Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for listening in on our earnings call for the Q4 and full year report for 2020. My name is Soren Skou. I'm the CEO of APM Molymersk, and I'm joined today here by Patrick Jany, our CFO. Now 2020 will be remembered for the COVID-nineteen pandemic. It negatively impacted our lives, our health, jobs, business and the global economy.
Our response to COVID-nineteen pandemic has, from the outset, been to keep our employees safe, help our customers and support them in running their global supply chains as smooth as possible and to help societies fight the pandemic. We are very proud of our employees who have worked around the clock to keep the world's goods flowing in the best possible way and in some, in the front line and while others have worked for months from home. In 2020, we made significant progress, both in our Global Integrated Strategy and on the financials despite the pandemic. We are today a more profitable, growing Global logistics company that offers a broad portfolio of logistics products from ocean and air transport to inland transportation, warehousing and distribution, custom services and lead logistic products such as supply chain management and e comm fulfillment as well as container port services. Financially, as you can see on the numbers, we delivered a strong value creating result in 2020 and strong free cash flow, And we leave the year with a strong balance sheet and plenty of firepower.
Our financial performance has allowed us to continue to distribute cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, and that will continue in 2021. With the dividend we are announcing today and previously announced Share buyback, we're planning to distribute more than $2,250,000,000 more than $2,000,000,000 of U. S. Dollars 2,000,000,000 to shareholders this year, which is equal to more than or around 6% of the current market cap of the company. So moving to the next slide, which you are quite familiar with.
Over the last 4 years, we have been very disciplined in the execution of the strategy. And this is despite the backdrop of weak trade growth since 2016, Ongoing trade tensions between China and the U. S, geopolitical uncertainty, a fuel switch to significantly more expensive low sulfur fueled at the beginning of last year and since 2020 pandemic. And all through this period, we have made financial progress since 2016. Frankly, we are quite pleased we can deliver a growing earnings and cash trajectory while facing all of these challenges in a so called cyclical industry.
And this is now the 10th quarter the Q4 of 2020 is now the 10th quarter a consecutive quarter where we have achieved year on year increases in our operating earnings. The work we have done over the past 5 years in Ocean, and by that I mean, for instance, the 2M Alliance that has helped us take out 100 of 1,000,000 of costs the acquisition of Hamburg Sud, which has added further scale and competitiveness The disciplined approach to CapEx, the digitization and development of unique products such as mask spot, All of that has come together to deliver solid progress, and we are today we today have a much stronger Ocean business than we had 5 years ago. At the same time, our Logistics business is really poised to take off. We have solved our margin issue, and we are now starting to deliver meaningful growth both organically and inorganically. And in Terminals, we have executed well on a turnaround since 2016, shifting focus from developing new terminals to being a world class operator of terminals.
And results and cash generation has steadily improved, And we now have an infrastructure business with resilient returns also when a pandemic results in lower volumes. Now turning to Q4, which was a record quarter in several ways despite the pandemic still impacting the world. While our earnings growth in the 1st twothree of 2020 was driven very much by our own actions on cost, on margins and was achieved despite the headwinds of lower volumes. Q4 was positively impacted by the tailwinds of growing volumes and higher freight rates. Year on year, we grew revenue 16 percent to $11,300,000,000 in Q4.
Operating earnings were 85 were up 85 percent to $2,700,000,000 and we doubled free cash flow to 1,700,000,000 In Q4, we delivered the best ever quarterly earnings result in Ocean and in Logistics and in Terminals. In absolute terms, our strong performance is, of course, driven by higher volumes and rates in Ocean. The tailwinds experienced in the Q4 have continued into the Q1, and we expect the Q1 of 20 21 to be to have a result that is above our 4th quarter result. Whether demand stay strong once the world is reopening. All consumers will spend all their money on services.
All remains to be seen. However, what I can say is that we will continue to respond by serving our customers, matching supply to demand in the same way as we did very successfully in 2020. Right now, I guess you can say the Ocean spot rates are overshadowing the real and significant progress across our business. We had record results in all segments this quarter, but I'm particularly pleased about the progress in Logistics. And I see our performance as a strong proof point for our integrated strategy.
Revenue was up 35% year on year and 9% since the Q3 and above $2,000,000,000 for the first time in logistics, and margins were good. We now have a logistics business with a run rate Revenue around $8,000,000,000 and an EBITDA run rate of around $600,000,000 And we plan to continue to grow both organically and inorganically in the coming years. Also, I think it's worth highlighting for Q4 that free cash flow basically doubled to $1,700,000,000 and driven by higher earnings, solid cash conversion and low CapEx. Now moving to Slide 7. As I mentioned before, we kept improving our financial results while also accelerating on executing on our strategy enabled us to improve all of our and that has enabled us to improve all of our transformation metrics.
In particular, I'm pleased that we managed to improve the ROIC the ROIC return on invested capital to 9.6% underlying after years of not being in a position of creating economic value. Secondly, I want to highlight the revenue growth in our Infrastructure and Logistics business of 22% in Q4, as we have increased revenue in logistics from warehousing and distribution and supply chain management and in Terminals due to increased volumes. Now I'm happy to show you a new slide that is picturing the way we think about creating value in Maersk. It all starts with our 3 core segments: Logistics and Services, Ocean and Terminals, where we believe there is a strong opportunity within each to improve the underlying profitability. Therefore, we have accelerated the transformation efforts for each of these three businesses.
For Logistics and Services, our transformation is creating a broad and sizable full scale and digitally enabled product portfolio that is relevant to our customers and simultaneously improve the efficiency of the products we sell to ensure that we are competitive. Our historic performance, while catching up, does provide opportunities to improve margins in this segment. And we have been building capabilities significantly over the past year and start to see the first results, as I've just highlighted in Q4, of the results both in terms of growth and in terms of profitability. For Ocean, this transformation is about creating a modern and differentiated offering that better suit our customer needs and pulls our Ocean business out of the commodity trap we had fallen in. As exemplified by the launch of the Maersk spot, a unique product with two way commitment.
Continuously reducing costs also remains a focus area for us, And we will look to leverage technology to further reduce our operating costs and transform our operations to stabilize our earnings at a good level. In our Terminals business, we have strong traction over the past years in transforming from a developer into a world class operator, improving our margins significantly in the process. As we continue this journey, there's still good potential to improve our profitability in this segment, including leveraging opportunities for automation to improve safety and efficiency. In other words, we believe We can create 3 businesses in logistics, ocean and terminals that are world class in their own right. The synergies between Ocean and the 2 other segments are the value that we can create over and beyond the segment improvements.
