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Earnings Call: Q2 2019

Aug 15, 2019

Operator

Welcome to TORM's conference call regarding the results for the second quarter and the first half year of 2019. I would now like to hand the conference over to Morten Agdrup, Head of Corporate Finance and Strategy in TORM. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Morten Agdrup
Head of Corporate Finance and Strategy, TORM

Thank you, thank you for dialing in, and welcome to TORM's conference call regarding the results for the second quarter and first half year of 2019. My name is Morten Agdrup, and I'm the head of Corporate Finance and Strategy in TORM. As usual, we will refer to the slides as we speak, and at the end of the presentation, we will open up for questions. Slide 2, please. Before commencing, I would like to draw your attention to our safe harbor statement. Slide 3, please. Slide 3, please. With me today is Executive Director, Jacob Meldgaard, and he will be hosting the call. Slide 4, please.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Thank you, Morten, and good afternoon to all. TORM's second quarter 2019 results reflects our strong commercial performance, despite the softer market conditions related to short-term factors, as well as the benefits we derive from our fully integrated in-house platform and the cost efficiencies that result in our low daily cash break-even levels. We remain excited about the developments that we expect to begin to unfold over the coming months, and I will describe this in much more detail later in the presentation. First, let me summarize our results. In the second quarter of 2019, we realized a positive EBITDA of $40.6 million and a positive profit before tax of $5.2 million, which is about $0.07 per share. The return on invested capital was positive at 3.9%.

In total, for the first half of 2019, we realized a profit before tax of $28.7 million, equivalent to $0.38 per share. This is the strongest half-year result in the past three years. We're really pleased that we are able to generate a profit also in the second quarter of the year, which has been negatively impacted by there was an unusual high and prolonged refinery maintenance period. Our estimated net asset value was $897 million as event of the quarter, and later in the presentation, I'll take you through a detailed breakdown of this particular metric. Illustrating our continued focus on maintaining a solid balance sheet, the net loan to value was 51% at the end of the quarter.

Our available liquidity was $367 million, which excludes the $99 million in proceeds, which we will get from six recently concluded sale-leaseback agreements. The realized TCE rate was $15,405 per day here in the second quarter. While the second quarter rate was softer than what we experienced in the first quarter, due to factors I'll describe shortly, rate was still well above the levels we saw last year. This does bode well for the balance of the year and beyond. In the second quarter of the year, we've taken several steps to modernize our fleet and prepare for the new IMO 2020 regulation.

We purchased 4 2011-built MRs for a total consideration of $83 million. These vessels are expected to be delivered actually, more or less, as we speak here, later in August. We are going to be financing this through a $66 million sale-leaseback transaction. We also sold older vessels, 1 1999-built MR, which was sold and delivered during the second quarter. 2 additional vessels. Stock went subsequent to end of the quarter, which is a 2002-built MR and a 2004-built Handysize vessel. A total consideration of $22 million is what we're getting from this. We will repay an aggregate debt of $13 million in connection with these vessel transactions.

Supporting the already strong capital structure we have, we've entered into an additional two sale-leaseback agreements here in the second quarter. Here, the total proceeds will be $52 million, and we will be repaying $18 million in debt concurrent with those two transactions. In general, our preparation for the IMO 2020 regulation are proceeding as we have planned. We are pursuing a balanced approach, with, at the end, it will result in 34 vessels in our fleet close to half of what we have, being fitted with scrubbers. Of these, 28 of the scrubbers will be delivered from our joint venture, ME Production China. We have to date installed six scrubbers and expect that a total of 28 out of our currently scheduled scrubber installations will be finalized before end of the year.

The remaining 6 will be delivered next year. That consists of 3 new buildings and then 3 retrofit installations, all expected to be taking place during the first quarter of 2020. Slide 5, please. Now let's look at the product tanker market specifically here. In the second quarter, our product tanker fleet realized an average TCE earning, which was at $15,405 per day. In the LR segment, TORM achieved LR2 rates of $17,894 per day, and LR1 rates were at $14,582 per day. In our largest segment, the MRs, we achieved rates of $15,163 per day, and finally, in the Handysize segment, the achieved rates were $12,882 per day.

