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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Feb 5, 2025

Operator

Welcome to this Embla Medical Full Year Results 2024 Presentation. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections to this, please disconnect your line. All participants will be in a listen-only mode throughout the presentation, and afterwards, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would like to introduce CEO Sveinn Sölvason and CFO Arna Sveinsdóttir. Please begin your presentation.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thank you very much. Good morning and welcome to the Embla Medical conference call where we will review the fourth quarter and full-year results for 2024. I'm Sveinn Sölvason, President and CEO of Embla Medical, and joining me on today's call is our CFO, Arna Sveinsdóttir, and Embla Medical's Head of Investor Relations Klaus Sindahl. The presentation should take approximately 20 minutes, after which there will be an opportunity to ask questions during a Q&A session.

If we can please go to the next slide. As we look back on an eventful 2024, what stands out is delivering on our relentless commitment to improving people's mobility. Our innovative product solutions and patient care have a positive impact on millions of individuals around the world.

The past year was marked by several milestones as we continue to take steps on our journey to build a company that is focused on delivering products and services for individuals with a chronic as well as acute mobility need. This includes the establishment of Embla Medical, starting to also unite our patient care facilities under the ForMotion brand Fior & Gentz, also to name a few.

Additionally, we are seeing positive market trends such as the expanded U.S. Medicare coverage for advanced bionic prosthetics for less mobile K2 amputees, bringing potential for improved quality of life for a large patient population. I'm also very happy with our progress within R&D as we launched several exciting innovations during the year, and these include, among others, the bionic knees ICON and NAVII. Lastly, I want to highlight the Paralympic Games in Paris.

In the latter part of the summer, here, a global team of elite para-athletes using Össur renowned prosthetics won 22 medals and set five new Paralympic records. If you please turn to the next slide for an overview of some of the key highlights here in the fourth quarter. Throughout 2024, we have delivered solid organic sales growth with also increasing profitability.

For the full year, our organic sales growth was 6%, driven by a strong performance in our EMEA region as well as the Prosthetics, Neuro-Orthotics, and Patient Care segments. Growth in local currency was 9% with the impact of the Fior & Gentz that we completed in the beginning of the year.

The fourth quarter in isolation grew slightly lower than the full year of 5% organic, mainly due to a stronger comparable in our patient care business, where we had somewhat of an extraordinary strong quarter in 2023. EBITDA margin before special items came in strong for the quarter at 21%, and for the full year, margin was 20%, up 2 percentage points from 2023. We continue to see positive effects from cost reduction initiatives implemented in manufacturing during quarter one, as well as positive contribution from product mix and cost control in our SG&A costs.

In addition, here in quarter four, we delivered strong cash flow. We are receiving very good feedback, initial feedback on our recently launched bionic knees. The NAVII knee is receiving a very positive response as being a much smoother and reactive knee joint, while still offering a more stable and safer gait for amputees.

Both NAVII and Icon continue to be in limited launch, with full launch expected towards the latter half of the quarter here in the beginning of the year. Twelve months ago, as I mentioned Fior & Gentz, which is a leading maker of lower limb neuro-orthotic components. The acquisition was an important step in our growth journey and an expansion into the field of neuro-orthotics, a field we are optimistic about as we are as a company broadening our ability to support individuals with chronic mobility challenges.

We're pleased to see good progress on the Fior & Gentz. in the fourth quarter, we have started to roll out the neuro-orthotics portfolio in the U.S., France, and Switzerland, leveraging our commercial infrastructure in these markets with the ultimate objective of bringing these solutions to more patients.

On the patient care front, we announced our intent to unite our network of patient care facilities under a new common brand, ForMotion. The ForMotion brand continues to be introduced gradually in markets we operate in within patient care. During the fourth quarter, we rebranded our clinics in Denmark and a few locations in the US, while Norway is on the agenda here in quarter one. It's our expectation that we will complete the rebranding in most of our patient care locations this year. For 2025, we've issued new guidance of 5%-8% organic sales growth, coupled with guidance of delivering a 20%-21% EBITDA margin before special items.

Lastly, in line with our capital structure and capital allocation policy, a new share buyback program is to be initiated as planned as we are back within our target range of 2%-3% NIBD. We expect to announce more details around this program as soon as possible. If you please turn to the next slide. Sales in Americas were strong in the quarter after a period of slower growth and tougher comparisons. The 7% growth in quarter four was driven by solid organic sales growth in our prosthetics and neuro-orthotics business, as well as good growth in patient care.

