Good afternoon and welcome to our conference call following the release of our Q3 Interim Management Statement which was sent out after market close yesterday evening. For today we plan for the usual structure of the call. We'll start with the presentation and then we'll proceed with Q&A. On a practical note, the presentation we'll be showing should now be on our website for you to find and we plan for the call to last no more than one hour in total, including the Q&A session. In the room here at our head offices we have our President and CEO Søren Nielsen, our CFO René Schneider, and the IR team with Gustav Høy and myself, Peter Püschel. That is it for the practical stuff. Over to you, Søren, for the presentation.
Thank you very much Peter and welcome everybody. We'll go straight to an agenda for today is business highlights and key financial takeaways, a little bit of color and flavor and update to each of the three business areas, outlook for 2025, and then let's quickly get to the Q & A session. Business highlight for Q3 is a performance all in the lower end of our expectations driven by Hearing Aids, which due to a remaining softer than normal general market and a sequential slowdown in US due to mix effects, have seen a weaker ASP or you would say in the scenarios with a weaker ASP. We have, however, in the hearing aid business seen global Market Share gains and a good momentum in the business. To the softer side.
Organic Growth in the hearing aid business is purely driven by unfavorable geography mix and a still overall soft hearing aid market. Hearing Care have delivered solid growth above the general market growth rate. The performance is broad based despite also having strong comparison figures from last year. The diagnostic business continues to be impacted by a general weak market especially in the US, resulting in lower investments in equipment. The market, you know, the general's appetite on investments and expansions, etc., has put less incentive to do investments. Right now we still see a good order book and still see orders coming in. It is more a reflection of a postponement in October after the quarter. It is still important to mention we launched Oticon Seal at the German Congress.
We have also announced the signing of the agreement to divest Oticon Medical, found the new future owner, and we expect the closing of this part to take place no later than the end of the first quarter 2026, and with that, knowing the final route to a full departure from the Implant Business Area. Key financial takeaways from Q3: group Organic Growth of 3%, which is an improvement from the first half. It is fueled by improvements in both Hearing Aids and Hearing Care, so positive. However, as already stated, we Gross Margin decline coming from the negative ASP effect in Hearing Aids and a continued increased share of Rechargeable Devices. Diagnostics also saw a drag on Gross Margin, so a pure translation from the lower ASP Gross Margin. our OpEx saw modest Organic Growth compared to last year, fully in line with expectations.
Of course acquisition contributes to further growth and we remain very focused on managing cost carefully given the uncertain market. EBIT was in the lower end of our expectations, however still within, driven by Gross Margin contraction. Foreign Exchange Rate also had a negative effect in Q3, but in line with expected and already disclosed, the group continues to generate very solid Cash Flow, particularly partially supported by Working Capital development and a strong focus on that. Of course the outlook for the year 2025 maintained the 1-3% organic revenue growth and DKK 3.9-4.3 billion, however likely to be in the lower end of the range. As announced previously, share buybacks was stopped in June due to the announced acquisition of Kind yet not closed.
We have bought back shares worth DKK 582 million in the year and will not buy further. Business Area Highlights Review. Hearing aid market in total has grown to our best estimates and having statistics for two-thirds around 3%, which is more or less in line with expectations. However, a slight uptake in Europe, a sequential slowdown in US Commercial from 4% - 2%, which is not as expected, and VA on the other hand growing. It seems like some funds for restaffing have been released, which have made it pick up. Rest of the World 4%, so we are still below the normal 4-6%. However, I think it's worth to highlight 3% is still a growing hearing aid market and our fight is then of course for share in that market.
Growth in Europe is primarily driven by strong performance in France, which continued to show strong growth, however primarily in the free to client category. In the U.K., growth was driven by the private market and partly offset by slightly negative growth in the National Health Service. In Germany, growth accelerated sequentially following a slow Q2. It is worth saying that Europe without France would more be in the 2% category level. Underlying Europe is also, I would say, quite below normal, and that is of course also affecting our business. North America saw positive Q3 growth as announced, driven by a certain rebound in VA after a very long period with very low growth. At some stage, again, we would also have to work into the backlog, but still below normal levels.
