Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the VINCI Q1 Revenue 2025 Conference Call. I now hand over to Grégoire Thibault, Head of Investor Relations for VINCI. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you, Heidi. Hello, and thanks for attending this conference call. I'm today with the Investor Relations team and Marie-Amélia Folch , the Group Controller. As usual, I will be brief to have more time for the Q&A and because I know there are other publications and conference calls for you this evening. What are the key takeaways of this Q1 publication? First, a solid performance overall to start the year, with total revenue up 4% to EUR 16.3 billion, mainly driven by international, which is up 6%. International represents more than 56% of our total revenue. Point number two for Q1, please keep in mind that for concession, traffic is up year- on- year on motorways and on airports. For the energy solutions business, made up of VINCI Energies and Cobra IS, a dynamic international momentum and a good order intake in flow business.
For construction, stabilization of revenue, as expected, at a high level, while order intake of VINCI Construction is up. I will give you more granularity later. Point number three, the group's order intake is down EUR 2 billion versus Q1 2024, but no worries, that's due to high comps at Cobra IS. Indeed, recall that the order intake in Q1 2024 included two offshore wind farm energy converter platforms worth EUR 2.5 billion. Adjusted for those orders, order intake is up by almost 4% this quarter, with a buoyant flow business level. As a result, the order book of VINCI reached a new all-time high of EUR 72 billion at the end of March, up 8% year- on- year and up 4% versus December 2024.
It represents more than 14 months of average activity, 14.5 months to be exact and to be fair, and that's a record visibility, giving the group serenity and enabling it to remain selective. Point number four, regarding the financial position, we are serene as well. The net financial debt of Vinci at the end of March amounted to EUR 21.3 billion.
This is a quite limited increase of a bit more than EUR 800 million versus the end of December 2024, despite the traditional increase in working capital requirements at the beginning of the year, as you know, which is in line with the normal seasonality this year. Limited increase of the debt despite the M&A spending this quarter, in particular for FM Conway in the U.K., acquired by VINCI Construction late January 2025. VINCI's liquidity remains substantial, with a managed net cash of EUR 11.8 billion and EUR 6.5 billion of RCF.
As a result, with such a sound financial position, VINCI is well prepared to go through the current economic uncertainties in the world and ready to continue to deploy its capital allocation strategy with Pillar 1, investing on existing assets to extract more value, M&A and development, and those three capital disciplines. Of course, an appealing and a recurring cash return to shareholders through dividends and share buyback. Let's now have a closer look at the main businesses. For concession, revenue is up 8% to EUR 2.5 billion, of which VINCI Autoroutes EUR 1.4 billion, up 4%. Traffic in Q1 was up 2.1%, of which light vehicles plus 2.2% and trucks plus 1.6%. That growth reflects easy comps, traffic having been disrupted last year by the farmers' blockade, and on the other hand, negative calendar effect in Q1 2025.
For VINCI Airports, revenue slightly below EUR 1 billion, plus 12% and plus 9% like- for-like . You have already seen the traffic figures, which confirm the continuous rise in passengers' numbers in almost all of the network's 14 countries. Many airports, for example, those in Portugal, Mexico, Edinburgh, or Budapest, achieved record passengers' numbers. In Japan, passengers' numbers continued to recover above their pre-COVID levels due to accelerating growth in travel with China. Overall, VINCI Airports' PAX numbers were up 6% in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024. Energy solution, made up of VINCI Energies and Cobra IS, the revenue total EUR 6.6 billion, plus 6% on an actual basis and plus 3% like -for-like . That growth was driven by business outside France, which grew by 7.5% on an actual basis and by 4% like -for-like .
This start of the year confirms that companies of VINCI Energies and Cobra have strong positions in dynamic markets driven by the energy transition and digital transformation. On top of those beneficial trends, there is a positive effect of the recurring flow of acquisition made by VINCI Energies to strengthen its geographical coverage and bolster its expertise, and which can be seen as quasi-organic growth. VINCI Energies in a nutshell, Q1 revenue EUR 4.8 billion, plus 5% actual, plus 2% like-for-like .
