Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Atos Group Q1 2026 Performance Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one and one on your telephone. You'll then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Mr. Philippe Salle, Group Chairman and CEO. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. I am today with Jacques-François de Prest, and we're going to talk about Q1. Let's go directly on page 6 on the business highlights. First point is solid financial performance. I think we are quite happy, let's say, with the start of the year. We have always said that's the lowest point of the year and then we gradually, I would say, improve the growth. Further progress in the execution of the Genesis plan. The Genesis plan is doing also very well. We will finish the first Genesis plan probably by mid of this year, and we have extended the plan, I would say, with another savings to be finished probably by the end of 2026.
The idea for us, of course, is to have the full savings of the new, I would say, the extended plan in the course for the year 2027. We have a positive business momentum, and I will come back to this with, I would say, book-to-bill that is the highest for the last five years. Also now we have a clear focus on our strategic pillars. Agentic AI, we have launched a manifesto. Sovereign, we have launched also a manifesto internally, and it's going to be externally in the coming weeks. Of course, cyber, where we are number one in Europe. If we go on the key numbers on page seven, order entry is EUR 1.5 billion. It's 89% for Atos, it's 87% with Eviden.
Of course, as you can imagine with Eviden, the order entry was a little bit low in Q1 with the war. We definitely think that it's going to be much better after, let's say, the war, but we don't know, unfortunately, when it's going to be finished. Revenue is EUR 1.7 billion +. It's roughly EUR 1,640, what we call with the go forward perimeter. The go forward, it's without Bull that we have sold on the March 31st. Latin America, and we expect to close Latin America next week. If it's not next week, beginning of May, but we will try, I would say, to finish this transaction, let's say, next week which means that the perimeter now is roughly the perimeter going forward. There are still some countries we want to close but are very small.
In terms, let's say, of sale, I think it's finished. Next, change of cash, I think a very good news. It's -EUR 47 million. You have to understand that we have EUR 71 million of restructuring, so it means that we have produced roughly EUR 24 million of cash. Also we have the Bull cash consumption. Unfortunately, we are not able to estimate that cash consumption for now. We will do this, in fact, when we're going to close H1. Just for information, Bull, the EBITDA was around -25, CapEx -30. EBITDA minus CapEx is -EUR 55 million. We estimate that probably there is a positive working cap, but it's possible, of course, that Bull has an impact of, let's say, around 10, 20, 30 million, we'll see. It means, in fact, that the production of cash is much higher than, in fact, EUR 24 million.
Then the liquidity in billion is a little bit above last year, December of 2025. Remember also that we have bought already EUR 62 million of the 1.5L. Of course there is less cash, but we have also less debt. Let's go on the three-year for the Genesis. I'm not going to highlight. Remember that there were seven pillars in Genesis. There are a lot of things that we are doing. The first one is the growth. As I say, we have redesigned completely for me the engine of growth. It's going to, I would say, produce a lot of, I would say, of course, results in the coming months now and years. I would say the teams are in place, most of them now.
We have, I would say, also put a focus with Florin, the CTO, on our three strategic pillars. Agentic, sovereign, and cyber. We have now launched this morning for two or three months a campaign also in France, I would say to, let's say, push the image of Atos and I would say the main, I would say message is that Atos is back. As I say now the term, the target operating model, in fact, in sales is completely in place. You will see also, for example, that the pipeline has increased almost by EUR 1 billion in one quarter. That's, I would say, that gives, of course, a very good signs for the rebound that we estimate that will happen, in fact, in Q3. In terms of country reviews, we sold Ideol. It's a company that was in Nordics.
It's mainly, in fact, Norway and Finland. We closed the deal on end of January. South America, as I say, next week. Bull was done also end of March. In terms of operational cost, I think we are continuing, I would say, the progress. The billability rate now is above 80%, and it's in fact close to 85%, the target that we have. We are now, let's say, recalculating a little bit differently this billability rate, because we take into account now the average salary of the people that are not billed versus, I would say, the salary of people that are billed. And then we see that there is, of course, a discrepancy, and there is no, I would say, magic, but usually the people that are more costly, unfortunately, are more on the bench than the people that are billed.