U.S. commercial slowed down from Q2 while growth accelerated a bit in Canada. Rest of the World delivered growth. It was primarily driven by solid growth in Japan and Australia. China delivered flattish to slightly negative growth. While we estimate that several of the Emerging Markets delivered good growth, we still estimate the ASP to be flat to slightly negative due to Geography and Channel Mix changes. Of course, not the least the unfavorable development between Europe and North America Hearing Aids. In Q3, Organic Growth improved from Q2 and continues to be impacted by the softness in the global hearing aid market. Unit growth was positive and above the estimated 3% market unit growth. We have taken share in third quarter in several countries, not just single call outs. Our ASP was negative due to Geography and some Channel Mix changes.
In Europe, growth was of course fueled by France. We have also positive growth in the U.K. private market and a flattish growth year over year in Germany. I would say in Germany, important to highlight a good strong sequential growth after some pushback after the announced acquisition of Kind. Things seem to normalize, strong performance. In Canada, U.S. growth was positive due to VA and Managed Care but year over year negatively impacted by the effect of additional suppliers to a large U.S. retailer. As spoken to previously, strong growth in Japan, slightly negative growth in China, and strong performance in Australia and Latin America. Again, not to talk in length about Oticon Seal, just to highlight that we did introduce and present to the world a new very novel and innovative product concept, Oticon Seal, at the recent congress in Germany.
It is a new level of performance for in-ear Hearing Aids. It upholds our best and most advanced AI-Driven Signal Processing, full Connectivity, and Rechargeability in a so far unmet discrete design. I would say for most invisible design. It got very good reception and feedback. I'm sure this, even that we cannot make a very fast broad global rollout, will definitely bring more attention to our business and enable a lot of good discussions with customers about business in general. It is a new manufacturing process, totally new, and due to the ramp-up of that, it will be more gradual than normal. We will also see a more gradual commercial rollout where we have selected a number of European Markets to start here in the fourth quarter.
A more broad based global rollout will happen, I would say, in particular during 1H26. Here in care, in Q3, solid performance in a continuous soft market, we generated 9% growth in local currency, of which 4% was organic. So very good, and it's broad based. Of course, also here, France did above average and also Poland, but we also have several medium sized European Markets doing well and delivering solid Organic Growth. In North America, we saw an improvement in performance in the US and a slightly negative development in Canada. We saw solid Organic Growth in Asia and Pacific, mainly driven by China and Australia due to especially improved product mix, meaning more advanced solutions. Growth in Asia was particularly offset by weak performance, or partly offset by weak performance, in Japan. Diagnostic in the third quarter continues to face a headwind from soft market development for instrumentation.
Organic Growth was slightly negative due to declines in key markets in Europe but also part of Pacific and other regions. We did see growth in the U.S. but not to normal and expected level and that's driven by again macroeconomic uncertainty that leads to lower than normal investments in new equipment. We see good growth in our service and consumable business, but however not enough to offset the negative growth on the instrument side. France continued to do well and grow in the quarter, some negative growth in the U.K. and Germany but strong growth in several other European Markets, slightly positive in the U.S., good growth in Canada and then positive Organic Growth, Asia and a number of other Outlook. There are very little changes to the fundamental assumptions. I will only highlight the changes to our expectation in the discontinued business.
We still are in the process of getting out of both communication and implants. We, as I said, announced that we have made an agreement to sell to a new owner, the Oticon Medical business, but as part of that we also have recognized a need to increase the in year 2025 loss in the discontinued business and this was already mentioned in the announcement. This is why this has been updated. Other than that, no changes to tariff assumptions, to exchange rate assumptions, etc. No changes at all and therefore also on the outlook, relatively simple. The only change is that for both Organic Growth and EBIT, as I mentioned earlier, we now expect that we will most likely be in the lower end of the range for both Organic Growth and EBIT, but other than that no changes.
Let's with that go to the Q&A session.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question and answer session. To ask a question you may press star and then one using a touch tone telephone. To withdraw your questions you may press star and two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset prior to pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, press star and then one to join the question queue. We'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. Our first question comes from Jiang Wen from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Hello and thanks for taking my question. I hope you can hear me well. Two questions for me please. The first thing is on Oticon Seal. Can you comment on the uptake of this product? I appreciate this and the ramp, as you said, is not broad based but anything you can comment on how it has been trending against expectations, maybe sharing a few feedback. My second question is on the rec P&L, given pressures on Gross Margin as you travel year in year contraction three, how do you envision getting to the low end guidance from half or what other implements of cost control can you implement in the second half to deliver? Thank you.