In bionics, we're seeing some initial traction during the limited launch period with our recently launched NAVII and Icon bionic knees. In the EMEA region, the strong growth trajectory we've seen in the past quarters in this part of our business continued. Sales in our patient care business in the EMEA region were, however, strong in the quarter and mainly related to a strong comparable quarter in quarter four 2023, as I mentioned earlier, impacted the reported growth rate here in quarter four, and lastly, in APAC, we've seen a more modest performance for the quarter.

Prosthetics and Neuro-Orthotics demonstrated good growth in the region, driven by Australia and New Zealand, which was partly offset by softer performance in some of our largest markets in the Asia region. If you please turn to the next slide on going deeper into the segments. Starting with the Prosthetics and Neuro-Orthotics, we delivered 12% organic growth here in the quarter and 9% for the full year. In EMEA, we continue to see a strong momentum driven by volume growth across all major markets, including also good progress on bionics in Americas, also across all major product categories, including bionics with some contribution, as I mentioned earlier, from NAVII and Icon.

In APAC, also good performance in our prosthetics and neuro-orthotics segments, and as I mentioned earlier, a little slowdown in some of the Asian markets, and lastly, here, part of the neuro-orthotics segment Fior & Gentz business, which continues to deliver in line with our expectations as the expectations we set when we did the acquisition a year ago. If you could turn to the next slide, please, on bracing. Bracing and Supports sales grew by 2% organically in quarter four and 1% for the full year.

Both in our Bracing and Supports business has been impacted by, I would say, somewhat of a challenging market dynamic in selected product categories, mainly in our Americas market. We have, however, seen positive signs with increased uptake during here the fourth quarter, driven mainly by our OA business in European markets. During most of 2024, growth in the Americas was impacted following the cyber attack at UnitedHealthcare in the early quarters of the year.

That had a big impact on our customers' ability to process reimbursement claims. In APAC, sales were strong in particularly Australia and New Zealand, but as with prosthetics and neuro-orthotics, soft in some of the large Asia markets. Go to the next slide, please. Sales in the patient care segment amounted to $80 million here in quarter four, and our organic sales declined by 1%. For the full year, organic sales growth was 5%.

Looking at the regions, we delivered solid sales growth in Americas, mainly driven by good uptake and good volume development in key regions, but offset by softer sales in the EMEA and APAC region, where again, I'll refer to a particularly strong quarter in the comparable year last year. Now, this concludes the sales performance overview for the quarter, and I would like to hand it over to Arna to go through the financials in more detail. Arna, please.

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

Thank you, First. Please turn to the next slide for an overview of our financials. In quarter four, the gross profit margin was 63% of sales, compared to 61% in quarter four 2023. The 2% gross profit margin expansion for the quarter was supported by cost reduction initiatives in manufacturing implemented during Q1 2024, in addition to positive product mix, scalability, and manufacturing efficiency.

For the full year 2024, gross profit margin before special items was 63%, compared to 62% of sales in 2023. We are pleased to see that OPEX growth continues to be well managed. In Q4, OPEX grew 5% organically, as we saw effective cost control and scalability in SG&A costs being partially offset by investment in R&D. Currencies impacted our EBITDA margin positively by roughly 40 basis points for the quarter.

With an increasing gross profit margin and continued focus on effective cost control in our operational expenses, I'm pleased to report another strong quarter with our EBITDA margin reaching 21%, which is 3 percentage points up from Q4 2023. For the full year 2024, our EBITDA margin before special items was 10% of sales, compared to 18% in 2023, a 2 percentage point increase between years.

The increase in our EBITDA margin was driven by same drivers as for quarter four. However, the currency impact, net of FX, was neutral compared to 2023. Net profit came in at $19 million, or 8% of sales, for the quarter and was on par with Q4 2023. For the full year, net profit grew 70% and amounted to $69 million, or 8% of sales, 8% of sales, compared to $69 million, or 7% of sales in 2023.

Net profit was positively impacted by strong growth rate in profit during the year, but negatively impacted by net financial items driven by negative impacts on balance sheet items due to currency movements. If you please turn to the next slide for a status on our cash flow and leverage. During the fourth quarter, CAPEX was $8 million and below 4% of sales. CAPEX has come down in the last couple of quarters relative to the first part of 2024, as facility expansion programs to support our growth have now been concluded. All things equal, CAPEX is expected to return to more normalized levels of 3%-4% of sales in the coming periods.

