The Navigator Company, S.A. (ELI:NVG)
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Sep 16, 2026, 4:35 PM WET
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Earnings Call: H2 2020

Jan 28, 2021

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to The Navigators Company conference call and webcast for the fourth quarter and full year 2020 results. We are sorry we are a few minutes late because we had a question with the password. I expect that everybody has been able to join now. Thank you. Today, participating in the call, we have the following members of the board, António Redondo, Adriano Silveira, João Lé, João Paulo Oliveira, Fernando Araújo, and Nuno Santos. As usual, we will start with a brief presentation of the main highlights for the period, and we will have a Q&A session at the end. The presentation is accessible. The links available on the website, and you can also address written questions through the webcast platform. I will ask António now to start with a few comments on the figures for the period. António, please.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Joana. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. I will start by going to slide four, please, and make a global overview on Q4 2020. We continue to register signs of improvement in demand for uncoated woodfree products throughout the quarter, especially in Europe, but also in the Middle East, North African region, albeit the partial lockdowns implemented. We maintain good operating and commercial performance in the pulp and tissue businesses. We kept our efforts to contain costs, both fixed and variable, and ended the year delivering significant amounts of savings versus 2019. All of this in an extremely difficult market environment in terms of pricing, that finally started to improve towards the year-end, namely in pulp.

Going over some specific figures for the first two months of the quarter, I would say that the uncoated woodfree market continued to perform better than other grades, falling 8% globally versus 9% in coated and a decrease of 18% in mechanical papers. Demand for uncoated woodfree in Europe fell 7% in Q4, which compares to a 10% fall in Q3 and a 28% reduction in Q2. Demand in the rest of the world fell also 7% in October, November, with a steeper decline in U.S.A., - 13% in the two months period. As previously observed, shifted business recorded the largest drop in consumption, and office was by no means worse than graphic, while the real business was more resilient. All of Navigator's machines have been operating since July without any commercial stoppage. We have been controlling our stock levels and managing our order books.

Our uncoated woodfree sales totaled 343,000 tons, up by 2% in relation to Q3 and 6% lower than Q4 last year. Sales performance remains slightly more positive in Europe than in other markets. In terms of price, the benchmark for uncoated woodfree paper remained under pressure over the period, dropping 2.3% versus Q3 and 8.5% versus Q4 2019. Navigator's average sale price followed this trend, reflecting also, first, the pressure from non-European markets, secondly, the change in the format's quality mix, increasing proportion of reels and economic products, third, the incoterms mix, and fourth, the weakness of the U.S. dollar and other European currencies against the euro. Still, I would like to point out that in the fourth quarter, Navigator implemented price increases in international markets of more than $40 per ton in sales denominated in U.S. dollars.

Sales in euros in international markets evolved even more positively, even though these increases in euros and dollars in sale price allowed to recover part of the erosion in net prices, this was not fully reflected in the final price in euros in view of the unfavorable cost of U.S. dollar-euro exchange rate and the sales mix per currency. In terms of pulp, the quarter was a solid quarter for volumes, even though we had less available pulp to sell due to the increase in paper integration and the low stock level. Pulp sales volume totaled 97,000 tons, down 7% in relation to the third quarter and down 3% year-on-year. In terms of prices, even though still at very low levels, we registered an improvement in our average sales price in the last quarter versus the previous one.

The tissue business registered a solid performance with strong volumes and stable prices in a quarter that was marked by maintenance stoppages in Aveiro and Vila Velha de Ródão mills, as we previously announced. In this context of low pulp and paper prices, we continued to work on our cost structure, acting on fixed costs, but also on variable costs. We were able to record important savings due to a remarkable teamwork in improving specific consumption, as well as price negotiations of raw materials like fibers, chemicals, packaging, and energy. Our turnovers stood at EUR 341 million, and the EBITDA registered in the quarter was EUR 75 million, improving 7% versus Q3 and 5% versus Q4 2019, reaching a margin EBITDA sales of 22%. After paying an additional EUR 99 million in dividends, net debt stood at EUR 680 million and net debt to EBITDA at 2.38 x.

Our free cash flow evolved positively to EUR 63 million from EUR 56 million registered in Q3. If you now go, please, to slide five, we have an overview of the performance of the full year 2020. I would like to stress once more that in an extremely troubled year in which demand for our products was hit hard by the pandemic and prices fell sharply, Navigator's business model proved to be both flexible and resilient, and we were able to adjust swiftly to changes in the market, taking significant action to improve sales on tissue and pulp, as well as significant reduced fixed and variable costs. When comparing 2019, the impact of the pandemic remains evident. Overall turnover declined 18% year-on-year and EBITDA 23%. Even among an extremely adverse period as what we experienced, Navigator was able to deliver a profitability margin of 21% in the year.

