I now hand the conference over to Ana Canha, IR Officer at The Navigator Company. Please go ahead.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to The Navigator Company Conference Call and Webcast for the First Quarter Results. Joining us today are the following directors: António Redondo, Fernando Araújo, Nuno Santos, João Lé, Dorival Almeida, and António Quirino Soares. As usual, we will start with a brief presentation, and we will have Q&A session at the end. The presentation can be accessed through the links available on the website, and questions may be addressed also through the webcast platform. António will start with, by commenting on the main highlights of the quarter. I will hand over to António.
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us once again today. I'm very happy to be here and to share with you our first quarter results. As we will see in today's presentation, the resilience of Navigator's business model and our strong financial position has enabled us to present the highest results for a first quarter in the company's history. I will start with slide four for a global overview of the year. The first quarter of 2024 got off to a very positive start, as pulp and paper demand continued to improve, a trend already seen in the second half of last year. Pulp and paper prices increased quarter-on-quarter, driven by dynamic demand, a relatively slim pipeline, significant backlogs from key pulp suppliers, and several supply constraints.
For example, logistical restrictions in the Red Sea and other areas of the globe, strikes in Finland, and several incidents and limitations of supply around the world. Navigator recorded a total turnover of EUR 536 million, the highest result achieved in the first quarter, up 9% from the last quarter and up 7% year-on-year. EBITDA stood at EUR 133 million, keeping a strong EBITDA margin of 25%. Navigator has implemented price increases for uncoated woodfree paper, and actually, from November, when prices in Europe and in overseas markets started to move upwards again to April, Navigator's uncoated woodfree price increased by around 3% in Europe, actually 4% outside Iberia, and 9% in overseas markets, and a total of 5% for our sales mix.
Regarding cash costs, we again recorded a significant reduction year-on-year in all segments from 9%-16%. While staying focused on our diversification plan, in the first quarter, Navigator launched an offer to acquire Accrol, a leading independent converter in the U.K.'s consumer tissue market. The bid is already approved by Accrol shareholders and will become effective this week on May the 24th. With the integration of Accrol, we anticipate consolidated turnover in the tissue segment of around EUR 580 million, doubling the segment's turnover. We will give further details later in the presentation. Fernando will start with the main financial highlights. Fernando, please go ahead.
Thank you, António. Turning to slide five, as mentioned, turnovers stood at EUR 536 million, the highest ever result for the first quarter. 9% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year. CapEx totaling EUR 41 million, similar to the 2023 figure, of which approximately 32% was classified as value add environmental or sustainability investment. We maintain a consistent, conservative, conservative financial policy with a net debt to EBITDA ratio at 0.88x. Once again, the flexibility of our business model, adjusting production to demand, fixed and variable cost mentioned, commercial performance, and actively adjusting the business mix were decisive in protecting margin and stabilizing results.
Actually, if we turn to slide six, we can see that in the last nine quarters, with the exception of the extraordinary Q2 to Q4 2022 period, our EBITDA margin varied between EUR 122 million and EUR 133 million each quarter. Quite remarkable for a cyclical industry in an increasingly volatile world. Focusing on slide six, this quarter, we recorded higher sales volume. The volume of paper sales stood at 354,000 tons, up 10% on the fourth quarter, with sales in the valley growing by 12%. Year-on-year, we registered an increase of 29% in volume and 9% in value.
Pulp sales reached 110,000 tons, up 20% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while the value of the sales was up 28%, 28% quarter-on-quarter and down 2% year-on-year. To be noted that Navigator is not only a very efficient paper solution, but also one of the most efficient pulp solution in Europe, in Europe. The volume of tissue sales stood at 38,000 tons, down by 6% quarter-on-quarter, due to lower production availability, which affect sales up to you, and down by 59% year-on-year, driven by the integration of Navigator Tissue Arabia. In values, sales grew by 41% year-on-year, and there was a downward correction of 4% in relation to the previous quarter. My colleagues will give more detail on the performance of the individual business.
Turning now to slide seven, we can take a closer look at the main impacts on our EBITDA in a year-on-year comparison. This quarter, the downward cost of prices, influenced by the dynamics of the pulp market, was more than offset by increasing volume and a reduction in cash costs. We remain focused on managing cash costs by improving purchase price negotiation and optimizing consumption, especially of fiber, including wood and chemical, as well as logistics, but also on continuing efforts to contain fixed costs. As a result, as António mentioned, this quarter we recorded again a reduction in cash cost in relation to the same period in 2023, by between 9% and 16% in all pulp and paper segments, printing and writing, tissue, and textile.
Total fixed costs ended the period 5% higher than the same period in 2023, due to the inclusion of Tissue Arabia unit and renewal of the rejuvenation program for Pulp Setúbal . In this context, Navigator achieved an EBITDA of EUR 130 million in the first quarter. Turning to slide eight, we have an analysis of quarterly EBITDA versus last quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, both sales volume and market price increased, driven by a strong order book and the positive evolution of PIX BHKP, which my colleague, Nuno and Quirino , will comment on later on in the presentation. In the paper and tissue segments, downward trend in costs continue, with reductions between 4% and 5%, while in the pulp segment, costs remained stable.
