Good morning, everyone. We cannot thank you for coming here in person. It also means we will have a whole day, together, where I'm pretty sure you will have all already seen the little bit of clutches around, and you will see the normal, liquids on the tables, that's used for the hands. Let's make sure that for the ones who are in the room today, let's take good care of each other. I know everyone are tested. Some of them even traveled in and probably been tested either in the airport or with those who are returning to London. I know the drill, so you'll be tested when you arrive in London, and that's your exempt for not being in two days' quarantine. There would almost be no excuse for not having this day.
We wanted to see people, for obvious reasons, that I think we are in an exciting time. As you will also expect, today is also an opportunity to have a real view into what's going on across the Vestas piece in more than 80 countries. Therefore, today, we have put an agenda today together, which I think is a normal Capital Markets Day, but it's also a day where we can talk about some of the current challenges that are going on and also some of the long perspectives of the industry, customers, and not least also the supply chain. I think we have put that together in blocks both during the day, so you will have breaks during the day.
Then, of course, for those that has it and all the way through to after four o'clock, a Q&A, and then at least for the ones here, kindly to be in an informal setting to also have a bit of time together afterwards. For obvious reasons, when we go in the lunch, we're all seated because that's part of the measurement of staying safe and with a decent distance to each other. Then I will just say there are no drills planned for this building today. If there is a fire alarm, then somebody from Dansk Erhverv will come here and guide us out, or you will, Brian. But this is the old Børsen location, which we are absolutely stunned and pleased with.
Brian, you will allow us also to host for today. The exits, as you can see, are marked with green in both ends. I will normally say follow the ones that are opening the doors. You know, for those who came in that way, the drill and that way there is a stair, and then we are basically out to the main stair outside the building. Børsen staff will take care of you and therefore follow them in the events. Besides that, before we go into the first topic, really pleased to have Brian Mikkelsen with us. Brian is the CEO of Dansk Erhverv or the Danish Chamber of Commerce.
It's a place where we both from a Danish perspective as we are founded and located and registered here, but also outside into the wider world really appreciate the relationship with Dansk Erhverv, but not least also with you, Brian. Therefore it was natural today to invite you to the stage to give an opening, an outsider perspective, both probably from a country, but also an industry perspective. With that further, Brian, welcome to the stage.
Thank you so much. Thank you, Henrik, and welcome to all of you to this, as Henrik was saying, very historical building. Some of you have probably been here, and most of you have not been here. The building is 400 years old, built by Christian IV, and it was the old stock exchange where we were not trading bonds and so on, but we were trading goods and from around the world. At that time, Denmark had colonies in the Indies, Africa, West Indies, and so on. There were 32 different ports here where you could trade spices, textiles, and so on 400 years ago. Actually for 300 years on, it went on and on and on, and then we acquired the building in 1857.
That was the short historical version of where you are right now. I'm very happy to welcome you to Vestas' Capital Markets. Here at the Danish Chamber of Commerce, we represent actually 18,000 Danish businesses who share exactly the same ambition, that Denmark should be the best country in the world to do business in. Our member companies turn genesis into business every day, and we believe that this is the way to build and make our society better in Denmark, in Europe, and across the globe. We believe that many of the best new and creative ideas come from entrepreneurs and businesses, not from the political system. I'm saying that I have been in politics for 25 years, minister for 13 years. Because ideas, creative ideas come from the private sector, in this way, is also the key to drive our society forward.
It's key to make tomorrow better than today. It can be better health and new medicine, make transport and communication easier, make family lives easier, make their free times and holidays more fun, make our planet and future greener. In short, find solutions for everyday's life as well as the crisis we always meet. Let me address this in a few minutes, because one of the greatest problems of our time is, of course, the climate changes. This is an absolute top priority for us here in the Danish Chamber of Commerce and also for the Danish society and many of our members, Vestas none the least. Green changes and green business are the very core of what we do.
We share the ambition that Denmark should be the best country in the world being green, the best country in the world when it comes to green energy and green electricity. For those of you who are not from our little kingdom, welcome to the country of wind power. That's why I would like to show you just a couple of facts about Denmark as a leader in wind energy. Denmark has 6 GW onshore and offshore wind installed. That's pretty impressive if you know how tiny a country we are. Denmark is 43,000 sq km. Almost half of all electricity came from wind just a year ago. Take a moment just to think about that, ladies and gentlemen. Despite that, there are still critics of this type of energy.
The critics often point out to the risk of reduced security of supply from, for instance, wind. However, Danish consumers enjoy one of the highest levels of security of supply in the world, despite half of our electricity being provided by wind energy. We're actually proud of it. That was just a couple of facts about Denmark as a green frontrunner, and that leads me to ask, has it been good for business? Being the former Minister for Business for many years, the answer is quite simple: Yes, very much indeed. Danish companies have a market share of 40% of the European offshore market. More than 30,000 people work directly in the wind industry in Denmark, and the wind industry creates 60,000 jobs. You have to remember, in Denmark, we are only 5.8 million people.
Summing up, the Danish wind industry makes a huge contribution to Danish GDP and exports, and therefore also to the Danish welfare system. In short, wind energy is very good for all Danes. One of the few political idols I have is John F. Kennedy, and he said, "Ich bin ein Berliner," in 1963, before the Berlin Wall was built and so on. I am tempted to say, I'm a wind man, I'm a Vestas man, because that's very good for Denmark, and it's very good for the whole society as a whole, as I was just showing you with the numbers here. We are the country of wind power because of frontrunners such as the impressive company Vestas, who develop the newest technology and try out new solutions.
That's one of the reasons why I'm so happy to see that Vestas is still moving forward, because a very important company in Denmark, and this is why we do everything we can to make sure we get the best framework conditions for such frontrunners like Vestas. High political ambitions and good framework conditions for wind are an important part of our historical position in Denmark as one of the greenest nations in the world. However, as you know, international competition is rising. Energy markets and power markets change. The climate crisis becomes even more serious. Staying at the front of the global green race is super important for us, for our members, for our planet, and for our future. At the Danish Chamber of Commerce, what do we see as the cornerstone condition for more green business?
Well, firstly, here we see and promote a good old tool which has stood the test of time, and I believe in it as a capitalist. That's the market. Market-driven solutions have shown what they can do again and again through history. If we need more of something, it needs to cost less. If we need less of something, it needs to cost more. This is why we believe that the green transition needs to be driven by the market. This is why we see a high carbon tax for the entire economy as the right tool for a greener future. With a high carbon tax, it will cost more to emit CO2. It will cost less to use green energy. It will be cheaper to build wind power and more expensive to use coal, oil, and gas.
This way, we will see the most effective CO2 reductions, and this will benefit green businesses and make society greener. Secondly, we need good framework conditions on and offshore wind. Today is too difficult to get wind farms approved. And you know it all, not in my backyard position is a major problem, both for onshore and near offshore. Rules protecting birds, nature, and so on, they often collide with the need for new wind farms. We need to find ways where protection of nature and promotion of green power can coexist, and we need to support the upcoming market of Power to X. This market is very tightly connected to wind. Thirdly. We need to get a bigger power grid fast enough, and we have to expand electrification.
A carbon tax would drive both forward, but we still need a strong push to electrify personal transport, heavy transport, industry, and heating, and we need to do it very fast. Fourthly, Denmark needs better facilities for testing and demonstrating new wind technologies onshore and offshore. Otherwise, we simply won't be able to stay in the front in the global competition, and we wanna be number one. Fifthly, Denmark is not an island. We are not isolated. Our economy, our markets, our energy system, all is very closely connected to the rest of Europe and the world. Therefore, we work for the same political goals in the EU and globally, a market-driven green transition and good framework conditions. In Denmark, and also in Europe, we have built an EU Emissions Trading System, and in the long run, by supporting a global carbon tax.
COP26 in Glasgow, and we were also participating there, underlined that temperatures cannot increase more than 1.5 degrees, and we need to stop the use of coal, oil, and gas. This is clear to all, and it needs to happen now. If we in Denmark and Europe chose as a market during green transition, we, and I'm looking at Denmark, can show the rest of the world that climate mitigation and green energy expansion go hand in hand with economic growth. Therefore, we can continue to inspire the rest of the world by being a window to the future. A window which China, India, and other major economies can relate to. Green technology sources, wind energy, quickly have to be expanded and deployed on a massive scale across the world. Vestas solutions are one of the most important technologies to solve the climate change.
Green investments are crucial to tackle climate change and to meet the global climate targets. Much is already happening within green investment. In 2019, Danish pension funds, and I'm actually a board member of two of them, announced that before 2030 they would invest at least $50 billion more in green transition. This year, 2021, pension funds from all the Nordic countries announced green investment of at least $130 billion. On a global scale, we have seen a massive influx of capital in green energy and climate technologies since the coronavirus. Your presence at this Capital Markets today, physically and also online, shows that the appetite for investing in world-leading green companies is still strong.
From my organization, we will do our utmost to create investment-friendly framework conditions for green energy and green companies in Denmark. Thereby make sure that Vestas and other green technology companies have the best conditions to continue to develop, grow, test, innovate, export, and thereby change the world. Thank you for the attention. I can see from the program that you will have a very, very interesting day, and I hope that you will also have a pleasant day at this historical scenery here at the Børsen. Once again, welcome, and I hope you have a good Capital Day for Vestas. Thank you.
Thank you, Brian. I also know that when you announce yourself as a wind man, not a wingman, but a wind man, it's close to what you believe in. It was close what you fought for all the years you were in politics. Therefore, I think anyone who wants to insult him a little bit in the break goes up and call him green because that probably is not what it is. Brian, I think all of the effort over all those decades, they're actually paying back, and that's what today is also about, where we come from. When we then look ahead, where we then look to what we can actually do. I think one thing to pick up on, which of course we will talk much more about, is it has to happen now.
It also has to happen in a controlled way, because otherwise somebody will get hurt big time from the energy transition that potentially can't match the demand and supply for both the electrification, but also the move of the energy transition. Brian, again, thank you so much, and thank you for having us here today. With that, we better get right into it. The first stage of it will very much be to talk about the strategic starting point, where are we right now and what's the outer world, what's the inner world of Vestas, and how do we see that potentially being addressed when we both look within the year but also towards the next decade.
A starting point for us is the vision, and the vision being a global leader in sustainable energy solutions. It has probably never been more in demand or more being asked for. I will just say walking around, and also in Glasgow, everyone wants right now to hear how fast? How can we do this? What is the meaning of a sustainable energy solution? I think we all know it. The world has to do dramatic changes to just stay in the region of 1.5% temperature. We can also testify to that because we can see climate changes because we have had the service business, where there are sensors on our turbines, so we know things are changing. That's the bigger picture.
The inside picture of Vestas is that we also here have a very close tie between what is the vision, the purpose. I know from being in a factory of Vestas that even a factory colleague in Vestas will say, "There is a higher purpose of me being here." If you're in doubt, you should come with us to visit a Lem or a Nakskov or, for that matter, a U.S. factory or some of the other places we're establishing, because that's part of scaling not only today but also in the next decade. We will double-click on some of these today, and you bear with us. Some of those looks into the future. We have only touched part of the beginning of this energy transition, and that's probably in the important takeaway from today.
We're only in the beginning of it, and I will come back to a couple of hard reminders that are currently happening out there to remind us potentially what a bumpy road it can be in that energy transition if we don't get it right as a total world. Therefore, we'll look at what's the market outlook, what's the current market outlook, what's the near term. I know some will look at me and say, "So what's happening in the next quarter?" But also what happens when we look in the frames of either the countries or even the continents where we are operating.
We'll look at Vestas' position, and you will have to allow us a little bit of wiggle room that when we look at the industry, we'll say with a tone of voice, and when we look at Vestas, we will say with a tone of voice, and we wouldn't be on this stage if we wouldn't be a bit positive attracted to the Vestas tone of voice. Therefore, you will have to bear with us over that. We're not arrogant of it, but we also want to show a certain confidence of how we are addressing it. We'll talk about our people, because we cannot do this without an enormous connection with the people that are doing the scalability with us.
We cannot operate in more than 80 countries in the current environment if we don't have an enormous connection with the employee that is right now commissioning something. That also goes for when it looks three or five or 10 years ahead. With the growth that are happening, a lot of countries are right now asking, "How can we transform? How can we transfer some of our employees that has worked in coal, oil, and gas into the renewable industry, into the wind, into the solar, but also into the hydrogen and all of the other parts of the energy transition?" Then, of course, in the end, we will look at what do we have as a foundation. Having started that, look up here. You probably know and you appreciate it, since 1990, we have had a very, very good growth in GDP.
We have also had a growth in CO2 emissions. Out of the 1.7, the 1.5 of the CO2 emissions comes from the pure fact that we are quite a number more in the population in the world. The 1.2 of the 1.7 basically comes from that we also do pollute more in the CO2. I always say, when you look at something and you see there is a thing to address, do you then have also part of the solution? Part of the solution, which I think most of you are familiar with, is when you look at the levelized cost of energy. Listen, guys, we have been there because we have been around for four decades.
Most of you remember the days of 2011 and 2012, which came on the back end of 2010 and 2009, where the world closed down. There was a financial crisis. Financing disappeared. Capital disappeared. At that point in time, you will also appreciate the levelized cost of energy were in 95% of the world's markets depending on that we could get a subsidy as part of either building or for somebody to own it. Otherwise, it wouldn't be the first choice. If we look today, the last decade has changed it. Anders will talk a lot more about the technology and how we also look into the future. If we haven't made those changes to the technology in the last decade, we wouldn't be at the point where that and that graph pointing toward the lower of all.
Today, with Brian's mentioning, it's actually good here that you don't need to incentivize the good things being best also on a levelized cost of energy. Therefore, you can make that if the right thing is to make that choice, then now you also have a financial incentive to do that choice. That doesn't mean that the whole world can then do an energy transition in five years. I just want to show you a few of those because how far have we actually come? Out of the 100% energy consumption and demand today, approximately 20% comes from electricity. 80%, give and take, is coming from the traditional fossil fuel parts. 20% from the electrification. We will now see the enormous pickup on electrifying the transport, the car fleet, and others.
That only pushes the demand side for electricity. You can see in the electricity part, which is the 20%, that we have only scratched the surface of getting to 1%. I know this sounds a little bit, yeah, but Henrik, it's, that's probably back in your town hall. When we sit at a town hall, we say, yeah, there's still 99% to go. When you then start playing with the 99% to go, then you can either say, oh, that's going to be a very, very challenging journey. It will be for the world, it will be a challenging journey. It is also an enormous upside.
What we have just said here is if you look at the graph to the right, up until 2020, you can see that the world has come to at least some extent into where we are contributing with electricity. If we look at the graph there, it has increased slowly. If we look now to the next two or three decades, we're just trying to paint it in what is actually needed in terms of that energy transition if you want to play with the stated policies, if you want to come out of Glasgow and saying, actually this time it wasn't just a COP26 that talked about a few things, but this time people are actually going back and doing it. I want to pick up on the point from Brian.
Brian Mikkelsen always talks about then this country committed this number of EUR billions. The capital is not in shortage, guys. You will see that, you will hear that. Thomas Alsbjerg today will talk about why did we enter into development? Because it's the development of projects that can make any of the gray area happening. If there isn't any permitting, if there isn't any projects being accelerated, none of the things that are in the gray area. As we just said here, there are some announced pledges. If the announced pledge is happening, we're looking into a market that suddenly goes from the current +60 GW plus some offshore to suddenly 175, potentially 200 GW. Today, we won't give you the market in the gray area. I can see you're looking at me, Claus, and smiling.
You won't get our marking of where we believe it is, but we just know that the scalability we have done and played with since 2013 where we were a EUR 6 billion company to 2018 where we were a EUR 10 billion company and today where we are plus minus a EUR 16 billion euro company was actually a very good fairly training session. Because what's coming in there from a scalability point of view is in any marking of the gray is a step up for us. Therefore, it's good to be in practice and have learned both some of the positive experience you will hear today, but you will also hear some of the tough learnings today. That I think we are better and better equipped to talk about.
You decide where you want to believe the world should be in the gray area, and then you come back and tell us how much we need to scale on that one. We can have a real interesting conversation. I hope you'll have that already at lunch break. We also hear we cannot have this, and that was probably another reason we have to be here today also talking about some of the near-term issues, and they are here. If we start from the left side, some of the near-term issues is that countries right now are actually working hard to figuring out where they're going to be when it comes to the whole framework for renewable energy. Some countries run ahead of their own ability to execute on it.
It's great to have a target, and we see that unfortunately in many countries where you put up a target that is huge, and then you forget that the actionable permitting has to happen to fulfill it. We also see the political world sometimes that instead of then picking up with what's actually happening, then you double your target, but that only means that your distance to achieve the target has now become impossible. Right now, couple of examples up there, U.S. Biden's plan hasn't been approved, but we could be days, we could be weeks away. If it's weeks or even a couple of months away, that probably could set what will then be the next 10 years' energy transition in the U.S. If that happens, it opens up something that has never been seen in the last decade.
Of course, right now it feels like there is a stop and go. I can tell you why. There is a tremendous financial difference if you have a 60% or 100% PTC. Our advice to the customers also, have some patience because it might not last more than a couple of months. Germany, though, Germany has changed, but it has also been quiet for a few years. It has been so quiet that Germany actually ran ahead of themselves in their decision on the energy transition in Germany, so they have had to rely on other sources to replace nuclear and coal. If we don't get these measures right, and I know Brian has now left, so I can talk about Denmark.
