Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fifth Deep Dive call dedicated to Commercial and Personal Banking in France with members of the top management of BNP Paribas. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on bnpparibas.ir's website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star and one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would like now to hand the call over to Bénédicte Thibord, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madame.
Good afternoon. We are delighted to welcome you to our fifth Deep Dive call dedicated to the launch of a new strategic plan for commercial and personal banking activity in France. I now pass on the mic to Lars.
Thanks, Bénédicte, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm also pleased to welcome you alongside Thierry Laborde, CEO, Head of Commercial and Personal Banking Services, to our Deep Dive call on Commercial and Personal Banking in France, so-called CPBF in short. We are here today together with Isabelle Loc, Head of CPBF, Maryline Anglaret, CFO of CPBF , and Pierre Ruhlmann, Chief Operating Officer of CPBF. Today, we will present our strategy to bring CPBF to our target of more than 17% pre-tax return on notional equity, detailing our strong positioning, our key markets, and our transformation to support our financial trajectory. Having said this, I now hand over to Thierry to take you through the key elements of the CPBF strategic plan. Thierry.
Thank you, Lars. Good afternoon, all of you. Let me begin by positioning CPBF within the group, and more specifically within CPBS, highlighting its strategic role and performance trajectory. As you know, CPBS accounts for about half of the group revenues and RWA, but a lower than group average profitability at 12.7% only in 2024. CPBS leverages its leading business positions in Europe, in particular in corporate and private banking, and plays a pivotal role in our integrated model with cross-sell revenues with other business lines representing EUR 12.1 billion, 25% of the group's revenues, and up by 8.2% from 2023. CPBS confirms its strategic plan despite headwinds such as a sharp increase in the rate environment, which has weighted on CPBS profitability.
In response, we are adapting with selected axes of focus, accelerating the profitable growth in our specialized businesses, delivering the strategic roadmap for CPBS and personal finance with a focus on driving profitability towards both entities only, more than 17% by 2028. These actions will add one point to Group ROTE by 2028, of which 0.5% by 2026. We presented to you a couple of weeks ago the trajectory for personal finance. Today, zooming in on CPBS, which accounts for about 25% of CPBS revenues, we have decided to launch a new strategic plan. Why now? Because the rate scenario becomes more favorable for CPBS and the current environment is well-suited to transform our operating model.
As you will understand, during the Deep Dive, our growth and profitability strategy rests on three levels: strengthening our leading position in the corporate banking and private banking segments with our exceptional franchises, repositioning our retail activity strategically, and transforming our model and improving profitability with targeted technology investments and efficiency levels. I will now hand over to Isabelle Loc and her team, who will elaborate on our strategy.
Thank you, Thierry, and good afternoon, everyone. This new strategic plan for CPBF is designed to align with the evolving needs of our clients while enhancing profitability and navigating the competitive landscape. I'm here on slide four. Indeed, we have two fantastic assets that are our leading corporate and private banking franchises. On corporate banking, where we are already leaders, especially on large and mid-caps, we want to be even stronger and grow our SME franchise. For private banking, we want to consolidate our leadership and accelerate our growth with digital private banking. For retail banking, we want to propose a new business model in a context of a French market dominated by volume-driven mutualist banks, acceleration of digitization, and a rise of competition from online banks and new banks.
Here, our ambition is to accelerate investments to enhance digital client experience, upgrade our client franchise, focusing on delivering value, and transform our coverage and operating model. In line with our new business model and ambition, we are adapting the branding of our retail banking activity, which I will explain in more detail on slide 18. Across our three businesses, we will improve profitability with a focus on targeted investments in both tech and AI and human expertise, as well as efficiency levers. Our target for this plan is to consolidate our leadership positions in high-value segments, offering best-in-class expertise, best-in-class quality of service, translating into an NPS above market average. Moving on now to slide five for our financial targets. Our aim is to reach a pre-tax revenue above 17% by 2028.
We anticipate for the 2024-2028 period a sharp rebound in revenues of more than 5% CAGR, not necessarily linear, but strong every year starting in 2025. NII will overtake fees as the main source of revenue growth. We will also have disciplined cost control, as we intend to offset the impact of inflation by net cost savings. Overall, this should lead to a draw effect between three and four points on average over the plan. Cost of risk is to remain below 25 basis points, starting from a high in 2024 due to a specific file. RWAs are to remain under control with a CAGR of two percent as we reallocate capital towards highly profitable activities such as Corporate and Private banking. Now, let me give you an overview of the business in slide six. We have a unique positioning on the French market.
CPBF is the group entry point for high-value segments. These high-value segments account for around 70% of revenues, thanks to number one positions on Corporate and Private Banking and two complementary retail brands, BNP Paribas and Hello bank!. CPBF is also at the heart of BNP Paribas' integrated model and a key contributor to the group's cross-selling revenues, with nearly a quarter of group cross-sell, or about EUR 4 billion in 2024. I will now hand over to our CFO, Maryline Anglaret .
Thank you, Isabelle, and good afternoon, everyone. On slide seven, you will see that our model is based on our ability to attract client assets throughout the cycle with a roughly five percent CAGR increase since 2019, including a strong performance of life insurance. Around 50% of customer funds are off-balance sheet, resulting in elevated fee generation capability. Fees account for about half of our revenues and are well-balanced between, on the one hand, the day-to-day recurring fees, such as payments, cash management, and banking services, and on the other hand, more volatile fees, but offering strong growth prospects, such as life and non-life insurance fees and financial fees. Let me now turn to slide eight and sum up the challenging market conditions that trigger the need to accelerate our transformation.
Immediately post-COVID-19, profitability was improving toward acceptable level, but the sharp rise in interest rates and the change in customer behaviors cut short the profitability rebound. While we have outperformed the market in NII generation and have managed to improve the cost-income ratio since pre-COVID-19, the profitability level is still not satisfactory enough and not consistent with the group standards. Many of you know the reasons why NII was under pressure, and we remind them on the bottom right. Slide nine summarizes our trajectory, which Isabelle presented earlier, namely, more than five percent CAGR revenue growth, years 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 should be above, three to four point draws effect on average over the plan, limited cost of risk below 25 bips , and limited two percent CAGR RWA growth, with a focus on the most profitable activities. I will now present each of these building blocks in more detail.
If we focus on revenue generation on slide 10, you can see that we expect fees and NII to grow at a broadly similar pace this year, but starting in 2026, NII should significantly outpace the growth of fees. This is largely due to the fact that non-remunerated and, to a lesser extent, savings accounts will benefit from the delayed impact of higher rates. The main driver of NII is the amount of non-remunerated deposits, which are largely invested on various tenors averaging five to 10 years. In our trajectory, we assume a stable deposit mix following a sharp deterioration of our mix over 2022- 2024, where current accounts represented nearly 70% of our total deposits and now account for about half. Our targets are based on reasonable assumption of volumes and rates that you can see here, and we provide sensitivities so you can build your own scenarios.