It should be noted that first quarter of 2024 was impacted by the crisis in the Red Sea, causing change to maritime routes and causing freight rates to rise worldwide. Despite this constraint, Navigator managed to keep its maritime freight rates on a downward course. Quirino will now comment on pulp and paper price. Quirino, please.
Thank you, Fernando. Moving to slide 10, we have the evolution of pulp and paper. The first quarter of 2024 ended with a benchmark index for hardwood pulp, PIX BHKP, rising to $1,242 per ton. Since the start of the year, pulp prices have grown by approximately 22%, and everything suggests they will continue upwards, at least over the next quarter. Currently at $1,381 per ton, which is the highest nominal value ever reached, and an increase to $1,440, which has been announced, which should be reached in the next few weeks. Prices in China mirrored the developments in Europe, reaching a net $684 per ton at the end of the quarter, at 5% since the start of the year 2024.
The benchmark index for office paper prices in Europe, PIX A4 B-copy, ended the quarter at EUR 1,105 per ton, up by 1% from the start of the year, which was a EUR 1,093 per ton. Moving to slide 11, we have summarized the main developments in uncoated wood demand. The upward course of demand observed in the second half of last year continued during this first quarter. Apparent global demand for printing and writing grew by 0.3% in this quarter up to March, with stronger demand for uncoated wood, uncoated wood-free papers, which was up by 0.8%. In contrast to coated wood-free papers, which were down by 1.2%. Demand for paper produced from mechanical pulp grew by 0.3%.
In Europe, in particular, the paper demand for uncoated woodfree paper grew significantly more, by about 10% this quarter, with the folio segment as the top performer at 20% growth. But also the office paper segment, which in principle, would be more vulnerable to the trend towards digitalization, presented also, office paper, a growth of 10%, while reels grew by 5% year on year. As a result, the positive trends in the pace of new orders in the second half of 2023 continued in the first quarter of this year, with an orders to capacity ratio reaching 90% versus 70% in the first half of last year, and 80% in the second half of 2023. Moving to the U.S., demand dropped by about 1%.
The pulp and coated woodfree consumption in other world regions grew by 1% in February, with China recording an impressive 12% year-on-year, which compares to a compound annual growth rate historically of 5.8%, 5.8% since 2021 to 2024. As just mentioned, the benchmark for office paper prices in Europe recorded the modest increase. Nevertheless, the average sales price in Navigator's paper segment performed strongly, up by around 2% quarter-on-quarter.
Significantly, as António mentioned, from November to April, Navigator's uncoated woodfree price increased by around 3% in Europe, 4% outside Iberia, in Europe, and 9% in overseas markets, which gives a total of 5% increase for the total sales mix. It should be noted that paper total turnover for Navigator continues at a high level historically. In challenging markets, own brands and high value segments provide extra protection for Navigator's results. Nuno will give some market context on top. Nuno?
Thank you, Quirino. Turning to slide 12. As Quirino mentioned, the first half of 2024 witnessed a significant and rapid increase in pulp prices. Supply and demand dynamic was decisive for the increase in prices. China remains the driving force behind the recovery, thanks to new paper, packaging, and tissue capacity, which started in the second half of 2023, around close to 1 million tons of printing and writing paper, 1 million tons of virgin fiber-based packaging, and 1 million tons of tissue. Both of the developed economies have also presented growth in hardwood demand due to the performance of downstream markets, especially in Europe, up 4.2% in February versus last year. Performance at end consumers in Europe was better than expected, especially in the printing and writing paper industry, where order books grew substantially.
On the supply side, logistical constraints in the Red Sea, constraints on supply in Canada, the strike in Finland, and the unavailability of output from one of the largest pulp mills of a leading player, Metsä, also in Finland, due to an incident at the production unit, put upwards pressure on long fiber prices, adding further to the substitution of long fiber by short fiber. This situation was aggravated already this quarter with supply limitations in Latin America, due to port strikes in Chile and floods in Brazil, and in Asia with a boiler explosion as well. At the same time, further pressure on prices has stemmed from the structural increase in pulp production costs, which continue to incorporate very significant increases in wood, chemicals, freight, and labor in relation to pre-pandemic levels.
These rising costs are having a more severe impact in Latin America, Scandinavia, and Canada than in Portugal. On the other hand, the year started with stocks at low level, above all at ports in Europe, but also at manufacturers. The level of stocks at European ports remains below the average for the past 5 years. In China, stocks at ports increased over the quarter, explained mostly by the fact that much of the volumes traded in the second half of 2023 arrived only in the first quarter, somewhat behind schedule. These late deliveries have also helped sustain higher prices and price increases. Looking now at slide 13 at tissue performance. Demand for tissue paper showed positive dynamics at the start of 2024.
After a period of destocking in the first months of 2023, the first two months of 2024 saw growth of 2% in Europe. Navigator's international sales outside Portugal accounted for 71% of turnover. The Spanish market took the largest share, with 42% of our tissue sales, followed by France with 23%, and the U.K., which accounted for roughly 4% of sales. Finished goods represented 94% of our total, versus 87% in the first quarter last year. And reels, of course, represented the remaining 6% versus the 13% last year. In terms of client segments, at-home or consumer retail business has grown in importance, currently accounting for around 80% of our, while away-from-home and cash-and-carry account for the remaining 20%. In 2016, the split was actually 36% for consumer and 64% for the remaining segments.