It is the synergies that make us the best owners of Logistics and Services, Ocean and the Terminal Business. The synergies are different in nature. Between Ocean and Logistics Services, it is really customer synergies and an aspiration to create much better customer outcomes for our in Logistics and Services and Ocean, which in turn will result in shareholder value creation and more stable earnings and cash flow generation. Between Ocean and Terminals, It is financial and operational synergies, leveraging our volumes to monetize and derisk terminals and using our terminal operating skills to drive efficiency and liability for our Ocean Network. This is a synergy case that plays to our existing strengths and which is directly shareholder value accretive.
It is possible to reap one set of these two synergies without the other synergies and vice versa, and they are not depending on each other. And we have decided to focus both on customer synergies between Ocean and Logistics and financial and operational synergies between Ocean and Terminals. This is unique in our industry. Finally, the technology enablement is critically important and will enable integration of data and operations to define the next level of operational excellence, permit creation of new products and services to customers and facilitate a seamless and contemporary customer experience end to end. We will use our scale to create a world class technology capability across all businesses.
Finally, we will progress on sustainability as well as accelerate our commitment to decarbonization, leading our industry, and you will hear more about this during 2021. You will also hear more about how we think about value creation at our Capital Markets Day that we are inviting for in May. Now moving to the next slide. We briefly introduced you to the transformation metrics that we will track in the coming phase of our strategic transformation and the strategic value creation model. This will be the leading indicators for how we are progressing over the next years.
While we continue to track our overall progress in creating shareholder value through measuring our return on invested capital at APMall and Maersk level, The focus on segment level will concentrate on the organic growth and profitability in Logistics Services and organic growth in Gateway Terminals. When we grow these businesses, both in revenue and profitability, it adds to creating a more stable business model. On a more nonfinancial way of looking at our progress, we will focus on the growth in cross selling revenue between Logistics and Services and the large ocean customers so that we can demonstrate the customer synergies. And we will focus on the progress in digitizing the product offering In Ocean, we are in spot, which will give you an indication of our ability to create the synergies that I talked to on the previous slide. We We will report on these on a quarterly basis, and we'll provide you with some more firm targets at our Capital Markets Day in May this year.
With this, let me hand over to Patrick, who will take you through the financials and the segments.
Good morning to all from my side as well. Turning to Slide 11. We can see that profitability improved significantly in Q4, with the net result reaching SEK 1,300,000,000 from a loss a year ago. The improvement came from all three main businesses: Ocean, Logistics and Services and Terminals and Towage. In absolute terms, Ocean was the main driver, benefiting from extraordinary market conditions, improving by more than $1,000,000,000 as a result of the uneven rebound in demand, which resulted in bottlenecks across the supply chain, driving higher volumes and freight rates.
Logistics and Services increased their earnings by more than 5x, driven mainly by Intermodal and Performance Team and the fact that last year was impacted by negative one offs. Overall, our EBITDA increased 85%, reaching SEK 2,700,000,000 and the EBITDA margin reached 24.1% compared with 15.1% the previous year. Consequently, EBIT increased 4.5x to 1,600,000,000 compared to SEK 342,000,000 in Q4 2019, leading to an EBIT margins of 14.2% compared to 3.5% last year. The other positions are the fairly small impact on our profitability. The increased depreciation, amortization and impairments was mainly driven by higher depreciation in logistics and services from acquisitions and from a smaller impairment in one of our hub terminals.
The positive impact from disposals was caused by the recognition of the final piece of the Maersk Container Industry sale of the Dongguang factory in China and some other small sale of assets. The tax decreased positively, impacted, amongst others, by effect from the CARES Act in the United States and several tax provision adjustments. This strong quarter contributed, As expected and guided for, to the strong EBITDA of SEK 8,200,000,000 for the year, equivalent to an underlying EBITDA of SEK 8,300,000,000. When reflecting on the year, it is clear that the performance has been impacted by the pandemic, first with a significant reduction of volumes in the first half of 2020 and later by bottlenecks across the supply chain, distorting market conditions, particularly in Q4. It is our best estimate that the net effect of volumes, cost and rates has increased operational It's SEK 2,900,000,000 for the full year 2020, which given the ample liquidity headroom, allows the Board of Directors to recommend a dividend of DKK 330 per share to the AGM on March 23, which is equivalent to a payout ratio of 35% And more than double the DKK 150 per share dividend in 2019.
Now turning to Slide 12. Cash flow from operations was strong, improving 67% to SEK 2,600,000,000 on the back of an increase in EBITDA and despite of the small deterioration of net working capital. Cash conversion was still high at 95% compared to 105% last year. Free cash flow in the quarter was EUR 1,700,000,000 after considering capitalized lease installments and gross CapEx and was used to repay debt and to start the new share buyback program. On a yearly basis, We generated a free cash flow of CHF 4,600,000,000 which was used for CHF 500,000,000 for acquisitions CHF 1,300,000,000 to return cash to shareholders and reduce our debt by SEK 2,500,000,000 Net interesting Bearing debt now amounts to SEK 9,200,000,000 only.
And it is worth mentioning that excluding these liabilities, net financial debt equals just €500,000,000 compared to €3,100,000,000 at year end 2019. Let us now turn to the business development and starting with Ocean on Slide 13. Revenue in Ocean grew 16% on the back of volumes increasing 3.2% as demand picked up fast after the slowdown in the previous quarters. Also, the sudden pickup in demand has led to a number of bottlenecks in the supply chain, which has driven the short term rates to increase significantly. This, combined with a continued record high utilization, led to a doubling of the EBITDA from SEK 1,100,000,000 to SEK 2,200,000,000 and an EBITDA margin of 26.7%.
Further progress was made in offering digital solution to our customers. In Maersk spot once again had a large share of our short term volume. By the end of the Q4, the share of loaded volumes accounted for more than 50 percent of our spot volumes on a 4 weeks basis, on par with Q3. On Slide 14, We can see that the EBITDA increased in Q4, mainly driven by the extraordinary short term environment of capacity constraints And bottlenecks and equipments, containers and vessels and ports. This situation impacted rates significantly and contributed to a EUR 1,100,000,000 increase in EBITDA alone.
