Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ageas conference call for the 2022 six months results. I am pleased to present Mr. Hans De Cuyper, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Christophe Boizard, Chief Financial Officer. For the first part of this call, let me remind you that all participants will remain on a listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question- and- answer session. Please also note that the conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand over to Mr. Hans De Cuyper and Mr. Christophe Boizard. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you all for dialing into this conference call and for being with us for the presentation of the six-month results of Ageas. I'm joined in the room by my colleagues of the executive committee, Christophe Boissard, CFO, Emmanuel Van Grimbergen, CRO, António Cano, Managing Director for Europe, and Filip Coremans, Managing Director, Asia. In a turbulent first half of the year, unsettled by the conflict in Ukraine, a global drop in stock markets, growing inflation, as well as severe windstorms in the first quarter, Ageas posted excellent results, with a net result excluding RPNI amounting to EUR 456 million. This reflects the very strong operating performance, especially in the second quarter, with operating KPIs excelling on all targets.
In Life, both the guaranteed and unit-linked operating margin stood at the top of our target, top end of our target range, respectively at 95 and 39 basis points, thanks to a high investment margin in guaranteed and increasing volumes in unit. In Non-Life, the combined ratio amounted to a strong 94.9%, despite a 5 percentage points impact from weather. This illustrates the excellent underlying performance in all business lines. In Asia, the results rebounded sharply in the second quarter, despite the continued negative impact from declining yields in China and additional negative net capital gains. When excluding these market impacts, the six months underlying results stood at a very strong level.
On the commercial front, Ageas continued a good commercial start to the year, with inflows increasing in both Life and Non-Life, benefiting in particular from a positive sales momentum in Belgium, as well as from a strong catch-up in China in the second quarter, with new business firmly up on high-value regular premiums. In terms of cash position, we have received since the start of the year a record amount of EUR 743 million dividends from our operating companies, which covered the holding costs and the EUR 495 million dividend paid to Ageas shareholders, as well as the share buyback concluded over the first half of the year. Our total liquid assets remain therefore at a high level of EUR 1.2 billion. Our investment portfolio decreased from EUR 82 billion-EUR 76 billion.
This is related to the revaluation of our bond portfolio in the context of higher interest rates. This is merely an accounting impact, given our matching principle, which leads us to hold bonds until maturity. On the assets that we actively trade, mostly our real estate and equity portfolios, we still benefit from a strong level of unrealized capital gains of respectively EUR 2 billion and EUR 700 million. Lastly, our solvency amounted to a high 221%, up by 24 percentage points over six months, thanks to our strong operational performance and rising interest rates. Given a strong operating performance over the first semester, we confirm our guidance for 2022 of EUR 1 billion net result, excluding the impact of RPN(i) and providing no significant further deterioration of the financial markets in the second half of the year.
Additionally, we have decided to strengthen our commitment in terms of dividend for the Impact 24 strategic cycle. At the time, we had indicated a progressive dividend for a cumulative amount of EUR 1.5 billion-EUR 1.8 billion. Today, we feel confident that we can commit to an average DPS growth of 6%-10% over Impact24, which would increase the lower limit to above EUR 1.65 billion. For the dividend relating to 2022, we intend to raise the DPS by 8%-9%, and we are happy to announce that an interim dividend of EUR 1.5 will already be paid by the end of October. Now, ladies and gentlemen, I will hand over to Christophe for details on the results.
Thank you, Hans, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As you can see on slide five, our net result for the first six months of 2022 amounted to EUR 563 million or EUR 456 million if you exclude the EUR 107 million positive contribution from the RPN(i). On Q2 alone, the result amounted to EUR 291 million, of which EUR 46 million coming from the revaluation of the RPN(i). As usual, I will give you more detail by segment. All the figures are on a year-to-date basis. In Belgium, slide six, we recorded a high result of EUR 245 million, significantly up compared to last year, with a very strong performance in both life and non-life, despite some adverse weather in the first quarter.
In life, our guaranteed operating margin amounted to 94 basis points, thanks to a strong investment result supported by capital gains. The unit-linked operating margin slightly exceeded the target range, reaching 41 basis points, supported by increased volumes. In non-life, despite a 7 percentage point impact from the February storm, the combined ratio stood at 94.6%. This demonstrate the excellent underlying performance in all business lines. On the commercial front, the strong sales momentum continued with inflows in both life and non-life increasing by 5%. In Europe now, on slide seven, the net result of EUR 95 million included a EUR 16 million negative impact from the application of the IAS 29 accounting rule related to hyperinflation in Turkey.