I would say we will not recalculate this rate, but we will adjust it, I would say, to the salaries. Legal entities, we continue to simplify the number of entities. We want to shave, I would say, the number of entities by hundreds still. Then we are also putting some AI internally. Right now, for example, we are testing AI on the revenues. In fact, we are looking at all the contracts that we have, and it's several thousand. We look also at the options or, I would say, the paragraph in the different contracts that we have signed where we can extend the pricing or bill a little bit differently so it can give, I would say, some rooms of improvement in terms of margin and revenues for the teams. Genesis is going very well.
The Genesis, the initial plan will be finished mid-2026. We estimate that the EUR 650 million savings plan is almost complete. That's why we have extended now the plan to have, I would say, a plan that will finish now end of 2026. It means it's a target above now EUR 700 million. In terms of workforce on page 9, as you can see, we started the year at 63,000. We continue, I would say, the restructuring, and we also manage the leavers versus hirings to be negative. We finish at 61,000. You take out Bull to 2,500. We are now at a little bit below 59. If you take South America, we are probably close to 56,000. That's probably where we will be probably at the end of next week.
I would say I definitely think that we will land around 55,000 when Genesis will be complete. We are almost there. We go on page 10 on the order book. First, the book-to-bill is very strong, 89% for Atos, and in North America, it's above 100%. Just for the analyst, I always say that the book-to-bill is a proxy, unfortunately, of growth. I think we have a very good example. The book-to-bill of North America is above 100%. They continue to decrease, unfortunately, in terms of top line in Q1. The book-to-bill of U.K. is below 100%, and now they are growing. As I say, unfortunately, it's not an immediate, I would say, reading when you have a book-to-bill at below 100%, that it means that we're not going to grow. I don't think that is the case.
We are still looking to find a better measure. It's not an easy one, but we are working on it. I hope that we can probably share some, let's say, results in H1 or at the end of the year. The qualified pipeline, as I say, is up roughly close to EUR 1 billion. We are now at EUR 13 billion roughly of qualified pipeline, so almost two years of revenues. A little bit less than two years, of course. The renewal rate also is 94%. The good news is that we don't have big renewals now going forward. In fact, for this year, I think we are not going to lose any other contracts. It has been done, of course, in the course of 2025. The two big contracts in the U.S. has been renewed. One has been signed, in fact, in end of March with CNA.
It's a very big contract, $480 million. We're also discussing probably to extend the contract to more than this $500 million. We're still in negotiation in the course of Q2. The second one also is in California. We have won the contract. It will be signed in the course of April or May. It's done. We are just waiting, I would say, the signature of the client. Then for the U.S., it's done. We don't have big renewals, in fact, in other parts of the world. There is a medium-sized contract, in fact, in BNN right now. We are waiting the answer probably next week. That's all, which I think is very good news. That's why we are very confident on the rebound of the top line in Q3.
As you can imagine, we have a good traction in cloud, in cyber, and in Data & AI, because we are growing, in fact, in these three service line, let's say. You can see below some contracts that we have renewed. For example, CNA in the U.S., it's a very big contract. There is some C&MI, there is a digital workplace and cyber, and we are also now looking for digital applications, and the Data & AI, in fact, for the client. It's an insurance company, so I definitely think that Agentic has a big impact, in fact, in this company. We have, for example, with Gigalis in France, renewed a four-year plan with cyber. It's what we call framework agreement. It means that we have after that the possibility, I would say, to tender or put people or put, I would say, new projects in place.
Most of the framework, in fact, are not in the book-to-bill, so we are very cautious on this. That's why I think probably the book-to-bill is a mirror of probably what is going to happen on the revenues going forward. In the U.K., we have won a very good contract with the Ministry of Housing at GBP 63 million, seven years for Digital Applications. For example, in Germany, in Austria, we have won also a very big contract with ÖBB at EUR 48 million for nine years. I think that there is good traction. I see that there is more and more, I would say, appetite. Doors are open from the clients. I think it's much better than last year. Definitely, I think now we need to win, I would say, the contract.