In general, the product tanker freight rates softened here in the second quarter. As already mentioned, this was primarily due to seasonal refinery maintenance, and this year, it has been not only higher than what we've seen in recent years, but it also were prolonged. It lasted simply longer, and this was coupled with several unplanned outages that further reduced capacity. In Asia, in particular, maintenance was almost 50% higher than during the same quarter last year, and this obviously limited the east to west cargo movements. At the same time, natural flows from west to east declined, in this case, more due to petrochemical refinery maintenance and competition from cheaper LNG available in Asia. Turning to the US, there were a series of unplanned outages also there. It occurred at several gasoline-producing units, which supported transatlantic and transpacific gasoline flows.

The former was interrupted for a period by crude oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline in Russia that disrupted the work at a number of Eastern and Central European refiners. Towards the end of the quarter, I think as we all know, there was a fire and a subsequent closure of one of the largest refineries on the US East Coast, which again, at that time, opened up for the transatlantic gasoline trade. In the east, as already mentioned, the heavy refinery maintenance limited the long-haul diesel flows back to the west. This was worsened by a continued market cannibalization from our peers in the crude tanker market, where new buildings actually transported about 30% of the east to west gas oil volumes during the quarter.

Far, here in the third quarter, the closure of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery continues to support transatlantic gasoline flows, while the east to west diesel flows have remained low due to a reduction in refinery runs and also unplanned outages in general, east of Suez. However, here we do see refinery maintenance starting to retreat significantly, which we expect to have a positive effect on trade flows. An effect that we are starting already to see in the Middle East market after a recent return of a number of the export-oriented refiners, both in the Middle East but also in India. As an overlay of this, we expect preparations to IMO 2020 is that it's gonna give an additional boost to the trade, as bunker suppliers will start building inventories of compliant fuels in the coming months. Slide 6, please.

As already mentioned, spring refinery maintenance and outages this year have been heavier than first anticipated. For the first six months of 2019, the maintenance and unplanned outages have been 20%, approximately higher than in 2018, and also maintenance has been prolonged this year, with offline capacity peaking first in May instead of traditional in the March, April period. The heavy refinery maintenance indicates the refiners are preparing, as one would expect, for the upcoming IMO 2020 regulation. The higher maintenance here in the first six months is expected to be offset by lower outages in the second part of the year, supporting the production and transportation of refined oil products. Slide 7, please.

When we look over medium to longer term, we continue to expect the structural dislocation between product demand and refinery centers to add ton-miles to product tankers, as more refined products will be produced and exported from the Middle East to the rest of the world. Over the coming years, the expansion in the region is expected to be significantly higher than in the previous three years and more comparable to the level we experienced back in 2015. Here, you can point to facilities such as the new Saudi Aramco refinery, Jazan, and KNPC's new refinery, Al-Zour, which will come online. We expect that this will reinforce the role of the Middle East as a key clean product exporter. This will, in turn, contribute positively to the product tanker ton demand over the coming years. Slide eight, please.

Another positive driver on the market obviously remains the IMO 2020 and the corresponding increase in demand for product tankers. We continue to expect that a considered part of the new compliant fuel will be diesel-based or based on blends containing diesel. We currently expect an incremental diesel demand of about 1.1 million barrels per day from the IMO 2020 implementation, implying an increase of around 5% in the product tanker trade in 2020 based on ton-miles. This increase will obviously depend on the refining industry's ability to shift into very low sulfur fuel oil production, also known as VLSFO. Similarly, crude tankers are expected to gain from the IMO 2020 due to increased refinery runs and the need to store excess high sulfur fuel oil....

I'm quite convinced that these demand effects of the IMO 2020 sulfur regulation, combined with our own strategic steps ahead of the implementation date here on the first of January, will prove beneficial for TORM for a number of years to come. Slide 9, please. Let's look more elaborately on the demand effects of IMO 2020. Stricter sulfur rules mean that the shipping industry would need to use additional marine gas oil, which is type of fuel that belongs to the family of diesel. While the demand for marine gas oil, or more generally, diesel, will increase in all world regions, flexibility to increase diesel production is much higher in regions that are already net exporters of diesel today. As an example, considerable volume of new refining capacity comes online in the Middle East and Asia.

Russia is producing more diesel as part of its refinery upgrading program. The complex U.S. Gulf refiners are expected to process more high sulfur fuel oil. That becomes cheaper after 2020. They will use it to produce extra diesel. At the same time, the main importing regions, the ones that produce too little diesel, do not see any new refiners coming online in the next two years. Therefore, their ability to respond to increased demand due to IMO 2020 is limited to the changes they can make in the refinery utilization and product use. This suggests that on top of the trade flows we are seeing today, even more diesel will be flowing from export regions to import regions due to IMO 2020.

