Cogna Educação S.A. (BVMF:COGN3)
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Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM GMT-3
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 24, 2023

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Cogna's conference call on the earnings in the 4Q, 2022. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during Cogna's presentation. We'll start the Q&A shortly after that, and at that time, further instructions will be provided. If you need any assistance during the conference, please ask for assistance from the operator by pressing star zero. This event is also being broadcast simultaneously via the Internet in a webcast. It can be accessed in the address webcastlite.ms-iq.com, where you will also find the presentation. Slides will be controlled by you. The replay of this event is going to be available shortly after it's closed.

We would like to inform you that the webcast participants can also submit questions to Cogna, and they will be answered after the conference by the IR officers. Before proceeding, we would like to let you know that any statements that can be made during this conference call relative to the business outlook of Cogna, projections, operating targets, and financial targets are based on the company's beliefs and premises, as well as information currently available. Future considerations are no guarantee of performance as they involve risks, uncertainties, and premises, and as such, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that general conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors may affect Cogna's outlook and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such future considerations.

Now, I would like to turn the floor over to Mr. Roberto Valério, CEO of Cogna, who will begin the presentation. Please, you may proceed, sir.

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in today's conference call to talk about our results in the Q4 2022. Today with me, well, Frederico Villa, our Financial VP, Mário Ghio, Vasta CEO, Guilherme Mélega, current CEO and future CEO at Vasta, and Eduardo Gonzaga, our IRO and CFO. Let me remind you today's call will last 1 hour, 40 minutes of our presentation, and then we will have approximately 20 minutes for Q&A. Let me begin today's meeting highlighting that we are happy with our results of 2022 and also with the results of Q4 2022. It was a turning point for many of our result lines. That already began in Q3, but now we see the annual consolidated numbers, not only Cogna, but most of our business units, Kroton and Vasta, have grown revenue, EBITDA margin, and cash generation.

In the 4Q 2022, this is our seventh quarter in a row where we've improved revenue and net income despite the challenging environment, inflationary pressure, and the fact that we had the consequences of the pandemic, especially in Kroton. Let's move on to slide 3 for some highlights. Net revenue growth was 12.6% in Q4. We had already grown 11.7% in Q3. Not only are we growing, but we are growing faster comparing the 4Q to the 3Q. The trend is consistent improvement in the future. In the year, Kroton had a growth of 3.6% in revenue, anticipating the results we expected for 2023.

I mean, we had already talked about better profitability and better cash generation in Kroton, we expected to have revenue growth only in 2023. With a better intake, we have this performance earlier. Marketing expenses, although we are already a benchmark in terms of the cost to gain students, however, marketing expenses continued to gain efficiency as well as our provisions for doubtful accounts, showing the quality of our customer base after the restructuring. Recovering EBITDA grows 9.6% in the year with a gain of 1.6 percentage points in the margin. Further on, we will look into this number. Student dropout. I mean, despite our consistent growth and bigger intake in the last trade cycles, the dropout remains stable.

We have more freshmen, so there's pressure for dropout, but the dropout remains the same, which shows the quality of our teamwork. Higher intake and stable dropout leads to a growth in student base. Third quarter in a row, growing student base. We've grown 11.5% student base in 2022. KrotonMed, our carve-out that has been a highlight in all our conversations with the market. KrotonMed has overcome our plans in net revenue and recurring EBITDA. That is, KrotonMed is one of our avenues of growth. As we have surpassed the guidance, it shows we are right and the execution is well done. Now Vasta. Vasta had excellent results. Our net revenue grew 33%, showing the strength of the recovery in this business unit. In the quarter, we've grown almost 27%.

We are confident that our ACV guidance, which is, you know, 20% growth in 2023, is perfectly feasible as we look at the last quarter last year and the first quarter this year. We are on the right track. Net revenue from subscription, which adds value and has a higher quality of revenue for us. I mean, it brings resilience, predictability. It already accounts for 88% of our total net revenue. Let me highlight, complementary solutions have grown more than 60% in Q4 '22. This is thanks to high-quality work sustained by three pillars: expansion of complementary solutions, migration to subscription products, and in addition, the team has been able to do upsell of educational systems. Schools are migrating to more premium educational systems.

