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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 28, 2022

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Accor Q1 2022 Revenue Conference Call. My name is Jess, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. For the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only. However, there will be the opportunity to ask questions. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question at any time. If at any point you require assistance, please press star zero, and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand over to your host, Jean-Jacques Morin, Deputy CEO and CFO, to begin today's call. Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you very much. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Very happy to be with you today for this Q1 2022 revenue call. Before we start the presentation and for the sake of clarity, we will continue to provide the RevPAR variation by region versus 2019 for this year. This is to ease the understanding of performance, and notably because of some base effects. As for our revenue figures, we provide both the variation versus Q1 2021 and Q1 2019 in the documents. With that, and without further ado, let's move to the slide number three, where you've got the highlights of the quarter. Very happy to report that Q1 continues to show an improved business performance and momentum.

Q1 2022 RevPAR more than doubled versus Q1 2021, and the RevPAR versus Q1 2019 continues to improve sequentially quarter after quarter, to post a -25% number in Q1, which is what we had told you during the year-end results in February. Net unit growth reached 2.5% over the last 12 months, and we're gonna detail that a bit later on. All of that translated into a group revenue of EUR 701 million, which is an increase of 85% versus Q1 2021 on a like-for-like basis. What are the driver of this performance? This is the right part of the table that you've got in front of you.

Number one, there is a sustained rebound led by domestic demand, and this is domestic demand for both business and leisure, as we see through notable events. The second reason is that there is an acceleration of international travel as you see across the world, across the globe, the reopening of borders. There is one notable exception to that, which is China. The third reason is that we've got in our hand a strong pricing power across all region and all segments. We have today an average room rate, which is above the level of Q1 2019 on a like-for-like basis. This is stemming from three things. Number one, the continued pent-up demand, notably for luxury and lifestyle properties.

Number two, there is inflation in this world, as we all know, and we are in, well we work in a business where you can pass it through to business or leisure individuals, and you see that in the numbers. The last reason is, as business is coming back, you've got a progressive improvement of visibility, a so-called booking window, and that also leaves us a better capability to yield rates. If you move to the next page 4, what you've got here is how this RevPAR is declined by geography. As anticipated at group level, February and March have been more than offsetting the close of January. The pricing power remains strong, and the last four months have been above the 2019 level.

When you look at Europe more generally, Omicron largely affected Europe. Europe was the most affected geography by Omicron. The blip was short-lived and really was limited to the month of January. Already in March, occupancy in Europe is back to the level of Q4 2021. If you go into the definition of South Europe and North Europe, in South Europe, the Q1 RevPAR was minus 21% versus Q1 2019. The French province remains strong, and the gap between Paris and the province is getting reduced month after month because of the recovery of international business. In Northern Europe, Q1 RevPAR was minus 38% when compared to Q1 2019. The U.K. is at minus 15% and continues to be the driver for the region.

They have today a province RevPAR in the UK, which is at the Q1 2019 level. London, just like Paris, is seeing the gap between the capital and the province being reduced, again, because international traveler go back to the capitals. Germany was weak at -62%, and we all know that Germany was severely impacted by restrictions over Q1. Since then, those restrictions have been lifted. They've been lifted in April. If you look at the numbers for the month of April, you see the very strong rebound of Germany already. If you move to the second big region, which is Asia Pacific, the Q1 RevPAR is a sequential improvement of 5 points, and we end up at -43% versus Q1 2019.

The Pacific region, which is mainly Australia, leads the pack, and the Q1 was at -31% versus 2019. There, you've got the phenomenon of the reopening of the state border at the end of last year. Since February 2022, you add to that international border reopening. That will continue to fuel the recovery. The rest of China had a Q1 performance that was a pullback because you end up with -42%. This is all driven by the Omicron outbreak in China compounded by zero COVID strategy in China. Southeast Asia, the Q1 RevPAR is kind of stable at -55%, but there again, the situation is getting better. I'll give you an illustration.

If you look at places like Singapore, Bali, Vietnam, Thailand, they are now all reopening with limited restriction. Business, because of that, will come back, should come back. There are two gating items. Number one, you've got to be able to find a flight to get there. The international air flight traffic recovery is a gating item. The second thing is that some Asian tourists are so far not allowed to travel to those destinations. As an example, China is a good illustration. Moving to the fourth region, which is IMEA, Middle East, Africa, Turkey, you see here, Q1 RevPAR, which is an improvement of 3 points versus Q4, and which ends up at 8% above 2019, Q1 2019 level.