The majority of the incremental 5% trade growth that I mentioned will stem from long-haul trade and intra-Asian medium-haul trade. On top of that, we also expect to see more of the sort, short-haul regional trade for redistribution of compliant fuels. Slide 10, please. As already mentioned, our scrubber installation program is well underway. We currently have 6 scrubber-fitted vessels in operation, including 4 new buildings that were delivered with scrubbers installed. With respect to the remaining vessels in our fleet that will be using compliant fuels, we've begun to implement our IMO 2020 plan. This includes a timeline for changing bunkers on board each individual vessel. Bunker planning and replenishment of bunkers will be a gradual process and be timed around individual vessel voyages during the fourth quarter.

We expect that other owners will follow a similar approach, gradually increasing demand for compliant fuels, starting towards the end of the third quarter and accelerated into and during the fourth quarter. Ahead of this increase in demand, we expect global ports to begin stocking up on compliant fuels, continuing to build inventories through the end of the year. This should spark demand for product tankers to transport the compliant fuels to bunker suppliers and may be the catalyst that many market participants and observers are waiting for. We believe it is forthcoming in the marketplace. Slide 11, please. We turn to the supply side factors of the market, and here, the product tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio stands at about 7.4%. This is a historically low level.

We estimate that the product tanker fleet will be growing by 4.3% this year. Lower deliveries over the coming 2 years will result in an average fleet growth of about 3.2% per year over the period 2019-2021. This is down to around half from an average of about 5.8% during the previous 3 years. It's also important, I think, to mention here that the actual fleet growth in 2019 might come in at a somewhat lower level, as a number of vessels will be removed temporarily from the market in relation to the scrubber retrofitting and tank cleaning. This could potentially remove about 0.5%, 0.4%-0.5% of the fleet capacity.

The slowing fleet growth rate is a key point to the fundamental positive development that we expect for the product tanker industry as a whole. Slide 12, please. To conclude my remarks on the product tanker market, TORM has a generally positive outlook, and for the 2019 through 2021 period, product tanker ton demand is estimated to grow at a compound annual rate of around 5%, compared to an estimated net growth in ton supply of around 3%. The product tanker market is impacted by the key economic indicators, such as the underlying oil demand and the general state of the economy. Here, we have clearly seen some weakness recently. The segment-specific factors I've discussed are expected to impact the market positively going forward, and to be a more significant contributor to the market development than the underlying world economy.

In particular, IMO 2020 is an exciting development for the market, and that will certainly bring about both expected and unexpected outcomes. Slide 13, please. In TORM's largest segment, the MR, we've continued to obtain very competitive freight rates, and I'm pleased that our results are at the top of our peer group again this quarter. In fact, if we look back to 2015, we have since then outperformed the peer group in average 17 out of 18 times, and this translate into additional earning power of more than $110 million over the period. If we look at second quarter of 2019 alone, it's an outperformance of $8 million. In general, it's very satisfactory that our operational platform deliver a competitive TCE earning, and that we are well positioned to take advantage of the already mentioned promising supply-demand fundamentals.

Slide 14, please. Before I review the OpEx and admin expense, I'd like to remind you of TORM's operating model. We have a fully integrated commercial and technical platform, including all support functions, such as an internal sales and purchase team, which we believe is a significant competitive advantage for TORM. Importantly, it also provides a transparent cost structure for all our shareholders, and it eliminates related party transactions. Naturally, we are focused on maintaining efficient operations and providing a high quality of service to our customers. Despite this trade-off, we've seen gradual decreases of 15% in our OpEx per day over the last 5 years. OpEx was approximately $6,500 per day for the first six months of 2019, which we can see is competitive in light of our fleet composition.

We also remain disciplined with respect to SG&A, although this can be expected to fluctuate a bit based on the size of our fleet. We believe that our profit before tax break-even rate of $14,500 per day, achieved in the first half of 2019, reflects the efficiency of the One TORM platform, and is highly competitive as compared to other owners in our segment. Slide 15, please. With our spot-based profile, TORM has significant leverage to increases in the underlying product tanker rates. As of end of the second quarter 2019, every $1,000 increase in the average daily TCE rate achieved translate to an increase in EBITDA of around $11.9 million in 2019. The corresponding figure increase to $28.9 million in 2020, and to $30.1 million for 2021.