Jiang, your line is quite poor, at least on our end. I think we got your first question on uptake of Oticon Seal and then you were asking a bit on the development through the P&L with Gross Margin developments. I'll let Søren answer that and then you can revert with extra questions.
Yeah, thank you very much. We presented the Oticon Seal at the EUHA Congress. A few days later, we made the official launch and released it after, you know, compliance to all quality systems and so on. We are still very, very early days. We can sell what we can produce. That is why we have chosen to introduce in a selected number of countries. We have seen high interest and we can deliver to that interest. We do not yet have any fitting feedback or anything that can confirm our own assumption of good and broad results. It is too early to say anything beyond that, except very good market interest. I think I will leave it to you, René, to comment a little bit on Gross Margin.
Yeah, so with the caveat that we did not get the full question, the pushes and pulls of course are that as a direct consequence of the changed Geography and Channel Mix on the hearing aid business side, we see the impact on the ASP and then subsequently on Gross Margin. therefore, this is why we explicitly guide for Gross Margin that is below our general expectations of 76-77%. The exact, you can say, precision on how much lower it will be depends of course on also the development in the rest of the year and geography. Mixed channel changes there. Yeah, so I will leave it at that and please revert if there are further questions around that.
Thanks, René , and sorry for the line, but how do you think about getting to the EBIT guidance with the pressure Gross Margin? what kind of cost control can you do for the rest of the year?
It is part of the equation of course that we do a cost control and you can say there are across all the items in the P&L various scenarios and there is of course also a scenario where operating expenses in H2 would be lower than in H1. That is also a scenario that is there. All things equal, our guidance is that it is likely to be flattish half year over half year.
The same with Gross Margin, of course, again back to ASP, but which is a very sensitive component in our business due to very different product mix in different channels and pricing. I think it is much more the top line growth and the composition of that determines where in the range we will end.
Our next question comes from Niels Granholm-Leth from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you.
First question on France, you're talking about double-digit growth. One of your peers, Amplifon, talked about 6%. Have you seen an inventory buildup in France during? Second question, on the U.S. commercial channel, your view, what's the reason for the sluggish growth in the U.S. commercial channel? Is it lost purchasing power among end users? Next, geopolitical tension. What's wrong there? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much, Niels. Yes, I've also noted the slight difference in expressing, I think our competitor on the retail space maybe use another source, could be, you know, reimbursement numbers, statistics from the dispenser side. We always report at Wholesale level, so what is to sell into the channel. These things sometimes have a delay. Yes, there can be stock building. There can be people that buy outside reimbursement schemes and other things we see and have, you know, we are tracking well to the double digits. I think it's more a reflection of different sources than it is of whether we are seeing a different world.
On the US commercial, I think that, you know, the US commercial is everything that's not VA, and we have seen, of course, one movement downwards consistently during the year that's been mostly in the Managed Care space. That's, of course, one drag. They are less eligible and so on. There is also what I think we all know has to contribute to consumer sentiment. People are a little more uncertain rather than actually financial impact, that it is easy to postpone your first hearing aid. It is easy to use the one you have a little longer. The reason for believing is that, also back to Europe, that without France, it is in 2%. We have several markets with significant reimbursement, if not free to client, and the effect is more or less the same.
We do attribute it to lack of consumer confidence.
Following up on that. So the patients who stay away, are those first-time buyers or are they the recurring customers?
Yeah, I would say it's both because it is also, you know, the response to calling in patients for, you know, a check and a follow up and see new stuff. It is in both sides. It is also the ability to attract new clients. It's the exact split I cannot say because if one is dragging a bit, you push a bit harder on the other. It is definitely from both sources. Both extension and postponement.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Julian Ouaddour from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you very much. Good afternoon everyone. I have two, but I would like to ask the first one alone first. I know a question has been asked many times. Let me just try again. Looking at the global Hearing Aids market in volume, I think we clearly see some slowdowns versus the historical 4-6% level for quite some time now. Looking at some surveys out, we see that penetration may have slowed or even gone backwards in some key markets. While it gets to a pretty high level in many countries, which could suggest less upside than in the past going forward we have Managed Care, as you said, moving backwards on benefits, maybe new options for the patient with the Hearing Aids glasses.