Lower bunker costs and increased volumes also helped to the quarter, but were offset by the higher cost of operations incurred as we try to manage the disruptions to maintain the flow of goods and help our customers. The container handling costs, therefore, increased 127,000,000 And the network cost and bunker consumption increased by SEK 130,000,000. SG and A and other costs increased mainly as a result Our general one off bonus to all staff. And we also had close to EUR 100,000,000 up against us on a noncash unrealized loss on hedges as a result of the increased oil price. Turning to Slide 15.
Our average freight rates increased by 18% in the quarter, driven by demand surges, especially in China U. S. Trade, combined with exceptional market conditions driven by bottlenecks across the supply chain, including vessel and equipment shortages. We do expect that the tailwind from this situation and the impact on freight rates will last throughout Q1 and start easing in Q2. As Soren was alluding to earlier, it is really hard to predict the demand patterns for 2021.
However, looking ahead, on the rates and volumes we have seen so far, we would believe that Q1 2021 should be better then Q4 2020, where after we expect things to normalize. In Q4, we continue to focus on facilitating our long term customer supply chains to meet their requirements, which added to increase volumes from our long term contracts. By now, we have concluded around 40% of all our long term contracts for the coming year, And we have seen contract rates increase across the board. As a base rate for the different routes and services At very different levels, it does not make sense to give you an average U. S.
Dollar amount, but I will say that we are happy about the level we have agreed with our customers. Total volumes for the Q4 increased by 3.2%, driven by headhaul as demand surged, while backhaul volumes was largely flat. After a partial recovery in Q3, the growth momentum in Latin America, in particular, slowed in the 4th quarter. As congestions in the supply chain on various trades continued, especially in terminals, container handling costs increased, leading to a slight increase in total operating cost of 1.2%. Bunker cost Also took a significant drop in the 4th quarter and declined by 14%, driven by bunker price decreasing 16% to 3.23 dollars per tonne and higher utilization.
The bunker efficiency worsened by 0.2%, which were mainly driven by a margin increase in network speed, and our reliability was negatively impacted in the quarter as a result of the volatility in demand. When we talk about our costs in the Q4, it is important to keep in mind that we have not set up the network to have the lowest absolute cost. Due to the bottlenecks in the supply chain and the challenges our customers are facing, we have set up the network to help our customers meet their needs in the best possible way and added more moves, more feeders and sped up vessels where appropriate. We therefore expect the temporary elevated cost structure to normalize once the bottlenecks due to COVID-nineteen disappear and are confident in our ability to keep taking out costs going forward. On Slide 17, we turn our attention to the success story of the quarter, our Logistics and Services business, which kept its Positive momentum in revenue and reported a 35% increase to a record high of $2,100,000,000 The growth was driven by both inorganic and organic growth, mainly supported by Supply Chain Management, Airfreight Forwarding, Intermodal and Acquisitions.
Gross profit increased 57%, with the gross profit margin improving to almost 25%. And EBITDA grew more than fivefold to $158,000,000 The increase in profitability is led by intermodal margin improvement, strong rates in airfreight forwarding, Earnings from performance team in North America and the integration of KEH in Europe, strengthening the offering of end to end solutions. We are very pleased to see Logistics and Services delivering such strong results and growing in a profitable way. Slide 18 shows the development of gross profit and EBIT conversion in our Logistics and Services segment, This has shown a clear improvement in the last year. Our EBIT conversion improved in the quarter to 18.7%, continuing the nice constant progression of our EBIT conversion.
We have also shown a table on this slide, which shows a positive and significant contribution from the acquisitions, adding €197,000,000 in revenue and EUR 27,000,000 in EBITDA. But equally important is that you can also see that 2 third of the growth in Q1 It was actually organic growth with $335,000,000 while EBITDA grew by close to $100,000,000 organically, also given the low previous year basis. This is a direct proof of our strategy working and our focus on improving margins. On Page 19, we turn to Terminals and Torch, where EBITDA increased by 20%, driven by higher volumes in Gateway Terminals. EBITDA in gateway terminals increased to $316,000,000 and the EBITDA margin increased by 4 percentage points to 36%, while Towage continued to show resilience in a difficult environment.
Turning to the next slide. We have visualized the effects from volumes, revenue and costs on the EBITDA of gateway terminals. Volume increased like for like by 1% with significant variations across regions, with volumes in Europe increasing 2.1% and in North America by 1.5%, while volumes in Africa and the Middle East decreased by 4.7%. As in our Ocean business, we also saw bottlenecks in our Terminals business, especially in the U. S.
And we are also exposed, to a larger degree, to the North South trades, which have not experienced the same spikes as on the Pacific. Revenue per move increased by 1.9 percent to 2.17 positively impacted by higher revenue in Los Angeles and Port Elizabeth in the U. S. As a result of congested U. S.
Supply chain, including an increased dwell time. This was partially offset by rate of exchange impact in the African and Latin American regions, while cost per move decreased 4.6 percent to $2.20 mainly driven by the increase in volumes, Lower costs and a positive one off. Turning to Manufacturing and Others. We reported a decrease in EBITDA, mainly due to Maersk Supply Services suffering in a tough environment, while Maersk Container Industry had another strong quarter. With that, I'll pass the word to Soren for the full year guidance.
Thank you, Patrick. And let me just say that given the outlook and, if you will, despite the high degree of uncertainty related to the continued impact for COVID-nineteen On economic growth and global demand, we expect continued progress in 2021 and better results in 2021 than we do in we had in 2020. We're guiding an underlying EBITDA range in the of $8,500,000,000 to 10.5 $1,000,000,000 compared to $8,300,000,000 in 2020. That corresponds to underlying EBIT in the range of $4,300,000,000 to 6.3 compared to $4,200,000,000 in 2020. And then we are guiding free cash flow above $3,500,000,000 compared to $4,600,000,000 in 2020.
As part of the full year guidance in 2020, we expect the current as we have already said, the current exceptional situation with demand surge leading to bottlenecks in the supply chain and equipment shortage, which contributed to approximately 1,500,000,000 to EBIT in 2020. We expect that to continue in Q1 and normalize thereafter. And therefore, we expect the Q1 2020 to come in above the Q4 of 2020. Ocean is expected to grow in line with the global container demand at an back to 3% to 5% in 2021, with the highest growth seen in the 1st part of the year. For the years 2021 to 2022, The accumulated CapEx is still expected to be $4,500,000,000 to $5,500,000,000 And with this, I'm happy to open for questions.
