Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the TCM Group Interim Q3 2023 Report Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Torben Paulin. Please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation for the Q3 results for TCM Group. We are sorry for the delay due to technical challenges, but now both presenters, our CFO, Thomas Hjannung, and myself, CEO Torben Paulin, are here, and we will comment on the business and the financial results, after which we will hand over to the operator for the Q&A session. Let us start the presentation and turn to page two for the business update. As previously stated, sales in Q3 fell short of our expectations with an organic decline of 23.5%. B2C sales remained weak in the quarter, confirming that consumers remain cautious, even that we see an improvement in B2C order intake towards the end of the quarter.
The improvement in underlying gross margin on both last year's Q3 and on Q2 this year was driven by the acquisition of AUBO, which, due to a different business model, has a different margin structure. In light of the continued soft consumer demand, we have in November made further adjustments to the cost base, reducing the white-collar workforce with 20 FTEs. We continue to monitor the development in the market closely, and production capacity and the cost base is being adjusted as needed. Following the AUBO acquisition, we have 112 branded stores in Denmark and Norway, and in addition, we have 55 dedicated AUBO shop-in-shops in Norway through the cooperation with Optimera. Please turn to page three. Some financial headlines for the quarter.
Reported revenue was DKK 258 million, corresponding to a revenue decrease year-on-year of 3% in our core business on an absolute basis. Adjusted EBIT was DKK 3 million, compared to DKK 21 million Q3 last year. Adjusted EBIT margin was 1%, compared to 7.8% in Q3 last year. Thomas will elaborate on the underlying drivers of this development. Net working capital ratio was 3.1%, compared to -0.8% last year. Cash conversion was 88.1%. I will now hand over to Thomas to go through the financial highlights.
Thank you, Torben. Please turn to page four. The reported revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with an organic decline of 23.5% in the quarter. Revenue in AUBO Production amounted to DKK 55 million in Q3. Our revenue in other countries in Q3 was up by 114%, driven by the acquisition of AUBO, which has a very strong presence in the Norwegian market. The B2B share of revenue remained high in the quarter and was on par with Q3 last year in relative terms. Please turn to page five. The gross margin in the third quarter was negatively impacted by the correction of transit fees related to Q1 and Q2 this year.
The correction amounted to DKK 6.6 million, and when adjusting for this, the underlying gross margin was 20.3% in the quarter, up from 18.7% in Q3 last year and up from 20% in Q2. The improvement in the underlying gross margin was driven by the AUBO acquisition, where it should be noted that AUBO, due to its distribution and operating model, has a different margin structure compared to the other TCM brands. Costs for raw materials and components only decreased slightly in the quarter, and we do experience some kind of price stickiness in this area. Our operating costs were negatively impacted by provisions for potential losses on trade receivables of DKK 5.4 million in the quarter.
With the continued weak trading environment in mind, we have decided to increase our provisions for potential losses related to store closings. All in all, Adjusted EBITDA ended at DKK 3 million, compared to DKK 21 million last year. Please flip to page six. Net Working Capital end of Q3 was DKK 34 million, compared to -DKK 9 million last year. The Net Working Capital equates to 3.1% of revenue, compared to -0.8% last year. The acquisition of AUBO Production added inventories of DKK 34 million. Hence, the increase in inventories in total of DKK 16 million in the quarter was fully driven by the acquisition. During the quarter, inventories at all sites were reduced as a result of the decision to decrease stock of components and raw materials after the supply situation in the market has stabilized.
Trade receivables and other receivables increased by DKK 64 million, where the acquisition of AUBO Production added receivables of DKK 65 million alone. Operating liabilities increased by DKK 38.6 million, where the acquisition of AUBO added operating liabilities of DKK 0.2 million. Net debt was DKK 417 million, end of Q3, compared to DKK 335 million at the end of Q3 last year. Our net interest-bearing debt increased by DKK 158 million in the quarter, due to the acquisition of AUBO Production. The leverage ratio increased from 2.52 last year to 5.21 this year. However, the group remains compliant with all the covenants agreed in the financing agreements. Please turn to page seven. The free cash flow in Q3 was DKK 17 million, compared to -DKK 6 million in Q3 last year.
The cash flow was primarily impacted by lower earnings, which were DKK 14 million lower than last year, but this was then positively offset by the development in the net working capital, that had a positive contribution of DKK 17 million, compared to DKK -21 million last year. The CapEx ratio year to date was 1.6%, compared to 1.4% last year, with investments into digitalization and factory modernization. Our cash conversion measured over twelve months was 88%. I will now hand over to Torben for the financial outlook for 2023.