Denmark talks about the energy transition, but if we want to reach the renewable energy in 2030, we need to build between 6-8 GW. We need to double from where we are today. That's just doing the green renewable energy in Denmark. With the current pace, we might reach it, but it will then be in 2070, 80, or even in 2100, and that's a little late to do that. There is happening a change in the decision-making at that level. Otherwise, it won't happen, and we will disappoint the generation to come. The other thing which is Germany a good example of, if you look down here to the midpoint of the competition and ability to pass through, right now the power prices are going up.
I don't know if you saw it yesterday, but a prediction from yesterday for today was that the average power price in Europe would touch EUR 300 per MWh. These were the power prices 18 months ago, that there were fuel prices, oil that was going for negative, and there were no PPAs to get because it was April, COVID has just broken out. Today, they are 10 times higher. Yes, some of the freight cost, some of the steel cost have gone up. They have gone up incredibly as well. Tommy is not here to tell you today that that's it for the Capital Markets Day. No. It will continue until we find the balance. What that balance means, we'll come back. We have plenty of quarters ahead of us.
The balance here is that those two graphs are deliberately put next to each other because the output for any steel and freight cost that comes out of a turbine today is up to 10 times more valuable for the owner of it. Right now, we can see that brings another calculation. It also brings another review of what projects were maybe borderline a year or 18 months ago. It takes time because the variables are there. How are we addressing it? We've shown the blue. We're passing it on, but we also have to say we can only pass that on we know of, and we cannot pass on what we don't know and what we can't hedge in our backlog. Therefore, we are also living part of the negative of those graphs.
You will hear Tommy talking about it, and it's easy for me to say Tommy will talk about it. It's something that we address on a daily basis because it needs addressing, because if we don't mitigate it would have looked worse. In the end, you will also hear today that from an investor's point of view, we won't forget the big picture. The assurance to you today, we won't forget what happens short term, but we won't forget the long term either. Because if we forget the long term, then we miss the mark on the gray area. We also miss to keep that global leadership we have built and we are superior today, and we will keep also for the next decade.
Today, you will hear Kerstin in a second talking about what do we do with people, what do we do with the leadership, but it's in shortage. All the newcomers that are coming into it, we'll talk about some of them later, they lack talent of it. You will hear Anders talking about the technology. We are not finished. We just entered, we reentered the offshore, and therefore, you will see some of that technology we can now do from onshore to offshore. Sustainability, you will hear throughout the day sustainability. Yes, we probably have the world's most sustainable product. It goes carbon neutral after four months. Great. But what do we do with our own CO2 footprint? What do we do in transport? Come back to that. We don't see sustainability as something that we will look at when we are finished with the other things.
2030, we believe for many global companies, sustainability and addressing it is your license to operate. If you don't have that sorted, you won't be allowed to talk about the other short-term or long-term things. We'll talk about service. We'll talk about how Christian brings his more than 10,000 service colleagues into this world, the digital world, the technology, and how we will build on that in a foundation of service. Not least, Tommy and Anders will have an opportunity also to talk us through what do we do in quality. That's the topic which also sits with most of us on a daily basis. Where are we positioned? This is what has happened.
If we look back in 2010, we were having a category that sits with others doing in the OEM somewhere around 35%-40% of the market. We were at that point in time in 10, around 20%. Don't forget the market has also grown. We have throughout this period continued growing organically, putting effort into global customers and new markets, which means we are today at 35. The other thing that has happened is that the consolidation have led to that the four top OEMs in this sits today somewhere around 90%. We can give you an insight. It's not a great market to be mid-sized and only in part of the markets. We know that because we acquired our offshore business back as a full member of the family.
That's difficult if you're out there trying to do globalization and at the same time invest in technology and at the same time addressing your local manufacturing. That's almost impossible to get to work, even in the best Excel sheet. Therefore, the consolidation is happening. Some will probably go together, and as you can see, it's not always an easy one, and others will probably disappear and be picked up. For customers, I think they have experienced both. They clearly prefer people comes together because then they are not left with half-finished projects. I think it's the world that is ahead of us that people, if they cannot do it, they have to, in the industry, leave something behind.
Today is probably the risk bigger than ever because some of the costings are now so large that some projects will have that effect for somebody out there. When we look at us, we're taking firm orders on an LTM basis of a little bit more than 16 GW. We have revenues in excess of EUR 15 billion, and we have an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.7% on an LTM basis. We would like to have more. We would like to have more of the EBIT, and today we will talk more about that. We will also use today in saying this cannot go on as an industry. This cannot go on as an industry that has to solve major part of the energy transition and work with technology development, localization of the product, and then work with negative EBIT. It won't last.
That one we have to come from an industry point of view, but we have to also take our role in it, and we are not intending to go anywhere near any of that. Therefore, our part is then leave some of the things and leave it to somebody else if it's not profitable. You know that, and we stick to that because we believe that works. I think on the platform on technology, for the first time now we have a platform where we can say that we are advanced on the onshore with the modularization. We now have EnVentus that we can start elaborating on the experiences at. I know, Anders, you and your team are working incredibly hard also now to build the next offshore prototype.
We are advanced in it, but also in it in a learning point of view. What do we mean when we talk about modularization? Today, he's here. Today, he will give you some of the insights. He will give you some of the details of how far have we come in that modularization. Importantly here is also the best product also leads to how do we make those products serviceable for the next 30 years? How do we make those products so Christian's colleagues walk into them and saying, "That's actually what it's about"? The chain here is important. Today we design, first of all, to obtain and being able to obtain and localize and scale on the technology. We also do it so we know we can grasp, and we can do service better than anyone else in the industry.
This Vestas turbine should be unique, not only in technology, but also in the ability for Christian to pick it up and service it. Today we passed 124 GW. It's not a long ago since we celebrated the 100 GW , Christian. On the go. It all comes down to partnerships. Up here we've just shown it comes to customers, comes to some of the global customers, comes to some of the local customers. It also comes to up here now suddenly something we didn't talk about five years ago, the entrance of what is considered the oil majors, the Total, the Shell, the BP, and the Equinor of the world.
There is a reason why those four companies are up here, because they are the ones that are walking right into this market and putting up gigawatt after gigawatt of targets when we look towards 2030. For them, it's not a question about doing renewable because somebody has said that in strategy. For them, it's part of if they don't, they might not be investable in 2030 and 2040 and beyond. I listened in to Equinor's conference a couple of weeks ago, and it was remarkable that on a company like that, there was almost as much passion for the renewable transition than there would be on a Capital Markets day of Vestas. That's interesting because we come from 100%, they probably almost comes from 100% towards something else. Exciting just to observe.
We won't forget because the customer here is partnership. It's not transactional friendship. It's partnership because we will rely on each other for decades into new markets and also localization. That also means we'll talk about business enablers. Business enablers are the DSV, the Maersk, the CIP of the world, the Vestas Ventures. You will hear more about it today. It's also Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. These are the ones where we will extend into other parts, both of the supply chain, of the value chain, and they become insiders in many ways to how we would develop going on. We then put up here component suppliers. They are more than suppliers. If you look at a ZF, a CS Wind, a Schaeffler, Winergy, they are having the insight.
They are having the insight also how does it look when we look to the next version of modularization, when we look to the next version of it. Everyone up here, and there could be a few forgotten which we just don't want to show here, but that all ties together. If you're up here, you're a partner, you have access, we will develop together for the future. Nothing can be done without a management team. I think today you will see everyone here from the blue boxes represented on stage because they actually gather what is Vestas' operating standard across the world. At the same time, there is no chance to operate in 80 countries plus without an enormous strength added to the regions. Today we are doing with the arrival of offshore, we are doing a decentralized execution muscle through the regions.
When you look at José Luis that sits in Mediterranean, he sits in Madrid, Spanish, he's been with Vestas for many years. He is there to expand the Mediterranean, which means its southern part of Europe, it's Africa, and it's the Middle East. Full on, and he also has a team that represents the functions that sits there. We look at Latin America, it'll become an independent region from first of January because Latin America is in addition to 2 GW every year. We have to because these guys want to have a different way of looking at it when they look towards 25 and 30. Eduardo, Brazilian guy based out of São Paulo. North America, Laura Beane, American. She's female. She's based out of Portland. She runs North America.
She's a well-known character in the industry, and she is there to address the U.S. market with the support from all of us and also from our other regional presidents. Nils de Baar is Dutch, out of Hamburg, runs North and Central Europe, so he also runs Denmark from a commercial one. Then we have Purvin, he's Indian. He's based in Singapore and in India, and he runs Asia-Pacific and China. These are the guys. They were not here today because they are out there talking with customers and sorting out the rest of it. For the rest of us, we work closely with those because without that team, we cannot run and scale Vestas to the tune of what we have an ambition to. Today is also another changeover, and I know because I drove you home last night.
It's your last Capital Markets Day. You've been looking forward to it. For you to stand up here today and not for us to have Hans Martin here as well would be strange. Therefore, Hans Martin is here today and I know they have coordinated. Whatever Marika says today is not to set Hans Martin up to fail. There's no baton handed out in an improper way here. For us, I hope you really appreciate. You can see also Morten Dyrholm and Nicolaj are here. Today is today where you can have access to anyone you want on that map, and that's really the important thing of it. With that, Kerstin, welcome on stage to talk more about people, please.
First of all, a wonderful good morning from my side. Short introduction, my name is Kerstin Knapp. I'm heading People and Culture for Vestas, and I joined in January 2020. Building on what Henrik said, we have built this regional execution model, and here are the benefits of that, just to give you a short overview. First of all, scalability and commonality. With the alignment we have created, we can create also scalability, but also autonomy, as Henrik said. It's important we strengthen the execution muscles of the region, and that will allow us to do that. The full integration of offshore enables higher customer centricity. As you will hear later from Javier, I'm sure you will talk about customers, we have mainly the same customers when you look at offshore and onshore.
That also creates some efficiencies. We have simplified the interfaces with our global functions. Just to give you an example, in the past, we had someone representing procurement, manufacturing, supply chain on our management teams. Today, if you look into our regional models, you have one regional CEO combining all of that in one position. Then last but not least, it's talent mobility. As you can imagine, if you have similar operating models in every region, that allows for cross-cultural and cross-regional talent exchanges, but also career paths. That's actually a good leeway into my next slide. It's building leadership for the future, which is high on our agenda to substantiate our ambitious growth paths. What have we done so far, and how are we emphasizing the strong need for strong talent? In short, we have amplified our focus on talent and leadership.
Talent and leadership is also one of our seven strategic must-win battles. Here are some quick facts for you. Currently, we are reviewing 3,300 positions, corporate leadership positions on our succession planning. We have started doing that last year in order to have a line of sight of our depth of talent with investors. Secondly, we have currently around 60% of an internal fill rate when we staff open positions. That is not good enough in our view. World-class organizations have around 80%, and that's also what we are aiming at. That also calls for a higher pace in talent development and talent intake. We have around 500 colleagues today on our regional and global development programs around the world.
That has been a huge increase if you look into 2020 and 2021, how we have embarked new talents onto this journey. The last number I will share with you on that part is we have today around 21.3% women in corporate leadership positions. We have an ambition to reach 25% by 2025 and 30% by 2030. That sounds actually quite, yeah, we are quite good on track, and we are. It hasn't been easy because we have kind of had a trend of 19% over the last many years, I would say.
With the 3,000 new colleagues coming in from offshore, we had even a little bit of a down dip, but we have put tremendous effort in the last, I would say, 15-18 months in order to reverse that trend. I feel confident today to say that I'm really sure that we can achieve that target together. Having said that, the need to further strengthen our employer brand becomes pretty obvious. That leads me to my next slide. I wanted to share with you that we have, for that reason, developed and launched the Vestas Employee Value Proposition in early or late 2020. When you ask external applicants today what comes into their mind when they think of Vestas as an employer, the first two things they will tell you is quality and safety.
While we are all very proud that those are the two attributes they refer to Vestas, we also know that that is more related to Vestas as a corporate brand and less so as an employer brand. That, therefore, there is also a need in order to strengthen and be more communicative around what makes us special about being an employer. What we need to establish stronger is what makes us unique in being an employer and working for us, and that's what the EVP does. It tells the story about Vestas in the past and Vestas in the future.
It aims to get Vestas known in every single country we operate in. It targets to attract diverse talent from all over the world to create a truly global, best-in-class, one Vestas team. I have, as the last point for today, prepared a small teaser for you, so you can hear and see the look and feel of our EVP yourself.
We're all driven by questions. Asking the right ones leads to a new vision, sustainable solutions, enhanced quality, market growth, and when it comes to employer branding, the pinnacle of talent and leadership. To shape a more renewable future, Vestas seeks the very best. Why? Because we don't simply want a workforce. We want to build a team of like-minded energy visionaries, people with the expertise, innovation, and commitment to propel us forward. To attract them, we want to pose one of the simplest but most thought-provoking questions of them all. Can you? The Can You campaign pioneers the future of employer branding for Vestas. It throws down the gauntlet and asks the big questions that speak to the heart of our diverse target audience.
Whether their role is to rethink a wind turbine's design or to climb 80 meters to service it, our goal, to ignite the fire burning in people who are driven by a purpose, and in doing so, to help Vestas power the solutions that change the world.
Thank you, Kerstin. I think seeing all of those wonderful colleagues, it is a question, can you, and ignite that fire of doing that transition wherever you are. You can see operating in more than 80 countries, it's more needed than ever. This slide has a little bit more to it because I'm pretty sure if we had that in September 2020, most today have gone with questions around what are we going to do with offshore and what are we actually intending to in offshore because this market is becoming so much more. Today up there you can see now offshore is here. The systems and everything else went together by first of November, and that also means offshore is now part of it. Offshore has changed in the last year.
From a market outlook of 15-20 GW in 2030, no one now talks anymore about anything less than 30 GW a year, and that's the market we are now embarking into, both in terms of technology, localization, and also customers and the organization. We also almost at the same time saw ourselves embarking into development. Our development entry is not about competing with anyone. Our development entry is to actually walk in and use our 80 countries to explore and make that capital be unleashed into good projects, designated, designed, and approved by Vestas with a Vestas turbine, and therefore the best sustainable energy solution on it for the next 30 years. That's what we do in development, and Thomas will tell us much more about it.
Those thing has come up, and probably dropped down from that box up there, which talk about future innovation. The boards, and I know that, and the Executive Management team is as one in this company. Therefore things are happening in that box up there that's called future innovation, and then suddenly it drops down, and then it becomes part of the business and the day-to-day running. Today, we'll talk more about the two that is for some, something that happened a year ago. For us, we are just now completing some of both the integrations, but also scaling of those businesses. I think you will walk away from here being pretty excited about those two boxes, because now they are here to talk about because they are that advanced.
We don't get anywhere today if we don't also talk to this audience about the long-term financial targets. They haven't changed, but we also put a year to it. In 2025, we are 10%+, and that's what we are aiming at. I think most so we don't get the whole of today's Q&A around what basis points comes from what, we won't give you an argument, and we won't give you a breakdown on that waterfall. Here are some of the areas you will hear from people, some of the best people presenting it, which is we will talk about what happens in the volume, talk about what happens in both onshore and offshore volumes when we look towards both 2025 and beyond.
We'll talk about what we plan to do in cost efficiency and how we will work with our customers to create that. We'll talk about the raw materials and transport, you can guess who, Tommy. We'll talk about the technology and pricing, which sits between Javier and Anders in here. Not least, how do we scale the service, and therefore, what are the levers to get us to those 10%? We wouldn't say that if we were not confident of getting there. Today, you listen to the ones that are going to do part of that journey together as that team, and therefore, I hope you will enjoy that part of the day tremendously. We don't get there without the sustainability. I won't comment much about it. You can see it.
You can see it from quarter to quarter. We make a change. It starts with ourselves. We have now converted more than 50% of just the benefit and the company cars of Vestas. That's actually quite an amazing achievement in only what is 24 months in just a few weeks. We have converted now a larger proportion of the service fleet as well. It does matter because that will soon have addressed one of the big parts of our own transport in there. We're addressing our own energy consumption. We won't change that because somebody took a decision first of January. We changed every company car on January, because that's stupid. That's costly, and it is actually not making the energy and the transition right.
Therefore, when we transition something, we do it when the car runs out, and therefore it takes estimated around four to five years . There aren't any diesel cars ordered from a Vestas manager anymore because that's part of Kerstin's employer value proposition, that when you have a company car in Vestas, you don't drive a diesel. Or at least when you order a new one, you don't drive a diesel anymore. That's probably my little thing here. I hope you will enjoy the day because this will be part of our license to operate Vestas when we look towards it. With that, Matthias, I'm sure you will have a few questions, and we can also have some questions in here.
Thank you, Henrik. As you probably saw from the agenda, there will be a Q&A block on the back of each module, as we call them today, so every other presentation. We'll start with a couple of questions here from the audience, and then we will open up for the ones on the line. I will encourage the ones joining virtually to request the floor using the functions in that link. That brings you right through to us here virtually, both voice and picture. Let's start with a couple of questions here from the audience. I can see Claus has a question first.