My question is what do you expect for penetration going forward? Another way of maybe asking the question is whether you could consider revising down the midterm growth outlook for the Hearing Aids market. Just for the record, this is the main question we probably all receive from investors right now. That's why I'm pushing on this. Thanks.
It's fine. Julian and I fully understand. No, I don't see any fundamental changes. The 4-6 is a range because it goes up and down year over year. There is for isolated markets nothing more powerful to penetration than reimbursement. We have just seen a brilliant example of that in France. Of course you would technically see that if there is less support for Managed Care in the US, you will see penetration go down a bit in the US but at a global level, nothing changes. The assumed willingness to pay, the assumed threshold for when you think your hearing loss is big enough to get started. The main tailwind we have over time is extended life expectancy, which is what drives up the pool. Once you have started with Hearing Aids, you're very unlikely not to continue.
That also of course you could say protects the penetration. No, to make a long story short, no, we do not have any changes to our expected mid to long term and most of the additional new products around are all focused on trying to expand penetration for mild hearing losses. That is of course a joker in it. Will it work or will it not? I do not see it as cannibalizing the existing market, so if anything it will add to it and therefore enough up and downs to continue to believe in a 4-6%. It is a little more than the prevalence and a little more than the simple number of people that have turned 65 or even 70.
Therefore there is in this assumption a continuous small uplift to penetration, which is typically driven by increased reimbursement over time, which does happen around the world.
Perfect. Thanks a lot, Søren. My second question is about 2026. I know it's still a little bit early to talk precisely about next year, but I mean, can you maybe talk about the key moving part for next year? I'm looking at consensus. I think it has 5-6% Organic Growth, more than 100 basis points of margin improvement. The question is more, does this scenario need a normalized market growth for you to achieve it? Or maybe with new product share gains, is it realistic for you to get to this point? Thank you.
Maybe I can start a bit and René can supplement, but thank you. No, we do not want to make this call a guidance for 2026, that is for sure. There is of course again as always a long list of things that works for us and against us. Market growth is of course a key one. What is the market growth going to be? I do not think any of us have a crystal ball to predict that exactly. We do not expect an immediate change but of course over time hope and anticipate we will get back to a more normalized growth rate.
It is Market Share gains in the Wholesale space and definitely I would consider 2026 a good year compared to the year we have just been in with a Seal launch coming out most markets and also continued the innovation. We have Kind coming in on top, which will also give scale and Market Share gains to the business, and with that several improvements on leverage Gross Margin, etc. Many good things. There are also currencies the other way and of course continued investment in the business. There are many line items and things that end up determining the. I don't know if you have anything to.
No, it would be a repetition to what. What are the moving parts to think about? It is the market assumption and of course short term we do not have a strong line of sight to improvement in the beginning of the year at least. Apart from that it is, you can say, anybody's guess. Likely you would have still a continued tailwind in France to some extent since there is some distribution of the reform that will also take place next year. Søren mentioned Seal and I would also say other innovation we would continuously launch. That is what we invest in.
We will see a contribution from Kind, the acquisition there, which we are very excited about. Continuously, ethics of course when we go into next year will be a headwind, and lastly, of course, in much smaller scale, tariffs and Diagnostics, you'll have a full year effect of that. That's some of the moving parts, and of course we will get back to it when we, when we talk about formally 2026 next year.
This is super helpful you mentioned. I mean, can we be sure that there is no contribution into the 2025 guidance? That's all for 2026, right?
It's for 2026 exactly.
Okay, perfect.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Martin Brenøe from Nordea. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. Søren and René, first of all maybe just piggybacking a bit on Niels' question on the commercial U.S., can you maybe elaborate a little bit what's going on?
Break it down, what's happening and how much is driven by Managed Care for and how much is driven by something else? That would be the first question, to understand a little bit more what's going on in US commercial, and also if you have seen a continuation into this quarter. Then just on Seal and investing into this product launch, how do you balance the fact that you have this exciting product launch, which seems to be quite a big marketing splash behind it, and the fact that you are in a situation where you are at the very bottom of your guidance range in terms of EBIT? What's most important to you, taking Market Shares or delivering on your EBIT guidance? That would be the second question.
