Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. Very nice to be here. Thank you for investing the time with us today. We have today myself, Paulo Castellari, CEO of Eramet, and Abel Martins- Alexandre, the Chief Financial Officer for the company. I think I have met some of you, but I think it's still worth investing a few words just to introduce myself. I have been with Eramet for the last six months, and I have been working in the industry for the last 30 years. I have been able to operate in many different ways in companies, in major capital projects, different functions, marketing, finance, you name it. So it's been a privilege and an honor to be here with Eramet and joining the team.
I want to hand over to Abel so that Abel can introduce himself to you, and then we'll take you through what is it that we're going to cover today. Please, Abel.
Thank you, Paulo, and good afternoon, everyone. I know a number of you, and I look forward to meeting everyone I have not met as yet. So I am Abel Martins- Alexandre, or Abel Martins Alexandre, as Paulo would otherwise say. So I've got 15 years' experience in financial services, but also 15 years' experience in the mining sector. So thank you, Paulo, for having me in your leadership team. I think my experience comes very handy when it comes to supporting you and the team in improving operational performance, but also in very much having a more disciplined approach to performance management and finally to restore financial strength. So thank you, Paulo.
No, thank you. Thank you very much, Abel, and indeed, it's great to have you in the team, and it's going to be a great journey, I'm sure, so before we actually start, let me tell you why we're here. I have been with the company for now for six months, and I was looking forward to having the opportunity to first share with you what we have been learning, but also what is it that we had ahead of us, and as Abel said, I think it's going to be very interesting to leverage Abel's capabilities, experience on what is it that we have ahead of us, so I wanted to start today's conversation the same way we start any engagement at Eramet, excuse me, with a safety share.
It's a very important moment for us where we have the chance to reflect on performance, on experiences that we leverage across the group. We have been facing serious challenges in 2025 when it comes to safety. There's no other way of saying it. We have had five, sorry, we have had four losses of life in our operations in 2025, and obviously, this is simply not acceptable. Our sympathy, our thoughts go to the families and friends of our colleagues, but rest assured that we are very focused to address the situation with the experience, with the capabilities that we have on the ground. Although we have had, and we're having a challenging year in terms of safety, I have also seen pockets of excellence in terms of safety here in Eramet.
Our operations in Senegal, for instance, have been lost time injury-free for the last six years, which is a fantastic achievement by any standard. So we are confident that we can leverage these achievements across the group. So we're confident on that. So not only safety sits at the heart of everything we do, but also it's a very important stepping stone to actually bring efficiency to our operations. In my experience, I have never seen a safe operation that is not efficient. I mean, having a safer operation will enable us to have less stoppages, more efficiency. So we will be able to leverage a safe operation into what is it that we want to achieve in terms of efficiency.
I wanted to give you highlights and the key messages, what is it that we're going to discuss with you today, sharing that 2025 has been a challenging year when it comes to environment, in terms of the macroeconomic environments, commodity prices. We also suffered with exchange rates. We want to talk to you about the two very important exercises that we carried out over the last six months on safety and on operational improvement. We want also to share with you proven execution capability. We want to share with you what's been happening at Centenario, which will be a step, will be the playbook that we want to use going forward for all our operations. We will provide you more detail on Resolution, the group-wide program that we launched that targets between EUR 130 million and EUR 170 million run rate to be down within the next two years.
And also want to share what we have been doing this year to address the challenges that I just mentioned now, delivering between EUR 60 million and EUR 70 million one-off cash improvements still this year. So to start setting the scene, I mentioned I have been with the group for the last six months. I have been able to visit all our sites, all our operating sites. I have been able to visit most of our sales offices. I have engaged with more than two and a half thousand of our colleagues, which was a very, very important piece for me, something that I always did everywhere I worked. I strongly believe in that. I have been able to learn a lot from everywhere I've been, and it's been great to learn, but also to confirm some of the thoughts that I had.
