Accor SA (EPA:AC)
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Earnings Call: H2 2022

Feb 23, 2023

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Bonjour, good morning, everyone. Thank you for being connected with us. Jean-Jacques Morin is on my right. We're going to be spending the next 90 minutes until 10:00 A.M. Paris time, on announcing and sharing with you great results for 2022. Extremely solid. Very happy to go through it. Happy probably, and I'll do it now, to tell you that I guess we are enjoying a nice month of January in terms of activities, and likely looking forward for 2023, which is going to be an even better year of 2022. I'm going to start with a first slide, which is a bit 20,000 feet altitude.

I wanted to show you, in between the kind of bearish environment, which was the case in October 2022 when it comes to inflation, the same person, probably as economist in the world, what they have said in January 2023, which is three months, 90 days lag. Clearly, when it comes to inflation is still there, but no longer rising. The fear was probably to go much higher than where we are now. You see it for the USA, it's still 50 basis points from 3.5%-4%, but it is stabilizing in Europe at 5.7% and in the world between 6.5% and 6.6%.

You've seen over the last 20 days, a lot of raw materials, steel, copper, being sharply down for the last 45 days, and some of them being looking to be lower than 2019. On the GDP growth, which you have on the right side, it is a more bullish environment in terms of outlook with the USA gaining 40 basis points from 1% to 1.4%, Eurozone coming out from stagnation from 0.5%-0.7%, and the world enjoying 2.7%-2.9%. You know I'm traveling quite a bit, and when you go to Singapore today, when you go to the Middle East and many other places, I must say they have a very robust environment.

Go a bit deeper on hospitality at large. There's two things, which are very different in nature, which is of no surprise, but we need to pay attention to this. On the left side, is the domestic travel. Many of you know, that I guess 2022 have enjoyed a very nice V-shape rebound with the numbers at the end of the year, which is actually higher than the performances of 2019. Most of it being leisure, and you've seen the numbers in America, you've seen the numbers in Southern Europe for Accor and France, which is clearly higher than 2019 and are probably looking forward to be record number in terms of domestic travel for the years ahead. That is not the case for international travel. It is still 37% down versus 2019.

You know that number of 1.5 million travelers at the end of 2019. I just want to remind any of you that part of that 1.5 billion travelers, sorry, you have two large populations. The two largest emitting markets in terms of numbers of travelers happens to be America and China. You have roughly 150 million Americans traveling outside of America, and you have the same 150 million Chinese traveling outside of China in 2019. Guess what? Many of the Americans are back. Almost 80% of that 150 have been traveling in the 2022 environment. Zero Chinese travelers have been traveling over the last couple of years. That is the news of the last 45 days.

It's very likely we're gonna see, and it's probably gonna go sequentially, a lot of that 150 million people from China traveling again. It's been starting, and we've been acknowledging it, in Southeast Asia, in the hotels of Accor. Remember, 80% of Chinese, when they do travel, they stay in Asia. They go to Hong Kong, they go to Korea, they go to Australia, they go to Southeast Asia. We've been missing them for the last few years, and we are very happy to see them back, which is why that -37% may be a very different number moving forward at the end of this year. That's what it is in terms of GDP, hospitality. I give the floor to Jean-Jacques on the Accor numbers, and then I'll get back to you on the conclusion.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you, Sébastien. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Very happy to be with you for these results, which are, as you will see, nice results. As we did for all the 2022 presentation, we're gonna provide RevPAR variation versus 2019 to ease the performance and avoid base effect. This is the last time we'll do that. Without further ado, let's go to the highlight of the financial year. I mean, it's a momentous milestone because we end up with an activity in 2022, which is above 2019.

The RevPAR is basically 2% above 2019, and we end up the year very strongly with a Q4 RevPAR, which is in fact ahead, slightly ahead of the Q3 RevPAR, which we all knew was on the back of a great summer, notably in Europe. Moving to the second item here, which is the net unit growth. The last 12 months unit growth finishes at 3.2%. The zero-COVID policy in China did affect the domestic market, but it also affected globally the supply chain with a collateral effect on other regions. Nevertheless, our pipeline, Accor pipeline continued to grow.

We ended up at 216,000 room from 214 last year, there is a sustained interest from hotel investors. The conversion, which is a nice weapon when capital may be scarce, continued to be extremely high at 47% for the full year. The recovery translated into a global business volume of EUR 23 billion, which is 5% above pre-pandemic levels. The business volume includes the room, but also includes F&B. Moving to the right part of the table where you see, in fact, the detail of the result. Revenue is at EUR 4.224 billion, which is 80% increase versus financial year 2021 and 4% plus versus 2019. The EBITDA reaches a level of EUR 674 million. We were basically at zero last year.

It's a nice jump. We are, in fact, beating the consensus by about 5%, the high end of the consensus, which we provided at being somewhere between EUR 610-EUR 640 back in October. The reason for that is Q4, as I said, ended up being extremely strong. You know, the dynamic into which we enter into 2023 is an extremely good momentum. All this profit falls nicely into cash. We've got a recurring free cash flow which ended up at EUR 373 million. This brings us to conversion level between EBITDA to cash, which is very much what we had in the years pre-COVID.

We are at about 55%, which is very much the norm around the businesses and very much what we used to do in 2018, 2017, 2020, 2019. Nice through of profit into cash. If we move to some more details of the top line by geography, what you see here, and you see that very well with the orange bar, is that the pricing power has remained extremely strong over the last quarters. We end up Q4 at prices which are 25% above 2019, like for like. Going into each of the region, South Europe, Q4 is 12% above 2019. It's a slight improvement versus Q3, as you can see.

What is nice now is we add the recovery in South Europe that came from Provence, but nowadays, Paris and Provence are at the same level, and they're and that translate, in fact, the return of international and European, travelers to Paris. Northern Europe. Northern Europe I'm not responding to phone calls. Northern Europe, Q4 was 5% above 2019. There was a slight slowdown in Northern Europe, and this is due to Germany. The Germany RevPAR is slightly below 2019 level, and this is due to less events and lower attendance. You know that the business in Germany is very much driven by fair and convention, and the German economy is one of the economy that suffer the most in Europe.

However, the U.K. did very well and remained extremely strong and with very good performance between Provence and London, and this despite the rail strikes, which at one point in time could have been an issue. If you move to Asia Pacific, nice recovery. Q4 RevPAR remains negative, but you can see the curve and the speed at which things are progressing. Pacific, which is Australia, remains resilient. It has been resilient for many quarters. Greater China saw a deceleration, so you don't see an improvement in the number Q4 versus Q3 in Greater China. We all know that the zero-COVID policy is now over, and you will see the effect of that change in the numbers of 2023.