I would say we are back to a normal business. If we go on page 11, this is the three pillars in terms of technology. This is where we're going to invest most of our R&D and push, I would say, very hard. Agentic, sovereign, and cybersecurity. Agentic, as I say, we launch already the manifesto. We have already studios in place in the four big countries, and we have now signed different clients. There is an ecosystem around us of startups that will help us, I would say, deliver the agentics or the agents in the different scenarios of our clients. With the sovereignty, so there is a manifesto also that we're going to produce. It has been already shared with the top 200 within Atos, in fact, last week.
We're going to share it now externally in the course of next week or probably beginning of May. There is a lot of appetite, as you can imagine, right now, especially in Europe. Cyber, of course, there are a lot of things going with this. We see also some developments with agentic there. Of course, we have a very strong position, as you can imagine, in Europe, and we are pushing now also cyber in North America. Now, if I go to the next page, so the next section is the Q1 revenue performance. I can go through, I would say, the main numbers. First, as you can see, when we looked at the Q1 restated, it's roughly EUR 2 billion. We take out the scope and the foreign exchange, the divestitures.
In fact, the perimeter going forward, which is without Bull and without Ideol, and of course, without Latin America, was roughly EUR 1.8 billion. We finished at 164, which is roughly -11%. As I say, we were in fact anticipating, let's say, a weak Q1. It will be much better, in fact, in Q2, and we are still looking to make the rebound in Q3. If you look, in fact, on page 14 by region, we are probably a little bit, let's say, not surprised, but North America probably is too weak. The sentiment, in fact, the economic sentiment is a little bit, let's say, challenging in this area. The rest is okay. As you can see, UK now is growing at +5. We estimate also that Germany will be on positive growth in Q2.
We see, I would say, region by region that, I would say, we are coming back to a positive territory in the coming quarters. If I go, let's say, region by region, so I start with Germany on page 15. I think Germany is doing quite well. As you can imagine also, the EBIT now is positive in Q1. It was negative last year. By the way, just for information, the EBIT of the group has more than tripled without Bull in Q1 versus last year. We don't publish, of course, the EBIT. We will do this, in fact, in Q1. I would say we see the benefits of Genesis now going, falling through, I would say, the P&L already, of course, in the beginning of 2026. Then you have, I would say, some contract wins.
I'm not going to go over, but I would say we are stabilizing, I would say, Germany. as I say, we estimate that the rebound will happen in the course of this year. Now, North America is probably the most difficult, let's say, region. In fact, the start of the year was probably lower than anticipated, but we are signing, in fact, a lot of new contracts, and the book-to-bill is 160, so it's big. definitely now we estimate that we're going to ease, let's say, this contraction of revenue in quarters. You can see below some big wins. The biggest one, of course, is CNA, and also we have another one, C&MI at $30 million, as you can see below on the bottom, I would say, of the page 17 is France. France is still also challenging.
Remember also that we didn't have a budget in January and February, so it freezes a lot of our public and defense customer, and public and defense in France is 40% of the revenues. We know that the start of the year is probably, of course, lower than anticipated in the budget for us. We have some very good signs. For example, with SNCF. SNCF, when I arrived last year, they said that they want to stop to work with Atos, and finally we work. We won a very big contract with them. It means that now the doors are open, as I say, in many customers. Gigalis also, it's a big contract we have won also for cyber. You can see also other, I would say, wins and qualifications. U.K. on page 18.
That's the rebound of the U.K., and also the profitability also is skyrocketing, as you can imagine. We are very happy, and there is more to come. I think we have won also a big contract in Q2 that will be probably public. I would say we are quite confident right now in the U.K. As I say, that's the first region now to come back to growth, and there will be more, of course, in the coming quarters. Last, the international markets on page 19. We have taken out the 28, 30, that's Latin America. In fact, without Latin America, it's around EUR 220 million, so -12%. It's mainly, in fact, impacted by one client in Asia. In fact, that is stopping the C&MI contract because they want to manage internally, I would say, their data.