Just a point, the long-term rate indicated here is the 10-year swap versus ESTER. These assumptions are in line with current market forecasts. If we now move on to slide 11 for the cost component of our plan, we could define it as ambitious to fund our strategic priorities, dedicated to generate a strong positive draws effect of three to four points, and respectful of our social contract with employees. Our cost plan is based on several net cost savings, but also on investments and transformation. Let me detail our main initiatives. If I start with our cost-based saving ambition, it will be based on first optimization of our cost base. This will come from streamlining the central functions, continuing to optimize our real estate footprint. We now have 1,545 months down significantly from 10 years ago.
While we are a relatively small network in France, we intend to continue to adjust the size of the footprint to clients' needs. Indeed, since COVID-19, the behavior of our clients has changed, and we must continue to adjust to these changes. We will also control more tightly external expenses with reinforced governance. Our cost savings ambition will also come from mutualization when we can. For example, with our ATM network or our partnership with BPCE on card payment processing, which will reduce the cost of a EUR 17 billion transaction both groups process annually by approximately 20%. We are working on other initiatives that will be unveiled at a later stage. Finally, we will continue our industrialization and our technological efforts.
We will reduce our cost to serve for client healthcare, continue the improvement of our back offices, and improve intelligence, artificial, and digital capability in order to provide our customers with both a seamless experience between our various channels while giving them access to our best-in-class product offering. Beyond our cost savings, there is also a significant ambition for growth and investments. This will involve leveraging more of CIB and Wealth Management platforms, accelerating digital client acquisition, and enhancing the expertise in our branch network. These investments are included in our trajectory, and we anticipate an annual reduction in FTEs of 2.2%-2.5% over 2026 - 2030 with our departure plan. Regarding 2025-2026, there will be a net reduction, but we are currently discussing with the works council and cannot provide details at this stage.
Let me now discuss the outlook for our cost of risk in slide 12. We expect the cost of risk to remain within 25 bips annually throughout the plan, marginally down on 2024, which adds one large specific file. Our track record shows little volatility and a low level of risk with very few years outside of the 15-25 bips range. The low level is due, on the one hand, to the fact that mortgages and private banking customers base have a cost of risk of around five bips or less, but also, on the other hand, thanks to our positioning on clients with stronger growth prospects, around 70% of our corporate exposures are investment grade. As it is the case for the group as a whole, we have a good sector diversification, which limits concentration risk.
I will now hand over to Lars to discuss our RWA trajectory.
Thank you, Maryline. Indeed, our RWA trajectory, if I synthesize it, it assumes a two percent CAGR growth, so two percent over the period that we consider. This is basically driven by four levers. Let's look at them, all four of them. First of all, what has to be reminded is that our capital will be allocated to areas within CPBF with strong growth prospects and high ROE. This includes our private bank and our private equity business, so-called BNP Paribas Development, which generates a RONE above 20%. It also includes our corporate franchise. Together, these segments will receive most of our organic growth. That's the first lever. If you look at the second lever, it is the simplification of our optimization efforts via SRT on one hand, or credit insurance, and this within the existing regulatory framework, which means the underlying RWA growth will be minimal.
The recent proposals by the European Commission on SRT go into the right direction, and we await finalization of the discussions before being able to fine-tune our ambition and probably step it up. CPBS has been a significant contributor to group securitization and related savings today, with around EUR 10 billion at the end of 2024, or about a quarter of what we achieved at group level. Obviously, the mortgage book is not ripe for securitization, given thin margins, but our corporate exposures clearly are. That is the second lever. That basically limited growth intrinsic. The third brick is operational risk. As you know, under CRR III, the so-called Basel IV or finalization of Basel III, the operational risk is now driven by revenues and is rather mechanical.
Given our revenue ambition, we anticipate that operational risk will increase, impacting the growth rate of RWA by 40 basis points, so 0.4% annually. I talked about the intrinsic growth with securitization, which is probably a tad more than 0.5%, and this operational risk is a tad less than 0.5%. That is three. The fourth and final is that we have modeled some regulatory impacts, which we flagged in our group trajectory at the beginning of the year. We announced that we anticipate that there would be some inflation from the regulatory point, and part of it is anticipated to be within CPBS. Overall, we assume that it should represent around half of the overall increase in RWA at BCEF.
While this number is significant for BCEF, it represents at group level the equivalent of seven basis points of Group Common Equity Tier 1 cumulative over the four years. This is well within the capital planning we showed in February. This is nothing new. This is something we had in the overall planning. If we look a bit in detail, a significant part of this impact is expected this year and next. These are the four levers which should lead to an RWA increase CAGR of two percent over the period. Having said this, I will now hand it back to Isabelle for the business priorities.
Thank you, Lars. We will now detail our strategic priorities for each of our businesses, starting with corporate banking on slide 14. We want to pursue our winning strategy, particularly our commitment to maintaining our leadership in the large and mid-cap segments while accelerating growth on the SME franchise. Our remarkable 97% penetration rate in the SBF 120 is an excellent position to leverage from. This highlights our unique integrated model that allows us to support our CPBF clients in their international expansion with the support of our extensive presence in over 50 countries and accompany our CIB international clients in their development and investments in France in a One Bank approach. The second pillar of our strategy focuses on scaling our expertise platforms. We have a strong sector expertise.
Beyond strategic areas such as defense, we are clearly a number one player with innovative companies that we want to support with an objective of more than 5,000 clients by 2030, in particular, fast-growing AI companies. We offer our corporate clients a full-fledged service leveraging on 900 bankers and 350 experts within 39 business centers throughout France, complemented by 65 innovation centers. In addition, we will also leverage on BNP Paribas Development, our private equity business with high return prospects. In terms of profitability, the objective is to accelerate growth at marginal cost. Here, three major drivers. First, maintain our disciplined approach to capital consumption and focus on increasing the share of recurring fees on businesses such as transaction banking and insurance. Second, leverage data and AI and continue our tech investments and the automation of our key processes.
This plan relies on robust expertise to remain a number one player in France on corporate banking, ranging from investment banking advisory to transaction banking, and in particular, on league tables that we share with CIB, of number one on each of these segments: M&A, ECM, DCM, loans, cash management, and trade finance. Now on slide 15. In private banking, we are also number one in our market with EUR 139 billion AUM in 2024 and expect to grow by over five percent CAGR by 2030. In 2025, we also won several Best Private Bank awards in France, as well as four other Euromoney awards for Best Private Bank for Next Gen, Discretionary Portfolio Management, Alternative Investments, and Investment Research. Our growth is coming from several areas and all reflect our integrated model. First, external client acquisition on upper affluence, multifamily offices, and private holdings.