Navigator's focus on innovation and differentiation continues to be welcomed by customers, with sales of mill brands growing by 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, strongly driven by our retail business, where growth of these brands stood at 25%. To be noted that versus 2006, mill brand doubled in volume, more than doubled in volumes. Dorival will now comment on the main developments in packaging.
Thank you, Nuno. After a challenging year in 2023, with a drop in business in several segments, the European market has started to show signs of recovery in 2024. Segments where we operate grew by 13% year-on-year. In this context, Navigator's packaging business enjoyed stronger and more consistent demand in the main segments, at the same time as a positive impact can already be seen from the move into several new segments, above all, within flexible packaging. The process of trials and market placement is still underway, consists of a large-scale approach to new clients, backed up by more than 250 market trials to date, in a commercial operation, 100% based on Navigator's own brand, gKraft.
In addition, with regard to the project for integrated production of eucalyptus molded pulp products, designed to replace single-use plastic and aluminum packaging in the food service and food packaging market, continues to progress, and production is planned to start up in the second half of 2024 under the gKraft BioShield brand. The new industrial facility will have production capacity for approximately 100 million units a year, making it the largest integrated unit with 100% eucalyptus fiber in Europe, moving into a fast-growing, high potential market. Operations will start with four products for the food sector, and the new mill offers production flexibility and scalability in order to exploit the various opportunities opening up for replacing plastic. Moving on to slide 15, to comment briefly on CapEx.
This first quarter, the CapEx investment reached EUR 41 million, as Fernando mentioned, of which approximately EUR 13 million were ESG investment, accounting for 32% of the total. The CapEx amount focused mainly on projects for decarbonization, production, capacity maintenance, plants modernization, efficiency improvement, as well as the structure and safety projects. The main projects include the new high efficiency recovery boiler in Setúbal, the new bleaching tower and washing presses in Aveiro Pulp Mill, the new fossil-free lime kiln in Figueira, using biomass as fuel, the conversion of the Setúbal lime kiln to burn biomass, and the new solar energy plant in Figueira da Foz.
As already mentioned last quarters, Navigator will continue with a high level of value-add investment in order to improve the environmental performance of our sites and implement our strategy for developing a packaging business, taking advantage of the EU next generation funds that is mandatory to be completed by the end of 2025. For eligible investments, there is an incentive rate of around 40%, thus Navigator will receive over EUR 100 million in grants, EUR 24 million already received, of which EUR 3 million this quarter. To conclude, these investments embrace our sustainability commitment, but also our innovation and diversification efforts to increase efficiency, improve and sustain our results. Fernando will comment on our financial position.
Thank you, Dorival. On slide 15, the debt maturity profile. Group debt profile remains conservative. Navigator has well balanced debt maturity, with 95% of total debt issued on a fixed rate basis, enable us to maintain low financial cost in a scenario of sharply rising interest rates. Also, it is worth noting that the company has a solid balance sheet of close to EUR 450 million of liquidity, both as long-term unused credit line and cash on hand, allowing us to pay for our raw pulp position from own funds.
After the disbursement resulting from the merger and acquisition operation mentioned, in addition to the long-term financing agreement with the European Investment Bank of EUR 150 million, which can be drawn in three tranches with maturities of up to 12 years, new long-term green financing operations have already been signed in order to maintain an average debt profile to create with balanced maturities and linked to sustainability goals. I will now hand over to João.
Thank you, Fernando. Turning to slide 17, please. Navigator is fully committed to sustainability, and in this slide, we highlight some of our 2023 numbers, dedicated not only to environmental, but also social and governance, business transformation, innovation, and diversification. My colleagues have mentioned during the presentation a few actions taken that demonstrate our continued work in all sustainability dimensions. In particular, Dorival just mentioned sustainable investments, but also my colleague highlighted our focus on optimizing consumption and innovation across all segments. We are committed to creating sustainable value for our shareholders and for society as a whole, leaving future generations a better planet through natural, recyclable, and biodegradable professional products and solutions that contribute to carbon sequestration, oxygen production, biodiversity protection, soil formation, and the fight against climate. Turn to slide 18, please.
The different initiatives and projects undertaken of the year include the Navigator Forest Producers Club , a pioneering and unique scheme for, in strengthening the relations with its partners and making an important contribution to a significant increase in Portugal's forestry yields and wood output by disseminating sustainable and active management practices in the country's woodlands. With the slogan, "Working together for the forest", Navigator Forestry Producers Club sets out to support our forestry sector's partners on a collaborative basis in implementing active and responsible forestry management. A technological platform is used to provide agent acceleration solutions, a central purchasing unit, and a wide range of benefits, in addition to direct access to programs supporting production, provision of forest management tools, training, and also co-investment opportunities.
By increasing the area of land in Portugal on which best forestry practices are applied and all certification requirements are complied with, the project will bring benefits that extend well beyond a stronger eucalyptus sector. It will also contribute to lower fire risk, less CO2 emissions, increased biodiversity with more conservation areas, and to a more dynamic economy in inland regions of Portugal. Since November 2023, the club has grown to more than 200 members, representing around EUR 400 billion and 845 direct jobs, creating value planned in the future. I will now hand over to Antonio.
