Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our conference call, held in connection with the publication of our interim management statement for Q3 2023, which we released this morning. We'll run through a short presentation, and then we'll switch to Q&A. The presentation has been uploaded to our website. You can find it there, and as usual, we plan for this call to last no more than one hour, including the Q&A session. We are represented by President CEO Søren Nielsen, CFO René Schneider, and then the IR team, Peter Pudsø Lykke and Mathias Holten Møller. I'll now hand it over to you, Søren.
Thank you very much, Mathias, and welcome everybody. The agenda for today is, key events during the third quarter and financial, key takeaways. A few more details on hearing healthcare, communication, walkthrough of the, outlook, and then, open the floor for Q&A. If we look at the key events in third quarter, we continue to see very strong growth in the hearing, aid business, which sustained the market share gains across, markets and channels, and normalized the, hearing aid market. I'll get back to that. Solid performance in hearing care and diagnostics, despite that we see a weaker than expected market dynamics in China. Communication continued to see negative growth as the market for both enterprise and gaming has remained, challenging.
Our decision, nothing new in that, but our decision to sharpen the focus in enterprise on the or in communication on the enterprise business, and with that, gradually wind down gaming. A short update on the CI business, the divestment of the CI business. It continues to progress, but we now expect it to close in first half of 2024, and not as previously stated, towards the end of this year. The Bone Anchored business will remain for the group for now, pending a review of our strategic options, which we will initiate once the transfer to Cochlear has been completed. Key financial takeaways for the third quarter, strong organic growth of 13%, driven by sustained market share gains in hearing healthcare.
The hearing healthcare part grew 14%, which was driven by very strong performance of hearing aids, with 25% growth to an external revenue, communication, organic growth of -20%, reflecting a continued weak market development both for gaming and for enterprise. Gross margin in line with expectations, and with that, an improvement from first half, despite of the sequential decline in communication, the hearing healthcare business have delivered well on that note. EBIT in line with expectation, as we have seen material operating leverage in the hearing healthcare side of the business, that offset larger than anticipated negative one-off effects related to the wind down of gaming that I'm gonna come back to. Based on this, we have narrowed the outlook for the year.
We are following plans, but uncertainty reduced in both ends, and therefore, the organic revenue growth is narrowed from previously 11%-14% to now 12%-13%, and the EBIT range narrowed with DKK 50 million from both ends, so now 4.05-4.35 billion DKK from previously 4-4.4 billion DKK. Hearing healthcare, taking a closer look at that, starting with the hearing aid market, which has developed in third quarter totally in line with what we anticipated in August when we last spoke to it. We have seen a higher than normal growth rates. The normal 4%-6% has been exceeded, and there has been a market growth of 8%.
However, this is only due to comp figures last year. We have, when you compare to pre-pandemic levels, seen exactly the same as we have seen in Q1 and Q2, an average growth rate of 5%. So again, testament to the assumption of a normalized hearing aid market. In Europe, the growth was solid. It was predominantly driven by very strong growth with NHS, where we have seen an element of catching up. UK commercial also grew. Germany was in slightly positive growth after a period with slightly negative growth, and France saw a negative growth in line with expectations, and as a, you know, consequence of the big demand created immediately after the reform. Growth in North America was strong.
It was driven by the commercial part of the market. Unit growth, we see to be continued to mainly be driven by managed care and larger chains, growing faster than the independent private market. That, however, has also, of course, benefited in a year-over-year comparison. Rest of the world, growth was solid. Growth in Japan was strong, whereas China, growth decelerated, and we estimated, we don't have statistics, that it remained slightly positive, again, back to last year's partially closed down due to Corona. Australia, growth was negative. And as you see it here, again, the 8%, you see U.S. with 12, and that is, again, you can really see it compare back to how second half last year developed. So this is totally in line with our expectations.
Hearing aids, very strong performance. We have sustained market share gains across channel and geographies. We have a 25% growth to external customers, and it is across geographies and channels. It is broad-based commercial success that basically picked up during the second half of 2022, and of course, further fueled by the introduction of Oticon Real in first quarter of 2023. And this is in the quarter, primarily unit-driven by while ASP was slightly positive. But all in all, on sequential basis, a very stable continued strong development of our hearing aid wholesale business, with strong performance in Germany and the UK. Slightly positive growth in France, despite of the negative market development, so clear market share gains in France.