It is nevertheless worth noting that the business of our Turkish life operation, AgeSA, continued to perform well and positively contributed to the group results in the first half of the year. As a reminder, the net result realized in Europe also included a EUR 45 million capital gain coming from the sale of the commercial lines in the U.K. Excluding these two exceptional elements, the non-life result was down compared to last year. Indeed, the combined ratio increased to 97.7% due to claims frequency now back to a normal level in motor and to the February storm in the U.K., which had a 3 percentage point impact. As you know, the insurance market in the U.K. has been unsettled in the recent months by claims inflation. Our result was also impacted as inflation has been above the 10% foreseen in our reserves.
However, we are adapting our pricing to protect the profitability of our business lines, and we feel well-armed to face the current difficult market environment. In life, the performance was solid. The guaranteed margin, although below the extremely high level of last year due to the non-renewal of a large contract in the first quarter, amounted nevertheless to a strong 102 basis points, largely above our group target range. The unit-linked margin continued its steady improvement following the change in product mix and stood at 33 basis points. On a less positive note, life inflows were down as unit-linked sales slowed down in Portugal in a volatile equity market. By contrast, non-life inflows continued to enjoy a solid commercial performance, increasing by 3% or 22% at constant exchange rate. You can see here the effect of inflation in Turkey.
In Asia, slide eight, the six-month result, which amounted to EUR 161 million, suffered from EUR 48 million net capital losses, resulting mostly from the decline of the Chinese equity market year-to-date. Better equity market just before the quarter close helped limit this negative impact. Additionally, the continued adverse evolution of the discount rate curve in China impacted the net result by around EUR 100 million. When excluding these market impacts, the underlying result amounted to EUR 312 million compared to EUR 213 million last year with the same restatements. This high level, which illustrate the solid operating performance, also include non-recurring elements, in particular, favorable claims experience in the context of the Chinese lockdown that took place in the second quarter. Additionally, the strong growth in new business resulted in lower expense overruns. Lastly, the result benefited from a favorable exchange rate.
With all that, and for the full year, we maintain our guidance of an underlying result amounting to EUR 500 million. Inflows in Asia benefited from a good sales momentum in the second quarter. In China, new business was firmly up, driven by high-value regular premium, which fully compensated for the later than usual start of the new year opening campaigns in the first quarter. In non-life, inflows were strongly up across the board. The reinsurance segment, now shown on slide nine. The reinsurance segment was impacted through the quota share by the adverse weather in Belgium and the U.K. in the first quarter. This was mainly compensated in the traditional protection business by a favorable 2021 proportional result settlement.
As mentioned by Hans, our group Solvency II ratio, so I am on slide 11 now, increased to a high 221%, driven by a strong operational performance and increasing yields. I am happy to report that, as promised during our deep dive event on Asia in March, we are now providing the operational capital generation and free capital generation for the entire group, including all subsidiaries and JVs. You can see the details on slide 12. The operational capital generation, so the OCG of the group, amounted to EUR 884 million. The largest part, nearly EUR 600 million, came from the non-Solvency II scope entities. Non-Solvency II scope entities, you will understand that this is Asia mainly.
The materially higher OCG of our non-Solvency II scope entities as compared to their already strong underlying IFRS profit largely stems from the value contribution of new business, which is not captured under IFRS 4. This will translate into IFRS earnings over time. Important to note that the OCG of the non-Solvency II entities, of course, doesn't fully translate into free capital generation, given the increasing capital requirement driven by the growth of this business. During our deep dive session in March, I indicated the ratio of operational capital generation on market capitalization. On an annualized basis, this ratio over H1, the first six months, is around 22%. This also translates into a healthy return on total capital of around 10%, and 12% if you exclude the sub debt. Now let's go to the operational free capital generation.