One of the aspects worth mentioning is the high generation of cash flow, which the group once more has proven to be capable of. We reached EUR 134 million of free cash flow at the end of December, using each and all of the possible levers, delivering EUR 47 million more than in 2019. If we take a look in more detail at the performance evolution over the last five quarters on slide six, we can see clearly the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Q2 and the rebound initiated in Q3 and continued in Q4 2020. After a strong start of the year, we had to adjust the decline in uncoated woodfree sales registered in Q2, reducing paper outputs, and increasingly significantly our sales of pulp to the market and our tissue products as well.

In 2020, we sold 394,000 tons of market pulp, the highest level since 2009, after we started up PM4, our latest machine in Setúbal, and the site became fully integrated into uncoated woodfree paper. At the time, we decided to maintain our drying capacity, and this has proven to be a sound decision in the context of adverse market for paper. We have the flexibility to increase our market pulp sales. Tissue volumes also performed quite well and reached an all-time high of 106,000 tons, even with the decline of the away-from-home market. In Q4, uncoated woodfre e volumes recovered 148% from the lows in Q2, getting very close to pre-COVID-19 level.

This was achieved in the midst of low pulp and paper prices, as I've already mentioned, which we tried to offset by containing costs, and we were able to achieve consecutive improvement in EBITDA and operating cash flow since Q2. I will now ask Fernando to comment on the EBITDA evolution on the next slide. Fernando, please.

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

Thank you, António. EBITDA in Q4 was negatively impacted by a decline in paper and in average tissue prices. The latter impacted by a product mix that favored reels and a steeper decline on their prices. Our net pulp price evolved positively and grew 80% over Q3. In terms of volume, increase in paper allowed to more than offset decline in volumes of pulp due to higher integration into paper and a very low level of stocks and slightly in volumes of tissue. When compared to Q3, the global cost impact is negative due to increase in human resources costs as the company decide to attribute a bonus at the end of the year. The rest of the fixed cost evolved positively in terms of variable cost. Although persisting the efforts to optimize specific consumption, the rate of improvement is now stabilizing due to the pickup in production speed.

Others include a positive impact of EUR 16.7 million from the biological assets evaluation related to our Mozambique forest. As stated in our results release, we have start wood harvesting operations on Portucel Moçambique's plantations in Manica for export through the Port of Beira, and three shiploads are currently planned for delivery in 2021, representing approximately 100,000 tons with cubic meters of wood. In view of these developments, the group revised assumption concerning the eucalyptus wood market in Mozambique, valuing the forest in Manica and Zambezia by approximately EUR 16.7 million, a value impact biological assets, and a reversal from the symmetric movement than in the recent past years. Let me add that given the remaining uncertainties, the group maintaining its exposure to Mozambique assets fully provided.

If we go to slide eight, with the comparison of EBITDA between Q3, Q4 2020 and Q4 2019, the impact of these adjustments is negligible, as we registered a positive impact in biological assets in 2019 as well. When comparing Q4 2020 to Q4 2019, EBITDA evolved favorably by 4%, mainly as a result of cost reduction on both variable and fixed cost, namely function cost, as price and volumes evolved negatively. Looking at the EBITDA evolution for the full year on slide nine, the main negative drivers were prices for pulp, paper, and tissue, even though the two latter present higher resilience. Volumes also negatively impact 2020 EBITDA, namely the reduction in paper volumes hampered by the COVID crisis, which was still partially balanced by strong increase in pulp and tissue volumes already mentioned. The positive impact of cost is also very clear in the graph.

We achieve a significant reduction of EUR 107 million, and these figures includes EUR 60 million in variable costs, namely external fibers, wood, chemicals, and packaging, as well EUR 47 million in fixed costs, 15% reduction versus 2019, achieved in human resources, personal, EUR 11 million, 23%, maintenance, EUR 7 million, 15%, and function cost, EUR 39 million, 60%. I will now ask Nuno Santos to give us a few words on the market conditions.

Nuno Santos
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Fernando. Good afternoon to all. On slide 11, we have an overview of pulp and paper price evolution over the last years for the main price indexes in Europe, A4 B-copy and BHKP in euros, hardwood kraft pulp. Net pulp prices in 2020 reached a very low point, which is actually the lowest point since the 2009 crisis. A consequence of the strong supply, decrease in demand from China, which led to excess stocks in the value chain, and the devaluation of the dollar versus the euro, which significantly impacted European pulp producers' margins. Paper prices, although more resilient, are also under pressure and are down 7.4% year-on-year, declining 8.3% from January until December 2020. So, going over to slide 12, we have a brief overview of the pulp market.

The global pulp market held up well against the adverse environment of an economic downturn caused by the pandemic. World demand for hardwood is estimated to have risen 8% year-on-year, year to date November, driven by China, where demand actually surged by around 16%. Stocks of short fiber at manufacturers have come down over the year, currently standing at around 37 days, below the average level of 41 days for the period 2009 - 2019, over the last 10 years. Hardwood pulp has been supported by robust demand for end products, in particular in China, where tissue, uncoated woodfree and packaging grew in excess of estimates, especially in the second half of 2020. Demand for hardwood pulp also benefit from the effect of substitution of softwood fiber due to the wide price gap between the two fibers, with softwood price abnormally higher than hardwood.