I have been able to see the quality of our teams. I have been able to see the potential that our assets have. And I have also seen very interesting stories across the group. In Senegal, I have engaged with our sustainability managers, for instance, who have been sharing their experience with IRMA, which is a very, very important piece for our longer-term strategy. We have, as I mentioned, had mixed experiences in terms of safety, but as I said, I mean, there are pockets of excellence. I have also been able to see our ability to have people moving around the group, which is something that is very interesting because we have a vast footprint in terms of our operations. So it is very, very interesting.
I strongly believe that we have been given two years, one month for a reason, and I intend to work them under that proportion. So this process of learning, understanding, being on the ground with the team has been very, very important for me. As I said, more than two and a half thousand of our colleagues, I have met with state leaders, unions, our customers, clients, and again, a very, very important piece in the journey that we're taking ahead. I mentioned that what has been happening in Centenario is a playbook, is a very good example. It's showing how is it that we want to operate going forward in Eramet. I think you remember that after the startup of the plant in November 2024, we faced challenges with a piece of equipment that presented malfabrication and challenges in the commissioning side.
In May-June, when we started looking at the project, we have been able to step back and review the plan that we have ahead of us in terms of the ramp-up. We have reviewed our plans. We have reviewed our risk management practices. We have carried out a detailed statistical simulation of the entire system at Centenario, and that brought us very, very important pieces to redo our plan, to look at benchmarks, bring in new practices, and the results are there. Right now, we are at 65% nameplate capacity. We have been delivering on our plan consistently, and we are very well positioned to deliver on the plan that we have revised, so it is a very good example on how is it that we want to take the business forward around planning, around discipline, action, and around being realistic on the plans that we put forward.
I want to head over to Abel now so that he can share with us what it is that we have seen in 2025 in terms of the challenges, both on the short and on the long term. Please, Abel.
Thank you, Paulo. So I mean, I joined two months ago, two and a half months ago now, and must have been struck by the changing macroeconomic environment in which we have been operating, which is not unique to ourselves, but might be affecting some of our commodities a bit more than others. So at the macroeconomic level, there are really four factors that you will know well about. I mean, number one, we've had a manufacturing contraction in China for the last six months that's exemplified by the PMI below 50. Also, I mean, we are a business that thrives on open trade. The U.S. tariff has increased significantly, as we all know, to 18% versus 3% a year ago. And we have recently been affected by the safeguard measures from the European Union, for which the impact still needs to be fully assessed.
We have had a persistent downward trend on industrial commodities since 2023. And the question as per whether we are in a lower for longer scenario. And finally, as you alluded to, Paulo, the exchange rate has been adverse to us as well since we've had an appreciation of the euro versus dollar of 13% year to date. Now, how is it reflected in our commodity prices? I won't go through this chart. It will be well known to everyone. But where we are at today is probably at cyclical lows. We are, in some instances, at prices as low as COVID times. At times, actually, average prices are as low as 2016. That's the case of the average price today for manganese ore, for example, or 2019, and that's the case for ilmenite and zircon. So we are really in a significantly depressed pricing environment.
Market consensus and market expectations point to a recovery of these prices over time, and certainly in 2026, and of course, all these commodities would have different points at the economic and commodity cycle. But the thing I want to emphasize is that we are not managing the business purely hoping on pricing recovery. We are managing the business based on being a great operator, and Paulo, you'll come back to that, and of course, being very efficient on cost, but clearly, we are in commodities that we like, in which we believe the long-term fundamentals, and they remain unchanged. The structural growth drivers remain very strong, and there are two ways of looking at it. Number one, on the energy transition and electrification-led commodities, that is mostly lithium and nickel. I mean, we see a doubling of the demand in the next 10 years, so significant CAGRs.
This has not changed, and we're only getting started on this front, and secondly, the commodities geared towards more economic growth, and in particular, the demand for crude steel production remain intact in terms of their long-term fundamentals. We are starting from a very large base, and we actually see growth in steel, in particular in India, but in the rest of emerging markets, in particular because the steel intensity in these markets is still relatively low compared to China and the U.S. and OECD countries for that matter, so headwinds at the moment, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, and we might be seeing a recovery in 2026, although again, the way we manage the business is all about being a great operator, disciplined, and ensuring that we manage costs very effectively. On that, I'll hand over back to you, Paulo.
