Hello, and welcome to the Eramet management call related to Eramet's lithium project. My name is Josh, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. You have the opportunity to send questions through the chat during the webcast. Please note that this conference is being recorded, and I will now hand you over to your host, Christel Bories, Chair and CEO, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for being with us early in the morning. It's an important day for us as we announce the restart of the construction of our lithium plant in Argentina. As you know, development in metals for energy transition is a key pillar of our growth strategy, and this lithium project is the first key milestone in this development. We considered it important to spend some time together this morning to explain or, for some of you, re-explain the project in more details. Energy transition is not anymore a buzzword. It's now a reality. As COP26 is taking place in Glasgow, the world's attention is on climate.
The need for the energy transition is becoming a reality, and both companies and states are accelerating their action plans. On the second slide, you see that this transition will require metals, a lot of metals, because the storage and the transport of electricity goes through metals. Let's take the example of electric vehicles. By 2030, EVs will represent around 75% of European annual production, and about 40% of the global annual production of vehicles. The battery of a medium range EV requires on average 50 kilos of pure nickel, 7 kilos of cobalt, and 45 kilos of lithium.
To produce such quantities of metals, you need five tons of nickel ore for one EV and 125,000 liters of brine also for one EV. The consequence on the demand of these metals, key for the energy transition, is huge. By 2030, we estimate that global demand will be multiplied by two for nickel, by four for cobalt, and by six for lithium. This is huge, and this will require a lot of new projects and a lot of CapEx to supply such growth in demand. Next slide. In this context, Eramet has the historic chance to be at the heart of the solution.
We have in our portfolio of activities several of the critical metals for this transition, including this superb world-class lithium deposit located in Argentina in the Andean Highlands, with fantastic reserves of about 10 million lithium carbonate equivalent tons, which we restart today in partnership with Tsingshan. I'll come back to that. We also have the Weda Bay giant nickel deposit in Indonesia, which has big limonite resources and that we want to valorize through another key project, Sonic Bay, to produce high purity nickel and cobalt salts for batteries. This project is currently under development with BASF, and it is in the pre-feasibility study stage, and we should enter into the detailed feasibility stage early next year.
Since I joined as head CEO of this company, expanding Eramet's portfolio in metals for the energy transition has been a key pillar of our strategy. We are now in the position to accelerate this strategy, and we have decided to do it through partnerships to go faster and share financial risk as well as technical execution risk. Next slide. Now let's have a look at our lithium projects in more details. We have a long life brine deposit with resources estimated at 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. It represents about 40- years of production with the production of this, the first plant. We have 100% ownership of the Salar with perpetual mining rights.
We have developed, as you know, an in-house high-performance process with a high recovery rate of about 90% versus around 50% for conventional process and a very short lead time of one week versus 18 months. As you know, it takes a lot of time with the traditional conventional process to produce the lithium. This process has been successfully proven at our pilot plant in real conditions on site over the past two- years. The cash cost of this plant is expected to be around $3,500 per ton post ramp-up. This positions the project in the first quartile of the cash cost curve of the industry.
Finally, our site offers easy access to export logistics and infrastructure, and we benefit from a stable tax regime for 30- years. On next slide, you see that since the beginning of this project, we have been firmly focused on implementing top-notch sustainability standards and on continuously consolidating our social license to operate. In such a wild and fragile environment, this is not an option for us. It is mandatory, and we consider it is our responsibility. Our project is in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and includes a robust environmental program, significantly lower incidents on hydric balance versus conventional process. Long-lasting and constructive relationships with local stakeholders.
A solid local content with about 95% of the workforce expected to be local and about 50% of the sourcing of the company expected to be local. Since the beginning of our presence locally, we have significantly contributed to local community development, including education, but also local economic activities with, for example, 60 direct beneficiary of our Quinoa project over the past four- years. You know that sustainability is at the core of the business model of Eramet. This project will be in line with the best standards and continue to position Eramet as a reference in this area. It is all the more important as the way we produce metals for energy transition should respond to the ecological promise of this transition.
I will now leave the floor to Thomas Devedjian, our CFO, who will give you more details on the legal scheme and financial metrics of the project.
Thank you, Christel, and good morning to everyone. First of all, the financing, the scope of the project is the same as the one initially shared with you, which was mothballed in April 2020, as you can remember. We aim at building a facility to produce 24,000 tons battery-grade lithium carbonate equivalent per annum. Our balance sheet commitment will be very limited. We will control and operate the project with a 50.1% interest, and our cash contribution will be up to $25 million only. Our partner, Tsingshan, will contribute up to $375 million to finance the plant construction in exchange for 49.9% interest in the project. The commercial production will be shared on a pro rata basis.