A good performance in most other European markets. Strong growth and market share gains across channels in both U.S. and Canada. Continued positive traction with a bigger change in North America. Asia Pacific, rest of the world, strong growth in Asia, driven by Japan, where we have seen very positive development. Negative growth in the Pacific region due to customer mix, and strong growth in many rest-of-the-world countries. Again, all in all, 25% growth year-over-year in the hearing aid wholesale business. Hearing care continued good momentum in most of our medium-sized markets, markets where we have good organic growth, good acquisitions, bolt-on acquisitions, and continued improvement of the business through growth.
Organic growth in France is slightly negative due to the market development, but higher, you know, less negative than the market, so also a good performance there. Positive contribution from acquisitions across the business, but especially in Germany, where we continue to see progress on our decision to enter the retail space in Germany as well. Organic growth, also here, primarily driven by units with a slight tailwind from increasing ASP. Also in own retail, the product mix have benefited from a new high-end product like Oticon Real. Diagnostics, we estimate that the market in Q3 grew in line with the estimated structural growth rates of 3%-5%. However, probably in the lower end of that due to the current development in China.
It is our growth driven by Europe, where we saw good performance in many markets, as well as the US. We have seen negative growth in Asia due to the weak market dynamics in China. China is bigger for diagnostic relative than for our other businesses, and therefore, you see it more clear. Growth is mainly driven by the service business, say, you know, installation, calibration, disposables, et cetera, but also instruments for balance testing, as well as audiometers have performed well, and there was also a diagnostic, an element of 2% acquisitive growth. Communication continued to see headwinds.
The market growth in Q3 have followed the path of first half, and both gaming headsets and enterprise solution have continued to develop negatively year-over-year in the third quarter. Enterprise solutions is now approximately 85% of revenue. We saw an organic negative growth of 24%, and we continue to be materially impacted by the hesitation among professional buyers to invest in equipment like this. I think it goes way beyond our sector here or our segment here, and we don't see any change to that during the remaining of the second half, looking at it from a market perspective.
Gaming, now 15% of revenue, we saw a slight positive organic growth, driven by a effort to sell out of inventory in order not to end up with obsolescence. It has required some significant promotions, and therefore, a low gross margin. We are through the oldest part of inventory and the one that moves the least. So, we see this as a necessary element of making sure we wind down this business and cover as much cash as possible. The sharpened focus on enterprise continues. We are very focused on reshaping the EPOS business to be purely focused on enterprise solutions. We have, as you know, taking several means and steps to align the organization, and with that, the cost base to fit for that.
We unfortunately, as you can see, see an additional negative one-off EBIT impact of DKK 50 million-DKK 100 million in H2 from the decision to wind down, and this is all related to clearing of inventories and lower than anticipated sales prices. So this is a consequence of that decision and, you know, also our push to make sure we don't carry any potential obsolescence to 2024, but really leave this year with a relatively clean sheet, so we can look forward. And to focus our effort in enterprise, this is really centered around a strengthening product portfolio.
We have just launched the first of a series of new professional headsets that continue to receive very good reviews, and then also working on distribution and ways to get deeper into the market. We have our strength in Europe, but lack sales globally, and therefore we are happy to announce today that we have entered a strategic agreement with Lenovo. Lenovo, a key provider of PCs, et cetera, globally, with a very strong distribution in more than 180 countries.
EPOS is now the preferred partner, meaning that there will both be a limited number of SKUs that will carry both the Lenovo and the EPOS brand, but there will also be a listing catalog, you can say, of additional EPOS products that can come along in picking a solution, for instance, working from home solution for your staff, when picking among Lenovo's offers and solutions. And these things together is part of looking into 2024, where yes, we have seen a significant decline to gross margin here in second half, driven by the wind down of gaming, but we expect that to return to the levels of first half 2023 in 2024, and with ambition of further lifting it in the coming period. OPEX was, and will this year, end around DKK 600 million.
We are now on target to deliver between DKK 450 million-DKK 500 million, and maybe closer to the DKK 450 million than the DKK 500 million in 2024. Remember, taking into account the improved gross margin coming from the one-off element of gaming and the cost savings, we are firm in our belief that we can deliver less negative in 2023. We have already assured, you can say, DKK 150 million-DKK 250 million of improvements, everything else equal, going in to next year. The outlook for 2023, there is a few adjustments. The fundamental outlook for the market is unchanged.