Notably, in fact, because you know that the easing of the restriction on the Chinese traveler has only really started in 2023, and we see that in the numbers of January and February. The one thing which is remarkable that I would quote is that the domestic business in China, in the Chinese New Year period, which was in January, is at 90% of what it used to be in 2019. You see there that the domestic has recovered, is recovering, and that the next phase is the one that Sébastien mentioned, which is those 150 million of Chinese basically flooding into Asia as they would do.

As a reference, they constitute about 50% of the business of any of their Asian counterparts as the Chinese travel largely first throughout Asia to the tune of about 90%. Southeast Asia is also recovering. I mean, we saw that already in the Q3 result, sorry, with Singapore and Thailand, this is continuing. I mean, again, Japan is now open, all of that is going in the right direction. That means that Asia Pacific ends up negative in Q4 but will be a springboard for upside in 2023. EMEA, which is the Middle East, Africa, Turkey, you see the numbers. They are amazing RevPAR, 73% in Q4. There is clearly here an effect, which is the Qatar Soccer World Cup.

This has obviously boosted the Qatar number, but this is wider as some of the travelers, in fact, were staying in UAE, were staying in Saudi. Between the Dubai, you know, World Conference at the beginning of the year, the Expo, and at the end of the year, the soccer, you know, Qatar game, you can see how wonderful the performance of EMEA has been with a very strong pricing power. America has been very much recovering, as we all know, from our peers. South America is doing extremely well. In the Americas, you've got North America and South America. South America, for us, is a significant amount of hotels, more than 400. Here, again, you see a very strong pricing power. All of that translate nicely.

You move to the next page, which how we translate into revenue. Fundamentally, what's remarkable here is that both hotel services and hotel asset end up with a growth of the revenue versus 2019. It's spread across. Accor revenue, at EUR 4 billion 224, is in fact, in reality, an 80% number on like-for-like basis, but a 92% on reported numbers because it's boosted by the US dollar strength versus other currency. You've got the details in appendix. If you look at hotel services, you see the 5% increase versus 2019. Hotel services, in fact, made of two, segment, as you know, M&F, which I will detail after, and service to owner.

Service to owner did benefit from the activity in Qatar, so is showing a very nice increase of 8% versus 2019. As for hotel asset, you know that this is predominantly Australia, and it includes the Mantra business and to a smaller extent, Brazil. Mantra continued to benefit. As I was mentioning before, quarter- after- quarter, they've been doing good. They basically stopped the zero-COVID policy long time ago, and since then, they're having, sorry, a nice ride. It continued to be driven by the leisure demand in coastal area. The Australian cities are recovering but are still impacted by the lack of international and corporate guests. Again, here with the opening of China, with more airlines going into Asia, i.e.

the capacity being basically recreated, those numbers will continue to improve. If you move to the next slide, which is giving you the detail of M&F. That's the management and franchise, M&F. You've got it by geography. Versus 2019, you see that it is still a little bit behind 1%, but the explanation remains the same over time. It's the residual lack of the incentive that we get from our owners, for managing the properties. You've got two places where you are behind, 2019, which is Asia-Pacific and Northern Europe. You would expect that. The other regions are very much in line in term of revenue growth versus the RevPAR.

Globally, which is in the end what matters because there is disparities, there is chunk of data right under because of the geography that is ours. Overall, we have incentive at 32% of the M&F revenue. Just as a reference, 34 was the number in 2019. We are basically back, and this leverage is now back helping us in revenue generation. You see the numbers versus 2021, which is a 93% increase. If I move to the EBITDA, the overall the group EBITDA is moving from EUR 22 million last year to EUR 675 million this year. M&F, which is moving from EUR 93 million to EUR 6 million, sorry. Hotel services moving from EUR 93 million to EUR 661 million.

Out of that, M&F is moving from 274 to 737. This is in the appendix, it reflects the distortion that I just was mentioning on incentive. If you want to look at the details of this by regions. Again, all of that is provided in appendix. As for service to owner, this was a big discussion back in the H1 results, where you may recall, we showed a loss of EUR 89 million. We did tell you back in the Q3 publication that we would be returning to breakeven, we are at EUR 14+ million. We did do what we said, which by the way, also explains the EUR 675 million of EBITDA for the group.

If you were to look at the H1 versus H2 EBITDA generation, you can see that H2 2022 EBITDA is in advance versus H2 2019 EBITDA. There was really an investment that was done in H1 to rebound from the -25% RevPAR that we faced with Omicron in order to ensure that the year will end up properly, and this is exactly what you see in those numbers. It did end up properly, very well. Regarding hotel asset, EBITDA recovered EUR 237 million in financial year 2022. As I mentioned, this is largely Australia. These are the Mantra properties.

The number is in fact behind the number of 2019, but for, I would say, a very sound reason that over time, we've reduced our lease exposure in Australia by renegotiating those leases and getting out of them as much as we could. The gap in EBITDA is, in fact, something voluntarily in order to exit from an asset-heavy component of the business, which is the Mantra leases. Just as an illustration, the debt on the balance sheet from 2019 to 2022 has been reduced by 40% on those leases. By the way, for the record, the new business EBITDA is positive. Moving to the EBITDA to net profit bridge, a very straightforward bridge.

We end up with a net profit of EUR 402 million coming from an EBITDA of EUR 675 million. Not a lot of, you know, exceptional item. You see on the share of profit coming from associate and joint venture, the turnaround of AccorInvest, and this line is mostly the 30% ownership that we've got in AccorInvest. AccorInvest has been having a great year because they are in Europe, and Europe has done well, as you saw in our numbers, and they got the leverage of being an asset-heavy business. That's why you see this jump from -EUR 273 to +EUR 33 million. The other line that is, that is significant in terms of delta is the non-recurring item.

The EUR 554 million that you see here last year, it was coming from the Huazhu share that we sold and the gain recognition that was done in 2021, which you don't have that in 2022, hence the gap. As far as the discontinued profit, you've got here another reversal coming from the disposal, the contingency, that we took on AccorInvest when we did the deal back in 2018. As the risk did not materialize, we're able to reverse those provision gradually. Moving to the recurring free cash flow. From EBITDA to recurring free cash flow. Here again, a very clean and straightforward EBITDA to recurring free cash flow bridge. You see on the cost of net debt a slight improvement because our interest is decreasing.

I'll get to that later on. You see that the recurring investment at EUR 159 million is very much in the guidance. We had told you somewhere between EUR 150 -EUR 200 million. We are at the lower end of that bracket. What will happen in 2023 is that reason why we are at the lower end is that some of the key money got postponed on some properties. So you, you should expect 2023 to be slightly above EUR 200 million. Over the two years we'll be within the guidance we provide, but with one year being at the low end and the other one being at the high end. The other remarkable point here is the working capital is super nominal, close to zero, which is exactly what we have always been targeting.