Finally, due to the low price of virgin hardwood fiber and to the growing scarcity of high quality recycled fiber, which diminished availability due to the pandemic, there was a substitution effect between recycled fiber for virgin fiber pulp, which was another important factor supporting increased demand for pulp in 2020. At the same time, the supply of pulp was constrained in the fourth quarter by plant maintenance shutdowns in hardwood and softwood at a larger number of manufacturers. These stoppages proved longer than normal as a result of the safety restrictions required by the pandemic. Net pulp prices continued on a downward trajectory over the year, reaching a low point in this price cycle during the summer.

Over the course of 2020, the gross benchmark list for hardwood kraft pulp in Europe in dollars stayed at $680 per ton, which is 20% lower than the average price of $855 per ton in 2019. The price of hardwood pulp in euros also dropped by 22% to EUR 597 per ton versus the EUR 762 per ton. The recent weakness of the dollar against the euro during the second half penalized the PIX index in euros, thereby hitting the profitability of European pulp manufacturers. However, in the second half of the year, prices on international markets started to recover, with substantial price increases being announced in various geographical regions for both short and long fiber, including in Europe from first quarter 2021. Pulp price in China started improving in Q3, with an increase of $115 for softwood during the second semester and $50 for hardwood during the fourth quarter.

In Europe, softwood also increased $40 throughout Q4 2020. This further widened the price gap between hardwood and softwood, thus favoring softwood substitution and putting positive price pressure on hardwood. Major softwood producers announced price increases for first quarter 2021 of $960 for January and up to $1,030 for February in Europe. To $690 and around $700 for January, and $800 for February in China. For hardwood, there were announcements of $750 for January 2021, and $820 for February in Europe, and to $530 for January and $580 for February in China. Ourself as Navigator, we have already closed February sales in Europe at $820. In the U.S.A., there are already announcements of $1,300 for February for softwood, after $1,180 for January. I will now ask João Paulo to comment on the paper markets.

João Paulo Oliveira
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Nuno. Going now to slide 13 and looking at demand. Estimates point to a global reduction of approximately 16% in printing and writing, with uncoated woodfree performing better than other grades, falling by around 13% year- to- date November. This reduction is smaller than in other printing and writing paper segments. Demand for coated paper is estimated to have dropped 17%, and mechanical paper 21%. In Europe, the estimated accumulated reduction is 12%, and in the U.S., the figures point to a drop of close to 19%. After the sharp slump in April and May, demand for paper recovered gradually from June onwards, and this trend was confirmed over the third and fourth quarters with the reopening of the economies, especially in the European markets. Although noticeable signs of improvement were also witnessed in Middle East and North Africa throughout Q4.

All uncoated woodfree formats showed signs of recovery, with sales of reels proving the most resilient since the start of the pandemic. On the supply side, we have also seen announcement of permanent capacity closures. In uncoated woodfree, some 0.8 million tons will exit the North American market. In Asia, namely Japan, Thailand, and Indonesia, an additional 0.8 million tons is being reduced. Also, several producers in Europe have announced closures and conversions in printing and writing, mainly in coated and newsprint. On the other hand, there were approximately 0.8 million tons of new capacity starting in China at the end of the year. At the end of the year, analysts estimated lower stocks of cut size at European distributors.

The year-on-year trend in sales prices reflects the adjustment that started in the second half of 2019, and continued throughout the first half of 2020, and the pressure from the pandemic and the low level of pulp prices. The benchmark index for A4 showed a downward adjustment of 2.3% between Q3 and Q4, falling 7% year-on-year. The benchmark price dropped 8.3% from January to December. On slide 14, looking at the year-on-year evolution of the order entry for European mills for fine papers, and mainly for uncoated woodfree and coated woodfree, we can draw several conclusions. First, a better performance from uncoated versus coated throughout the year. Second, considering two COVID waves, the first in Q2 and the second in Q4, the impact of these two waves was completely different, as the second wave had a less severe reflection on order inflow than the first one.

Actually, the recovery of uncoated woodfree continued throughout Q4, and demand in December was just minus 5% year-on-year. The comparison is actually a difficult one, as Q4 2019 had a strong order inflow. With the increase in COVID-19 infection rate in several countries in Europe, current environment is uncertain. Still, during the first weeks of 2021, the ordering flow from European clients to European mills has been the highest of the last four years. Let's go over to slide 15 with the group paper and pulp performance. The gradual recovery in the market, coupled with a significant effort at the commercial front, was translated into a significant increase in sales output in Q3 and Q4, + 148% in Q4 versus Q2, 343,000 tons with a strong performance recorded in Europe. Coated wood-free sales for this year totaled 1,276,000 tons, down by approximately 12% on previous year.