The underlying structural growth is still expected to be, as we have seen in the first three quarters, 4%-6%. That would imply an above-that-level growth in fourth quarter. We will continue to see a negative ASP development of around 1%-2% from various mix effects, and we expect a continued weak momentum in the market for enterprise and gaming solutions throughout 2023. And based on that, the communication we previously expected negative organic growth and an EBIT more negative than the levels of 2022, for all the reasons explained. But in addition to that, we now, as I said, see an additional negative one-off effect in second half of DKK 50 million-DKK 100 million, all related to the wind down of the gaming activities.
We expect slightly higher than normal both on acquisitions, but the number of acquisitions planned for 2023 is gonna be slightly lower, and some of them are moving into 2024 and will be closed there. That's purely timing around the end of the year, and nothing special there. We continue to focus on adding to our existing business also through acquisitions. And then the expected delay in the closure of the CI business to first half of 2024, again, all related to making sure that whatever is necessary for Cochlear to uphold the commitment to take good care of our patients, things are taking a little longer than anticipated.
Outlook on organic growth narrowed from 11%-14% to now 12%-13%, acquisitive growth of around 3%, FX -1%, based on the rates as of yesterday. And then EBIT narrowed with DKK 50 million from each side, as said, now DKK 4.05 billion-DKK 4.35 billion, unchanged net financials, ex tax rate, et cetera. We continue to see improvement of our gearing, and therefore, we may still resume share buyback. However, that's subject to the actual cash generation and the exact timing and level of acquisitions throughout the rest of the year. That was it for the presentation, and now Q&A.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Martin Parkhøi from SEB. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Martin Parkhøi, SEB. Two questions. Firstly, on, you say that share buybacks may resume, subject to cash generation and level of positions completed, but maybe you also could talk a little bit about between the balance between-
... share perks programs and, the increasing, interest rates, the impact on your financials and the impact on potential, tax rate. So, so, so maybe we'll have a bit, bit of balance where, where it actually makes sense to, to do share purchase program or where it makes sense to go low, go below your target level for gearing. And then, second question, and I have to go back to the, the, the OPEX level on the communications business, because it puzzles me a bit that, that, that you, you can find DKK 50 million-DKK 100 million in additional one-off cost, only two and a half months after you have announced the closure of, of the gaming activity.
How certain can we actually be on the DKK 450 million-DKK 500 million in OPEX next year? Is that, you know, what are the risk of further one-off costs in next year in the case that the enterprise business do not turn around?
Yeah. Thank you, Martin. I will take the second, and René can comment further on the financial aspects. We are pretty firm on the OPEX for next year. This is predominantly a business, you know, with salaries and et cetera, and fixed cost, you could say. And we are good control of that. The one-off element does relate to the price we have managed to achieve for selling out of inventory. And the positive thing, to be fully transparent, is we have sold the things that either did not move at all or moved very slowly. We are through that. So, we still have inventory on gaming, but it's already much more healthy.
We have taken, I would say, a slightly aggressive approach to, you know, secure the cash that we can, and to avoid exactly what you, you know, point to, that we would have too much carry into next year. So we are really trying to make sure we clean it this year.
Yeah, and so Martin, on the leverage and buyback and acquisitions and so on. So the appropriate gearing level for the Demant group is something that we continuously discuss with the board and also in light of the high interest rates we have, let's say, reconfirmed that our leverage ratio, that we believe is appropriate for Demant, is between two to two and a half. So that is still our approach and also our mid- to long-term range to stay in. This also means that as we create a lot of free cash flow and basically continuously delivers, as we also increase operating profit, we have the financial strength to acquire businesses. We continue to do that, and we will also resume share buyback at some point.
Whether it would be end of this year or next year, it's a matter of timing, but that's definitely in our plans. So essentially, you can say nothing has changed in our position in this regard.
The next question comes from Hassan Al-Wakeel, from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have two. Firstly, following up again on comms. Can you talk about the gross margin impact in the third quarter from selling inventory at lower prices? And you know, to what extent is this likely to persist into Q4 and potentially into Q1? And how should we be thinking about margin headwinds into next year as well? So maybe I'll take that first question, and then we can come back on the second.