This is very much driven by prices. In UAE, Q1 2022 is above Q1 2019, and there is the boost of the Expo 2020. In the rest of the year, the FIFA World Cup, Football World Cup in Qatar, which is gonna occur in Q4, will be an additional boost for the 2022 performance. If you move to Saudi, which is the second big element in the performance of IMEA, you've got here finally a resumption of pilgrimage to holy cities for both international and domestic travelers. That is obviously boosting the numbers. Ramadan in April is going very well, and you will have some pilgrimage, the Hajj pilgrimage, in July, and that will also continue to full recovery, to fuel recovery in Saudi Arabia.

The last region is Americas. You see here a 5% RevPAR sequential improvement to reach a level of -14%. And again, here, a good pricing power. Brazil is in fact seeing a nice recovery. And North America, despite Omicron, also benefited from a nice business travel on top of a strong leisure demand that was already pre-existing. All of that explains why America has been doing well in Q1. If we move to the next page, we talk now about net unit growth. We mentioned the last 12-month net unit growth at 2.5%, and we always measure the last 12 months of performance. In fact, in Q1, the openings were limited. It was a soft quarter.

It's usually a soft quarter, but this was compounded this year by the tough situation I described in China with the COVID outbreaks. On the other hand, the churn in Q1 was well in line with historical level. That was a positive. As for the pipeline, we are more or less at the level of the end of last year at 212,000 rooms. The conversion that we've been disclosing to you every quarter were quite high at 67% of the Q1 openings. Again, on a basis, which was a small number because the Q1 opening was a smaller number than usual. After a soft Q1, you will see, we will see acceleration starting the next quarter.

That's why we feel confident to renew our net unit growth guidance at 3.5% for 2022. If we go now in the detail of the revenue by reporting segments, which is the slide 6 of the deck, you see the group revenue at EUR 71 million that we had mentioned before. The like-for-like decrease at -23% is slightly better than the RevPAR decrease of 25%. The difference is related to the hotel asset, as you can see on the table, with benefiting from favorable exposure of being skewed towards Pacific. For hotel service, the like-for-like revenue growth more than double versus Q1 2021, and is down 25% versus Q1 2019.

The decrease is bang in line with the 25% RevPAR drop that, we had before mentioned. If you split hotel services between M&F and S&O, you see that M&F is down 33%. I'll detail that in the next slide. S&O is only down 21%, so less than M&F, and this is largely explained by the fact that SO is skewed toward the U.S. and you had better activity in the United States. In North America, I should say. Hotel Services, the like-for-like revenue growth was 52% versus Q1 2021, and down 19% versus Q1 2019. Again, here it's predominantly Australia, and the Mantra business. Montreal is very strong on the Gold and the Central Coast, which is the Queensland.

As it was also summer, and as people were finally free to travel within Australia, they had a good season, very good season, which is why the numbers are what you see. Moving to page seven, you've got the drill down here on the M&F portion of the Hotel Services business. Explanations are very much standard with what we've been explaining for many quarters. M&F revenue doubled with the activity recovery as you would expect. By region, the variation reflects the activity recovery in that region with occupancy level above 40%, which is kind of the rule of thumb threshold for going back to incentive. You see the incentive gradually recovering across the board, so the numbers are better than what they were on average last year.

This is no different than what we had been telling you in the year-on-year projections or questions regarding incentives. Versus Q1 2019, M&F revenue decreased by 33% on the back of the RevPAR decrease. This is the typical disruption that you find because of the incentives in management contracts. That said, by the way, when business comes back, an opportunity with additional operating leverage. If you move to page eight, which is the takeaway, and to close this presentation, I mean, the positive booking trends we see in April confirm the solid underlying momentum going into summer. We will have a strong summer, and we will see the RevPAR continue to improve sequentially.

Since Q2 last year, every quarter has been better and that is not to stop. The second point is we've talked about domestic travel. The domestic travel will be back in 2022 to the 2019 level. It confirms the eagerness that people have got to go and be back in the hotel when it comes to domestic travel. As for international travel, there is more delay here, as we all know, and it will continue. It is catching up. I have been explaining that. It is catching up with Asia, which is lagging, so it will take more time. Domestic travel back to 2019 level and international travel will be later.