Recurring EBITDA has grown 113% in the year, and in the fourth Q, 27%. That's an excellent result. Talking about Cogna, I've already mentioned that we believe we have had a turning point. I mean, in 2022, we began a restructuring, and it was executed excellently according to the plan. In 2022, we are closing this cycle. The restructuring has been completed, Cogna is now in a different phase beginning in 2023. Net revenue growth was 6.6% in 2022. Let me highlight the top quality of this revenue. I mean, when you look at that, if you look at our PDA, it's coming down because we feel confident that we will be able to receive our revenue.

Vasta has more revenue coming from subscription, that brings a higher quality of our revenue. Recovering EBITDA at Cogna has grown 15.8% in the year, and we've gained 2.3 percentage points margin in the year. Now, operating cash generation has grown 9.4% in the year, reaching BRL 540 million despite two effects, and let me talk about each one of them. The first was an EBITDA reduction and also cash generation reduction at Saber if we compare 2022 to 2021, and this is only the natural seasonal effect of the business. We already expected less cash and less EBITDA, in addition, in the 4Q 2022, we did not receive part of the National Textbook Program, we received it in January and February. if we...

I mean, of course, you cannot do this because the year ended, but if the government had paid in December, our cash generation would be very close to BRL 600 million because the National Textbook Program receivable was BRL 60 million. Again, it is a relevant growth, although what you see in our numbers is BRL 54 million. Now, leverage. I believe the team has done great work in terms of liability management. I'll talk further about that. Above all, we feel confident in terms of cash generation in the company. In 2023, this cash generation is going to be enough, not only for us to pay for all the debt, but also for us to amortize the debt we have with payments due in 2023. What do I mean by that?

Well, we don't need any additional funding to be able to pay for all our liability in 2023. To my view, this is an excellent scenario. Now let's move on to slide 5, where we're gonna talk about Kroton. The first highlight, our student base in undergraduate students has grown for the third quarter in a row. We are growing on both segments, in high on-site attendance and also in low on-site attendance. Also low on-site attendance still have laboratories on site. Both segments are growing, but while the growth is sustained by a number of different actions, but basically the expansion in our learning centers, new programs, and new intake channels. We have been highly creative to include new student intake channels.

I've already mentioned, but let me highlight dropout rate in undergraduate on both low on-site attendance and high on-site attendance, we have stable dropout rates. Those of you who study this industry, when you have such a high growth, it is only natural for the dropout rate to grow. Not in our case, because our intake is top quality, we can see new enrollments of high quality, and also enrollment renewals has improved processes. Therefore, we have more out-of-pocket students as well, which helps us have a lower dropout rate. Now, something that I wanted to highlight, graduate programs grew 19%. It's not included in the slide, but this is the growth, 19% in 2022. Not only in undergraduate, but also graduate programs, we're growing. Actually, graduate programs is growing faster than undergraduate.

On slide six, we can see our productivity increase by campus, by campus. When we began the restructuring in 2020, we now have 112 units. That is 64 units fewer, or 40% units fewer. I've already said this, it does not mean that we're no longer operating on these locations. We continue to operate on these locations, but we are now a more asset-light company. Some of these students have moved to partner centers. Usually other centers, other learning centers that are our partners. We keep these students, but we have reduced our fixed cost. Our partners are highly professional, so they can absorb this operation. My final highlight here is that as we turned from 2022 to 2023, we've closed another 12 operations of our own units, and that brings great benefits to us.

In 2023 we have fewer units, therefore a lower cost, lower CapEx investment, lower infrastructure cost, which will bring results in 2023. Our 4Q of 2020, we had 1,450 students of high on-campus attendance, and now we have more than 2,000 students. That is the number of students have grown 38.6%. It does not impact EBITDA, but when you talk about cash generation, now that we have fewer units, it means we have fewer rental expenses. With the high inflation, this is important for us to manage our cost. I have said this, some units we would like to have closed earlier, but we had long-term contracts, and we had fines to pay if we had terminated the contracts earlier.