Yeah. So definitely we have seen significant headwind on the communications gross margin from selling out of gaming inventory. And the gaming products isolated have been sold at very, very low gross margin, and in some instances, also at a negative gross margin. But we have been through the majority of the inventory reduction during Q3, so we will see an improvement in Q4 on that parameter. And when entering next year, it is our firm belief that we will it will be a pure enterprise communication business with a gross margin, and more similar to what you saw in first half of this year or previous periods.
Do you have a second question?
Yeah, thank you. The second question is, your guidance implies around mid-teens growth in hearing healthcare, which is a step down from Q3 and a function of comps, but clearly still ahead of the market. How should we be thinking about growth into 2024 and some of the puts and takes here, please?
Yeah, yeah, you're absolutely right. The comps are changing. We did see, of course, significant uplift in the fourth quarter last year. But we are still seeing good momentum in the business, and we are still seeing, you know, all the hearing healthcare businesses deliver organic growth above the underlying market growth. So that's also our plan and expectation for fourth quarter.
And then if I can just follow up, just on the comms piece. I mean, you, you've given us some commentary around OPEX for 2024, as well as gross margin. You know, is it fair to be landing somewhere in the range of, you know, DKK 100 million-DKK 150 million of loss at the EBIT level, next year, and maybe closer to the lower end of that, based on what you've said?
... We don't guide specifically on EBIT for communications next year. But what we do say very specifically is that we know we have a strong handle on two specific improvements next year versus this year. And one is that this year we take the full effect of winding down gaming, and that is DKK 50-100 million that will not come back next year for sure. And then we see a significant improvement, DKK 100-150 million on OpEx that will benefit next year. So all in all, DKK 150-250 million in EBIT improvement we are very certain on delivering. And then, of course, the remaining uncertainty is sort of top-line development.
But on that parameter, we do also believe that we have a product portfolio and, for example, the new initiative with Lenovo, to provide at least some level of growth for next year.
What about the confidence in the business, ex gaming, so enterprise? I mean, are you close to a trough? Do you see any signs of that market troughing?
No, we don't see the market turning, and we also, you know, not out all around the world. So we would have to, you know, look at our competitors to see the real market development. But yes, we don't sense or feel any turn just around the corner.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Veronika Dubajova from Citi.
My question-
Apologies.
Hello?
Veronica, please.
Okay. Excellent. Thank you so much. I have two questions, please, if I can. The first one is just curious of, like, competitive environment that you're seeing in the whole, you know, hearing aid market at the moment. Obviously, we have had a number of product launches in the last sort of two months, and I'm curious to learn if you're willing to comment on kind of October into November with those products in the market. Have you seen any changes in your own momentum, in your competitors' momentum? And then, obviously, we have heard from your key competitor, especially on the higher-end side, that they feel that the momentum in their own business is improving. And I'm just curious if that's something that we should think about as impacting your growth rate in TRN?
Then, I guess, related to that, just your degree of confidence in your ability to outgrow the market as we move into 2024, given these changes in the competitive environment. That's my first question. I have a follow-up after that, but I'll let you answer this because it's quite lengthy.
Yeah, the line was a bit choppy, Veronica, so sorry if I didn't hit it straight on the nail, but I heard you speak to or ask to competitive environment, and especially one of our key competitors. I must say, our business seems very stable, still very strong, delivering good results. So no, we have not seen any significant change, at least not affecting us in the competitive environment. It is a competitive industry. It has always been. And I am also firm that that we, of course, want to continue our growth. It is driven by innovation, it is driven by our expansion of our own distribution, it is driven by a strong, agile supply chain, and a good global reach. And I'm sure these things are also there in 2024.
We, of course, also expect to launch products next year and deliver growth, and we always have an ambition of growing above the market. So there's no changes for the long to mid-term guidance, and there is no changes to our ambitions for 2024.
Okay. That, that's helpful. And then my second question, just of the retail environment that you're seeing, and obviously, I'm kind of curious if you're willing to prognosticate on when France might return to growth at this point in time, and what your kind of broader thoughts on the retail market heading into next year are?
Yeah, again, the line is really bad, Veronica, but I heard France in there, and I think I spoke quite clearly to it at our recent event at the connection with EUHA. And again, if you make a simple comparison to the German market, where many of the structures are now the same, then you would come to a conclusion that comparing the demographics, size of senior population, you would expect the market to be in the level of 1.4-1.5 million units. The run rate we see right now in France is maybe in the upper end of that interval, so we are either around the turn or approaching it, but we think we are relatively close and look with some optimism into next year in France.