Next slide, please. We expect a very quick time to market, thanks to a world-class development expertise on board. I remind you that all studies have been performed and that permits are in place. The environmental impact assessment was approved in February 2019. The definitive feasibility study was completed in April 2019. Tsingshan has proven and seamless project execution capabilities. We already teamed up at Weda Bay in Indonesia, as you remember, and it has been a success story. The plant was built in 20 months despite the ongoing health crisis and reached nameplate capacity well in advance. The teams are already in place, and they are fully ready. We have a seasoned management team with a very solid track record in direct lithium extraction technology, and the on-site training center has been fully running over the past 2- years. Slide 8.
The lithium market is a market with very sound fundamentals. The supply-demand balance shows a deficit, which is forecast to increase year- after- year over the next 10- years. We don't expect the market to rebalance by 2030. The price trend should remain therefore very favorable. Prices have been threefold since January 2021, beginning of the year. Average price for Q3 2021 is $15,700 per ton lithium carbonate equivalent, and the current spot price is around $25,000 per ton. Therefore, you can see that the long-term price assumption of $11,500 per ton can be considered as rather conservative. This is the assumption we've taken for the calculation of the IRR.
Taking into account the timing of our project commissioning and ramp up, as you can see, we are poised to enter the market at the right time. Slide nine. To summarize, the project key performance indicator are extremely robust. A yearly lithium carbonate equivalent production of 24,000 tons after ramp up. A cash cost ex works of $3,500 per ton, and an EBITDA at full ramp up of $160 million representing a 66% margin. The IRR, internal rate of return, 24% after tax, excluding CapEx already spent until project's mothballing, but based, as I said, on a rather conservative price assumption. This is clearly a strong value accretive project. I will now leave the floor to Christel for conclusion.
Thank you, Thomas. Eramet is bound to become the first European company to operate a large scale and sustainable lithium industrial complex, leveraging on its own process. We take great pride in this project and see it as an opportunity for Europe to secure tomorrow's critical metals for the energy transition. As Thomas said, we are up and running, and we are very confident that we have the right setting to make it a success. Since the early phases of the projects in 2019, the teams have remained highly committed, preserving the assets and maintaining strong relationships with all stakeholders. We are now ready to engage the site's development in the best conditions. We have a clear path to start up. In Q1 2022, we will start a plant construction.
In Q1 2024, the plant will be commissioned. In H2 2025, we will run at full capacity. As you can hear, in conclusion, we are very excited to relaunch this project, which is highly value-creating for Eramet, perfectly in line with our growth strategy, and it reflects our ambition to become a leader in metals for energy transition. Thank you for your attention. Now Thomas and I are ready to answer your question.
Thank you very much. We do have a question. It comes from Jason Fairclough from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Bonjour. Congratulations on the announcement. Looks interesting. Look, I just wanted to think a little bit about, you know, what Tsingshan is paying to get involved here. First, could you remind us what the sunk cost is in the project? Second, if I think about this, they're paying about $375 million to get about half of $165 million in EBITDA per year. On my math, that makes them paying about 4.5 times. Is this the right math, and is that a fair price?
Jason, the same cost is EUR 185 million already invested.
For now.
...in dollars. If you add this to the total amount expected to be expensed, you have the total number. The IRR with the price I've given would be 18% if we include the same cost. For us, given the fact that we've mothballed all the projects, and we stopped it, to restart it and add up to $25 million is a very good return.
Just versus the multiple, Jason, that you mentioned, you have to keep in mind that they are also taking the risk of the construction of the plant and the time it takes between the investment and the full ramp up. So it's also, it has to be factored in when you compute that kind of multiple. It's not as if they were buying a plant that is already built and full running.
The EBITDA multiple is a bit optimistic when you compare valuation with the other projects at the same level of development. For instance, when you look at other projects such as Tres Quebradas or Pastos Grandes, and you take the multiple, EV/Reserves or EV/Resources, which is, I think, the best way to compare. It's very favorable to the deal signed with Tsingshan.
Okay. Thank you.
There is no EBITDA for the moment.
Fair. Just one last follow-up if I could. If we look at EUR 165 million in EBITDA, how should we think about that in terms of translating into free cash flow? You know, sustaining CapEx and tax, I guess.
Regarding CapEx, there is a very limited amount of recurring CapEx. It's around $10 million per year. Regarding taxes, we have obtained a very favorable approval from the Argentinian government. We have a stability given for 30- years. Today, the tax rate is around 30%. That's how you can calculate the free cash flow.
Yeah.
Okay. In terms of last one, I'm sorry, I'm being a bit of a hog here. In terms of getting money out of Argentina, sometimes that's not so easy. What's the latest status?
The latest status is the decree, which has been approved in last April. Decree 234, to be precise. It gives us the possibility to freely receive 20% of foreign currencies we receive from exports to reimburse our debts and distribute dividends. We have plenty of flexibility and we have a very good dialogue with the authorities. We know we have all the possibilities to be able to obtain cash back if needed.