Yeah. Hi. It's Claus Almer from Nordea. One question regarding the ASP. Henrik, you showed on the slide that your trend is somewhat different than the competitors. Looking at the order intake so far in Q4, it could indicate that you are pricing yourself out of the market as it is today. How do you really see this big gap between your pricing, at least from an ASP point of view, versus your peers? I don't think we are pricing ourselves out of the market. I think if somebody says that prices haven't gone up, then they are potentially pricing themselves out of the market in a very bad way.
Things have happened and changed so rapidly that if ASP is not going up and people are claiming they're not going up, they are looking at something they don't know of in their backlog. Let me try to address it differently. When we have gone back through customers throughout this year and also here in Q4, there are that many variables right now for customers that they have to revisit their own planning. Some of them have to go back and actually consult some of their own legislation to actually get a permitting again.
Some of them are regulated utilities, and if you're a regulated utility, you have to go back if there is that significant changes in your capital, and CapEx spend on the solution. Claus, we are not, and I wouldn't say hi from the two customers I spoke with, but one said, "You're going to the Capital Markets. Tell somebody that you're actually speaking to customers directly." We get a lot of escalations right now, for good reasons. Costs are going up, and they're going up with double-digit percentages. That's how life is. I haven't met anyone that can buy steel.
We have Tommy and I, we are here all day. If anyone knows where we can get steel for old pricing, we are happy to connect. But it's not possible. For those who has and have run out of the old steel pricing, they will soon know that it's a tough day working ahead of them.
Just to be sure, Henrik, the lack of orders being announced at least so far in Q4 is more about timing and things just takes time. It's complicated and all of that, and things will hopefully normalize when we are looking at thirty-first of December.
I think if we took orders now and ASP went down or were stable, as we will say in Q4, Claus, then you should get worried. We are not pricing, we're not leaving customers, but it's a tough discussion right now with customers that there will be some delay. We talk about it in Q1, but we are comfortable with it. I think it's more that these solutions right now, it's not that we are in disconnect. Customers understand it. I would have been super nervous, and we would have been super nervous with it. Javier, you're coming up here soon. We would have been super nervous if the electricity prices hadn't moved. If the energy prices haven't moved and seeing all of the raw materials changes or transport changes, that would have been a very difficult one.
Of course, for somebody sitting and have done 18 months ago a PPA at EUR 30 and not having bought the turbines or the solution to it, that's not great either, Claus. I can tell you that. That's sympathy I have for customers. It's not our job then to make the turbines as cheap as that, but it's then trying to find a solution for our partner as a customer and for the turbines and the solution. That's the challenge right now. There are people out there that are not having an easy time. We don't have an easy time, but there are also people that have signed up to projects that are not having an easy time.
Yeah. Let's have a question from Mark here.
Hi, it's Mark Freshney from Credit Suisse. Two questions, Henrik. Firstly, I mean, you spoke about the German and U.S. market, which historically have been the most important ones for Vestas. They may provide a bump up, but they don't provide the structural growth, right? It's places like Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, which basically came from zero five or six years ago, which have driven the growth, right? Can you talk about about maybe which of the other markets you see driving the growth? Just secondly, regarding, you know, this old chestnut, the cost pressures and logistics, in terms of current trading, when we last saw you five or six weeks ago, how have those pressures on balance devolved? Have they got tougher, easier or remained the same?
First of all, I know we have a whole team here today. Just your point around markets, I know the guy that absolutely will give you the burning story about what other markets we are pursuing because they are there. Javier will come and tell you about what are we doing with customers. As you can see, we have actually managed to live pretty well without German market. When that becomes a 4 GW or 5 GW market again, Mark, you will see the smile coming a little bit more visible on the face. In terms of things, I don't think Tommy will come and say to you it's sorted. It hasn't gotten better. It hasn't gotten worse.
What has definitely gotten worse, Mark, is a testament to the fact that we are in the room today. 5, 6 weeks ago, we didn't have the lockdown and the quarantines, and we didn't have something called Omicron. And that's actually not helping any of what we are talking about right now. It hasn't gotten any easier. But I think we anticipated when we said Q3, we also said we think it will last most of 2022, because we do believe it will last most of 2022. Today, we are probably even more convinced that it will last 2022.
Yeah. Thanks. I think we'll try to have one on the line. We have Deepa from Bernstein.
Hi. Thank you. The question I wanted to ask was, Henrik, you talked about the U.S. market and whether Biden's Build Back Better program will get passed in weeks or days or months. I just wanted to understand what the dynamics are. You talked about, you know, this would open up tremendous opportunities. As things stand right now, what do you think is the probability of the Senate passing that? You know, how do you see that play out, you know, in terms of annual market volumes or cadence of order intake? You know, what are customers waiting for? If you can just maybe elaborate that.
I think probability is high. It has had several iterations now, and it hasn't changed, so it's high. I think it's the scope and the magnitude of the bill is so big that it will probably have another couple of iterations, and that's why I think the likelihood of it goes from December, now it is the 15th. I think there is a likelihood that it will pass the next couple of weeks and drop into January. As of at least last night, the sense was that everyone believes that Biden will be able to talk about it when he addresses his speech in the second half of January.
At that point in time, there is a likelihood it'll be done. We are still leaning towards high and positive side of it. Of course, it will mean an enormous change if you have projects that are suddenly attracted to 100% PTC for the next 10 years. It goes without saying.
Yeah. We just have one short question that can hopefully also get a short answer from the chat. Is there any update on the cybersecurity incident?
I won't give a short answer. I will say the following. We have said something on the twentieth. We have said something at the end of November. We've said something on the sixth of December. It is not funny to have lost something that is yours. As we asked kindly in the last statement, this is a criminal offense. People have taken something that is not theirs. It's primarily related to internal matters of Vestas. We are up and running again. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure we would have had to cancel this day. We are up and running again, and people that are here on the stage will confirm that. This time, we will also ask for one understanding. These guys are not gone away, and for those who follow it, they leak data from time to time.
Therefore, the only thing I will do is to ask for understanding because we are still dealing with it, right? When you start leaking things around employees, customers and others on those kinds of places, we just ask for your understanding not to distribute, not to do anything else on the digital, because actually the equal thing here is that you leave today in a stolen car, and I encourage you not to do that, and therefore neither to treat digital or data from Vestas as anything else that it belongs to Vestas. Outside that, we have nothing else to contribute with, but when it's ransomware, there is typically two things to be said, and that means we are up against somebody that is a criminal offense, and it is dealt, treated that way.
Therefore, I hope that's the last time we need to talk about cybersecurity today. As we are up and running, we don't have a material cost to it, as anyone can expect, because we're up and running again. We are not being held to ransom for running Vestas, but we have been held to ransom on some of the data, and we're not happy with that. I ask for your understanding, because if you start doing anything else, then you are actually not helping us, you are helping somebody else. Those guys, I don't think you have any reason to help. Thank you for cybersecurity, by the way.
You're welcome, Henrik. That will be the final question of this round, and we will start presentations again in 10 minutes.
Are we ready to continue? Okay. Good morning, everyone. My name is Javier, and I have been almost 21 years in Vestas. I'm the Chief Sales Officer, and I'm really happy to be in this amazing place today with all of you. Today I will start to talk about how we see the market in today's scenario, but also how we see that it will evolve towards 2030. Also, I will talk about how in Vestas we create value together with our customers. Of course, I will talk about price, and then how we intend to continue leading the onshore market and expanding our leadership in the onshore market, and then reach our ambitions in the offshore market.
We are growing faster than the market, and here you have some figures that proves that. We are gaining market share. In the last five years, we have passed from 24% market share to 35%, this is excluding China, and without compromising prices. In revenue, we have doubled the revenue of the company in the last five years, and in order intake last year, we achieved a record order intake of 17 GW. Today, our presence is in 146 GW of track record, and we have projects in 85 countries. That's really a competitive advantage because we are not so exposed to fluctuations of certain markets as some of our our competitors are. I can say that we are probably the only true global player in the wind industry. Our wind turbine backlog is EUR 19 billion.
That represents 24 GW of firm and unconditional orders. How do we see the market? You have heard Henrik before that we still will suffer short-term uncertainties, so we are operating with COVID restrictions in many of the markets where we operate. Transport disruptions will continue during the coming months, and Tommy will talk about that later in the presentation. We'll see volatility in raw material prices. On the other side, everyone is committed to a really ambitious target, and we share that view. We need to solve some bottlenecks together in the industry, and there are two main bottlenecks right now. The first one is we need well-developed projects, and in order to have that well-developed project, we need simple and predictable permitting processes.
That Thomas will talk about that a little bit later. Also, we need that the grid is developed at the same speed as the project in order to avoid this tremendous bottleneck that we have in some of the markets. If we look at the long term, our baseline says that we will install 150 GW by 2030. That's the baseline. Out of that one, offshore will represent a significant portion of that, and offshore will move from a market from 4-6 GW that we are seeing today to a market of 25-30 GW by 2030. There are upsides there, and we talk a little bit about that. We talk about the electrification journey that everyone is embarked, and we are talking about the net zero scenario, which is a target that we all should share.
If we all share that target, that will mean that we will need to add additional 100 GW in 2030, meaning that it could be 250 GW of installations by that year. There are 20 markets worldwide that have announced plans of more than 10 GW in this period. As you can see there, we have a strong and mature position in many of them, in most of them, I would say. We can mention markets as U.S., Germany, Australia or Brazil, where we have an historical presence, but also a very healthy market share that goes from 35% to more than 50% in some of the cases.
In the offshore market, the mature markets will continue installing, I would say that is U.K., Germany or Denmark, but there are more and more markets that are putting ambitious plans to be materialized before 2030. We can mention U.S., where we have received very recently preferred supplier agreements for 2.1 GW within the Empire Wind project. We can talk about the development of the ASEAN offshore markets in markets like Taiwan, Korea or Japan. Poland and Europe have put impressive targets for this period. There are other markets where we are not so present, and we have the ambition of being present in the main markets worldwide. One message that I want to do here, we will never do that buying market share.
We will never do that by sacrificing our profitability or quality of our products. What is our ambition? Our ambition is to have a profitable leadership across all the segments. That will mean that we will need to expand our leadership in onshore, and we will reach our ambitious goals in offshore by 2030. How we will do that? There are two main pillars. First pillar is obviously our customers, how to be the partner of choice, how to continue being the partner of choice of our customers. The second one is how do we internally optimize the value that we create for Vestas and for our customers. What does it mean being the partner of choice? We continuously deliver sustainable returns together with our customers. That's based on three pillars. The first one, proven performance.
Our customers are continuously telling us that we deliver the most competitive and the most reliable business case, and we will continue investing time and resources on that. Secondly, being a trusted partner. We are going to move, and we are moving the market from a transactional opportunistic approach to a much more global partnership approach. We are already engaged with many of the main players in multiproject and frame agreements in order to accelerate the way of contracting with our customers and enhance the relationship that we have with them. Third one, we will continue investing in innovation and Anders will talk about that a little bit later, but we will continue being a pioneer both in product and in market. In that way, we will continue leading the market. Pricing, and that's an important topic here.
During the last years, we have continuously sold our products at a higher price than our competitors. Does it mean simply that we are more expensive? Not at all. At the end of the day, our customers pay for the value that they perceive in the product. That means that we are capable, together with them, to extract more value of our product. That has several pillars, but let me mention some of them. First of all, value engineering. By engaging early enough with our customers in the projects and understanding perfectly their business case, it allows us to optimize many more levers than just the price. We adapt the product to the specifics of the project, but also to the specifics of the PPA, which normally has been something out of our play field.
It's if we have a PPA that evolves during the period, we have to create a solution that is adapted to that, to that PPA. Intelligence. We have the broader understanding of what is happening in the market. We understand how the supply and demand evolves, how the commodities, and how the competition is evolving. In that way, we can optimize the pricing and the value. Second one, global pricing strategy. We are not reacting to specific situations in a specific market. We have a global pricing policy that, understanding what is happening in the countries, in the customers, and in the competitors, we apply a different pricing policy in different markets. Agility. This has proven to be a competitive advantage in the last months.
We need to adapt faster to the changing environment, and we need to react very fast at the cost fluctuations up and down, and also to the different, transport disruptions that we are suffering. That's very, very important. Finally, early permitting. By engaging early enough with our customers on our technology roadmap, we will secure that they permit the project with the most efficient turbine. At the end of the day, we are extracting higher price, higher value for them and for us. How are we moving from cost of energy to value of energy? Well, I started my career in the sector 22 years ago, and the market has changed significantly. The market was growing, but nowhere to the levels that we see, both in volume or in stock value today.
The prospects were really good, but it was 100% clear that we have to decrease the cost of energy to be mainstream. We have a good track record of materializing our vision. In 2005, we had a vision in Vestas that it was wind, oil, and gas. Simple. At that time, we were dreaming that wind could compete on equal terms with other source of energies powered by oil or gas. We made it. We made it together. We have won that race. The LCOE race has already been won, and I think that that's very, very important. We need to evolve, and we need to move farther away from the pure LCOE reduction. We are delivering a significantly higher value to the society on top of all our green credentials, of course.
We need to be scalable, and we need to move from this LCOE discussion to value of energy discussion. As I said before, we will change our way of interacting with our customers because it will not be a pure transactional or deal-to-deal opportunistic relationship. We will build together a new way of interacting with customers, and Tommy will explain also with suppliers, in order to be scalable, predictable, and at the speed that this target demands. Finally, how does it look expanding the leadership on offshore? I will mention here three pillars. First of all, innovation. We will continue innovating. Just one data. One single V236 will produce the sufficient electricity to power 20,000 houses, compared to 40 houses that it was the first turbines that we were installing in the late 1980s. It's amazing.
We will continue investing in innovation. That's one of our major pillars of why we are leading the market. Second one, we have the global scale, and we have the volume, and we need to take advantage to efficiently operate our global supply chain. Third one, we will continue being the only true global player in the sector to avoid being exposed to certain markets or to some fluctuations. In offshore, we have our homework of course, but I think that the three pillars here, and the first one I will use exactly the same as in onshore, innovation. We do have a competitive product. It proves when we took the decision last year of investing heavily in offshore, it proves that it was the right decision.
Right now, you see there that we have seen in just some months materialization of two huge projects, one if you were in U.S., 2.1 GW , and one in Germany of 1 GW. We do have the product. Secondly, we will continue strengthening that external partnerships, and we are talking exactly with the same customers that are helping us to increase significantly our market share in offshore. Finally, we will invest in setting up the right footprint and the right supply chain in order to optimize the value of the products. Let's conclude here. We see a very attractive market outlook coming in the coming years. We still see some uncertainty in the coming quarters, and we do think that we have the right strategy and the right commercial strategy to create value together with our customers in this market.
In that way, as I said before, we will expand our leadership in onshore, and we will achieve our ambitious targets of also leading offshore. We are in front of the biggest revolution that the energy transition represents, and I think that, we have an incredible opportunity in Vestas of leading that incredible revolution. With that, I will leave the word to Thomas, that will talk about development, and thank you very much.
Thank you, Javier. Good morning, everyone. Nice to meet you. My name is Thomas. I'm Head of our development business unit. I joined the company back in 2019, and I really look forward to build on what Javier just teed up here. How do we address and how do we accelerate the transition, and what additional roles can investors play in this? We believe that doing development is a very important part of this. The presentation today intends to give you an insight into how we have set it up and how our ambitions are carved out.
If I refer back to Henrik's initial slides, speaking about the energy transition and the different scenarios that we potentially could look into, one of the intrinsics here is that we need to scale up the industry obviously. As we scale up the industry, we also need to scale up the volume, the amount of projects that we have out there. We believe actually investors, that we are quite uniquely positioned to help out, and I'll come back to some of the arguments for why we wanna do this. This slide is just to give you a feeling for the ambitions that we're looking into and that are expressed by our customers, oftentimes, right?
You have some of the big oil majors pitching in here with the ambitions in terms of how much they want to build out by 2030. I can assure you that one of the first questions that we are met with when we speak to customers is, "Can we look at your project portfolio?" There's a big demand for more projects. Why do we think that we are well positioned to do this? Well, first of all, the conditions that Javier also alluded to, the underlying markets obviously invites for doing more project business. We think we are also quite uniquely positioned to do this.
I'll come back to the details, but we do have some capabilities that are well fit for this, and obviously we do have a network during the past years of experience that we can leverage in the industry of project development. Second point, we can add a lot of value to our customers and our partners. One of the points that are very important when we are adding value, and that's coming back to the argument about value of energy, is that we, in due time, start to do the value engineering, as we call it, where we optimize the projects quite in detail.
That's something that we're able to do now that we are engaged very early in the projects, and we know that it's going to hold a Vestas turbine and a service contract onto it. That enables us to actually dig into the project and really optimize in the smallest detail, which obviously comes to the benefit of the customer eventually. It's a new solution, you could almost call it a package deal to some extent, right? When customers approach us, they buy the full package, so the project, the turbine, and the service contract. Obviously it also adds value to Vestas as this is a growing market, and we believe that we can grow it in a profitable way.
A little bit into the details of project development here. This slide intends to give you some insights into where we play. I suppose you can do project development and play in different ways. The way this slide is built up is by saying, well, first of all, there's different stages of development, right? Typically we see it takes between four and five years to develop an onshore wind project. It holds different nuances to it. Obviously the valuation of the project builds up over the years. The risk profile is initially very high, but lowers as we become more certain on permits and so on and so forth. The capital intensity increases as we approach or go through construction.