On developments, I've said it, but wanted to close with that. We reconfirm the 3.5% net unit growth. With that, I close this presentation and I'm ready to take all your questions.

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypads. Please ensure your line is unmuted locally, as you will be advised when to ask your question. Once again, it's star one if you would like to ask a question. The first question comes from the line of Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Good afternoon, Jean-Jacques. Questions please. First, it would be quite helpful to know where March was, if we're able to sort this out for the latest month and maybe give us a feeling for what April is running in terms of RevPAR for those. Secondly, on the commentary about domestic demand recovering at the end of the year and international later, is it too simplistic for us to sort of to infer that you think RevPAR will still be negative in the fourth quarter? I mean, it doesn't sound like it, but sort of maybe that's the inference from those comments. Then just on the drop in the pipeline and the sort of lack of rooms growth, which you're putting down to China and Asia.

Could you talk a bit more about that please, 'cause obviously the restrictions are still going on in the second quarter. It's just the China issue or is there any more sort of weakness elsewhere in the region or indeed elsewhere in the world in terms of construction delays? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I mean on the numbers, Jamie, I think I am not gonna start to disclose RevPAR month by month, but you just, you know, you use STR and you use our mix, and I think you've got a very good idea of how much April is running better than the month of March. The numbers have been significantly getting better. Again, here, just by looking at the STR weekly publication, you see that extremely well. On your question about China and the developments in China, I mean, this is obviously a very good question.

Today when we turn around and talk to our team on the ground, you know, they do confirm that they are able to, you know, do the forecast that the budget that they had been giving us a couple of months before. At this juncture, I've got no reason to think differently. I think the difficulty with the China region is the violence of the variation. You know, I mean, they decide to shut down Shanghai and suddenly 70 million people that are confined for weeks. They are talking, as you know, about Beijing and it's the same discussion and not to talk about all the many cities that have got millions of inhabitants, and that are in the same situation.

I think what needs to be followed through with China is whether the situation from where we are continues to negatively evolve, and then, you know, obviously it will have an impact on the business or whether it will be just like what we saw last year, which is there is a very bad quarter and a very bad month, I should say. Then the next month is a big positive because again, everybody goes back to business. That we don't know today.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Sorry, just on that. It's just the China situation at the moment, there's no other sort of delays elsewhere that you're seeing?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

No, we don't.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Sorry, the middle question was just about the demand recovery by the end of the year for the domestic sector and international lagging. I mean, does that mean you think RevPAR will still be down in the fourth quarter compared to 2019?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yes. The answer is yes. The answer is most probably with what we know. I would say the reason for why I don't want to give any forecast on RevPAR is that just think about the last time we talked, which was February. In February, everybody was so much frightened by the Omicron and what the Omicron had done to the numbers in the months of January. Since then, I mean, every month you've been improving the RevPAR by more than 10 points. You know, February versus January and March versus February and April versus March and so on and so forth. The speed at which the numbers can fluctuate is enhanced. I think nobody was probably in his right mind foreseeing that speedy recovery of the RevPAR.

I think we've got to keep that in mind. I give you the answer for the Q4, trying to be helpful with what I know, but again, here, I think we may be surprised by the speed at which international recovers, you know, like I was mentioning, places, like Bali being reopened. Today, the gating item is not so much the fact that you cannot go to the place than it is the fact that, you may not find a ticket to get there. There is not enough airline capacity to get there at this stage. I would think that the airline companies, if they see the bonanza and the capability to do again a good business, will find some means in order to reopen and suddenly, we will be surprised.

The China situation is in fact unchanged versus what we knew. China is important in the Asian business. China has basically been closed all of last year. Today, I don't think anybody can foresee when China will reopen. All the statements that are done by the Chinese government are clearly stating that they are not changing the zero COVID strategy policy. As long as that doesn't change, you will have the kind of fluctuation, very intense, in fact, volatility that we've seen on our business.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Quite clear. Thank you very much.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Bilal Aziz from UBS. Please go ahead.