Thank you, João. Let's please turn to slide 19 with a wrap-up of the Q1 results. It's not enough to underline that we again achieved solid results despite market volatility. In fact, the highest results for the first quarter. As mentioned, 2024 got off to a positive start, with a significant increase in demand for pulp, paper, and tissue. We registered strong order books and positive evolution in prices across all segments. Also, Navigator's coated woodfree paper prices increase has been implemented, and a significant drop in cash costs was achieved, thanks to purchase price negotiations and better consumption efficiency, especially for fiber, chemicals, and logistics. We also continue to proceed with our diversification plan.
This quarter, we launched an offer to acquire Accrol, a leading independent tissue converter in the UK, approved by Accrol shareholders, that will become effective this week by May 24. This acquisition will enable us to roughly double our tissue business. In the packaging segment, the molded pulp project proceeds as planned. In the meanwhile, we have again demonstrated the consistency of our conservative financial policies, maintaining our sustainability and investment commitment. Let's turn to slide 21 with a glass of new business—with a glance, sorry, of new business opportunities. Going forward, our sound financial position allow us to consider opportunities for debottlenecking in our core business, investing in efficiency and innovation, as already mentioned by Dorival. Navigator remains committed to a sustainability investment and innovation plans in all segments in which it operates.
As already mentioned, in the second half of 2024, we will start up an innovative unit for integrated production of molded eucalyptus cellulose, designed to replace single-use plastic packaging and aluminum in the food service and food packaging markets, with a startup scheduled, as mentioned, for the second half of this year. For a medium to long-term perspective, we are still looking into the attractiveness of investing in green fuels, both bio fuels in the shorter term and e-fuels or synthetic fuels afterwards.
Our R&D program is moving forward to explore and develop new bioproducts from eucalyptus woods, with a vast range of applications in different industries, such as the automotive sector, textiles, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, and the food industry, and actually even for the defense sector. In particular, in tissue business, this quarter, we took a step forward in our diversification strategy, as already mentioned. I will now hand over to Nuno to comment exactly this Accrol acquisition.
Thank you, António. Let's then turn to slide 22. As António just said, Accrol represents a step forward in our strategy for sustained expansion of our tissue business, namely in the Western European market. Accrol has a strong alignment and convergence of values with Navigator, namely with sustainability, product quality, and innovation and service level excellence. With a leading position in the UK private label market, with 12% market share in the overall consumer tissue market and 22% market share in the private label segment, and operating on an import parity market based on reels. This acquisition will enable us to grow, providing greater scale in the business and more diversification.
With two new tissues, with two new tissue segments, wet wipes and facials, as well as providing synergies with our tissue business. With the integration of Accrol, we anticipate consolidated turnover in the tissue business of around EUR 580 million, close to EUR 600 million, with the UK market expected to contribute to around 50% of total tissue turnover. I will now hand over to António, who will wrap up with a few words on the outlook.
Thank you, Nuno. Let's please turn to slide 24. The current geopolitical tensions, which have created a highly complex situation in its industrial and logistical operations, are leading to increased volatility in international markets, reducing, at the same time, visibility. That said, for Q2 2024, the favorable evolution of demand in pulp business is expected to continue despite uncertainties. The new capacity coming online, 2.6 million tons per year, is expected to have a relatively slow ramp up. Having said that, we expect a long cycle of above average pulp prices due to the increase in the industry's cost base in relation to pre-pandemic levels, as well as increased CapEx, both in new forest plantations and industrial development, and no further relevant increase in supply during at least a good part of three years.
In the paper segment in Europe, paper prices could benefit from a more balanced market structure that, combined with strong pressure on costs, is so far resulting in paper price increases. In fact, capacity reductions, restrictions on imports from outside Europe, which will continue both for logistical reasons and due to compliance with PEFC regulations, and structural increases in the cost base, will certainly lead to price increases, even in scenarios of reduced demand. To highlight that Navigator announced a price increase for all uncoated free papers by up to 5% in Europe, that has been fully implemented in the list prices since the beginning of April, and this will be followed in May and June by upward revisions of deals with fixed monthly quarterly price.
Additionally, as a result of the continued rise in pulp prices, it is likely that we will implement another increase during Q3. The second quarter started with stronger prices, but a slowdown in order book growth, which has 2023. Q2 started with stronger prices. However, the recent decrease in ordering flow, and above all, the seasonal fall down in Q2, and especially Q3, will bring likely volumes down.
But paper volumes as turnovers are expected to be clearly above 2023 levels. In the tissue segment, demand continues to rise at interesting levels, and growth of 2.6% is estimated for Europe during 2024. Tissue prices should continue to reflect evolution of input costs, example, for the pulp price evolution, and in fact, Navigator announced an 8%-10% price increase for May. In this segment, Navigator continues to leverage synergies driven by business growth, particularly with the acquisition of Navigator Tissue Arabia and growing with the new acquisition of Accrol.