All four business lines, that's infrastructure, industry, building solution, and ICT, contributed to this growth. Outside France, that's 57% of the total for VINCI Energies, revenue was up 7%. The trend was particularly positive in Germany, which is VINCI Energies' largest market aside from France, contributing revenue of more than EUR 3.4 billion in 2024 and EUR 0.8 billion in Q1 2025, that's 11% more than Q1 2024.
In France, revenue of VINCI Energies was up 2%. Order intake for VINCI Energies, consisting mainly of small and medium-sized contracts this quarter, order intake was up 2% in Q1 2025, with an impressive new record high of over EUR 22 billion on a rolling 12-month basis. Order book amounted to EUR 18 billion, plus 11% year- on- year, and representing more than 10 months of average business activity. Finally, please note that VINCI Energies, our acquisition and integration machine, remained active on the M&A front, having completed 11 acquisitions this quarter, representing total annual revenue of around EUR 80 million mainly outside France. For Cobra IS, strong revenue growth of 8.5% to EUR 1.7 billion on plan with our guidance. In flow business, that's 57% of the total, revenue rose by 4%, and it rose in Spain, in Latin America, and in the rest of the world.
In EPC projects, revenue increased by 15%, 1.5%. This trend is due in particular to the ramp-up in Germany of the HVDC converter platform project and the ramp-up of the construction of the first LNG terminal of Germany. Remember that these projects are absolutely strategic for Germany's energy independence and sovereignty. In addition to this positive trend of EPC, it should be noted as well the contribution of the project of high-voltage transmission lines in Brazil. Order intake for Cobra, as I already told you, they fell due to high comps. Meanwhile, it's worth mentioning that order intake on flow business kept on increasing. Those order books amounted to a very high level, above EUR 17 billion for Cobra IS, that's plus 2% year- on year. It's a very high level that represents more than two years of average activity.
Those of you with a good memory will notice that this order book is more than twice its level when we acquired Cobra IS three years ago. VINCI Construction, Q1 revenue EUR 7.1 billion, plus 1%. Outside France, that's 53% of the total, revenue rose 2%, thanks to recent acquisition in the U.K. and in North America. On a like-for-like basis, revenue contracted by 3%. In more detail, business levels rose in continental Europe, Africa, and Oceania, but fell in other regions. As already mentioned in our previous press releases, revenue from large projects fell slightly due to phasing issues, with some projects being completed while others were only in the startup phase. In France, activity was slightly down, minus 1% like-for-like .
In detail, we note the firm business levels in roadworks, hydraulic, and railworks, which partially offset lower levels in civil engineering, arising particularly from the phasing of works on Grand Paris Express and in the building sector. Order intake rose by 7% at VINCI Construction, increasing in specialty networks and major projects, as well as in Africa, and remaining this order intake at a high level in the Americas, Oceania, and in roadworks in France. VINCI Construction order book ended the quarter up 9% at almost EUR 37 billion, representing 14 months of average activity. VINCI Immobilier, you know that's a modest impact for VINCI Group, Q1 revenue of EUR 245 million, minus 5%. The value of reservation fell by 8%. That's partly due to some postponements of several bulk sales transactions to the Q2 2025.
In conclusion, in today's particularly troubled environment, VINCI's multilocal business model gives it agility, resilience, and the ability to adapt. On one hand, its activities are essentially based on local supply chains and workforce. On the other hand, its management model is based on a highly decentralized organization and a strong entrepreneurial culture. In a nutshell, VINCI seems to be a safe haven in today's paradigm, as some of you write. VINCI is therefore able to maintain the 2025 guidance presented last February. To wrap up, VINCI expects its total revenue and earnings to rise again in 2025 before factoring in the increase in corporate tax rates in France.