Thanks, guys.
Our next question comes from Maja Pataki from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have actually basically just one. Søren, can you talk a bit about the dynamics you're seeing in China? Because you do mention it on the retail side, you mention it for the diagnostics business. The slower than anticipated dynamics that you're seeing in China, what do you relate them to? Is it just purely still a comparison due to the various effects from COVID? Is it a consumer sentiment, and how do you think it will develop going forward? And then just double-checking quickly, did you say that you're launching a product next year, or did you mean, you know, the normal cycle?
... Yeah, thank you. Let me start with the last. We always launch new products, and we also expect to launch new products next year. So, that's a general comment. We will, of course, disclose more when we are there. China, I think, China is, of course, a little less mature market, and there's no market statistics, so most of it is based on, of course, assessing your own business and what our local people hear and see in the marketplace. There are two elements to it. One is general consumer sentiment. I think, just like we saw in second half last year and the rest of the world, there is uncertainty, and when there is uncertainty, people either do nothing, meaning don't start, or they postpone repurchase.
When a market is growing like China, the majority of people are, or a lot of them, are first-time users, so there is something there around sentiment. There is also some, you know, reviews going on in China among public systems and, you know, review for corruption and stuff like that, that have meant a significant slowdown to investments in the public sector government system. And that is what hits the diagnostic business. And for the diagnostic business, China is a bigger part of, you know, share of business than we see on the hearing aid side. So, our retail business feels, of course, firsthand, the slowed sentiment and diagnostic, the short-term postponement, delay of purchases by government-driven hospitals.
We have no other reason than to believe these are, you know, a postponement rather than sales never gonna happen. There's no change to the number of hearing impaired in China. There's no change to the quite significant need for diagnostic equipment as the market is continuously expanding. I think there will be a catch-up. I don't know exactly when. We don't have the same touch and feel and experience with the development in the Chinese market, simply due to the less maturity it has than Europe and North America.
Thank you for that.
The next question comes from Oliver Metzger, from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. The first one is on the market and the overall ASP development. So you mentioned for you, ASP development was slightly positive, for market, slightly negative. So given where you are in this cycle, this more than nine months after launch, you should have experienced already some slight ASP headwinds just from the launch scheme. Then you also mentioned NHS was pretty strong, which comes also more at a lower price. So is it fair to say that the price increase you've experienced versus the market is really related to price increases you had, or have I missed anything in my conception? Second question is about enterprise. So can you comment about the competitive dynamics in enterprise?
Do you observe that as basically the crisis takes longer as initially expected, that some player, players try to defend their market share in volume terms by just becoming more aggressive on prices? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much, Oliver. On the ASP development, it is always a number of mixed effects, and there's no doubt that I would say both our geographies development, our channel mix, and also our product mix have all improved during the past 12 months. And that's the rationale for the uplift to ASPs that have, of course, also been helped and supported by price increases. But it is a mixed effect that we see. And yes, there are channels where we also see less success and share gain. But in the areas where we see, I would say, the most attractive parts of the business, we continue to see a good momentum and a strong growth.
So we both see a very significant unit growth, but also continue to see a positive ASP development in our business. And that is, of course, those elements, a number of them, you know, you could say, of more permanent character, the, especially the channel mix and the geography mix. Of course, product mix have an element of being fueled and spiked by platform introductions, new high-end, et cetera. And then in other times, it can flatten or go down. And then, of course, if a channel, like NHS, is growing, yes, then it can take down the ASP. On the other hand, in the comms we have seen and continue to see relatively weaker performance in what we call our export business, where we sell through distributor to a number of emerging markets that are currently not developing too well.
So it is mixed effects, and again, putting it all together, we have seen very significant unit growth development, but also a slightly positive ASP development, comparing to last year. The competitive environment in enterprise, it is for sure competitive. When the market is declining, then the fight gets intense. I think there is, of course, an element of EPOS being a smaller player, and therefore, as we have spoken to before, have more difficulties getting into new markets where the position is not established and not very strong. That's, of course, easier and better in a tailwind market than a headwind market.
But I feel we do well in the markets we are already established and where we have a decent market share, Scandinavia, U.K., Germany, France, whereas U.S. and parts of Asia is more of a struggle to get in when the market is down. And that is, of course, again, why a collaboration and partnership with a global player like Lenovo is expected to support the growth of the business.
Okay, thank you.