The good news is that we suffered in fact in 2025, and we continue to suffer in 2026, but at the end of the year, this rundown is completely finished. It means that we are quite confident that we will restart growing, in fact, in the course of 2027. You can see also some wins that we have in Singapore, Spain and Slovak governments. Last, in fact, and it was not international, sorry. Is, of course, at Benelux, so Benelux or BNN, what we call with Atos. This is also a slow, let's say, start of the year, but we are, I would say, quite confident also that this region is doing very well. We have a win also, deal with EUROCONTROL, in the automotive sector with DAF and also in the financial services, as you can see. Now, Eviden, as you can see on page 21.
Without Bull, in fact, the revenues were EUR 71 million and we are roughly at EUR 69 million. It's roughly flattish. In fact, we have been impacted by the war because part, for example, for Vision AI, a big chunk of our business is in Middle East. We definitely think that it will be much better after the war concludes. When, nobody knows. I would say we have a good traction in terms of also contracts, and we are very confident that we accelerate both in the book-to-bill going forward, and also, I would say, in the top line. That's it for me. I give the floor now to Jacques-François de Prest for the liquidity position.
Thank you, Philippe, and hi, everyone. On page 23, as a reminder, the publication of the quarterly liquidity position is part of our regular reporting requirements, which have been defined and agreed with the group's financial creditors. The certificates are available on our website. Our liquidity position remains strong at the end of March, thanks to the limited estimated cash consumption over the last quarter. In Q1, the net change in cash is estimated to be approximately - EUR 47 million, which includes EUR 71 million spent related to the restructuring. This figure is reported without any use of the accounts receivable factoring or without any specific optimization on trade payables. This number is also reflecting the results before the estimated impacts, so we take them from the left to the right on the slide.
A, the change in the unsolicited payments received in advance of the invoice payment due date during the year. That's the - EUR 115 million. Then you have the exchange rate fluctuation, which amounts to approximately - EUR 2 million. You have the M&A impact, which is + EUR 257 million, and you have the debt repayment of - EUR 62 million. These amounts are excluded from the net change in cash, which I announced is a - EUR 47 million. That brings us, as a result, as of the end of March 2026, to have the Atos Group's liquidity at EUR 1,736,000,000, which is to be compared with EUR 1,705,000,000 at the end of December 2025. This is more than EUR 1 billion above the minimum requirement of EUR 650 million set by the credit documentation. With that, I'll now hand over to Philippe.
Okay, just for the outlook, I give you the numbers now with the FX at the end of March. It's a little change just because, of course, as you can imagine, the dollar is weaker. It gives in euro, let's say, a smaller revenues at the end of 2025 with the FX of March. We are still at EUR 7.1 billion. Compared to EUR 7.1 billion, of course, at the end of 2025, EUR 312 million as the EBIT. We are now close, as I said, to 56,000 people without India. We are now in 54 countries of operation. As I say, we continue also to close some countries, w e'll be below 50 at the end of the year. Now, if I go on page 26 for the guidance of this year.
Remember that at the beginning of this year, we say we will try to touch a positive, let's say, organic growth with the start of this year and the economic sentiment, we estimate that it's not going to be possible. We have narrowed, I would say, the range. It's between -1% and -5%. We still keep, I would say, the worst case at -5%. We think we do probably better than that. The best case, let's say, to -1%. Roughly -3% revenue. Operating margin confirmed at 7%. As I say, we have more than tripled the EBIT, in fact, in Q1. We are very confident on the profitability of this group for 2026, of course, and positive net change in cash. In fact, you've seen that we have already spent EUR 70 million with Genesis in Q1.
Genesis this year is probably between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million. We have in fact spent more than, I would say, the average that we should have by quarter. It's normal because we are accelerating the plan. Of course, the EBIT of the Q1 is always the lowest. It means that it's a good sign, I would say, for the cash going forward. I would say for 2028, next year and 2028, we are still looking for an acceleration of the top line, still targeting around 10% of profitability, and of course the deleveraging will continue. In fact, I would say with this year, the deleveraging in fact will be seen already in fact in 2026, and in fact with hundreds of millions of cash next year, because in fact the Genesis in terms of cash outs next year will be very small.