In the fourth quarter, we continue to deliver strong cash flow driven by solid cash generation from our operations. Additionally, positive effects come from working capital and lower CAPEX contribution to stronger cash flow. Inventories remain slightly elevated following the build-up of new bionic solutions in preparation for full launch of our two bionic knee solutions, as Sveinn mentioned earlier. On the leverage, we see our net interest-bearing debt to EBITDA ratio returned to our targeted range of 2x-3x EBITDA.

At year-end, our net interest-bearing debt to EBITDA before special items was 2.4x. As announced by Sveinn in the beginning of this call, we will initiate a new share buyback program, and further details on the program will be communicated shortly. With this, all of the financial statements are handed over to you again.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thank you, Arna. And if you can please go to the next slide. On Outlook, we came out of 2024 in a strong manner, and we are pleased with the progress on our growth 2027 strategy and our ability to execute on our ambitious targets and priorities. For 2025, we are issuing guidance where we expect organic sales growth to be in the range of 5%-8%. In prosthetics and neuro-orthotics, we expect to deliver continued strong performance across regions.

Growth is expected to be supported by solid development in our core business, as well as we expect contributions from the launch of our new bionic knees, NAVII and Icon, from the latter half of this quarter, here in quarter one. In addition, we expect some positive impact on the recent U.S. Medicare coverage expansion for K2 patients.

We expect the upgrades for K2 patients to be selective here in the beginning, as prosthetists will be gaining experience with fixing K2 patients and submitting reimbursement claims. On the Neuro-Orthotics, the ongoing rollout Fior & Gentz product portfolio into new markets is expected to contribute to our growth, leveraging our global commercial infrastructure and our ForMotion on the clinics quarter.

In patient care, we expect good growth in line or above market growth across regions with solid volume growth, increased efficiency in how we deliver patient care, but bearing in mind that EMEA may be somewhat impacted by strong comparison in 2025 compared to 2024, lastly, patient support is expected to grow approximately in line with market growth, with solid growth in key regions and product categories here in 2025.

For 2025, all things equal, our EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 20%-21% for the year. The EBITDA margin is expected to be positively impacted by our sales performance, a favorable product mix from high-end solutions, continued efficiency in manufacturing, and continued focus on cost control in SG&A. Potential impact as a result of U.S. trade tariffs has not been reflected in the guidance due to the uncertainty around the situation. As this becomes clearer, we will provide more specific communication around potential impact to our business and with relevant guidance.

At the current foreign exchange rates, FX is expected to have a largely neutral impact on the EBITDA margin compared to 2024, assuming all other factors remain constant. With this overview, our presentation is now concluded, and we would like to open the call for questions. Operator, please move to the next slide, and the Q&A can begin.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press five stars on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question again, please press five stars once more. We will have a brief pause while questions are being registered. The first question is from the line of Yiwei Zhou from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Good morning. It's fine, Arna. Thank you for taking my question. I have three questions, and I'll do one at a time. Firstly, looking at the report, you mentioned there's competitive pressure in the bracing and the support business in selected markets. Could you please elaborate a bit here what markets and the specific product category you see the competition? And I will do a follow-up after that.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yeah, Yiwei, thanks for your question. A relatively large part of our bracing business is in the United States, and that's where we record some competitive pressure. Specifically, you could say the high-volume, more commoditized product categories. But just to also remind, there are the basis of competition in bracing and support is largely on being a complete provider.

These are fundamental solutions in each and every healthcare system. And yeah, again, about being a complete provider of a quality product portfolio at a competitive price point. But looking at last year, it's mainly in the United States. We really have seen good performance and growth largely in line with markets in all other major geographies, where specifically our osteoarthritis bracing, which is growing nicely.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay. Could you confirm that it's not the premium segment where you had a strong position, you see increased competition? So it's only the commoditized low-end products?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

I would say that it's more concentrated on, you could say, the high-volume, more simple products. That's fair to say.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay, cool, and in this context, and when looking at the potential risk from the new tariffs, the U.S. tariffs, do you think you have an advantage or disadvantage compared to your main competitors here in the U.S.? I mean, when you compare to your production setup or supply chain.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yeah, that's a great question. And first and foremost, there remains, as we all know, uncertainty on how and if and when tariffs will be implemented. But the main question will be around whether these changes will somehow distort relative competitiveness or change relative competitiveness between the different players in the market. Many of the, or at least the larger bracing and support, our main competitors in bracing and support do also rely on supply chains in similar geographies.