We have a positive long-term view, as already mentioned, on the market, we believe that we are well positioned to generate significant cash flows. Of the 12th of August, here, we had covered 60% of our third quarter earning days on an average TCE rate of $13,636 per day, 31% of the total earning days for the rest of 2019 were covered at $13,738 per day. Slide 16, please. Of 30th June, 2019, we had available a liquidity of $367 million, excluding the proceeds from the 6 sale-leaseback transactions.

Cash totaled $106.4 million, and we had undrawn credit facilities of $260 million, including the $99 million from the six sale-leaseback transactions, the pro forma available liquidity was at $466 million. Our total CapEx commitments were $304 million, of which we expect to pay around $223 million this year. The remainder will fall due in 2020. The large majority of our commitments relates to our remaining six high specification new buildings. That all includes scrubber installation.

We will also pay about $32.5 million in 2019 and 2020 for retrofit scrubber installations on vessels that are already on the water, and we will be paying $74 million for the 4 already mentioned second-hand vessels that we acquire during this month. With our, again, strong liquidity profile, the CapEx commitments are fully funded and very manageable. Slide 17, please. Finally, here I want to sum up our financial position in terms of key metrics, such as the net asset value, loan to value. Vessel values have increased by approximately 5% during the second quarter, and the value of TORM's vessels were $1.736 billion as of June 30, 2019, including new buildings and the recently purchased second-hand vessels.

The outstanding gross debt amounted to $720 million as of 30th June, and none of our debt facilities mature in 2019 or 2020. Finally, we have outstanding committed CapEx of $271.4 million related to our new building program and the purchase of our four second-hand vessels, in addition to cash of $106.4 million. This in total gives us a net loan to value of 51% at the end of the quarter, which we consider as a relatively conservative level. The net asset value is estimated at $897 million at the end of the quarter. This corresponds to $12.1 per share, or equivalent to DKK 79.8.

Just before we commenced this call, our share was trading at 50 DKK or, $7.40 per share. Obviously, a considerable discount to the net asset value. In short, we have a balance sheet that still provides us with strategic and financial flexibility. Slide 18, please. With that, I'll let the operator open up for questions, please.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad, and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel that request, please press the hash key. That is star and one if you wish to ask a question. Your first question from the telephone lines comes from Jon Chappell of Evercore. Please ask your question.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Thank you. Good afternoon, Jacob.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Good morning, Jon.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

You laid out a, if you read the product tanker market review in your presentation and listened to your commentary, it seems like it was kind of the worst of all worlds, and you were still able to remain profitable during a very difficult period. You highlighted how you expect things to improve in the second half of the year, which arguably should put you in a stronger position. When we think about kind of the risks, let's call them in the near to medium term, where do you think the optimistic view that we all share can go wrong? When do you start to get worried if you haven't seen a significant and consistent uplift in the product tanker market?

Is it, you know, by the end of the third quarter, well into the fourth quarter, or do you even need to see the beginning of 2020 before you start to get concerned that maybe IMO 2020 isn't having a favorable impact on the market?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Okay, thank that's good questions. I guess you kind of gave with your 2 questions, you gave the answer to number 1. Because obviously, one worry would be that the IMO 2020 is just something that we have made up as a combined industry to sort of be positive about the future, and that it would not play out the way that we expected. That would be a significant risk.

If I take that risk, then the other risk would be that, I think the geopolitical environment, and there is quite a lot of things, going around there, would have a negative effect on consumers, on decision makers in general, and that you would have an abrupt, halt to the, albeit the slower growth, but still growth in the world economy, but that you would simply see, a recession, worldwide due to geopolitical factors. I think those would be the two, things that you could see as scenarios, which would be, negative and which would change our outlook. If I take the second one, I'm, I've basically have not much more control than anybody else. Obviously, the geopolitical environment seems to be changing, by tweet.