So far we have discussed the capital, the operational capital generation. Now the free capital generation, the OFCG. The OFCG of the group amounted to a strong EUR 569 million, including EUR 452 million from the Solvency II scope and EUR 211 million from the non-Solvency II scope companies, while the general account consumed EUR 94 million. These numbers compare to the EUR 900 million we communicated for the group over full year 2021. These results were released during the IR session in March. The contribution of non-Solvency II scope entities is in line with the EUR 458 million generated over the full year 2022. The high level of free capital generation from the Solvency II scope aligns with the performance on the operating target and the increased value contribution of new business under the current yield environment.
This also includes some non-recurring element, mainly the sale of the commercial line in the U.K. already mentioned, and the evolution of the equity portfolio in Belgium. With this last comment, I have reached the end of my presentation. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the introduction, and we now open the call for questions. May I ask you to limit yourself to two questions. The Q&A session will then follow. If you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. That's zero one on your telephone keypad.
Our first question comes from David Barma from Exane BNP Paribas. Go ahead.
Thank you and good morning. My first question is on your new capital return policy. Am I [right that] the midpoint of your new DPS growth range basically puts you in the middle of the free cash flow targets of EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 2.1 billion that you gave at the CMD. How should we think about those two targets combined now and about any additional flexibility on top? That's my first question. Secondly, on Asia. A very strong result this quarter, but there seems to be a lot of moving parts and maybe non-recurring items. You mentioned the foreign exchange movements and favorable claims in the quarter. Can you help us understand the underlying resilience of the business in the second quarter, please?
Thank you.
Thank you, David. I'll take the first question, and then I hand over to Philip for your question on Asia. Let me remind you what we stated Impact24, and then there are the amounts that you just mentioned of free cash flow coming from the operating entities between EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 2.1 billion. We do not make any change on our ambition in that level. The range, I understand, is still relatively wide, but of course, we also live in very volatile times, and this is a three-year ambition. From that, we had announced that we would distribute EUR 1.5 billion-EUR 1.8 billion via dividend, and that the dividend would be progressive, not going down.
That's the part that we believe we can strengthen now if we take into account our solvency, our cash position, as well as our outlook on upstreaming. There, we position ourselves, I would say, in the higher end of the range, and we give guidance to 6%-10%, and you will see that actually for this year, well, for 2022, we expect it to be approximately 8% in the mid of that range. I think that is the guidance that you should also take into account. No immediate change in FCF. We do make a change in dividends, and we're also confident that FCF will be supported by the OFCG generated over the period, meaning that we're also confident on the sustainability of this FCF as well as DPS.
With that, I'll give it. Maybe one final element here is that you also make reference to exceptional. Exceptional always remain possible, so a share buyback can be considered if we have exceptional upstreaming or inflows at group level. But that has always been the case, and it will stay like that as well. Second question I give to Filip.
Yeah. Thank you so much. Yeah, the result of the second quarter of Asia was indeed exceptionally strong, and I would almost say three, four things came together, boosting it, first and foremost, and that is something that we see also continue. In July, we had very, very strong sales. On an APE basis, the new business across the region grew with around 17%, and even at constant FX, it was up 7%. Don't forget that in the first quarter, this was actually quite a meager number, because of the lack of the opening campaign in China. Real strong sales, predominantly in China, but not only China. We saw strong growth rates in all the emerging markets, actually, in new business.
That definitely helps the underlying result, and the figures we see coming in for the beginning of the third quarter continue to be strong. I don't put a question mark about commercial resilience. It's really good. Another effect that Christophe mentioned is related to claims, and that is indeed something we noted certainly over the last quarter in China. The claims experience was very good, and that is, I put a caveat behind it, because it can have to do with the logging of claims, which was slowed down because of the lockdowns to be confirmed. Thirdly, of course, FX, the euro has definitely weakened, and that helps obviously the result of the companies who are non-euro like the results in Yuan were strong.
If you ask me what is ahead for the rest of the year, a lot will depend obviously on the underlying, not so much, but on the total result. A lot will depend on the future evolution of equity markets and VIR. That's the caveat we always place. Underlying, I gave this guidance of EUR 500 beginning of the year. I would certainly keep that as the lower bound. Given the weaker euro, we see that move in the range EUR 500-EUR 550 rather.
Thank you. The next question is from Michele Ballatore from KBW. Please go ahead, sir.