So our assumption is that these tariffs will change the competitive landscape aspect. But with that being said, smaller players that might have some competitive advantage, but we don't expect this to fundamentally change their relative competitiveness.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Yeah. And do you have knowledge about the production setup of your main competitors? I mean, we know you have the bracing support production in China and also Mexico, where there's a lot of uncertainty.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yeah. Yes, we have some knowledge of that, of course. But I can say that it is not uncommon for companies in our industry and in many other similar healthcare verticals to rely on supply chains that are situated in Mexico as well as China and Southeast Asia.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay. Okay, fair enough. Thanks. And my next question is on patient care. And you talked about in this quarter, the sales growth was impacted by timing between quarters. Could you elaborate a bit on this? Do you refer to the normal seasonality? Or is there anything else I have missed?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

No, I think it's great as in the main thing is that we, and we did talk about this when we reported quarter four last year, is that we had somewhat of a one-off positive effect from revenue recognition in one of our patient care entities here in Europe. That in fact, that sort of boosted our growth here in quarter four last, or let's say in 2023. So we're comparing to that quarter. There is maybe some element of more base being lost, productive base, due to how holidays fell this year towards the end of the year. But that is not a main factor, and I don't expect any demand shifting into quarter one because of this. It's more just this extraordinary comparison rather than anything else.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay. And could you remind me that what is the normal growth in the patient care? You talk about in 2025, you expect to grow in line or higher than the market growth?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

What we have referred to as sort of the average market growth in patient care is sort of somewhere between 3% and 5% market growth rate.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay. Great. Thank you. My last question is on the share buyback program. You resume the program at a leverage 2.4x net debt to EBITDA. But can we understand that you don't expect any acquisition in the near term? I mean, you're talking two to three times, but I mean, 2.4x is not that low, I would say. So now you resume the share buyback program.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

I wouldn't necessarily say that you should not expect M&A. We do have an M&A pipeline, and we are looking at opportunities there. However, we've always said that we will manage our capital structure to stay within this range and look at share buybacks to regulate that. We feel that now that we are below the midpoint of the range, that it's the right thing to do to initiate share buybacks.

Yiwei Zhou
Equity Analyst, SEB

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you. I'll jump back to the queue.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thanks, Yiwei.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Martin Brenøe from Nordea. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Martin Brenøe
Associate Director and Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions, Arna and Sveinn. And congrats with the Q4 and the guidance here. Maybe just a question to the U.S. coverage expansion and how to think about it. I think one of your peers has been a bit upbeat about the near-term growth of the U.S. coverage expansion.

And I'm just wondering how you see this coverage expansion. I see that you are seeing some patients are being rolled in, but how is it embedded to your guidance? That's sort of the first question, how it's impact on your guidance. And the second question would be, as far as I understand, the product launches that you have now rolled out more or less fully is a major component or walks sort of hand in hand with the U.S. coverage expansion.

Can you maybe just tell us whether you were completely ready for this U.S. coverage expansion compared to your peers, or if you are a little bit behind your competitors from a product perspective and you need to do some catch-up during 2025? That would be the first question from my side.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Hi, Martin, and thanks a lot for your question. On the LCD, I would say that this is developing in line with how we expected this to develop. What we feel from our customers is that they are cautious. They are however starting to build a pipeline around potential candidates for bracing or bionics for K2 patients, and that is also the development within our own patient care, so we have always from the outset here said that this would happen gradually, and the most important thing to keep in mind is that now a much larger part of the patient population has access to better mobility devices.

So you will see the average, you could say the average value of each event, if you could say, in terms of just new bracing being of higher value, which is great for the patient, even though it's a more, you could say, costly event for payers. From the outset, it's still a cost-effective over the long term.

And that's the logic for why the system chose to go down that road. We have the products that are eligible, you could say, for and fit the criteria that are set out as part of this reimbursement directive. So we are by all means ready, and we have a large effort from our reimbursement team in the U.S. that has been willing and proactively reaching out to customers to support their processes around reimbursement.

But I think it's normal that the O&P community is cautious and as well just very, very responsible when it comes to how we adopt this new reimbursement, these new reimbursement protocols. And that we take it one step at a time. But so far, so good. But also you mentioned how does this tie back to guidance.

I refer back to the, you could say, our medium-term guidance that we laid out that the market stayed 5%-7% growth. Now we're positioning guidance 5%-8%. So all is equal. What needs to happen for us to deliver at the upper end is, of course, this moving, let's say that we have good progress on these changes in the U.S. as well as good progress with our newly launched products. And so I think that'll be my answer. I would not like to comment too much on what our competitors are saying here.