Our expertise in CIB Wealth Management and the upcoming acquisition of AXA IM will deliver significant added value products and services. This should enhance our positioning towards clients, for example, on discretionary portfolio management, for which we aim to collect more than EUR 12 billion AUM by 2030. Secondly, and in synergy with corporate banking, we will target entrepreneurs to offer them private banking solutions. Lastly, a unique ability to accompany our clients in their growth journey with a regular upstreaming of our retail clients. In 2024, we upstreamed 7,300 households to Private Banking, illustrating also the quality of our retail franchise. We will also accelerate our digital business and tech investments with two levers. First, with an acceleration of our e-Private relationship model, targeting clients looking for full remote interactions, autonomy, on-demand expertise with dedicated private bankers and experts available six days a week.
Second, with tech investments for targeted marketing, ultra-personalized advisory, and a new Wealth Management IT platform to offer dedicated investments and financing solutions for our high and ultra-high net worth individuals. Let's move now to slide 16 for our retail banking transformation, which is threefold. First, we will accelerate our digital business supported by tech investments in our mobile apps and digital journeys for client onboardings, sales, and daily banking. We aim at tripling our digital client acquisition to reach over 700,000 annual onboardings by 2030 and to multiply our digital sales by 10. Second, we will refocus on delivering value and expertise to our clients. We will continue to grow the portion of affluent clients, starting from 32%, which is already quite high in the market, and capitalizing on our private banking expertise while pursuing our investments in dedicated and highly trained advisors.
The third part is the deep transformation of our coverage and operating model to fit with our client needs. Let me start with how clients use our bank today. In 2024, nearly one billion digital connections through the app. We had 40 million remote connections and only 1.5 million in-person meetings in a branch. Our aim is to offer for the BNP Paribas brand a high-performing digital end-to-end daily banking, a responsive support with customer service, and for high expertise needs, a dedicated, highly trained advisor. This offer will be complementary with our full digital offer at Hello bank!. As our coverage model is evolving, we will also continue to adapt our branch network, keeping in mind we have one of the smallest networks in France already. Our goal is to secure the right level of expertise in each branch, which requires a critical size.
Our target is to have two-thirds of our branches with at least five people. All in all, this new retail value proposition will enable us to address rapidly evolving clients' needs, upgrade our client franchise, and grow revenues while reducing our cost to serve. On slide 17, we present how we will fully leverage the commercial and tech advantage of our digital brand, Hello bank!. Hello bank! was launched in 2013 to address clients with full digital autonomy, and it has reached last year the one million client milestone. This year, we will reach a positive operational gross operating income by the end of 2025. This includes client acquisition costs and excludes internal indirect costs. Our ambition for Hello bank! is to focus on value-driven priorities and reach more than two million clients by 2030.
The same way Corporate Banking, Private Banking, and Retail Banking are in synergy, Hello bank! is an integral part of our offer to support our clients at every step. Our key differentiator is our scalable platform, one single IT core banking system with one IBAN for our clients throughout their life cycle and fluid and digital client journeys across the group to subscribe to Cardif, Personal Finance, Arval, and so on. Let me share an example of a client journey within the CPBF model. A student enrolls in Hello bank!, launches his or her startup in an innovation center, and moves to BNP Paribas to develop his or her family wealth. As the innovative company grows into unicorn, the company will be covered as a large international corporate, and the entrepreneur will be offered a private banking service.
Now on slide 18, as I mentioned earlier, and to be consistent with our new value proposition, we are changing the name of Retail Banking to Individual and Entrepreneur Banking, placing our clients at the heart of everything we do. We recently launched and will gradually amplify a new outreach campaign with a brand positioning that combines service excellence, transformation, and high standards with a new tagline, "With you when your world changes." To connect with high-value clients, we are rolling out a premium and mass media campaign with a strong focus on both digital presence, in particular on social media and regional presence. I will now hand over to Pierre Ruhlmann, our Chief Operating Officer.
Thank you, Isabelle, and good afternoon, everyone. Moving on to slide 19. As previously mentioned, we have a strong ambition to accelerate acquisition and sales through digitalization. To achieve this, we will leverage all marketing technology tools to enhance client satisfaction and ultimately boost sales. This includes customer data, analyzing recent interactions regardless of the channel and adapting our offer accordingly, content supply chain, delivering relevant and efficient customer experience across all channels, both personalized and real-time, conversational with 24/7 personalized exchanges, maximizing customer engagement, ad management, enabling more precise yet industrialized targeted marketing campaign to ensure greater return on investment of each campaign, and at the last, digital journeys, prioritize a mobile-first and sometimes mobile-only approach to elevate experiences. This includes seamless offerings from both the other group entities and partners beyond banking products.
Moving now on to slide 20, our success will be driven by our agile tech and AI capabilities to better serve our clients and improve efficiency via three pillars. The first one, our organization is now operating at scale in an agile mode, which enables us to deliver better and faster with a strong client-oriented mindset, covering 95% of our customer journeys and IT applications and over 2,500 employees. As a result, the employee net promoter score for this COP has improved up to 12 points in H2 2024 versus H2 2022. Secondly, our IT system has been modernized and is much more resilient. Nearly all our applications are mutualized, or our apps have been rationalized and hosted on private clouds, and the number of IT incidents has been reduced by about 20% since 2021. Finally, the development of AI solutions remains core in achieving our strategic ambitions.
The maturity is progressing with strong collaboration between business teams, CPBF IT, and Group IT, with the aim to elevate the role of humans in the value chain, focusing on expert tasks. Moving on to slide 21, to date, we have deployed nearly 60 AI use cases into production, with about 20 more currently in development, covering both traditional AI and generative AI. This has been possible thanks to our close cooperation between business teams, CPBF IT and Group IT, as well as high-quality external partnerships, for instance, with Mistral AI. These use cases are defined using a value-driven approach, meaning they must contribute either to generating additional revenues or improving our operational efficiency or reducing cost of risk. As shown on this slide, these AI use cases impact a wide range of processes. Let me highlight a couple of examples.
IDP, which means Intelligent Document Processing for mortgages, is a solution that reads data from documents provided by the borrower during the loan approval process, such as sales agreement or income statement, to ensure data integrity and reduce, of course, back-office workload. Second one, fraud prevention, which identifies potentially unusual client transactions in real time to alert them and prevent fraud attempts, such as wire transfer or card fraud. Moving on now on to slide 22, achieving our strategic ambitions will also depend on strengthening and developing our external partnerships. In Securities Services, for example, with Crédit Agricole Titres since 2023 for custody activities. On ATMs, we will continue rolling out the cash services program with Crédit Mutuel and Société Générale Group's networks, enabling reduced costs, but also to offer better coverage, particularly in low-density areas and access to three times more cash points.
In payments, with two major initiatives, a strategic partnership with BPC Group to create a leading European payment processor, Estreem, able to handle 17 billion transactions per year, including 4.7 billion for CPBF. We will continue also to develop the Wero digital wallet. The goal is to offer a multi-payment solution with strong market potential, as demonstrated by its recent adoption by Revolut. Last, partnerships with Gambit for digital financial advice and shared Wealth Management platform to meet the needs of our high-net-worth clients. I will now hand over to Isabelle.