Thank you, Abel. So what we heard about the short-term challenges that we have been facing in 2025, we also had a view on the long-term fundamentals. What I wanted to do now, it's actually establish a link between these long-term fundamentals, the capabilities that we have in place at Eramet, and how is it that we're going to leverage those and use those linked to our tier one assets. So looking at some of them that we list there to share with you, I mean, over the last six months, some of my beliefs have been confirmed, and also I have been learning a lot. Starting with Act for Positive Mining, the way that we do business and continues to be a very important piece, a cornerstone in terms of a competitive advantage for us that we will continue to work on.
The fact that we have a high-caliber team of exploration experts. Some of you may know that both Centenario and PT Weda Bay were exploration discoveries by Eramet's teams, so a very, very important capability that we have in-house. We also have been working closely on the DLE technology that we have rolled out in Centenario successfully. Excuse me. The fact that we have been able to prove our ability to deliver on the project and on the ramp-up, as I shared with you, the Centenario playbook, and also the fact that we have a well-established marketing team with long-standing relationships and a deep knowledge on the markets that we operate. This will be the backbone to actually leverage the value that we have in each of our assets.
Going through each part of our portfolio from Gabon to Indonesia, Senegal, and Argentina, all our assets are long life, high grade, and low cost. All our assets are scalable and very well positioned in the cost curve. So we are translating that to cash cost, as I said. When it comes to manganese, we are the largest producer of high-grade ore manganese. We are well positioned in the first quartile of the cost curve, and the same applying for Centenario that right now does not play a very big role in terms of the size of the industry, but it's a well-scalable asset that will provide us the ability to have a more significant position in the industry. But as I said, all assets, long life, high grade, low cost that will enable us to take the journey we have ahead of us.
Having set the scene, having spoken about the long-term fundamentals and how is it that our capabilities will enable us to leverage value, I wanted to share some of the fundamentals around Resolution, the program that we have put in place. Two exercises that we carried out over the last six months that were fundamental as the starting point. We carried out a group-wide safety diagnosis to understand where is it that we are. I shared with you some of the challenges that we have and at the same time, the pockets of excellence that we have in the group when it comes to safety. But it's going to be the starting point for the plan. I'll share a little bit more with you later on, and also the Eramet performance review, which we referred to in July when we talked about our half-year results.
An in-depth operational review of everything, of all our operations, setting up a baseline, understanding the drivers that we need to focus to realize value. Three main groups that Resolution is organized under. The first one being around, excuse me, around safety. A second one looking at operational excellence and commercial excellence, and a third one looking at financial resilience. These three blocks all linked and supported by a group-wide value office where we're going to centralize all the information, the processes, understanding, giving it the right pace, giving it the right relevance and visibility across the group so that we also work on this culture of performance, a culture of accountability and ownership. If we looked at each of them in a little bit more detail, in terms of safety, what is it that we've done so far? We have updated the group safety policy.
We also have been able to establish this very strong and important link between operational safety and performance, and we have drawn out our two-year roadmap to enable us to reach our goal of zero harm. We will continue to work on risk management as a founding base for safety, but also for operating performance and work on the culture to support zero harm, as I said. A very, very important starting point within the program. We then look at operational excellence and productivity. I shared with you in the beginning that this piece of Resolution is expected to deliver between EUR 120 million and EUR 150 million EBITDA uplift over the next two years. We estimate that just over half of it will come from productivity improvement.
Just over a third of it will come from cost efficiencies and process efficiencies, and another 5%-10% from improvement in terms of procurement. We have looked at all our businesses. We have more than 50 initiatives already identified, and we will continue to find other initiatives to feed the portfolio of improvement as any other improvement program that we have done in the past, looking at operational improvements, maintenance practices, focusing on costs, productivity. Excuse me. Looking at opportunities to push volume and, of course, dilute fixed costs, as well as focusing on the safety side across the board.