Martin Brenøe
Associate Director and Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

That's very clear and very thorough. Thank you for that question. And then just two more questions from my side. I'll try to be brief here on your capital allocation and the share buyback you're doing or expecting to reinitiate shortly. Can you maybe just elaborate a little bit on what exactly is holding you back from just starting it now, given where you are?

And secondly, I guess that you have quite a, as you also referred to in your prepared remarks, a quite solid cash flow bringing the debt levels sort of to a sensible level quite shortly. Are you ready or do you have more bandwidth also from an organizational perspective to start doing M&A again? Or are you still in the process Fior & Gentz at the moment?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

We do have the internal bandwidth to continue our M&A strategy with these small, medium-sized type of acquisition and being also open for the right opportunities around product and technology in line with, you could say, Fior & Gentz and Naked Prosthetics acquisitions we've done in the last couple of years. But on the share buybacks, I mean, we will announce that just very, very shortly. There's nothing holding us back there, and we should be announcing that just, yeah, in the next days.

Martin Brenøe
Associate Director and Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Okay. That's very clear, and then just the last question from my side is also on the tariffs. When I sort of tried to calculate the exposure to Mexico, I got to sort of one-third approximately of your cost base coming from Mexico. Is that fair to assume or is that too high?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

That is too high. We would not like to maybe go into a specific split on our COGS down to locations, but that is too high. Our view on, yeah, for the time being, we are not ready to communicate too much around potential impact because there's just a lot of uncertainty on how these tariffs will, and if they will, come into. Now it's being delayed for a month, these Mexico tariffs.

The China tariffs seem to be in place, the 10% on all product categories. But let's say when tariffs were impacted on China back in 2018, medical devices were exempt. We still don't fully see whether that is still the case or whether medical devices will be included. That is still to be fully fleshed out. So I would hesitate to comment too much on it simply because there is not, yeah, we don't know or we simply can't make up any reasonable assumptions for the time being.

Operator

Okay. That's very clear. I'll jump back in the queue. I got a couple of more, but I'll let my peers also ask some questions. Thank you.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thanks, Martin. Thank you very much.

Operator

And in the next in queue, we have Tobias Nissen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Tobias Nissen
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Good morning. I also have two questions from my side. So we saw organic growth pick up in the U.S. with EMEA and APAC slowing down here in Q4. What should we think about growth trajectory going forward? We obviously have new launches in the U.S. that will pick up here in 2025. And then a question on EBITDA margin and margins like in total, we have gross margin being quite strong here in Q4. What are the moving parts for EBITDA margin? What should we take care of or notice here in 2025? Thanks.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

On the geographic split, yes. I mean, if you look at 2024, if we dial back 12 months when we set guidance for 2024, we expected more, you could say, balance in the contribution between our two major regions, Europe and the U.S., U.S. has been slower than what we anticipated, while Europe has been better. What we've also talked about is that 2023 was perhaps a year where we did release some pent-up demand from all the turbulence we've had related to COVID in the prior year. So you could say that in the Americas, at least we were battling a little bit strong comparison from 2023.

We do see these trend lines change here a bit towards the end of 2024 where Americas is getting, you could say, more back on track while Europe is still strong, but with the exception of patient care here in quarter four where we talked about the comparison issue. So I think the way to think about 2025 is that we would expect some more balanced contribution between the two regions than what we see here for 2024. That is what I can say about that. Do you want to comment on how to think about EBITDA margin for 2025? The moving parts.

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

I think generally speaking, the EBITDA is that we will always see some impact from price increases and payroll increases, but offset by continuous improvements being implemented in our manufacturing side. Also, acquisition can impact that as well. But overall, those are the big blocks in EBITDA.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yeah. And it goes hand in hand with how our top line develops, obviously. But as Arna mentioned, it's top line, it's product mix, it's continuous improvement on our unit cost, and continuation in us managing our SG&A in line with our top line development. And these are similar factors as contributed to good progress on our EBITDA margin last year. And this was also a big topic for us here.

When we set guidance for 2024, we were firm that we needed to take action also on our manufacturing or operational footprint where we had some excess capacity again following the supply chain turbulence we've seen in 2022 and 2023. So we did that adjustment here in the beginning of the year and have seen these things come through. And I'm just pleased to be able to add in the upper end of the guidance we set a year ago on EBITDA margin. And now we are signaling that we intend to take further steps to gradually improve our operating margins.