The net debt, you see a reduction of EUR 200 million on the net debt. Obviously, the activity helps. You generate EUR 273 million of cash. We completed the full disposal of Huazhu in 2023. Part of it got executed in 2022 to the tune of EUR 154 million, there is that element in the bridge. The third thing is that we sold 10.8% of Ennismore. You surely recall that in Q4 for EUR 185 million. The offset to that is a debt increase related to the constitution of Ennismore, into which you recall we bought some of the shares that we were not owning in Mama Shelter, 25 hours Hotels and more importantly, in Paris Society.

The net of all of that is this EUR 200 million improvement on the net debt. Moving to balance sheet. Some more on the balance sheet. You see that we fully benefit from the active balance sheet management that we've done over those years. I mean, we've been always actively managing the asset and liability of the company, and you see a debt profile which is very sound. The liquidity at EUR 2.8 billion. EUR 1.6 is cash, EUR 1.2 is a credit line. Our cost of financing is slightly down versus 2021 at 2.1%. Last but not least, we reiterate our commitment, as we've always done, to restore investment-grade rating that we lost with the COVID, like everybody in the industry.

With this full year result, we are basically now at the level of that re-rating, i.e., our ratio, notably the debt coverage ratio, is investment-grade level. I think this is a very good piece of news. Again, we will continue to further improve all of this situation. On the right side, you've got the debt profile that we put every year. Two things I'd like to say. First off, there is no significant maturity before 2026, and this is the IFRS debt schedule, so it does not include the hybrid debt, which you recall is to the tune of EUR 1 billion in 2024, 2025.

Moving to something which is important and that we've not, you know, highlighting enough in history, which is the extra-financial reporting. Not only the numbers, but also what we do in matters of social and environment. I mean, we did set up ourselves a target. I mean, some of them are in the bonuses of the top management and Sébastien bonuses, and we've been meeting all of those targets. First off, carbon emission. There is a decrease of the so-called Scope 1 and 2 versus 2019, and this is in line with what we the SLB financing that we issued one year ago.

Obviously energy sobriety measures and all of that is helping. The other one, which was a significant push because it impacted everybody, was the single-use plastic. We've been able to remove 300 ton of plastic this year coming from single-use plastic amenities, notably. We are basically at a ratio of 84% of the hotel having removed those. For those of you who travel, you clearly should see that and this is something that we really want to continue to push. ESG training, I mean, a lot of it is making sure that the head of the people is cleared up. There is here a School For Change training that we've been having 97% of our employees complete.

Last but not least, diversity and inclusion. One ratio here, which is that 39% of our of our management committees are composed of women, this is an improvement versus 2021, which was an improvement versus 2020. Little by little, we are going exactly where we should be getting. Next slide is back to shareholder and what we do from those nice financials. We are gonna resume dividend. Our dividend policy, as we all know, is that 50% of the recurring free cash flow is the yearly ordinary dividend. If you do that mechanical competition, it would give EUR 0.71 per share, which is what you've got on the slide.

Considering the disposal that we did this year with Ennismore and Huazhu, we, the board of directors decided to propose an additional exceptional dividend at the next general assembly. When you add up the two, you would be at 1.05 per share, which, for those who recall, is exactly the level of dividend that was paid between 2017, 2018, 2019. That translates into an absolute amount of EUR 276 million. With this, I leave the floor to Sébastien for some concluding remarks.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thanks a lot, Jean-Jacques. You're being over time by 1 minute and 20 seconds. Actually it's a good transition to talk about Jean-Jacques Morin. It's part of what you have on your slide here, which is the reorg. This is the last time Monsieur Morin will be in front of you as Chief Financial Officer of this company, which is a bad thing because he's very, very good.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Over time, huh?

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

You being over time by 1 minute and 20 seconds. It's an extraordinary time because he will be even better as CEO of an enormous organization, which is 90% of the numbers of hotels of this group and roughly two-thirds of the cash flow, which is the eco, mid-scale, and premium. It's a new life. It's a new adventure. It's the perfect timing for Jean-Jacques to go deeper into the organization. He is super excited about it. He probably doesn't show, but I can tell you he's just eager to start, which he did on the 1st of January. Which means that I guess, we have been selecting a new Chief Financial Officer will be coming here early May.

Until now and early May, we're gonna be continuing as he does now to do kind of actually dual role as looking and leading eco, mid-scale, premium, but of course, still looking after the numbers, but slowly transitioning to full-time job. Again, you don't know how privileged and happy I was when we found you some six years ago, seven years ago?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

7 years, yes.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Seven years ago.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

It was fast.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

The quality of the number, the quality of the reporting, the accuracy of the numbers, permits the group to be where it is. I and we owe a lot to you. Seriously, Jean-Jacques, I'm, I wish the next guy is gonna be even better. I'm not sure, but it's gonna be probably certainly as good. Merci, merci énormément. Go on this new organization. We refer here to Turbo. Turbo was kind of a code name for Accor to reorganize the group in two autonomous independent division, implemented, 45 days ago on the 1st of January of this year, which resulted into luxury lifestyle, I insist, brand-led organization.

Brand-led means, you will have, and you have today, Raffles, Orient Express, New York headquartered with a new CEO by the name of Omer Acar. Fairmont transitioning over from Toronto headquartered to Dubai headquartered. Sofitel, MGallery, Emblems, with Maud Bailly, headquartered in Paris. Fairmont was, Mark Willis. You have Ennismore, which is the lifestyle organization that you know we headquartered in London under the name of Ennismore, 1.5 years ago with Sharan Pasricha and Gaurav Bhushan. I will take the leadership of that division. It's going very smoothly. People are extremely excited, and the sense of ownership belongings, it's already there. We're gonna have some very happy surprise on probably firming up brand promise, social content, and of course, growth and margin.

Same principles apply on premium mid-scale economy, except it's not brand-led, it's geographic-led. You have one Chief for Americas, Thomas Dubas, headquartered in São Paulo, but covering the entirety of the Americas. You have Europe under the tutorship of Patrick Mendes, the entire Europe, which includes North Africa. You have Asia Pacific, Middle East, India, headquartered in Singapore, under the tutorship of Duncan O'Rourke. You have Greater China, which is a single-led organization with Gary Rosen. Again, tutorship of that organization with Jean-Jacques. Jean-Jacques, I've met with him many times, so did I with Luxury Lifestyle. I need to insist on how those two organizations have been put in place. We kind of started mid-November because the numbers were solid for 2022, so permitted to gain some time.