Thank you, Pierre. We are now on slide 23. Our success will rely on the expertise and engagement of our people, which is core to our transformation, and we will count on everyone with no departure plan. We strongly believe in our ability to continuously adapt our expertise and pursue thorough strategic workforce planning. To conclude on our strategic plan on slide 24, we aim to reach a profitability target by 2028, thanks to NII and revenue rebound combined with strong discipline on capital risks and costs, clear business priorities, leveraging and reinforcing our leading corporate and private banking franchises, while deeply transforming our individual and entrepreneur business line. Last, by fully leveraging our agile tech, AI capabilities on our partnerships and on our people to drive our transformation forward. I will now hand over to Thierry and Lars for closing remarks.
Thank you, Isabelle. We are now at the end of our presentation. We presented to you this month our plans for personal finance and CPBF, which together should add one percent to Group ROTE by 2028, including 0.5% by 2026. These two divisions matter to us as they represent almost 25% of our RWA, and they are one of the main drivers of our profitability improvements in the next few years. We hope that through the two deep dives, we demonstrated that our strong term-like growth will benefit from significant margin improvement. The expected plus five percent revenue growth CAGR between 2024 and 2028 is a key differentiating factor. It's based not only on a more favorable interest rate scenario for both businesses, but also on the strong commitment of the PF and CPBF teams to generate the right level of activity with the right level of margins.
As part of the group's efforts to generate those effects of 1.5 points in 2025 and 2026, these two businesses will contribute to a greater extent to the tune of three to four points. Cost of risk remains low and with little volatility, and capital consumption is tightly monitored with disciplined origination and RWA optimization. Our journey to higher profitability at CPBF is built on the prioritization of our client needs, technology investments, discipline, financial trajectory, while being respectful of our social contract with employees. I will now hand over to Lars.
Thank you, Thierry. Ladies and gentlemen, to conclude, BNP Paribas offers a strong defensive value profile. Its diversified model, both in terms of business sectors and country exposure, is reassuring. What's new is that BNP Paribas is one of the very few banks in Europe where top-line revenue is expected to grow by more than five percent CAGR over the period 2024 - 2026. Top-line growth matters, as you know, and this marks a real shift compared to 2024, when comparisons with other banks who fully benefited from the rate environment through their net interest income were more challenging. This growth trajectory is supported by key levers already in place in each division, so that growth is basically in the wings of the bank. The success of the CPBF strategic plan is a major component of these growth ambitions.
With this, I thank you for your attention, and I open to Q&A.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. Please leave your handset, ensure that the mute function on your phone is switched off, and that you are in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. We will take questions as many as time permits. Again, please press star and one to ask a question. The first question is from Benoit Valleaux, ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question, and thank you for the presentation. I have two questions related to Retail Banking, if I may. The first one is related to your footprint optimization. You mentioned a decrease in the number of branches from 2014 - 024. Do you have a target of number of branches by the end of the plan? Press mentioned a decrease of 500, and how fast do you plan to decrease your number of branches? A link to that, but not only, a link to the overall, I would say, reorganization of retail banking. Do you plan to book some restructuring charges, sorry, over the plan? The second question is related to Hello bank!. You reached one million clients last year. You plan to have more than two million clients in 2030.
Can you please share with us some profitability, sorry, target by the end of the plan? Thank you.
Thank you. I'll start with the footprint of branches. As you mentioned, we don't have a target in the number of branches, but we have a track record of adapting already our branches. Keep in mind, we are really starting from a point that is already low because we are here in slide 16. We are already one of the smallest networks in France, and this network is really focused on high-income areas, mostly urban, you know, Paris, Lyon, Marseille, for example. We are committed to continue to adapt our branch network to the use of our clients. Here, we won't have, let's say, a one-size-fits-all approach or a copy-pasting model. We will adapt region by region depending on our client needs and use of our networks to determine that.
One objective I can tell you is that we want to have most of our branches staffed with at least five people. Why do we do that? The first thing is we are convinced that is how we can deliver the best value and expertise to our clients. For that, you need to reach a critical mass or critical size in each branch. Secondly, and this is something that I am very attentive to, in terms of working conditions for our colleagues in the individual and entrepreneur banking, it allows them to have better working conditions, have fewer logistical issues, and also probably have a bit more access to remote working. That is for the branches. Now, if I go to, oh, you had one other question on restructuring charges. As Maryline indicated earlier, I think it is there. Thank you.
On slide 11, the transformation costs for the plan are fully allocated to CPBF. It is in our trajectory that we presented.
Okay.
So now.
Can we get on the other one?
Yeah. For Hello bank!, indeed, we reached a one million client milestone last year. For 2025, I mentioned that we have a positive gross operating income. You see that we are really value-driven, value-driven strategy. This is very consistent with, I would say, all our positioning within CPBF. It is value-driven. We aim to have at least two million clients by 2030, but we are going to look at profitability. Again, we will not have client acquisition, a number and a volume, and pay high acquisition costs for them, for example. Secondly, we look at the potential for all the bank and CPBF in particular to accompany our clients during his lifecycle. That is exactly the example I mentioned.
Really, when we look at a client, we also look at its potential to evolve between Hello bank!, BNP Paribas, or BNP Paribas Private Bank. So that's really how we look at it.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Pierre Chédeville, CIC. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation, Thierry. I would like to come back on slide 10 regarding the evolution of net banking income. Regarding fees, could we say, because the graph is not very clear in terms of figures, could you say that, for instance, fees would grow by less than, let's say, two percent compared to 3.5% the last five years in average? Could you say what would be the part of the increase of the NII if we say, for instance, that your revenues will increase by EUR 1.4 billion in the coming years till 2028, based on two-thirds of Private Banking, for instance? Could we say that EUR 1 billion could be on NII? Could you say a word regarding margin on credit? Because it's also your job to lend, as far as I know.
Regarding slide 11, if we do a little bit math, could you say that somewhere your cost-income ratio, which is a very important ratio for analysts, could be in the range of 64% compared to 70.5% in 2024? Is it reasonable to target this kind of cost-income ratio? Regarding the FTE trajectory, is it a net FTE trajectory, and is it just linked to demography, or because you said there's no departure plan, so I guess it's just demographic? Thank you very much.
Thanks a lot. Maybe I will first give you a few elements on fees and margin, and then I'll leave the floor to Maryline, and then I will take also the question, the FTE trajectory. On the fees, that's on slide 10. You can see that actually the revenue, the fees CAGR is continuing to be strong. Keep in mind that we have Corporate Banking and Private Banking who are already leaders in their markets, and sustaining that level of increase in fees is already quite a performance in terms of commercial performance. That's already quite ambitious. In individual and entrepreneur banking, we also have boosters with the digital sales that I mentioned on slide 16, I guess. All in all, also in terms of fees, we are an important contributor to group cross-sell.