I don't think we should, we should try to get into that too much. My personal instinct is that there's a little more reluctant to just believe that this is just gonna go away today than what was the case six months ago. I do see commentary now from people who are much closer to this than at where I am, where that maybe the trade dialogue between U.S. and China would potentially continue all the way up to and including election next year.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

You know, so I guess that my instinct is that this is something that is that is still evolving. I don't think that it is negative in a direct fashion for the product tanker market, because trade flows between US and China are very marginal, and they would probably just be taken out by other refiners or trade patterns in this, you know, between the same areas. It is much more the secondary effect of that the global economy and decision makers and consumers would have a break on a hard stop to their current spending. The IMO 2020, we are, I guess, we are more close to whether that is gonna play out the way that we expect or not.

There, I'm still, I would say, even more convinced today than 6 months ago. I think that actually the refinery maintenance that we have seen, if we take it refiner by refiner, during the first and the second quarter here into the third quarter, there has been longer refinery outages. It has been, in general, more refiners taking out capacity at this short point in time in order to prepare for the IMO 2020. Everything else being equal, this will be to the effect that, you know, they're gonna come back on stream, they're gonna be producing, and we are gonna be transporting part of this value, or sort of part of those volumes, and creating value for the product tanker market in general, because you have additional demand coming.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Mm-hmm

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

in the coming, in the coming period. That has been playing out. Clearly, freight rates have softened during that period. We can see that in our numbers. We follow it weekly, you follow it, and it's very clear that that's the way it's played out. It's not even down to where we were, 12 months ago.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Right.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

It's stronger rates. I expect that this is the bottoming of the market. The exact timing, I'm not so nervous about, because the thesis itself is intact. To your second question about when would you start to worry, obviously, at some point you would need to see that it happens. Whether it is accurately called, that it's gonna be in September or October, November, I'm not fuzzy around that. We are, we're patient. I've been in this industry 29 years, so I have time to wait for a couple of months more.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Okay, very thoughtful answer. 2 follow-ups then on that theme, kind of thinking about the way TORM's positioned for the optimistic outlook. The transaction, the secondhand MRs, and the structuring of that through the sale-leasebacks, I mean, I think that makes sense as an efficient way to add leverage to the market without straining the balance sheet. The 2 sale-leasebacks after of existing vessels, I mean, we've kind of become the sale-leaseback structure has seemed to have been more of like a defensive structure of late during the down period of the market. Given your current liquidity situation and your view on the market, kind of the near to medium term, can you just explain why you chose to do the sale-leaseback route on some existing vessels?

Should we expect to see more of those in the future, or was that somewhat of a one-off transaction?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Yeah, thanks for that. I think it's good as you point to, in our presentation, there's 2 bullets. There's 1 with the 4 vessels that we've that we have bought secondhand, and there's 1 for the 2 existing vessels. For the vessels we bought, it was a strategic choice to choose 1 particular lender, who has a big capacity, and where we, by having entered now into 1 deal with 4 vessels, we feel that we strategically have opened up potentially, if we, at some stage, would have the ambition to I would say, extend our presence even further, that we've now established a relationship with somebody who can write big tickets in an environment where lending, in general, is constrained.

That was the strategic thinking around that it sort of fitted well. The strategic thinking around the two other vessels, our existing vessels that are already in our, in our structure and where we have a traditional bank debt associated with it, here, what we saw was that we could actually lower our cost. On one of these transactions, we could lower our cost by transferring it from bank debt into a lease structure. This is with Japanese counterparts, where we simply see that they are more competitive.

This was a cost issue, that we actually don't use it as a defensive tool, the way you describe it, but rather as something where we say, "Okay, you know, if you, if you are there to transact this type of structure on those terms, then we are lowering our cost, and we will do that.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Okay, that makes sense. Final one, dividends. I mean, you've had a pretty clear strategy, and it seems maybe you've taken a step away from it this quarter. I mean, if we look at a pretty difficult market, not as bad as last year, obviously, but the best first half in three years, $0.42 in, you know, earnings across the six-month period, the formula should have resulted in some dividend. I know you explained it a little bit in the presentation, but it seems like with the return of profitability, with the optimistic view, with the spare liquidity, and with the stock trading at a massive discount to your estimated NAV, can you just explain a little bit more the step away from the dividend policy?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Yeah, absolutely. That's a good point, and as we have pointed to, we have a distribution policy, where we semiannually evaluate to be paying out 25%-50% of net profit in the company. We've clearly said that, strategically, that is our goal to do that. However, we also have, in the same paragraph, but obviously, is that, we all, at any given time, look at what is the best interest of, you know, of the company in terms of strategic implementation of sort of our financing of our activities.