It is probably 10 times better than expected in terms of firmness, in terms of strength, in terms of possession. They know where they're going, and I think they want to surprise us and you on getting to better results and certainly greater focus, which was why we've done it, which is get people with the right expertise at the right time in front of client owners. Which result in point number four here, which is, as you expected and as we should, the first semester numbers of 2023 will be reported accordingly. You will see, by the end of July that each of the numbers that you show, that you've seen being represented to you very differently by Jean-Jacques five minutes ago, that will no longer be the case. You'll have 2 column.

You'll have a column for Luxury Lifestyle, and you have a column for Premium, Midscale, and Economy. That is perfect. It's gonna give you better clarity. What we likely to do, please be indulgent, we're gonna get back to you soon. We probably won't give you those numbers at the end of July without being properly prepared, because otherwise you won't be able to model and understand. Very likely by the end of June, we need to organize the date, and we need to define whether it's a capital market day, whether it's just a rendezvous. Pierre- Loup, Etienne, Jean-Jacques, myself, the new Chief Financial Officer will sit down. We'll sit down in some proper format to make sure we can actually give you kind of a lead of the way we are being reorganized.

That gets when the numbers are released at the end of July, you had the benefit of 40 a month, sorry, to understand the way this group is functioning. We'll get back to you, but very likely we're gonna have a deep dive, let's put it that way now, a deep dive into the new organization by the end of June with the proper CEOs and executives probably on the stage with you representing what they do. On the last slide is it's simple. You don't know how much time we spend on putting the words next to one another on a simple phrase. The first one, which is why I said simple, start with reap the benefit.

If we do a reorganization, it's because we believe we can even achieve greater, better results in the years ahead. Simplified, this is what Turbo is all about, is more focused model and organization. Number two, sustain activity for 2023. We are today telling you that we are looking forward for a RevPAR expectation. We never do actually, by the way. We've never done it over the last few years.

We usually wait until first semester to be behind us, end of July, to give you some kind of guidance. Decided that I guess we feel strong enough that we could, even though the bracket is large, that we could assert that 2023 will be of a better caliber with a better revenue top line, and a RevPAR, which is, as we assess today, and we'll fine-tune that bracket, 5%-9%, looking forward for 2023. Number three, Accor has been, for 50 years, certainly one of the best leaders when it comes to CSR, ESG industry practices. You know, we said it, all the different executives at, in hospitality, Marriott, Hilton, InterCon, whomever, that you need to do it in terms of carbon reduction, in terms of food waste, in terms of energy reduction, in terms of diversity inclusion.

We also need to do it together. We don't want Accor to be the leader and the best. We just want to make sure what we do well is very rapidly shared with the entire hospitality industry, and they wish exactly the same thing on the other side of the Atlantic. If anything we have, which is maybe of a differentiating factor, is when it comes to diversity, inclusion, and what we do for a lot of the colleagues of Accor, you know what we have done with the Heartist Fund, with 120,000 people benefiting from a EUR 36 million investment, is we're gonna be continuing putting even a greater sense into the caring attitude of being into hospitality industry.

It's extremely important, even more so when you have a staff shortage, but it's where we should be, in front of our clients, in front of the owners, and of course, with our own colleagues and employees. We're spending a lot of time on it, and we're very proud of what has been achieved over the last 50 years and certainly over the last 3 years. The last point is

I told you many times that I guess we spent the last three years caring about our employees, caring about our owners, of course, looking at the clients being back. It is certain time to care more and to think deeper about the shareholders company. We need to go back to larger return of capital to the shareholders. There is a but, which you've seen in the pages of Jean-Jacques, is as long as we fulfill the commitment to restore investment-grade rating. It's, I hope, on your question of time, and we'll spend the time with Jean-Jacques, myself, Pierre Lou with the rating agencies. We need to be in a greater, more solid position, go back to investment rating before we can be even more generous as we should be with the shareholders.

Voila, that's where, that's where we are. I did go over time by 45 seconds. Now we have the next 45 minutes, 50 minutes on the Q&A. The line's probably gonna be working. I don't know who's gonna wanna go first, let's launch the Q&A session. Thank you so much for attending so far. Richard Clarke. We have the benefit of having a few, not that many, so we're not exactly alone, Jean-Jacques and I here on the desk. Richard Clarke has nothing to do other than being in Paris today. He is kind of actually, by surprise, showed up this morning. Happy to see you, Richard, live here. Since you're here, and you have your hand raised, why don't you go first?

Richard Clarke
Senior Research Analyst, Bernstein

Thanks very much. Yeah, Richard Clarke for Bernstein. Three as per normal. I guess just starting on the RevPAR guidance. It, you gave some pretty positive commentary on how January started. It looks like if Q1 matched Q4, that would give you 10% year-on-year RevPAR growth, so you'd be in negative territory for the rest of the year. Just wondering, are you expecting some slowdown through the year? What's the sort of cadence of that RevPAR growth? Why is it such a slowdown from what you did in the second half of 2022? Second one around, I guess you're not gonna give EBITDA guidance, but just thinking about how we can think about some of the building blocks from the EUR 675 this year into next year.

How should we think about RevPAR sensitivity? How we can think about incremental cost savings, unit growth into next year, and how we might be able to build that up. The third one, I guess anything you can give us on the timing of that, the rating agencies changes, and then how much excess cash do you believe you have? You've got EUR 1.6 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Once that changes, anything you can say around the sort of scope or size of potential buybacks you could do. Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Just on the rating agency, because, you know, this is obviously not in our hands, Richard. I know you know that. And we have obviously a very close relationship with the agency in the sense that we really try to make them aware of all they need to be aware in order to assess what is really the situation of the company. One of the difficulty that has been the fact that Europe as a continent, as being having a delayed recovery versus the U.S. So if you look at how the rating have been working, is they have been re-rating the companies that benefited from the first wave of improvement coming from, you know, the RevPAR, which has been North America fundamentally.

We think that we now have reached a point where this is the turn of Europe, and this is also the turn of Asia. I think there is just a timing here in the way all of that get assessed. I cannot obviously talk for the rating agency, but I would think that during this year, you know, with the kind of perspective that we see and the fact that we end up the current 2022 fiscal year with a leverage from an S&P computation, which is at the level which is required in order to be investment grade, there should be some positive movement. Again, it's my hope. It's what I think is logical, but it is something that we need to talk to them about.