Thank you, Thomas. Please turn to page eight. We reiterate our full year guidance according to company announcement number 181. A full year revenue guidance in the range of DKK 1,040 million-DKK 1,090 million, and an adjusted EBIT in the range of DKK 40 million-DKK 50 million, including AUBO Production from July 3, 2023. This concludes our presentation, and we will now hand over to the operator for the Q&A session.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. That's star one and one if you wish to ask a question. We will now take the first question. One moment, please. From the line of Poul Jessen from Danske Bank, please go ahead.
Yes, good morning to both of you. Question number one is about the market in the fourth quarter. You say that it's stabilized on the B2C from Q3 into Q4. I was just wondering how much you expect that to be from the increase we see in real estate trading activity right now, and how it would have been without? I don't know if you can comment or have any views on that. And then, it's looking into next year, where we should assume that trading activity comes down again due to changes in the tax system in Denmark. Do you have any comments?
Yeah, it, we know that, that all house transaction, house and apartment transaction will, will have an impact on, on the demand for kitchens. So, the positive, order intake we are seeing in B2C, in this quarter, is probably to a certain extent, due to also the increasing number of houses and apartments sold. And as you point out, the tax system is changing for the new year, and thereby, we also expect that number of houses sold will decrease again. So that's the way it works. We don't have any specific numbers on how much it is impacting us today, and thereby also not what we are then missing next year.
But we are aware of the situation, and it is a part of our decisions also to cut costs now.
Okay. And, how is the competition in the market, let's say, in Q3 and into Q4 so far? Do you see increasing, discounting activity between the companies?
Yeah, definitely. There is in most competitor brands that there are discounting activities going on in various ways, and some of them is also doing that in a normal market situation. But the discounts that are advertised now are higher than normal. So, it sends a signal that everybody is fighting for winning as many orders as possible right now.
That's both in B2C and B2B?
It is primarily seen in the B2B, B2C market. There is definitely also the same harder competition in the B2B market, but there you don't see it as public as you do in the B2C campaigns.
Okay. And if you then take, I was thinking when you did the price increases in the previous 18 months, aggregated were quite extensive, more than 20%. If you look at the market right now, has they all been more or less rolled back, when you do the actual trading prices today versus prior to the increases?
No, the on the input cost, on the raw material, some prices has decreased, not to the extent that they were increased, but to a certain extent, and on sales prices, nothing has changed. But of course, with the harder competition, the stores are trying to win their fair share of the orders, and we, to a certain extent, support them in doing this job. So we do lose a little bit on the margin and increased prices.
Okay. I have two questions more. One is then on the gross margin. You said that the underlying gross margin were unchanged, or were up year-over-year, and it was impacted by the different AUBO business model. I assume that AUBO is diluting the gross margin, as they should be increasing the gross margin, I assume.
Yes, correct. AUBO is improving the overall group gross margin, as I said, because as I state, because they do have a different operating or business model, primarily related to Norway, right? Where some of the costs are lying in other lines in SG&A costs, right, instead of in the as margin reductions.
The final question is on the cost cutting, the 20 FTEs that you take out, can you give a split on how much is coming from synergies, from the merging the two companies, and how much is additional cost cutting to drive down the cost level, more or less in an organic way?
Yeah, I can't say exactly what the share is. We have done something in synergy-wise in marketing and also specific in the purchase department. But it's a 25% or something like that, maybe.
Maximum.
Maximum.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question. From the line of Ulrik Bak from SEB, please go ahead.
Yes, hi, Torben and Thomas. First question on the organic growth, which was down almost 24% and Danish sales down 15%. I know you don't usually disclose the split between price, volume, and mix, but I wanted to ask the question anyhow. So how much were volumes down, if you can give a hint?
Thank you. We're coming to the stage where the prices are comparable to last year. Maybe not 100%, but to the biggest extent. So thereby the change is more volume than price.
Okay, that makes sense. Then on the sales activity since the pre-announcement, you, you talk about the B2C leveling out, perhaps even increasing slightly. But, so, so what's the status of the B2B and, you know, given the organic growth of -23.5% versus Danish only being down 15%, so Norway must be doing quite, quite badly at the moment. So, so just some color here, please.
Yeah. You're absolutely right that the decrease in percentage is higher in the Norwegian market than in Denmark. In real numbers, when you look at the old TCM business, Norway is not having a big share, a large share of our revenue. So thereby in B2B, the impact is less. On the B2B side, in Denmark, in the beginning of this year, we still had a high pipeline on house builders. But after the summer holiday, this pipeline is drying out. So right now there's very little, and also very little in the coming months. So when we look into next year, it's limited what is coming from that side.
So far, we still have larger projects, orders coming in. It's not new projects, but it's projects that are now coming close to be finalized, and thereby they also need the kitchens. So we still see a stable activity on that part of it. So it's mostly the house builders that we are missing out right now.
Okay, and any particular cause of the weaker performance in Norway versus Denmark?
I think they have a little bit the same macroeconomic like we have in Denmark, and then they have on the top of that, they have the currency issue. So, all imported goods is expensive, right?
