Good morning and welcome, everyone. We are ready to start one of today's events. My name is Rasmus Køjborg , and on behalf of Hans Christian Andersen Capital, I have the pleasure of welcoming CFO Martin Badsted from Norden, who will take us through the annual report for 2024 that was published this morning. So, a warm welcome to you, Martin. And before I hand over, also a warm welcome to those of you who signed up for today's presentation. As usual, you can ask questions in the chat, and if you're not comfortable writing in English, you can do it in Danish, and I'll help with the translation. And we're also recording this presentation, so it will be available afterwards on different platforms. But with that, I'll leave the stage for you, Martin.
Thank you very much, and thank you all to the audience for spending some time to review our annual report that we just published. So if we jump right in, overall, we consider this to be a successful year in what can best be described as very challenging markets. So, as you may have seen, we come out with a net profit for the full year of $163 million, which corresponds to a return on invested capital of 14%, which we think is attractive compared to the 12% long-term target that we have set ourselves. So, over the last couple of years, we have seen an actually quite solid improvement in the value of our portfolio of ownerships and TC ships, not least the purchase options.
We have spent the last part of 2024 unlocking some of these values, both to put money in the bank, but also to prepare for near-term market weakness that we have expected. You will see that we have completed vessel sales with gains of $82 million for the full year, and also taken on cargo and TC cover for the short term. When we ask brokers for the valuation of our own fleet and assemble that together with our balance sheet items, we come to a net asset value in our Assets & Logistics team of DKK 425 per share by year-end. We still have a very strong balance sheet, which allows us to actually allocate capital with the interest of optimizing returns and shareholder value.
You will have seen that during the year, we invested in expanding our platform with the acquisition of Norlat Shipping , which we think was a good bolt-on addition to the Turkish projects that we acquired in 2023. We have also optimized our vessel portfolio by making new investments in modern, fuel-efficient vessels that are delivering data, where we think the market fundamentals are looking good. And not least, we are proposing to return an additional $27 million to shareholders in the form of a DKK 2 per share dividend and $18 million in share buyback that will be starting right now.
So, looking a little bit deeper into the numbers, the Q4 net profit was $30 million, and the $40 million of that was actually generated in assets and logistics, which brought the full-year net profit for that division up to $236 million, driven not least by the sales gains I just mentioned, but also high earnings coverage that we have entered into at attractive levels. In our FST division, the full-year net profit was minus $74 million, significantly impacted by the expensive cargo commitments that we had for the first half, and not least the difficult markets in both dry and tankers in the second half. Actually, the $11 million loss that we made in Q4 did actually demonstrate the expected improvement in the business unit and was the best quarter of the year for FST.
The main improvement that we have been seeing in the dry cargo is actually going according to plan, but then being offset recently by the decline in the tanker spot rates. We still consider this to be what we call an owner's market, where period rates for vessels are quite high compared to spot markets, which actually means that some of the margin challenges that we have in the FS&T business unit are coming in in the form of higher margins in the assets and logistics business. So, we have, as I said, positioned for weaker markets. We saw significant spot rate declines in Q4 of 20%-30% in dry and about 20% quarter on quarter in tankers.
We actually had, to a large extent, expected this and have been benefiting in dry from a declining market because we have taken on quite a lot of cargoes on the book, and we are actually entering 2025 with a short position. Also, we have retained quite a lot of financial strength on our balance sheet, making us or enabling us to act on opportunities as they come in an expected weaker market. Long-term, importantly, we still believe actually that the market fundamentals are quite attractive given the limited order books and the aging global fleet, both in dry and in tankers. At the beginning of the year or the end of January 2025, we had close to 9,000 open tanker vessel days and a short position of 7,000 dry cargo vessel days. Let me just remind you of the way that we do business.