Richard Clarke
Senior Research Analyst, Bernstein

You wanna go on RevPAR, the dicey question?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah. I mean, on RevPAR, listen, here is the thing. You do something, you get hit. You don't do something, you get hit. I don't know what to do anymore. We never give the RevPAR, right? We never give the RevPAR at this time of the year. We decided with Sébastien that as we are coming from a period which has been, you know, relatively volatile, to say the least, we are gonna make sure that we provide the positive signal that the 2023 numbers will be better than the 2022 numbers. You know, some people were doubting of that. I mean, I'm talking, you know, investment days.

Because of all the reason we know in the world, you know, inflation, I mean, Russia crisis, supply chain and all of that, we do not believe this is gonna be the case in 2023. I think another element that I can jump on here is that, you know, there is no slowdown of the pricing power. There is a better utilization of the hotel. You know, the occupancy has been improving quarter after quarter. There is now coming on board China, Asia more generally, and with some potential which is still significant on the other regions in term of occupancy rate. We wanted to pass sign that we would be showing growth next year. Is 5%-9%, you know, the best number?

It's numbers I give on the 1st of January. On the 1st of January, I'm not gonna put myself totally naked. Wanted to give signal. It's a positive signal, and the numbers for January and February is much above that number.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

I guess I'll say it a bit differently. I hope I'm not wrong. Since I alluded to Jean-Jacques being there for the last seven years, I've of course, you will be accepting this, with the exception of 2020 and 2021, where clearly we were a bit outside of control, our own control on the activities. I don't know of any year since Jean-Jacques has been here, thank God, me before, where Accor did not perform better than any guidance we provided to anybody outside. Never, ever have we been under what we've been estimating. I'll leave it as such.

When it comes to the EBITDA sensitivities, we Richard, we moved away purposely from whether it is EUR 13 million for point of RevPAR, EUR 15 million, EUR 12, because of course, as you know, it's very different on the upside as opposed to what is on the downside. It's a metric that people internally did not really assess and understand. That was the only one we could be provided to the street for the last 24 months. We've been shying away from it because it was not understandable, and it was not clear enough for people to be motivated. What we can tell you, and we discussed it, of course, Jean-Jacques and I a couple days ago, is, since we believe it's gonna be a good year for 2023, the EBITDA will go up by more than a double-digit percent.

That's what I can tell you. What do we have? What do I have? Oh, sorry. We need to get people on the phone because otherwise there's not enough people in this room beside Richard and ourselves. Are we connected with the outside world?

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. We'll now take our first question from Jamie Rollo at Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Morning, everyone. Three quick ones, I hope, from me. First of all, just thinking about services to owners this year, are you still expecting a broadly breakeven performance? Secondly, could you give us a feeling for where you think net unit growth might come out this year? You had a fairly good end to the year. Sort of what are you seeing in terms of conversions, particularly large, conversions like some of your competitors have done. Thirdly, where were you on incentive fees last year? Do you see those fully recovering back to the sort of 35% of M&F revenues this year? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I'll take the easy one. Yes, on STO, we're really positive. We committed on that. This is what the model calls for. We will be positive. That's one of the building block, in fact, Richard, that you are asking on the bridge from 2022 to 2023. As we ended up being negative in 2022 net-net of H1 and H2, there is here one element of bridge between the 2022 actuals and the 2023 outlook as we see it. In term of incentive, I think the 34, 35 is a good number. If you look at it with more historical data, Jamie, it's a number that we've more or less done over years.

You know, it has always been fluctuating around one-third of the revenue being incentive. The only thing we, as usual, we need to be cognizant is that it's an average, and even the 32 that we've got this year is in fact an average between some very good numbers, like Middle East and Africa, as you would expect it from the RevPAR that I showed earlier, is way above the historical level of incentive. On the other hand, Greater China, which has got a nice set of properties and series of Fairmont and Sofitel, is way behind the level of incentive that we had in history.

I think the number in average is a good number, and then after that, there are chunks which are moving one way or the other, depending on how business evolves.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Jamie, I'll take the net unit growth. I'll tell you things you might know and probably get greater clarity. It is 3.2% for 2022. It was 5.5% in 2019. As you well know, 50% of Accor's growth when it comes to new openings has been for the last 5 - 7 years in Asia-Pacific. Oddly enough, which is why I've been insisting with you for the last couple years, I don't want to shy away from percentage, but I just want to remind you that even though it looks that 3.2% is of course lower than 5.5% two years ago, guess what?

The volume of fees of 2022 with the 3.2% net unit growth is of a higher magnitude than the volume of fees in 2019 when we had 5.5%. Why? It's a question of mix. Why are we going fast in luxury lifestyle? They contribute 4,000 fees per room compared to 800 fees per room for an ibis. You're gonna have to be patient with me. You're gonna have to wait until the end of June when I told you we're gonna do a deep dive because it makes no sense whatsoever to continue showing you a combined net unit growth unless we disclose to you what it is per division. You'll see that what matters is contribution. So that will be in. I'm not shy. I'm not, I'm not even resisting.

We're gonna be looking for even greater fees per room, in 2023. I'm insisting, and I know I'm the only one here, that what matters is volume drop through margin, not percentage.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Jean, on the incentive fees.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yes.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

I apologize, I didn't see the statements. Is there a figure for 2022? Also Sebastien, just on the unit growth here. Okay, scrap the unit growth question. Are you expecting a similar revenue contribution from new openings in 2023 as for 2022, or do we need to wait till June for that as well?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I just want to make sure I get your question right. Are you asking whether the incentive fee percent will be the same in 2023 versus 2022?

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

It was really what the actual 2022 number was. I think your 34, 35 was what you expected 2023 to be, I don't think we have the 2022 actual number.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Oh, okay. Okay. I mean, it's not difficult because I gave you the 32%. You've got the M&F fees, so you do, 32% of the M&F fees, and you will find that it is around EUR 330 million. EUR 330 million compares to an absolute number in 2019, which was to the tune of EUR 360 million. You are a little bit, a little bit behind, because in fact the percentage is a little bit behind. Is that answering your question, Jamie?

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Apologies, I must admit.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

No, no, that's okay.

Jamie Rollo
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Sorry.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

That's okay.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

That's okay.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

That's okay. Thank you.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thanks for being there, Jamie.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Jarrod Castle at UBS. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Jarrod Castle
Research Analyst, UBS

Good morning, gentlemen, and congrats, J.J.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thank you.

Jarrod Castle
Research Analyst, UBS

Three from me as well.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thank you. Thank you so much for me, Jarrod. That's super nice of you.

Jarrod Castle
Research Analyst, UBS

I still have to do our breakfast. Just coming back to a couple of things. Firstly, I mean, any views on the valuation of AccorInvest and also, you know, kind of, the lease reorg of Mantra and what that could mean for cash flows? Secondly, you didn't really speak that much about it at all, but just want to get an update in terms of, the loyalty program and partnership deals. How is that going? Any big signings there, credit cards, other third parties? Just lastly, I mean, is it time now maybe to think about another three-year or five-year target to communicate to the market during the course of this year like you did in the last decade? Thanks.