If we looked at a little bit into more detail, starting with the value chain of manganese, what we have done here is that with my experience and working with bulk products, typically there are very good opportunities, good value opportunities when we start looking at integrated planning, when we start being sharper in our practices around sales and operating planning, and also on commercial excellence, which we'll cover in a minute. So leveraging all that, starting with manganese ore, what we want to do is to continue to improve our logistics side, I mean, train and loading capacity. We want to work on the maintenance side so that we can shorten the maintenance time. Moving to the transport part of the value chain, looking at ways to improve our cycle times, optimizing traffic, introducing new practices, new tools to improve asset reliability.
And then finally, on the manganese alloys piece, making sure that we have ways to optimize raw material blends so that we can get a better mix in terms of our final products. And also we've been working on ways to monetize our byproducts at each of our plants. If we looked at the rest of our portfolio at PT Weda Bay Nickel, excuse me, the focus is to continue working with our majority shareholders on the safety side. We're very confident that getting the safety right will bring operational improvements, and that's the focus at PT Weda Bay Nickel. Looking at mineral sands in Senegal, we want to make sure that we continue pushing volumes so that we can leverage on cost controls and on cost efficiencies, and also working on the zircon side with improving our product recovery, which will also bring benefits.
Finally, on lithium, we will continue to focus, of course, on the ramp-up, but there is very good work underway to optimize reagent consumption, which is, of course, an important piece of our operating costs, as well as continue to work on the product grade so that when the time comes, when the prices are there, we're ready to capture better margins in lithium. Still on lithium, and as I shared with you in the beginning, I wanted to invest a little bit more time on what has been happening on the ramp-up for Centenario. I mentioned that the first half of this year we faced challenges with equipment during the initial commissioning, but since May, June, we have redone our plans.
As you can see there in the orange curve, we have been able to outperform not only other projects of similar scale and similar nature, but also we have been able to outperform the benchmarks with the shaded area in that slide there with the McNulty curves. Right now, we are at 65% nameplate capacity. We plan to reach 90% by mid-next year, and then by the end of 18 months from May, June this year, we expect to reach 100% again, outperforming any standard in the industry. We will continue to work, of course, on having a dependable, stable system when it comes to production, but at the same time, focusing on costs. We have shared with you in 2024 the cash operating costs for Centenario at $5,000 per ton ex-works.
We all know that during 2024 and 2025, we experienced inflation and also negative effects impact in Argentina. We estimate that to have a negative impact in our costs, but as I mentioned, we are looking at optimizing reagents, looking at volumes to see what is it that we can offset in terms of costs, and we are targeting a $5,400-$5,800 per ton operating cash cost once we reach nameplate capacity. Again, an ongoing process, but the important thing is that we will be able to reach a stable, dependable system when it comes to volumes and then start working in optimizing our costs. I wanted to hand over to you, Abel, so that you can share with us the work that we've been doing on the commercial side, which is, of course, a very important lever in the program as well. Please.
Thank you, Paulo, and of course, being a great operator is absolutely key for us, and Paulo, you've indicated a significant EBITDA uplift that we can draw from operational excellence, but good miners are also good marketers, and there's nothing new in what we are doing here. There's nothing that we have not done before, and commercial excellence is a good example of it. Good work has been done by commercial teams who are really good, and more will be done. I'm particularly interested in this as I've worked on commercial excellence programs before, and every mining company goes through this journey of trying to increase the value stemming from commercial excellence, so we have identified to date a run rate EBITDA potential uplift of EUR 10 million - EUR 20 million to be delivered within the next two years, and that's really to start with four main levers.
It starts with evolving a go-to-market approach for lithium. I know we speak quite a bit of lithium. We like it. We're very excited about our project, but also about the capacity we have to actually target higher growth, higher margin regions and segments of the market. So that's the first level. The second level, and probably the more important in terms of EBITDA contribution, where again, we're only getting started, is on supply chain excellence. At the end of the day, mining is also a logistics business, and there's a lot we are going to do to boost efficiency, resilience across the value chain through advanced planning, through logistics, through optimization of inventory, and of course, through discipline execution.