As these contracts expire, we begin to rationalize the number of learning centers. Slide seven, talking about average ticket. Let me highlight that our strategy focuses on revenue growth. Let me remind you that our operation is increasingly more digital. We have great operational leverage because with digital operation, our variable cost structure is much lower. For each new student on the base, what you add in terms of additional cost is very little. Of course, the average ticket is important, but more important than the average ticket is for us to make sure that the revenue is growing, and if we have operational leverage, then we have gains with this strategy. To explain here, you have both blocks, high attendance and low attendance.

Average ticket of high attendance has grown 4% as a result of our strategy to focus on this cost, especially on high attendance. You can see this in the average ticket. It's not in the chart, but it's in the release. The average ticket for high-attendance students, out-of-pocket students, has grown more than 12%. Because we have fewer FIES or PEP students, then this has a bigger impact. The students that we are now focusing, you know, with fewer FIES, and as we do not offer PEP. Out of pocket average ticket is growing 12%. When you look at the whole mix, your average growth only 4%, right? From BRL 756 to BRL 786. In the future, we'll have more out-of-pocket students and fewer FIES and PEP.

In low attendance, we've grown also, you can see the direct reflection on revenues. Our revenue's grown more than 10%. Just to give you a reference in the number of students, despite students have grown, the number of students have grown 5.8%. Out of pocket have grown 12%, FIES and PEP have declined. All of that helps us attain this excellent result. Now looking at low attendance, the average ticket has fallen 8.6%, as I mentioned, from BRL 212 to BRL 194. In low attendance, we have two different types of students. The premium distance learning, he comes to our center once a week, and the other segment is 100% digital.

In the last few years, the 100% digital portfolio has grown. It's gaining more share in our mix. This is not really a reduction of average tickets because it's not comparable. You cannot compare students who are premium distance learning to those students who are 100% virtual. Now that we have more students 100% online, that is why you see this effect on the average ticket. Our strategy has always been the same, grow revenue. Despite a lower ticket, the number of students has grown more than 15%. It translates into a 5.5% revenue. The revenue is up 5.5%. The cost only had a marginal increase. A good portion of this revenue is translated into EBITDA and net income. Slide number 8 to talk about revenue.

Kroton's net revenue grew 12.6% in Q4. After a number of quarters where our revenue was down because of our restructuring efforts, we are now in the second quarter where revenue is growing, which makes us really happy. We believe we'll continue to have revenue growth in 2023. The last time we had revenue growth was in 2018. It really shows we have passed our turning point. In slide nine, we talk about cost. The first chart with the gray background, I'd like to highlight that at the first bar, direct cost, that you get. Despite we've grown a number of students, the revenue has grown as well. The cost remains practically stable. As a portion of revenue, it's falling. That's really positive because we are gaining margin.

This slide is showing that because we have more distance learning and because the marginal additional cost for each additional student is very small, that is why we've had this improvement in Q4. We've had improvement in the gross margin because of this dilution. This is what we call operational leverage. A comparison year-on-year. Despite inflation pressure, our total direct cost has remained stable, 21.1% compared to 21.28%, I'm sorry, of our revenue. Corporate expenses, operating expenses, selling, marketing expenses in PDA, we've actually gained a few margin points. That's why our EBITDA has grown. Final highlight, talking about operating expense. We've had a 1.9 percentage point increase in operating expenses. This is where we have, you know, cleaning, electricity. It reflects that we are having more operations in our centers.

In the next slide, we talk about the recurring EBITDA that has grown in the quarter and also in the year in 2022, and 9.6% with a margin gain of 1.6 percentage points. In slide 11, we talk about the quality of our revenue, the quality of our AR, or accounts receivable, average collection period or ACP. We began our restructuring in the fourth Q of 2020. Our ACV were 78 days. Today, 54 days. That's the average collection period, 54 days. This is a great improvement. It's important to say that the coverage ratio remains stable, 68.8%.

In terms of a percentage of our net revenue, in 2021, PDA represented 15%, and this year, 12.2%, as I mentioned a few slides ago. KrotonMed. We're very happy with the results with our medical programs. This is a carve-out from Kroton that has, you know, increasingly more independence from Kroton. We had a guidance for revenue and EBITDA. We have surpassed both. We have 580 medical seats and a number of organic seats that will be our organic growth in terms of seats. Let me now give the floor to Mario Ghio, Vasta CEO. He'll talk about Vasta.