Thank you. And we will now begin the question and answer First question is from the line of Robert Joynson from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning, Soren and Patrick. I have three questions, please. The first couple on rates. So to begin with, if we look at the recent spike in rates, in particular during the final months Of 2020. Could you maybe just provide some color on the extent to which you think that, that spike was driven by a tight supply demand balance on the shipping side versus a general lack of availability on the equipment side, please?
And then a second question related to that. Could you maybe also just provide some color on the extent to which you're now seeing container availability improving? And then the third question on CapEx. CapEx was about $1,300,000,000 in 2020 and the run rate was Slightly above that level in Q4. If we look at the guidance, the high end is more Double that level on average for this year and next.
You've been pretty clear that you don't expect to order A significant number of new ships from what I can see. Can you maybe just provide some additional color there for on how you expect that additional CapEx To be deployed, particularly in terms of spend on new containers. Thank you.
Yes, Rob, thanks. So in terms of rates, I think, first of all, it should be What's going on? One is, of course, that consumer demand has been very strong during since August last year as consumers have been spending some of the money that they could not spend on travel and restaurant visits and events, They've been spending on products, and we, of course, have benefited from that. I think we are also benefiting from an inventory cycle, where companies many, many companies, many retail companies really scaled down their purchases of goods in the Q2 last year and well into the summer in Asia. And then they found out Certainly, as fall came and consumer demand held up, that they had too few goods on the shelf, so to speak, and lost sales.
So retailers are restocking, combined with strong demand from the consumer. That has been driving this massive Growth in demand, as you've seen the numbers on the U. S, I mean, it's really extraordinary. And between capacity and Vessel capacity and container capacity is really hard for us to separate, if you will, the hot and the cold water. And I'm not sure it's that important either.
I mean reality is that The global fleet and the global container fleet was able to carry global trade very well through 2019 2020 in the 1st three quarters. And then we saw spikes in the U. S. Of 25% growth and so on, 40%, I think it was in November. And the fixed capacity system is simply not geared to handle that kind of volatility.
So As the inventory cycle,
if you will,
resolves itself, I mean, at some point, Retail will have restocked, Then we are back to the basic demand of the consumer to drive our demand. And there, Who knows what happens when you get out of a pandemic? I don't think any of us that are alive have tried the situation. So I think we need to look at it in that way. And then maybe Patrick will talk about CapEx.
Yes, sure. Hi, Rob. So on the CapEx, indeed, we were very disciplined in 2020 with EUR 1,300,000,000 And but we absolutely stick to the guidance, which implies indeed a doubling of The CapEx particularly for 2021. And that, as we previously mentioned, is really driven by the fact that we are Investing in growth, when you see the returns we have, it actually makes sense to invest in the business. And we are doing so by, On the one hand, looking for equipment, so containers are certainly in short supply.
That is certainly part of the investment. As we mentioned, I think, earlier, It also makes more sense for us to actually buy them than to lease them. And therefore, we are also shifting to the previous And normal policy to actually buy the equipment, so we are doing so, which increases the CapEx number. And we have some 1st vessels, smaller vessels replacement coming in as well in 2021 And 2022, so that will be part of the increased CapEx guidance and which we totally maintain. We shouldn't forget as well that terminals has been very restricted And has growth plans as well and automation investments, which would further contribute to higher operation profitability.
And L and S, which is growing, obviously needs a bit more. They haven't received too much in the past. And obviously, warehousing and so on is maybe not the same scale as the other businesses on single investment. But clearly, Our growth expectations and ambition in Logistics drives as well CapEx in that business.
Okay. That's all very clear. Thank you, guys.
Next question is from Muneeb Akiane from Bank of Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Just back on spot rates. Based on your current bookings, what are you seeing in terms of demand? And what is your visibility For the next month or 2 months. And then we've heard from some that some Asian liners have increased New vessel orders.
How do you view that? And how are you thinking about your market shares, Please. And then on logistics, can you give a bit more color on your inorganic growth plans in terms of Size and timing, please. Thank you.
Look, on spot rates, I mean, we are full. And we're full, and spot rates are high, as you can see in the index. And we expect to remain full Also, past Chinese New Year, what is quite extraordinary this year, as I'm sure you have seen In the press, the Chinese government and many companies in China, manufacturers and are encouraging and incentivizing employees actually to stay at work as opposed to do what they usually do, to take a week off and travel back home to their families. So the manufacturing sector in China is doing really good. And so we expect this to run for through the better part of our Q1.
In terms of market share and new vessel orders, we're guiding and we expect to grow in line with the market in Ocean to 3% to 5%. That, of course, implies to maintain our market We have been on new vessel orders, we have we've tried Give you a couple of reference points. I mean, first of all, we have talked for since 2018 about having a 4,000,000 CU of capacity in our network in total, and we still try to keep to that. Right now, we're probably creeping a little bit above as we are trying to Solve all of the bottlenecks that we have, but it is still our guidance that you should not see dramatic deviations from the SEK 4,000,000 We have to replace our tonnage. I mean every day, our fleet our old fleet gets one day older, so there will be some replacement work.
But you should not expect anything dramatic. And then lastly, I think it's important to say also that we are starting to guide you on free cash flow to really try to get out of this constant discussion of whether we are going to order a lot of ships or not. We're going to Order ships to replace our fleet and to make sure that we broadly can maintain our market share, but nothing more than that. And then on inorganic growth, as far as Logistics and Services is concerned. We have said a number of times also last year that our main focus has been to acquire capabilities, to acquire growth platforms.
We have called it bolt on transactions, more than big transformative transactions. We have been very successful with that, we believe. I mean, the couple of acquisitions we made last year were have been really helpful for us, And you should expect to see more, if you will, of that type of acquisitions this year. And then what happens later, we will see as things develop, and I hope we can be more clear in terms of answers to your questions when we get to our Capital Markets Day.
Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Rasmussen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you so much. A couple of questions from my side here. So it clearly sounds like there are no kind of new Fuel Technology in the CapEx guidance for 2021, 2022. But I know, sir, that you've been out talking about that You'll be ready to put down the orders in 2 to 3 years from now.
So obviously, can you share something on what kind of pricing levels Or timing or magnitude are you seeing in the years after 2021, 2022 just in terms of reaching the CO2 Emission targets out there. And then my second question goes a little bit if you could talk about kind of The volume expectations that kind of the run rate during the course of the year, obviously, beyond the Q1, Can you please talk a little bit because obviously the comps from 2020 also varies quite a lot. So if you could just talk about the Various scenarios that you've been putting into this 3% to 5% growth? Thank you.