We need to place bonds and stuff like that, and actually the actual construction work, the equipment. There are different sort of angles in terms of placing yourself optimally, and we believe that we should place ourselves all the way from the beginning, so we are initiating greenfield projects and take it through to where construction starts. That's the point in time where we want to sell the project to the long-term owner of the asset here. That's the mechanics, if you will. That's the base case of what we do. What is it that we can do? Well, first of all, the technical capabilities in Vestas are well-fitted to project development. Some of the key elements that you need to have is obviously a good understanding of the wind resources.
Through the operating assets that we are managing through Christian's business, we have a lot of insights from the wind data. We also have a lot of insights from grids. We have a lot of grid experts that are often sought out by external parties, almost on a consulting basis, to help balance the grids. It can be quite tricky at times, and that's something that we can bring into the formula of crafting up a high-quality project. Obviously the micrositing, we know what equipment it's going to take eventually. The technical group that is actually sitting in Anders' organization is very close to project development, and we work closely together with these guys on a daily basis.
Obviously the financial strength of Vestas is also very important. As you move through, you saw on the previous slide, as you move through the phases of project development. It takes more capital, placing bonds, grid bonds and so on, so forth, warranties and so on. It's not an easy thing to contemplate if you're a small developer. So that fits very well to the size of Vestas. The global reach, as Henrik also alluded to, 80 countries, we can cover the globe in terms of where the wind is and where the opportunities are from a project point of view. Okay. Where are we? If you look at the left-hand side of the slide here, that tells the story about what have we done so far.
Over the past years, Vestas has actually already developed quite some projects, about 4 GW, and most of it from the U.S., obviously facilitated by the PTC scheme that we have had over there. Right now we have a pipeline of some 130 projects globally that we are developing, adding up to about 20 GW of projects. It's pretty sizable already now. We do have an ambition to increase this, probably up to between 30 GW and 40 GW, in a steady-state scenario. We're also covering different segments. You see this on the right upper side, you see the small sort of symbols there.
We're actually doing development in wind, obviously, that's our home turf. Also, from time to time, selectively moving into solar if we need to do so. There can be some technical, let's say, explanations for why we would do so. Hybrids, obviously, to get the capacity factor up on the parks. Power to X, the last one, is something that is accelerating as we speak, and something that we will speak to more in the future. A solid pipeline accelerating up and, obviously, illustrating the growth potential that we see in the business. What is the context of the CIP, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners acquisition that we contemplated about a year ago? Well, it actually fits very well to the whole setup around development.
First of all, if you remember the slide where we talked about the sort of buildup of the value of the projects. Well, when we originate these projects, we do have an interest in participating in some of that value upside that comes through the different phases. By taking a direct investment into CIP, we get part of that value upside. That's one reason. Secondly, we do also engage with CIP in co-developments. It could be, for example, in let's say new markets where CIP might have previous experience and where we are new from a development point of view, then we partner up with them and do co-development, as we call it, together with these guys.
Finally, which I think is almost the most important thing, is that exploring new technology, new innovation across the value chain is something that we enjoy doing with CIP as well. One example, as I alluded to before, is the Power to X. I'm sure you're all aware that that is a very high-growth area and hyped area for good reasons. It's something that we enjoy to work with CIP, as with other partners obviously as well, but just to name CIP in the context of the acquisition here, certainly a reason why we would also join these guys. It's also important for me to say that there's no exclusivity or anything like that. We are not obliged to work with CIP and vice versa, the other way around.
No sort of obligations on that side. Finally, I'd like just to give you a little bit of a teaser from a project that we recently sold in the U.S. called Twenty-Five Mile Creek. 250 MW project that we have been working on for some years now and sold it to one of our key accounts together with Javier and the sales team and are actually now progressing through to commissioning the project in 2022. An example of a project in the U.S. and as Henrik also alluded to before, we do expect that there's gonna be quite some project in the U.S. also over the next decade from a development point of view.
In conclusion, we believe that, as a developer and as part of Vestas, we are well equipped to contribute to the energy transition. We think we have the capabilities and the track record already. We can see it already year to date and also with the pipeline that we are building. We are absolutely certain that we can add quite some value to the overall company and the journey that Vestas is on. With that, thank you so much.
Yeah. Thank you both. Once again, we'll start with some questions here from the room if we see any. We can start with Mark.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Two questions. Firstly, with regards to the co-development model and offering turnkey solutions to clients, I mean, historically, that's absorbed a lot of balance sheet if you don't use project finance. As we've seen in the past, although projects you've done, such as ones in Romania, had nice capital gains on them, they tied up balance sheet for a prolonged period of time. How can you kind of address those problems? Further to that, I mean, the return on capital often tends to be lower than actually just producing the turbines. Also, one of the reasons I think Vestas didn't get into this industry more in 2008, 2009 was because the fear that customers who were also competing for land bank may decide not to take your machines. How do you feel that's addressed by moving back into co-development?
Thanks, Mark. Let me start by the last question that you have. I think we need to look at it as a non-finite number of projects that we're trying to, let's say, address here. Essentially, if it was a finite number of projects in the industry, I would agree with you on the argument that then we would be competing. That's not the case here. We're basically making the pie bigger. We are originating more projects for the industry to construct and operate. For that reason, I don't think and that's also confirmed by the dialogues that we have with our customers, it's not competition. It's basically just adding to it and using the skills and capabilities that we have at the best.
I think that's the first one. With regards to, or the last one. With regards to your first question on the balance sheet exposure, what we've chosen to do in the operating model for our development business is exactly to exit at the point before construction to avoid the situation that you're alluding to here. It's actually fairly light on the balance sheet, relative to the scenarios that you refer to. I suppose you can say it's a de-risked business model from that approach.
Yeah. If you allow me to add to the first answer. I'm meeting, well, probably two, three customers per day, and there are none of them that have told us that they don't need fully well-developed projects. We think, as a development, as a complementary part of our scope and never as a competition with our customers. The best proof is that all these projects, at the end of the day, are going to our customers. I think that is a complementary scope that we are offering to our customers and not a competition.
We have a question from Dan here in the front.
Dan Togo Jensen from Carnegie. For Javier, I was intrigued a bit by you saying that we should get away from the LCOE discussion. I guess the industry will continue to drive out and drive down costs. How should we think about that going forward? Is it because you as an OEM expect to keep more of that gain? Or h ow will that split be going forward, and how will it be visible to us in the financials at the end?
Thank you, and it's a very good question. I think that the, as I said before, there was a period where it was needed to demonstrate that we can be competitive, and now we have demonstrated that we are competitive. The LCOE will always be a parameter of evaluating projects. We need to continue being competitive in cost of energy against other sources of energies. Also, that crazy race in some cases has led to some inefficiencies in the complete supply chain. We have seen that the profitability of some of the actors in the sector is not as healthy as it should be.
That's my point there, is that remaining competitive, there's no need to go further in some cases, deteriorating the profitability of the full supply chain. That was much more the argument. It's not that we will not continue being competitive, it's that we need to redistribute the value through the entire supply chain. I think that that was much more the point.
I think we have a couple of questions from the line, and we'll start with Martin Wilkie from Citi.
Yeah. Thank you. Good afternoon. It's Martin from Citi. A couple of questions. The first one is just on how we think about the financials from your projects. Do you effectively book a gain on sale once you've completed the sort of that early development? Or should we see it more of almost like a loss leader for the project where Vestas ultimately sells turbines to customers? Just how we think about the profitability of your part of the business in the context of Vestas overall. Then I had a second unrelated question just around, we heard earlier about permitting still being a bottleneck.
Just if you are sort of more at the cutting edge of early developer projects, I mean, how do you get around that if some of the challenges are very much that these sites are just very, very difficult to come by? Thank you.
Yep. I think if I understood you correctly, Martin, the profitability side of it or how we book the profits, obviously the projects themselves has a profit to them. There's a return on the investment that we do contemplate during the project phase. Then obviously with the Vestas turbines, it also holds a profit to it. I hope that's kind of the buckets, if you will, the buildup of the total profit of this and how it's booked. What was the last question? Sorry, I didn't get that.
On permitting whether or not some of the challenges of permitting, you know, how do you see that given that you're at the very early stage of project development? Is the permitting side a constraint on your business?
No, it's not. It can be an issue depending on where we do development in the world of course, right? You have some parts of the world where permitting, I would call it, is less mature, the permitting processes are less mature. Then other markets where we completely know how the process will fall out and what is required to achieve the permitting. It differs a lot from country to country, I would say. Then also, obviously, we see that in the, let's say, the time that it takes to mature a project through the different phases.
Thanks, Thomas. The next question we have on the line is from Kristian Tornøe from SEB. It seemed that Kristian dropped out. There is a question from Deepa as well I can see on the line. Let's see if we can get her through.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes.
Yeah. Thank you. I have two questions for Javier. One is of the different markets you've talked about and the way there's different competitors. I think one question that's often asked is the Chinese competitors coming to eat your lunch in some of your key markets. Could you comment about the threat of the Chinese competitors for onshore wind and maybe even offshore? And secondly, just wanted to verify, you know, you've shared your short-term forecasts. Can you just confirm that that's global, including China? And you know, how would that picture look if you excluded China? Because I presume that's your main market. And maybe a last one, what is FOI? What's the full form of FOI that's shown on the slides?
Yes. Sorry. FOI is firm order intake. It's whenever we record a project as a firm and unconditional order from our customers. So that's. Sorry about that. That's an internal terminology. Sorry about that. Second one, it was about. The first one was about Chinese competitors. As I said before, we will never buy market share deteriorating our profitability or the quality of our products. We, of course, respect a lot all of our competitors, but today we think that we are offering a totally different product than the one that they are offering. I think that the best way of competing against Chinese competitors is by doing what we have been doing until now.
Investing in innovation, quality, and then of course, having a very, robust service department that delivers the expected business case to our customers. I think that is important. The second one, I have to say that you have to help me. What was?
Chinese.
That was the one that I have just answered. Sorry, can you help me with the.
The one. The mar. Sorry, the short-term market outlook. I think those numbers include China, the 93 GW now going to 160 GW.
We will see a drop. If we exclude China, we will see exactly the same effect during the coming two years. During the coming two years, there's going to be a drop, and the explanations are in line with what I have said during the conversation. There's one very clear, which is the U.S. market that is very promising in the medium and the long term. During these couple of years, well, one year and a half will be lower than what we have expected. We are seeing that the effects of COVID restrictions, transport congestions, and raw material fluctuations is delaying the discussions with the customers. It's not canceling any discussion or it's not any project that has been canceled, but there's a delay because we are together with our customers rebuilding the business case of those projects. I think that that's.
Thanks, Javier. It seems that we have Kristian with us again on the line. Let's see.
You do. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Great. Just to Javier on competition. I mean, you point out your superior ASP and sort of what you do to achieve that, but can you elaborate a bit on the competitive dynamic you are seeing, especially also in the light of Henrik's comment that the industry as a whole is simply earning too little money? Also specifically on the Q4 order intake, in terms of. I understand that Henrik said that you are seeing customer delaying decisions, but it does not seem that your competitors are having the same problems. Also sort of on the current decisive factors on orders. Thank you.
Yeah. Well, on the second one, I will go back to the answer of Henrik. First of all, we don't comment on the quarterly order intake until the quarter is finished. That we'll comment for sure in the beginning of February, no? Of course, there's a fact that the business cases have been re-studied in most cases, and we are discussing, so we are seeing that delay. Of course, I cannot comment on the specific results, mainly because we have not finished the quarter. In relation to the competitors, I have to say that the ASP is a reference, but I think that what is important is to deliver a constant profitability in the market in the results of the company.
What we are doing, of course, is reevaluating the cost of all the projects, and based on that, we are creating value through many other levers in order to minimize the impact, first of course for Vestas, and secondly for our customers. That's the best way of protecting the projects and the volume. I think that we have seen different strategies from our competitors. I will not comment here my opinion about if it's the right or the wrong strategy, but the only thing that I can say is that we have a firm, and we have a solid strategy on that in terms of pricing and in terms of commercial strategy. I think that this is what I can comment here. I cannot talk specifically about what other competitors are doing.
Thanks, Javier. You two were fast through the presentation, so we have a little bit more time for Q&A. I saw, Gustav has a question, and then Claus afterwards.
Thank you. Gustav Fridén, Handelsbanken. A follow-up on the competition. If you look at the mid, long-term growth outlook, it looks very promising. Let's see where it ends up. In a scenario where we see sort of 200 GW-300 GW installations annually, do you find it realistic that we would have this very high market consolidation ex-China? We're talking like 90%. Or do you think we'll see a situation where the Chinese players will start serving the market ex-China as well? If not, what kind of time do you need to scale the business in order to keep your market share?
No, I think that what is important in the short term is that the market demonstrate that we are maturing as a market. Maturing means that we redistribute the profits or that all the companies throughout the entire supply chain are profitable, which is not the case today. I think that while it sees the companies that are not making money, I think that the consolidation will continue. I think that that's one thing. Regarding Chinese, well, it depends a lot on how the specific Chinese market evolves and how the rest of the world, financing, customers, et cetera, accepts to have a totally different product. I always like to say that we are selling something different.
It's not the same thing, when we are comparing our products with those products. So I think that the consolidation will continue if we are not capable of redistributing the profits through the entire value chain. Then regarding Chinese, I think that well, they need to step up significantly, mainly in technology and in service, in order to be truly global players.
Let's have a question from Claus Almer, if you still have one.
Yeah. Hi, this is Claus Almer from Nordea. Coming back to the market outlook that you are saying is going to slipping next couple of years. I believe in the past you have said all depending on the market, but you did not see a negative revenue development in the coming years. Has that changed given the market forecast?
Well, in terms of revenue and financial results, I think that this is something that you can ask Marika later in the finance part. In terms, what I'm showing here is total volume. I think that well, it's still premature to say how much of that volume are we targeting. Of course, we want to maintain and expand our market share, meaning that we do not expect a significant drop. I think that is better in terms of revenue that you ask Marika at the end of the day. Yeah.
Just to be sure, so you say you do not expect a major drop. I think that's how you quoted it. Do you have a backlog that is supporting a growth, or do you see a dropping?
We have a backlog that supports the growth, but we will present our expectations for 2022 again in February. Yes, we have 24 GW, EUR 17 billion of backlog in turbines. You can calculate more or less what is our order coverage. Our expectations for the next year will be presented in February.
There's a question from, Frank over here.
Thanks for it, Thomas. Thanks for the presentation. On the face of it, you're adding quite a bit of complexity to a business that already has a certain level of complexity by adding development. Is there a future scenario where this could reduce the level of complexity of the business overall by providing more visibility, or is that too distant to be realistic?
I think that it's probably too distant by now, but I would probably I wouldn't say that we're adding a lot of complexity because the way that we've set it up organizationally, it's a separate business unit. In that regard, it runs by itself. We're not sort of, we're sort of building on top of the big investors, if you will. Obviously working together with Anders Nielsen on the technology side and Javier on the turbine sales side and so on. The unit itself sits as a separate organizational unit. I don't think that we at least internally see it as an added complexity.
A question from Peter over here.
Thank you. Can you comment a bit about how you see the competition from solar? I understand, of course, in some markets, they can complement each other. But if the cost curve of solar continues to decline and you try to raise your prices, I guess the gap between solar and wind will increase, and people would allocate capital to solar. How do you view that situation?
Well, I think that the first thing is that well, you have seen we have talked about disruptions during our presentation. If we have had disruptions, the solar sector have had huge disruption during the last quarters and during the last month. I think that the first thing is that well, it needs to be a profitable and sustainable sector, which I hope that it will be. They have to demonstrate that they continue to make sustainable profitability in the sector, and that means that this LCOE decrease will not continue at the same pace. They need to start generating money. We don't see as a competitor to solar. We are seeing as some complementary source of energy in many, many markets.
We are seeing more and more hybrid projects, and I think that the future. How I see it is that there has to be complementary in this path of growth that I was mentioning. There will be some markets where the solar will be higher than wind and the opposite, depending on the natural resources, the grid connection, and the customer needs. I always see as a complementary. This curve is just wind. The growth curve is just for wind.
Maybe a short follow-up. I don't think I fully understand that, because customers, they have a CapEx budget. They look at project RRRs, and if they can get a better return from solar instead of wind, why would they not allocate to solar instead of wind?
What I'm saying is it depends on the market. There are customers that have a higher share of solar and a lower share of wind, and the opposite. I think that what is important is that they have the best solution for each and every project. I think that it's not just a question of price. I think that when we are talking about value of energy, solar has a totally different shape of the supply than wind. That's why I'm saying that it's very complementary in those markets. The value of energy of wind is higher than the value of energy of solar, because solar is much more concentrated in certain periods.
We have a question on the chat for you as well, Javier, on the offshore side. Both in terms of how do you see the price development there, but also how do you see customers perceiving the new turbine?
Okay. Well, in terms of pricing, we don't comment about future pricing. We have a strategy there. As I said, I'm extremely happy of the welcome that all our customers have had of our new product. We are in discussions with many customers in, as I said, U.S., Europe, and Asia. It has brought a lot of attention of everyone. The point that, sorry for repeating myself, it's really competitive because it has proved that in just some months, we have signed the first two PSA, well, preferred supplier agreements. So it's competitive. In terms of pricing, well, whenever we announce the orders, you will see how is our leeway, our levels whenever we have a firm and unconditional order.