Mario Ghio
CEO, Vasta

Thank you very much. This is a very special call for me because I'm retiring next. I would like to start on slide 14, in which we'll discuss net revenue in the 4Q 2022. Just to remind you know, the 4Q in a year is always the 1Q in the new trade cycle of all subscription products. The non-subscription products follow their own cycle, but with subscription products, this is always the beginning of a new cycle. In 4Q 2022, revenue increased almost 27%, reaching a little above BRL 100 million. It's very important to highlight again what Roberto Valério said. Our complementary solutions revenue grew more than 60%, which demonstrates the company's ability to penetrate and introduce new products that complement the hourly-based products that we offer.

On the next slide, turning to recurring EBITDA. We reached almost BRL 200 million last year. This was basically flat in comparison to the previous year. In this margin, we have to account a judicial reorganization that, as you know, is taking place. This was an extraordinary event. When we look at the whole year, we can see the result of all efforts that we used to improve our EBITDA and margin, reaching a number above 27% and a margin that is almost twice as much as in 2021, even though the margin in 2021 also showed the effects of the pandemic. In slide 16, I would like to say a few words about this gain in margins. Where did it come from?

Starting with the fact that the consolidated revenue for 2022 was more than 33% higher than in 2021, our costs and expenses grew far below that at 17%. To focus on the second chart in the slide, because in the comparison 4Q 2021 to 4Q 2022, we see the impact of the judicial reorganization. It's very important that we focus on the right side of the slide where we have clustered all the major costs and expenses. There were reductions everywhere in corporate expenses and operating expenses. The percentage was -2.1% in fact. The PDA went up. Owing to the judicial reorganization, the bankruptcy and this took place while we were still crunching the numbers, we decided to provision 100% of the amount.

Excluding this effect, our PDA would be at approximately 4%. This has shown a decrease. It was over 4%. Excluding this extraordinary event that I mentioned, it would be at 2.4%. We are indeed moving closer to our traditional PDA below 2% in general. Our selling and marketing expenses dropped together with other operating expenses. This is what enabled us to secure the margins improvements that we discussed in the previous slide. Moving on to slide 17. I think that the key message here is that we are reaffirming and that ACV grew 20% in the comparison with 2022. In this slide, we just wanted to give you a little more color on how this revenue will be recognized every quarter.

Underscoring that this is ACV revenue, that is subscription revenue. In 4Q 2022, we recognized ACV slightly at a higher level than ACV 2021. There will always be small variations because the academic calendar is never the same as in the previous year because of the holidays such as Carnival and the ENEM exam date as well. In terms of orders of magnitude and percentages, they are very similar. Since ACV is a given and we recognize more ACV in 4Q 2022, we expect that in proportion, we'll recognize less than we did in 1Q 2022. On the lower half of the slide, you can see a range of revenue expectations for the 1st semester, just to show you, and reinforcing that we are feeling very confident that ACV and the guidance will be met.

With this, I close my presentation. Later, of course, I'll be available for your questions. Let me take this opportunity to thank my colleagues here, market analysts and all of our investors who are listening to us for all of the support throughout these years. Thank you.

Frederico Villa
CFO and Financial VP, Cogna Educação

Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Gil. I would like to start the presentation focusing on Saber. Saber comprehends the National Textbook Program business together with other lines. Starting on slide 19, in which we have the financial highlights, net revenue in the quarter showed a reduction of 3.6%. Year-to-date, 18.9%. This was a natural effect reflecting the seasonality of our business. It's important to mention that in the year, the other Saber business units that are not subject to seasonality grew their net revenue in approximately 30% collectively.

Now going to recurring EBITDA, the effect of net revenue, of course, also has an impact on the EBITDA. Recurring EBITDA in the quarter presented a reduction of 7.7%, and year-to-date a decrease of 41.9% approximately. As a result, the EBITDA for 2022 reached BRL 100 billion. This decrease was caused by the seasonality of the National Textbook Program, national program and the historical fact. Also considering seasonality, we have now a more favorable calendar for larger purchases with higher tickets, and this will drive growth for next year. Now, turning to the conclusions on Cogna that Mário Ghio, Gil and Roberto Valério have talked about the effects in cost and revenue. I would like to recap net revenue and recurring EBITDA starting in slide 21.