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my question. I have two questions. The first question is about the P&C in Belgium, especially in relation to the household, to the property
Business segment, it was really strong. I mean, the combined Q2 was really strong, among the strongest probably in the past five years. I don't know if you can add maybe more color on that if there were, you know, one-offs or particularly favorable experience there. The second question is about the capital. I mean, considering the strong solvency, can you clarify a little. I mean, I know you said already about buybacks. I mean, but can you clarify a little bit more, I mean, if you decide to do share buybacks, I mean, when can we expect, you know, an announcement in that sense? I mean, what is the policy? Then one final small question.
Regarding the interim dividend, can you confirm this is a change in policy, you're gonna distribute an interim dividend from now on? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. I'll give the first question to António for Belgium.
Yes. Hello. Good morning. On Belgian P&C household and specifically, yeah, it was indeed a very decent quarter, very good quarter. Relatively benign weather. Also bear in mind that our household portfolio is indexed to the construction price index. Rates have been going up the last months, and we did not see a pickup in frequency. As I said, it's more on the favorable side. We're also able to control well the average claims costs as we have a lot of claims repair that we do ourselves. When we work with third parties, we tend to have longer term agreements. Inflation is not really kicked in in a major way. Yes, a very good quarter.
Benign weather, rate increases are going through, and inflation's kept in check.
Okay. Thank you, António. Well, I'll take the two other questions. Well, first of all, is this a change in policy? I would say not really, because last year we have announced that Impact24 was a sustainable growth story, yeah? And that the sustainable growth story would lead to improving rewards to our shareholders, reflected in the dividend commitment that we took. In that sense, what we implement now, I would say, is a continuation, an implementation of the strategy that we have announced last year. Is this the end of share buyback? Well, last year we have already said that it is not, I would say, on our KPI board anymore. It is not automatic, but it is also not excluded. Yeah? That is, I think, the story we repeat now.
When can we expect? Well, we don't have fixed criteria for that. It is not depending on a certain solvency ratio or a certain cash position. We have also said last year, this is a mix of growth opportunities, investment opportunities, strength of the balance sheet and the solvency, and then potential distribution to shareholders. The current confidence we have on our performance and free cash flow is reflected in the increasing dividend commitment that we take for the Impact24 cycle. We now also want to remind you that indeed we had a very long track record on share buyback, and that was supported by two elements, the strong underlying performance of the business all these years.
We had regular exceptionals coming in from, for instance, resolving financial and legal legacy in the history of the company. As you know, that second part, I think, has been concluded successfully. From that side, financial legacy, we should not, I would say, expect major exceptional inflows anymore. That also supports our view on the sustainable growth story. The interim, I would not state now that is a change of policy, but we feel that, with the current strong balance sheet as well as solvency, we are very confident to already distribute an interim dividend.
You will easily see that it is an increase compared to the full year dividend that we distributed a few months ago to the high end of the range that we give, which you can assume as an indication where we will land for 2022. Maybe a final comment, but I think maybe at a later time, Monique will also comment on it. Indeed, the solvency is strong, also mainly driven by rising interest rates. Be aware that interest rates have already come down to some extent since the end of June, and from the peak mid-June, we have approximately 1% in Belgium. We have shown very strong resilience in our solvency ratio. We are very confident on that one.
We have a significant increase this quarter. We will see how interest rates evolve for the rest of the year and what the potential impact is on Solvency, but we are very confident.
Okay. Thank you.
Yeah. The interim dividend, I think I have explained that.
Thank you.
Going forward, we will indeed pay an interim dividend. Well, we will decide on this, but normally, once we introduce an interim dividend, that will be the case.
You will pay an interim dividend from now on?
Well, I think as I said, of course you decide this year, one year.
Every year you decide. Okay.
Once we have introduced a dividend, which we do now, we can indeed assume that that will be the case.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Benoît Pétrarque from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everybody. Couple of questions on my side. The first one will be on distribution. The 6%-10% dividend growth, just wanted to understand it better. Is that a bit of a fine-tuning versus your original target or distribution, or does that reflect through underlying improvements of your business? I'm asking because I'm a bit surprised that you are, well, more positive on distribution at this stage of the cycle. We've seen versus a year ago quite some deteriorations across the board, also volatile markets. Is that a reflection of higher rates flowing into investment returns? What is the underlying reason, let's say, of this upgrade of your guidance?