You want to take the five-year, three-year target or should I hedge it?

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

No, I Jarrod, it's a very big debate as we. That was the debate of the board yesterday. You know, the board had to acknowledge the numbers before being released to you. Of course, we had a session at the board level on timing of a deep dive or capital market day with the outside world. Is it too soon? When to have it? Of course, the content of it, to which I said that we'll spend appropriate time internally with executives, and of course, we'll have the board as being devil's advocate before showing anything to you. Part of that discussion has been, of course, whether we should be daring and going to a three-year, let alone four or five-year target.

The question was in between having a photo or having a dynamic photo. I am in the camp of showing something to you which is dynamic, which really what matters. The difficulty with this, again, we haven't made a decision, is are we really prepared with only five months of actual results and five months of ownership with the new CEOs for them to project themselves only five months after into a three-year target, which we're gonna have to live and die from. That's, we haven't, we haven't came up with a decision. I understand the remark because I have the same thinking in terms of what we should do or not.

We may not be of the same comfort, Jean-Jacques and I, which is why tandem has been working so well over the last seven years.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I mean, we'll do what makes sense on this one. We understand the need to provide, you know, visibility on where the business is heading, obviously. Jarrod, on your question on, you know, on Mantra, I was alluding in my talking points that we've been intelligently as we could as part of the renewal of the properties, as part of the negotiation that we could do over the last four years, 3-4 years since we acquired Mantra, to reduce that lease exposure. If you look at our accounts, the lease liability used to be to the tune of EUR 300+ million in 2018, EUR 350, and it's today probably to the tune of EUR 200 million.

We've reduced it by, you know, close to 40%. We're gonna continue as much as we can to do it, you know, as a dribbling, if you will. And continue to, you know, take off the balance sheet that asset heaviness, if you will. The money that we are gonna get coming from the lease if we are to sell a block of it is not what is significant. What is significant is the reduction in the debt that we're carrying on the balance sheet. Still EUR 200 million of debt on the balance sheet, which is about 10% of what net debt is. That's really what we are focused on Mantra.

By the way, just as a side comment, holding Mantra as being the right strategy because we took the loss as things dropped, and they dropped as it is, a lease business quite significantly in 2020, 2021 with the Covid. They've been also recovering quite nicely. In fact, the level of performance of the Mantra properties, which are lease property, is more or less the level of performance of 2019. The difference in absolute EBITDA is coming from the reduction in number of properties. That's also an element for why I think this strategy as being the right one. In term of AccorInvest, there is an answer which is on the account.

The valuation of AccorInvest is to the tune today of EUR 600 million, which is the accounting view, because we took the losses that AccorInvest had been generating on our account, as we should do per IFRS. The reality of it is that when we did the transaction of the sale in 2018, then when we did the complement of sale of the ownership that we've got, the valuation was more to the tune of EUR 1.1 billion from the top of my head. You know, 1.1, bit more than EUR 1.1 billion. There is a big difference between the accounting and the market valuation because of all what happened in Covid.

I think EUR 1 billion is much more, between quote, "the high type of valuation." If you look at how AccorInvest has been performing, they are not fully back to the level of net income or profit that was the one of 2018, 2019, but they are not far off. The same way that we are not fully at the level of 2019 EBITDA, but not far off either. There is also a benefit here at getting one more year of good result, couple more year of good result, in order to firm up valuation and thinking that people may have about the ownership of this stake, and this is what we're gonna do.

I think today the focus is getting out of that crisis and ensuring that you continue the pruning of the portfolio, which is what was started many years ago in Accor, was then pushed to AccorInvest, but the strategy has not changed. As usual, rotation of the asset is the name of the game. That's what we're working on. I hope this answers your question, Jarrod, on AccorInvest and Mantra.

Jaina Mistry
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Yeah. On the partnership, Jared, it's very imbalanced. It's in terms of signing and credit card. It's doing actually very well in the Middle East. It's doing well in Australia. It's not doing as good as we expected in Europe. We need to tackle it better in terms of attractiveness, in terms of population, in terms of the right bank network, issuer, emitting. Relationship is very good with BNP and Visa, which are two main partners. We need to make a better push and a greater push, we have a new tutorship under Alix Boulnois, still with Medi. That's one of the thing where I know we should get to a better result. We're not there where I want it to be.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah. You know, we've got a card in Abu Dhabi. We've got a card which is gonna be set up in Korea. We've got a card in Indonesia. All of thing have been moving. I think the fundamental issue that we've got versus, some of the other countries, in the U.S., everybody thinks credit card, and everybody owns five credit card. In France, if you have a credit card, you are not, there are people who don't even have credit card today. I mean, that's also what we need to go and battle against.

The product that we are proposing to the market in terms of the advantages that it provides, for example, in terms of, you know, insurance, in terms of the FX treatment of the fees, all of that is top-notch. We have the right product. We just need to change the head of the people.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to our next question from Jaina Mistry at Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jaina Mistry
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I've got three. Just on the guidance range again. The 5%-9%, I just wondered, what are you assuming in terms of the macro environment within your guidance range? What would we need to see to reach the low end and high end of guidance? My second question is around the reorganization. I mean, it obviously sounds like it's going very well. But obviously it's quite a big reorganization internally, and I wondered, what your thoughts are on the costs and the savings needed perhaps to offset any costs associated with it. My third question is around pricing. I mean, pricing's been really strong in 2022.

I know you said you've seen no slowdown so far, what's your outlook for 2023 in terms of rates?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yep.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Did you just on the, on the RevPAR 2 second. What is this. Two things which really are kind of actually question mark, but it's not a question of low end of the guidance or the upper end. China is how fast and strong will be the comeback of the 150 million Chinese travelers which we enjoyed in 2019, where would they go? Are they gonna go to Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia? Are they gonna go to Korea? Are they gonna go to Indonesia? Are they gonna go to Singapore? Of course, depending on market pricing is not the same. Of course, how many of them could go to Europe for that matter? It's a mix and geography where and a quantum on where those Chinese travelers was gonna come.

Two is, what we started with is, fragility or not of GDP resistance of some European countries, being U.K. and Germany, and where we are and where there's numbers of large boxes, and fair and conference and events. It's certainly gonna be better than 2022, of course, but how robust would that be and which timing? That's really what guides us on having that range what it is. On the reorg. The reorg is, thank you for saying it. It is, it is ahead of time because I told you they started mid-November as opposed to having started on the first of January. Again, greater force that I expected myself from the team in terms of taking ownership of their own duties, and excited about it.