I mean, there's a lot to be done in terms of sales and operations planning, which we are not yet doing in the disciplined way as we see being done in other companies, for example. The third pillar is on the sharpening of our product market fit. Again, we have good products and good segments where we carry good margins. We believe more could be done and will be done on this front, and again, it's focusing on the higher value segments and tailoring our offering and our markets, our products to that effect, and the third level is very much about upgrading the performance management in the way we measure, in the way we report, but also in the way we look at contracts. I mean, there are some contracts where we may not draw the margins we want.
We are reviewing these contracts to make sure that we have a better pricing, to make sure that we embed value in use and technical marketing aspects to it. And there's, across the commercial excellence program, almost 20 initiatives that we have identified, that we have measured, for which we have a plan of execution, and that's the start of this commercial excellence journey, which adds to the operational excellence program that you've just described, Paulo, within a broader program of transformation. The third aspect, and I'll move to the financial resilience, which is, of course, extremely important to us and a key priority.
We have started to take action six months and nine months ago already, well before I joined, but we have continued in taking action, and that's to start with a cash boost program to reduce the cash burn that we have faced over the last many months. We've taken a number of one-off measures on cost, on working capital, on CapEx. We've reduced the CapEx, as you know, the guidance to EUR 425 million, and you'll see our CapEx for next year reduce significantly. We will take additional one-off measures if necessary in the future. We are, of course, very much focused on maintaining an adequate level of liquidity, which we are satisfied with. We have secured our liquidity through the bank waiver that, as you know, we had requested as part of our Q3.
This is all about making sure that we continue to benefit from, as I said, adequate liquidity, but also access to markets at large. We'll continue to engage with our lenders from which we have their support. More broadly, we have started a financial transformation program, which very much goes to liquidity, making sure that we boost cash, making sure that we take action across cost, working capital, CapEx, and to make sure that, of course, we also reinforce our balance sheet through deleveraging. There will be a number of measures being taken in the next few months. The key word across everything we do is discipline. Of course, as we go into the next year and into full year results, we will give you more indication in terms of how we intend to maintain financial resilience and strengthen our balance sheet.
So the commitment that we have is very much, as I mentioned, to deleveraging, to strengthen the balance sheet, and to embed much more discipline in everything we do. At the end of the day, this business needs to improve its cash flow generation, and we have started to change the curve. We believe we'll turn back to a cash flow positive, free cash flow positive situation during the delivery of this transformation program, and we are very committed to financial strength. So with that, I'll hand over back to you, Paulo.
Thank you. Thank you, Abel. And I cannot stress enough how privileged we are to have Abel in the team because many of these actions that we have been talking about, be it in the commercial excellence side, be it on the financial discipline side, there are things that Abel has done before, and we're very excited to be able to leverage that. So talking still about Resolution, how is it that we're going to look at it? This is a group-wide initiative, as I mentioned, and we have an initial set of projects, of initiatives that focus on operational commercial excellence as well as other levers. Abel talked about the fact that we already have been able to deliver between EUR 60 million and EUR 70 million of one-off free cash flow impact in 2025.
So these are actions that we have taken to address the challenges we've been facing this year. The bulk of Resolution, as it is today, between EUR 130 million and EUR 170 million EBITDA uplift over the next two years, of which EUR 120 million and EUR 150 million comes from operational improvement and another EUR 10 million-EUR 20 million from commercial excellence. And again, it doesn't stop here, right? We will continue to look at opportunities during this process, but the foundations are in place, and I am more and more convinced that we have what it takes to deliver on that. So to conclude, and then I will be very happy to take questions.
I am convinced that having seen what I've seen, having learned what I learned, confirming many of the beliefs I have, but also learning a lot, that we have what it takes to take the company to a different level, to build a more efficient, more fit-for-purpose organization. We have done this before. We will do this again. We will be able to leverage the existing capabilities that I shared with you that are already in place, but also have been able to bring new practices, strengthening the team so that we can focus on what matters, doing it safely, responsibly. Five very important pillars that will continue to guide us during this journey and beyond, starting with what matters most, safety and positive mining. Act for Positive Mining will continue to be a cornerstone for us.