On share buyback, yeah, I mean, it's very strong on capital, obviously. Do you see investment opportunities, say, for the coming 12 months? Do you have something in mind, maybe more concrete, plans there? So that's the first question. Second one was on Asia. To come back on the question around the non-recurring items, I understand the three moving parts, but could you provide a bit of a, kind of estimate of the impact? Is that a EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million range of non-recurring items in the second quarter? Could we get a bit of a quantification on those items? And then the third one will be on the U.K. results, which we don't have anymore.
Could you maybe give us kind of KPIs, combined ratios, maybe net profit for the U.K.? That would be extremely useful. And then in terms of claims inflation in Belgium, I think overall you are pretty relaxed. Do you see any risk that, you know, claims inflation will maybe intensify in the coming quarters? Or, do you think it will remain under control, as far as the Belgian ratio is concerned? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Benoit. If I understood you well, I think I heard five questions. So let me start with the first ones, which I take, and then I pass on to Philippe and António. Indeed, you could see it as a fine-tuning. Again, let me go back to June last year when we have announced Impact24. We have changed, actually, our KPIs on distribution to shareholders. That was driven by a sustainable growth strategy that we have presented, but also to make KPIs that we would say they are more IFRS 17 proof, we can use them over the full cycle. Of course, we are now one year later. That means that our level of confidence changes. As you can see, and I fully agree with you, we live in very volatile and uncertain times.
Both in the first quarter as well as in the second quarter, I think we have been able to deliver strong results. Meaning that if we look at our solvency, if we look at the cash position that we have been able to sustain quite well over these first six months of the year, and also how we see the business performing and to a big extent recovering in Asia, I agree with you, we have, I would say, a higher level of confidence on that FCF between EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 2.1 billion coming from the OpCos. Together with the current balance sheet, we are then, I think, also happy to announce that we can raise that commitment on the DPS. The DPS was, I repeat, EUR 1.5-EUR 1.8 and progressive.
We still stick to the range, but we say 6-10, actually meaning that we can now commit to a dividend that is at the upper end of that range, and I would say see it somewhere between EUR 1.65, EUR 1.7, and the EUR 1.8 range, that we have given. Second question is on share buyback. Well, as always, we see and we work on potential investment opportunities. That is not always M&A. We also, I think, have growth plans. You remember we have growth engines defined under Impact24, the world of digital platforms, the development of health, the development of protection, and the development of reinsurance.
That is one element of growth and also I would say organic investment opportunities that we have. On the M&A market, you know, with rising interest rates have, I would say, a little bit slower. I think M&A market is in a little bit a wait and see position. Our M&A policy that we have announced last year has not changed, with the first priority in everything that is related to in-market, consolidation and diversification, that is something that is staying on the road. Whether there are concrete files on the table, of course, you will understand that I cannot disclose anything to you, right now. You have seen that we have done one, our step up in India in the life company. That's one we have already announced.
Now I give for question three on Asia to Filip.
Yes. Thank you, Hans. Just to dot the i on what I said. If you look at the actual result year-to-date, we are at 161 result, and an underlying of 312, which includes a fair impact, as you noticed, of EUR 103 million and capital losses around 48. Now projecting the 312 underlying forward, we mentioned a few items which we say they are maybe non-recurring or maybe to be reconfirmed. That is the low claims that we experienced to be seen whether that is real or delayed. It was also the strong growth that we saw, particularly in China in Q2, which in further notice seems to continue in the beginning of this quarter.
We have obviously also the positive impact of FX. What I said is that, rather than doubling the 312, we started the year with a guidance of EUR 500. We see that rather go in the direction EUR 500-EUR 550 because of the FX impact and the strong underlying. To put a figure on it, around EUR 40 million, I would consider as, let's say maybe not necessarily recurring, could recur, but then we will be very happy, of which EUR 10 million FX. That would tally with that guidance.
Of course, on the VIR and equity market volatility components, we always have to place the caveat because you will have noticed that interest rates in China have come to the lower end of the range that we used for guidance. We see the impact close to EUR 200 million, also maybe a bit higher because of the weakness of the euro. EUR 222 million is not impossible.
Okay. Thank you, Filip. There was a question for U.K. and Belgium. The last two questions, António can take.