The sales value in the group's uncoated woodfree business was also hit by falling paper prices, and the sales dropped in value by around 21% to EUR 945 million. The reduction in the group sales price was in line with PIX, and the average price outside Europe was brought down by exchange rate trends, mix of currencies, and evolution of the product favoring reels and market mix. During the second quarter, Navigator adopted a large package of innovative measures to support its distributors and their sales teams in different parts of Europe and around the world. This was successful in achieving a significant increase in the order book at the end of December. The group registered orders equivalent to 30 days output, in line with levels recorded in previous years and 8% above competitors.

These intensive sales efforts also allowed Navigator to boost its market share in Europe, up 1.2 percentage points versus 2019. When comparing the first and second halves of 2020, this gain among European competitors widened an impressive 2.6 percentage points. Navigator inventories reduced throughout the second half of 2020 to reach the end of the year with a lower level than the average 2019 in days of sales and represented less than half of European competitors' inventories. Stocks in the pipeline are estimated to be below normal. To comment on the pulp performance, I will hand over to Nuno again. Nuno, please.

Nuno Santos
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, João Paulo. As António already stated, Navigator succeeded to record a volume of 394,000 tons of pulp sold to the market in 2020, 25% higher than in 2019, making this the best period since 2009 in terms of volumes. This growth was made possible by the increased diversification of sales to destinations outside Europe, by sizing opportunities in the tissue and packaging segments, and by taking advantage of the greater availability of market pulp as a result of reduced paper production in the second quarter. Sales turnover reached EUR 156 million in the full year, declining 6% from 2019 amidst the context of low price environment as we have just seen. Let's take a look at the tissue performance on slide 16. Demand for tissue products proved very resilient and presented a slight growth, even in the context of an economic slowdown and the pandemic situation.

As a result, in 2020, demand for tissue grew by 1.8% in Europe, although this was lower in Iberia, despite the overall decline across the away-from-home segment. Global sales volume stood at 106,000 tons in 2020, reflecting a 7% increase from 2019. The group's tissue business was able to react positively to the opportunity offered by the peak in demand triggered by the COVID-19 for products in the at-home segment. It should also be noted that the away-from-home segment was quite affected by the COVID-19 situation, as these products are aimed at a large extent at HORECA channels, hotel, restaurants, and cafes, and at companies which were severely affected by the lockdown measures implemented from mid-March onwards.

This was particularly devastating in Iberia, home of our main away-from-home sale, where tourism represents a significant part of the economy and brings a very significant number of new tissue customers to the region every year. Still, the group made a significant effort, both industrially and commercially, to adjust its production to market needs and to the growing demand for the at-home products. Several new products were launched throughout the year in a strong commercial effort to complete our at-home product portfolio. The group accordingly recorded an increase in tissue turnover of approximately 7% to EUR 141 million. Finished products represented 76% of our sales in 2020. In terms of industrial activity, we had a good performance in the period in both the Aveiro and Vila Velha de Ródão mills, and we managed to improve our fixed costs.

Overall, we are pleased to acknowledge that the EBITDA margin for the tissue business has improved significantly over the previous year and is now clearly closer to what we believe we can achieve in this business. I'd like to stress that a significant part of this margin improvement is related to the overall reduction in costs, both variable and fixed. For example, fixed costs were reduced by 12% versus 2019, while tissue prices were kept relatively stable. For example, we reduced 1% the prices from 2019 in finished goods. And also, we were able to sell more volume of finished goods. We increased 7.5% versus last year. I will now hand over to Adriano, who will comment on the CapEx side.

Adriano Silveira
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Nuno. On slide 17, we have an overview of the CapEx in the full year of 2020. [inaudible] , Navigator has decided a substantial revision of its CapEx plan for 2020. From investment initiative estimate that EUR 148 million to approximately EUR 80 million. As a result, capital expenditure in 2020 totaled EUR 81 million as compared to EUR 158 million in 2019. This sum includes mostly projects aimed to maintaining production capacity and achieving efficiency gains. It also includes EUR 25 million for our environmental project, namely the new biomass boiler in Figueira da Foz, EUR 22 million for this project, and around EUR 17 million on projects to recondition assets, in particular, two projects undertaken at the Aveiro mill. New sheet pile and the revamping of the wet pulp section in the pulp machine of the line machine.

Both projects are part of the roadmap for decarbonization and modernization of the group. Our investment plan has been reassessed. Our main focus will be on efficiency increase, modernization, and digitalization of the operations while continuing with the decarbonization plan. As part of this strategy, some capacity increase in the pulp business will be possible by small revamping. One of the major investments that starts in the previous year is our new biomass boiler in Figueira da Foz that will allow for a reduction in our CO2 emissions by 32%. I will hand over to João to comment on this project. João, please.

João Lé
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Adriano. If we turn to slide 18, we have a few details on that project. As you know, this is the most relevant step that the group is taking towards the goal of achieving carbon neutrality of its industrial facilities by 2035 in a EUR 55 million investment. This new unit will enable the company to reduce its emissions of fossil carbon dioxide at the Figueira da Foz site by between 150 and 200,000 tons a year, cutting the group's emissions by 30% in 2021, representing already slightly more than a third of the goal the company has set itself to accomplish 14 years from now.

This capital project was part of the company's decarbonization strategy, reflecting the decision taken in 2019 to meet the European targets 15 years ahead of schedule in 2035, and so achieve carbon neutrality at all its industrial complexes, entailing a reduction of 86% in its CO2 emissions. Achieving this will involve a total investment of EUR 154 million. Approximately 400,000 tons of biomass will be used each year to fuel the new unit. All of this will come from internal waste produced in debarking eucalyptus wood, bark, and sawdust, joined by a further 200,000 tons of external forestry waste produced in forestry and countryside management operations.

The new boiler will use this waste forestry biomass to generate thermal energy for the company's production processes, resulting in much greater efficiencies in generating energy, combined generation of heat and electricity, and that the new facility will have increased capacity and meet tougher standards of environmental performance as a result of The Navigator Company's commitment in using the best technology available today for this purpose. I will ask Fernando to make the next comments. Fernando, please.

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

Thank you, João. On slide 19. It should be recalled that the year start with free cash flow generation of EUR 15 million in the first quarter, and the strong growth was recorded after the yearly impact of the pandemic, EUR 90 million in the second quarter, EUR 56 million in the third, and EUR 63 million on the fourth quarter. In the last quarter, free cash flow was positively impacted by significant reductions in inventories, mainly of wood, a reduction in clients' receivables, and reimbursement of approximately EUR 14 millions from the antidumping process received in Q4. On slide 20, we have an overview of free cash flow for the full year of 2020, where we obtained an impressive figure of EUR 234 million, comparing very favorably to the free cash flow of EUR 186 million reached in 2019.

Free cash flow in 2020 was positively impacted by an overall reduction in inventories of wood and pulp, clients' receivables once again, and state reimbursements relate to corporate income tax. Free cash flow was also positively impacted by around EUR 80 million from the antidumping process received during 2020, the same EUR 40 million for POR1 in Q4 mentioned previously, and in addition, 346 million for POR2 in June 2020. This strong free cash flow generation allow for a reduction in net debt over the year of EUR 35 million, after being paid a total amount of EUR 198 million of dividends in the year, as you can see on slide 21.

Thus, at the end of December, net debt totally EUR 690 million, excluding the impact of IFRS 16, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at a conservative level of 2.38x , excluding the impact of IFRS 16 once again. Let's go now to the next slide with a quick overview of our financial activity over 2020. We took a highly active approach to finance activities in this year. Three phases may be identified over the course of the year. First, our main concern was to secure sufficient liquidity to face the great uncertainty about the impact of the pandemic on the group's business. To this end, the company contracts a number of short-term facilities around EUR 210 million.

Once it said guaranteed liquidity is needed, the group turned its attention in the second half of the year to refinancing a series of operations maturing in 2021, ensuring long-term debt totaling EUR 222 million. This operation did not involve any immediate cash injection, cash-in. Instead, providing for use of the funds as and when needed in accordance with the projections. This planning approach geared to stay one step ahead of the developments forms the basis of the group's long-established financial policy. Lastly, in the final quarter, the group partially restructured a loan maturing in 2023, buying back the bonds and simultaneously issuing fresh bonds totaling EUR 75 million maturing in 2026. With these operations, the group extend the average maturity of its medium and long-term debt to approximately 3.7 years.

Our average cost of debt remains very competitive at 1.5% at year-end, and most of our debt has a fixed rate. We believe that Navigator maintains a strong financial stance. I will now hand back to António for the wrap-up.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Thank you, Fernando. If we please can go to slide 24, we have a recap of the main developments occurring in Q4. The recovery in uncoated woodfree demand in Europe continued during Q4, as mentioned before, in spite of the implementation of partial lockdowns. We have all our machines up and running since mid-July. We have improved uncoated woodfree sales and registered strong volumes for both pulp and tissue. Paper prices continued depressed during the quarter, but pulp prices started to improve at year-end. We continued our cost contention efforts during Q4 and managed to achieve strong operation figures and generate a high level of free cash flow while paying an additional EUR 99 million in dividends. We kept our net debt under control, and net debt to EBITDA levels stood, as mentioned by Fernando, under 2.4 x.

Before going to our outlook for 2021, I would like to say a few words on the antidumping process. If we can please move to slide 25. This antidumping process has been impacting our uncoated woodfree sales to the U.S.A. for the last five years. As you may recall, since August 2015, U.S. authorities have been conducting extensive reviews of all Navigator's U.S. and Portuguese sales and costs, following their own guidelines and their own comparison criteria. From this analysis, a technical dumping margin has been applied to the company's U.S. exports, even if the company believes no commercial dumping exists. Given high preliminary dumping rates applied, which were effectively revised downwards after due process, excess amounts deposited in these initial periods are now being refunded to Navigator with interest when interest is due.

So far, the company has received all excess deposits for the period of review two, or POR2, and almost all excess deposits for period of review one, or POR1. We received total amounts for both periods in 2020 of approximately EUR 80 million, and a further EUR 6 million is expected in 2021, actually partially already received. On January 19, 2021, the Department of Commerce, DOC, confirmed the final rate to apply to the third period under review, POR3. The final rate and change versus preliminary rate is 6.75%. The confirmed rate is in line with the company's estimates and means that the estimated duty paid when importing to the U.S. will now be 6.75% until the final results of POR4. Going now to our outlook on slide 26.

The worsening of the pandemic situation and the additional restrictions on economic activity that are occurring in many European countries will probably impact performance during Q1. Nevertheless, the current market context is quite positive, as the early weeks of January have started quite well, not only in order inflow terms, but also with a recovery in pulp prices, with a number of producers announcing price increases for N-cool 3 as well. In pulp, the recent price increases for both long and short fiber in China and Europe have been successful and have started to be reflected in the PIX price index. Producer stocks are close or below normal levels, namely in short fiber, as it is our case.

The increase in pulp prices provided support to raising paper prices, and Navigator announced a 4%-6% increase in N-cool 3 products for Europe for February, and many other producers have followed. I do remember that we did announce in December an increase of another $50 for international markets that we are actually implementing as well. In tissue as well, as soon as pulp prices increase takes effect, it is highly likely that prices will rise in the tissue market, possibly around 4%-5%, so as not to undermine the profitability of the different manufacturers. A significant increase in the price of tissue reels is expected for reels imported to Europe, not only due to the increase in pulp, but also due to the inflation in logistics. This will impact quite significantly non-integrated tissue producers.

In our case, we were actually able to implement already a 5% increase for tissue rolls in Q1 2021. Let's go to slide 27 with a few words on our CapEx and costs estimates for 2021. As just seen, CapEx for 2020 stood at EUR 81 million after being revised down from EUR 158 million, and for 2021, we estimate the CapEx will stand somewhere between EUR 100 million and EUR 120 million. This amount will be mainly geared at maintaining our production capacity and reconditioning our assets as well as for environmental projects. In terms of costs, after delivering a very significant reduction of EUR 107 million in overall variable and fixed costs, EUR 6 million in variable and EUR 47 million in fixed, our goal is to continue focus on cost control and consolidate the reductions achieved in 2020 over 2019.

Although some of the reductions were leveraged by the pandemic, we expect to retain some of the efficiency in specific consumptions achieved in variable costs, and in fixed costs, retain around 80% of the reduction achieved in functioning and maintenance costs. Thank you.

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Thank you, António. This ends our comments for now. We will now be open for the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask an audio question, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind and wish to remove your question, please press star two. We have an audio question on the line from João Pinto from JB Capital Markets. Please go ahead, João.

João Pinto
Analyst, JB Capital Markets

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. I have four questions, if I may. The first one on Mozambique. Can you tell us what kind of financial impact can we expect from the shiploads that are planned to deliver in 2021? The second one on dividends. What would be a reasonable assumption for the dividend proposal this year? 100% payout would make sense, or could it be more given the amount of dividends paid in the recent past? My third question regarding a bit, the margins. Can you give us some color on the margin range that you expect next year? Is it reasonable to expect stable margins versus 2020?

Lastly, you mentioned in the outlook in the full year release that UWF capacity closures in the U.S. and Asia for 2021 can support balance in the market. Can you give us some color on the amount of tons that will exit the market? Thank you.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Thank you, João. I will address some of the questions and then I will pass, if necessary, to my comments to further comments. Starting with the Mozambique shiploads, as mentioned before, we started operations, we start harvesting in 2020, and we expect to bring rolls into port, so rolls of wood, not ships, into Portugal in three vessels, so around about 100,000 cubic meters. Our expectation is that the total cost of the operation will be competitive with other extra high-density imports we do for Portugal. João, can you comment a bit further, please?

João Lé
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Yes, António, of course. Well, this is an operation that will be conducted this year. As António previously said, we started the harvesting process in the end of December or in the middle of December last year. This will bring us round wood from Manica province, and will be also extended to another vessel in 2022. That's it for now.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Regarding your second question about the dividends. At this moment, we have no decision in this particular chapter. The board of directors will obviously do in the right moment, and obviously will do it within the legal limits to distribute dividends. Fernando, you want to add something?

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

I would say that on the time of decision that will be in the second quarter we'll take in consideration the results of the environment as well the pandemic. This makes sense on our views for the moment, but it's something to be decided in March.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Regarding your third question about the EBITDA margin range for 2021. We actually are expecting a slight improvement on our EBITDA margin. As mentioned before, we are seeing a good price momentum, at least in the first part of the year, in the first months of the year. We do expect pulp prices to be strong at least until the summer, most likely all year, but at least until the summer, while no new capacity is going to start up. This will obviously put pressure on the variable margins of uncoated woodfree producers and as we mentioned before, also on the margins of tissue producers. We expect to have a favorable wind on the price dimensions. We also expect to have a more favorable wind on the demand for uncoated woodfree, and as explained, we intend to keep on working on our cost base.