Makes sense. Then the question about the implied Q4 revenue guidance of around DKK 245-DKK 295, compared to the Q3 revenue at DKK 258. So based on the midpoint, sales should be higher in Q4 versus Q3. Is that a seasonal thing, or is that down to this B2C improvement, perhaps due to the
It's more a seasonal thing, like, but of course, it a lot depends on the timing of B2B deliveries, right? And that is also why we maintain the broader range, right? Because B2B deliveries can be delayed, or rescheduled with relatively short notice.
We have that every week and every month, but it doesn't have a lot of impact. But when it's in the end of a quarter, and now not only end of a quarter, but also end of a year, then the impact is of course higher. And as we are having a higher share of B2B right now, then the risk of orders being postponed is also higher than normal. And as Thomas said, thereby, also this wider range than normal at this time of the year.
Okay. And for AUBO, what's the seasonality like here, Q4 versus Q3 and Q1 and Q2?
Yeah. AUBO in total is a little bit the same, as they have a very high B2B share in the Norwegian market. And, and there in Norway, I guess also this delay due to weather conditions is even a stronger, part than in Denmark. So, so it's the same, and then maybe even, even worse.
Okay. So, so I'm looking into 2024, Q1, Q2. Is there any reason to believe that we should see, you know, an uptick? Actually, you alluded to that we could probably see some slowness in the B2C from the tax, new, new tax rules. But, but are there anything to, you know, that gives you hope for the first half of 2024, compared to where we are now?
It's still a mixed picture. Those project orders that are coming in now will, to a certain extent, be for delivery in the first half of 2024. The standard houses, the house builders, we will definitely miss in at least in the first half of next year. And then some of the B2C orders coming in now, they will be for delivery in the beginning of 2024. But how all of this equals out with a small plus or a small minus, that is too early to say.
Okay, understood. Then a question on your provisions. You increased them by DKK 5.4 million in the quarter. How do you have come up with that number? And have you already, during Q3 or so far in Q4, spent some of that provision?
Well, first of all, it's not a number that we sort of come up with. It is based on an individual assessment of our trade receivables, right? And where we simply look at which stores we believe could come into financial trouble, either because we've had an indication from them or because of their trading being weak. There was no store closures in Q3. But we can report that two of the stores that were provided for in Q3 had subsequently closed here in Q4. So our guesstimate was not wrong. But it is indeed based on an individual assessment of how the stores are performing.
Yes, and just with the difficult markets at the moment, so what are the assumptions about, you know, a pickup in the market? So, how long do you assume the current demand environment to, you know, stay as it is when you, you know, evaluate a provision of DKK 5.4 million? Because I guess the longer this current situation goes on for, there will be a larger and larger risk of more store closures. So how do you manage that balance?
Well, well, of course, we do not, in line with our peers and other market participants, we do not see a major improvement in the market coming up in 2024, right? And that is also why we are. And that is what we're using to reflect when we consider the potential losses on trade receivables, right? But we do not see a significant market improvement in the next 12 months.
But on the other hand, too, I guess, all the stores have already also adjusted their cost, both the manning in the stores, some also been able to negotiate a decrease in rent. And as we have said a couple of times also, our biggest concern is on the new open stores that have invested all the money they have, and then they open up to a weak market or, and then thereby they don't have. They didn't have the time to build up a buffer. So that will be the same also in 2024.
We do a store evaluation in all brands to say which stores are strategically important to us, where we will do our utmost to keep them alive and open. Other stores are maybe not that important, and they have to survive a little bit more on their own. So, as we have been doing this for, I think, already more than a year, and we will of course follow that as close also in the coming year.
Okay. That's clear. It's just ... So we shouldn't expect another provision in this magnitude in during Q4?
Well, I think as we also indicated in our Q when we released the preliminary numbers, the DKK 5.4 million that we provided for was higher than we anticipated when we made our Q2 report, right? And the outlook for the rest of the year at that point in time. So I would not expect a provision in that magnitude, but there will most certainly still come provisions in Q3, sorry, Q4.
Okay, understood. Then a cash flow question. I see a cash flow impact from, I guess it's the AUBO acquisition, which is only DKK 120 million in Q2 in Q3. So, when will the rest come? The total EV was 165, and then there's an earn-out component, and the cash value was around 155, DKK 10 million was, were in shares, right? So,
Right.
The delta between DKK 155 million and DKK 120 million, will that come in Q4? Or how should we think about that?
No, no, that's on a, it's on a long-term vendor loan note, which was for a five-year period.
Right.
That was disclosed in the report. That is quite far out in the future.
Okay. Thank you. I have no further questions. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. That's star one and one to ask a question. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Torben Paulin for closing remarks.
Thank you. Thank you for listening in, everybody, and have a nice day and a nice weekend when you get to that point. Thank you, everybody. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.