This was a year with accumulated growth of revenue of 6.6%. It's an inflection point in revenue thanks to the excellent results obtained by Kroton and Vasta. They offset the seasonal impact. Besides reaching this growth level of 6.6% in the year, in the quarter we closed the 4Q growing approximately 13.2% at BRL 1.6 billion. Now, to close, in the end of 2022, we had EBITDA of BRL 1.46 billion and margins, EBITDA margin of 28.7%, up 3 percentage points in margin and in monetary terms of BRL 200 million. This is something that we witnessed in the quarter too, growth of 3% in margins.

As such, our business both in Kroton and Vasta have led Cogna to see this growth both in EBITDA and net revenue. Moving on to the following slide, 21. Our operating cash generation in the 4Q showed a slight reduction. Since in the opening, Roberto Valério mentioned that there is a mismatch in the fact that the National Textbook Program of approximately BRL 600 million was not received, but it was received only in January and February 2023. Year-to-date. operating cash generation was positive at BRL 540 million, up 94.4%. What can explain this? Firstly, better collection at Kroton, better delinquency behavior and reduction of marketing expenses. Growth of BRL 183 million in Vasta's recurring EBITDA offset the reduction in Saber's EBITDA, as we have seen.

Now speaking of operating cash generation, moving to slide 23, let's take a look at leverage and debt. In the last five quarters, in spite of the hike in interest rates, we started from, you know, with an average rate of 44%. Now we're closing the year at almost 12%. In December, interest rate reached 13.75%. We maintained our leverage at a stable level. In the 4Q, we closed the quarter at 2.1 x net debt over Adjusted EBITDA, which is the formula we use to measure our leverage. The average cost for new funding at the chart below is now at 2.15%. In 2021 and 2022, we implemented several liability management activities because leverage is something that matters to us, and all of our authors are very interested in that.

Mario Ghio
CEO, Vasta

The strong operating cash generation that we have seen throughout 2022 will be reinforced in 2023, making the company deleverage naturally. Now on cash position and debt. In December 2022, we closed the year with gross debt of BRL 5,462 million and BRL 2,132 million in cash and net debt of BRL 3,333 million. The reduction amounted to 20% and 23.5% versus 4Q 2021. We also engaged in liability management to ensure that our amortization schedule will be met. From the first to the third quarter, we lengthened the debt profile by using our banks. We raised BRL 500 million at an interest rate of 2.15%.

Also in January, we also had an extension of BRL 500 million in debt to be paid off in 96 months. As we can see in the chart below, the amortization schedule starts with a cash position of BRL 2.1 billion in August 2023. We have to amortize our debentures at BRL 1.062 billion. In January, we have already repurchased BRL 1 million in debentures. They were being traded below par, and they mature in August. All of this generated BRL 10 million for us as in a very opportunistic way. All actions have been taken, and our robust programs enable us to reduce our debt with no need for taking other loans in 2023. With this, I close Cogna's presentation, and I turn it over to Roberto Valerio.

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Thank you. Let's move on to slide 25. I wanna talk about ESG. We continue to focus on ESG. Let me remind you, we are the first Brazilian educational company to launch public goals. We are leading the industry. We launched 14 goals in 2014 in an effort to accelerate our agenda for a better world. I'm not going to give you details in each one of the 14 goals, but I think the important message here is that we have been able to attain 2022 goals. We launched the program, and this was the first part of this long-term effort. We delivered excellent results in all 14 goals that we have committed to. One of them that I want to highlight is diversity.

We want to have equal number of men and women in top positions, so we're increasing the number of women leaders. Only last night we got this award. Our company was recognized as one of the best companies for women to work in Brazil. This is a ranking of hundreds of companies, and we ranked number 28 as the best Brazilian companies for women to work. We feel proud. This was only last night, so we still can feel the thrill. This is news. Now let me move on to the next slide, so you can look at our frameworks in ESG. We comply with most of the main frameworks. We have voluntary commitments with a number of partners, including the UN SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals.