Our next question comes from Hugo Solvet, from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hello, thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First, maybe, could you discuss the Lenovo partnerships? You mentioned a preferred partner for EPOS. Is there an exclusivity here? How long will it last, and are you expecting sales to accelerate in the couple weeks and months as Lenovo could build its inventory? Second, just a clarification following on Maya's question. So when you mention new products into next year, are you talking about a totally new, say, disruptive platform or more new form factors and upgrade to the Oticon, the existing Oticon Real? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much, Hugo, for your questions. The Lenovo is a exclusive agreement, and it is a strategic partnership that Lenovo wants to get a lot out of and have good high ambitions for what can deliver. I think they have seen one of their key competitors partner with another headset business, and have come to the conclusion they would also like to have a similar opportunity to meet a lot of requests and demand for this kind of equipments. So it is a close partnership. They call on it, they buy products, they distribute them.
So it's, you know, we sell into Lenovo, and there is, of course, all kind of practical details on how we avoid having too much inventory flowing around the world. But, it is, we sell to them, and they pass it on. On new products, I will not disclose our product range for next year. That would be totally premature.
But I'm just stating again that, of course, we have good ambitious plans of continue our over the past three or four years, a very strong launch of platforms and new product extensions based on our, you know, BrainHearing philosophy, where we have managed to deliver, I think, beyond most players in the markets, strong new product concepts that have delivered the growth, and we also expect that in the future.
Okay, thank you. And maybe, sorry, just to push you on that one, but do you feel the need, like some of your competitors, to shorten the product launch pace, or do you feel comfortable with what you have delivered in the past?
No, I think we have over the past years shown to have a good, consistent flow of new products and also complementary style and form factors to the portfolio, but also making sure that we continue to lift the bar on what can be expected from a modern hearing aid, and that's what we can expect to continue.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Martin Brenøe of Nordea. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two, if I may, and I'll take them one by one. First of all, NHS has been a growth driver. When I look at NHS statistics over the last couple of months, the hearing aids appointments have actually declined quite significantly in the last couple of months. Have you seen any weakness in that regard? That's the first question.
Yeah. First of all, I don't know exactly what statistics you look at. We can just see what they buy. So this is a sell-in, and there is, of course, always a little bit of fluctuations there. We observe that NHS in general is growing. It is a combination of what's done at hospitals and what is done through their so-called AQP program, where the fittings are done private. And adding it all together, we clearly sense and feel that the ambition to lower the waiting list that have been built up in NHS across many categories is a big focus to lower, including hearing aids. So all in all, we see a pretty good, you know, buy of instruments, so or buying of instruments.
I cannot comment more detailed on the actual appointment. I don't have those statistics in front of me.
Okay, that, that's very clear. Thank you for that. And the second question is regarding the communications business. Maybe just if you could get a little bit of flavor on... I mean, of course, you have this new exciting partnership, and you are on a trajectory to improve your EBIT drag on the group, but could you maybe help me understand at what level? You might look to spin it out or do something else with it if you don't see the EBIT improving over the next couple of years? Like, how long can the road be to profitability before you look at other options, so to speak?
I will not comment on those speculations, but it is very important for us to come back to profitability, and we do everything we can to get there as fast as possible. And I think you can see that we do take necessary steps, as you say, to reduce cost, to focus the business on the core and deliver a stronger opportunity for global distribution. And I think that altogether is what we currently believe is the best way forward for the communication business.
Okay, very clear. Thank you so much. I'll jump back in the queue, please.
The next question comes from Susannah Ludwig of Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. I have two. I guess just first on ASP and the retail business, are you able to quantify the impact in the quarter? And is it correct that sequentially it's flowed from sort of the low to mid-single digit tailwind seen in H1? And then, are you considering any further retail price increases in 2024?
Yeah, thank you. The ASP in retail is also an element of a mix of geography. So when China is growing less than the rest of the world, you see tailwind. ASP in retail, apart from price increases, is relatively stable market by market, and we don't see any, you know, fundamental changes, except in North America, where we, with the decision of stepping out of managed care, have seen, of course, a following uplift to ASP and profitability, which was a key focus with that exercise. And then we have added to pricing during the past period to cover up for, you know, growing cost base. What we will do into next year is an assessment we do when, you know, we get into next year.
But if necessary, we would, of course, again, revisit pricing to see if that's necessary to cover for inflation, inflationary elements in the business.