Altogether, we are going to fight for an improvement on the EBITDA margin 2021. Regarding your last question about the possible operating rate for 2021. There are different scenarios, so I'm not going to comment on the different scenarios. Obviously, we are not going to be yet the 90%, which is typically the average OR for the European industry in the last few years except this year. We also believe we are going to be significantly better than this year. We expect a more favorable OR in 2021. Thank you.

João Pinto
Analyst, JB Capital Markets

Thank you very much.

Operator

As a reminder, for any further questions, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We have a question from António Seladas at AS Independent Research. Please go ahead, António.

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for your presentation. I don't know if you can add more color in Mozambique project, mainly the exports. If you can mention what is the amount in euros of what you are going to export in volume in 2021, in this year. What are the estimates or what we expect for the coming year in terms of exports? If all the wood that we export is for Portugal or if you can export for China. I don't know if you can add more color on this project in Mozambique. Secondly, I think that you mentioned that you revalue the asset by about EUR 17 million. However, I think that you also mentioned that all the asset base is provisioned. If you can explain what is the difference between the asset in Mozambique that are provisioned and the revaluation.

The third question is related with your order book. You mentioned that your order book at the end of the year was about 30 days. Taking consideration your presentation, your environment are described very, well, at least in terms of prices, strong. We can assume that your order book currently is also at 30 days. Thank you.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Thank you for your questions, António. I will give you some comments in each one of them. João will further comment on the Mozambique project, and then Fernando will comment as well on the Mozambique assets. I must say that the question regarding Mozambique assets was not very clear because of the sound. If you are so kind to repeat it, I will be sure.

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

Sure. I think that you revalue the asset by EUR 17 million by the end of the year, more or less, the Mozambique asset. I think that in the press release, you also mentioned that you kept the asset provision on your press release.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Okay.

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

I don't understand. At the same time, you also mentioned, at least in the press release, that the assets are provisioned.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

It's very clear. Fernando will comment that shortly. Regarding the Mozambique project, obviously, we cannot give guidance of the specific costs of wood and the specific amount of export. As mentioned, the price at which these woods will arrive to Portugal, ballpark figure is competitive vis-a-vis our imports from outside Iberia, so from Latin America. The other question that is implicit in your initial question is regarding what we are going to do. We need to understand this is a first commercial pilot. We need to make sure that we know a couple of things already about Mozambique. We know that the wood grows at very nice rates, equal to probably the best we have in Brazil, or above the average that we have in Brazil. From the point of view of the forestry, we are quite happy.

We know that we are able to harvest efficiently, but we need to prove that we are able to put it in the port, export into a vessel, and arrive in Portugal. This is a commercial pilot with three vessels. If this commercial pilot is successful, we do believe that we have conditions to continue, and João already alluded to this, to continue to export rolls, so wood rolls, in the coming years into Portugal. Exporting to other regions of the world at this moment might be more complicated because the typical wood export market is based in chips, not in wood rolls. We are not yet at that stage. A commercial pilot, three vessels with a continuation 2022, and if successful, we will have a capability during the next few years to do some export of rolls. João, do you want to shed some light on this, please?

João Lé
Executive Director, The Navigator Company

Thank you, António. I think you said most of it. In fact, this is our first trial in terms of volumes involved. This is very significant, in fact. The intention is to go through all the logistics process, the certification process, the loading in the vessels, the use of the port of Beira facilities. This is, most of all, an important test for all of us to improve and to create conditions to develop the project in the long run.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Regarding the second question, Fernando will provide you further details.

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

Okay. The first thing that you need to recall is the fact that in the past, after 2014, we have two kinds of assets in our balance sheet related with the Mozambique project. One, it's a fixed asset. It's regarding preparation of the land. This means what we have to do with the machines to be able to plant the eucalyptus seeds. That was recorded as a fixed asset. In addition to that, we have the biologic assets. In 2016 and 2017, we have impaired both values. This means the balance sheet was with a zero impact. This means that we have netted the asset side of the balance sheet with these two type of assets. In 2018, we have, I would say, a negative perspective on the project.

This means we are not sure that we'll be able to proceed with the project in the future, depend on some conditions that should be fulfilled by the local government, and we were not very convinced that will happen in the future. Nowadays, and during last year, we saw a slight improvement in the project, and that's why in 2018, we have provide a figure. If you want to close down the activities, we need to pay to our employees at the time, we need to have certain expenses, and that was provided in the balance sheet in 2018. This means at the end of 2018, we have a passive, we have a liability in our asset, only a liability in our balance sheet. Regarding some developments and some commitments that the local government and some private investors have made that they will proceed with the Nacala project port.

We believe that there are strong commitments that in 2024 we will [inaudible] . This means now, we are not negative, and because we have some assets that we could recover and buy back to Portugal, we have reversed the impairment, but only in what concerns biological assets. We have reversed EUR 16.7 million. At the same time, we still have a provision in our balance sheet with a similar amount. That is why we say that in net terms, Mozambique is zero in our accounts. I hope that I...

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

Okay, thank you very much.