Tobias Nissen
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Very good. Thanks.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thanks, Tobias.

Operator

Next in the queue, we have Niels Leth from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Niels Leth
Head of Equity Research, Carnegie

Thank you. Just a couple of questions here. So the growth acceleration you experienced in Americas in quarter four, was there any of this growth acceleration that could be attributed to the increased access for K2 patients? And my second question would be on your EBITDA margin guidance for 2025 and the FX effect. So you're expecting a neutral FX effect. But the euro has come down and quite many emerging markets' currencies have come down. So could you just elaborate on the expected FX effect for 2025? Thank you.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yes, Niels. Hi. Thanks for your question. On the impact from the LCD change in the U.S., very marginal effect here in quarter four. What did provide a small boost, especially to our prosthetics growth, is that we are moving forward with this limited launch of the NAVII that still impacted our growth positively here in quarter four, but no meaningful impact from the LCD change. Arna, can you comment on the FX piece?

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

The euro dollar is down around in Q4, and sorry, Mr. Nissen, just a bit of a question. You're asking about?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

You're asking about Niels. Sorry. You're asking about the potential impact from FX changes on margin guidance for 2025.

Niels Leth
Head of Equity Research, Carnegie

For 2025, yes.

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

For 2025. We're not expecting any material impact on the margin guidance for 2025. It's just.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yeah, and if you look at quarter four here, Niels, the impact was neutral, which gives some indication as to how it's just given the sort of development of the dollar versus euro, but just to sort of remind us about the main moving parts here, we generate a big part of our sales in costs and dollars.

We also have a reasonably sizable contribution from euro-denominated currencies, but we do have, let's say, an unhedged position in the euro exposure because we have more sales than costs in euros, but usually, if the Icelandic króna, because we have 10% of our cost in Icelandic króna but no income, usually if the Icelandic króna correlates largely with the euro versus the dollar, we have a natural hedge on about 70% of our costs and income from a currency standpoint.

There's a long list of different currencies for the remaining 30% of sales and costs that can cause some fluctuation. At least looking at quarter four here, that should give some indication as to how currency fluctuations could impact the full year 2025.

Niels Leth
Head of Equity Research, Carnegie

Then just finally, what do you expect for net working capital in 2025?

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

It's going to be no material effect from net working capital in 2025.

Niels Leth
Head of Equity Research, Carnegie

So if you frame that into net working capital through sales, how would you expect that to end?

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

So we've been seeing inventory coming down when it comes to as a percentage of sales in the last quarters. But as we've been building up now inventory to launch NAVII and Icon, it might be slightly elevated, but we don't expect that to be a material effect though.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

For other working capital items, inventory and AP, I wouldn't expect any material change, just in relative terms versus sales.

Arna Sveinsdóttir
CFO, Embla Medical

Just see that basically the seasonal change quarter on quarter as we've seen in the past.

Niels Leth
Head of Equity Research, Carnegie

Okay. Thank you.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Thank you.

Operator

Next in the line, we have Martin Brenøe again from Nordea. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Martin Brenøe
Associate Director and Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Thank you. I just have one follow-up. Some of the questions were already asked by my peers here, but maybe just one on the trajectory for 2025 with the snowball effect of the U.S. coverage expansion gradually, I guess, contributing more and the comparison base gradually becoming easier through the year. Would it be fair to assume that you will start in the lower end of the guidance or maybe slightly below the guidance and then accelerate through the year? Or how should we sort of see the trajectory of the run rate for 2025?

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Hi, Martin. I wouldn't want to comment too much or give too much detailed guidance on sort of quarter by quarter. We will be having a conversation here, obviously, every quarter on just how we're progressing with these LCD changes as well as these new product launches. But as always, let's say the relative performance year over year will be impacted by how we did in the prior year. And so, yeah, please take that into consideration. And I don't expect any material difference between quarters as I look at things now, if that helps.

Martin Brenøe
Associate Director and Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

That's very clear. Thank you very much.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Welcome.

Operator

As there are no further questions at this moment, I will hand it back to Sveinn Sölvason for any closing remarks.

Sveinn Sölvason
President and CEO, Embla Medical

Yes. Thank you very much, operator, and thanks everyone for listening. And if you have any further questions, or would like to discuss the quarter of the year, please reach out through our Investor Relations Team. And I wish you a great day. Thanks a lot.

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