We still actually believe in the power of our business model to generate long-term returns in markets that are often quite volatile. The tools that we have at our disposal enable us, we believe, to deliver best-in-class return on invested capital, which we have also demonstrated over the last five years, as you can see in the graph at the bottom, where the Norden position is actually very high on return on invested capital, but also, of course, high on volatility because the markets are actually quite volatile where we operate, and one of the things that we can do is to actually manage our exposure to where we think the best risk-reward is, and you can see from the illustration at the top, this can be either exposure towards tankers or dry cargo and can be more or less asset-heavy or asset-light.
And we can work with this in order to position ourselves for the most attractive opportunities. And as I said before, in the short term, we have actually put on a short in dry cargo. And on the longer-term horizon, we have moved some exposure from tankers to dry with the ordering of some cape new buildings, especially in dry cargo. Looking at our guidance, we have announced that we expect a net profit of $22,100 million for the full year. And this includes sales gains from already agreed transactions of $16 million, which can be compared to the $82 million that was realized in 2024. And it's a big part of the explanation why the guidance range that we issue now is lower than the $163 million that we realized in 2024.
In the FST business unit, we do expect margins per day to continue to improve, especially in dry cargo, where we have seen that improvement since the first half of 2024. And in tanker rates, it all really depends on where the tanker spot rates are going forward through 2025. In assets and logistics, we continue to benefit from high earnings coverage in both dry cargo and tankers. And this brings me to the summary for the full year. As I said, $163 million in net profit and a return on invested capital of 14%. It is still a challenging market environment in freight services and trading, but we do expect continued improvement there. And our NAV gives a good support, I think, to our share price with an NAV of DKK 425 per share.
We have reduced near-term market exposure to weaker markets in both dry and in tankers and are allocating capital back into the business, both to improve our platform and our vessel portfolio, but certainly also to reward shareholders with a dividend of DKK 2 per share and $18 million share buyback, bringing the total to $100 million that we have returned to shareholders for 2024. That actually concludes my part of the presentation, and I think we open up for questions now.
Very good. Thank you very much, Martin. Yes, and should you have any questions, please use the chat, and we'll go through the different areas. There were some questions related to guidance here, Martin. There was you have quite a wide range here from $20-$100 million. Could you sort of give an indication of what kind of scenarios you're expecting here in the low end and in the high end of your guidance range?
Yeah, so I think the main down scenario would be if the tanker market, where we have 9,000 open days, if that is weaker than expected, and at the same time, the Dry Operator new activity, which needs to be generated during the year, if that doesn't bring really the margins of the margin improvement that we are expecting, so if those two things happen at the same time, then that would be sort of my main down scenario. On the other hand, the tanker market can actually also be better than expected because there's a lot of things going on, and we do see spikes from time to time, so there's also decent upside in the tanker business, and then, of course, the margins of the Dry Operator with the new activity that we take on during the year could actually be more attractive than expected.
Then, not least, of course, additional vessel sales to the one that we have already agreed could also add to the overall net profit for the year and getting us closer to the $100 million.
Very good, because there were actually a few questions also relating to this asset sales. There was a question, how do you see the potential for more asset sales in 2025, and does selling vessels reduce the long-term earnings outlook as a result of owning fewer vessels?
Yeah, so I would say overall, we are mostly inclined to be in risk-off mode in terms of the own vessel portfolio. So you could see us do additional sales transactions, and typically that would be with a positive profit contribution. It's true that if we sell vessels and do not at some point reinvest, then we would be depleting the long-term earnings outlook. But our main focus here is really to generate attractive returns on capital. So you can say basically what we are thinking at the moment is that the capital that we have employed will not generate the best returns right now. So we might sell ships now with the intent of reinvesting either in similar ships or different ships down the line. So to us, it's not about having a very firm long-term view on the size of the own fleet.
It's more about figuring out where we think we can take gains now and invest in returns later.