Last but not least, I see this opportunity to remind you that from the 1st of May 2025, Xavier Huillard will become Chairman of the Board of Directors, and Pierre Anjolras will become Chief Executive Officer of Vinci, following in the footsteps of its predecessors to keep on benefiting on the bright and long-lasting megatrends ahead. We would like to thank you for your attention, and we are now ready to take your questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will take our first question, and the question comes from the line of Elodie Rall. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color about the impact of negative calendar effect in Q1 on traffic in both toll roads and airports. Second, if you could give us a bit of traffic trends so far in April in toll roads and airports, but I suppose that's harder, so toll roads. Third, if you could help us understand if there's any impact from these tariff announcements on the diverse parts of Vinci's divisions. Thank you.
What was the last question? We missed it. The line was bad. Oh, sorry.
The Trump tariff announcements, what would be the direct or mostly indirect impact on the different divisions ? Thanks very much.
Yes, regarding the traffic, what we wrote is that the calendar effects were negative. First of all, 2024 was a leap year, so you have mechanically one day more, one day less than this year. Second point is Easter weekend. It started last year in 2024 in March, you remember. It started at the end of March and finished at the beginning of April, while this year the Easter weekend was fully in April. It means that particularly March, because of Easter, faced high comps. That is why in March, the traffic was down, in fact, 4%.
This trend, at least on the calendar effects point of view, should then reverse in April. That said, if your question is if we try to isolate the calendar effects and the farmer blockade impact last year, what would be, let's say, the traffic trend? We are not able to answer that. It would be slightly up. Traffic would be slightly up.
For airports, we communicate every month, so you can see what can be the impact. For airports, we still expect growth, even if the growth should normalize month after month. That is what we said in the guidance, by the way. We said that for the full year 2025, we expect total PAX to be up versus 2024, but growth to be less than in 2024. Growth in 2024 was +8.5%. We still expect growth in 2025, but more moderated than the 8.5%. For Trump, for the tariff impact, it is important to have in mind that we are a multilocal company. In the U.S., in particular, we are American. We have local suppliers. Our employees are American. We do not sell imported goods such as luxury, spirits, or cars. There is no direct impact on our business. The U.S. is quite small for VINCI.
In the U.S., we generated last year €3 billion, a bit more than €3 billion of revenue, compared to total revenue of €72 billion. Let's say the U.S. impact is quite limited. By the nature of our businesses and the nature of our organization, the direct impact should be limited. After, if the U.S. economy were to slow down and if the U.S. dollar were to fall, there could be, let's say, indirect impact for us. Short term, I would say no impact.
Thanks very much. Do you have an idea of traffic trends on toll roads in April?
No, you will see the 20th of May when we publish the April figures.
All right. Thank you.
No problem.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Luis Prieto. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks, Greg, and the rest of the team for taking the time. I just had one question, and apologies because it's a bit unrelated to the actual numbers. You presented a request for qualification for the I-285E, but I understand that you have refrained from doing so for the I-24 managed lane in Tennessee. Could you provide us some light on why one project and not the other, as well as what to expect from VINCI in the remaining US managed lanes project pipeline that we see in front of us? Thank you.
First, we have a look, that's true for the managed lane you mentioned, which was not the case for Georgia. We remain very cautious. Our approach, we consider that the biggest risk for managed lane is on construction, is for the contractor. We didn't change on this front.
That said, and probably that's why you can see there are more competitors recently in the upcoming opportunities of managed lanes in the U.S. Instead of having the two or three jurisdictions, you have maybe four or five, according to what I see in the press. It's maybe due to the fact that the risk matrix is rebalanced a bit in favor of the private sector. That said, I don't want to comment more than that, but it's true that we have a close look on this next opportunity while remaining very cautious and selective, you know it. We'll see.
Excellent. That helps. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Ruairi Cullina ne. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Oh, hi there, Ruairi Cullin ane, RBC. Firstly, why do you think heavy goods vehicle traffic declined in Autoroutes in March? Just comparing the February release with the Q1 figures, I just thought lease time would be favorable there. Secondly, quite an open-ended question. How will increased investment in Germany impact your contracting business? What's your exposure there? Thank you.
I will first answer on Germany. It was your question, Ruari, on Germany?
Yes. That was the question. Yeah. Thank you.