I have to turn this one on. In terms of volume expectations, Then of course, as you're right, the comps are going to be the percentages are going to look pretty weird, especially when we get to the Q2 where volumes were down 15% last year on year. So we expect 3% to 5% for the year. That means that we are going to get, In 2021, volumes that will be slightly above the absolute level of 2019. And we, of course, are starting the year Strong in that range, 3% to 5% growth and maybe even higher than that.
And we expect it will moderate to the lower end of the range, if you will, in the second half of the year. That's basically our assumption at this point. But as I said before, it's we haven't really been in this situation before of coming out of a pandemic. But that's our expectation. So higher volume growth in the beginning of the year and lower in the second half.
Now in terms of CapEx guidance and fuel technology, I think first of all, we're still working on figuring out what is the best fuel for us for the future. But the alternatives that we are looking at, they are fuels which like alcohols, like ammonia and so on, which basically is using the basic principle of a combustion engine. So that means that if we end up finding exactly the right solution there, then there will be a big retrofit Opportunity for us. And then of course, there already today are engines in the world that are marketed, which run on methanol, also at alcohol, and ammonia engines are under development. And I'm sure they will be more expensive than the ones we do today, but I'm not we're not it's not like we are seeing a huge mountain of CapEx Come at us because of Indian technology.
If we end up where we think we will end up with ammonia or methanol or something like that as a future fuel.
Great. So it's too early for you to put kind of also any numbers on the retrofit per vessel, so to say?
Yes.
Thank you so much.
Next question is from Carolina Dores from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning. I have 2 questions 3 questions actually. The first one is trying to understand a bit more guidance because You are assuming the volumes go up 3% to 5%, so in some way Some resilient demand. And to reach the bottom to achieve the bottom range of your guidance, achieved rates would Have to be flat, why you expect contracted from what I understand, contracted rates 40% so far up. So I just wanted to understand how conservative you're being on guidance, especially if you're guiding for the Q1 of 2021 Above Q4 and volumes to stay capacity to stay full through Chinese New Year.
My second question is a bit of a follow-up on what Muneeba has asked. So far, we've seen a few new orders at the start of the year. How do you see Supply and demand in 2023. And my last question is, With EUR 3,600,000,000 of free cash flow this year and you're focusing more on acquiring Acquiring knowledge more than big M and A, how should we think about Capital deployment in terms of buybacks and dividends. Thank you very much.
Yes. So starting with your first question on the guidance. Indeed, as Soren was saying, it's a bit difficult now to really model all the Variations you can have for 2021. But if we look at the evolution on the volumes, we guide for 3% to 5%, which really puts you back to More or less at 2019 level. So that is more or less the base assumption where we work on.
Then It is really a matter of timing of normalization, how fast it happens, in which trade it happens and to which extent rates normalize within the quarters. That is still up. We guide for a good Q1. That's what we And see, and then obviously, there are different scenarios. If you really look at it with a bit of distance, the lower end of our guidance of 8 point 5% is just a replication of 2020 a bit the other way around, right?
So it's nothing dramatic in a way, but it's Compared to the current level, quite a significant reduction implied in the rates. The higher end is a more smoother normalization. And frankly, probably, the reality will be a bit in between. I think those are 2 wide scenarios. This is why we have also widened the guidance of €2,000,000,000 instead of €1,000,000,000 So we just want to reflect the uncertainty that is in the market, and we'll take it as it comes.
Nevertheless, I would say the most Credible and probable scenarios probably in the middle of those 2. And then it really depends on how extreme the year goes either way. I'll continue on your third question on the use of cash. I think it's first of all, it's good to have some cash. We still have So some debt to repay.
And then when you look at the use of cash, while we are continuing share buyback and return to cash to shareholders, as As we mentioned, we will be returning SEK 2,200,000,000 this year, and there's a strong commitment here to continue to return cash to shareholders. And in terms of growth, clearly, with the ROIC we have, it makes sense to invest in the business as well. That includes organic growth as well. We just talked about CapEx, and there is growth as well in people, in expanding our operations. When you see the Strong progress we have in logistics.
It is definitely the priority of investments both for organic And external as well. So it's not all about acquisitions and so on. It's just about developing And growing particularly the L and S part but also the terminals part. When you look at acquisitions, As we said before, it is, 1st of all, looking at capabilities and then, like we did very successfully in 2020, It's looking for the same kind of opportunities in 2021, and maybe if there's some smaller, bigger That will depend on the opportunities. It takes 2 always to find a good opportunity in the market.
But Overall, I would say we will invest those funds mostly as well in the business, both organically and inorganically.
If I can add to that, on your second question around new orders and so on, If I'm not mistaken, the order book in percentage of existing fleet is around 11% right now. And that is a very, very, frankly, manageable number if global trade is growing 3% to 5%. You have to figure out that around 2% of existing capacity is actually scrapped every year on average. So it's a very moderate growth in capacity coming at us in the coming years. I believe Alfalainen predicting that supply growth after scrapping, also net, will grow around 1.5% in 2023, which was your question.
So this is all very, very manageable. And then I think it's also important point to make, frankly, that what matters is not really how many ships are in the global fleet. What matters for our pricing is how many ships are actually deployed. And as you saw during 2021, Pricing was kept stable as carriers, they adjust the capacity to demand in a very agile manner. And that is Certainly also what we are planning to do in the coming years in Maersk.
Okay. And the next question is from Kasper Blom from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Your line is
Thank you very much. A couple of questions from my side also. First, about unit cost within the Ocean division. 2020 unit cost actually turns out to be a little bit higher than in 2019. You have explained why it went up a bit In Q4, you also warned that it will probably be a little bit elevated also in the beginning of 2021 also.
But how should we think about unit cost For the whole of 2021, is it the usual 1% to 2% decrease? Or is there Actually, a bigger potential to decrease unit cost due to an elevated level in 2020. That's my first question, please.
Yes. Thanks very much for your question. I think obviously, the unit cost in 2020 has, as we have I've tried to explain, been impacted by the fact that we are trying to serve our customers, right? So we haven't really looked at optimizing the cost. That's not the priority right now.
The priority is to get the goods for our customers and get the goods going and helping them out. So we have had some lower efficiency on the bunker consumption because everything we have sales, And we try just to make both ends meet. When ultimately, the situation normalizes, we will Absolutely, we turn to a good situation of having our cost under control because that's, I would say, there is potential here to continue to reduce our cost. But on the other hand, you have obviously the charter rates, which have increased. So therefore, the new agreements will be at a higher rate as well.