Yes. On U.K. indeed we do not provide the full detail anymore, so I will not be too specific on the numbers. You've seen some of our U.K. peers reporting. Inflation is an issue, particularly attritional inflation. We have been quite early in rising rates over the first six months of the year. You could say that we are in the 12%-15% increase compared to the same period of last year. I think we're a bit ahead of the pack. We have suffered therefore a bit in top line, but we think you need that kind of rate increases to cope with attritional inflation. Overall the results have been pretty good. We have strong releases also from previous years in the U.K.
I would say overall pretty satisfactory results. On Belgium, on the inflation, well, you would expect indeed some more inflation later in the year. Having said that, we continue also to adjust our prices. We believe that we will keep pace with any rising inflation with rate increases when we can do that. We are certainly for the second half of the year, pretty confident on Belgium. A more longer view on inflation, we'll see, there are some signals that things are leveling off a bit. As far as we can see for the rest of the year, we're pretty confident.
Thank you. The next question comes from Fulin Liang from Morgan Stanley.
Hi. Thank you. The first question is actually as a follow-up on the Belgium claim inflation. Actually I have the question on the other kind of side. What we heard from the other insurers that seems like the frequency benefits of like 10%-15% after COVID is going to stay. That means that as long as your claim inflation is lower than you know, or the severity kind of inflation is lower than 10%-15%, would that actually cause the deflation kind of pressure to your pricing in Belgium? That's my first question.
Secondly is, I guess related, sorry, related to that one, because you have a very good kind of combined ratio in Belgium. What is the sustainable level actually going forward? Secondly is on the buyback. I understand that buyback will become, as you said, ad hoc. But surely you wouldn't review this decision every quarter, right? What would be the frequency you're going to review this as ad hoc decision? Is it going to be every year or is it going to be end of 2024, your three-year kind of strategic period? Thank you.
Okay, Fulin. Thank you. Well, let me quickly take the second question first because I can be very short. Ad hoc is what it means, ad hoc. So as and when we feel there is an opportunity or and most of the time it will come with an exceptional event impacting positively our cash, our balance sheet, our solvency. But it is ad hoc, so if you do, will you do a regular check on this every quarter? No. That is not the plan. Then for Belgium, I'll give it to António.
Your comment on lower frequency compared to the pre-COVID period, I guess you refer specifically to motor. I'm not so sure if it's here to stay, this lower frequency. We do see increasing traffic. So yes, maybe the first six months were lower than the pre-COVID time. Not so sure if that will remain. So we think that you will continue to adjust prices as inflation goes up. That's very specifically for motor. On what the sustainable combined ratio is, well, you know what our target is. I think the 95%-96% range is a very sustainable combined ratio for Belgium. In fact, as you'll see, we're operating below that level.
You will always have a bit of fluctuation. For Belgium specifically, I think it's in the lower part of the combined operating ratio that's very feasible.
That's very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Farquhar Murray from Autonomous Research.
Morning, all. Apologies actually, I think Fulin's probably carried out most of the question I'm asking actually. Just to recap. In terms of what you're saying in terms of capital management from here, essentially you're saying, "Look, we've got a higher free cash flow target." Oh, sorry. The free cash flow target's unchanged. There's a higher dividend, but the baseline for a buyback is essentially zero going forward outside of kind of ad hoc events. Is that a fair understanding of where we are? Then just more generally, if I then take it that basically there's no kind of ongoing regular buyback exercise discussion, i.e. the kind of August event that we've had for several years now is kind of beyond us and ended. Is that a fair and complete understanding of where we are? Thanks.
Thank you. Well, my answer is 2x yes. Indeed what you said is we have more confidence on the statement we make, and we can put dividends in the high end of that range, huh? Confirming that confidence and showing it also to the investors with the interim dividend. Secondly, indeed, it will not be specifically in August that we will every year consider a share buyback. We probably will have to talk every year in August about an interim dividend potentially.
Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thanks.
The next question comes from Michael Huttner from Berenberg.
Thank you very much. I'm sorry if there are repeats. I didn't start with a call. Three questions. First one is on U.K. strategy, the second one is on reinsurance cash flow, and the last one is on total cash flow. U.K. strategy, you've been shrinking your business pretty much continuously since I started following. I think you sold the Tesco business, you sold the renewals to I think AXA in commercial lines. Now you folded the business into Europe. It's kind of almost disappeared for us. Does it mean that should you make a decision to sell the business, this would be less of an issue for you? The second is on reinsurance cash.