We will produce a lot of cash to either do M&A or deleverage, I would say, the balance sheet. With that, I can now, with Jacques-François, take any questions that you have on the Q1 results. Q1 performance, it's not really results because we don't produce the P&L.
Thank you, management. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask questions on the phone, please press star one and one and wait for your name to be announced. To cancel your request, you can press star one and one again. One moment for the first question. Our first question comes from the line of Frederic Boulan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Philippe Salle. Good morning, Jacques-François de Prest. Thanks for the questions. If I can ask two, firstly on demand, so you flag a strong order book, momentum, number of big contract wins. Can you discuss a bit the nature of discussions with clients and the impact on demand from the current macro? I mean, you flag that for Eviden, but we begin to hear any broader impact on the overall demand environment. And then specifically around pricing, would be good to understand where you see price points in the deals you've been signing recently, how it's comparing versus, let's say, a year ago. And is this pricing driven by any kind of competitive or AI factors? Thank you.
On the second point, Frederic, for example, CNA, the margin is 25%, which is roughly in line with the former margin that we have with CNA. Remember, that's the goal we have, is to be around 25%-26%. It's very important. I'm very adamant on this. I think that probably, and that's why also the book-to-bill also of last year and this year is probably lower than what we can achieve because we are still watching very closely the margin that we want to produce. Profitable growth, remember, is the goal for us. It's not very difficult to buy some contracts, but I would say it's forbidden, of course, as you can imagine, since now beginning of 2025. In fact, in some contracts, for example, like CNA, and it probably goes with the sentiment of the clients. Everybody, of course, is talking about AI.
Nobody probably understands the impact of AI, because it's very difficult right now to see what is going to happen. There are a lot of course, disappointments, in fact, with some clients trying to put some agents, because it's not that easy. My view is that Agentic is the new revolution. It's coming. It will take probably 2 years-5 years to be really in force. Probably more in the U.S. at the beginning and after in Europe. We see that in these contracts, for example, Fortinet, so HR contracts, we're going to give, for example, some savings after year 3 and year 4, let's say, in terms of Agentic. In fact, as I probably said already, since we don't know exactly the number of savings, in fact, we're going to share part of the saving that we're going to produce.
It's difficult, in fact, for clients and even for us to see the impact, the real impact, I would say, of the savings we're going to have. There are a lot of studies, I'm sure that you've read some of them, saying that we can divide by two, by three, by whatever. Unfortunately, there is one cost that nobody knows. It's the price per token. We definitely think that this will probably skyrocket in the future. It means that in fact there is a price for agents. There is probably, of course, less people cost in the contracts going forward, but the sum of the two right now is still, I would say, unknown. I would say everybody's talking about AI.
Everybody wants to us, let's say, to give some rebates or not rebates, but I would say to apply, let's say, agentic in our delivery and then give, of course, but I would say it's too soon, even with the big contracts we are signing right now. They understand that there will be an impact, but it's too soon to say that there is a big impact. As I say, for us, we're going to protect the margin. We estimate that the margin of 25% probably will be more after that. Then we can probably produce more output on a given framework. Now, the sentiment I would say of clients, it depends on the sector. I think there are some sectors that are probably more difficult than the rest. Automotive is one, transportation, luxury goods.
Other sectors, we don't see, in fact, a big impact on right now. Let's say the economy, the banking sector, insurance sector, defense, of course, and public, where we are very strong, healthcare. I would say it's a mixed sentiment, but you know that in economy, unfortunately, the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty, it doesn't give, I would say, the sentiment to clients that they can spend more specifically with AI. I would say that for the moment, probably there is a postponement of some contracts or projects. They are looking exactly, probably waiting, let's say, to see how the economy is going to rebound after the war. There is more wait and see in some clients, let's say, for some projects. That's what we see for the moment. My view is that the projects will happen.
In fact, if you, of course, extend or postpone, let's say by 3 months-6 months, it has an impact, in fact, for the 2026 year. Then, of course, it will be good news for, let's say, end of this year and, of course, in 2027.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Okay.
Once again to ask a question please press star one and one. Our next question comes from Sam Morton from Invesco. Please go ahead.