Okay, great. Then just my second question is just a quick follow-up on Veronika's question on France. Are you able to confirm what % of your retail and what % of your wholesale business France currently represents?
I'm careful to spit it out here live. I can't remember. Maybe you, Mathias?
Sorry, it's around 20.
Yeah.
Around 20% in France retail.
Yeah, French retail is around 20% of our total hearing care business, and wholesale, less significant.
Yes, it is. We can follow up.
Okay.
We can come back to you on that.
Great. Thanks.
The next question comes from Robert Davies of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been covered, but just a couple from me. Just in terms of the outlook for the diagnostics business going to next year, just be kind of curious, given your comments around China and some of the anti-corruption lockdown measures, what are your views there going into 2024 were? Whether we should expect sort of in line or below average growth for that business. And then the second one was just, given obviously the exceptional growth that you've seen in the hearing healthcare or in the hearing aid business, which has driven the hearing healthcare, I guess.
Looking into 2024, is there any reason to believe we wouldn't see kind of normal 4%-6% type of growth that year, or are we gonna need to factor in the, I guess, the very tough comps from 2021, thinking about next year's range of growth openings? Thank you.
I will answer the market outlook. We definitely expect, as we see things now, it could change, but as we see things now, a 4%-6% growth next year. Again, the market has normalized, so the higher the normal growth rate this year is purely due to a low comps from last year. The run rate is quite stable and as predicted, growing a little bit from first half into second half. So I think the market now follows the normal path, which will also imply a 4%-6% unit growth next year. And I think, René, for many good reasons, you are better in commenting on the diagnostics these days.
Yeah, well, and no one knows exactly what will happen in China next year, but some of the things that we see now, in particular, when it comes to public spending, we do believe has a temporary character. So we are optimistic when it comes to China for the mid to long term, for sure, and overall for diagnostics. We are also confident that we will continue to gain market share and grow above the 3%-5%. That's our view, that the market growth fundamentally is, so nothing changed there.
Okay. That's great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Daniel Jelovcan from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon as well. First question is to Germany. Is it fair to say that you probably have done very well in wholesale, so, i.e., you gain market share, and that actually the retail isn't that strong, like, wholesale? First question.
... Yeah, I think we actually do very well in both businesses. Wholesale have clearly seen a very strong momentum during the year and grown when the market was negative. But also our retail entities have done well and grown also organically. So, Germany, a very good performance.
Wholesale is much bigger than retail, right? In Germany?
Uh, yes.
Yes. Okay. And the second question, last question, regarding managed care, which you mentioned as key growth driver in the U.S. market. Question is, are you totally out there? I mean, a lot of companies are going out there, so I wonder what the impact is, you know, I mean, somebody has to do that, that business. And if it's possible, if you can give us an update about managed care.
Yeah. We are not out of managed care. Our hearing care business in U.S. have just decided to leave two of the very big players network because yeah, the share of demand products that could be fitted and the fitting fees we got for those services were, were not, you know, satisfying us, and we think we could do a better business mix. We were above market average in a period, now we are below market average, not a lot below, but below. So you still- we still do managed care, but in another mix.
On wholesale, we of course still fight for getting a decent share of managed care business, but we are also focused on the, you know, make sure we run a profitable business, and it's basically in the lower end that things are not in reality loss-making into aggressive pricing. So a careful continuous evaluation of the business and a slightly different strategies depending on, you know, across wholesale and retail.
Thanks. But the ASP in wholesale is, I guess, much lower than in a large chains or in VA or whatever. Is that correct or?
That's a product mix issue, what the ASP ends up being, so that depends a lot on your product mix. But in general, the product mix reflects the general market, and therefore, is better than you would find. You mentioned VA or some of the big players. It's better on the wholesale side.
But you also sell Oticon Real, for instance, to the managed care? Last question, sorry.
Yes. You basically, a number of them are very interested. They're not the same, all the managed care. Some have a big focus on price, some have a big focus on quality. It, you know, so the product makes it very different. But a number of the players want to make sure they have what you could call the latest and greatest on their managed care plans. It depends on a little bit on also who is in reality owning the managed care administrator.
Okay, thanks very much.
Our next question comes from Christian Ryom, from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question. I have just a single one for you, René. So, can you help me understand, when we look at your tax rate guidance of these 24%-25%, and compare that to the statutory Danish rate of about 22%, how much of the difference there is explained by interest costs this year exceeding the deductibility cap in Denmark? Is that possible to quantify?