Yeah. In Germany, that's a big market for VINCI. We are very exposed to Germany. By the way, this country is our second largest international market after the U.K. VINCI generated in Germany in 2024 revenue of around EUR 5.6 billion. That's 8% of our total revenue. What's the split between this revenue? VINCI Construction is EUR 1.4 billion. That's mainly some road construction.
You know that road is one of the components of the stimulus plan announced by the future Chancellor, Mr. Merz. VINCI Construction, EUR 1.4 billion. VINCI Energies is extremely big in Germany. What I said, it is more than EUR 3.4 billion last year. That is the main international market of VINCI Energies. It represents almost 20% of the total revenue of VINCI Energies. VINCI Energies in Germany is very exposed to infrastructure. When we say infrastructure, it is energy infrastructure, so to the country's transmission and distribution lines network, which should be as well a very important part of the stimulus plan. VINCI Energies is quite big as well in industry for industrial clients. That said, I told you that the revenue of VINCI Energies increased quite strongly last year, year- on- year, and increased again in Q1 2025 by 11% versus Q1 2024.
Cobra IS is very active in Germany, notably through Dragados Offshore, to build and install the HVDC platform and active as well on the LNG terminal that I mentioned in introduction. This is the first LNG regasification plant of the country. It is a very strategic and important project. If your question is, should we benefit from the stimulus plan in Germany, both for infrastructure and for defense, the answer is yeah.
Great. Thank yo u. How about,
Yeah. Just, yeah, there was a traffic on EV trucks in March. You say decrease? No, it is flat. It is slightly, very slightly up. The trucks in March 2025 versus March 2024, slightly up. Year to date, trucks are up almost 2%. I told you to try to analyze month after month, you can have so many effects impacting the trend. It is not always very easy for us to explain, and it is not always, in other words, do not try to extrapolate too much these kind of monthly trends.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Eric Lemarié. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I got three. If I miss the first one, could you maybe confirm that you lost the Nairobi-Nakuru PPP in Kenya? I think you won this PPP with Meridiam some years ago. I got a second question on the French property management, property development sectors. Do you think we are close to the trough of the cycle today in the new residential market in France?
Last question on toll roads in France, could you maybe tell us whether you have started to request the help of the administrative court in France to try to compensate this new infrastructure tax you started to pay last year? Thank you.
Yes. First question, Kenya, yes, that's the end for this project. We confirm. Second point, immobilier, the trough, it's difficult to say. There are some in the current environment, you have some plus and some minus, positives and negatives, but all in probably regarding the order intake, regarding the reservation of housing units, I wouldn't say the trough has been reached. In Q1, these housing units reservations were still down because, what I said, some bulk sales have been postponed to Q2, but all in, let's remain a bit cautious.
In terms of revenue for Immobilier, I'm not sure neither the trough has been reached last year. Maybe this year, revenue will post, let's say, a flattish or slightly negative trend. First, r egarding the operating earnings, probably yes, the earnings hopefully have been the trough has been reached. Remember, in 2024, the EBIT of VINCI Immobilier was negative, and it was due to some write-offs and due to some restructuring charges, which are now behind us. We should not have again this impact. We could be back in the positive territory regarding operating earnings. Maybe lower revenue, but a bit better on the results front. Second question, no, third question, sorry, regarding the toll roads. First, regarding, let's say, our claim against this new tax on French motorways, which is in place since April 2024.
Currently, the case is at the level of the Council of State. There are still a few technicalities to check. We should have an answer of Conseil d'État , Council of State, in the coming, I don't know, maybe in the coming weeks. Very probably, the litigation will continue through the administrative route, and we'll make a contractual appeal before the administrative court of Paris and before the European Court, the European Court of Human Rights. They will have to rule on the grounds raised against this tax. We will continue to challenge it. Be sure of that. The administrative route should start soon. Just be sure that VINCI's Auto routes remains committed to making sure that the state respects its contractual commitment. The procedure could last several years anyway.