Hi. Two questions, please. The first is the bond buyback. I think you've got like EUR 62 million of the 1.5 lien. Certainly the last time we spoke, I think you'd been buying back the second lien. I'm trying to understand what's the change in strategy there. Then secondly, any update you can provide on the refinancing, that would be really helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. I think Jacques is going to answer your two questions.
Hello, Sam.
Yes.
Yes, the change of strategy is more or less in line, I think, with what we announced in the Q4 publication call, where we said that, at the end of fiscal year 2025, we thought the second lien was really very low actually, and bought opportunistically a little bit of that. Last year this was EUR 2.5 million of second lien. Now, when we look at the NPV, the second lien has gone up. It's true that the EUR 62 million amount we have bought back on the market, on the open market, was only 1.5-lien bonds. Again, we noticed that, how can I say? This bond was momentarily trading below due to geopolitical, the situation, nothing to do with the performance of the company. Since we had a little bit excess of cash, we decided to take advantage of that.
We signaled that, and we implemented this program, which is not finished by the way. It might be pursued in the coming weeks or month. That's the first question. On the second question, the refi, well, we are monitoring the market. The company is ready. We have nothing to announce today, other than, we are checking how the market is evolving. We have some banks advising us. When we think there is a good window allowing for a good operation and a good pricing, you and investors might hear from us.
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
You're welcome.
Thank you for the question. One moment for the next question. Next question comes from the line of Laurent Daure from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Morning, gentlemen. I have two easy, quick questions. The first is on revenue trends during the year. I think if I take the midpoint of your guide -3 , how do you see the phasing from Q1 to Q4? What are the main drivers of improvement? Do you still have some contract ramp-up that makes the revenue trend much better, maybe starting in Q2, or is it comps impact? Any granularity on how you see the year shaping would be helpful. My second question is on the bond buyback. To clarify, you made EUR 62 million. Are you cautiously looking at your balance sheet? Could you do much more than EUR 62 million, like EUR 200 million-EUR 300 million? Is it a question of liquidity of those bonds? Anything on the strategy on that will also help. Thank you.
Yeah. In fact, we estimate Q2 will be around -6, and then positive in Q3 and Q4. The positive, then you calculate whatever you want. The central scenario, let's say at -3, for me is okay. Of course, if you have -11, -6, then plus, if you divided after that by 4, you are probably around this -3%. I would say the central is around -3. The worst case is at -5. For the bond buybacks, the question for us, of course, we have probably plenty of cash, as you can imagine.
Also, in fact, we're going to produce some cash this year. If we start at -EUR 50 million, of course, we're going to produce EUR 50 million+ now in the coming quarters. We want to buy, in fact, the 1.5L bond, in fact, and that's the one we are looking at, that is below 100. I think it's a good, let's say, buy for the group, because, it's cheaper than, I would say the par, in fact, for the bonds. Remember that the bond is on 9% yield. Remember that we are also looking at refinancing, so that's why we have to be a little bit cautious between the refinancing.
Remember also that we have some repayments of the 1.5L with the proceeds of M&A that should occur, in fact, at the end of the year. It's an equation, I would say, with all these variables. We will see if we continue to buy back bonds or we refinance first, and then we continue to buy back also. We will see.
At the end of this year, you have to pay back with this half of your proceeds from M&A, is it right?
Exactly. The proceeds of Worldgrid, the proceeds of Latin America, of Ideol. Of course, it's small amounts for the two, and the proceeds of Bull. It could be EUR 500 million +. Remember that we have this EUR 500 million + cash out that will happen at the end of the year.
May I compliment? Laurent, t his is as part of the credit documentation. We have a couple of moments in time, in the near future, where we are going to do the liquidity test. There is a bar at EUR 1.1 billion of liquidity. At the end of June, we are testing that on the forward-looking basis, meaning that the company will do our forecast internally, and the amounts which are above EUR 1.1 billion at the end of December, we will use them to reimburse, as a mandatory early repayment, the 1.5 lien tranche. That's the first test. The second test is we take the liquidity position, the actual liquidity position at the end of December.