Yeah, and in very short, it's around one percentage point. So that's the very precise-
Okay.
Answer to that. So you would... Yeah.
Okay.
So you would, all things being equal, see that improvement as you can say, if we're able to mitigate that challenge.
The follow-up question there is, this might be me not understanding the Danish tax law completely on this, but doesn't the cap work such that the cap is basically adjusted for each new tax year depending on, let's say, an average interest rate for the Danish economy, meaning that next year you will almost certainly be below the deductibility cap due to the rise in interest rates from 2022 to 2023. Sorry.
There is some adjustment factors to it, but, my understanding at least, is, that it will not compensate fully, and we need to look at our overall debt structure and where we have debt across the world.
Okay, great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Niels Granholm-Leth from Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. On your last CMD, you introduced your long-term organic growth, the ambitions of 4%-6% annually and annual EBIT margin expansion. Would you say this is also valid for next year, given that next year will be a kind of in between year? My second question would be on your net financial costs. Have the high interest rates now been fully phased into your debt facilities? Thank you.
Yeah, on the latter one, no, they have not fully. We have recently refinanced a significant part of our debt, and that will translate into next year, where you will see, not dramatically, but increasing interest cost. And there's no changes to what we said at the CMD, and I think, or not think, the first big contribution to next year will be the improvement of the result from EPOS communication, and then and generally upsides in the various businesses for scalability. That, of course, it depends on the growth rate. We realize the organic growth, there is a good strong correlation there, and we'll get more back to that when we start guiding for next year.
On your interest cost, could you elaborate on how much is the average increase in your interest rate on your net debt for next year compared to this year?
Yeah, relatively small, but I think it's something that belongs when we give the outlook for next year.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Shubhangi Gupta of HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. My first question is, what is the growth momentum you're seeing in Germany, and what % of your total sales is Germany? And also, are you seeing any reimbursement changes there? And my second question is, on hearing aid side. So the product cycle is about four to six years for a pair of hearing aids, however, new products are launched every year, so how does the product differentiation work there? Thank you.
Yeah, the line was a little tough, but I will start, I think, with the last. I think we normally see a, let's say, platform cycle of around two years. It can be a little shorter, it can be a little longer. And in between there are many, you know, form factors in a complete portfolio, there's many price points, so it typically takes one to two years to get through a total renewal. The industry has a very high replacement, meaning newer products very quickly take over from existing products in the portfolio. So it is a very dynamic product portfolio management that takes place typically in our industry. The growth momentum in Germany, as I said just before, is quite strong.
We have seen very good performance during the year both in our hearing aid wholesale business as well as our hearing care business. In wholesale, Germany is our second biggest market, and I can't remember the exact share of that, but it's significant of course, being the second biggest. On the retail side, it's quite low still. It is a market we have just entered, and therefore still only have, you know, a small representation relative to the size of the market and relative to our global hearing care business.
Just a follow-up question. So even on the hearing aids on the public side, can they be subject to reimbursement every couple of years?
I simply couldn't get the question, sorry. Could you repeat?
Sorry, I didn't get you.
Sorry, could you repeat the question, please?
On the hearing aid side, even from the, like, the national health insurance and other, insurance agencies in developed markets, are the hearing aids replaceable or subject to reimbursement every couple of years? Because you just mentioned that the product cycle is, like, two years for hearing aids.
Yeah. I get it right then, if, if, when there is reimbursement, whether the cycle for reimbursement is changing. And yes, there has been some extension in Germany of it from some sick funds. It's not like one sick fund. There's a number of sick funds, and some have extended the replacement cycle, but it varies in general from a market to market. Some have a four-year cycle, some have a five-year cycle, some have a six-year cycle. But in, you know, globally speaking, they are relatively stable these replacement cycles.
Thank you.
Hope I answered your question.
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.
Yeah, thanks for that. That was it for today's session. We just have one last point here. We will be hosting a capital markets day on Tuesday, the twelfth of March next year at our group headquarters here in Smørum, little outside Copenhagen. So this is just to save the date, basically, so you all know it. But we'll, of course, share more details and a formal invite in due course. But thanks very much for participating, and as always, let us know if you have any questions, and we look forward to meeting you on the road over the next coming weeks. Thanks very much. Have a good day!