It is a key source of competitive advantage, is the way that we do business, being ready to leverage the capabilities I mentioned and the quality of our assets to deliver operational excellence, going through everything that Abel shared with us in terms of being disciplined and rigorous when it comes to financial performance, continuing to work to create a culture of ownership, of delivery, of performance so that we are ready and we will have the ability to be ready for the future when it comes, given, of course, the fact that we are in the right industries looking at the long-term potential. So with that, I would like, again, Abel, thank you for being with us. Thank you, everyone, for being here. Very happy to take any questions you may have.
Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver before asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Paul Ciana of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, Paulo. Good afternoon, Abel. This is Paul Ciana from Bank of America. I just wanted to ask on leverage, right? I see your release says you've obtained a waiver on your gearing covenant. How should we think about deleveraging from here? Is it fair to assume that we now reach sort of peak leverage and then it's all down from here? That would be my question. Thank you.
Yeah, Paul, thank you very much. So we are very much committed to deleveraging, as I mentioned, and it starts with generating free cash flow. And as I indicated, we have changed the curve there, and we expect to become free cash flow positive again during the period of delivery of this plan. That's the first point. And the second point is, of course, we are looking at a range of options to accelerate, if we can, the strengthening of the balance sheet.
Great. Thank you. And then maybe one, if I can squeeze one more in on Centenario. You're saying you expect to be around 80%-90% of nameplate by mid-2026. Is that when you expect to be also EBITDA break even, or will Centenario already contribute this year?
You can take that or. Yeah, no, I'll take this. We expect Centenario to become EBITDA positive at the end of the ramp-up. I think the question was about whether we would get 90% nameplate right by mid-2026. I think that's correct.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
The next question is from Maxime Kogge, Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Hello, both, and thank you for this presentation. My first question is basically there were some speculation that you might go for some disposals or even a capital increase. Nothing of that has been announced today. Can you tell us why you did not opt for these options and whether you would still be able to consider them in the future? That's my first one.
I can't really comment on speculations. The other point we can say, of course, I mean, all options are always open, but I mean, very much the reason why we're here today is very much to focus on our improvement program. Our number one priority is to improve the operational performance of the business. That's very much what we are focusing on now.
And if I may, Maxime, as well, I think I am very confident that the exercise that we've been through has elevated our understanding of our assets. It is the starting point of really taking the most value of our assets in a safe, in a responsible manner so that we're ready for any processes that we may have to consider in the future.
Okay. Fair enough. And the second one is on manganese alloys. So there is no safeguard in place, but the implications are a bit complex. There seems to be a positive pricing effect, but also possibly a negative volume effect since you're based out of Europe for most of your production. So can you perhaps explain to us what you view are the impacts for Eramet?
Yeah, Maxime, to be quite frank, I don't think anyone in the industry has yet assessed the impact of the safeguard measures. You correctly say our business in Europe. Now where we have three plants there is out of the safeguard measures. It's a very complex picture. It's even a complex formula to actually understand the actual tariffs that are being applied or the duties, I should say, that are being applied. There will be a volume effect. There would be a volume effect. There would be a price effect. We are currently assessing what that effect is. I think everyone else is trying to. The market is a bit unsettled at the moment, so we'll have to wait and get a better assessment of how the supply-demand mechanisms settle and also how the trade routes actually settle depending on the different products: low-carbon, high-carbon, ferromanganese, and silicomanganese.
I think it's just a complex picture at the moment.
Okay. Right. And just the last one, yeah, is on nickel. So good that you have been able to tell us that you expect to reach the upper end of your production guidance for lithium. But as far as nickel is concerned, do you have more visibility whether you will be able also there to reach your higher end? I guess the bottleneck there is less the mining throughput than the logistics and the ability of the clients to absorb your volumes in such a short period of time.