However, we are determined to see this dispute through to the end and to win in order to preserve our rights and not to set a precedent for the contractual solidity of VINCI's Autoroutes concession contract. It is a matter of criticality of the state's compliance with its commitment. Without confidence in the state's compliance with the contractual framework, it is not ideal when we think about all the amounts of private money which will be needed in the coming years and decades, notably to decarbonize the transport and to decarbonize the French economy. That is a very important challenge, I would say. It is not only for motorways. It is more than that.
Thank you, Grégoire. Just on this PPP in Kenya, do we know why it has been canceled? Is there an official reason?
It is partly due to some—it is not so easy to finance such a project.
Okay. Okay. That will do. Thank you. Thank you, Greg.
T hank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Dario Maglione. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Two quick ones. On construction, can you tell us a bit about the trends I'm just seeing in France as well as outside France? I see the like-for-like route is negative, but not negative in France. Yes, if you can comment a bit more. Also on energies, the like-for-like route in Q1 was 1.6%, whereas for 2024, in most quarters, was around almost more than 3%. Why do you think the growth is slowing down, and is this the new normal? Thanks.
Yeah. This trend of like-for-like in Q1 for VINCI Energies, it's probably a bit early to draw a conclusion. It's true it was plus 1.5% like-for-like outside France. Outside France, please keep in mind that this trend follows a very high fourth quarter, where the revenue, international revenue, was up 8%. Q1 is less good than Q4 2024. That's true. It's a bit too early to try to extrapolate. Let's see in the coming months the situation. For France, it's quite, I would say, resilient, predictable. It's a like-for-like growth of 1.7%. All in, the total growth of VINCI Energies is in line with what we announced during the CMD last November, which is that by 2030, the revenue should increase high to mid-single digits, like-for-like and M&A, because keep in mind, Dario, that we consider that M&A, the ball turn, is quasi-organic growth. That's bang in line with what we said during the CMD.
That's bang in line as well with our full year 2025 guidance, where we said that in 2025, we expect the revenue of VINCI Energies to increase at the same pace, more or less, than in 2024. It means an increase of +5% over the full year. Number two, for the construction, the line was very bad. Dario, I'm sorry. What was the question on construction exactly? Sure.
Yes. On the revenue side, construction was a bit better than expected. On the like-for-like, I see a slowdown. Maybe can you comment on this slowdown, like-for-like, both in France as well as international? What to expect for the rest of the year? Thanks.
In fact, for VINCI Construction, the revenue we printed in Q1 is exactly in line as well with our full year 2025 guidance. For full year 2025, we said that we expect revenue of VINCI Construction flat, including the impact of the acquisition of FM Conway in the U.K. It means excluding this impact, we expected a like-for-like slightly negative trend. For France, in Q1, like-for-like was -1%. It is mainly due to some phasing effects on large projects in Grand Paris. Some large projects in Grand Paris finished or were ramping down, notably the Line 14, the Line 15 in the south of Paris, while other projects, large projects related to Grand Paris, will ramp up, notably the line 15 west. That is why we see a slight decrease in revenue. Honestly, it was expected and nothing to worry about. The order book remained very solid, especially for construction. That is true in large projects. That is true in flow business. Flow business is very important for us.
It's, let's say, our bread-and-butter contracts. No, let's say, no drama signal. For international, a bit the same effect. A part of the decreased light-for-light was due to some phasing effects, with some large projects being at the end, some projects in Australia, for example, some projects in North America, while other large projects are about to start and are about to produce a lot. These future large projects are, for example, the Red Line Extension in Chicago, the Ontario Line subway in Toronto. That's normal. In EPC, in large projects, you can have a bit of volatility, but it's on plan, I would say.
Okay. Thanks, Greg.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Graham Hunt. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yeah. Thanks very much. I've just got three quick questions, I think. Firstly, just on the Cobra order intake, are we seeing in any sense a reflection of capacity constraints there that will keep order intake at this kind of lower level going forward in the near term because you just do not have the capacity to do more work there? Second question on the airports. I wondered if you had carved out, I know you mentioned in your airport release some weakness in the U.S. and Dominican Republic because of the slowdown to the U.S. market. I just wondered if you had carved out travel to the U.S. for the whole portfolio and whether you had seen or what the trends were for the broader portfolio and if you have seen any change through April.