Business diversification through tissue, operational flexibility between paper and pulp, market mix adequacy, production adjustment, and an efficient commercial strategy, combined with rigorous programs to control costs, as well as the company's strong financial position, have enabled us to deliver consistently strong and stable results in changing and volatile market context. We are confident that all these factors, in parallel with the continuous development of both our packaging and energy businesses, will continue to point to the resilience of Navigator's model. Thank you.
Thank you, António. This ends our presentation. We are now open for the Q&A session.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star five again. Please ensure that your device is unmuted locally before proceeding with your question. Our first question comes from the line of Enrique Parrondo from JB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. The first one, on the outlook for paper, specifically, on this slowdown that you're expecting, sequential slowdown from high levels into the second quarter and the remainder of the year. Maybe could you give us some color on what volume expectations and what sort of declines are you seeing? And what makes you so confident on price increases for the third quarter based on this declining order books? Second one is on Accrol acquisition. I know it's still early in the process, but you even mentioned in the presentation leveraged synergies for the group.
If my understanding is correct, I believe that these will be largely cost-focused, yet they will rely on CapEx investments to boost tissue mill production to later then be integrated into our Accrol converting capacity. Maybe you could give us some sort of guidance on CapEx expectations, if this is correct, and what sort of synergies could we expect? That will be helpful. And the final one, on financing. How should we think of 2024 and 2025 maturities, and your liquidity position, after the acquisition of the Accrol Group? Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you very much, Enrique, for your interest. For the sake of clarity, I'm going to repeat the three questions just to make sure that we fully understood them. Okay? So your first question is about uncoated woodfree paper slowdown. How do we see this slowdown? How confident we are with the volumes and the price increases that we are either implementing or considering to implement?
That's correct. Yep.
Your second question is about leveraging Accrol synergies, so the basis for those synergies, and you'd like to have some indication of a potential CapEx investment to produce mother reels to convert Accrol.
That's right.
The third question is about financing and how do we see our maturity position within 2024-2025 following Accrol acquisition?
That's right. Yes.
Okay. I'm going to give comments for the first two questions. I would like Quirino to complement the first, Nuno to complement the second, and I will ask Fernando to answer the third question. Regarding the first question, we actually see this slowdown. This slowdown is also somewhat related to the summer that is approaching, and there is always seasonality over the summer. Anyhow, we don't expect. There is, and we have insisted on that in previous calls and in this call once again, the visibility is shorter and shorter. So there is not a huge visibility that we can share, that we can share, and we of course cannot share guidance, but we can share with you what we see.
We anticipate that Q2 will not be volume-wise, materially different from Q1, but will be significantly above Q2 last year. And hopefully, prices on Q2 also will not be very different from what we have been achieving so far. Eventually, we have mentioned the implementation of another price increase in Q3. Why are we confident? Because the cost base of the industry has significantly increased. On the pulp, and we can touch that later on, we have already alluded to that during the call, on pulp, but also on paper.
So even in a scenario where the market is eventually not as buoyant in Q2 and in Q3 like it was in Q4 last year and Q1 this year, the pressure to increase prices through all the producers is increasing, so we are confident that the prices will go through as they have been going through, at least for us, and as we mentioned and have shown in this situation. Quirino, do you want to add something, please?
Well, just a note on imports that we didn't cover so far. So we continue to see a reduction in the imports volume into the UK, which also is part of the equation. So we see up to March, the latest figures is a reduction of around 12% in imports. So this comes with the trend from last year, so adds to the reduction of last year, and goes in the same direction of, let's say, creating better conditions for the price increase as well.
Thank you. Regarding Accrol, a couple of comments. Of course, this acquisition is different from the acquisition we did last year in Arabia, in terms of synergies. But we believe that we will have some operational synergies, and on top of that, you have two basic synergies that will be relevant. One is this is a listed company that we will obviously consider to delist, and on top of that, we have synergies by reducing the management of Accrol. Indeed, Accrol opens the opportunity and the possibility to develop.
... further mother reels capacity to convert into Accrol. There is no decision yet in the if and when to do this CapEx investment. And of course, there are synergies on this investment, also depending where we will do the investment. Investment can be done in Portugal or it can be done in one of the other two locations, where today we have tissue assets. So yes, it opens that possibility. Yes, this is something that that we will study, but we are far from taking a decision, and any kind of CapEx amount and synergies coming from this investment will very much depend on where the investment will be.
I mean, I just can reiterate basically what António said. In fact, as you said, it's too early yet to estimate synergies, so I will not contradict you, and I will not sharing any numbers at this stage. On cost synergies, yes, António mentioned two examples, the delisting of Accrol and the top management of course, that we can also make shorter in terms of our overhead of Accrol's business. In terms of the new paper machine that we can build, we know that Accrol sources entirely its mother reels. It does not have any production of paper machine, of paper, of mother reels. So it sources 100% of its needs. We of course, one possibility, as António mentioned, is to build a new paper machine, and this will have relevant synergies.
I can illustrate some of them. So, if we do it next to an already existing paper machine of ours, it will have natural synergies of operating next to an, to an existing machine. If we will do it integrated with, with one of our pulp mills, it will have the integration of, with, together with the pulp, operation, so not needing to dry the pulp, not to transport the pulp. If we will build it here, we will have a dedicated logistics operation, fully dedicated to the U.K. and to Accrol, which also we estimate will have relevant synergies.