Bilal Aziz
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Good evening and thanks for taking the question. Pretty, hopefully, quick one from myself. Firstly, what percentage of M&F were incentive fees in the quarter please, Jean-Jacques? Then secondly, tied to that, you know, you obviously walked us through in quite a lot of detail about the full year that you expect in M&F you know somewhere to be 20%-35% for the full year. How does the performance in Asia Pac potentially impact your thoughts around that range this year? How important is Asia Pac effectively for the incentive? Then lastly, just on the cost savings, you know, just when we start thinking about the drop-through for 1H. I think you threw another EUR 90 million for the full year. How does that phase between 1H and 2H this year, please? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Okay. Taking the question. On the incentive, you may recall the numbers. The series of numbers was 15% in 2020 for the full year, 21% in 2021. The number for 2022 is 23%. So it continues to improve gradually. In terms of Asia, no, I don't think Asia has got a specific effect on that. In fact, you may recall that Asia was doing quite well last year in terms of incentive because some of the hotels were full because of quarantine business. You know, fundamentally their business was good at profitability level because they were full, even if the top line, i.e.

The price that you practice was not as high as the one that you would have practiced in normal businesses. No, there is no correlation here. The one thing on incentive, I'll say one thing that I have said many times, but I'll say it again. The incentive curve is not a linear function. The incentive curve is a sum of specific deals, hotel by hotel. You've got some I would say step up effects that you know are difficult to predict. It's not as if your RevPAR moved by 20%, your incentive is moving by 20%. Your incentive may grow faster or may grow slower, depending on which the hotels are impacted by the retail that we've been discussing.

Your last question again was? I didn't catch it well.

Bilal Aziz
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Just on the cost savings, the phasing.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah.

Bilal Aziz
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

for this year.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah. On the saving there is everything is top line. There is no surprise here. We'll give you an update each one as we typically do when we cover the full P&L. I had not planned to do that in this call because this is our annual call. You know, the EUR 200 million is the EUR 200 million. The effect for the full year that we provided to you is the effect for the full year. I'm not gonna give you a disclaimer or more than that.

Bilal Aziz
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Richard Clarke from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Hi, thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. Three if I may. Just to comment on the very last slide about the acceleration of openings that you've seen in Q2 thus far. Has that been sort of broadly across the different regions or focused anywhere in particular? Does that mean we can expect Q2 to look a bit more normal than maybe Q1 did? Second one, I think there's been three sort of sizable deals that you haven't mentioned in the quarter. The Jo & Joe deal in China. I think AccorInvest sold a pretty sizable chunk of hotels to B&B Hotels in France, and there were some Travelodge wins, as well.

Just wondering if there are any of those particularly material. You haven't mentioned them in the release, so maybe they're not, but anything you could bring out there. Normally at the H1 results, you would give guidance. Can we expect guidance? What would be the triggers for you giving us the sort of full year guidance at the H1 results at this point?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah. I'll start with the last one. The first guy who would love to be able to give you guidance is me, trust me. Because it would mean that I am back to something which is much more normal. I would say that everything that we've been seeing since the beginning of the year goes in that direction. Frankly, there is a normalization which is faster than the one that I would have thought, and notably, because in December when we were working on all of that and doing our budgeting, I mean, we were just in the midst of Omicron, and it was supposed to be we don't know what. Our target has not changed versus what I have said in February.

IMEA, we would like to go back to some guidance on EBITDA, just like we do it at the end of H1. We'll see what develops between now and July. This is what we would like to do. In terms of those three deals that you mentioned. Yes, you're right. I mean, the Jo & Joe one is a good deal. It's a deal that we were able, in fact, to get and beat some of our core competitors, so we're happy to have that. It's a deal on a very long period of time.

It's 1,300 hotel, but it's on 30 years, so you and I have got some time before we discuss the value forecast. It is exactly where we want to be, which is, it is exactly the kind of you know direction from a strategic perspective that we want to do, i.e., having some partner in order to develop our product line in China because this is in our experience and the experience with Huazhu, the right way to go and proceed. Jo & Joe is a very good product in lifestyle for the market as they are in China. Very happy about that. We will talk about it more and more as things will become concrete.

At this juncture, this is, as you will understand, very, very early. AccorInvest and Covivio. Yes, you're right. There is a portfolio that AccorInvest had the possibility to basically stop. They had a lease which was coming to an end, and they decided not to renew the lease. To put everybody on the same level of information, we are discussing about 2,500 rooms, 2,600 rooms. It's kind of the number. When I was giving you the 3.5% net unit growth, this is obviously something that I have taken into account. Travelodge remains limited. I mean, it's a couple of hotels, and there is...