We received a certification as a Great Place to Work, that's in terms of recognition and certifications. We believe this is really important to take the company where we want that company to be. When you look at ratings and indexes, we lead all of the ratings, Sustainalytics, the S&P Global, Refinitiv, which is another important index in the educational industry where we also rank as leaders. We are the only educational company in Brazil that's part of the ISE, the Brazilian B3 Stock Exchange Sustainability Index. Today we're also part of the CO2 index and the IGPTW index in this Brazilian stock exchange or B3. Let's move on to our last slide for the final considerations in this call by segment. First, Kroton, we have a positive outlook for the first half 2023 intake cycle.

Frederico Villa
CFO and Financial VP, Cogna Educação

We will have a growth in our student base, revenue will also grow. We had this reduction of 12 own units, also initiatives for productivity gains, good management of direct costs. As you've seen, the unification of national brands. We tried to unify our national brand, moving from Kroton to Anhanguera. We are in no hurry, we are now orienting our efforts to this brand, which is going to bring us synergy gains and more efficiency. We've also improved on-time payments, again, all of this will sustain our EBITDA margin improvement and also a healthier operating cash generation. Let me highlight CapEx, the investment we have made. As a share of net income, it remains stable. We expect that to remain stable in 2023, we're focusing on technology and digital transformation.

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

As you know, we want to improve our students' experience and the productivity of our teams, which will bring more productivity in the medium term. On Vasta, we've been able to deliver our BRL 1 billion guidance. This is a very clear result which reinforces our optimism in this segment. Recovering EBITDAs grew 113% in 2022, also with margin gains. We believe this strategy, if we can continue to execute this strategy consistently, it will help us again in 2023. As Ghio mentioned, the trade cycle has started really strong, which means we feel confident we will deliver the guidance. Cogna, we have finished a restructuring initiative, so we will now turn the page. We are past our inflection point with growth.

Mario Ghio
CEO, Vasta

Of course, we will continue to focus on the execution of core operations, you know, large operations, Kroton, Vasta, Saber, more and more, we focus on new opportunities for growth in education, which, as you know, do not mature in only a few quarters. These are long-term initiatives. Of course, we have to take the first step, and the company is now concentrating efforts on new opportunities and new initiatives. In terms of cash generation, we posted BRL 540 million in the year, which means our leverage has remained stable. If we had received the payment of the National Textbook Program in 2022, then we would have reached BRL 600 million, which would be a significant result compared to 2021.

Anyway, now, because we are confident we have turned the page and that the company will show a growth in cash generation in 2023, our initiatives in liability management, not only the ones we have implemented, but the ones we will still be implementing, will help us be able to have a balanced level of liquidity and lower financial expenses. With that, I think we can conclude our presentation. Let me open the floor for questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll start now our Q&A. To ask a question, please press star one. If your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the list by pressing star two. Our first question is from Luca Marchesini, Itaú BBA.

Luca Marchesini
Sell-Side Analyst, Itaú BBA

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions. We have two, in fact. In relation to the intake in the first quarter and how do you view the competitive scenario, especially in low on-site attendance? We have seen some more aggressive players. Also in relation to marketing expenses, I think that, you know, it was an expressive result in relation to the net revenue of 22, and also we have the migration to marketing, digital marketing. You believe that there is more space for growth along this avenue?

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Hello, Luca. Thank you very much for your questions.

Student intake cycle. We are optimistic about the cycle. The results are very much in line with our budget. Of course, you're not familiar with our budget, but we are expecting revenue growth for the year. In the third and 4Q, we grew. Our expectation is that we'll continue growing throughout 2023. It's a positive outlook. To give you a little color, in February and March, results were a little flatter than the previous quarters. I think this is, you know, probably a macroeconomic effect, but we are looking at the cycle in a very positive light, and we'll be announcing this together. We still have 4 days to take on more students until the end of April. In relation to marketing expenses, we were able to optimize them thanks to the efforts of our team. They are very creative in diversifying intake channels.

We identify opportunities for improvement. As I said in previous calls, we are efficient enough and we know that the cost of acquisitions is, you know, in our business is something that's very efficient. We believe that we'll spend a little more in marketing, but later in the year. We're saying that we are willing to spend a little more in marketing, but seeking efficiencies to try to strike a balance. There's still a lot to happen in Brazil, not only affecting our industry, but the final answer is, of course, yes, there are opportunities to improve our marketing efficiency. You know, if you invest in marketing and the results come, this is always positive because it will help us with our medium-term growth goals. Thank you.