The EUR 743 million is the free cash or the cash upstreamed at the half year. Speaking to very wonderful IR, EUR 750 million could be the figure for full year. My understanding is the reinsurance cash is quarterly. Does that imply that you don't expect any profit from reinsurance in the second half? In terms of the total cash, I think you said the dividend guidance effectively lifted, but the free cash isn't. I'm just wondering, can you maybe reconcile those two? You're raising the dividend because you're more confident on the free cash without changing the number or because you're not doing buybacks, so that leaves you more cash for dividends.
The answer I hope for is, of course, that you think there'll be more cash to come upstreamed. Thank you.
Okay. First two questions are, I think, for Antonio. Yeah.
In the U.K., indeed, we have been reducing the top line over the years, but it's more about refocusing the business on what we believe are our core businesses where we are strong. If we look at that part of the business, it has actually been growing the last six months. Indeed, we sold the renewal book of our Commercial Lines, and a while back, indeed, we did the Tesco biz. We also stopped some.
Unprofitable schemes that we had in the past. That also explains why inflow has been coming down the last years. It's definitely our intention to grow the core business where we are active, and we're actually seeing that happening in the first six months of the year. On the reinsurance cash upstream, well, in fact, the reinsurance segment upstreams 100% of its net profit. If we publish the results on a quarter, then that quarterly result's cash has been upstreamed. It is as simple as that. It's 100% upstream of IFRS earnings.
Does it mean that I can put a higher number for the 743 because maybe the reinsurance should make EUR 15 million a quarter?
I did not really understand your question. You said a higher number?
Yes. EUR 743 is the cash upstream at the half year. If I assume that reinsurance can do EUR 15 million, EUR 15 a quarter, then I would end the year somewhere around EUR 770, EUR 780.
No. If you want. Yeah. Okay. So
Yeah.
Sorry. If I get your question right, Michael. The reinsurance business is upstreaming cash once a year.
Once a year.
Yeah.
Okay.
Once a year. Of course you have quarterly results, and once a year the cash is upstreamed. You know they have upstreamed, I think EUR 87. I don't have the number in front of me. Don't expect the next quarter additional cash coming out of reinsurance.
Okay.
It is treated like a norm, like a normal OpCo.
Okay.
Okay, Michael. CF, DPS. On FCF, again, we have a wide range, EUR 1.7-EUR 2.1, and we are one year in Impact24, but in very volatile circumstances, still very confident on this range. There is no need, I think, or opportunity, to change that range. We still have two years and a half to go, on delivering on this FCF. On the other hand, what you do see is that the balance sheet is strong, solvency is strong, M&A activity is at a lower level in the market. That's why of the upstreaming that we have identified, we are confident to share a bigger part of this over the cycle to the shareholders via a stronger commitment on DPS. That's how you should look at this.
Excellent. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Robin van den Broek from Mediobanca.
Yes. Good morning, everybody. I've got one question remaining, which is about the free cash flow generation scoping you've done this year. I think you've narrowed it more towards the non-Solvency II scope for NCPs, which showed a result of EUR 211 million net of required capital needs. Yet the cash in is still considerably lower than that of EUR 133 million. I think in your introductory remarks you also said that you have confidence that FCF will follow FCG. So on that side of the business, there's still a gap, and I was just wondering how quickly do you think that gap can be closed?
Maybe next to that, just a remark, I mean, it seems that you're shifting more capital return from buyback into dividends, which, I'm not sure it's a good signal to the market because, you know, buying your own stock means you're, you think your stock is cheap. So just wondering maybe a little bit of commentary around that. Thank you. Why move-
Okay.
away from buybacks to cash dividends? Thank you.
I'll give the first question to Christophe.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Hans. First, I would like to be really very precise on the wording and the definition. What you are indicating with the 211, that's the operational free capital generation and not the free cash flow. The free capital generation. Where does the difference come from with the result, and what is the outlook vis-à-vis the dividend? Here we have some kind of prospective view. In this equation of OFCG, operational free capital generation, you have a component coming from the new business and the value of new business. As I said in my speech, it will come over time. There is kind in the OFCG, you have some kind of forward-looking element. It is low, but it will be translated into IFRS results in the coming years.