It's a limited number of hotels that you're right. Again, here, it's one of the things that we've done during Q1.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Maybe just a quick follow-up. So did you... The B&B deal, the Covivio deal, was that-

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Did you know that when you set the guidance for the full year results, you're actually guiding that the gross openings are going better, and your sort of attrition has come up as well?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

No, no. I am a good controller, so I did know.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Okay. Just a question on the acceleration of openings in Q2. Is that back to normal levels now?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah. The answer is yes. Sorry, I forgot that that was your question. Yeah. Well, the Q1 is just, I mean, when you look at development in a given quarter, things can happen. What you've got here is exactly a situation of a point which is not representative of what we think the development business is gonna be for the rest of the year. The Q2 number should be significantly better.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jaafar Mestari from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Jaafar Mestari
Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Hi. Good afternoon. One of the other announcements of the last few months, this central reservation system that you're going to do in-house. I know you had hinted at that at the fuller presentation, but we got a few more details. Just wondering whether this comes with extra OpEx, extra CapEx that are material enough that you're gonna have to guide. More fundamentally, of course, getting a good system is important, but doing it in-house doesn't allow you to move the cost variability to a third party like you were initially gonna do with Sabre and with a pure transactional business model.

Are you happy with the fact that you're gonna have a much more fixed IT-based system compared to competitors who have managed to push that to a provider?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah, no. This, there is no big numbers attached to that CRS strategy. It's basically the amount that we would have spent but anyway that we're gonna spend and work in a much closer relationship with D-EDGE. I mean, D-EDGE is a great company. It's one of those new businesses that we have been discussing, flat booking, you may recall. We will get back to you, and we did that. We started to hint at that during the annual presentation, exactly for that. We give you updates, but there is here a jewel, and we're gonna capitalize on that jewel. It's one of those very, very few people that can connect, in fact, a CRS with more than 500 partners, such as premises around the world.

It's a team of 300 very skilled IT engineers. When COVID came, you're right, we looked at what we were about to do with Sabre, and we figured out that this strategy was probably a much smarter strategy in terms of getting us through the next years, and in fact, building on things that we had in-house versus trying to go and do something which was much more difficult and much more costly to develop. That's, I think, why we went through the announcement, and we are very happy with what we see from D-EDGE. It's helping to scale it because they were doing that already for about 12,000 properties.

We bring our 5,000 properties, so it starts to be a very nice base of customers. You know, the fixed versus variable. I think the other thing in that solution is that it's a cloud solution, so we will get the benefit in terms of viability to be on the cloud solution and not anymore on the mainframe, you know, hardware, big server type of approach. I think that from that perspective also we will get a better answer to what crisis may be. All in all, it's a less costly solution than the one that we wanted to do with Sabre.

I think it makes a lot of sense to take into account what we know today and what has been happening in the last two years.

Jaafar Mestari
Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

All right. Thank you. Very clear.

Operator

The next question comes from the line Alex Brignall from Redburn. Please go ahead.

Alex Brignall
Travel and Leisure Analyst, Redburn

Hi. Thanks. Just one from me actually, please. The signings, you don't disclose them. They sort of can be implied a little bit. They look like they were relatively low. Q1's always a quiet quarter. Is there anything there on how sort of the pipeline of signings to go into pipeline looking for the rest of the year? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

No, I mean, your computation is right. I mean, Q1 was a bad quarter in terms of development. Let's call it what it is, either in terms of openings or in terms of signings. The churn was controlled because you guys have been asking many times the question on will you see the churn deviate because of the way the world has been going for the last two years with the COVID. I think on that portion, we had a good quarter, but both on openings and on signings, it was a weak quarter. Now if you go and do a little bit of a trend analysis, you will find out that Q1 is never a very good quarter, and that in

There is always some volatility quarter to quarter in those numbers, which is why I insisted on saying that Q2 will be back to what the history has been showing you. That overall in the year, you know, the number is 3.5%, that we don't see China as impacting those numbers, checking with the team, and we do that, you know, extremely regularly. I think, you know, there is nothing here that we see in any part of the world that would make us think differently. You know, we are living in that crazy world into which there is a lot of geopolitical instability, call it Ukraine, call it China, after COVID.

If you look at the numbers, as I have it in my hands, everything is fine. There is no cancellation. The backlog, as I see it for the coming months, is super strong. I have no direction, which are telling me that the instability that you may see may impact going forward the flow of international traveler or domestic traveler. To the contrary, you see the geography reopening one after the other and very significantly in the first quarter of this year. That's what I mean, you know, I talk with what I have in my hands, which are facts.