Third question, just going back to the I-2 85 East, was there any reason or what is the thinking behind going alone there as the equity partner? Would you consider bringing in a partner on the equity side for other projects? Thanks.
From the managed lane, I'm sorry, Graham, we will not comment more than that. It is not our tradition to comment on the ongoing opportunities. It is still a bit early. It is still a long-term process. It is only a pre-qualification stage, so a lot of things can happen. We have a way to monitor cautiously a specific opportunity and the macroeconomic environment around such an opportunity. It is a good segue to the U.S. Specifically, have we seen an impact of the U.S. situation in our traffic? No. Even if the current geopolitical uncertainty calls for caution. At this stage, we have not yet observed a significant slowdown in U.S. airline at our airports since the beginning of the year.
Something important in mind is that the proportion of U.S. passengers in our total traffic was around 5% in 2024. Let's say it's quite limited. You remember that our portfolio is mostly a portfolio, even if it's very diversified worldwide, but the biggest proportion comes from the European airports. European airports or European airports represent more than 70% of the total of VINCI Airports. The traffic within European airports is mostly domestic or European or short-haul traffic. That's true for Gatwick. That's true for ANA. We are not very exposed to long-haul, and we are not very exposed to the U.S. passenger. Dominican Republic, because you mentioned Aerodom, we have to be careful because it's true that it's an airport which is quite exposed to the U.S. passengers. We have to be cautious. At this stage, we don't see an impact.
You saw a decrease of traffic yester day on the Dominican airport, but it's due to the reduction in the number of aircraft by Arajet. Arajet is one of the airlines operating in Aerodom. They decided to reduce their offer last May 2024. In fact, since one year, we face high comps, I would say. That's not linked to the current U.S., I would say, uncertainty and fog. That's due to the fact that we have an airline running at lower capacity.
Just on— Sorry.
For Cobra? No, for Cobra, it's true that for Cobra IS, for VINCI Construction, for VINCI Energies, the key is the human resources, is the availability of manpower. No, for Cobra IS, don't say, "Okay, there was a slowdown because of this theme." No, no, it's not that. Cobra IS, the decrease was only due to this exceptional order intake we booked in Q1 2024 for these two HVDC in the North Sea in Germany for TenneT. Adjusted from that, the order intake of Cobra IS are up. In particular, the flow business order intake for Cobra IS are up.
Thanks very much.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of José Manuel Arroyas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hello, Gregoire. Thank you for the time. Just one question. I wanted to ask you on the power transmission line contract in Australia that Cobra won together with Acciona. I understand this is an availability concession running for many, many years. Could you tell us how much CapEx is involved in this project for VINCI and for how many years will this CapEx need to be deployed? Thank you.
Hello, José. No, in fact, we do not communicate a lot on this detail. That is quite a lot of CapEx. What has been officially communicated so far is the total CapEx for this renewable energy zone. We did not, I think we have some confidentiality agreements with the clients not to communicate exactly on the amount of CapEx. It is quite a lot, and we will do the CapEx, Cobra IS with Acciona.
We cannot say more than that. What is good is that—I am sorry, it is only a qualitative answer. You will be frustrated. It is good because it is a very positive signal for the development of this kind of mega deal, jumbo deal linked to T&D transmission lines through PPP. What we think is that it is only the beginning. Brazil used this kind of scheme since 20 years. They do their transport of electricity with the private sector.
Cobra IS has been very, very active since 20 years in Brazil. Now there is this new market, Australia. Probably the need to deploy thousands of kilometers of T&D lines will be huge in Australia. There will be many opportunities for the private sector. One day, it will not be only Australia, but we think there will be this kind of opportunities, even in France, for example. The message is that it is a very promising market. Thanks to Cobra IS, we have an expertise, and we are a first mover in a market with a bright outlook. More figures, sorry, I cannot give you.
Thank you very much.