There was actually a follow-up question for you, Thomas, on the offshore as well. That, of course, development is not actively engaging in offshore right now, but what is the timeline and the thinking about entering into that as well?
That's a very good question, and it's absolutely right that that's sort of our home turf from a development is onshore wind. We do see opportunities selectively to move into offshore development, preferably in what we call new markets. Kind of the future or the next wave offshore markets. That's probably where we would consider to move in. The base is for sure onshore development.
That sounds good. There is another question for you, Thomas, on the chat in terms of your ambitions for development. Do you have an internal order intake target?
Yes, we do.
I would assume the question would be what it is.
We have an internal order intake year by year, and we are basically building that up, contributing to, together with Javier and the sales team, to the overall target of Vestas. So absolutely, yes. We have an internal target. I don't think we disclose exactly what they are and how they stack up, but we're quite ambitious, actually, I can tell you that.
I think that we cannot isolate that target from the overall order intake of Vestas, because I think that, in some cases it's a multi-project agreement and a specific project agreement. Optimizing just one target will not optimize the overall order intake of Vestas. I think that is much more important, the overall order intake as a company, than the specific targets of each of the different contributors, no?
It's also, you know, when we have a project that is ready to be sold, Javier and myself work closely together to, let's say, optimize the way that we leverage the project, right? In the context of our key accounts, globally. It's yeah.
Any final question from the room here? Claus has one.
Claus Almer from Nordea. In the old days, we saw these big gigawatt frame agreements being announced, both by Vestas and some of your competitors. Now you're talking about partnerships with clients, and I'm talking onshore. We don't see these frame agreements really being announced anymore. Is that just because you don't want to announce them or don't you get a frame agreement when you do a partnership?
No, I think that we have a very strict, and I think that we will continue to having that strict way of communicating a frame agreement. We only communicate order when they are firm and unconditional, meaning, well, down payment, well, contract signature, down payment, and payment security received for that specific order. We are signing collaboration agreements, and we are discussing collaboration agreements with our customers. The announcement moment will be the moment where we have firm and unconditional orders. That's frame agreements can be of different nature. Can be collaboration, can be a preferred supplier, can be market share, can be firm orders. It's a global way of defining our way of interacting with our customers. In firm order announcements, we will follow strictly the definition.
Thanks for that. With that, we end this Q&A session, and we will have some lunch for us here in the room. I hope the ones sitting at home can do the same. We'll be back five minutes after two.
I think we are at 2:05 P.M. Let's see if we give a couple of minutes more to get people into the room. I will look at you, Matthias, to tell me when to start. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Anders Nielsen, and I'm the CTO of Vestas, and I've joined the company in 2020 in April. I have a background in the automotive industry. I'll try to keep you awake after lunch. Hopefully, I will manage with that. Talking about Vestas' current technology portfolio. We'll look into the modular foundation of how we work, onshore and offshore synergies, and a bit into the future solutions. I think you've over the years probably seen this. We have the widest offering to the market of all the OEMs in the business.
We have the 2 MW platform, still active, launched in 2000, where we sold more than 55 GW on that platform. We have a 4 MW platform that came in 2010, where we sold also more than 50 GW on that. We have a 9 MW platform, which was the first offshore platform or the bigger offshore platform, where we sold 5 GW of that. Then we have the new platforms coming in, which is the EnVentus platform with more than 5 GW of firm order intake, and where we have actually started the modular architecture, which then can carry across both onshore and offshore.
We have the next generation of offshore designs, the V236-15.0 MW, where we have then come up to 3 GW of PSA, preferred supplier agreements, and we really see that it has a good potential as a platform moving forward. We have a wide offering. We have a wide coverage of the market, not only from a technical point of view, but also from a geographical point of view, as Javier showed you before. We talked about. There's a number of things changing in the business, and this is challenging us from a business setup, but also from a technology point of view. We see a very rapid growth in the business, as said before.
That means that of course, the complexity in the value chain growth, and we also need to get the whole build-up of the capacity done and also limit us a bit in how fast can we actually have a product cycle turnover. Because if you're going to build 300 a year gigawatt in capacity, then you need to make sure that also the whole supply chain can use that for a certain point of time. Building on platform where you can launch performance that built on the same platforms will improve the opportunity to actually get your money back in the products you invest in. We have the availability of attractive sites, as mentioned by Thomas and also by Henrik before. That means that we need to go to places, to sites where the climate is not optimal.
It could be harsh climate, it could be lighter winds than before, which means that we actually have to have a product that can also adapt to that type of circumstances. The third part that also been mentioned before is that we have the limitations of the grid. The limitations of the grid means that if you do go a full electrification journey of the all the type of industries that need to be electrified, the grid will not be able to carry that amount of energy. That means that we need to look into behind the grid solutions, island solutions, where we can actually produce renewable fuels without connecting to the grid. Standalone, where you also have the renewable resources in a different way. A different technology where we need to look into.
To have this value creation, that means that we need to be really good at making the site customization. We need to be able to have the right product for that specific site, those specific conditions. At the same time, we need to be able to work with an internal standardization, meaning that we use the same building blocks across different solutions. We need to have the scalability, as mentioned before. We need to make sure that we get an optimization of the CapEx deployed, and we need to be able to leverage both partnership on the customer side and on the supplier side. The answer to this is what we are addressing as modularization, which is customization using internal standardized building blocks. This is how we're trying to create the value.
We see a big opportunity to create the value in the industry this way. I mean, if you make the very simplistic picture, you would paint it like this. You have the towers, you have the nacelles, you have the blades, and you are able to combine different nacelles on different towers, different blades, different blades on different nacelles to be able to create optionality to the market. Of course, in reality, it goes deeper into the technical systems, how I'm able to deploy the subsystems across the different turbines and making sure I don't have to develop a pitching system for all the turbines uniquely. I can actually use the same technology, and I can scale it up and down to the capacity that the performance needed.
That is really the essence behind the whole thing about modularization is going down to subsystem levels, making sure I can carry that technology onwards across the whole portfolio. I get volume scale, and I can work with my suppliers with that. I can also offer from the service side that actually servicing a Vestas turbine has a lot of similarities, no matter if it's onshore or offshore, no matter if it's 4 MW or the EnVentus. That type of solutions will simplify and reduce the complexity in our business across the value chain. We've been on this journey for a while. We started out in 2014 with the conceptual work, the first module concept done in 2018.
We had the EnVentus launch in 2019. Now in 2021, it's been quite a busy year. We have had the launch of the 236, which is built on the same modularity. We had the modularized nacelle that we actually launched in the Electric City just a couple of weeks back. We have the new next generation of EnVentus with the next performance steps of the EnVentus. We will expand this modularity across all the different turbines we have, across a complete turbine system, and also into the plant level. I mean, sometimes when we talk, we talk simplistically about turbines. We are selling power plants. We are selling the whole controlling of the plant, including software to make sure that we get a deployment of energy into a grid. That functionality lies in what we call the plant level.
With that, I'd like to actually show you a little bit of film. This video we used to launch the modularized nacelle here in the Electric City, and it shows a little bit of how we compartmentalize the different systems in the turbine. What we want to address with a modular approach is really create an efficient design, meaning that we have the time to market by using a carryover system between different products, we can actually shorten our time to market. We want to make sure that we can maximize the AEP in the different sites we are unlocking customer value.
Improve the site ability, and that means in normal language that we need to have some performance step in cooling, performance step in anti-icing systems, meaning that you can't have a standardized product that have to carry the cost of all those systems because you don't need them in different sites. You need to make sure you have it correct for the site, and you have the abilities of the product for a specific site, but not carry costs across all sites. That optionality we also need to create. We need them for the production, making sure that we can reutilize the CapEx in the production so we minimize the total CapEx need. We need to break the transport curve. I mean, when you come into the very, very heavy transports and very, very large objects, of course, the transport cost goes exponentially upwards.
By breaking that in packages which is easier to transport, we can also break that curve. The third, or sorry, fifth, but not smallest part by any means, is that we also need to make sure we have the right quality. Quality is making sure you use proven systems across different environments and different product types. If you're just every time starting with a white piece of paper, you might be solving some of your legacy problems, but you always create some new ones. Having that stability and carryover technology is also key to the future good quality. This is a little bit what you saw from the video as well. A divided nacelle basically in one main nacelle housing and a side compartment.
In the side compartment, we have the power unit, which is basically the converter and the transformer. That side compartment, we can then use across the same OEM across different products. The main nacelle housing, we can optimize that for assembly and for the assembly optimized nacelle structure. To have those interfaces done right. We creating simple interfaces where you can lock, hang on the side compartment to the main nacelle, where you have a click-on interface, you have a single access locking solution, meaning that when you yaw it to the wind, you're not creating any sideward movements. That's not a load-carrying item at all. We have a heavy duty interface.
Everything of the heavy loads comes very close to the tower, meaning that we create good weight distribution in the whole system. I mentioned before as well that we have the possibilities of synergies across onshore and offshore. If you go back to that side compartment, that side compartment is actually the same between the EnVentus next generation and the V236-15.0 MW, meaning that we can carry those systems, we can try it onshore, we can get the full footprint benefits of having the same across offshore and onshore. It gives the same standardized connection interface. We have this, as I said, the common power unit. The onshore transportation can be split up. Even for the onshore, offshore products, we have a part that is onshore transportation, getting it to the assembly harbors.
As I said, also, as well, that we can also position the heavy components as close to the tower as possible to minimize the loads of the product. The modularity, this advanced modularity, it enables a scalability for us. We have the modular nacelle, which gives us benefits for the transport solutions. We have also, as you saw very rapidly in the video, the possibility of a service crane. A service crane is basically a hoist up crane. It hoists up itself, and then that can be used to exchange heavy components, meaning that you don't need to bring an expensive crane to site. That's a way of also bringing down the OpEx, meaning that we have a more easy and more beneficial service costs. It also creates opportunities for the future innovations.
We have a flexible possibility to put on other functionalities on the turbine. You can have grid forming capabilities, meaning that to start a turbine today, I mean, we have always been able before to actually lean the renewable energy into a stable grid. Now, with the more and more penetration of renewables, you get more and more intermittency into the grid, and that means the grid forming capability of the turbines will be very important, meaning that we actually can stabilize the grid, or dispatch the energy in the right way to the grid. You can deploy battery storage to it as well. Dispatchability means that I can actually deploy energy when I need it.
Javier talked about the value of energy too versus LCOE, and sometimes I think there is a little bit of a misconception here. The LCOE is the average cost of energy when we calculate it. Of course, if you add a battery to a product, you will increase the LCOE. You add cost. You can't produce more, but you create the opportunity to actually dispatch that electricity when the price is right. It actually addresses that, the revenue side of the customers rather than the cost side of the customers.
That is when we say when we want to work with the value of energy, it means that we also, together with the customer, can work on functionalities that actually create a better top line for the customers, and that's where the common value creation lies. Power to X. I think hydrogen, green hydrogen has been on everybody's lips in the whole discussion in COP26, getting into energy transition. Here we can also deploy an electrolyzer up tower, which actually makes a lot of sense because pipelines are cheaper than high voltage cables. There's a number of optionalities that we can play out in the when we create these more flexible platforms, so we can reuse as much as possible over time.
The value creation through the plant solution, as I mentioned before, is really we have a number of software capabilities. You mentioned them before, Thomas. It's already in the development phase, we have the customer risk and value prediction. We have the value optimization on business case certainty, meaning that we can predict the output of a certain location. We have the efficient grid connection and life and compliance. We have the full life cycle operations and value optimization that goes both into the construction phase, but also into the operating phase and where we have the service over lifetime. We have the cybersecure operations and plant communications. Of course, we need to secure that these assets they are connected.
We have the possibility to get the data from them, but also that they're safe from a cybersecurity point of view. These modularized hardware and software solutions that will give a full life cycle customer value, and that is also what we're tapping into in the recurring business opportunities. Just as a little bit of a taster as well. We are actually in the first dynamic wind to ammonia plant in Ramme. It's a pilot project, but it will be commercial, where we have the responsibility of integrating wind and solar to the electrolyzer, making sure that we have that knowledge of how you dispatch the electricity to the whole electrolyzer and maximize the output of the hydrogen.
Together with Haldor Topsoe that's doing then the ammonia plant on that side of it. This is very important for us to step into these different projects because that creates a learning for us as well, and we develop the technology as we go. We're pretty well on our way in this one. Another interesting way of looking at this, where again, we talk often only to the turbine side. We worked with Microsoft and minds.ai, looking into how do you actually create, how do you take away wake losses in a farm. When you build a big wind farm, the bigger the turbines get, the more they will actually create wake to each other.
You can actually, by letting the turbines talk to each other, you can open them up and yaw them a little bit differently to avoid that loss. By applying AI to it, you can actually have that farm teaching itself, how should I, in different wind direction, correct the yawing of the different turbines to actually maximize the output of the farm. That can give up to 1.5% extra AEP out of a farm just by having that internal communication optimization. We've done a great job with minds.ai, and we see quite a big opportunity moving forward here as well. Key takeaways. We are leading in turbine solutions, and of course, we have the ambition to continue to be so.
With the EnVentus and the V236, we have created modular platforms where we can leverage the technologies between the different platforms. Scalability. With this modular approach, we can also create a good base for scalability of the industry, where we can, together with customers and suppliers, make sure that it's actually possible to scale it from a CapEx perspective, from a reuse perspective. We are creating the renewable integration. We have new energy solutions from Power to X and how to create stable grids. We are also having very good capabilities in that area, and we see that as a very big part of our future business as well. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Anders. My name is Tommy Rahbek Nielsen. I'm COO at Vestas, and I joined Vestas in 1997. My name has been mentioned a couple of times today about something with cost, something with transportation, and I would love to stand here and say, "It's all gone." Unfortunately, it's not. I'll take you through a little bit about our business starts with safety and quality, volatility and cost headwinds, little bit what we're doing about it, and also shaping for the future. What is actually COO? We have four areas. Procurement, that's the procurement area across the whole value chain, from the beginning, also substations, et cetera, throughout the value chain to service.
Supply chain and transport, a key area for us, even more key than we ever were before, not just due to the cost, but also some of the things that Anders talked about, the modularization, how can we optimize across the value chain logistically? Of course, manufacturing. Manufacturing for me is our own sites, but also the partners we have in. Last, or maybe we should start out with safety, of course, but quality, health and safety and environment. Our turbine deliveries has gone up from 8 GW in 2015 to 17 GW in 2020. 116%. But if you see the number of turbines, it's not grown the same way, but complexity has grown significantly between the years. We're having sites across +15 countries. Of course, we are bringing in the 80+ countries that Javier talked about early on.
We have to have a service, set up there and supporting service with procurement, et cetera. Then we have 21 internal sites and 92 external sites across the world. More than 400,000 shipments from 41 different countries. 600+ vessels. Think about that number at the end. Safety always comes first, no doubt. That goes for us, goes for our colleagues, it also go for our partners. There's been a steady decline in the number of incidents we had. In 2017, we had more than 250 people gotten injured. This year it's 150. At the same time, we've grown from being 23,000 to 30,000 people. It's still 156 too many. We always strive for zero. That's also how you get steadiness, get quality up. They're linked together.
A little bit of how we have been actually dealing with this pandemic. Now it's just become part of our daily life. I've been sitting in COVID-19 meetings in week 4, 2020. I still remember the first case. It's not as exciting, but it's still as critical that we stay alert and mitigate. We have the anchored with me in ExM, but in a cross-functional team, in a global setting, but also in a local setting, in a regional setup. We comply to all legislation which is out there, and then we put something on top to ensure that our operations can keep running. We have a close cooperation with our suppliers. A little bit of what Henrik talked about at the beginning, the magnitude of our business now and also the impact in society if we fall out is significant.
Therefore, we are part of the critical infrastructure. That's also what we work with our suppliers about, stakeholders, to ensure that we had no disruptions in our operations. We have no long-term shutdown in any of our factories. We have factories at suppliers, we help them to get started again, and that's what I think is true partnership, because we depend on them, they depend on us. Quality. In the years from 2016 to 2020, we built 8 new factories, launched 16 products, added 8,000 people to the workforce, not necessarily investors, but with partners. That gave a challenge. Little bit what Anders was talking about, how can we come to a modularization? How can we launch better products in a steady way? We have to go from a quality where it's only about the product.
It's not just the product, it's the end product which will end up if we do mistakes early on. We were very internal-focused, not customer-focused. The QSE department was responsible for quality. It's not the case. It starts with me, all of us. Limited ownership and many new variants adding complexity. There was a question about complexity early on. Maybe it's not due to the product, but it is a complex product. We're in four different industries: composites, electronics, assembly, and steel. They need to be combined. We have to live quality, and we put also some rules up for ourselves, and also have some values to this. Stop and speak up if you're in doubt. That goes throughout the chain. If there's something you see is not, you don't know what is, you stop and speak up. Same as for safety. Adhere to processes.
We're growing industry, probably also a little bit opportunistic still, entrepreneurial. I think also the words been used, but we need to adhere to processes throughout this, not just Vestas, but as an industry. We need to grow up. Do it right first time. We will make mistakes. How we fast learn from our failures, our mistakes, and how we get them back in the chain, get the change design, get them out to the suppliers, and get back out to the customers. That's absolutely key for us. Increase customer value. Quality starts with me throughout the value chain. We had our first quality day official here in November throughout the company and had engaged 30,000 people into that, and that's quite a momentum now.