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

It's the best I can do to explain.

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

No, it was very comprehensive. Thank you very much. I didn't know that you, well, okay, that's okay, I understood.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Okay. Probably, what you can extract from our words regarding Mozambique, I'll jump to the first question in a second, is that we are very committed. We are more optimistic than we were before, we are extremely cautious at the same time. Order book. We end that year with 30 days order book. As it was commented by João Paulo, the order inflow in the first two weeks of January was actually very good, was actually the best of the last four years. We are living times of great uncertainty. The volatility on the order books has been quite big, like we saw when we moved from Q1 to Q2 and Q2 to Q3 last year. As we speak, our order book today is actually 34 days. Above the 30 days, we end up the year.

Shows well with all the machines up and running, shows well the improvement of the order flow in the first two weeks of January. Again, I need to underline the volatility and the uncertainty we are all living across the world. Thank you.

António Seladas
Analyst, AS Independent Research

Thank you very much for your comprehensive answers. Thank you very much.

Operator

At this time, we do not have any other questions on the telephone line.

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Hello. Yes, we do have a couple of questions that have come up through the webcast. I will read them, we will answer it one by one. First question by [Homi Bhey] from Gaesco: You have been taking efficiency measures for many years. Do you think there is still room to improve them? Do you quantify the measures you are going to take for this year? I believe we already did shed some light on that in the last comments from António regarding the 2021 cost, I will pass him again so he can complete the answer.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Thank you very much for your question. Probably just before trying to shed a bit of more light or repeat what I said, just a comment. We have been always taking efficiency measures all over the years. This is part of the DNA of this company for many, many decades. There is always room for improvement. Having said that, I don't remember in the last 33 years that in one year the company cut EUR 107 million of costs. So it means that, of course, the challenge going forward is much more complicated. Having said that, as mentioned before, the whole team, this has been a very large teamwork, and that was very deep into the organization. The whole team is extremely committed to keep on cost efficiency measures and to further enhance them.

We have registered that into our budget for 2021 in what refers to variable costs. We keep on working on our variable costs, learning what was done in 2020 in a very specific environment. I would like to believe that 2020 is a new normal for cost, and we can still slightly improve, but we need to prove it fully. Anyhow, we are as committed that we have implicit put that into our 2021 budget. Regarding fixed costs. Fixed costs for us, we have three main components. Is HR costs or personal costs, is maintenance costs, and is functioning costs. We had in 2020, obviously, a very reduced bonus to our people. We do expect if conditions will allow it, that we have a better variable pay in 2021 regarding 2020.

If this is the case, and we hope is the case, we are working for that, obviously this cost will increase. The other two costs, so functioning and the maintenance, as I think I've mentioned, we believe that about 80% of what we have cut in 2020 in very tough decisions and very tough measures, will be basically retained into the future.

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Okay. Thank you, António. We have an additional question on the platform. This is from Lorenzo van der Vaeren from Degroof Petercam: Could you shed some light on the net working capital improvements year-on-year when it comes to inventories? What are the drivers for the improvement? Is it sustainable, or should we expect some kind of unwinding in the coming quarters?

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Okay. I think Fernando will start answering the question.

Fernando Araújo
CFO, The Navigator Company

This means that we have made a very good rotation of our assets in inventory and in receivables, in what concerns receivables. We will try to maintain it as we could, but it always depends on the starting point. On the starting point, this year will be more difficult than the prior year. Nevertheless, our goal is to try to maintain it to the best of our efforts.

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Okay. So, we have an additional question on the platform. I will read it now. Since the amount of dividends and payouts will only be known in March, will there be a distribution twice during the year of 2021? This is the first question. The second question is the trend of digitalization due to the pandemic, how does it affect sales of A4 paper? This is from a private shareholder. I will pass to António.

António Redondo
CEO, The Navigator Company

Again, it's very soon to give any kind of guidance regarding the first question. We have yet not defined any decisions on that aspect. We cannot forget that 2020 was also a very special year, and this has, of course, implied as well the way we have distributed the dividends. The only thing we can tell is that if there are no reserve distributions, which we don't know yet if there are or not, it will be only once in case there are no reserve distributions. Again, I'm not giving any guidance if we are going to do it or not. Regarding the trend of digitalization due to the pandemic, obviously, this will affect the A4 paper sales. We have tried to understand with our distributors, and have performed a small market research to analyze this impact. Again, we didn't take yet any conclusions.

Everybody is yet with a very short sight on the real reasons behind what has happened in A4 paper demand. Having said that, as we have mentioned in previous calls, and again in this call, by no means office paper decreased more than graphic paper, which I think is a good indication. Graphic paper is very much related to things like commercial prints, and this is very much related with economy, and office paper decrease was of the same magnitude. I think it's yet too soon to expect that the digitalization trend due to the pandemic will have a higher impact on A4. Thank you.

Joana Appleton
Head of Investor Relations, The Navigator Company

Okay, thank you very much. We have no further questions on the platform. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This ends our session for today.