This, at this stage could be translated into dividend. Please keep in mind that the payout ratio in Asia is quite different from the one we have in Europe. We are in a growing environment. Even if the OFCG takes into account growing capital, I would say that there are, and Filip Coremans, who knows the partner very well, some behaviors, and these ideas of distributing a lot is not really widespread within Asia. We are making a lot of progress. We can see the progress made in China because we are in the range 30%-35% in TPL, which can already be seen as very good. In some ways it stands out, Filip Coremans, when you, when we see. Before giving to Filip . OFCG gives some forward-looking view about the potential in dividend.
This should be recognized over IFRS results in the future. Then you have the board decision vis-à-vis the potential to distribute a certain amount. We have a lot of, I would say, cultural behavior reserve there, huh, Philippe?
I'll try to be maybe a bit more precise. It's first and foremost, Robin, we obviously know that the free capital generation now substantially seems to exceed the dividend that is actually upstream, and that gap is up to us to close over time, and we work on that. There are specific reasons why that will take more time. It's not a mechanical exercise because that region is very much still in development. In many of the countries, we're working on distribution, diversification and investments in building agency channels. This may require more capital in certain of the companies. That mandates to retain a little bit of flexibility there.
In Thailand, we have been extremely prudent last year with the declaration of dividend because of the negotiation on the new bancassurance agreement. Thailand has been impacted quite heavily by COVID, so there has been some restraint. We see that turn back to a more normal payout level looking forward. Malaysia, but also Taipei Re, the Hong Kong as well as the Malaysian regulator are looking at potential adaptations in the future of solvency regimes. It's normal that, I would say, there is a little bit of prudence in the remittance versus the generation. It's a growth region and there are more moving parts than in the stable European region. That's the main reason.
Of course, we will try to close that gap over time, and that will automatically lead to increased future dividend flows.
At least, with all this explanation, at least as from now with this new KPI, you have this consolidated view on operation and free capital generation, the Asian component, at least we have a reference, we have a view on the potential.
Doesn't that mean if you keep growth going, that value of a business will also always be part of your OFCG, which will always lead to a drag, I guess, between the two. Should we just assume there's a certain time lag between the two? Is that the best way of looking at it?
As long as you will have a strong growth, you will have an OFCG, which is well below the one of Europe, but
Robin, you're right.
Yeah, you're right. But it's, it may be a bit theoretical side thing that we take, but in capital there is present value and future profit in there. Yeah. Whereas cash remains that profit first has to be running through the PNL. So, a present value of capital items doesn't mean that the cash is available immediate. There is indeed always a time lag between the two.
Okay. The second
Your second question, well, thank you for your judgment, versus share buyback versus, dividend. I appreciate, of course, your view. We have, as I said, a sustainable, growth strategy. We believe, in the long run that is best rewarded with the proper evolution of dividend. You cannot, I think, in perpetuity, continue reducing your equity, with share buybacks. As you also know, in the world of Solvency II, in the world of IFRS and IFRS 17, a lot is linked to your equity and capital positions and leverage ratios, debt capacity, and so on. So, we believe for a recurring basis that a very solid and strong dividend policy, and here I want to stress that from our studies, we come as one of the best, DPS and dividend per share groups, in Europe.
I think that you should also take into account. On a structural recurring basis, I think share buyback is not the ideal way to reflect and reward our strategy. That being said, and I said it already before, if there are exceptional positive circumstances, it's also not excluded. That will be, as Fulin has asked us, on an ad hoc basis.
Okay. Thank you for that extra color.
Thank you. The last question comes from Fulin Liang from Morgan Stanley
Thank you, and sorry for a very, very quick follow-up question. So basically you suggested your full year dividend is going to be 8% growth over last year. Basically, that's kind of double your 1.5 by two. Is that the information going forward as well? So your interim will be just half of the full year results, full year dividend. Thank you. Well, indeed. Of course, we still have a half year to go. A decision will be made next year. As you know, interim dividend is very often an indication
Where the company plans to land on the final dividend. In that sense, I think your analysis is right. But decisions will be taken after we see the full year results at the end of the year.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would like to return the conference call back to the speakers.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your questions. To end this call, let me summarize for you the main conclusions. We had a strong second quarter, both operationally and commercially, and this translated into excellent operating KPIs in the consolidated entities and a very high underlying.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect.