Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantinos, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Bank of Cyprus conference call to present and discuss the third quarter 2023 financial results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Panicos Nicolaou, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Nicolaou, you may now proceed.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our financial results conference call for the nine months ended September 2023. I am joined by Eliza Livadiotou, Executive Director of Finance, and Annita Pavlou, Manager, IR and ESG. After my introductory remarks, Eliza will go into more detail on our financial performance, and then we'll be very happy to take your questions, both during this conference call and afterwards.
I would like to start by briefly reminding you of our powerful equity story and our cost range on slide Number 4. We are the leading financial group across banking and other financial services in Cyprus, in a highly liquid and concentrated banking sector. Notwithstanding the unprecedented uncertainty prevailing in the wider macroeconomic outlook, the Cypriot economy remains strong and is growing at pace, proving once again resilient to external shocks.
We remain one of the most liquid banks in Europe, enjoying the benefits of higher rates. At the same time, we are undertaking drastic action to position ourselves against a more normalized rate environment in the years to come. Our diversified business model, our ongoing focus on cost discipline, and our robust capital position all lay the foundation for delivering shareholder value in the medium term.
Let's now turn to slide Number 5, which shows an overview of the macroeconomic environment. In an environment of weak European growth and geopolitical turmoil, the macroeconomic outlook as of Cyprus stands out. The economy expanded by 2.3% in the second quarter of 2023, outpacing the European average. Based on the latest projections of the Ministry of Finance, the economic growth is expected to be around 2.4% for 2023.
Tourist activity continued to recover, with arrivals for the first nine months of 2023 at approximately the same levels as of 2019, pre-COVID. Likewise, tourism receipts for January to August 2023 were 9% higher than the corresponding 2019 levels, indicating higher spending by tourists. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.9% in the second quarter and is expected to end the year at 6.4%. As in many other countries, consumer inflation continued to be impacted by energy prices. In Cyprus, inflation stood at 3.3% in October 2023, and is expected to average around 4% for the whole year. So slide number 6 provides evidence of the group's strong financial performance in the third quarter.
For the third consecutive quarter, the group achieved a ROE of over 20%, facilitated by strong NII, which continued to grow up 9% on the prior quarter. We generated a ROTE of 25.6% in the third quarter, feeding through the group's tangible book value, which increased by 22% on the prior year to 40.63 EUR per share. Let's now turn to slide Number 7, which summarizes how the key financial metrics are tracking against 2023 targets. Our key financial metrics of net interest income, efficiency, and asset quality are well ahead of the 2023 targets we set in our Investor Day in June this year. While cost of risk is towards the lower part of the wide range, 50-80 basis points.
All in all, we generated a ROE of 24.6% for the nine months of 2023. Capitalizing on this strong performance, we now expect to comfortably exceed our 2023 ROE target of over 17%, albeit expecting some rather modest decline in the fourth quarter from the current year to date level, reflecting mainly seasonality and the growing equity base as a result of strong profitability. Our net interest income remains strong for longer, and hence we now expect fourth quarter net interest income to be at similar levels to the third quarter on the back of high rates and a well-managed deposit pass-through. Reflecting stronger revenues, we expect that the cost-to-income ratio for 2023 will now be considerably below 40%, despite seasonally higher costs in the fourth quarter. In terms of asset quality, the targets are unchanged.
The NPE ratio is comfortably below 4%, with a cost of risk range of 50-80 basis points. We maintain a clear focus on delivering sustainable returns to our shareholders, and our dividend policy is reiterated. We are targeting a payout ratio between 30%-50% on adjusted recurring profitability, building progressively through the years. On Slide 8, I would like to provide an update on our digital initiatives and progress. Our aim is to lead the digital economy through our digital transformation program, improve efficiencies, and enhance digital sales through cross-selling and establish new revenue streams.
As part of our ambitious digital transformation program, we launched our innovative digital branch, QuickHub, that provides customers with direct access to products and services with a simple click. The results have been very positive, as you, as you can see on the slide, on the number of digitally onboarded clients, on the new lending via Quick Loans, in deposits, and digital insurance. I will now hand over to Eliza to take you through our financial results for the period in more detail.