Very good. And also another question related to this asset sales. It's a Danish question here, and I'm not fully sure that I understand the full part of it, but basically asking if you could comment on the sale of ships to the shadow fleet. Does that mean that the value of 425 now will not stand anymore? I'm not sure you're selling to a shadow fleet, so yeah, that's why I don't fully understand the question.
No, we are not selling into the Russia-controlled shadow fleet. But maybe the question is about whether there is a premium on the shadow fleet transactions that we will then miss out on. And I don't think actually that is the case. And what I can say is that the net asset value that we are basing the DKK 425 on is that we take our fleet list and we send it to three independent ship brokers and ask for their assessment of what the vessels are worth. And I think actually that aligns quite well with the negotiations that we have on an ongoing basis with where the values are selling not to the shadow fleet, but to independent non-sanctioned companies. So no, I don't think there's any sort of downside risk from that effect.
Very good. And then a few questions on Trump and tariffs. That has certainly taken the headlines here in 2025. There's a question here, how is the impact of Trump on tankers and dry cargo? What can you say about tariffs so far? And another one here, will tariffs on Canadian oil help the tanker markets?
Yeah, those are super good and relevant questions and something, of course, that we are monitoring all the time, every day. And it's hard to give sort of very firm answers. But you can say the first what we saw was sanctions on Mexican imports and Canadian imports, including oil. And I think actually net-net that could be positive for the tanker market if these sanctions actually come to be put in place because it's really a tax on, you can say, the pipeline imports that would then have to be moved to vessel transportation instead. But it's fairly small. And I think the big question really is, will these sanctions even be implemented or is it just a threat of tariffs which is used as a negotiation tool? So that is really the hard part.
But if they were to be implemented, I think it would be net positive for tankers, at least in the short term, and same on the dry cargo, where there has been somewhere China has retaliated, putting tariffs on coal exports from the U.S. Again, not a big trade, but it is a front-haul trade, so it's not sort of immaterial when you add in the very long distances, so that could be a small negative, but I do think actually overall, in the big picture, all of these tariffs are typically making the market less efficient and forcing companies to find new sources of supply and new trading routes, which actually overall tends to be okay for shipping because we need more ships to service the same demand.
On the other hand, the downside, I think, is if so much uncertainty is coming into the market in general, not the shipping market, that the macroeconomic picture will be deteriorating, so I think that is the real threat that uncertainty will drive lower growth overall because from a shipping perspective, the net effect of these tariffs are often actually positive.
Then also another question related sort of to the tanker rates. There's a question here that goes, Saudi Arabia has a spare capacity of around 3.1 million barrels per day at the moment. Do you really think that the tanker rates are going lower, especially with Trump and Saudi Arabia friendship? And Trump, I guess, does not want higher oil prices. So I guess it relates to that Saudi Arabia has this spare capacity that somehow needs to be transported as well.
Yes, and we have been sort of vigilantly monitoring that spare capacity for quite a while and hoping for them, you can say, to increase their exports because that for sure will drive additional volumes, especially on crude, and that will probably trickle down to the product tanker vessels. So yes, there is that, you can say, upside scenario for rates. It has been there for quite a while. So far, they have maintained discipline to sort of protect the OPEC+ strategy. But of course, that can change. And that is also why I think in the near term, there is a case to be made that the tanker market could surprise on the upside. I will say, though, that the order book in tankers has also come up. We are looking at 14% order book, but it's not coming right now, but later in the year and into 2026.
I think that could also put some pressure on the tanker rates before sort of the aging of the fleet also kicks in to absorb the new ships that are coming.
In relation to this, there's a question here. How quickly can you adjust positioning if markets change? What is sort of the latest also with the winter market in tankers?
So in tankers, the tools at our disposal are fewer in terms of managing the short-term exposure. You can, of course, in the very short term, decide either to take short voyages or long voyages to cover your fleet a little bit more. You do have FFA derivatives that you can use, but it's not a very liquid market. So in tankers, the real decision is often being very long on ships or being only a little bit long on ships. Whereas on the dry side, we have much more tools in terms of cargo contracts and derivatives that are much more liquid so that we can, you can say, adjust our exposure and risk-taking much more finely.