So I don't think the cost per unit will be a major driver looking at 2021 and in the years ahead. There's Potential on our own further cost optimization, bunker consumption, but it will be a little bit offset as well by increased charter rates as well, but not a major dramatic movement there.
Okay. That's very good. Then secondly, Patrick, you mentioned I think it was you that you had were happy with the contract negotiations on some of the longer term Contracts that you have in the Ocean division. Could you sort of talk a little bit to how much have been renewed so far? And also what you expect for the remaining part of outstanding contracts that are still to be negotiated And what you have sort of assumed there in your guidance?
Thank you.
Yes. Kasper, maybe I should take that. I mean, We are quite pleased with the progress in our contract negotiations. We have achieved solid improvements in the freight rates. We are 40% in, So 40% of the volume that we want to sign up has been signed up, And it runs until May.
We expect, as things look right now, that we will continue to be happy, so to speak, and continue to achieved significant increases. I know you would love for me to give a number, but I'm not going to do that because I don't think that would be helpful in terms of the negotiations with our customers.
That is fully understandable. But as I hear you, you basically assume sort of similar Level of increases in the remaining 60%,
is that fair?
Yes. So we continue to believe that I I mean it's not like the contract market is weakening, I guess, is what right now is the signal I want to send.
Okay. That's great. Then my last question is, we talk about this normalization of the market and how once bottlenecks are cleared Then rates come down. But what is actually sort of the level that rates should come down to? We saw in the beginning of 2020 that the industry showed So you showed sort of an unforeseen discipline that hadn't been seen before in terms of handling capacity.
I mean, do you think that we will sort of go back to the rate levels we saw in 2019? Or will it be a sort of healthier industry that is the new normal?
Look, I think it's obviously an open question. We have commented on, let's say, the discipline of the Stree previously, but it always remains an open question. What you have to see is, with our guidance, which might appear a bit Low on the €8,500,000,000 We actually, as was calculated before, forecast to get there quite A coming down of rates, right? And that is our worst case scenario. So what we implicitly guiding here is that in 2021, whatever happens, we're going to be more profitable than 2020, Right, and 2019 and 2018.
So from that point of view, it is not a bad level to be in, right? And so while I understand the focus on the short term rates and this is really what drive our operations, we are trying every day to fulfill our Commitment to the customers, we have to have a longer view here and see that we have progressively improved the profitability of the company. And we talk about profitability between 8 point For 10.5%, which is a good level, and it's underpinned by Terminals and Logistics growing and being more profitable every
year. And if I can just very quickly add to that. I mean, even at the low end of our guidance, I mean, the return on invested capital is well above 9% the 9.6% we achieved this year underlying based on 8.3 So you can do the math.
Thanks. Okey dokey. Thanks a lot guys.
Next question is from Lars Heindorff from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. The first question is regarding the growth in the Ocean Pass in 2021. You expect to grow in line with market of 3% to 5%, and you've been Earlier stating that you expect to keep the at least the nominal capacity around about the 4,000,000 mark. So my question goes, if you can actually get to those 3.5% because there is a bit of discrepancy probably between what is actually the nominal capacity What is deployed? So in terms of deployed capacity, can you give us or share any views on how you expect that to develop?
Will that be up by the 3% 5% as well as the volumes?
Well, right now, we have everything that we can deploy, so to speak. Of course, there will always be ships that, for some reason or other, is not available to us for drydocking and stuff like that. But for now, we're going all in, and we are also charring more capacity right now to really try to deal with some of the bottlenecks. But of course, we try and work hard every year with our network design team to design the network in a way where we get more, if you will, loadable slots out of the capacity that we have. And we certainly continue to have opportunities to do that.
So that's the constant challenge For us, every year, get a little more usable capacity or loadable capacity out of the 4,000,000 TEU of Capacity we have in the fleet so that we can grow our volumes without necessarily adding to our balance sheet.
Okay. Then the second is about the rates. And I know you're not going to give me numbers, so I'm not going to try that. But I'm interesting to hear Because we get, I mean, almost on a daily basis, anecdotal stories about customers trying to get longer term contracts Rather than being in the spot market, which is extremely difficult these days given the congestion and all the surcharges that they are added on at the moment. So I mean, are you can you how much can you swing your volumes or the split in volumes between spot and contracts?
I mean, you've been previously Stating around about fifty-fifty percent and then maybe plusminus 5% in either direction. But it sounds like these days that At least the customers are pushing for more longer term contracts. So how much can that swing, the split between those 2? It
is clearly a trend. I think there are 2 elements in your question here. On the clearly, we see a demand For more long term commitments, more contracts. But it is not as easy as it looks like because you obviously have Not the same demand on headhauling and backhauling, and you cannot, therefore, just go for 100% contracts. That doesn't work, right?
So you always have Some spot business there. Achieving, we have during the year, increased the percentage of Contracts in our volumes. But it is always, as you were saying before, 1% or 2%. This is not a major shift, and don't expect a major shift For that matter. I think what we have seen, to answer the wider question of is really that Customers have realized this year, due to the disruption, that supply chain is important, and they want to have a more holistic view on it, which is A very good environment for us in our strategy of being the integrator of Logistics Services.
We see a good traction of customers Not only asking for longer contract rates for the sea travel, but also expanding that to having more safety, more resilience, More security on the whole logistics chain for them. And therefore, we have a nice traction here on the logistics and services part as a consequence of what we see on the Ocean. And that is a very nice development, which also validates our strategy. So that's the, I would say, the wider consequence of your question.
Okay. All right. Very clear. And then lastly, on mask spots. I mean, you have had a fantastic environment to push And I say push spots out of the door, so to speak, to the customers and then some of the forwarders, even though maybe some of them have not been sort of super Happy about using a maskpot compared to what they've normally been using and negotiating with you.
Is there a risk that when the market and these disruption and congestion That will disappear, that you will see a maybe at least sort of a temporary setback in the shares volumes that you had on mask spot compared to And what you had previously?
I would say that In our industry, like any other industries, I think I can think of, anything digital has accelerated. And Spot other than it's a two way commitment and all the features that is in the actual product, it's a product that you go online, merz.com, and you self serve and you buy it and that's it. And therefore, I really think that, that kind of Digital Products is here to stay and will expand, and you should expect us to develop different versions of spot, so to speak, to address different market segments or different customer needs in the coming years. So I would expect that we over the coming years, then all of our, if you will, Spot business, our short term business, will be conducted on 1 a digital product of different kinds. The Maersk spot product, the one we have today, of course, has benefited tremendously from being a space commitment product.