This decree has been passed just to, in fact, to attract this kind of project in Argentina. It allows us to be able to freely get a significant part of the cash flow generated out of Argentina. Beyond that, we have a discussion with the Central Bank of Argentina, which is also, I mean, willing to help us to be able to repatriate the rest through dividends if needed. You have to keep in mind also, Jason, that the idea then is to build a phase two, maybe a phase three, because this deposit has huge resources.
The first phase plant has only a capacity of 24,000 tons, which is not big. It's a normal standard module for this kind of plant. We expect, if it's working, to do quite soon after a phase two, and maybe after that a phase three. We'll have to reinvest the money internally if we do it.
Okay, understood. All right, thanks very much.
Just as a reminder, if you would like to ask questions, you can also input questions on the webcast. Our next question comes from Sylvain Brunet from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is now unmuted.
Good morning, Christel. Good morning, Thomas. My first question is on CapEx. If we follow your latest estimate, it looks like the new version of CapEx would be somewhat lower than the previous one. Just interested to know what has changed in the design. My second question is on the risk on raw material costs on procurement, whether Tsingshan, in the agreement you have with Tsingshan, whether they would bear the cost of any potential increase in raw material costs included in the EUR 375 million, or otherwise, how would this be shared? Thanks. Thank you.
The CapEx, Sylvain, is not the same as Thomas just said before. If you look at the CapEx already spent before is around
$185 million.
Yeah. $185 million is what we have spent, including some MOBO costs, but it's the ballpark of what we have spent before, plus $400 million that we are planning to invest now. It's adding to $585 million, and we had announced $595 million, if you remember right. We are exactly at the same level. The infrastructure part had already been built locally with the local camp, some infrastructure, the laboratories, the pilot plant, all this had been invested already before. It's exactly the same CapEx spend. Regarding the inflation in raw material, it's some...
We will see what is happening. If you also remember, in this EUR 180 million that we just mentioned already spent, there are already some equipment that had been ordered early long lead items CapEx had been launched. Part of the cost of the mothballing, which was quite important, if you remember, was in fact to finish these equipment and put them in boxes. Part of the CapEx, this part is not only not pure sunk cost. It's also equipment that have been put in boxes. It is already owned by the Eramet company. Of course, there will be the additional cost of all the construction locally.
If the cost goes beyond, at the end of the day, the $400 million that we are expecting, both partner will finance the extra cost proportionally. We will have 50% of the extra cost if it goes beyond the $400 million that we have estimated right now.
Okay. Thank you, very clear.
Again, just as a reminder, questions can also be put through the webcast. Our next question comes from Alain William from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead. Your line is now unmuted.
Yes. Good day, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. It's Alain William from Oddo BHF. I have one question, please. Could you give us a bit of context around the decision to share the cost and benefits of the project as opposed to going on your own a bit later, because the project was essentially de-risked from a technical standpoint, and you could have waited a bit to go with your own balance sheet later because clearly, having Tsingshan in the project reduced the viability.
Yes. You're right, but it was a decision, I mean that we assessed and that we took. We thought that it was absolutely important to move fast and restart the project quite quickly, in order to position ourselves in the lithium market as the market is right now in shortage. That's why we have a spot price that's close to $30,000 per ton right now, very high because of the shortage of lithium.
As you can see, there are already quite a lot of offtake contracts and discussions and investments in the lithium industry in order to be able to supply this huge demand that we have now and that is going to grow. We thought that the first mover advantage, quote-unquote, was important. That's the first point. The second point is that, of course, we are confident on the process, even if it's a new plant, it's a greenfield. We have other projects for Eramet.
You know, there is this Sonic Bay project that is quite big, that is coming, and that we want to accelerate as well, as much as we can. We have a recycling project in the battery area. We continue to grow in our other businesses. At the end of the day, we wanted to balance and not put all our risk and money in the same project. We thought it was a good compromise, I mean, to be able to restart the project soon. Sharing the risk and the financial risk and also the technical execution risk, even if we have largely debugged the process.
The idea is to be able to very soon after, as I said, after the start of this first plant, to be able to launch a new one. We think that together with Tsingshan, we will have the possibility to do it also very quickly and we will have the 50% of the phase two as well. We thought it was a good balance between creating value, sharing the risk and being able to go fast.
Okay. That's very clear. Great, thanks, Christel Bories.
Okay, we have no further questions, so I'll hand you back over to the speakers.
There is no question on the webcast? Okay. If there is no further question, thank you very much to all of you. I hope that you share with us this excitement that we have on the restart of this project. We are convinced that it's not only a high value creation for Eramet, but also I mean the start of a great story in the metals for energy transition. We are very happy to be able to restart this project now. Thank you very much. Have a good day. We will certainly have the opportunity to talk to you and the team, the IR team, in the coming days. Thank you.
Thank you very much for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your handsets. Hosts, please stay on the line. Thank you.