Yeah, thank you, Martin. I don't think I have much I didn't already say when speaking to the US commercial market. Again we are talking, you know, 4%, 2%, 3% so you have to be careful you don't overinterpretate what causes what. I can only again high level highlight Managed Care contraction as well as general consumer sentiment. I simply don't have it more precise than that. We have no statistics yet from first month of Q4, so no comments to that Seal balance. It is of course so important for us as a company to deliver on our guidance and deliver good results. It's also an important part of that to sell some products. We are very conscious about not creating what you call marketing splash in markets that cannot sell anything.
We do enough to create attention to the business, enough to get in dialogue with customers that might not otherwise have enough dialogue with us. We do that to win share also this year. This is of course a careful balance between, you know, share gain within this year, building expectations for next year. We are very focused on that.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Susannah Ludwig from Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Great. Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. I have two please. I guess maybe just focusing back again on the U.S. Market. You guys talked about better performance in Managed Care and the VA and then the weakness in Costco. Could you clarify how your performance versus the market was in the Independent Channel? Do you think you're taking Market Share there as well? Are you able to quantify the headwind on sort of Wholesale from the return to more players in Costco? I guess just on Seal, could you talk about your decision to launch first in European Markets rather than launching in the U.S. Market? Have you chosen markets that have a higher share of ITE Products or what was the rationale behind sort of the launch schedule?
Yes, thank you very much. I think it's, you know, quite simple. All it is is a, you could say, structural change in Costco following the additional supplier. Given that, I think we do quite well in terms of share in the system after the change. When we mention VA, this is driven by, you know, product news and general performance and of course growth in the channel. Managed Care, yes, the general Managed Care market is soft, slightly down. It improved a little bit lately but still negative. Of course, we are very little exposed in that. However, our current performance is gaining share in that channel after bottoming out in the spring and fall of last year.
With the independent, we have, I would say, a very stable to slightly positive development, meaning that we take, you know, some share but very sensitive, of course, month to month exactly where it lands. This is also in all of this is in units, and of course there is also a pricing component to it. There's no doubt there is a quite competitive situation in the general independent market, but we do well, I think, compared to most people's expectations after the many new launches. I would say we definitely, we definitely stand well with the independent in the U.S. Market. Seal Europe vs U.S. is simply too big. We do not want to start a launch in the U.S. and have to run with allocation and selected customers and so on.
We have picked a number of European Markets where the size is at a level where we are sure we can supply to demand back to margins. A good question on efficiency and return on the investment in marketing. We have to make sure we get, you know, a good return in the markets we launch it, meaning significant volume compared to, you could say, the Market Share potential and get a good pickup. That is how we have selected. Then of course Germany, what I would call a soft launch, but you cannot announce it in oil and not release it to customers in the country. That is a little more, not selective, but with a little more constraints on the volume. On the other hand, Germany is not a big India market.
You know, well chosen and to, you know, make sure we can balance demand and production capacity.
Great, thank you.
Our next question comes from Martin Parkhøi from SEB. Please go ahead with your question.
Yes, hello, Martin Parkhøi, SEB. Some of you said it before because I was just on the normal call as well, so maybe I've missed it, but I'll try again anyway. Just on Seal, Søren, can you talk a little about your ambition for which segments of the market you actually believe? Because I'm sure that you're not only going for the CIC market. I'm sure that you maybe also have ambitions outside the ITE category, maybe with the different physical and the technology. Where do we actually see the possibility of Seal gaining and within content?
If you just look at the ITE scale from data and you are more or less non-existent in VA in ITE, where do you see, not a specific number, but you know, are you significantly underrepresented globally in the ITE market compared to your average global Market Share? Then second question. I understand that fuel, of course, as also it would be once we hit the market during next year in the bigger market launch events at the size of a typical new platform launch with a new RITE, and does such market launch events interfere with the timing of a new platform?
Martin, at our end the line was not to go. So bear with me if I don't hit it exactly on the nail compared to your question then come back. What segments do we see ceiling for sure starting with the obvious is already small in-ear products, CICs, IICs. I think it's one level up. Why have RITE products grown a lot in the past five years? The combination of the most advanced technology and given that many people like to have direct streaming from their phone and a rechargeable battery and so on, these products have offered much greater benefit than the average in-ear product have done. We see this as the way to get all benefits back into the ear and exactly how that then plays out with the segments and so on.