There are also fees that are booked not only in CPBF, but also in other divisions, whether within CPBF or with IPS and CIB. The level of fees that is being generated by CPBF as the group entry point for high-value segments is actually also quite high, and we do expect it to grow over time as we leverage even more on our great product factory. One catalyst is the AXA IM offer, on which we do think that it offers even more opportunities in terms of synergies and cross-sell for fees. For the NII on credit margin, the NII is going to grow significantly, and I will let Maryline elaborate on that. In terms of credit, it is part of our offer and our way to support our clients in their needs, of course.
Here we have taken very conservative assumptions on the margins because as we are present on high-value customers, competition can be hard. We really took there very conservative assumptions. In terms of loan growth, we also had reasonable assumptions, and as you know, it is quite correlated to GDP growth. For example, for next year, the level of GDP growth from our economist department is at 1.1%. That is, I would say, quite reasonable. I leave the floor to Maryline.
Thank you, Isabelle. For fees, as reminded by Isabelle, fees generate around half of CPBF revenues and come from several categories. They are going to strongly increase in the years to come at a higher pace than the economic growth, but less than NII, as you can see on slide 10 in the chart on the top left. Just to remind you, a breakdown of fees, fees are well balanced between several categories. We have around 30% of our fees, which are financial fees, mainly from our Private Banking and Mass Affluent franchises, which are strategic targets. We have also another 30% generated by cash management and payment services targets, which are strategic in the plan with investment like Estreem or Wero to improve our offer and consolidate our position in a very competitive market.
We have also nearly 10% of fees coming from insurance and protection, a key area of improvement in the years to come as we will go on developing our offer. The last 30% are over banking fees and are expected to go as well. For the credit margin, in our trajectory, we have retained a reasonable assumption of loan growth with an average annual growth rate target of around one percent as we are focusing with a selective approach on best value-added clients. Our targets are based on a conservative assumption regarding the economic environment. For cost-income targets, based on our financial trajectory with five percent revenue growth and around three to four points average growth, our cost-to-income ratio is trending towards 60% by 2028. It is an improvement by 10 points over the plan.
Of course, these improvements will be higher if revenues are stronger or growth better, of course. Now for FTE's trajectory, I let Isabelle discuss this point.
Thank you, Maryline. I stay on slide 11. Indeed, the - 2.2%-2.5% FTE decrease on average each year from 2026- 2030 is a net decrease. How do we do that without a departure plan? First, in addition to our strong change management capabilities, we have natural turnover, as you mentioned, but it's not only retirements. It can be also regular mobility within the group. That's one explanation. The second is, you know, we have a culture of anticipating needs, analyzing current and future. This is something that we did.
Ladies and gentlemen, please hold the line. The conference will resume shortly. Thank you.
I do not know which part was covered, so I will just start over. The - 2.2-2.5% decrease that is mentioned on slide 11 is a net figure. We do that on average each year from 2026 - 2030. Indeed, it is without a departure plan. How do we do that? First, we have a strong change management capability. As you mentioned, we have natural turnover, but it is not only retirement, it can also be regular mobility. That is also one of the strengths of the group with a diversified business model. In terms of career path, this is something that has to be taken into account. Second, we have a culture of anticipating needs, current and future skills. That is how we want to proactively support our transformation.
On these points, and this is something that we discuss with our social representatives, we discuss how we can, within CPBF, continue to support even more our colleagues in terms of upskilling and reskilling, and also mobility, mobility from, let's say, client service to a branch or to Private Bank or to Corporate Banking. With this rise in expertise, and especially in the Individual and Entrepreneur Banking, we do think that mobility across businesses that is already working quite well will be even more increased. That is for the question.
The next question is from Delphine Lee, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for this very interesting deep-dive presentation. I've got two questions. On net interest income, if you don't mind just explaining a little bit better just the strong increase in the deposit margin that you expect. I think you mentioned that non-remunerated deposits are invested on five to 10 years, but any more disclosure that you could help just to understand that part? Because clearly, you've been conservative on lending volumes, on deposit growth, on margins on the asset side as well. If you could elaborate on the deposit margin, that would be useful. My second question is on capital. The seven basis points of model impact of headwinds, do you mind just explaining a little bit where that's coming from? Thank you.
Sure. I'll give the floor to Maryline.
Thank you, Isabelle. I will comment maybe more in detail with slide 10 regarding the NII evolution. Just some points for you to better understand our trajectory. The NII main driver is the deposit mix. The 2028 CPBF trajectory is based on a reasonable assumption of deposit growth. Nearly, it is one percent CAGR and an almost stable deposit mix. At constant volumes and stabilized interest rates, the key driver of the coming NII increase is the absolute level in medium to long-term rates. Consequently, in this scenario, the net interest margin should stabilize once the repricing is fully captured on the investment of deposits. In this context and in our projection, the steepening of the yield curve has a positive effect on the price signals and helps stabilizing the product mix.
Maybe I can add some points on this NII evolution and regarding the investment that we have shared. Our side deposits are invested on a long-term basis, ranging from five to 10 years. On average, it is seven years. Under this assumption, the repricing opportunity for us is the difference between the spot seven-year rate and the rolling seven-year rate. It is about 100 bips . This would mechanically give you an uplift of more than 100 bips on the deposits we invest. Therefore, between EUR 1 billion-EUR 1.5 billion of additional revenues seems realistic, all else being equal, of course. This positive effect on NII growth will progressively slow down after several years in our projection.
Finally, thanks to our investment to support our clients and, of course, our transformation, our business lines will continue to collect deposits and originate credits, and our revenues growth will continue. It is my answer for the first points regarding the NII and the evolution. For the RWA, I let Lars give you an answer.
On the RWAs, listen, this is an assumption that we have. What we see is in the day-to-day, there are several segments that are being reviewed. Reviewed, and that's basically what we see. If we take it, it's things like, what is it, it's mid-corps and whatever that is being reviewed. We take a conservative stance that in this, we could have an impact on the cost of risk, on the RWAs, on the modeling. That's basically what we assume. There is not much more we can say. It's basically an ongoing review where we have taken a stance. As I mentioned, that impact is taken up in the overall evolution that we announced.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Flora Bocahut, Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. I would like to come back on the NII. Again, on the slide 10, on the top left chart, actually, that is very useful. Really, the one question I still have is trying to understand, first of all, the main driver of the net interest margin expansion, because obviously, you talked about, I think, the replicating effect on your deposits, the steepening of the yield curve. Maybe given you expect on this chart, the NII will grow probably by a high single-digit percent per year from 2026 on a volume growth, both on the loan and deposit side, that is only one percent. You expect significant NIM expansion. Any other document you can give us to explain the drivers.
The one thing I'm also trying to understand there is why you expect a sudden acceleration starting in 2026, and could that even be the second half of this year? Thank you.