Luca Marchesini
Sell-Side Analyst, Itaú BBA

Thank you. Very clear, Valerio. Our next question is from Marcelo Santos, JPMorgan.

Marcelo Santos
Sell-side Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning, Valério and Ghio. Thank you for answering my question. Well, the first question I have is about Kroton's margins. What should we expect? What are the elements that will influence the margins in the comparison 2022, 2023? Since you were talking about the company's consolidated CapEx, do you want to fuel your growth with revenue? I just wanted to clarify what we can expect in terms of CapEx for 2023.

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Hello, Marcelo. Thank you. Well, in relation to Kroton's margins, it's no secret that we are managing these drivers for a while. There are some opportunities in direct costs. Why? Because as we grow our distance learning student base, it has variable costs and proportionally much lower than growth revenue. We believe that we have a chance of leaving indirect costs by investing in DL.

Thinking of our corporate expenses, we also detect some opportunities, not too many because our results are very reasonable. In relation to CapEx, I think the point here is the net revenue percentage. This stability is including in the long-term model. As we gain more efficiency and thanks to our investments in technology, we will close the gap in time. In fact, we don't expect net revenue to grow, but in absolute terms we'll manage as needed. After we finish the investments in technology, such as BTK, today we have some work being done in the legacy systems, but we are building an entirely new one. CapEx is really accelerating because we have to sustain these two development projects. I hope I was clear in my answer, Marcelo.

Marcelo Santos
Sell-side Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lucas Nagano from the Morgan Stanley.

Lucas Nagano
Equity Research Associate, Morgan Stanley

Hello. Good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. We have two questions on our side. The first one about Kroton margin in Q4. Although the margin improved during the year, we could see an effect related to G&A in this quarter. We'd like to know a bit more about that. About infrastructure. In this quarter, you shut down 12 units. I'd like to know a bit more about the strategy. Are you going to continue to shut down units next year, looking at the prospects and the current scenario? If FIES would come back, do you believe you could still have more students with a high on-campus attendance if FIES would come back?

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Lucas? Lucas, I was not able to hear your question. I heard the first one about Kroton margin in Q4. This one I understood. Your second question, I was not able to hear that. Can you repeat, please?

Lucas Nagano
Equity Research Associate, Morgan Stanley

Yes. The reason why you have reduced your own units, are you going to continue to reduce units in the future?

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Yes. All right. About your question on Kroton margin. Kroton margin in Q4 increases because of a higher on-campus attendance. We have higher operating expenses. You know, these are expenses related to electricity bill, security agents, you know, all of these costs related to on-campus activities. They had a bigger impact in Q3 and Q4. About the reduction of units, I would say the following: Our restructuring has ended. Our long-term strategy continues, and it focuses on more digital programs and hybrid programs.

When we have more students on digital and the rental agreements expire in places where we believe we don't need a big campus, we can migrate to a smaller campus, or we can migrate to a partner campus. We will be doing that, but not as much. Not as much as we did in 2021, and also not as much as we did in 2022. I mean, fewer than 12 units. If we are to reduce more units, it will be more in units, not in tens of units.

Lucas Nagano
Equity Research Associate, Morgan Stanley

Another question, you know. If FIES would come back, can you still accept more students for high on-campus content?

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Yes, Lucas. Yes, because our occupation rate is about 50% in our centers, in our schools. I mean, that is assuming that FIES will be only for high-attendance students.

You know, we always make these decisions thinking about a potential growth. We always factor in a possible comeback of the FIES program.

Lucas Nagano
Equity Research Associate, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you, Valerio.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jan Sisking from BTG Pactual.

Jan Sisking
Managing Director, BTG Pactual

Good morning, Valerio. Good morning, everyone. I have two questions on my side. The first is a follow-up on the first question, talking about the first trade cycle of 2023. I'd like to hear more about that. What is the rationale behind pricing? Talking to your peers, we could see a more conservative pricing policy, both for higher on-campus content and also for more digital programs. Also talk about the effect on your student mix if you are also considering more rationalization in terms of pricing. This is the first question. The second question is about the National Textbook Program calendar.