We also understand that by having a fully dedicated paper machine, not only we will have a higher efficiency and outputs in our machine, but also we will be able to improve the output and the efficiency of our Accrol converting line, because we'll be able to source and to use wider paper. So there's a series of synergies that I just illustrated, associated with building a new paper machine, our paper machine together existing integrated with our pulp mills.
Finally, there's also some relevant potential synergies on the sales commercial side. Accrol is present in two segments that we are not, facials and wet wipes, and we will obviously try to explore that and see if we can have and find some cross-selling opportunities, related especially to these two, to these two product segments.
In what concerns financial, I think as you can see on slide 16, our average maturity is three years. We expect by the end of the year to be even above these three years, at least, 3.3 years, for instance. At the end of 2025, we expect to be in the same three years. I want to stress that, we have used our liquidity to buy Accrol. This means we didn't go to the market to add extra funds for that. Nevertheless, we have signed several agreements. One is already publicly communicated to the market since last December, this one with the European Investment Bank, with a maturity of 12 years. And we have recently signed, but not issued yet, more bank agreements, and between five and seven years.
This means that on our side, maturity is not an issue, liquidity neither, and in what concerns net debt to EBITDA ratio, we do not expect never to, in the next ten, in the next time to exceed the 2x, but we expect to be below that significantly.
Great, thank you very much.
Our next question comes from the line of Bruno Bessa from CaixaBank BPI. Please go ahead.
Yes. Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first focused on the paper price evolution and the gap to pulp. So, what we have been seeing is a relevant reduction in terms of the price gap between paper and pulp in Europe, already below the historical average. My question here is trying to understand if you see room for capacity shutdowns in the short term, and if there are any kind of rumors of the potential new shutdowns being announced over the coming quarters because of this. So this will be the first question.
The second question, if you could explain a bit the numbers of Accrol, because if I'm not wrong and i think that in 2024, there will be some sales decline when compared to 2023, and but margins will be significantly higher. I think that's from slightly more than 6% to around 11% on your projections. I would it would be interesting to understand what are the drivers behind this this evolution. And the the third question, it's true that margins apparently will improve significantly in in 2024, but they will still be according to my calculations, below those margins of Navigator's tissue business.
My question here is, if you believe that Accrol could reach those margins of Navigator's current tissue business in the short term, meaning before any additional CapEx to build a new paper machine to integrate to vertically integrate this company. Thank you very much. I don't know if you could hear my questions?
Yes,
Okay.
I'm trying to-
Okay, great. So sorry.
I'm trying to repeat them, just to make sure that we fully understand.
Sure.
The first question- Sure. -was about paper price evolution gap to pulp. You noticed the gap being reduced, and consequently, you'd like to know if we believe there is room for further capacity shutdowns in the short term, or actually, if there are some market rumors on that?
Correct.
Second question is about the numbers for Accrol. You believe that sales declined vis-à-vis 2023, but margins increased vis-à-vis 2023.
Correct. Difficult to explain.
The third question is that, although margins have improved in 2024, in your view, vis-à-vis 2023, we see that the bridge to Navigator's margins will be reduced without further CapEx.
That's correct.
Okay. So I will make introductory comments for the first three questions. I will ask Quirino to comment further on the first, and Nuno to comment on the second and the third. Regarding the gap, yes, indeed, the gap is linked with the fact that pulp, as a more nervous commodity, typically reacts quicker to increases and decreases of prices. And paper and tissue, probably even slower, they react slower than pulp. So it's normal that during at least a period of time, those margins sometimes are amplified when the cycle goes down, and are reduced when the cycle goes up. And yes, indeed, there are not only rumors, but I believe already an announcement of a shutdown in USA of one mill.
Actually, a mill that was already shutting down, and due to a very good demand in recent period, started up again. But the mill is likely non-competitive, and it will be again, shut down. Quirino will know the figures better than I do, but I think we are speak about short of 200,000 tons, 170,000-180,000 tons. Further than that, to be honest, I won't... And of course, the reduction that happened in Germany, the end of last year, beginning of this year, I don't have any further indications from the market of any capacity shutdowns, but probably Quirino has.
Well, I have the same information. So the gaps, yes, they tend to be amplified with the strong world moves on the pulp. Today's situation is not the first time it happened, such a narrowing of the gap, so we have seen it in previous cycles, like 2018 or even 2021, 2022, so this is not a new situation. Concerning the capacity reductions, indeed, the U.S. mill that António mentioned, indeed, 170,000 tons, reducing capacity in the U.S.
So balancing, this is an important contribution to balance the market over there. And in Europe, indeed, there was a shutdown in Germany, a relevant shutdown, particularly affecting a region, the central of Europe, and one specific product, folio sheets. It was relevant in that segment, but other than that, there is no news, and I would not do any comment on that.
Okay, regarding the second and third question, I will try probably to answer them more or less in conjunction. We cannot comment the numbers of Accrol for the year 2024. The year ended in April. Figures are not yet published and commented, so I cannot comment that. I can comment based on the first 6 months results that are public. Regarding margins, yes, it's normal that in 2024, margins are higher than in 2023, because in 2023, remember, Accrol is a converter. They buy mother reels. Mother reels prices are very much linked with pulp prices. Pulp prices have been reducing through 2023 and actually increasing again in the last part of 2023, early 2024.