I mean, it was a huge problem for customers that they actually had to pay if they didn't show up to begin with. But obviously, when you have space pressure, then the commitment feature on our part actually helps sell the product quite nicely. So that is that's the development. But as far as I'm concerned, you should expect Future will be more digital products, not less.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
The next question is from Sam Blan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks for taking the question. I've got 2, please. I'd just be interested in the guidance, the 8.5% to 10.5%. Could you Talk about kind of to get to the top end of that, the 10.5%, roughly kind of what you need to see on Well, I guess contracts are a little bit more certain, but kind of how much normalization that to get to that 10.5 percent you would be able to withstand? And the second question is, I think the company's midterm ROIC guidance, I think, is still at 7.5%.
You've just done 9,600,000 and I guess that number is going to go up in 2021. Should we interpret that as meaning that This level of earnings is, in some sense, kind of above the midpoint of the cycle? Or actually, could that 7.5% target number be Maybe need to be moved up if we're in a sort of new normal of higher profitability.
Sam. Well, maybe I should I'll start and then I'll let Patrick do the CFO stuff afterwards. So maybe I'll say something I'm getting in trouble with. But 10.5% basically means for us that we need to do 4x what we did in the Q4. I mean that's the reality of it.
And as we are guiding, we're going to start out better. And then the real question is how does things develop over the year. Right now, we have good momentum, good traction On everything, the short term rates have stabilized at a very, very high level, And volumes are good, and also contract negotiations are going well. But look at last year and what happened how the volatility we saw in the freight rates on the upside. And I think as we give guidance, we have to think about that there could also be a downside.
And now I'll let Patrick comment as well.
Thanks, Soren. Sorry about the CFO stuff. And so we'll When we look at the guidance, as Soren said, right, so the uncertainty is just there this year. So we have to give a wider range than normal. But looking at the upper side of the range, I think it's just a matter when do you expect The normalization, Luca.
And do you expect it at the end of Q1, in the middle of Q2? At the end of Q2? So do you go for 2 good quarters. You go for 2.5 good quarters or 1.5. And that gives you, with the numbers that we have in Q4, just the range that That is the way it is.
It is still a very good performance, and that will just develop itself. When we look at the ROIC, it is we are reaching good ROIC territory here. We are really creating value, and that's excellent. I think we'll come back to that in our Capital Markets Day to give you how we think in terms of Guidance for next few years, what range do we want to achieve as the company evolves? The company evolves from Shipping cycle dependent, Roig, as you mentioned in your question, To ever more stable because we actually earn more money on Ocean, and we believe it's also there to stay.
We have a more sustainable business model and with Better offerings, digital offerings and so on. But as we obviously grow in logistics and so on, we the ROIC is different, and therefore, The mix of the group also improves. But we'll come to that heavily on our Capital Markets Day.
And just maybe one last comment from my side. I think the guidance, Of course, this year also includes that we expect that we will do better in logistics, and we'll do better in In Terminals and particularly in Terminals, we'll, of course, benefit from the volumes coming back. There, we have a business with a very high fixed cost ratio. And therefore, they would benefit a lot from the volumes. Thank you.
And if If I could ask a very quick follow-up. When we're talking about a normalization from the start of Q2, the middle of Q2, end of Q2, whatever it is, Does that mean that from that point onwards, spot freight rates get back to a kind of 2019 type level? Or it's some amount of decline from where they are now but could still be quite an elevated point.
Yes. I think at the moment, I mean, On the spot rates, I think none of us has a real view, right? I think and but it's important to see that it's not fundamental either for the profitability The overall of the company will perform decently. And now we are debating how high is the high end of our guidance. I think If it comes, I will be happy to see it.
But I think at the current view that we have, we see those 2 scenarios. And probably, The more likelihood is, it's obviously not on the extremes.
All right. Thanks very much.
Thanks very much.
Next question is from Neil Glynn from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
If I could ask two questions left For me, please. The first one on the terminal side. Interested in your experience of the ever present congestion at the moment And your view on what is the answer and the solution from an APMT perspective,
do you
need to wait for a demand to Slow down or how does the congestion clear for APMT terminals? And how long does that take, if that's Even possible to answer. Then the second question on the logistics side of the business. Soren, you mentioned €8,000,000,000 of annual revenue run rate. So I guess headed towards double digits, €10,000,000,000 plus eventually.
I'm interested in how do you think about critical mass in terms of scale and market power to ensure that the terms And the economics are optimized in terms of terms agreeable with customers and suppliers across the markets. Are there any Obvious areas where scale is suboptimal that you need to focus on over the next while. Thank you.
Yes. Hi, Neil. So on congestion and APMT, the biggest problem we have right now is in Los Angeles, where the ships are waiting basically for 3 weeks to get served. And the problem is less on our side as it is on labor side. There's simply not enough labor to go around, much of it because of the coronavirus keeping the labor pools smaller.
So it's not It's less, if you will, our end of things with the amount of equipment we have and so on, and it's more about labor, and it is like that in most of the areas where we have congestion. On the Logistics business. Look, I think we have a tremendous opportunity in growing our logistics business. And That's why it features so heavily in our strategy. I mean that's where we want to create a growth engine.
I think we can say in very round numbers that our customers, our ocean customers, they spend as much on landside logistics as they spend on ocean freight in a normal year. And we have an Ocean business, which is a $30,000,000,000 business. And we have a Logistics business, which is moving up towards $8,000,000,000 So for me, the opportunity is significant. In providing more services to our existing In customers in Ocean, I think the Q4 and for that matter also the Q3 before that very clearly demonstrated that our customers actually like to do more business with us. And in some ways, the pandemic has actually accelerated that development.
So Significant opportunity for us in the coming years in terms of growing our Logistics business. We're going to have to, of course, demonstrate organic growth as we did in Q4 with 22% organic growth. That's really how we really proved to ourselves that we our propaganda is right and that our customers really are keen to do more business with us. We are going to disclose on this new transformation metric that What is this? How much are we selling to our top 200 Ocean customers to give you kind of a signal?
And we're going to go after We're also going to have to, of course, do some more acquisitions because there are some products where we simply don't have all the capabilities we would like to have either overall or in certain geographies. So that's what you can expect to see more of. When you get to the Capital Markets Day, we'll lay out our plans.