I think that's one of the things we want to learn and see and understand. There is a limitation in ear canal and size. Not all ears can host an in-ear product. This is the smallest, I think one of the very smallest you can make. It is not that it is worse than others, but there is just a limitation. Some people feel a level of occlusion, meaning like having an ear plug in. For some others it is not an issue. Depends a little bit on how deep it is. Back to your question. I think of course in-ear products we expect to capture significant share. Why go up in size if you can have it smaller? There will also be some cannibalization from RITE products. There might also be people that choose to start earlier.
Now there is a solution that actually meets their needs, a little bit back to how important cosmetics and design is for maybe especially the still work active, 65-year-old, et cetera, milder hearing, lower, struggling in certain situations. Yeah, I think it is very broad. It is very important not just to look at, and maybe that is a better answer. What you should not just look at. Do not just look at a category for Instant Fit or CIC, IIC, that is in my book way too narrow a potential to look at, and our global share is low. We are strong in building rights. We actually made the first one. It is also, you know, what is the footprint and what is the sand. We are part of the market. There is no doubt that that is one of our competitive strengths.
You could also say the reason why we reinvent the way of doing it is because we have not managed to build success in conventional ITE Products and really believe much more in this way of doing it going forward as it can offer all benefits. The second question was not too loud and clear, but if you ask for future introductions under these new platforms, as always we do not disclose any details on that but Seal is a key focus now but it does not prevent us from introducing other products in 2026.
I just have a follow-up. It's actually another follow-up. It's actually a new question. It's just for René. We, of course, VA pricing, we, of course, most of us at least noted that you have a pretty low price on charters compared to your peers in VA. Can you confirm that? If you should be lucky enough to get that sorted out and get a price on par with peers in the charter category, that that would be a potential contribution in the neighborhood of DKK 75 million-DKK 80 million on sales and EBITDA on an annualized basis.
Yeah, I think I will allow myself to answer. I think there is of course an upside of improved pricing and you know the total market, you know the Market Share, you know the number of rechargeable, you know the price difference. Assuming that the price gap is narrowed significantly, then I think you can all make your math and come to conclusion on what the upside of that is.
Our next question comes from Andjela Bozinovic from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi, good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. The first one may be just on your Wholesale business, you managed to increase Market Share despite having one of the oldest platforms available. Can you maybe just share any details? Where did you see the Market Share gains? If you want to highlight any particular channel or region. Following up on this is you've now launched Oticon Seal, but do you feel like you can still deliver Market Share gains with the current offering in 2026 as well? The second question is just on your implied Q4 because if we put the low end guidance we arrive at a slowdown in Q4. Can you give us any reasons why to assume so and any moving parts that we should have in mind? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much. I think our ability to grow share globally is a testament to the quality of our platform. If I may use Oticon Seal as an illustration, this product is only possible because we have a super power-efficient platform that delivers very, very high audiological performance that has a very power-efficient system that even in a small form factor and a slightly smaller battery, you can still get a full day use and take good care of the battery and the life of the product. We have a very strong power-efficient radio, 2.4 GHz, modern Bluetooth low energy radio, and these things together enable us to make an Oticon Seal. It enables us to make very small new mini BTE, very powerful one without compromising size.
I think it is actually a testament to the quality of the underlying platform and the stability of it, the quality of it, people's, you know, patient satisfaction ultimately. This is why we have been able to year over year and also sequentially improve share. There is not a single one to call out. There is one to call out on the negative side, which is the year over year effect in a large US retailer due to expanded portfolio of manufacturers. You could say excluding that, we definitely have done, I think, well compared to the number of competitive introductions that have been. Then adding Seal and a powerful, very small BTE for more profound or severe to profound hearing losses and also a good launch schedule for next year, yes, I feel comfortable about the ability to gain share in a global market.
The reason why we are not performing at our best is primarily of course that loss of share in that particular channel in the U.S., but then also the global market low end slowdown. I think you should expect, you know, at least what we do, that we see somewhat similar in the fourth quarter to the performance of the third quarter.