Alex Brignall
Travel and Leisure Analyst, Redburn

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Operator

Before we go to the next question, please be reminded that if you would like to ask a question, it's star one. The next question comes from the line of André Juillard from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

André Juillard
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. First question was about the segmentation. Could you give us some more color about the kind of segment you are seeing? You have mentioned domestic and international expected to accelerate, but could you give us some more color about niche segments and different ones? The second question is about the side revenues. Are you seeing a real acceleration in the other revenues that you are expecting from some workplaces and so on? Last question about M&A. Do you see any distressed assets coming on the market and some opportunities which could make sense for you? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I'll do it in reverse order because then I'm sure I remember at least one question. On M&A, the answer is no. There is no distressed asset. I mean, this crisis is something which is amazing, because we've been discussing that and it's still confirmed by the data at the end of Q1. The level of bankruptcy is still way below the level of bankruptcy of Q1 2019. In 2022, whether you look at it at France level or you look at it at European level, these are the two stats that I have. There is a level of bankruptcy which is probably 30% below what it used to be. I am not seeing any distressed asset.

M&A is not what we focus on currently. What we focus on currently is making sure that we save as much on the rebound. You've seen the rebound is an animal which is extremely powerful because it accelerates quite a lot. We just want to make sure that we don't lose that opportunity. Up to now, we've been doing very well, and we plan to continue to do that. On the S&O revenue, it's a discussion for another time.

It's too early, André, but we will get back to you with that at one point in time during the year to give you something which is more palatable on what you call the other revenue, which is everything we can do around the workplace. On MICE is about what? 15% of what we do. I would say we are probably 40% below what we used to be in the same quarter in 2019. That would be kind of my hunch. You know, somewhere between 40%-45% on MICE is probably what I would say, but it's not totally changing the needle. What matters the most currently is the return of international traveler.

If what we've been seeing over the last month can be confirmed, i.e., France here remain open with limited tests, because frontiers can be open, but then you've got tests which are making it impossible to nevertheless travel because you've got to stay two weeks or whatever in quarantine, and so it doesn't work. If you can go for what Asia is trying to push ahead today, and if you can get some of the airline capacity lined up on that, I think that will have a very significant effect to our numbers. We're not yet there. I think that's what I would say on the segment question that you are asking. Is that answering your question, André?

André Juillard
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Yes, thank you. Maybe one additional one, but about the sensitivity that you've been communicating the past few years. Could you give us some idea of the expected sensitivity for 2022?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

In fact, this is a revenue call. I'm gonna be very focused because that's what pays off in business. I'll talk. You know what? I think I won't talk to you anymore about sensitivity because if I go with what I answered to one of your colleagues, which is if I am able to give an EBITDA guidance, I don't think we'll ever have to talk again about sensitivity. The sensitivity was one way to guide everybody at the time that nobody knew what the risk are. As soon as I start to get a better idea of what the risk are, then I don't have to go through that whole with all the limits of doing those kind of rule of thumb, and I can give you an absolute number. We'll talk about it in July, André.

André Juillard
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Okay, wonderful. Thank you very much.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Bruno de La Rochebrochard from Bryan Garnier. Please go ahead.

Bruno de La Rochebrochard
Equity Analyst, Bryan, Garnier & Co

Thank you. Good evening, everyone. Your exposure to Russia and Ukraine is very limited. Can you confirm today that until now there are no impact on bookings? Also, would you mind to split the bookings between business and leisure? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yes. I mean, the short answer is absolutely. There is no effect. I mean, again, remember, Russia and Ukraine is like 1% of what we do, so it's very, very limited. As I said, there is nothing in the number that we can see that relates to that crisis at all. That's the short answer. In terms of business versus leisure, the 60%-40% rule is a good proxy for 60% business, 40% leisure, is a good proxy for what the group has been doing in terms of mix.

Bruno de La Rochebrochard
Equity Analyst, Bryan, Garnier & Co

Okay, thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Sure.

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue, so I will hand the call back to your host for some closing remarks.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Okay. Listen, it's looking forward, in fact, to be with you at the end of July to discuss the H1 performance. Thank you for being with us. You know, very happy to be able to report that positive momentum to all of you. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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