In terms of the timing, we are ahead, and I have no fear. In terms of cost associated with this, we said it has to be cost neutral, and that has been acknowledged and agreed by everybody within Accor. It will be cost neutral. Cost neutral is for me in 12-15 months from now, not three months. You may be having a bit of cost in the first semester, which you're gonna be regaining as a result in the second semester. I don't know. I don't want to be blurry with you, but it's certainly cost neutral with a 12-14 months objective and no longer.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I'll add something on this one. The reason for why we feel so comfortable about it is that, yes, we put this organization in place as of January first. We've been working on it for more than one year, and we've been working on it for more than one year, in fact, on the desk thinking about what needs to be done in order to ensure that the concept was working and hence that you are not for the benefit of focusing, creating an overhang, which was too significant. We've been planning that thing extremely in advance. That means that some of, you know, changes in the way we operate are also part of, the way we ensure that neutrality.

For example, a reduction in number of region, some more additional short services, further optimization of the tools. It's nothing else than continuing what was done through reset and continuing that good discipline of always thinking of how you do business. As you are more focused, you create, in fact, a better definition of what you can optimize. When you are spread all over the thing, I mean, it creates some kind of a gray zone in many places. Here, you reduce your scope, and once you reduce your scope, you do better what you need to address. Anyway, for whatever it's worth, it's something that we've been really working on upfront.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Pricing is holding in terms of rate per room. Certainly for us in hospitality, as it is in other industry, you've seen the result of airline companies, where they also enjoyed a very significant uplift in pricing. No fear still there.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I think there if you look at some statistics and analysis done, I think what you found out is that the share of wallet of the consumer is in fact getting larger for anything which has to do with travel. It's not only hotel, it's travel in general term. Sébastien was referring to airline. There is a series of data that has been coming out which explains why you get that. In fact, it's just basic thing. I mean, people have been experiencing what it takes when you don't get it, so they're maybe not gonna be as crazy as what happened in Q3, where there was a limited capacity in many places and hence supply-demand in equation.

I think that you're gonna see that continuing, the willingness of people to spend more on travel, leisure than what they used to do before the crisis on the one hand. The other thing which is gonna play off is that some of the traveling capabilities are gaining again in capacity, notably the flight between the world and Asia. You're gonna see anyway also an occupation rate effect on the RevPAR and hence the fact that we really, really feel comfortable about, you know, the RevPAR numbers that we've been giving as of the first of January.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Okay.

Jaina Mistry
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you. If I was just clarifying on the guidance range, are you assuming a slowdown in macro conditions or some form of recession at the lower end of the range, at 5% of the range?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

No, we're not.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

No.

Jaina Mistry
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Thanks very much.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to our next question from Leo Carrington at Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Leo Carrington
Director and Head of Hotels and Leisure Equity Research, Citi

Thank you. Good morning.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Morning.

Leo Carrington
Director and Head of Hotels and Leisure Equity Research, Citi

If I could start with. Morning. I've got two questions. Just one briefly just to follow up on AccorInvest. I think what you've said is very clear, but conscious that the lockup of your, you know, expires in May for your residual ownership, would the intention be to, you know, start marketing this for disposal promptly or do you think there's more of a nuanced approach in terms of seeing a twelve months of full performance before disposal for an optimal price? Just a bit more color on your thinking there. Second question, obviously the pipeline's grown a little sequentially from Q3. Can you give some more color on the moving parts in there and in terms of signings?

Maybe asking the same question a different way, just with lifestyle and luxury is obviously at the early stages of the implementation of the new structure, and you've launched the new Handwritten Collection brand, and so there are moving parts still. Do you have a view on how the pipeline mix ultimately will settle between the two new divisions, maybe in 2 years' time, say?

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I'll take AccorInvest. The right answer to your question is that it's gonna be nuanced. You need to give them a little bit more time to just make sure that they can get to a level of result, which I think is what I said before, but I just want to reaffirm it to answer your question. Anybody who's gonna look at it will want to ensure what he's entering into, and hence will want to wait and get a little bit more of, you know, numbers, positive numbers. Remember, huh, they were. You saw my numbers when I showed you that I was losing on my 30%, more than EUR 200 million one year ago.

I am at zero this year. I think people will want to wait a bit more so that this zero becomes a positive number. Pipeline, Sébastien, you want to do it?

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

No, on the pipeline is, as I said to Jamie, you have to accept, I guess. I do not want to go broad on this question unless I go specific on the two divisions. Because having a common number for the group as it stands today makes absolute no sense. You'll have the clarity you need, which I want to share with you, in end of June.

Leo Carrington
Director and Head of Hotels and Leisure Equity Research, Citi

I look forward to it.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thank you so much. Do we have another question?

Operator

We'll take our next question. Sure, yes, we do. We take our next question from Vicki Stern at Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Vicki Stern
Managing Director, Barclays

Yeah. Hi. Morning, everyone. First question is just on the coming back on the sort of cash return leverage piece. Assuming things progress well on the S&P rating front, can you come back on sort of where you feel is the right level to be at in terms of your leverage? You obviously set that leverage range in a different world where interest rates were at zero. One of your U.S. peers is sort of perhaps erring on the side of caution there in the range just because of that higher interest rate environment. How are you thinking about, you know, putting this sort of credit rating piece aside for a second, the right level of leverage now in this sort of world going forward?

Second question is just coming back on that marketing swing comment that you talked about for Jean-Jacques. You know, I think it was probably EUR 75 million or so was the delta that we were talking about on marketing spend last year. Should we expect all of that to sort of come back into the EBITDA in 2023, or are there any sort of additional spending points we should have in mind on that one? Just finally, stepping back on the new organization, obviously, you know, lots of reasons to reorganize in the way you're doing. Just is there any sort of end game we should be thinking about in terms of structure of the group ultimately?

Is the desire just to sort of present these two businesses as separate units or ultimately you could consider a sort of separation of the two? Thanks.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

I'll just take the easy one, which is the one on the debt, and I'll give the difficult one to Sébastien. I think, you know, below 3.5 is the right level, Vicki, that we are seeing currently. I think 3.5 is what we're discussing with the rating agencies. Somewhere a little bit below 3.5 would give us the comfort we need. It's not only S&P, it's S&P and Fitch, by the way, that we need to basically talk to and just for the sake of clarity.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Yeah, just what I, and I should have answered in one of the questions before for the same topic, Vicky, which is why you're coming back to it, because we simply did not answer, because we missed it, sorry. Totally agree with Jean-Jacques. Post shareholder buyback, we have to be lower than 3.5, no question about it. Otherwise, we're not gonna be playing yo-yo with our commitment to restore investment-grade. We should not, and we will not. The numbers we have in mind, the minute we could be in a very comfortable situation, it's certainly meaningful in terms of do we need EUR 1.6 billion cash on the balance sheet? No. Could we leave with EUR 1 billion cash on balance sheet? Yes. i.e., it's probably EUR 500 -EUR 600 million. It's EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million.