So it's normal that they bought mother reels at a better price in the 2024 fiscal year than in 2023, so margins have consequently improved. As you know, this is very much linked to the gap between selling price of tissue, which is again, as we said before, more stable than the commodity price that is linked to the mother reels. Regarding the evolution of margins in Accrol, again, we cannot provide you any guidance, but do not forget, Accrol is a converter.
Even the best of converters, and we believe Accrol is one of the best, if not the best converter, has typically a margin that is somewhere in between 50%-100% smaller than a margin of an integrated producer with the tissue machines. So if we have a margin, let's say, of 16% for an integrated producer of tissue machines and converters, a converter in converting might have probably 8%-12%. So Accrol has the margins of an integrated, sorry, of a converter, not an integrated producer. So I think it's very difficult to anticipate that without further CapEx in a tissue machine, those margins will approach the margin of an integrated producer like ourselves.
You know, I just confirm what you said. I mean, one, one or two notes here. Yes, indeed, 2024 numbers in terms of sales top line will most likely be reduced versus 2023, but be aware that they will be much higher than what happened in 2022 and 2021, their top line. And again, as António mentioned, this is due to a better management, let's say, of the equation, price of reels, price of sale. What happened is that, we -- Accrol was able to have a wider margin and not passing through to downstream the gains it was able to achieve upstream in terms of mother reel sourcing.
So this margin, this optimization of margin in terms of price of sales versus price of mother reels, will be key, and we hope to continue to do a good management of this margin. And again, this is the number. Normal tissue EBITDA margins in converting are around 8%. Accrol will for sure will present soon higher margins than that. It actually had presented the most recent EBITDA margins were higher than 8%. As António mentioned, typical integrated. Integrated meaning not pulp, meaning paper machine and converting operations. EBITDA margins of these type of players are around 16%. You can only do that because you invested in CapEx and you are producing your own mother reels, your own paper.
So it is not possible to ask for a converting operation to present the same, EBITDA margins that you can have with a paper and a converting operations, as it is not possible to ask a tissue operation to present the EBITDA margin that a pulp operation, with a pulp operation integrated. So basically, this is it. Of course, if we follow what we have discussed earlier about, integrating and building a paper machine, we will for sure, increase the EBITDA margins of overall our tissue business.
Let me just add something, Bruno. I think we have mentioned that in previous calls, but I think for the sake of the discussions we are having, it might be interesting to remember. When we speak about an integrated margin of tissue of 16%, and when you compare this with an integrated margin of a graphic paper, coated and uncoated, you name it, of course, 16% on tissue in terms of EUR per ton of margin, is significantly above the same 16% in uncoated woodfree, just because the price in between uncoated woodfree or coated woodfree and tissue, is almost one to two. So the same percentage margin equates in much higher EUR per ton in tissue than in printing and writing papers.
Okay. That's, that's clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of António Seladas from AS Independent Research. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Most of them were already answered, so I just have two and one clarification. First one is related with your gross margin that went up - went down, sorry, sequentially. I guess that our costs, costs, probably wood costs. I don't know if you provide more color on this issue. That is one, the first question. Second question is related with pulp prices. Your sales pulp prices went slightly down, your average price from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, which is weird, because I guess that, well, we know that pulp prices went up, so can you explain the reason?
The last question is just a clarification: I understood that in coated woodfree volumes, should be more or less flat from the first to the second quarter. Thank you very much.
Okay. Let me try to rephrase your questions to make sure they were fully understood. The first question is about gross margin sequentially, Q4 2023, Q1 2024, where you notice a slowdown, and you'd like to see if this slowdown is related with the costs, namely, the cost of raw materials, namely, the cost of wood.
Exactly.
Your second question is that you believe, pulp prices, average pulp prices were slightly down from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, so you'd like to confirm, to confirm that. And your last question is to confirm as well, if we believe that volume-wise, and wood free will be more or less flat, Q2 to Q1.
Exactly. Thank you very much.
Let me try to give some quick answers and ask my colleagues to complement. So Quirino will complement one and three, and Nuno will complement two. The gross margin, the sequential reduction of gross margin in between Q4 last year and Q1 this year, was of course not related with prices, was of course not related to cash costs. Cash costs, and I think we mentioned that during the call, have been reduced sequentially, less than of course year-on-year. Year-on-year, we mentioned 9%-16%. Quarter-on-quarter, I'm quoting by memory, was 4%-5% reduction, with pulp more or less flat. And not, it was not also wood that has increased.
It was actually extraordinary results that affected EBITDA margin in Q4 last year, and they were not in Q1 this year. Regarding your pulp, your comment about pulp prices, I don't think the prices were slightly down, but Nuno afterwards will comment on that. I think they actually went up. Obviously, it's always difficult to compare when mixes are different, but I don't think at all they went down. Last comment or last question about uncoated wood free being more or less flat. Yes, we expect uncoated wood free in terms of volume, to be more or less flat vis-a-vis Q1. I'd like Quirino to comment question three, probably Fernando, question one, and Nuno, question two.