In 2023, the calendar seems to be more favorable. Please let me know when you begin sales for the 2023 National Textbook Program. Maybe in the first quarter or in the first half of the year, what would you expect? Thank you.

Frederico Villa
CFO and Financial VP, Cogna Educação

Hello, Jan. Thank you for your questions. About intake, student intake at Kroton, I agree with your comment. Yes, other players are, you know, having perhaps more rational pricing. The prices are more stable. If you look at our trade cycle, the tickets remain stable on comparative programs, right? Looking at the mix, the average ticket has remained stable, and this is good for the industry. We have already been talking about this topic. I mean, more important than growing volume or growing enrollments, we want to renew, we want to grow revenue.

I also see now that other players are going on the same path. We do see a more rational offering on the market. This is a competitive market, so although there is more rationality, we have a large number of players, and we all face challenges.

About the National Textbook Program. Yes, it does have seasonal effects, as you mentioned, but even the negotiation has seasonal effects. You know, we close sales usually in the second half of the year. Therefore, I do not really have significant expectation to see good numbers in the first half of 2023.

Jan Sisking
Managing Director, BTG Pactual

Okay. Thank you.

Mario Ghio
CEO, Vasta

Hello, Mario. Answering your first question. I'll answer it, and then I'll turn it over, so that it can be explained better. About the premium high on-site attendance. Tickets are stable, both for medical programs and other on-site programs. We have been focusing on high LTV programs, so they tend towards stability in some campy, including, you know, some ticket improvements. It's not as competitive as DL. Medical studies are naturally less competitive, so we can hold on to the prices better. And when we think of high LTV, high on-site content, it's a sector in which we can hold on to our ticket levels as well. This is our expectation also for the second cycle of the year.

Frederico Villa
CFO and Financial VP, Cogna Educação

Thank you very much for the question. While speaking about PDA and stability, and the comparison based on semesters. I think that something that could serve as a good indication for the market is PDA over ROL. This number was 12.5% versus 15.5%. An improvement of 3 percentage points. What we can observe is that today we manage, default, defaulting students, and we don't see really, you know, what we see now is something that actually occurred back in 2021. By looking at the numbers, we don't believe that there was a one-off effect in 2022. What we believe is that since we are constantly tracking default levels, a good target would be to look and have PDA over ROL at above 12%.

This is how we manage our business. 2023 should be no different than what we saw. Very clear. Thank you. Our next question is from Marcelo Santos, JPMorgan. Thank you very much for the follow-up. Just to clarify something that Roberto Valerio said about ticket stability. What do you mean? Well, you mentioned that it's the ticket year-on-year price, or could you please clarify that? Nominal stability, not in real terms. So do you see nominal stability in the medical programs? We believe that it would be higher than inflation. No, in medical, yes, we can go above inflation for sure. I thought that you were just referring to high on-site attendance programs, but definitely with medicine we can outstrip inflation, we can grow more than inflation.

Just as a, as a correction on my comment about CapEx, my answer was based in the long-term model rather than 2023. For 2023, we expect stable CapEx in the comparison 2022 to 2023 in nominal terms, and also as a % of net revenue, it will be smaller. Because we had that different effect, but for 2023 it's nominal stability. I'm sorry for this confusion. I just want to make sure that we're on the same page.

Jan Sisking
Managing Director, BTG Pactual

Yes. Now it's very clear. Thank you. Thank you for this correction.

Frederico Villa
CFO and Financial VP, Cogna Educação

No problem.

Operator

We are now closing our Q&A. I would like now to turn the floor over to Mr. Roberto Valerio for his final remarks. You may proceed, sir.

Roberto Valério
CEO, Cogna Educação

Well, first of all, I would like to thank you all for participating and congratulate the Cogna and Vasta teams for the results attained. Thank you, Gil, for your dedication and your efforts in this 30 years. He will be part of the strategic committee and the board, I thank him very much. We will be happy to take any other questions that we might have at the IR team. We'll see you now next on the first quarter earnings conference call. We are now closing Cogna's conference call. Have a great day, and thank you for using Chorus Call.

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