Should it be 5% of our core market cap? Yes. 5% of our core market cap is EUR 400 million-ish. In my mind, the minute you stay well comfortable below the 3.5, if you can afford to use a third of your cash and up to 5% of your stock, we should do it in a minute. There's no better investment than this one. In terms of separating the two, the two autonomous division. Number 1, give us the benefit of showing growth, performances, different profile. Because they do have, which is why I'm insisting on not providing aggregated numbers today because we've been going deep dive, Jean-Jacques and myself and many others here.

You don't know how much those two are different in terms of growth, in terms of profile, in terms of RevPAR, in terms of net unit growth. Vastly different. Which is not a surprise, but this is exactly why we need a greater focus. They both fit very well under Accor's balance sheet, Accor's size, Accor network and Accor relationship with the owners. As much as I've been blamed for not being boring enough, it is not the time to go to transformation number six. Actually number five. We had the first one, which was get light. The second one, which was get broad, go big into luxury lifestyle and non-Europe. We had get fit, which was the 22% head count reduction through COVID. Now we have get focus.

It is not the time to go into a fifth transformation. Let's get our act together. Let's get the EBITDA where it should be. Let's get great margin out of soup businesses, and that question, we'll defer it whenever it needs be, but not now.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

The last element of your question, Vicki, to make it very, very clear, STO positive plus service to owner for 2023.

Vicki Stern
Managing Director, Barclays

Okay, that's great. Thanks very much.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Sure.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Thanks, Vicki.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to our next question from André Juillard at Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

André Juillard
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Good morning, gentlemen, congratulations for this strong results. Congratulations to Jean-Jacques for on your role. Three questions, if I may. First one is about the saving plan you put in place in 2020. Could you give us some more color about where you are and what you still expect to be delivered structurally and permanently from this saving plan in the future? Second question is about AccorInvest. I understand that you need time to fully recover, but could you give us some more color about the different options you're thinking about and what kind of discussions you have at the moment with the actual shareholders of AccorInvest? Last question, if I may. You've got a record number of brands at the moment.

With the new organization, do you think about reducing this number of brands and merging some of them or is the idea to keep all of them? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

On the saving plan, I think it does not change from what we've been communicating. I think we said it's EUR 200 million EBITDA, and EUR 120 million of it was to come after the end of 2022. 20 remains the right number. Again, this is very inertial because those 20 are coming from system changes. They needed times to be implemented, they are being implemented, sorry. You will get those EUR 20 million additional in 2023.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Just I'll.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Yeah.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

I'll tell you a bit on AccorInvest, Andre. It's a very professional, sophisticated consortium of investors, which you know. You are in the hands of former Colony investors, then Amundi, then GIC, then PIF. Many of them are, of course, sovereign funds. You have Accor and a tiny bit of Scandinavian family offices, sovereign fund as well. Professional, sophisticated expert in terms of return and in terms of risk matters. We've been battling all of us together very well through the mud of 2020 and 2021, facing restructuring EUR 1 billion of necessary funds, EUR 500 million state guaranteed loan and EUR 500 million from investors. We're just out of the woods in terms of greater performances, close enough to 2019, like Jean-Jacques just talked about.

It's a matter of projecting ourselves. We've missed two years. Let's not miss the next two years. The next two years are all about operations and trying to reduce the level of debt by basically reorganizing, reshuffling, the portfolio of AccorInvest. As Jean-Jacques said, both you wanna wait for greater result, which you're gonna have. Two, you have to battle together to simplify the balance sheet of this company before you even thinking of leaving the ship. We said to our common shareholders and partners, we will be there with them and not depart because the lockup is over. We simply won't until the job is finished. When it comes to brand and numbers of brands, you know, Andre, three or four years ago, I remember everybody telling us, I guess Accor has too many brands.

Look at how many added brands they have in a different organization. You'll have, again, as I said, be with me end of June, me being us. Be with us end of June, we'll go probably better granularity when it comes to what is a Sofitel versus MGallery, what is Fairmont, what is Tribe, what is Handwritten, what is Mercure. You'll have. No, we do not have too many brands. We're not foolish. We're not naive. We have the brands we want and the brands we need.

André Juillard
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Perfectly clear. Thanks.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our last question from Megha Karbhari at IndusInd. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Megha Karbhari
Senior Business Development, IndusInd Bank

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the presentation and taking my questions. I just have two questions. First is, you have sold Huazhu, and, how many hotels do you still have in mainland China? The second question is about hybrids. Is it typical that you will call back the hybrids on the first call date? Thank you very much.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

You're welcome. Jean-Jacques is probably looking. For Greater China, we have over.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

We, with Huazhu, we have 450 hotels. With Huazhu and Dusit, you need to add the hotel that Accor is having, so probably an additional 150, I would say.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Yeah, I think we have over 650 hotels in China. The Huazhu is a partnership with them, is of the exact same quality regardless of owning 10% of Huazhu at the time, and of which we have nothing left because, as you know, we sold everything the last four months. We're gonna be continuing the master franchise partnership with them on ibis and Mercure. We entered another partnership in JO&JOE with another Chinese operator which you know called Country Garden. We're not exclusive to Huazhu, but the relationship is extremely strong. Chairman Qi Ji and the teams of Accor, we trusted relationship. We know each other well. I'll be again with him and Jean-Jacques actually. In mid-March, we'll go and sit down with Qi Ji at Huazhu. Huazhu is enjoying very significant growth.

No, it's the reason why we entered six years ago are still very much the same today, so we should be enjoying the ride together.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

On the hybrid, this has been part of our capital structure for now many years. It was there when I arrived, and it's a very nice instrument, and so we plan to continue maintaining that structure.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

I think we should be almost leave it as such, unless there's one last question, but if it's not the case, w e need to go and sit down with shareholders, whether current shareholders or prospective shareholders of Accor, and trying to actually share the very strong story of ours. Merci beaucoup. Thank you so much for having connected to this phone call. Again, Jean-Jacques, merci beaucoup.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you, everybody.

Sébastien Bazin
Group Chairman and CEO, Accor

Bye-bye.

Jean-Jacques Morin
Group Deputy CEO and CFO, Accor

Thank you, Sebastien. Bye-bye.

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