There's no doubt that the modernization that Anders just talked about will lead all to a standardization and a more steady way of working, and also how we introduce product, but also how we run a operation together with our partners. Preparing for the future. Scaling and leveraging. Cost inflation. I would have loved to stand here and say it's gone. It's not. 2022 will be difficult. Yes, I know they are predicting, say yeah, all cost inflation are going back into 2022 and into 2023. We had to prepare ourselves for a little bit longer time. I'll come back later to where we work on mitigations and how we work with that. Onshore and offshore synergies is in the midst right now. How we're gonna look into the future, how we combine the two.
A little bit what Anders talked about also, because Anders is gonna give me a nice life with lower CapEx and easier to implement products as well. I'm looking forward to that, Anders. I say that with a smile because this is a, it's a collaboration across the value chain, not just Vestas, but also upstream and downstream in our value chain. Last but not least, leverage on supply chain synergies and scalability. Scalability is a key thing in our industry that we need to grow up. We're not super good, have been super good in scaling. Now is the time, especially looking into the growth, also what was presented earlier by Henrik, that growth we have to scale towards. We have now a chance, also a couple of years where we really have to be ready for after that.
We can't talk about the future before we a little bit relate to where we are today. We all can talk about transportation. We also saw at the beginning about steel has gone up. Also disruptions, and we have to learn that disruptions out there. Coming from a 2-3 days congestion to on average 20 days congestion is an issue, and how can we get back on track? That we can do with partnerships. A partner like Maersk who sits on the assets, who can control the assets, of course, they can't control the weather yet, but for sure that makes us more comfortable in that situation. Also giving longer term visibility to our partners, not just our own operations, but to partners about how they should invest, where they should go, which market to go for.
As we've also been looking into new markets, as Javier talked about, local content is not necessarily super good, but we all have to work with that and find a way through and still stay profitable. We also work with indexation, especially on the vessel side. There are shortages on vessels. 600+ vessels, as I said earlier. 15% of the overall vessels have been turned from oversized cargo into going with containers, meaning capacity is going away or gone to something else. Locking in raw materials, we work with our partners. We're locking in the firm orders to the extent possible, but it's not as possible in all commodities. We're making long-term agreements with our suppliers and try to secure us that way. Last but not least, also applying the toolbox financial hedging.
I think we're fairly immature in our industry yet, so we still have something to learn, and we keep learning day by day, and we are gonna play the full toolbox to secure ourselves also going forward. Just one thing, the average schedule reliability has dropped with 50%, meaning disruptions in the value chain, cranes availability gone, etc. That's a challenge for us, and that's why we need to work closely with partners and also tie them in. Little bit how do we work on driving efficiency. In the triangle it says risk, cost, and scalability. We've all been driving hard towards going to China and been very dependent on China. We need to diversify ourselves on the value chain as it is now on the supply chain.
Also what Javier talked about, we need to get sustainable supply chains, so therefore we'll have to work also how we've gone that across the continents we're working on. The curve is breaking mainly due to transportation here, because this is our manufacturing cost and the transportation cost here, which is actually giving the spike. We keep working with standard work, meaning we want to be like clockwork. We normally say to our factory being reliable and boring. Boring meaning no hiccups, you just deliver as it is. Therefore, we need to get those disruptions away, and we work with steady tools, how we introduce new products. Because one thing is getting the design, they also need to get out in the value chain. There's probably between 5 and 10,000 components in the turbine.
They all need to come through a value chain and come into a factory, be assembled, and go out again. This is no excuse I'm trying to make. That's what we need to be good at, and I think we are good at it. Again, more on the partnership side, that we have to work on and give them visibility as well as for ourselves. What does the future look like? How can we standardize more? Then last but not least, also outsourcing of main components. We'll focus on what we're good at, what is the core, where is the value creation, and then we leave some of those components who are better to do that than us. I said it was last one. There's actually one more. We all have always had a talk in the past about low-cost countries.
We talk about best cost countries, because with the disruptions, transportation costs going through the roof. How do we mitigate that? That will be that we look into the best cost countries. How we are supplying suppliers to us, but also from us to the sites where they are in the world. We realize now synergies across offshore and onshore. On the procurement side, we get some scale. We actually had quite an overlap and there was also something when we took onshore back offshore back in that there is also supplier base we're consolidating on. But also on the materials across both an offshore machine and onshore machine. In the new design, it's the same. Then in our industry, CapEx intensity, it is a challenge for us.
It's something we need to work on across the value chain to ensure we actually get that intensity in the right level. We need to optimize our footprint, our network. Say, well, I'm coming back to that. Logistics, as I said it before at the beginning, that becomes absolutely key, how we're gonna drive the supply chain, how we're gonna drive logistics, how we're gonna drive the transportation, trucking, crane installation, how we're gonna tie that whole chain together. That's absolutely key by advanced planning, methods, but also how do we get utilization of some of our plants. There's one caveat to that. When you're then exposed to a local content, there might be a big bill come out in the U.S., but there's also a requirement to produce a lot of stuff in the U.S.
They're not available in U.S., so that supply chain need to be built. Quality, as I said before, it has to be there. That's where we have to grow up as an industry, us, our suppliers and partners. It has to come through the design. It also has to come with the integration with suppliers and partners, so we make sure it's actually executed at the beginning. We've been talking before about functional cost out, functional set up, cross-functional end-to-end. Now we talk ecosystems, and what is ecosystems? When we're setting up a factory, that's probably the easy part when we set up a factory. The difficult part is how do you tie your ecosystem around it, meaning your supply base, making sure you have the best country sourcing, best set up logistically, thereby also avoiding disruptions and risks.
That's what we're working on now and tying suppliers closer to us and partners closer to us. In the future, that is what is gonna unlock the full potential. We build that ecosystem, and we're gonna do that here by integrating offshore into our footprint. When I say footprint, it's a whole ecosystem together with my supply base. What do we then mean when we say partnerships? Few, bigger, better. More capabilities at the suppliers is needed at some of them. We definitely have good partners today like Maersk, ZF, Winergy, better. They have the capabilities. They still have to grow, but they also have to grow towards the growth we have in the coming years to be ready for that.
'Cause if you look back in time, they were holding back, and that's also why we call it partnerships now and give them the visibility where we go, where we expect to go. Also enabling the modularization. That's why we need the suppliers to lean into us and ensure that they are part of the journey. That's what we mean about shared vision and objectives. If you don't have shared vision and objectives, you probably know that from your private life as well, if you don't get aligned about what you wanna do, it becomes a little bit messy and a bit complicated. We're willing to open up and share, but we're also asking for leaning in. Strategic alliances, which probably between 8 and 10 of our supply base, which we will determine as being strategic alliances. The joint growth.
That means we're leaning in. The supply base needs to lean in as well. We're coming from safety, quality, delivery, and cost, which have brought us far, very far. I will say here during the pandemic time, it has been absolutely excellent. We probably already moved to the other side. Safety, quality, delivery, and cost stay, adding scalability, sustainability, and supply network. We launched products globally and started factories during the pandemic, where we in the past needed to have a lot of people traveling out, people then travel back to be trained.
We've done it virtually. Starting a blade factory in India, in Chennai, with four molds that need to be installed from people never done it before needs quite a support. That can only happen if you have a resilient and a foundation to build on, and you use the whole muscle of the company to ensure it happens. Launching a new product, the EnVentus platform was launched into our Chinese assembly line without having anybody coming to Ringkøbing to being trained, without having anybody from Ringkøbing coming to China. Somebody's probably sitting there, "Are you sure about that quality, Tommy?" 100%.
The turbines are already up spinning. It also requires that we think differently. It requires we challenge ourself. I do not hope I need another COVID-19. I don't think any of us are hoping for that. For some time you learn very fast, but when you have a foundation to build on and you stand on, you're also secure. Also have an organization that works with that. Scalability and supply network is absolutely key for us. Key for our industry, it's key for Vestas, key for our customers, and to actually reach that growth we expect, and that requires the partnerships.
The key takeaways from my presentation here, managing complexity, I think that was the question, how are you gonna manage that complexity? We can manage that. We have a foundation to stand on, to build on, but it requires also we will actually integrate more with our partners. The modularization will lead to a huge standardization in our value chain, and thereby also reaching the benefits we need. The supply chain evolvement, it doesn't come overnight, but it has to evolve within the 5 to 10 years, otherwise we're not gonna manage that growth that is coming to us. We dare to work also differently than what we do today. It's not just about us and suppliers, it's us as an industry that also need to tap into and do things differently. Last but not least, the partnerships.
You're probably saying, "He keep saying, talking partnerships." We have great partnerships today. We took a new partnership with Maersk. We had a set of key cornerstone in our whole setup of the turbine. They are true partners, and those we need to build more on. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Tommy. Thank you, Anders. Let's again start with some questions here from the audience. Dan first.
Thank you. Dan Togo, Carnegie. Maybe first for Anders on the EnVentus platform, where do you stand out compared to your competitors? Because when we approach competitors of you, they claim, "Well, we are doing modularization, we are doing exactly the same. Can you make a few points or maybe enlighten us a bit, where do you believe you stand out, and can you raise any claims, any IP you can take out and say, "This is ours"?
I think we can, first of all, yes, we do have quite a lot of IP that's protecting the way we are doing things compared to others. Is there a lot of similarities in the business? Yes, it is. I think what we have been able to show already is that we actually can scale up the business, and we can do that with the profitability. That comes of course that we have. As I said, this journey has been going on since 2014, so it had kind of a proven record as well. It's hard to describe it without going into the details, because the detail is really in, for instance, our converter. That's built in multiple steps.
We use the same across the 4 and the 6 MW platform into the 50 MW. It's how we reuse that technology and how we get leverage on scale on that. Everyone can say it, right? I kind of understand the question, but the hard thing is I think we can prove it by the profitability, the way we are doing things. We see that we can actually scale this quite much faster. The modularized nacelle is a way of actually opening up the system. Everyone have a problem that when you change something in a nacelle, you get a ripple effect. You have to move all everything around, and it affects everything.
Now, by separating them in compartments, you can actually scale them independently without creating the same complexity when you change the product, meaning you can create performance steps, different levels for specific markets. I think that's where I guess I have to prove myself. We have to prove ourselves as a company that this will actually give us a leverage going forward. I know that everyone tries to say the same thing. I do have some experience from other companies as well. I think Scania is proving itself as well in modularization quite well compared to the rest, even though everyone says they are doing it. Somehow it's easy to say, hard to do.
Just a small follow-up. Yeah.
Yeah. That is rather to Tommy. About with such a fragile global supply chain we have at the moment, aren't you a bit concerned with the whole scale-up we are seeing for this industry going forward? What are your concerns with this scale-up we are going to see globally, and where will the first bottlenecks be? Won't we just stand in the same situation, let's say in two, three years with a disrupted supply chain, and what can you do to mitigate?
I think it's a good question because will there be disruptions going forward? 100%. That's why we are global, and we are working on all continents to make sure we de-risk that global setup. Also, how do you actually make that visibility for our suppliers? Because what I'm most concerned about is actually our supply base are holding back too long, and that's more on us, on me, making sure that is the view you have to take. Also, we're not afraid of making long-term agreements. I think we have a little bit of a reputation in the market. We only want a 1-year agreement out there, and then we're just humming along. That's not the case anymore. We are very much going into the 5-6 years agreement, if that's what it takes, on the key and core areas.
That's what I believe because it's on us that we tell where do we see it's gonna be. There will still be disruptions, right? There's also depending on how you diversify. The world is a little bit in a all the work we did towards China back in time with the low cost, we just hammer in China, we became extremely vulnerable. Especially now, and also with the U.S. and also we're depending on the U.S., but we got way too dependent on China. That's why we diversify now and building a supply chain in India as well, to ensure we have a complementary. There will need to be something in Europe as well.
If perhaps just adding to that. To have really the whole industry scaling up, of course, there is a dependency from everywhere, from all the way from policies to permitting to actually orders to supply chain capacity build-up. To get that going, there is events like COP26 is important because that should create some clarity of the intent where the industry is going and also the politicians getting behind it. Because that's by the end of the day, if you don't get visibility to the market, how it actually will grow, then of course there'll be lack of investment will.
A question from Claus.
Yeah. Claus Almer from Nordea. A two-fold question regarding quality. The first part of the question is, you know, when you look at provisions, you're looking at a lost production factor that has gone up for the last couple of years. Is that mainly the EnVentus platform or is also the 4 MW platform? That would be the first part. The second part is, as you didn't really address all these quality issues we have seen for the last couple of years, is that due to it is solved and fixed, so no more, or where are you in the whole, you know, repair of quality and efficiency in the production?
You want to start?
No.
First of all, I don't wanna go into the details of our provisions. I think I would happily leave that to Marika to the extent we want to comment on it. But I would put it like this. Of course, if you look into what I presented as the first slide, when it comes to how the volume is distributed in the market, you can see where we have the big volumes. Of course, that also corresponds to where we have had the quality issues. I mean, you don't get a big quality issue of something that's not in the market yet. It is what's in the market that we've been fixing.
I think by that being said, that's why we're very confident in that we are actually doing work in a more prudent way today than we. I mean, it has been a big growth for the company, and we are working a lot in our methodology, our simulations, our way of predicting quality. I can say, so I'm very confident in the way of working, and we see improvement in that. I don't know if you wanna comment on that.
I can just add to what you were saying, Anders. I've been in the company for quite some time, and also see how we evolved and also the growth, but also the handovers between the various functions between Anders and my function, which we have changed. We're not allowing that you just throw something across the fence. No, it's a collaboration. We're forcing people together. We changed the product, the way we're actually launching products out in the factories. We will not launch in a factory if we don't pass an assessment each individual time.
That's why I had to talk about how you get into everybody. It starts with me. It's not just, hey, the product is what matters. It's also the processes around how we deploy out at the end of the value chain. I would say we are in a very different stage today than we were 2-3 years back, no doubt.
Let's take another one from Mark here.
Hi, it's Mark Freshney from Credit Suisse. Anders, I was intrigued by the on your slide when you spoke about modularization at the plant level. Does that mean that, 'cause as I understand it, different parts of the world and different factories specialize in different machines. Does that mean that you'll be able to produce components for any type of turbine at one factory? Just secondly, on scaling up, I mean, we've seen in the past, for example, the offshore platform started as a 7, got to a 10. You know, the 3 MW platform started as a 3, I think got to a 4.5. The rule is it can go up 50%. Should we think about EnVentus in the same way, or is EnVentus able to scale up a lot more?
If I start by the last question first, I won't give you a prediction of where next product will be. That would probably be a spoiler. As you said, the history shows that when you enter into new platform, that is a starting point for something that you're able to stretch. I think the key issue here with having a flexible platform is that we can take those steps going forward as well and without having the same amount of change. That would be my key message when it comes to an EnVentus. The first question was?
In terms of manufacturing, at the moment, I believe that different plants in different areas of the world specialize in different machines. Will it be the case that, you know, that with the modularization, that you'll be able to produce many different versions of turbines in different plants, you won't have the same specialization in production?
I would say that would be the target, but of course, it takes a while before we have the full modularization across the platforms.
I think to add to that, we're actually producing more or less all turbine types. We have both a 4 MW and EnVentus in more or less all assembly lines already today. We are multi lines up there, but there's no doubt with the modularization really keying in on the next version, that will help even better. Also link that with the offshore side, that will, that's just some dimension on the offshore. There's a difference on the 400-ton versus a 100-ton thing you need to work on. Each factory has to be able to do that going forward. We need to be able to launch all products in all areas as well.
Thanks, Tommy. We'll have a question from the line. First up, we have Sean McLoughlin from HSBC.
Afternoon. Can you hear me?
We can hear you.
Super. Yeah, question for Tommy, I guess. Just thinking about your comment on long-term agreements. I mean, it appears to me that's a sign you're somewhat nervous about maybe locking in supplier capacity. I mean, we've come to structurally higher volumes in the onshore wind market, certainly, and if you add offshore wind on top of that. I mean, where are the key bottlenecks in the supply chain that you see over the next, let's say, three to five years? And how are you protecting yourselves from price fluctuations that you are signing in your long-term contracts?
I think first of all, we are gonna see also some specific parts, and also that goes together with design. How we design the turbine, what products are we using in turbine to ensure. We have been making long-term agreements before, but this is actually to tie on because they need to be a part of the development phase as well, and therefore being ready. What I'm concerned about is also what we've seen in the past, the supply lines comes in too late because we have not given the visibility to them. Have been probably a little bit reluctant. Also what I said, we're gonna work with a few bigger companies because they need to have a muscle as well to go into this and be ready for that growth.
A specific component, I don't think I can point out, but we're getting to some sizes where investments are heavy, they need to be made. I can tell going to ZF and CS Wind for the next, the 15 MW gearbox, that's a massive thing and investment for those guys and tolerances they have to work within. How do you match that between the technology development, the physics, and how actually we're gonna make the investments? That's probably some of the areas where if I should be concerned. When you have good partnerships and also strong capabilities, then I'm not so concerned.
Tommy, probably on the latter part of the question from Sean, in terms of how we secure ourselves on the cost inflation.
What we're doing, what I said early on where when we're locking in a project on a firm order, then we are trying to lock in on the commodities, especially steel and so on, because towers are specific, so we are locking the steel in that point in time, so we don't have the fluctuations. But they are part of our value chain where also there are no indexes below because they're driven by something. Resin and so on are driven by something as simple as chlorine. The next disruption we're probably gonna is there's not enough chlorine, and how do you combat that and make that indexation? What we're doing, we work upstream in supply chain, get to the chlorine guy, and actually how can we make an agreement with them, try to see. It's difficult because they're in a very different market situation right now.
Thanks.
Thanks, Tommy. We have the next question from Martin Wilkie from Citi.
Thank you. It's Martin Wilkie from Citi. Just a question in terms of the structure of how the contracts are working between your customers and then down to your suppliers. I mean, is this problem solvable in terms of the visibility that you have from developers, given that there could be a time difference between signing a PPA from the developer in terms of when you get that, when you then sign it with your supplier. I mean, is there a bigger issue here that the industry overall is not quite aligned as to when they all sort of lock in their risk?
Yeah. I think that's a good question because when you're selling in specific markets, you're selling at 2 or 3 years out, and you have then a fluctuation and indexes running, and they are in some kind of a financial structure. That is a challenge, I can say that. Can it be solved? I'm sure, but this is where we need to play the full toolbox. Is it solved fully now? No. It's not a totally efficient market either.
Yeah. We have a question again from Kristian, from SEB.
Yes. Thank you. Tommy, on one of your slides, you show six bullets with mitigations on the cost inflation. I mean, some of it like hedges and steel you have done for a long time, while the Maersk agreement is new. Can you maybe be a bit more specific and highlight some of the new initiatives which should have the potentially biggest financial impact that you've taken as a consequence of the recent inflation?
Yeah. I think, when you come from 6-7 years where you had steady raw material price and maybe fluctuating 2%-3%, but now we look on a much broader scale than just steel. We look into copper, aluminum, et cetera, where we have a substantial use, and that's what I try to say, that we're using all the toolbox, all the tools we have in the box, and we probably have to combine even more than what we've ever seen before. We're talking to resin, as I talked to before, and that's why I say we have to go upstream to see what we can do, and also to handle that.
We have a question on the chat for you, Anders Nielsen. Whether you in some shape or form can quantify some of the benefits we can realize from modularity.
This is a question you often get, but I will not go into cost predictions, right? That's the first thing. The benefits that we will get is we will get faster to market. I mean, the development time goes down because we don't have to do full development of the full product. We can develop subsystems, and we can deploy them faster. Time to market, we see a significant opportunity. I will also say that on the CapEx, reuse, meaning that we don't need to do everything new again, of course the CapEx efficiency will be better. We look into blades, we have the opportunity to make them more scalable. That will also give us both time to market and also better capitalization or CapEx usage. I'm sorry, I won't go into the quantification of it.
Thanks. There is also a question here on the chat for you, Tommy, in relation to the extraordinary cost impacts for this year. How do you see that evolving into next year?
2022 will be difficult, just to put it bluntly. There are still disruptions as Omicron came three weeks ago, and we still see disruptions. 400 vessels still in front of L.A. port. That's gonna continue to 2022, and we have to manage that and try to mitigate whatever we can mitigate. I foresee still there will be challenges going also into 2022 for sure, and throughout 2022, because we have to remember when we produce, there's a time lag until the turbine get installed, so that will haunt us at least far into 2022.
Thanks. With that, if Julia, you're ready, then I could see Frank had a question.
Thanks. I have a question for probably both of you. How do you coordinate your decisions on operational risk management to make sure? How do you do that with sales to make sure you don't commit to something that gets you outside your risk limits? How often do you review that when the world changes and a one standard deviation event changes by definition every, you know, every few weeks?
We basically do it every week because we have a portfolio that we work on around 400 or 500 projects. Of course, you can't flip all projects, but you need to be able to mitigate and also work. We have a logistic function that sits in the middle between Javier and me. We actually have a dual report line both to Javier and me. It's very, very important that we are also reflecting because it's not just on our supply end, it's also on the customer end that gets delayed. They can't get his substation in, he can't get grid.
We wanna supply in the most efficient way, and we basically don't want to utilize the vessel going to Brazil if we can't get the op there anyhow, then we'd rather utilize to go into U.S. or whatever it might be. That's a constant coordination and, probably a bit Wild West, for some time. I would say that we're being good at it, but it's not efficient fully due to the disruption from outside.
Moves also into the collaboration. As we see more structural problems, we also look into opportunity to design our way out of those problems using other materials, other solutions to actually get us out of it. I think we've been pretty successful in actually avoiding that. We've been able to keep the volumes in a good way. I mean, in spite of semiconductor shortages and so on, we've actually been able to keep ourselves running.
That can only come by if you're really working close together and having the teams together and constantly be alert. We are constantly monitoring, especially on the semiconductor market. We have not had any disruption this year. But we're looking into something next year, which then we need to find a solution about, and which we do together.
Thank you, Anders. Thank you, Tommy. That concludes the Q&A session here. We will continue presentations 3:20 P.M.
Allow me to bid a warm welcome back to the next session. It's around 3:20, at least in Copenhagen. Thank you very much. As we start this next session, we will start with service, and then we'll talk about the financial position, and then have a Q&A. My name is Christian Venderby. I head up the service business unit for Vestas. I started with the company in 2006, and spent the majority of that time in the U.S. business unit. But since 2014, I've been in my current position here running service. We will go through a bit of a background fact sheet, talk a bit about the market from a service perspective, and then I would like to move on to talk about how we capture growth and continue our profitability journey.
A bit of facts. As we heard in the morning as well, we have 124 GW approximately under service agreements, and these are all long-term service agreements, part of our backlog. We have around 10,000 sort of customer-facing service technicians worldwide in around 77 countries. On top of that, we have engineering functions, supply chain functions, and sales functions. Altogether, we have more than 11,000 people working for the service business. We have also built a healthy backlog of EUR 28 billion, and that's obviously the future contractually secured revenue. That covers around 51,000 turbines. As some of you might know, the average length of our backlog duration is just over 10 years in terms of contracts.
Talking about the volume and the size and our footprint, the 124 GW obviously has 6 GW in the offshore business. A fact that I wanted to highlight here is that when we look at other OEMs, we probably add two or three times as much on the service on an annual basis as the next player, and eight to 10 times what we see from the largest asset owners in the wind business. This is obviously important because it talks to the volume growth, and it talks to the scale potential we have as we move ahead with our service business. Looking at the market very briefly, I think this is probably known facts, but let me just go through it one more time.
We expect here over the next 10 years, roughly towards 2030, that the service market can grow to approximately $40 billion. That means an annual growth rate of around 7%. Much higher growth rate in the offshore, obviously, with around 15%, and that leaves the onshore with 4%-5%. What is also worthwhile highlighting here, I believe, is that when you look at the absolute value add per year, the offshore service segment actually adds as much as the onshore service segment. That this is of course something we are keenly following. I'll get back to this here a little later, how we position ourselves to work with the offshore service business. Another element in the market dynamics is obviously that turbines get older, no surprise there.
Over the next four to five years , we actually see almost a doubling of the share of turbines more than 13 years old in the distribution in the installed base. Close to every one in four turbines will actually be more than 13 years. It matters because these turbines needs good care, maintenance, service agreements. They are also probably more relevant for repowering, which is another activity that we see grow in our service business. Then finally, obviously, as we have heard from Anders here today, our turbines do get bigger. And it also means that measured on a megawatt basis, the O&M prices come down, but we continue to see growing in the installed base.
Obviously, that market dynamic does not, let's say, dampen the growth potential as such, which is still in the numbers here. When we look forward for the Vestas service business, I would just like to emphasize that it is a very robust foundation for continuous stable sort of profit for the company. We continue to deliver operational excellence to our customers, and we are focusing on digitalization to really capture our scale advantages. I'll go through a couple of examples here in a second. We have talked about LEAP. Henrik mentioned that this is really our operational model for the global service business. It's not so much a, let's say, software deployment, even though we're very happy to partner up with, in this case, salesforce.com.
What it does is that we are now streamlining and linking a global footprint, a global operating model for the entire service business. This has been ongoing for a couple of years, and we have seen really good, let's say, efficiency gains out of it. In some cases, more than two-digit % in our cost base. What we're going to do in 2022, there's gonna be a very, let's say, busy year for the service business as well, is that we're gonna roll out the downstream activities, which means that our service operations, the planning, the scheduling, the supply chain, and how we actually deploy our service technicians will be managed in a new system. We're optimizing these processes, and with that, we are systemizing it as well going forward.
This is obviously a critical component for our future, cost out and scale advantages across the world. We also continue to harvest the advantages that comes from having energy analytics and let's say machine learning. Here we are deploying now at a much, much, let's say, a bigger pace or faster pace rather. We are deploying these algorithms that help us move from unplanned task handling to planned task handling in the field. This is obviously a major advantage as you run more than 51,000 turbines worldwide. Here we have, on our digital software platforms, we basically have three value drivers. The first one, as I just mentioned, is it helps our operational excellence. It helps us understand how to predict potential failures and address it before it becomes even more expensive.
It also supports how we continue to enhance our value proposition and add our to our service solutions. Of course, we talk about AOM 1000 to 5000 offerings, but the full scope offerings and the long duration makes up about 80% of our future or our existing business and future business with our customers. Of course, as we continue to be more advanced in this, we can then adjust the risk share with our customers, and this is another key value driver we see from the digital platform. Then finally, in terms of numbers, not big yet, it is also software as a service, and we do provide digital solutions to around 30 GW of installed turbines worldwide, that comes from our Utopus platform, and that continues to grow obviously with time.
We have also looked into new software solutions, and we launched Covento earlier this year. We are looking at how we can actually simplify the aftermarket for the renewable energy sector. It's complex. If we look at how we actually source and procure ourselves, and we look at how our customers go through the same, it is here where we can actually start adding some new solutions to the market. It is not yet a big revenue stream, but the business model that we will roll out here connects this B2B. We don't have to fulfill the orders ourselves. We don't have to put all these different components and parts on the shelves. Of course, we have many already that we sell through our Shop.Vestas.
This is the opportunity to remove complexity and ensure that the sellers and the buyers can actually connect on our platform, and then the value we provide is transparency and easy access to search for these different components. We obviously will start in a few markets. We will obviously start within wind. If the potential continues to rise, and right now we see a market that is around EUR 2 billion worldwide, if that continues to be there, and we believe so, we will expand this potentially. Right now we're very excited about launching this platform to the market. We also sort of in the more, let's say in the physical world, we also see the advantages of robotics. We see advantages of using drones and other tools in that sense.
Of course, this is something the industry has been working on, but it is still a very good illustration of how fairly small investments with partners can help drive cost out and efficiencies in the aftermarket, in the service business. What we bring here is drone inspections. We are doing more than 25,000 turbines, and a lot of this is on the blades, obviously. The real value comes from the insight we gain from the intelligence of analyzing the data we capture. This is obviously used both to understand the turbine performance, but also when and how we would want to upgrade or repair parts or blades in this case. Something which we haven't really talked much about yet, but we call it blade robots here. It's actually right now almost ready for commercialization.
It's a tool, it's a robot that we can attach to the blade, and then we can do minor repairs or cosmetic upgrades that would help ensure that the life and the performance of the blades is actually supported through a fairly inexpensive repair methodology, and especially compared to the time we spent if we don't have a robot like this. This is just examples of how we continue to drive also in the field new tools into play, so we can support our customers differently while we also reduce the cost base for it. I mentioned offshore before, and in the service business, we actually have more than 20, close to 25 years of experience.
We have installed about 5 GW, and of course we have been part of the operations and maintenance activities in that space. We have the ambition to be the leader in offshore service by 2025, so in about five years' time. What we bring to the market here is obviously a very large onshore business, by far the largest. We will leverage that infrastructure, we will leverage our engineering, our supply chain, and our training for technicians, and of course our digital tools, and bring this to the market.
The offshore service has been fairly and is fairly fragmented with a few asset owners, but it's pretty clear that over time with the growth, and close to around 30 GW is the expectation over time, that it does make sense in our minds to actually work with partners and also, here Vestas will play a very, very important role to drive, let's say a different value proposition for our customers and the asset owners in the offshore service business. With that, I mentioned we stand on a very strong foundation. Of course, it's very difficult to look into the next 10 years, also in the service business with a large backlog for EUR 28 billion. But we do see a path to doubling the current EBIT for the service business towards 2030.
In other words, it will become, in rough numbers, EUR 1.1 billion of EBIT in 2030. This is linked to the activities I just mentioned, so we expect to see better than market growth in the core business. We also expect, of course, to continue to see efficiency gains and cost out opportunities and optimization in our core business. We will go after the offshore opportunities that has a higher growth rate. Obviously from a service perspective, this kicks in towards the end of the period here for good reasons because the installations happen in 2025 and beyond. We will then capture a good chunk of our service growth in offshore from then.
Lastly, smaller numbers obviously and a low starting point, but with a high growth rate we will see our new revenue streams kick off and that will also start to, let's say, present itself as further EBIT support as we move in towards the end of the period here. I think in summary, the service business continues to be a very robust foundation for stable and predictable both growth and earnings for the company. We are focused on delivering operational excellence to the market, and we do that more and more through our digital capabilities and therefore supporting, let's say, the scale advantages that we can bring to the market here.
With the growth of new installations and with, let's say, the renewal rate that we see with our customers, this is sort of what makes us communicate here that we can double the EBIT level over the next nine to 10 years. With that, over to you, Marika, and we will take questions here in a second.
Thank you, Christian. I'll do my regular cleanup. Good afternoon, everyone. I have the pleasure of being the last one on the agenda. I also think and hope that my colleagues what they have described to you throughout the day gives you a good feeling of that we have a consistency in the way we work, the focus that we have, because I think what you can see despite the circumstances in the market right now, we're continuing our focus and continuing delivering. Having said that, I will talk a little bit about the financial situation, which I don't think anyone is unaware of at this point in time, or at least I hope that you're not.
Talk about the ambitions and what is the path to actually reach the ambitions, which we've had for quite a long time at this point in time. Talk about the sustainability and our ability to actually invest in sustainability thanks to the strong balance sheet that we have. What is financial stability? We talk a lot about the EBIT of the company, and I think we have not reached our own expectations, neither your expectations, but we have a very strong balance sheet that we don't talk that much about. I heard a few years ago a lot of comments around we were too conservative, we were too prudent. I think the prudence we have served us quite well.
You heard Henrik talk about the longer term, or at this point probably medium, long term ambitions, which we have for the first time put a year to. They are still, I would say pretty ambitious, still very valid. What is it that will bring us to these targets at this point in time? You heard Anders talk about the technology, where we are, and the strong market presence, in the onshore space. We also acquired the offshore, as you're fully aware of, which gives us a big potential. I don't think anyone is unaware of that. Also the leverage that we have overall for the company in terms of how we run, how we operate, which we will also talk more about.
All of the foundations is obviously what brings us to the targets that we have on the medium longer term. We have, as you heard Tommy talk about also, the BOSS, we have extraordinary cost impact. I don't think anyone have been ignorant to that. I always said that every year there is something new in Vestas and unfortunately I have been right. It seems like from here to eternity but it's been ongoing for quite some time. We had the auction which we went in all the whole market obviously went into.
We had the tariffs, we had the growth pains, as I would like to call them, for at least a couple of years, then we had the nice COVID situation, and now we have all-time high cost throughout. I think everyone here is also aware of whether there will be shortages. I think that could very well be expected going forward. I remember Claus, you said, "Are you on a good path to actually reach the 10%?" I think if I extract everything that is extraordinary, then we can debate what is extraordinary. I think you see on my pie chart here, it's a lot of extraordinary.
The logistics part, transport, is a killer right now. I think that's probably the part of any business that is doing terrifically well at this point. You also know that we had provisions that were higher than what we normally are, and then you have the extras, which is obviously the COVID situation, and not to forget the raw material. If I look at it, we've been debating steel from here to eternity as well. If I look at the resin part now, carbon, yes, definitely, but resin is a significant impact for Vestas, and I would say our industry.
Fixed cost is the part that we control very well, and due to the situation, although record high volumes in 2020, we managed to keep the fixed cost to at a very low level, for obvious reasons, as well as no one could travel or pretty much do anything at that point in time. We will continue to be very cautious on the fixed capacity cost, as we have been, and should be. It's very easy now to get a little bit excited about the offshore, everything new that's happening, for us, and also continue to leverage on the operating model we have. We are actually swapping cost where we see that business is happening.
This is one thing that we have done very well, continue to do well, and is a good stability for us, apart from the service business, Christian. We definitely invest to capture synergies. Coming back again to the strong balance sheet that we have, we have cash, that's a great enabler, that is also the future for the company, despite the situation right now. We will continue to invest in the offshore space, so the 50 MW is an obvious one. Is it free of charge? By no means, and I think you see that on the level of CapEx that we have. Obviously, after we have developed the product, you will also have, or we will have to invest in capacity. It's also a super interesting space to be in.
The growth is fantastic, and it continues to balance the company. Net working capital is one thing that we also have been discussing. In 2019 and 2020, we have, to a very large extent, utilized the balance sheet simply because it's strong, so we have had a lot of inventory. I don't think that's any surprise to this group of people. You've seen it. You heard us talk about it. We also see the inventory management as a great enabler to do something similar to what we did in 2013, i.e. get the working capital even more efficient than what we have today. This will depend on demand in markets, for obvious reasons. It will also depend on what Tommy talked about, the industrial footprint.
I think with everything that's happening in the world today, with the transport and everything, I think what we have done on a continuous basis, that is revisit where we are situated, where our suppliers are situated, will continue and probably be swifter than what you have seen. You will also see more and more localization, I think, not the least within the offshore space, but I think we, it will come across the board. What are the drivers to long-term EBIT? Again, you heard Henrik say at the beginning, we will not give you the numbers, but we will give you the path. What you see here is that we don't think a 10% EBIT is unlikely. We have put a timeframe to it. Our ambition now is 2025.
You also see the size of the bubbles is obviously representing the importance of them, and there are a few obvious ones. At the end, you see the technology driver getting actually paid for it. The cost side will be reduced. Will it be reduced within the near future? I don't think so, because we see inflation is in the economies as we speak. You will also see a big contribution from the stability factor that Christian talked about, i.e. the service part. You also see the contribution from offshore as well as onshore from a volume perspective. Quality will also be a very important factor, as you asked about earlier, Claus. I hope also my two colleagues gave you an answer, and it very much correlates to what we have said before.
Vestas Ventures is another part that is extremely important for us. We've said that should we buy another big OEM or been asked at least, what we have been focusing on buying technologies serves us well, very well in within this field. I think a lot of you have heard me say also that a lot of the cost reduction will actually come from installation, not the least within the offshore space, but also onshore. Offshore is probably the given one because you have two-thirds of the cost relates to installations, so you have to develop, Anders, for installation as well. Here you see some of the things that we have been doing, and it's wooden towers. I've actually asked Matthias, are we sure they will not be part of any fire?
Obviously, that is secure, just to say that. We will have the first one up in or at the end of next year. It's gonna be super exciting, and it's also the modular part coming back to transportation and cost for transportation. You also see the Salamander, which is the lift. You can get up to 200 meters. Me and Anders have been part of looking at this. This is a Swedish invention. It's gonna be very, very interesting. Speed is of essence. I think everyone knows that here, and this is a great enabler for us. Again, coming back to the strong balance sheet, does it serve us? Definitely. Key takeaways is what everyone have told you. It is a super challenging environment as we speak, and it's almost changing on a daily basis.
Do we quite well in managing the situation? We do. You see the focus, you see we're not forgetting about the future, but we definitely trying to preserve the now. Financial strength is obviously a great enabler that I've spoken to you about, and Christian knows we have done some acquisition also in that field. You now hear us say that a 10% EBIT with what we see right now should be likely in 2025. It's less blurry. We don't give you the full bridge, Claus, but it gives you a good flavor of what we're aiming for. By that, I guess we're into Q&A.
We are. Thanks, Marika. If I can ask you to go here. Once again, let's take a couple of questions here from the audience. We'll start with Mark.
Hi. Mark Freshney from Credit Suisse. A question for Christian. Just regarding your services has a massive scope of stuff that you do, right? You know, the most valuable products are the ones that the availability guarantees, is my understanding. Some of the growing bit is working with clients, putting retroactive upgrades onto the machines where clients have been quite reluctant to take those. There's other parts where, you know, multi-brand servicing, which can be quite competitive. Can you give us an idea of the margin breakdown or spread within those activities and where you think the biggest opportunities are for growth within the growth, if you like, and which are the slower growing parts?
Yeah. There's no secret that when it comes to the service, you're right, it's fairly complex. It's not for anyone to do. There are the basic services, the more preventative. I think many can do that, and that's also probably where the margins are the less attractive. When we then move up in terms of the advanced solutions, and we provide the availability guarantees, this is the product that actually sort of is what we sell more than 80% of, and this is also where the margin is much more attractive. If you then break that further down, obviously, if we go to the older turbines, and we start the repowering activities, that's a very attractive segment as well for us to be in. I think that's probably how to put it.
We continue to see a good demand for our long duration contracts and the full scope contracts, so that's also where we will see the growth, when we talk about sort of the solutions, at least from a, let's say, from a near-term EBIT perspective. Then, as I said before, on the longer term, we will see new revenue streams come into play that is probably more in the space of digital solutions, with higher margins obviously.
Any further questions here from the room? We have Claus.
This is Claus Almer from Nordea. To you, Marika, one of the question asked early on about the revenue trend for the coming years, and I know you don't give guidance for 2022 and beyond. In the past at least, you have given some, you know, indications about the direction of the revenue. Coming back to the overall market trend going down maybe for the next couple of years, do you see also revenue from Vestas onshore going down, or will you repeat past message that it's not going to decline?
No, I would say that if you look at the overall, I would say, demand and picture of the renewable industry, it's hard to see that it will go down onshore. Also, if you look at the U.S., which we have spoken about quite a bit, and you see the likely 10-year extension, you also see the targets from different countries when it comes to wind. You also see the demand now or installations probably is the right wording, in Germany starting to pick up. And is it at the same level that we have seen before? Absolutely not. So from my perspective, we also had a very interesting discussion at the beginning of this week, and actually a Swedish company, big one, and they say, "We're totally independent. We have wind supporting us." So really merchant.
Obviously, with the onshore and offshore supply and demand and the cost side as we speak right now, anyone that can be independent is in a very advantageous position. Obviously, Javier has a great job ahead of him, capturing that opportunity as well.
Okay. Just a follow-up, but you know, the 10% EBIT margin, two things to that. First of all, is that depending on your Ventures business and the CIP investment? Secondly, why didn't you choose to break out some of these external headwinds that you have been facing this year and last year?
I mean, from a number perspective, I think we've been as specific as we would like to be from a cost perspective. I think when you talk about CIP specifically, I think you saw the buckets that will be the biggest contribution to a 10%. Obviously, there you saw offshore, onshore, you saw the quality, you saw the cost side, you saw the technology. So that should give you and not the least the service side. Sorry, Christian. That is really sort of the base foundation. That's also why I started sort of this presentation by saying, you see what the colleagues are doing, and obviously they are not doing this on their own. They have a lot of team members with them.
It also shows that what we do now, we are investing in exactly getting to the point where we want to be. Do we control everything, external? Absolutely not. We're trying to be less vulnerable as we speak.
Is there any further questions from the room for now at least? No? Let's go over to the virtual option. I think we have Deepa from Bernstein with us.
Sorry. I hope you can hear me. Yeah.
Yes.
I had two questions for this session and then one follow-up from the previous, so I hope I can ask that. Firstly, just on services, wanted to ask Christian, what is the risk that you see from many of your customers moving to self-service, particularly in offshore wind, where the customers are fairly sophisticated? How do you see that play out? Maybe it's not relevant by even 2030. In onshore, how do you see the situation, particularly as many of these customers have these big targets and so on?
Marika, a question for you on the 10%, obviously I'm not gonna ask you to break down the bridge, but if we were to sit here in four years' time and we're not quite at the 10%, where do you think, you know, the assumptions may have gone wrong? I think the third question I wanted was for Anders on the technology side is just the bet on obviously the gearbox technology for offshore, which helps you with cost and synergies, but I'm just wondering what is the feedback from customers who've been using your competitor's direct drive turbines and whether that do you see that as being a disadvantage technologically? Maybe you can explain to the laypeople who are not engineers on, you know, where are the disadvantages and advantages of that.
Okay. You start.
Yeah, I think we take Anders' answer when we get here also. On the insourcing or the offshore and onshore, I would say we haven't seen major shifts in the trends we have discussed over the years. We have many customers that actually have built capabilities to perform some of these service activities themselves who continue to work with Vestas as a long-term partner, and they do that for 15, 20, and 25 years. This is the balance we have found. Frankly, it is also supporting, of course, our value proposition, that we continue to both be competitive and we continue to provide the service quality that the customers are looking for over the life of the assets.
Now, when it comes to the offshore, I mean, I believe I mentioned that we have a different starting point. Obviously, the large asset owners, they have had to build their own capabilities. They have a presence. They run operations and maintenance. I believe that this will change over time, and it's probably not gonna change in the next two or three years dramatically. As we get, of course, a major presence offshore, it would make sense to look at how to set up service hubs that can provide activities across technologies and in different regions. This is probably where we'll see it play.
For me, it becomes that logical combination of, let's say, forces from the asset owners and from service providers and the OEMs, where we can sort of leverage the synergies together and bring it forward. Obviously, when it comes to the turbine technology. We will be in a very, very strong position to continue to support, let's say, the lifecycle optimization of those assets. I think this is the shift we expect to see in the offshore service market over the next 3-4 years.
If I start with the 10% margin question, obviously the less control from our side is the cost side. I would say if we're not at the 10% in 2025, it's more a cost on the cost side where we have anticipated wrongly. Obviously the journey is on, and we're planning to be, as I said, less vulnerable, and I think that is a very important part of getting to a 10% margin. I probably give the technical question to you, Anders.
Thank you. The question that there's been a very long position about direct drive or actually geared drive. We stand very strongly behind the choice of going with the gearbox. There were a couple of reasons for it. One of the bigger reasons is that we actually take as the turbines becomes bigger and bigger, you end up also having the tip speed increasing and increasing if you want to keep a certain rev in certain RPMs in the generator. If you can't gear that in any way, you keep increasing the speed way much, and that leads into erosion problems and other stuff. With the gearbox, you can gear it down, and that gives you a benefit in that perspective.
That's an offset on the service side, which is a gearbox takes service. On the other hand, you have less rare earth metals as well into a geared solution compared to a direct drive. With those main arguments, I would say we stay by absolutely sticking with a geared solution. We have no plans for a direct drive.
Thanks, Anders. Any questions here from the room? Mark? Sorry, Mark.
Hi. Marika, it's perhaps a little bit unfair because I ask you or I ask Henrik this question every single time, but, you know, I'll ask it to you now. It's clear that your machines bring a lot of benefits to clients, right? The power price that the clients get has gone up over the last year. That should more than offset the increased logistics costs and the other bits and pieces. Presumably at some stage, once the indigestion works through the market, there's a conversation to be had with clients to say, "Look, you know, we're gonna put up the price by more than the input costs. They need to go up so that we can recover our past investments and the benefits of our innovation." Right?
With the industry, as I think the slide earlier pointed to the big three or big four players having 89% market share, presumably as the industry leader, at some point, you need to have a conversation with the clients saying, "Look, you know, prices are going up steeply." Do you think that's possible? Is that kind of conversation something that's completely not within that bubble bridge that you put up?
Yeah, of course. When we talk about technology, we talk about the pricing and the pricing power. The pricing power within this industry is different. If you look at our average sales price compared to anyone else, we're obviously increasing. You don't see the levelized cost of energy reduction at all at this point in time. Having said that, I don't think it's only the customers. We're having the discussion with customers, trust me. I would say Henrik is probably on a daily basis having those, Javier is more than once a day. I mean, that is part of how we operate. It's skewed because you have a super high demand. It's not only up to the customers.
Maybe the customers have been offering too low of a price to any government, but it's the whole chain that needs to obviously have a reset. Will that come? That's part of the discussion. It's a very odd industry in the terms of pricing power and demand is not correlated because you have the time gap in between.
We have a question on the chat for you, Christian. In terms of the cost inflation that we're seeing, how is that impacting the service business?
The cost efficiency?
Cost inflation.
The cost inflation. Thank you. Of course, we're not immune to price increases on transport and the supply chain. That's for sure. It is a different cycle, and we are, of course, we have more predictability into what we need in the service business. So it also means that we can typically source with a sort of longer timeframe. But for sure, as cost prices go up, we will see that impact into, let's say, the service cost. The way we are structured commercially helps because our long-term service contracts are typically attached with an adjustment to inflation. This is where we have a way to share that risk with our customers over the life of the contract. Let's say, from a bottom-line perspective, the impact is very limited.
Thanks. Marika, a question for you on the chat as well. We have been hearing about the cost inflation also continuing into 2022. I know you've been getting this question a lot, but is there anything you can say in terms of margin developments going into next year?
I mean, it's clear, and I think it's clear to everyone, the cost pressure is continuing. We don't see the signs of ease. We actually saw a couple of months ago an ease off in the raw material that is bouncing back pretty quickly. Transport for sure. I think also land transport, if you look at it, the semiconductors is obviously impacting the truck industry, which means that it's inflation also in what you get paid for an old truck at this point in time. Don't expect cost pressure to ease off in 2022. I think that is a bit too premature.
Thanks, Marika. There is no more questions on the line, if I can just confirm that with. I think none on my side at least. Is there any more questions here from the room to Christian or Marika? Great. Then I'll actually invite the presenters up to the stage. We have a couple of closing remarks from Henrik, and then we'll do a short joint Q&A on the back of that. Okay.
Thank you, I will say also to the room here. I know today it's been particularly the circumstances about getting here in person. Also the latest number there was online is close to 600 people that are following this on an online basis, which also shows, first of all, the interest, but also a recognition of course, at, first of all, for where is the world and what's the world happening on the energy transition. I think for us, as you can hear throughout the day, there is an upside in this. There is an upside in the both the short, medium, and long term.
I think in the short term for us, it's very much about being out there influencing some of the early leads and also some of the things that goes on with the individual countries. You've seen that today. You heard it from Tommy and Anders also that our machines and solution have to be much more integrated and much easier to make flow around. I think that scalability, we're working damn hard in getting the scalability. Are we some of the ones that have probably done most training and most practice, both in a good sense of learned and in a hard sense of learned? You can hear that today.
From here, I think there was a couple of things that were said a number of times, think differently, work differently, but that also goes stick with the 80% that really works. I think here it's an invitation for a number of partners to actually be part of that scalability. Vestas, we can't do it alone, and that is something we have learned in the last couple of years in that sense. The other thing I hope, I really want you to take away today is also just the following. I think really have to thank a few of you. There's always some usual suspects. I'm not looking at anyone special, Mark. There is always in a room like this, it's a day where everyone gets their fair chance of getting questions and everything else.
It's actually cool because some of us see you regularly on a quarterly basis. Others up here, it's either the first time or potentially the first time get exposed to you. Really, thank you for that because it's nice from a team perspective to have this. I'm pretty sure we are leaning towards having that on the next Capital Markets Day as well. Tommy, you mentioned you were the COVID head from ExM, which also means, as you can see from the team here, we rely on one for all and all for one. Tommy did his COVID, and thanks for that, Tommy. It wasn't always easy, but it actually means that there is somebody that takes the decision on behalf of ExM.
When it came to the 19 of November, Christian, you didn't get much sleep. Christian was the one that headed up our cybersecurity, but it also just means on a team point of view on this ExM team, it is actually something where we think today we can operate both as individuals on behalf of the whole company, but also across. I think that's important for us to also give you that certainty that what we see up here is a whole bunch of experience. We can work as a team today, but we can also work and operate the company as individuals, which is an enormous strength when we also want to address the scalability, but also the quality, which has also been discussed. With that, on behalf of the team, just wants to say really warm thank you for coming.
For those of you who traveled in and spent that and going through all of that testing, Mark and others, I know how cumbersome that is. It's really much appreciated because that gives a day like this a completely different life to stand here and present to a proper audience. Thank you for that, guys.
Yes. Thanks. Let's open up for one last Q&A. If there's any questions that has been piling up during the day, now is the chance. If there is any from the room, we'll start there. It doesn't seem to be the case. Good job to the entire team here. I don't think we have anyone on the line either, so just a warm thanks for coming. Thanks for dialing in online as well. Before we end.
Just one little thing.
We just have one little thing.
One little thing. Because for somebody, this is the last Capital Markets Day. Could very well be the last Capital Markets Day ever until you sit in a board somewhere. It's only fair from us as a team, and I hope you will enjoy me in that, there will be plenty of opportunities to say also in beginning of March, a proper goodbye to you, Marika, from a Vestas point. Welcome to Hans Martin. Right now, we need to live without Marika, and we believe there is a life after Marika. As a team, Marika, I've known you now since you joined Vestas in 2013. It wasn't that fun, but it was tough. We know that because we spent a long time together in weekends.
I cannot, on behalf of ExM, on behalf of Vestas, hopefully on behalf of shareholders, thank you enough for the time you dedicated to Vestas. When you came in the current pricing, it would have equaled 5 DKK. So I think here is a recognition. This is the last time on a Capital Markets Day we can say thank you in front of everyone. We will then invite you to do a reception. You can come and say cheerio to Marika. But today, Marika, thank you. We will miss you. But there will also be the following in saying you held on in Denmark after your tax and all the other stopped after seven years. It is really a true pleasure, and it's just fantastic to be here.
I know there is a friendship with many of us that will last long after. Now you deserve to have time back in Stockholm with your dear husband, because I think he also wants to see a bit more of you. Thank you for that.
Hopefully.
Hang on. Here you go. We are probably the two most commonly tested. Here you are. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you very much. I just wanna say thank you. It's a lot of supporters here. Not only Vestas people, but also banks that supported us when we were actually on the verge of belly up. We have one sitting over there. So really grateful for that. All the people that have taken an interest in the company, it's been a pleasure. I will see you also on the back of the full year. I will not lose all the connection with Denmark, which I'm super happy. Some have actually said to me that I'm becoming semi-Danish, which I take as a compliment, although we have some Swedes as well. Yeah. It's been a pleasure, so thank you everyone.
See you in February, I assume, and hope that this crazy COVID situation has improved at least a little bit. I wish you all a merry Christmas, a happy new year, and all the best for 2022. Thank you.
That concludes the program for today. Thanks for dialing in, and there is a bit of a reception now.
Thank you, guys.
Thanks.
See you outside.