Great. Can I just follow-up on your answer to the congestion piece? I guess it makes me wonder whether maybe it's very, very simplistic, but whether there is The plausible likelihood that this congestion continues until critical mass In terms of labor, our ports are actually vaccinated and immunized, particularly in developing markets, which are behind Developed markets in their time lines, is that a plausible prospect? Or do you think it's that sounds far too A lot postdated in terms of congestion clearing.
Well, I think the real issue other than, of course, lack of labor, I mean, we saw surges in the Q4 in the U. S. Imports of about 25% or so. So that is, of course, also a factor. And so if the demand dies down a little bit, then that will also be a help.
Great. Thank you.
And next question is from David Kerstens from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is
open. Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Three questions, please. First of all, what's driving the increasing disconnect Between your freight rate development and the CCFI development in Q4 versus earlier quarters?
And then secondly, when comparing the Q1 of this year with the Q4 of last year, besides that the CCFI is up another 50%, What is the main difference? Is that mainly bunker costs that are offsetting that effect to some extent? And then finally, on capital allocation, Is your main objective still to remain investment grade? Or do you now target to be better than investment grade, given the positive outlook From the rating agencies and given the fact that you keep CapEx guidance and the share buyback program stable? And maybe related to this, With the Ocean segment now improving profitability dramatically, is it still realistic to target the land based container fixed to increase to 50% of revenue by 2023.
Thank you very much.
I'll take your third question first on the capital allocation. So clearly, I think our target is to be investment grade, which has a certain Level of amplitude, right? So when we say investment gain, it doesn't mean BBB-, but it can go up to BBB plus So there is a headroom there For us to operate and to move. And we feel very comfortable that we are free to move within that range, and that allows quite a nice Flexibility, both of returning cash to shareholders and also to invest in growth. I would say just a small detail On your question, we don't guide for stable CapEx.
We have actually just talked before that we are probably more than doubling CapEx for 2021, But we stay within the guidance that we have said. And that guidance of the SEK 4,500,000,000 to SEK 5,500,000,000 is Designed that indeed we are well in investment grade, right? So from the capital allocation point of view, That's where we want to be, and we feel confident that we are there.
Maybe I can add on to that. So I think SCFI and CCFI and so on, I mean, those are freight indexes out of And obviously, our mix is very, very different. We have a huge Inter Americas business. We have a a huge Africa business and so on. So the mix is not really That different and when is different.
And of course, we have seen the different rates develop very differently this year. As the pandemic or as the consumer came back, it really came they really first came back in the U. S. And then in Europe. And that has meant that we have seen some dramatic increases in the freight rates in the East West rates, which are well covered by the CFI.
And therefore, the index goes up. But That's not necessarily exactly mirroring our business mix, and it's also very different from what you normally see, where you normally see north south rates being higher. And then the CCFI. The CCFI is an index that is a little bit hard because it includes both spot rates and also a contract element. And then thirdly, our rates, the reported rates, the reports that we report the rates that we report, of course, impacted by the bunker adjustment adjustments we do throughout the year on our contract portfolio.
So there are many, many different factors at play here, and I'm not really able to explain Exactly what the difference is between our rates and the SCFI or CCFI index at any given moment. And then the last question, sorry. And you talked about 50% of revenue from logistics. That's actually not something we have ever as a target. But we have had as a target or talked about as a target that we would like to create a business where we have around 50% of our earnings from our Ocean business and another 50% from our Logistics and Terminals business at the EBIT level, so to speak.
Understood. Thank you very much.
And our final question from today is from Parash Jain from HSBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you, and thanks, Florian. And Filip, I have 2 of the questions which have been touched upon earlier during the discussion. But again, just putting the debate back to 2021 guidance. And given the fact that first Quarter is tracking better than Q4. We are essentially talking about a mirror image, 2021 reflecting a mirror of 2020.
In that context, can you help us understand like is it fair to say that 50% of your business is in had some element of contract in it And the remaining 50% on spot. And help us understand, is majority of your Transpacific contracts will have revised or a newer rate sometime from April May. And does it mean that in your forecast of 8.5% to 10.5%, we have modeled Spot rate in the second half pretty much down 50% versus probably the first half of twenty twenty one? That's my first question. And secondly, can you help us with respect to lease expense or the charter expense?
Given a sharp increase that we have seen, What percentage of your overall charters are within the 1 year time frame? And does it mean that charter
[SPEAKER STEPHEN ROBERT BINNIE:]
So maybe I can just start with the last question. So generally, as a rule of thumb, you can expect us to have around 600,000 TEU that we need to replace on an annual basis, so within 12 months. I don't know if that answers your question, but that's about it. I mean, we have 4,000,000 TEU. A little more than half of that, we own ourselves.
The other half, we charter. So that's the way to look at it. And then on the spot rates, I guess what yes?
Sorry, on the lease, what I was keen to understand is that of that of your 2,000,000 charter, What percentage of charter fleet are generally have a shorter term, like 12 months or less? Because the 600,000 that you are referring to perhaps Will involve some of the charters which are probably for multi years, right?
Yes. But they still have to be renewed. So for us, I mean, we still have to renew them in the existing market, right? So I guess The answer is around 30% of our chartered fleet has to be renewed every year and will therefore be impacted by the spot the charter market or whatever it is, up or down. And then on terms of the modeling the spot rates and so on, I mean that I mean, I guess at least the range that we are providing of 8.5% to 10.5 provide you, as an analyst, to form a view in terms of where you think we are going to be in That range.
And we have tried to give as much color we can on the situation. I don't think we can add much more to it, to be honest.
Fair enough. Thank you so much.
Okay.
That was our final question for today. So back to you, speakers.
Thank you. Well, let me then leave you with the As few remarks. We are very happy. We continue to improve profitability, free cash flow, return on Invested capital in 2020, of course, driven by favorable market conditions late in the year. But more importantly, Frankly, progress in the 1st three quarters of the year despite all of the headwinds.
Profitability in Ocean in Q4 And what's really what it is, but in my mind, it's not the big story of the year. We have continued strong momentum, revenue growth in logistics, as I've highlighted, and we also had very resilient performance in Terminals and Towage that we are pleased with. For the full year 2021, we expect to again improve earnings. We expect to see some kind of normalization of market conditions from the Q2. And we will continue to accelerate the implementation of Our strategy and certainly also, and we'll get back to that, accelerate our commitments to sustainability.
And with that, I only can say that we look very much forward to seeing you all at our Capital Markets Day that we will host on the 11th May. Thank you for listening.