Then this is quite a specific question. I don't know if you have the information here, Martin, but do you see any change in rates for Aframax going east-west Canada, U.S., it says?
I would say actually that the Aframax is in particular got a little bit of a helping hand from the OFAC sanctions that came out just before Biden stepped down. So those sanctions have also caused disruptions, especially to Aframaxes, but actually across the board. So you can say there's that effect. And then yes, I think there is also the effect that if Canadian exports of crude into the U.S. becomes more expensive due to tariffs, they could try and find a way out through ports, which would then often be on Aframaxes. But I will say the infrastructure in Canada is not well equipped to actually manage these volumes that are typically going on pipelines. So it will be difficult for them to export a lot more in the short term through these ports.
Good. And also, how will it impact you if sort of the situation at the Red Sea changes, if it will be a safe passage again and you can use the Suez Canal?
Yeah, I think that has been a support to both the tanker, a little bit also the dry cargo market in the last year or two, so there is a downside scenario here where the Suez Canal opens up completely, so that is a negative, but I would say it's not a given that it happens. There is a ceasefire now, which needs to be negotiated into the next phases. Many things can happen and not much needs to sort of go wrong before, I think, the ceasefire is canceled, but it is sort of a key downside scenario if the Suez Canal opens completely and all ship owners and operators sort of are convinced that it's safe to go through because it is shorter distances and it is more efficient and will, of course, drive down the utilization balance.
Very good. And then a few last questions. One of the themes in 2024 was this dirty to clean switch. Can you update a little bit on that? And do you see this trend continuing 2025? There's a question. And a question goes with the same here. What is status on the VLCC turning to clean?
Yeah, I will say that this move into clean from some of the big crude tankers has been a big part of the weaker market in the second half of 2024. We are seeing that these ships are discharging their cargos and not sort of staying in the clean market. So we think that the pressure from that factor is wearing off and we're not seeing it coming back. Of course, the barrier to doing this is now probably lower because people have tried it and it is an option. But right now, crude rates are actually doing quite okay. And I think the geographical arbitrage between east and west is not really supporting going into clean at the moment. So I think that is something that for now, at least, is behind us.
Very good. And then a question here that goes around your NAV. The question goes, as for a shareholder's point of view, with a NAV of 425, it would make good sense to sell the ships you mentioned you have purchase options on and do a bigger share buyback than you're doing currently. There's a 50% discount now with the current share price around DKK 200 level. But instead, you instead invest in building new capesize, as you have also mentioned. Could you please elaborate a bit on that and give shareholders some more cash return with a bigger share buyback?
So that is why, of course, we have consistently made share buybacks during 2024 and again proposing one now because we agree that it is actually a good business to sell our ships in the front and buy back our shares. And that is actually what we're doing. But we also think that it's prudent actually to invest into our fleet and our overall business platform for the future. So we think we are trying to strike a balance in the way that we are allocating capital. But we are certainly mindful of the fact that with the discount that we are trading at, we should be selling ships and we are.
Very good. And then a final question, which also is related to the buyback. And I think this perhaps needs a little bit of clarification. So the question goes, will the share buyback also include buying in the open market and not only buying from AS Motor Trump? And I think you're also buying in the open market. Yeah, but maybe you could clarify that, Martin.
Yeah, so we are buying in the open market. The technicality with AS Motor Trump is that they want to sort of retain and not increase their ownership share of Norden. So they are selling on a prorated basis, the same amount of shares that we are sort of buying in the open market. So that is the reason actually.
Very good. I think we'll conclude by that. So thank you very much, Martin and Noan, for an interesting rundown here of the annual report.
Thank you very much.
And thank you for those of you who participated and had a lot of good questions. I just wish you all a nice day. Thank you.