Starting with the uncoated wood free volume, yes, just to confirm that our expectations today for Q2 volumes is pretty much aligned with the volumes of Q1. Both actually in uncoated and packaging sales, both segments. Of course, volume-wise, uncoated is dominant. And actually, with the explanation we provided on price evolution, actually on the price side, we see an improvement on Q2 versus Q1, so we look at the same ballpark on the top.
Nuno
on the pulp price, I only have here now in front of me the net mill price. It's not exactly the net price, the net mill price is the price deducted from the logistical costs. But from Q4 last year to Q1 this year, it actually went up by 7%, EUR 37 per ton. So there's some... either we made some confusion in our communication or there's some confusion on your side, but prices went up EUR 37 per ton, 7% from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024.
Thank you, Nuno. Fernando?
Then the margin has in the last quarter was 36%. This quarter was 35%. It's not a big issue, but as António already mentioned, it's related with a non-recurring and it's related with some mentions that we received in the last quarter.
Just to follow up. So a non-occurring cost on the that was accounted on the gross margin, yes? On the costs.
Yes. It's related with the, with the extra time.
With operation.
With the period, yes.
Okay. Okay-
With temporary losses, that's why increase the EBITDA margin on the period.
Okay, thank you very much. Regarding the sales price, pulp sales price, maybe some confusion on my side. Thank you very much.
Sorry, I'm sorry, we missed your last comment. Are you so kind to repeat, please?
I was just saying that on the sales price, on pulp sales price, maybe some confusion on my side. Thank you very much.
Okay. Okay. Okay, thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, please press star five if you wish to ask a question. And we have a follow-up question from the line of Enrique Parrondo from JB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just two follow-ups. Well, one follow-up and another new question. On the question my colleague asked on the gap between pulp prices and paper prices in Europe, is it correct to think that we should look at this—I mean, I guess that we should look at this gap from a net pulp price perspective, right? And I've been doing some math. And if we look at pre-COVID levels, paper prices have been on average 70% above pulp, net pulp prices in Europe. Currently, it's done that, close to that level. Is that the right way of thinking?
And my second question would be on the molded cellulose capacity expected to ramp up in the second half of the year. What sort of contribution, economic contribution, can we expect from this business line on a recurring basis? Is there a unitary economics that we can track, or if you could give it some color on this, it would be helpful. Thank you.
Okay. So your first question is, you believe computing net versus net, the actual gap is not very different from pre-COVID levels, is what you say?
That's right. Yep, around 70.
Your second question is about if we are able to provide some color on in unitary contribution of the molded cellulose business.
That's correct. Yep.
Thanks. Those are actually very quick to answer. The first one, to be honest, we don't have here in front of us the historical data. I'm sure you have, so if you have the right discounts on net, which is always doubtful, if you know the exact net discounts, you can do the math yourself, and I'm sure you arrive to a conclusion better than ourselves. But it's not easy to track what are exactly the discounts or were exactly the discounts pre-COVID, during COVID, and today. But I agree with you, the gaps will be done more net-net than gross-gross. Don't forget as well, that peaks for paper is also not net, is gross, and we should take into consideration discounts on paper as well.
Nothing to do with the amount of discounts on pulp, but they are also subject to discounts. On molded cellulose, it's also very easy and quick to answer. We cannot provide you anything because we are first of all charting completely new territory. This is the first integrated unit of molded cellulose with eucalyptus-based pulp in Europe, is the largest one. Is a completely novel product for us and for the south of Europe. We just want to make sure that the advantages of sustainability that we provide are well priced by our customers. As mentioned before, this is a project that is relatively small for the size of our business, so it's an introduction to a new business segment that will hopefully help to reinforce our packaging strategy.
Great. Thank you.
There are no further questions from the conference call at this time, so I will move to the webcast one. Our question on the webcast is from Guilherme Domingos Neves, and he asked: Regarding your energy sales, going forward, if the price levels in the Iberian market remains at levels, the Q1 revenues is what we should expect? And another question is: What is the EBITDA impact of this fall in the energy levels?
Sorry, I'm not sure if I fully understood the question. Can you please repeat them?
Yes. Regarding your energy levels, going forward, if the price levels in the Iberian market remains at levels, the Q1 revenues is what we should expect? And the other question is: What is the EBITDA impact of this fall in the energy levels?
Okay, I will ask Nuno to comment, but please understand that we cannot give this kind of guidance. We can give you a generic view of the question, but we cannot give you any specific answer.
Okay. So basically, in fact, I don't know if you are aware, but today our sales are basically energy sales resulting from biomass cogeneration plants. Most of these have feed-in tariffs, so in fact, our average price of sales of energy sales should remain constant for the rest of the year. The fact that fuel prices, spot prices, energy are going down, they have actually a positive impact in our EBITDA levels. So, as I said, I repeat, our top line, our energy sales are mostly done out of feed-in tariffs with constant prices. They do not reflect spot prices. We have, of course, purchases of electricity in the market that, of course, are lower cost at this stage. They positively impact our EBITDA.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I hand the conference back to you.
This ends our session. Thank you for your time. As always, we are available for additional clarification through our usual contacts. Have a great evening.