Maybe just before handing over to Maryline to give you, I would say, more details, I do not know if there are more details, actually, but to go over again the NII part, just wanted to give you an indication. We have NII and fees. If you just come back one slide before, we have a revenue trajectory that is actually quite ambitious with this revenue growth above five percent CAGR. You can see that it is nonlinear, right, with a top in 2026-2027. That also can give you more indication in terms of the absolute amount on which you can apply the NII and the fees part with the split that is indicated before. If that can be of any use. I leave the floor to Maryline.
Yes. Thank you, Isabelle. It is very important to keep in mind that first, the main driver of our revenues, yes, is the NII rebound. We will have a strong growth every year over the plan, but not linear, as you can see on slide nine. Regarding NII main driver, it is the deposit mix. It is really the first driver. We have a reasonable assumption regarding this. I can share with you additional information regarding the sensitivity of NII. Our trajectory is based on reasonable assumption of volumes and rates. You can see on slide 10, the rate scenario retained on our trajectory. Concerning the rate scenario, we have simulated the negative impact coming from a parallel shock of - 50 bip s starting from today.
The potential impact is increasing from around -EUR 100 million in 2026 to around -EUR 250 million in 2028. If we consider only a shock on rates of - 50 bip s for maturity up to two years, while the long-end rates stay at the level expected, the shock will be limited to one-third of the previous one, so around -EUR 30 million in 2026. In case of a higher level of long-term rates of + 50 bip s, 50 bips , sorry, from today, while the short-term rates stay at the level expected in our scenario, the positive impact will be around two-thirds of a global impact in case of a parallel shock of EUR 17 million in 2026. This reasonable assumption on interest rates confirms that the NII trajectory is sustainable, and it is a key component of the improvement of CPBS trajectory.
Just to remind you, the main driver is, yes, it's the deposit mix.
Maryline, maybe?
Maybe to complete your question for H2. Indeed, H2 will be stronger than what you already have for CPBF.
Maybe if I oversimplify, if you look at it, the net interest income is basically depending on how we redeploy the non-remunerated deposits. That is basically also what you see on slide 10. If you assume that those non-remunerated deposits, we redeploy them over a bit the period of the loan, so somewhere between five and 10 years, that means that out of the EUR 120 billion of non-remunerated that we have, do the math, there is like whatever, something like EUR 10 billion that we redeploy. Then on that EUR 10 billion that we redeploy, you basically apply the spread that you see on that same table. That is basically what you see. You see the impact of it being redeployed in the longer term, which is spread, which is higher than what we have today.
That is, if I simplify it to the core, that's the main driver for the pickup in the rates.
Okay. That is very useful. Thank you. Can I follow up with another question, actually, on the Livret A rate assumption that you made as part of the plan, including, obviously, for the decision that is expected in three weeks, and how big a driver this is for your plan?
Thank you. Maybe before handing over to Maryline, let me first remind you that when you look at CPBF, we are only talking about a very small fraction of our revenues, right? When you look at our overall revenues, we have Private Banking, Corporate Banking, and Individual and Entrepreneur Banking. Even within Individual and Entrepreneur Banking, the portion of assets of our clients that are invested in Livret A is actually not, I would say, not dominant. We are really talking here about a very specific point, and we have only five percent market share in Livret A, right? Maybe Maryline, you can answer on the question.
Yes. Thank you, Isabelle. Exactly, we have a limited market share of only five percent for Livret A. We presented an amount of around EUR 30 billion. Considering inflation and interest rate edges, the total impact of this evolution is not material for us, assuming the regulatory official formula is applied. The upcoming evolution of the fixing is already integrated in our trajectory.
Thank you.
The next question is from Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. I mean, I wasn't planning to ask this question, but following what Flora's question on Livret A, I mean, I understand the size and contribution of this in NII, but on the way down, all the pressure on NII, among other things, Livret A was mentioned as a driver of weakness of NII. On the way down, I'm surprised you pointed as a headwind on the way up, on the way up, or on the way that it's lower rates, it's not necessarily, it's marginal. I would like to hear that asymmetry, I would say, in terms of sensitivity. My main question was on actually the costs, because this is sizable for the group. I mean, when you say no departure plan and 2.2%-2.5% FTE decrease, can you share what the proportion is, internal transfer or from real departures?
Because if it is just moving around stuff, I mean, at the end, what we want to see is your cost actually improving. Specifically on this, in France, I want to understand the conventions or the agreements with unions about when you do a plan, if there is by default no departure. Because we hear some other banks are trying to break that kind of agreement in the banking sector, is that something implicit or is it signed agreements in the industry? I would be curious to understand how that works. The other question is on the long road. I mean, again, if you compare to other players in France, there is new production pickup in mortgages and also in other parts of the commercial banking.
I mean, you don't see actually profitable growth, hence your cautious guidance, or is it a more deeper strategy to focus on EPS, CIB, and maybe other parts of CPB? Thank you.
Thank you very much. Maybe I'll just come back on the loan growth, and then I will hand over to Maryline on NII, and then I take back again on the FTE trajectory. On loan growth, we are a commercial activity. Of course, we want to support our clients. If we say that we want to grow our businesses, we need to have some growth in our loans, right? What we're trying to say is that we have a disciplined approach to loan growth and that we do not have a specific target in terms of market share. What we do is we provide the right service and product to our clients when they need. That is how we do it. We will have some reallocation, as I mentioned before, in terms of resources. We will, in priority, allocate capital to profitable activities.
Again, we mentioned Private Banking, Corporate Banking. Within Corporate Banking, Lars has talked about BNP Paribas Dévelopement. It's a private equity-like unit, and the revenue is much above 20%. That's an example of how we execute a disciplined approach on resources. For NII and Livret A, I hand over to Maryline.
Yes. Thank you, Isabelle. For headwinds and Livret A, indeed, the evolution of NII in the past has been affected by headwinds, which had impact on the past years. As you probably remember, we have disclosed two headwinds, inflation hedges and mandatory reserve for CPBF. Regarding inflation hedges, inflation hedges were booked in 2022 when inflation rose sharply. In order to hedge the additional cost of the regulated savings accounts, so Livret A. In 2023, the French government chose to deviate from the formula, usually indexed on inflation. While inflation was still above six percent, the French government kept the remuneration of Livret A at three percent. Consequently, during the last three years, there was first an impact on P&L due to inflation hedges. Now it is no longer the case as inflation has decreased and is now stable.
The formula was applied in last February without any deviation and should be applied as well in August.
Thank you, Maryline. In terms of costs, again, I reiterate, these are net figures for FTE trajectory. It is not only moving around people. We do not see those things in that way in any case. These are net trajectory. All in all, it generates a strong jaws effect of three to four points over the duration of the plan. This is quite a significant improvement, I would say. In terms of proportion of internal mobility, we are not going to disclose that, but again, to give you some elements. Private Banking is growing. Corporate Banking is growing. We said that we want to accelerate on SMEs growth. For SMEs to cover them, you need proximity. That will be in the regions, in the corporate banking centers. These are elements of growth.
