshore we, our conclusion so far is that we will not see or have a deep onshore field which will qualify for the new offshore law. That's our conclusion so far, based on the analysis done, on our, on all of our fields, in here.
Maybe just for a quick answer, is on the offshore production. I think Chris was just.
Mm-hmm.
saying it's about 20% of our production.
Yeah.
is roughly offshore. Franck, with regards to power sales?
Yeah, for, I don't know for which period you are mentioning, what we are on top of the sale of products that we are performing, as we discussed before, we are also developing like in gas, some trading of power. Not at the same level in term of volume, of course for price is much higher. It was less than 1 TWh this year, we expect to double this year. We're expecting to have a better revenue on sales coming from this activity and mainly outside of Romania.
Okay. Thank you. Regarding, I'm not sure if you commented on this, the offshore production. Yes, we have this indication, 25% of the production, but meantime the production declined a lot. What is now the offshore production? What was last year, for example?
Fifth was around 30%.
30%. 30. Yes. Okay.
Twenty.
Thank you. 2020.
20, yeah.
Two zero. Okay. May I dare another question. Regarding can you give us, because yes, with this impairment you announced also some production increases, okay. Can you give us an indication for the OpEx this year and, for the next two years to 2024, 2025? Should be above $30 per barrels or more?
The OpEx for, 2023, what we have, planned is, RON 15.
Fifteen.
For the following year. 15 for the two following years, we are hovering around 16.
Okay. I have another question regarding
The last question then I'm on finance.
This is the last question. May I address it?
Yes, please. Please. Yes.
Yeah. Okay. Regarding the production, out of this last year production, how much decline, how much is the decline through for from divestments? Because I have some data, but I want to be clear on this.
Last year, no, last year we didn't do any divestments. You know, the last divestment was done in end of 2021. It's the 45th. Last year we didn't do anything.
Last year we didn't have any divestments, anything. It's the natural decline of last year?
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you a lot.
Thank you. We will take our next question. You have a follow-up question from the line of Iuliana Ciopraga from Wood & Company. Please go ahead.
Hi. Regarding production decline for 2023, this is faster than what I expected based on the 2021 strategy. I was wondering, do you still see achievable a decrease in the decline rate in the medium term, as you were expecting that strategy? Considering also the impairments that you've made. If you can clarify a bit on the decline rate for gas and oil in 2023.
I think Chris had mentioned earlier that actually, we had originally signaled about a 3% decline rate, and now that was actually changing to a 6% decline rate in the early time. Iuliana, yes, you're correct that he had mentioned that.
The 6% would be starting 2025? I mean, starting 2025, you basically decline around 6% per year.
2022 . 2022 .
Five.
To 2025.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. In strategy, you included some numbers for 2030. I mean, if we deduct Neptune from the 2030 numbers, production would have been around 90, right? 1,000 bbl per day. Is that still valid or not really?
Iuliana, because this is the reason why we book the impairment, because we revised our production decline rate...
Mm-hmm.
-from 3% in average to 6%. Yeah. This triggers in cooperation also with an increase in operating costs. This triggers the impairment, yeah. This was the reason. The production-
It's 6%, the average rate from 2022 to 2030?
We only communicate until 25, yeah. 2022 to 2025 is approximately 6%. We do not give further information. It's a bit more complex in the second part of the decade.
Okay. If you can comment a bit on the split between gas and oil, what should we expect?
The oil, long term, of course, let's say is traditional. The gas will still be a bit more. Right now we are around 52% on the gas side and this will of course increase the impact, when Neptun Deep comes on stream, heavily on the gas, on the gas side.
Thank you.
If there are no more questions, we would like to thank you for taking part in our conference call. For further information, please do not hesitate to contact the investor relations team. Until our next call, wish you all the best. Thank you.
Thank you. Bye.
Thank you. Bye.
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.