No problem.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Ami Galla. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you.
Just two questions for me. The first one was on the M&A pipeline. Given the sort of global market uncertainty that we sit with, has there been any shift in sentiment of the sellers in the market? Do you see any change in how they think about the potential value for their businesses? The second one was on the order book levels that you sit with. If we still sit with a wider economic uncertainty over the next year, are there any risks or delays to the order book that we've already taken in terms of the execution profile?
If I understood correctly, your second question is that is there a risk of cancellation of contracts in the order book?
Yes. Cancellation or delays potentially?
Yes. Cancellation or delays, yes, you can always have this risk. We went through many crises like that. It's not the first one. Even, for example, during the COVID in 2020, there were very, very limited amounts of cancellation in the order book. It's non-significant. Today, we are not stressed. First, we are not stressed, generally speaking. Secondly, we are not stressed by cancellation or delays of contracts. Keep something very important in mind. A lot of this order book has been fitted by VINCI Energies, Cobra IS, and VINCI Construction as well by the mega trends of energy transition, of digital transformation, of defense and sovereignty challenges. These kinds of trends, in our view, will not be put into question.
Second thing is that in our order book, the projects are, when it's contractually the case, already a part is already prepaid. The client has a financing letter. Let's say it's not easy to cancel a project. Again, fundamentally, we think this project, there is no reason, let's say, to cancel or postpone this project.
Thank you.
On top of that, we have what we call a pre-backlog. We do not communicate on the pre-order book, but it is not zero. We are cautious people. We have other projects, other contracts which have not been yet included in the order book for different reasons, but we have a pre-backlog. Do not worry about that. For the M&A pipeline, consistently, we analyze some opportunities. Like Luis and Graham ask about this opportunity of managed lanes in the US. We have other opportunities in airports, in highways, outside France. Energy is daily, many, many opportunities, etc. We do not change, and the sellers do not change their mind. It is sometimes quite a long-term process.
When there is an opportunity up for sale, the seller is not going to withdraw suddenly because there are some uncertainties coming from the U.S. Of course, that's something which has to be taken into account. Let's say we have to remain, sometimes we have to keep calm and carry on. Let's see the things. We are long-term people. It does not change dramatically the M&A markets.
There are opportunities, but for opportunities, of course, we will analyze even more carefully regarding the evolution of this tariff situation and of this trade war, which changes every day. You know better than us. Every day, there is an erratic decision, I would say, a different news. We are not going, a seller is not going to say, "Okay, no, I don't sell." The day after, "Okay, now finally, I'm ready again to sell," etc. That's why we have to keep calm and to stick to our long-term-minded philosophy.
Thank you. That's awesome.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Harishankar R amamoo rthy. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, everyone. It's Hari from Deutsche Bank. Thanks for taking my question, Greg. Just one from me. On the energy distribution order intake, you've been maintaining that this growth in this segment should not be coupled to GDP growth and should benefit from structural tailwinds. Now, I do get that you could see fluctuations in execution or in revenues. Are you concerned about the slowdown in the rate of growth in order intake? Maybe put differently, would you expect inflows to come through much stronger for the rest of the year? Thanks.
It's slowed down. Yep. Yesterday, it slowed down. Yes, if you want, its order intake are up 2% at Vinci Energy. Let's say, in addition to this order intake, we will do some bolt-on acquisition. All in, we are confident to print a high-to-mid single-digit growth on average per year by 2030. We said during the CMD that the top of the range, the upper range, will not be probably for 2024 and 2025. I circle back with the full-year guidance 2025, which is VINCI Energies to be up more or less like in 2024. It means around plus 5%.
Sure. Again,
To give you an example, Harry. In Germany, since two years, Germany is, let's say, in recession. Vinci Energy in Germany posted a double-digit growth year-on-year in 2024. In Q1 2025, still a double-digit growth despite the country is in recession.