Again, against the EUR 1.1 billion, the amounts coming from the M&A proceeds will be used to repay early the 1.5 lien capped at the amount which leaves us above the EUR 1.1 billion position. I hope it's clear.
To be even clearer, if you do all that, what is your best estimate in terms of interest savings in 2027 versus 2026 at group level?
I'm afraid there are too many unknowns in the equation to give you a number.
Okay.
We need to wait. If we do the refinancing, there are a lot of things that could happen again in the course of this year, so it's too soon to give you already, let's say, a guidance on interest rates for 2027. We can probably give this with the Q3 results. Probably in October, I think we'll have a better view.
Okay. Looking for it. Thanks.
Yeah.
One moment for the next question. Our next question comes from Benoit de Broissia from Keren Finance. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. I have just one very quick question. If you had one block contract in the U.K., involving Aegon. I noticed that Aegon sold its U.K. subsidiary a few weeks ago. Do you think that you could renegotiate with the purchaser the contract you have and that is set to terminate in a few years, in 2034, 2033, if I'm not wrong?
It's a very good question. Yes, the end of the contract is 2034. Yes, you have noticed that Aegon UK has been sold. We are talking now to the buyer. It will be in May. In fact, we need to wait. Of course, the buyer has already a platform. The good news is that, do they want to keep only one platform or not? Then stop the platform of Aegon, which then, of course, will stop the contract. It's too soon, because of course, we haven't talked yet, I would say, to the buyer. We will have, of course, a better view in the coming months. I think for us it's a good news, because I definitely think that they will not keep. In terms of economies of scale, it doesn't make sense for them, I would say, to have two platforms.
I think that their platform also is very efficient. We will see how they want to play this. There is a possibility, effectively, that they ask us to stop the platform that we have and then transfer the data to their new platform. It means that the contract can end in the course, for example, of 2027. We will see. I don't know yet. It's too soon, but it's a very good question and it gives a good opportunity for us, yes.
Okay. Thank you. That's all on my side.
For the questions. Our next questions will come from the line of Ryan Flew from PVTL Point . Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just one quick one from me. You've given quite clear guidance on sort of the cash add backs or the adjustments to net change in cash to get to a true sort of unlevered or pre-debt repayment cash generation. Can you just help steer us on your 2026 guidance? Clearly, there's a range there, but it feels from the adjustments you've discussed that actually the net change in cash will be considerably better than just positive. Just any further sort of color you could give would be really helpful.
Go on, Jacques.
Well, Ryan, thanks for your trust and your faith. At this stage, our commitment and our guidance is to be free cash flow positive. I'm sorry, I will not deviate from that. Bear in mind that we have, Philippe mentioned, the Genesis cash out impact is between EUR 150-EUR 200, so that's not nothing. We have all the other lines of the cash flow statement, which are still consuming some cash. Yes, we're shooting for more, but our commitment is to be free cash flow greater than zero.
As you say, it's probably a conservative guidance, let's say.
Got it. Cool. Thank you.
Thank you for the questions. One moment for the next question. Our next question comes from Derric Marcon from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, guys. I hope you hear me well. Two questions from me. The first one on the book-to-bill. I just want to understand if the 87% is applied to the reported figures or the fully planned scope. In this book-to-bill, talking about in absolute terms, what's the proportion between renewal and new business? That would be helpful to have this figure. My second question is on the M&A, the EUR 257 million you mentioned, can you re-explain what is included in this figure? Thank you.
Okay. The 0.87, it's Atos and Eviden. Atos only is 0.89. Because as I say, Eviden has suffered from the war more than, I would say the impact is more influenced, I would say, than Atos. Eviden is more Europe, Middle East, in fact. That's why probably I think the impact is higher. We definitely think that the rebound will come, but, of course, we need to have more, let's say, stability. The book-to-bill between renewals.
From the go forward perimeter or on the reported perimeter?
Yeah, the go forward-
1.7 or the EUR 1.6 billion.