Here, we had a discussion with our board, actually yesterday, where we sort of said obviously, we can follow through on the 25% to 50% at this given time. However, as we see it, we still have some opportunities right now, in the coming, let's say, in the coming period, where this cash will be better served, to stay inside of the company, where it could be modernization of the fleet, it could be further scrubber installations, where we simply see still a compelling potential investment for all stakeholders. It's probably, given that the magnitude of dividend here will be, let's say, approximately, let's call it $10 million, obviously that would account to that you could add another handful of vessels with scrubbers potentially.

We're creating that optionality for us without, again, constraining our current strong, financial position. That's the thinking.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Okay.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

That's all optional.

Jon Chappell
Managing Director, Evercore ISI

All right. I appreciate thanks for the thorough answers, Jacob.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We do have one further question, and that's from the line of Espen Landmark, of Fearnley. Please ask your question.

Espen Landmark Fjermestad
Analyst, Fearnley Securities

Hey, good afternoon. I'm looking at page 20 in your slide deck, which is kind of laying out the bunker market in 2017 and 2020. You know, the 1.1 million of diesel next year is probably a consensus view by now. You know, there's a similar amount of this VLSFOs and then additional blends. I guess my first question is, you know, as some of these new products, will they move on clean tankers, you know, potentially before being blended? Is, you know, all of that is going to be mainly a crew trade?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Thanks for that, Dan. As you point to, in the case where the blend consists of gas oil, there you will have it. If the components are also diesel-based, going into the new compliant fuels, then it will be clean product tankers that will be distributing it. It depends on how the blending formula is on the side of the producer. The components will be transported on clean petroleum vessels.

Espen Landmark Fjermestad
Analyst, Fearnley Securities

Okay. I think some shipowners now are, you know, opening a bit up in terms of how their, you know, bunker consumption split will be next year. A bit of curiosity here, you know, for you, between the HFO and the scrub ships, the diesel and the LSFO, I mean, how much are you planning on each of those? Have you taken any actions to secure volumes and price ahead of this already?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

In the tramp business, I would argue that we can, of course, have ambitions around what we expect, but we really don't know the exact trade pattern that our fleet will have. Based on the experience we have of our historical trade pattern and an overlay with dialogue that we have with the bunker suppliers, we expect that something 80%-90% of the compliant fuel, so to say, would be VLSFO. The balance would be that we end up in port or areas where we cannot get sufficient of the VLSFO, and where we would then be using distills or other fuel types. I think it's more suitable for, let's say, container vessels with a very regular trade pattern.

There, I think if I think myself into the management of there, I would be structurally looking at getting supply contracts in place. For tramp companies, I think it is not the most logical thing to do.

Espen Landmark Fjermestad
Analyst, Fearnley Securities

All right. I guess finally, you mentioned the naphtha trade coming a bit under pressure in the second quarter, you know, competition from the LPG side. I guess, the amount of U.S. LPGs, you know, they're not looking to slow anytime soon. I guess with all this light shale oil in the market as well, the amount of naphtha coming out of refineries in the east is probably not going to slow down either, you know, potentially putting a lid on margins similar to what we've seen in the last couple of months. I guess the question is, you know, for you, how important is the, is the naphtha trade?

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

I agree, one, with sort of your general statement that what we've experienced, let's say, over the last, quarter, does seem to be not an outlier, but it could be that that is something that is here to stay, that you have more competition from, LPG into the petrochemical industry, and also that, locally in Asia, for instance, some of the refiners coming on stream in China would be supplying more of the local, need. For us, I think it's less than 10% of the, of the, naphtha trade. If you take ton-mile for larger vessels, then it's less than 10% of the current naphtha that is originally, for instance, in the Western Hemisphere. When you look at it ton-mile, I think it's about 7%.

You can say there is a risk overall for, not for TORM, specifically, but for the larger segment in the product tanker space , that some of this up of west to east naphtha could come under pressure. It's about 7% on a global basis.

Espen Landmark Fjermestad
Analyst, Fearnley Securities

Okay.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Is our estimate.

Espen Landmark Fjermestad
Analyst, Fearnley Securities

Interesting. Thank you very much, Jacob.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

Thanks. Thanks for the questions.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions, sir. Please continue.

Jacob Meldgaard
Executive Director, TORM

This concludes the earnings call of the second quarter and half year results. Thank you for dialing in.

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