Thank you, Panicos, and good morning from me, too. Let's start on Slide 10 with the financial highlights of the period. During the first nine months, we reported a profit after tax of EUR 349 million, versus a loss of EUR 19 million in the prior year, of which EUR 129 million was generated in the third quarter. This is up by 3% on the prior quarter, driven by strong revenues. NII reached EUR 572 million, an increase of 144% on the prior year, benefiting from higher rates and the well-managed deposit pass-through. We are proud of our diversified non-interest income, as it remains a significant contributor to our profitability, covering 90% of total operating expenses.
Our cost-to-income ratio further improved to 31% as a result of higher income, while our cost base remains under control, with savings partly offsetting inflationary pressures. Our cost of risk, at 58 basis points, remained within our 2023 target range. Our balance sheet is characterized by ample liquidity and robust asset quality. Over 1/3 of our assets are cash balances with central banks, benefiting significantly from higher rates, while our deposit base continues to grow. Our NPE ratios stood at 3.5%, and our coverage increased year-on-year to 77%. Focusing now on our robust capital position. As at 30th September, our regulatory CET1 and total capital ratios stood at 15.2% and 20.4%, respectively.
Including organic capital generation of around 125 basis points in 3Q, and after our dividend accrual, our CET1 and total capital ratios stood at 15.8 and 21.0, respectively. Finally, in October 2023, Moody's upgraded the bank's long-term deposit rating to investment grade for the first time in 12 years. This is a further validation of the group's transformation into a strong, diversified, well-capitalized, and sustainably profitable organization.
Slide 11, where we present the detailed income statement. I will not cover every line on the page, since I will be discussing the drivers of our profitability in the following slides. But I would like to highlight our strong earnings per share, which has grown consistently for four consecutive quarters. This is underpinning an improving tangible book value. Our earnings per share for the nine months stood at EUR 0.78 per share.
Let's now discuss the main drivers of NII on Slide 12. Our net interest margin improved by 20 basis points Q-on-Q to 3.63% from 3.43% in the previous quarter. The margin and the net interest income dynamic is explained by a number of factors. Firstly, the immediate repricing of liquid assets. During Q3, we benefited from an increase in the effective yield on liquids of 48 basis points to 3.46%. Secondly, the gradual repricing of the loan book. Over 95% of our loan book is based on variable rates, with around half of it linked to Euribor. 22% of the loan book is linked to the bank's base rate, which, as a reminder, is linked to the cost of deposits in the system. These loans are repricing, but more gradually in line with deposits.
The effective yield on the performing group book grew by 27 basis points to 5.47% in Q3. Thirdly, better-than-expected deposit trends and a well-managed deposit pass-through level, facilitated by the very liquid Cypriot banking system. This is evidenced by the evolution of our cost of deposits, which remained not low at 19 basis points, corresponding to a pass-through level of 15% on time and notice deposits in Q3, up from 12% in Q2. And lastly, our cost of wholesale funding increased by 77 basis points this quarter to 4.06. This followed the issuance of EUR 350 million Senior Preferred Notes in July, with a coupon rate of 7.375% or an annual interest expense of EUR 26 million.
On Slide 13, I want to give you some more details on the assumptions and sensitivities behind our net interest income expectations. The top table provides a summary of the conservative assumptions we set in June. Our deposit trends are currently tracking better than expected, and pass-through remains resiliently low. Given current ECB rates, we expect 4Q NII to be at similar levels to 3Q. To give some idea of sensitivity, each 1 percentage point increase in deposit pass-through lowers NII by approximately EUR 2 million per annum. Also, please note that the recent decision by the ECB to set the remuneration of minimum reserves to zero will have an impact of forgone NII of around EUR 8 million per annum at the current deposit rate of 4%. The bottom table provides an update on the group's sensitivity to rising rates.
We estimate that a further 60 basis points parallel increase in rates versus the forward curve as of September 2023 will add EUR 67 million to annualized NII. A 60 basis point parallel decline would reduce NII by an annualized amount of EUR 76 million, assuming, of course, other things being equal. While high rates are very positive for the group, we are starting to prepare for the period when rates start normalizing. We are undertaking proactive solutions in order to enhance the resilience of NII to future reduction in interest rates, locking in higher NII for longer.
These solutions include the increase of investment in fixed rate bonds with longer duration and higher credit quality, increasing our offering of fixed rate loans and loans linked to the bank base rate, which, as mentioned before, track deposit costs, and the initiation of reverse repo and derivative positions for the entering in receive fixed interest rate swaps. Let's now turn to Slide 14, where we discuss in more detail our liquid balance sheet composition.
As of September, cash balances with ECB amounted to EUR 9.6 billion, including EUR 2 billion of TLTRO funding, on which the group immediately benefits from the ECB deposit rate increases. Securities, including debt securities, treasury bills, and equity investment, amount to EUR 3.6 billion. The fixed income portfolio, which increased by 10% on the prior quarter, represents around 95% of our securities.
Careful expansion is expected to continue, subject to market conditions, of course. Net loans amount to EUR 9.9 billion, of which 9.7 is performing. Around 50% of the loan book is priced on EURIBOR, and 22% is linked to the bank base rate, which will benefit as deposit rates reprice over time. Customer deposits amount to EUR 19.3 billion. Our deposits are nearly double our loans, giving us one of the lowest loan-to-deposit ratios of any bank in Europe. Wholesale funding at EUR 1 billion as of September, following the issuance of EUR 350 million MREL eligible senior preferred notes in July 2023. On Slide 16, you can see that deposits remained broadly flat on the prior quarter, but increased by 3% year-on-year to EUR 19.3 billion.
We are encouraged that the shift in deposit mix towards time and notice deposits is progressing more slowly than we expected. In Q3, it was actually flat at 31% of the total. Furthermore, if you look at the breakdown of our EUR 19.3 billion deposit base, you can see on the bottom left chart that almost 90% of our deposits are with Cypriot residents. Slide 17 on new lending. In the first nine months of the year, we granted loans of EUR 1.6 billion, driven mainly by corporate demand. The gross performing book stood at EUR 9.9 billion and remained broadly flat, both Q-on-Q and year-on-year, as repayments continued to offset new lending.
It is expected that the current trend will continue into Q4, and therefore, the performing loan book is expected to remain broadly stable for the remainder of the year. Turning now to the fixed income portfolio on slide 18. As of September 30th, the fixed income portfolio amounted to EUR 3.5 billion, up by 54% on prior year, representing 14% of total assets net of TLTRO. The majority of the portfolio is measured at amortized cost and is held to maturity, hence no fair value gains or losses are recognized in the group's income statement or equity. The mark-to-market negative impact of this portfolio amounted to EUR 91 million as of September, equivalent to around 90 basis points of CET1. Slide 19 provides a summary of non-interest income.
On this slide, we would like to highlight the positive trends on net fee and commission income, attributed to higher net credit card commissions driven by higher volumes. Net insurance result was also ahead compared to prior year due to the healthy growth of new business. I would also like to remind you that the FX gains are volatile profit contributors. Now, moving to Slides 20 and 21, which focus on the performance of our insurance business in the first nine months of the year. The group's insurance companies are leading players in the life and general insurance business in Cyprus and have been providing a recurring and improving income, further diversifying the group's income stream.
Both life and general insurance performance are tracking well ahead of the targets we set in June 2023 at the Investor Update, with regular income growing by 14% year-on-year in life and gross written premiums growing by 10% year-on-year in general insurance. Overall, the insurance businesses remain a valuable revenue stream for the group, as net insurance results contribute 17% on the group's non-NII. Moving now to operating expenses on Slide 23. Our cost-to-income ratio of 30% was broadly flat on the prior quarter, driven by higher income. Our cost base remains under control, with savings coming from the efficiency actions we undertook in 2022, partly offsetting inflationary pressures.
On a quarterly basis, increase in total operating expenses of 5% is driven by an accrual of EUR 3 million with regards to the reward program announced in June 2023, that is to reward performing borrowers. Let's now move to Slide 25 and capital. This quarter, we underwent through some structural changes with regards to the way we present and measure capital. I will spend some time going through these changes thoroughly. To start with, on the dividend accrual, during the previous quarters, we were accruing at a 30% payout ratio, the bottom end of our dividend policy. Based on a better understanding of the E.U. directive, we are now accruing at a 50% payout ratio, the top end of our policy. Please do not read into this change, since management's intention remains as previously stated.
We intend to build dividends prudently and progressively towards a 30%-50% payout ratio, taking into consideration market conditions as well as the outcome of capital and liquidity planning. The final dividend decision will be taken by the board at year-end, in accordance with the regulatory process. Secondly, on Pillar II add-on. Following the group's decision to directly detach the Pillar II add-on, 33 basis points were deducted from CET1 capital in the third quarter. Therefore, it's expected that this component will be eliminated from the Pillar II capital requirements as of January 1, 2024. This can be seen in the chart on the upper right-hand side of the slide. Lastly, on the presentation of our regulatory or Basel III capital ratios.
Set out on the top left graph on the slide, these do not include the unaudited profits or dividend accrual in the third quarter. Our Q3 regulatory or Basel III capital ratios stood at 15.2% for CET1 and 20.4% for total capital as of September. Now, moving to the bottom left chart. As shown on the chart, we continue to enjoy strong organic capital buildup in the first quarter, with organic capital generation over 125 basis points, bringing the total to 345 basis points for the first nine months of the year. As a result, our CET1 ratio, including retained earnings, but before distribution, increased to 17.5%.
After a dividend accrual based on a 50% payout ratio, our CET1 and total capital ratios stand at 15.8 and 21.0, respectively. Our robust capital position, along with the strong organic capital generation, clearly demonstrates our commitment to deliver sustainable shareholder returns. Now, let me give you an update regarding the expected changes in our capital requirements. As of January 1, 2024, the minimum requirement for CET1 and total capital ratios will be set at 10.92% and 15.63%, respectively, reflecting the following changes: The phasing in of O-SII buffer of 37.5 basis points, and the countercyclical buffer to 50 basis points, and the elimination of Pillar II add-on, as mentioned earlier. Further details on capital requirements are also set out on slide 51. Now, moving to MREL on Slide 26.
As of September, our regulatory MREL ratio and LRE ratios stood at 24.1% and 11.0%, respectively. Including retained earnings, post-dividend accrual, our MREL ratio and LRE increased to 24.6% and 11.2% , respectively. I would like to update you on the MREL requirements. Following a draft notification from the SRB in November 2023, the MREL requirement is now set at 25.0% of RWAs, against 24.35% previously, and must be met by December 31, 2024, one year earlier than the previous decision. The shift of the compliance date one year earlier signifies the group's progress over the years in becoming a strong, well-capitalized, and sustainably profitable organization. We continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize the build-up of our MREL position. Moving now to Slide 27 and asset quality.
The NPE ratio reduced in the quarter to 3.5% or 0.8% on a net basis, and our NPE coverage stood at 77%. When including tangible collateral, NPEs are fully covered. During the third quarter, following a deep dive assessment on our portfolio, EUR 37 million of exposures were recognized as UTP, or unlikely to pay, relating to specific customers with idiosyncratic characteristics. These UTPs are not macro-related and continue to present no arrears adhering to their repayment schedule. With the conclusion of this assessment, we expect another similar UTP amount to be potentially recognized in Q4. Note that UTPs trigger an automatic classification to phase three, which subsequently generates a cost of risk charge. Our NPE ratio target remains unchanged. We expect the NPE ratio to end the year comfortably below 4%. Turning now to Slide 28 and cost of risk.
The third Q cost of risk increased to 76 basis points, corresponding to an amount of EUR 20 million of loan credit losses. This cost of risk included 43 basis points relating to the classification of UTPs, and 15 basis points management overlays on stage one and stage two loans to capture conservative assumption. The monitoring of asset quality and customer behavior is ongoing, and trends to date are encouraging. There are no material signs of changes in asset quality. Additionally, we incurred impairment and other provisions of EUR 8 million in the third quarter, relating to REMU stock properties on specific large illiquid assets. Moving now to REMU on Slide 29. REMU is our engine to manage the stock of properties acquired from defaulted borrowers. As you can see, REMU properties reduced to below EUR 1 billion as of September 2023.
With balance sheet de- risking is completed, the inflows are expected to remain at extremely low levels, and our focus will be on delivering sales. As a result, we remain confident that the overall REMU portfolio will halve to EUR 0.5 billion by the end of 2025, and we continue to sell on average, close to 90% of independently assessed open market value or 108% of book value. The prospects of the real estate market remain strong. Based on data by the Central Bank of Cyprus, published in October, property prices increased by 7.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, although it's important to note that these prices remain well below their 2010 peak level. Now back to Panicos for his closing remarks.
Thank you, Eliza. Moving now to slide Number 30, where we share again of how the bank will look like by 2025, when interest rates are expected to have normalized at a lower level than today, as presented to you during our Investor Day in June. Let's turn to Slide 31. We have delivered another quarter of strong profitability, recording a profit after tax of EUR 129 million in the third quarter, corresponding to a ROE of 25.6%.
We are pleased that our key financial metrics are tracking well ahead of our 2023 targets. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the bank's long-term deposit rating to investment grade for the first time in 12 years, confirming this new chapter of becoming a strong, diversified, well-capitalized, and sustainably profitable organization. We aim to give you an update on the 2024 financial targets with the publication of our full year results. This concludes our presentation. We will now open the floor for your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking a question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Eleni Ismailou with AXIA Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hello, and congratulations for this strong set of results. Just a couple of questions from my side. As we are entering this part of the interest rate cycle, where interest rates are starting to flatten and then drop, and you've, as you guided in your presentation, you start positioning your balance sheet accordingly. What are the biggest upside and downside risks to this outlook, and how should we think of asset quality in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Thank you, Eleni. On the NII, we expect, as we said, NII of the fourth quarter to be on similar levels with this quarter. There are some headwinds coming from the increased cost of wholesale funding, increased cost of deposits, where so far we have been achieving better than expected. But conservatively, we expect deposit cost to continue to gradually increase. And in addition, there is a lost NII coming from on the MRR. There are, of course, some tailwinds and bit more repricing on our variable linked loans. There will be also repricing on bank based rate linked loans, which act as a natural hedge. This loan portfolio, it's approximately one-fifth of the total book.
And, and last but not least, there are higher, we expect higher NII on our securities, both on volumes but also an uplift in yields as this, roll over, next year. So, I would say that putting all this together, we expect... I would say we expect, as we indicated in the Investor Update, a slightly lower NII in 2024 than the full year 2023, but at the highest starting point that what you have indicated, during the Investor Update.
On asset quality?
On asset quality, we don't, we have not experienced any, any signs of deterioration so far, so we are very happy of what we see in terms of the portfolio performance, both in terms of cash repayments and also in terms of any arrears. So economy is doing good, and unemployment is almost at very low levels, and we are very happy of what we see.
Of course. Yep, sorry, apologies.
Okay, Eliza?
I just wanted to also add on the hedging, I think, Lenny, you hinted at that. We are, I mean, the higher-for-longer rate environment is allowing us the luxury of time to be able to hedge for rate decline in the future. And as you said on the slide, there are a number of levers we are using, we started using towards that, and we will continue doing that into Q4 and next year. And they include tools like longer duration, lower credit risk bonds, fixed rate loans, the base rate loans that Panicos has mentioned, which reprice on the back of deposits and act as a natural hedge, as well as structural hedging derivative tools like reverse repo and receive fixed IRS.
Thank you very much. This is very clear, and again, congratulations for this very strong set of results.
The next question is from the line of James Hamilton with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for your time today. Couple from me. Firstly, and again, on the sort of measures you're taking to mitigate potentially future lower rates, I mean, we know that around 14% of your is in the bond portfolio. I was just so curious in terms of when you say you're expanding the durations there, what sort of quantity of duration expansion are you looking for?
And taken all together with these sort of reverse repos, offering fixed rate, rate loans, etc , etc , etc , I mean, how much of your, of, of your asset base do you think that you could eventually get to with some form of some form of interest rate hedging? And the second is on the growth outlook. I noticed you mentioned that, repayments are up and obviously credit quality is, very, very good, and the economy is strong. I was just wondering, what the outlook for sort of, Q4 is for, the loan book growth.
Thank you, James. So I'll start with the rates and the hedging. We are not yet guiding on how much of the asset book we can hedge, as this is work in progress and obviously also subject to market conditions. We will aim to give more visibility, because we've only just started this in the last few months. So we aim to give more visibility on our more specific tangible numbers on the back of full year results, when we will aim to revisit the guidance in our annual regular cycle. On the growth outlook, Panicos?
Yeah, I mean, it's true that the net loan growth in 2023 is lower than expected, mainly because the higher repayments. And, as we have guided in June, this is, we expect to be flat for the full year, James. We do expect recovery in 2024, and in our medium-term view, it's unchanged, given our market position and the strength of the Greek economy.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Corinne Cunningham with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions from me. First one is on MREL. Could you give us some idea of what you're thinking there in terms of... Obviously, there's more to do as the SREP requirements go up. I guess that firstly means there's more issuance to do, but also just in terms of what you think is a good management cushion to hold on top of all of that. And then secondly, on asset quality, I hear what you're saying about no signs of deterioration or arrears, but what specifically is behind the UTPs? Specifically interested because you mentioned there's more to come in Q4. Thank you.
Thank you, Corinne. So I'll start with MREL. We've always been or we've consistently been guiding towards another international issuance, sometime next year, of a similar size to the one we did before, maybe EUR 300 million or thereabout. And that's to comply with MREL dynamically, but also build a buffer of our requirements, so that we can, you know, operate from there in a refinancing mode from then on. I should also point out that on the slide, you will note that we got the draft MREL decision for the next year, effectively. Where the timeline for the transition period for compliance, or full compliance, has come forward by a year.
So we now need to comply by December 2024, and there are the FRBs rationalizing that decision on our stronger financial position, well-capitalized, sustainable profitability and so on. So we are comfortable to be able to comply with that. It was always our intention anyway, and in a way, it's a show of strength that the or a vote of confidence, if you like, on the bank, that the timeline has been accelerated.
Okay, on asset quality, Corinne, I will start with some facts. The first fact is that Q3 outflows of NPE are higher than inflows. You mentioned UTP. UTPs is, are client-specific as a result of a review that we carried, and this will conclude in the last quarter of this year. There is no indication of any deterioration of the portfolio, because of rates or because of the macros. So NP targets will remain unchanged, meaning less than 4% for this year and less than 6% for 2025, as we indicated in the guidance in June. And of course, cost of risk will be towards the lower part of our guidance in the wide range of the 50-80 basis points for the full year. So, I hope this answered your question.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Hugo Cruz with KBW. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the time. Do have a few questions. So, on asset quality, you know, the UTP and the stage two, you know, UTP has been going up a bit, but, you know, I imagine if these are performing and so on, at some point you have to move them back to performing and, you know, outside of NPL ratio. So you know, can you give some guidance there, on how long it could take for these UTPs to come out from the NPL ratio? And also on stage two, you have quite a bit of stage two there. Any guidance you could give on if this you know move into stage one? And then related to this, the cost of risk guidance, still quite a bit wide.
You know, can you give guidance for, you know, firmer number? What do you expect for the full year, 2023? And then finally, I hear you on the dividend payout, you wanna continue to be prudent and, and gradually grow to that 50%. But, you know, you've now created the numbers, so it's out of your CET1 ratio. Results have been better than I think anyone expected. So, you know, any room here to potentially accelerate that path towards 50% payout, and, and to, you know, with the Q4 results, let me know your thoughts on this. Thank you.
Okay, I will start with the cost of risk. I think I replied to Corinne, I said that we expect the cost of risk for the full year to be towards the lower end of this wide range of 50-80 basis points for the full year. So, this is for this question. On the UTPs, as we said, these are additional, it is additional credit, has nothing to do with the portfolio performance. But yes, this clientele usually is paying as their original payment schedule. And as this is the case, usually they actually pay sooner than current pace. So we do expect to resolve this within a year or so.
In terms of, before asking Stefanos to comment on the stage two, I would comment on the dividend payout ratio. And yes, we are prudent on this. I mean, what is most important for me is our strong organic capital generation, which unlocks many things, and facilitate the discussion with the regulators. I mean, we have generated 345 basis points in nine months versus the guidance we have of 200-250 basis points in June. So this is a fact, and this is very important, and this is strong. But as we previously communicated to the market, the capital allocation remains subject to ECB approval.
The dialogue with ECB on this is expected to take place in late 2023 and early 2024, in line with the annual reporting and supervisory cycle. We understand very well how important is, is this for our shareholders. We expect, as we said, to gradually go from to 30%-50%. Last year, we had 14%, so, but frankly, right now, I don't think that we can guide to any specific payout ratio, because I expect this to be discussed with the regulator towards the, the beginning of next year. Stefanos, on stage two?
Thank you very much. Indeed, on stage two, we do have EUR 1.6 billion for us in stage two. However, let me point out, as you can see on Slide 65, that we have EUR 456 million of performing forborne exposures, most of which they were classified as stage two during the period of COVID. And this relates to exposures in hotels, which are now performing well. And roughly 27% of those exposure are eligible to exit by the end of 2023. So, in addition to that, I will also add that the trend for stage two has been decreasing, as you can see from our slides.
Okay, thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. Once again, to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolaou for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you all for being with us today. As always, myself, Eliza, the team, we are very happy to take offline any questions, to provide specific details on the performance of the bank. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good day.