In fact, quarter after quarter, or even year after year, you can try to, let's say, fine-tune to see if there are positive inflation, negative inflation. Okay, that's fair. Fundamentally speaking, we think VINCI Energies is not cyclical, is not volatile, and VINCI Energies is a unique company in the world. The geographical diversification is unique. Diversification of expertise is unique. Of course, you have some markets which will decrease, which will be under pressure, but it will be compensated by other markets. I would say that VINCI Energies, if we are right in the guidance, if revenue is up 5% in 2025, in a situation where Europe, European economy will be up maybe plus 1% or plus 1.5%, U.S. economy maybe in 2025 will be up plus 2%, etc., but will do better than that.
Understood, Greg. Thanks for this.
Thank you. We will take our next question.
Just a follow-up for Hari. Last year, we won in Q1 2024 several large projects. Okay? Large projects for VINCI Energies, it is a project above EUR 5 million. Still, they won several large projects, and notably in substations in the U.K., in the Netherlands, and other projects like that. In Q1 2024, you had, let's say, a big impact, a big boost for order intake of VINCI Energies of large projects, which is not the case in Q1 2025. That is why we wrote in the press release that in Q1 2025, the order intake is only made up of small and medium-sized contracts. If we adjust from this large project impact for VINCI Energies, order intake is up by more than these 2%.
Got it. Got it. Hopefully, we should see better growth rates for the rest of the year. Thanks for this, Greg.
Hopefully, stay with us and you will see.
Absolutely.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Marcin Wojtal. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I have got two. Firstly, on airports, could you remind us what is the level of tariff increases that you are implementing for 2025 for London Gatwick and also for your airports in Portugal? And my second question, just coming back to the German infrastructure stimulus, which appears to be quite substantial, but how much visibility have you got on the timing? And do you expect any incremental benefit to the business, perhaps towards the end of this year or in 2026? Thank you.
Marcin, that's a good question. For Germany, you understood we are a winner thanks to our exposure to this country with such announcements and such massive investments in roads, bridges, and rail, and electrical works, etc. That said, at this stage, I don't have a concrete vision of how this plan will be implemented. The ramp-up of this plan could take a bit of time. Even if the money is here, there is a bit of organization in Germany to put in place between the various levels of clients, of public clients, which client will launch which project, etc. That's why I lack a bit of visibility today to answer you exactly, okay, will we see a big impact in 2026 or 2027? Probably not.
Again, we are long-term people on these announcements of Germany for infrastructure, for defense, are very positive for the European economy and for, let's say, European domestic stocks like VINCI. Probably these kinds of projects of jumbo stimulus plans are probably not the last one in Europe. In particular, in defense, some other countries could decide to open a bit the wallet. We will benefit from that. To give you an exact timing with when will there be an impact in our figures, unfortunately, I can't. It will not be in the short or very mid-term. For airports, the aeronautical fees for now, the aeronautical fees were put in place since March 2025. In general, it's at the beginning of the year, but this year, there were a bit of complex technicalities. The application of aeronautical fees took place in March 2025.
For Lisbon, the passenger charge for the Lisbon group, so Lisbon and Madeira, Azores, etc., will increase by 1%. It means, in fact, CPI minus 2%, with the reference CPI, with the European CPI at 3%. Lisbon, the impact will be plus 1%. Porto and Faro, the aeronautical fees will increase in line with the European CPI, so it will be plus 3%. For Gatwick, it is the contract and commitment framework. On average, the increase from April 2025 will be CPI minus 1%. Do not forget, since many years, it was RPI, the Retail Price Index. Since April 2025, within, let's say, the extended C&C framework, it is now CPI minus 1% for this year and the year after. The next two years, it will be CPI. That is for our main assets. After, for Aerodom, it will increase again next November.
It will be US CPI plus 3%. After. Already a big increase in 2024, you remember. In Belgrade, it will be the European CPI. I covered, I think, already a big part. We'll give you more granularity in the famous TAV A irports.
Thank you very much.
Thanks. There seems to be no further questions. I would like to hand back for closing remarks.
Thanks. Everybody, good luck with this publication and upcoming publications. Of course, the Investor Relations team remains at your entire disposal to follow up whenever you want. Have a nice evening. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.