No, it's only on the perimeter without Latin America and Bull. 87, 89. 87 is the go forward and the 89 is only Atos. Okay? It's Atos without Latin America. 87 is with Eviden, without Bull. Then the renewals versus, we don't have this number available right now. I cannot tell you. We will come back to you on this one. Remember also, yeah, you're right, that with renewals, of course, as I say, it inflates also the book-to-bill. That's why it's a proxy for the book-to-bill. Be careful on this. It's not because the book-to-bill is below 100 that we're not going to grow on the company. I definitely think that it's possible. In fact, we have shown this in the U.K.
For Bull, so Bull, in fact, remember there is a lump sum of EUR 300 million at the beginning, +2 earn-outs. The EUR 300 million is the EV, the EUR 250 million is the equity. In fact, we went from EV to equity without the provisions and the pensions. Okay? It means that the EUR 250 million was the equity check that we add for Bull without the 2 earn-outs. The EUR 250 million, we take out the carve-out cost. We estimate around EUR 50 million. A part of it was expense, I would say, in the course of 2025, the rest, of course, in Q1.
We estimate around EUR 50 million, so it means that the net cash for us is close to EUR 200 million. Okay? Remember also that Bull has a negative cash flow in Q1. We don't know how much. We need to take this also into account. The EUR 200 million will be probably less, EUR 170 million-EUR 180 million. I don't know yet exactly how much. As I said, it depends on the working capital we're going to have on Bull, but it's quite tricky for us to calculate the working capital of Bull because in fact, for some of activities of Bull, they were on the same company as Atos or the other, Eviden.
And that's why even on the bank accounts, unfortunately, we need to look line by line, on the cash, I would say, to reconstruct, let's say, working capital. And that's why we're going to give you the figure with the H1 figure, in fact. That's roughly EUR 200 million without carve-out cost and I would say equity check, probably less with the cash outflow of Bull in Q1. And then we still have the earn-outs.
The first one is maximum EUR 50 million, and we estimate we can gain around, let's say EUR 40 million+ . We will see. I would say, they need to close their accounts. It's, I would say, linked to the gross margin of Bull. The second earn-out is on the EBIT of Bull in 2026. Of course, as you can imagine, the EBIT of Bull in 2026 is not in my hand, unfortunately. It's difficult to see what is going to happen on the second earn-out. We will see what happens on the first one. It's going to be a negotiation that it will start, I would say, after the closing of the accounts. Unfortunately, Bull is not very, let's say, quick on the closing accounts. We will have probably numbers after the summer.
Philippe, to get to the 257 mentioned in the liquidity position, so you have Bull EUR 200 million after carve-out, if I understood correctly, plus other things like Scandi or Latin America.
No. Sure.
Yeah. I can say the angle Philippe took was the angle of explaining the story for Bull. Now, in the carve-out costs, some of that has been spent in 2025 already, a little portion in Q1 2026, and there is a bit more to come in the rest of 2026. The vast majority of the EUR 257 million you can see is coming from Bull. The vast majority of that. You have then a +EUR 10 million and a -EUR 10 million, which comes from the disposal of some other relatively small assets and some deduction for the carve-out cost for Cartier, but you can assume that 95% of that is Bull.
Okay. Latin America and Scandi will come later in the year? Am I right?
No, Scandi has been closed already. That's what I was referring to as other proceeds. That has been completed in Q1 already. For Latin America, the closing is scheduled in the coming weeks, so there is not a penny yet of proceeds from Latin America in our Q1 numbers.
Okay. That's perfect. Thank you. Thank you both.
Thank you for the questions. We have no further questions from the line. Allow me to hand the call back to management for closing.
Okay. Can you ask one more time if there is other questions or not, and then we can close.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask question, you can press star one and one.
Okay. If there are no more questions, thank you everybody, for this morning. We have some, let's say a small roadshow, I would say, with some investors today and tomorrow. We of course remain at your disposal if you have any questions. Overall, I would say we are very confident now on the rebound of the company. I'm very pleased, I would say, on the results, and very confident that this year of the rebound, and in terms of cash flow, I think there is no surprise for us, neither on, I would say, the profitability and cash flow. The rebound will occur in the course of H2. Next time, I will talk to you end of July now. Have a good day and see you in three months. Bye-bye.
That does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.