In individual and entrepreneur banking, we also said that we wanted to have higher level of dedicated and highly trained advisors. These are the regions where we want to invest. Of course, to have a net decrease, that means also that some departures will not be replaced. We will also have efficiency gains, and that is what Maryline and Pierre also described to you earlier. All in all, this cost trajectory leads to these three to four percentage points jaw effect over the duration of the plan. In terms of social pacts, we have presented our plan to our social representatives in March. We are now rolling out and discussing the implementation in all the different regions. That is where we are. We are again discussing how we are going to support our people in this plan that is a development plan.
The next question is from Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have three, please. The first one on business mix. You have actually quite a large share of revenue from large corporates, about 25%-30% according to your pie chart. Could you maybe describe a little bit how the cutoff works? When does a client still in your business, and when does it get promoted to Global Banking? Is that a very fluent relationship, or is it very cooperative? I would be curious to get a bit more color on how that works. The second question on insurance, you show that about eight percent of your fee income is from non-life and protection. One of your competitors discloses about 40% of its fees from all insurance business. I was wondering if there is other insurance-related revenue also in your business mix beyond the eight percent.
If not, are you happy with the current equipment rates and insurance, or is there scope to do more on the insurance side? The final question on Private Banking/Wealth Management, could you maybe describe a little bit how the cooperation works between your business and the Wealth Management division? Is the private banking business essentially a very local business driven by what you want, or is it more a centrally managed business out of the Wealth Management division? Do you think this will change as a result of the acquisition of HSBC's business in Germany? Thank you very much.
Thanks a lot for your question. It indeed gives me an opportunity to give you more details on Corporate Banking. We cover the full spectrum of corporates within Corporate Banking, and we operate in a very high level of cooperation with CIB. We represent only 13% of revenues of the group, but we represent a quarter of group cross-sell. We have this view that we need to maximize the input of our colleagues in other CIB or IPS departments. To be very precise, I will give you a few examples. Whenever we have, let's say, a mid-cap that we accompany in a region, if there is an IPO, because for example, last year, we reopened the IPO market in France.
There is the coverage that is being done by CPBF, and we do, I would say, most of the relationship within CPBF. For an IPO event, of course, we have the ECM teams who are there and who accompany the client in the ski moment. Again, we want to maximize synergies. Also, we have this strong objective of having three to four percentage points of jaws effect. We are not going to duplicate any type of expertise across the group. We want to be very efficient, and we are very conscious of where we can add value and how the combination is great for our clients. This is true on mid-caps, but it is the same thing on large-cap. To give you also an idea on large-cap, we have regional dealing rooms. Some of large-cap companies' headquarters are not based in Paris.
Regionally, they are covered by a dealing room that is regional. They are able to see their clients quite regularly and be very proactive for all their needs in terms of hedging, FX flow, etc. In terms of deals execution and post-trade, that is being done in global markets platform. Again, very efficient. We maximize not only cross-sell, but also these types of synergies and costs across the group. That is to give you an idea of Corporate Banking. On insurance, we have ambitions to grow our part on insurance. We had, especially in individual and entrepreneur banking, launched a prevoyance campaign that is very successful. We do think that we can do even more, of course. In corporate, you can also see that in our ambitions, we mentioned specifically insurance because, again, we do think that it is a lever of growth for us.
That will even grow further with AXA IM and the offer on long-term savings. I think the potential on insurance indeed will grow. For Private Bank and Wealth Management, it's a bit the same thing as in CIB, actually. If you look at Private Banking, we cover the full spectrum of clients. That's very classic, but we have different segments from regional banking centers, but also Wealth Management and upper ultra-high net worth individuals. Sorry. There, how does it work? I think this is something that's a key differentiator in the French market. We have regional private banking centers offering Wealth Management expertise. That means that if you are in a region, if you want to have access to a leader in Wealth Management, you don't need to go to Paris to have the offer.
Again, we're able to deliver the full spectrum of Wealth Management Private Banking to our clients in CPBF. Of course, we will rely on mutualized experts, for example, that are in Wealth Management in terms of investment capabilities, expertise. We will mutualize when this is efficient. You mentioned rightfully the HSBC acquisition, and that's why also we mentioned in our Private Banking part that we wanted to benefit from the Wealth Management platform for ultra-high net worth individuals. That's quite sophisticated, and that's directly related to this Wealth Management pan-European platform on which we expect to also have benefits.
Great. Thank you very much. Very helpful.
The next question is from Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions and this very useful presentation. I have two questions on the business, and then I follow up. You mentioned a couple of times BNP Paribas Dévelopment. What is that exactly, and why does a private equity business sit in retail? Maybe I'm not understanding what it is. Secondly, separately, the cost-income ratio that you are trending towards, the 60%, I know it's a big improvement, but it's still fairly below best-in-class retail businesses. I'm wondering, could there be a further improvement if something changed in your tech infrastructure? What I'm trying to get to is how is your core banking system looking? Is there any plan anytime soon to change core banking systems? My last question, and I'm sorry to go back to NII, but that is slide 10.
Thank you for all the details you have provided so far. I just wanted a clarification on your hedging process. In my understanding, the site deposits are replicated with an average maturity of seven years between five and 10. Is that quite prescriptive, or do you have a model replicating the behavioral duration of your customers? We have seen quite a fast rotation out of site into term, which I guess could reverse. I guess you have models on that, and that impacts the duration of those hedges. I am wondering, do you also have a tail of shorter-term hedges to cover the site deposits? Thanks.
Thank you. I'll start with BNP Paribas Dévelopment, and then I'll hand over to Pierre to give you some elements on IT systems and how it contributes to our cost-income improvements, and Maryline for the hedging process. BNP Paribas Dévelopment, first, it's a small contributor to the overall revenues, right? It's just only a few percent of the revenues of CPBF in total. The reason why we are highlighting it is, first, as I mentioned, the level of profitability is way above 20%, RONE. This is an activity that we want to develop on the planned duration. What is it about? It's a private equity type of investment, but only in minority investment. We like that approach because we do think that it enhances the intimacy with our clients.
Plus, it is a very strong contributor in fees generation, in event-driven generation, whether it is M&A, ECM, I mentioned IPOs or DCM, and we are a leader in France. We have strong development ambition. Another instance where BNP Paribas Dévelopment was mentioned was you probably saw a press release from the BNP Paribas Group on defense. There, BNP Paribas Dévelopment has supported French defense players for EUR 200 million of private equity investment for, I think it was 40 SMEs in the defense sector. Again, in terms of accelerating our growth in SMEs, BNP Paribas Dévelopment is a strong contributor. I know.
Can I just check? So my understanding is that you have basically equity stakes in non-financial companies to support their development.
Yes. Exactly.
Okay. Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. Pierre, you want to answer on the IT part?