The third quarter have performed in the lower end of expectations and you know it's always many scenarios when we build a expectation and also why we have you know 1-3% Organic Growth and DKK 400 million in EBIT is because there is a lot of variables down the line and yeah big picture is expect Q4 to also be I would say in the low end of our expectations but somewhat similar to what we have seen from a growth point of view in the third quarter.
Perfect, thank you. If I can squeeze in just a quick one on France, I know you commented that it's probably statistic that is making the difference between you and Amplifon, but can you just comment on your Market Share in the country since.
The start of the, so it of.
course both come from good performance in our retail activities as well as Wholesale activities.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Our next question comes from Martinien Rula from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi guys, I hope that you can hear me okay and I apologize in advance if the question has already been addressed but the line was really bad on my end so I would ask two if that's okay for you. The first one revolving around Managed Care. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on your share recovery in the channel and any potential contribution that could or could not be baked into the 2025 guide. And how should we think about any potential tailwind going into next year? I'll give you some time to answer this question before asking the second one if that's okay for you and thank you.
You are loud and clear. We are still, as Demant, you could say, underrepresented in Managed Care for structural reasons. One of the biggest administrators is owned by one of our competitors. It would be naive to believe we could get a very high share in their channel. We will always be sub average in that channel. We also do it with a slightly different strategy between our Wholesale Business and our Retail Business. In our U.S. Retail Business, we have come to the conclusion that we are better off trying to build our own traffic and therefore do less to little Managed Care compared to the market. That is working good for the U.S. Retail Business.
On the Wholesale side we are re-establishing, I would say, business relationships with a broad array of the players after the loss of share last year and into the beginning of this year. We see continuous sequential improvements. All in all, for the group performance, it's not that big and therefore not a big weight in the total equation. We are gaining share in the channel to confirm.
Okay, that's perfect. My second question would be around the economics around the Zio Products. I would love to hear your thoughts on the potential margin impact that this could have. Not right now because I understood that you are not ready from a manufacturing capacity standpoint and so on at the moment. Just circling back on one comment that you made at EUHA around the improvements in terms of robustness and reliability stemming from the encapsulation of the body of the device. I was wondering if this product could start to be a tailwind on the margin because I get the point that the product is more reliable, but having only one big piece for the shell of the device could also imply that the device could be less sustainable, that is, more difficult to repair. Any comments around that would be super helpful.
Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts in that equation and I think it's a little too early to give precise guidance. I would still repeat what I said at EUHA. From a cost of goods point of view then, a Seal is less expensive than a custom made in-the-ear product, but it is, at least at current production maturity and efficiency, etc., more expensive than a RITE product. Is it then more or less reliable? It fundamentally has been built to be more reliable because you obviously can't repair to the same extent. You could say the call frequency or service frequency hopefully goes down. On the other hand, those where we can't solve the problem with replacing a wax filter or dome or the filter around the microphone on the antenna would be more expensive.
It's simply too early to call out exactly how that total cost equation through life looks like. We will have to have a bit more experience until we can finalize any more specific guidance on that.
Okay, that's perfect. Thank you very much.
Our final question this morning comes from Niels Granholm-Leth from DNB Carnegie. As a follow-up, please go ahead with your question.
Thank you again. This summer Amplifon called out this five year replacement cycles. In your view, what proportion of units sold in the global hearing aid market would take place in markets where there is a pretty accurate five year replacement cycle?
Yeah, thank you, Niels. I think it is relatively inconsistent if you just take the biggest markets in the world. You know, US is primarily commercial and therefore more in the four year range because that's actually what people tend to do if they pay without reimbursement. You have France, which is four years, so a relatively short cycle. You have Germany in the other end with, for some, you know, insurance companies up to beyond six years. I think the global average of five years is a very fair assumption. It distributes. When you have, whether it's four, five or six years, not everybody shows up.
Day one, when the reimbursement is when you're eligible again, it's actually an important part of our building traffic to remind people that at least they are now eligible for new reimbursement and therefore maybe it's worth making a visit.
Great. And then just finally, do you still expect to announce integration costs related to Kind at the time of the closing?
Yeah, that's still the plan, Niels.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen. With that, we'll be ending today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor over to management for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Thank you so much to everybody for joining our call here today. As always, if you have further questions that we can help you with, please do reach out to us directly. Our contacts can be found online as always. We of course always look forward to seeing you on the road in the coming weeks ahead. Have a good rest of the day. Thank you.