Yes. Thank you for the opportunity. The strategy for IT, it's clearly to start to provide the right product to the right client and the right price. We have no plan to change the core banking, and the way is to continue to get some mutualization within the group. Isabelle talked just before about kind of mutualization with the wealth program . Clearly, we are going to be in this momentum in the next two years, providing to the ultra-high net worth customers a new platform with new services and bespoke products. The second thing I could say in terms of mutualization, we continue to mutualize internally within CPBF. To illustrate this, more than 80% of our IT applications are mutualized within CPBF business line. Maybe the last thing, it's clearly a key point for us.
We continue to be very focused on resilience and modernization also with the IT group. I talked about before during the presentation about the strategy around our application to be hosted in dedicated clouds, or the second part is clearly to be more open to external services with the API strategy. The question is clearly more about that, finding a new core banking system.
For the last point, Maryline speaking, for the hedging strategy, I can give you some points to better understand. You have to keep in mind that the hedging strategy at CPBF level is performance-based on the average duration of our assets. Our credits are well balanced between five and 10 years. We have long-term mortgage, we have medium-term investment loans and other loans. The NII dynamic is mainly driven by deposit mix, so non-remunerated current accounts and saving accounts, and the applicable investment profile per deposit category. In the specific case of current accounts, the investment profile is defined on a medium-long-term basis to limit NII volatility. Contrary to other banks which benefit from higher rates since 2022, the negative mix and price signal at CPBF more than offsets the positive impact.
Thanks.
The next question is from Joseph Dickerson, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Sorry to belabor the NII point. Just in layman's terms or simple terms, because you do show quite a bit of growth, notably in 2026 in NII where it makes a step change. Effectively, in layman's terms, what's happening here is that the lowest yielding elements of the replicating portfolio are falling out. So the 2020, 2021 type of maturities, which could have even been in some points negative, is that effectively what's driving that? Is those deposits roll combined with the absence of a makeshift headwind? Thanks.
In synthesis, yes.
One-word answers are perfectly fine with me. Thanks.
Are there any remaining questions, operator?
The next question is from Sharath Kumar, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions and for the very useful presentation. I have three questions, including a few follow-ups. Sorry to come back on the deposit mix clarification. When you say stable deposit mix assumed in the NII trajectory, do you mean it will be stable at the current level of 51%, or is there a different number that has been assumed? That is the first one. A second is on the follow-up, again, on the previous question on private equity. In terms of the size of investments, are we talking about venture type or more mid-market companies which are fairly mature? Would it be possible to get the total size of the investment portfolio? Lastly, a question on slide six on cross-sale. I noticed that the cross-sale percentage has been more stable.
Of course, it's just two years, but do you think there is more scope to optimize, or is it already at a good level that you're satisfied? Thank you.
Thank you. Maybe I let Lars answer the last question, and then in reverse order, I take the BNP Paribas Dévelopment one, and I let Maryline conclude on the deposit mix.
Just to be sure, can you rephrase your cross-sale question that I give the right answer?
What I was trying to arrive at is if I see the cross-sale within the various segments, it is pretty stable. Of course, we are just talking about two years. Do you think this is already at an optimum level, or there is more scope to optimize?
No, there is more scope in the sense that one of the things is that we will be stepping up the products that we can cross-sell. Take the example, if you look, a big chunk of the cross-selling is originating in the department IPS. Now with the bolting on that will happen next week of AXA IM, we will step up the kind of products. We are basically having a heritage of bank insurance kind of products. We will now have also the more typical plain insurance products that go with it. The cross-sell that is originating from this business is really high. If you look at it, it represents basically insurance represents 10% of the pretax income, but it is basically a third of the cross-sell. That is one of the drivers how we will further step up the cross-sell.
Sorry, on BNP Paribas Dévelopment, we are a leader in France, and over time, we've invested around EUR 2 billion in terms of amounts invested, and it's quite diversified among large cap and mid caps, I would say, so different states of maturity. Again, BNP Paribas Dévelopment, it's a good example of how we want to support our clients during their journey. We are able to accompany them when they're small businesses. They grow into mid caps, large caps, and then large international clients. Again, this is just an illustration of how we can follow our clients over time. Still, it's just a small fraction of the revenues that you have on slide six. Maybe Maryline on the deposit mix.
Yes. For the deposit mix, we can go on slide ten. You can see on the graph the evolution of the deposit mix. Now it is stabilizing. The deposit growth will be around one percent is the assumption we have in our plan. The evolution that you can see for 2025, we will keep the same deposit mix over the period of the plan. It is the main assumption we have. We will benefit from the reinvestment we will have regarding these sight deposits.
Understood. Thank you.
The next question is from Andrew Coombs, Citi. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. One follow-up on the replication portfolio and then a broader question on NII, please. On the replication portfolio, you talked about EUR 120 billion of non-remunerated deposits that's largely reinvested at five to 10 years. Very simply, if you take that as the average maturity profile of seven years, then you're talking about EUR 17 billion rolling each year. I think then later in the call, a EUR 10 billion number was referenced. Should we be thinking about EUR 10 billion-EUR 17 billion per year being rolling and then being reinvested at that 100 basis point spread that you mentioned? Any clarity you can give there would be useful on exactly how much you expect to mature each year. More broadly on NII, the second question, I think in essence what you have here is a margin over volume strategy.
You've talked about one percent loan and deposit growth, but obviously over the last three to four quarters, your volumes have actually been pretty stable, even slightly down. I guess the question is, what's the trade-off? Would you be happy for your balances to actually slightly drop below that one percent aim if it meant the margins were higher, or are you very clear that you want volume growth here? Thank you.
Maybe I'll hand over to Lars on the portfolio replication.
Yeah. If I am concise again, intrinsically, that is what it is. Yeah. You have seen it. It is roughly of the amount that you get. It is like around EUR 120 billion side deposits. That is a bit how we redeploy it over that period. Of course, it is a bit phased given some of the optimization and the alignment with the assets. Intrinsically, that is indeed the rationale to apply.
Maybe just a quick comment, you talked about trade-offs. You perfectly understood us in terms of, we are value-driven and not volume-driven. However, we want to continue to support our clients during their projects, and we will remain competitive, right? We will do what is necessary to defend our franchise because we are, again, on high-value segments. We need also to remain competitive. In terms of trade-off, we are more in a value-add than on volume. Maybe to conclude, I think this is a highly stimulating environment and, again, very good timing to launch this strategic plan. I do think that we have significant advantages over our competitors: a very strong client franchise, which cannot be built overnight, a robust product factory and cross-selling capabilities, and a proven track record and ability to execute on our strategic plans.
I would like to thank you very much for having attended this presentation on BNP Paribas Commercial and Personal Banking in France and for your questions. As you have heard, we have an ambitious strategic plan to sustain the development of our leading franchises, Corporate Banking, Private Banking, as well as growth prospects for our Individual and Entrepreneur Banking. This will allow us to reach a target RONE above 17% by 2028, powered by investments in tech, AI, and in our people. You will see quarter after quarter in the coming years the results and improvements. Thank you for your attention.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Deep Dive call dedicated to Commercial and Personal Banking in France. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.