I mean, it's still an oversupplied market, as you know. The products we market directly in per ton NPI still carry a good premium. Overall, listen, it's an oversupplied market, and the prices have not yet recovered in the way we wanted them to recover, of course. But there is a clearing price at any given supply-demand curve, and that's the same for the output that we market out of the assets there.
Okay. Thank you.
I should say, by the way, that for nickel, we confirm the guidance as for the other commodities. Today was not related to guidance, so we do confirm the guidance in terms of volumes and in terms of prices and in terms of CapEx, as I mentioned earlier on. And as far as nickel is concerned, we are in the 36 million -39 million wet metric tons of external sales.
All right. Thank you.
Next question is from William Dennis, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. My question is on the covenant waiver in the release. I am curious if it's going to be tested again in June 2026, and what's the plan for that? And also, when it comes to Centenario, what is your view on the volumes you see for 2026 as well as the kind of pricing you expect going forward? That will be all for me. Thank you.
The waivers are tested at the end of June and the end of December. The simple answer to your question is that we do want to maintain an adequate level of liquidity, and we are confident that we can achieve that using a range of options at our disposal.
Thank you. Just as a follow-up on the covenant test, what is the level? What's the gearing ratio?
It's a ratio of net debt to equity, and it's at one. I don't know whether we provide that otherwise to the market, but it's one time.
Okay. That's great. And again, on the question on Centenario.
I can pick that up.
Yeah.
So thank you, William. On Centenario, it's too early to provide volume guidance. We plan to do that next time we meet in February next year, but we have indicated the ramp-up plans, and we're confident to achieve those. Again, I think in terms and to the second part of your question on prices, we see the same sources that everyone does. We're confident on the long-term plan, on the long-term level, but consensus for next year is in the region of 10,000-11,000.
Okay. Okay. Great. Thank you. And all the best of luck.
Thank you very much.
Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you.
We have a question from the webcast regarding Gabon. How will Gabon 2029 ban on manganese ore exports impact Eramet's turnaround strategy?
No, thank you for the question. We have discussed this last time we met. We continue to work. As you know, we have a long-standing presence in Gabon. We continue to work closely with the government there, with the players there. We see ways to work together and will continue to work together. Manganese is an important part of our business, and we definitely are confident that we'll find ways to continue working and operating in Gabon.
We have a question regarding manganese. What happened to manganese this year? Were there new problems, or were there problems that had been building gradually and which just came to a head?
So in general, when it comes to manganese, we did face challenges. We have faced challenges in the beginning of the year related to logistics, which have been largely resolved. The key focus for us going forward will be around unlocking capacity. We understand we have been improving a lot the practices at the mine in terms of planning, in terms of adherence to plans, making sure that we can manage grades in a much more effective manner. So this is encouraging. We continue to work on end-to-end planning because I think that's one area that there is room to improve. And again, the focus for the next coming years and also part of the improvement plan, it's going to be around our ability to accelerate the renewal of the track so that we can unlock the capacity that we know it's there.
You mentioned that you are still evaluating options to accelerate deleveraging. Why make announcements today rather than waiting for a complete plan?
So, Paulo can wait in as well, but I think, I mean, you will recognize that today is an announcement where we are providing a significant EBITDA uplift stemming from the asset performance review that Paulo mentioned and carried out over the last six months, stemming from a significant amount of work that we've done across the organization, across the assets, and stemming from a very disciplined approach to evaluating improvement potential, making sure that we measure them, making sure that we track them, making sure that we execute on them, so I think it's quite significant, and that's the first point. The second point, there are broader aspects of the transformation program that we are embarking on. I've mentioned commercial excellence.
I've also mentioned transformation, and there will be a series of initiatives that we'll be taking to make sure that not only do we improve operationally, but also financially, and financial strength is an important point. We will provide, as part of our new results on the 18th of February, more, well, of course, guidance for the year, but also more information on how we are doing on our improvement program, including on our financial resilience program.
Thank you, Abel. If I may add as well, I think there's a couple of points from my side. First, I have made the commitment to come back with the results from the performance review, and I was looking forward to that opportunity because there's many, many interesting learnings, confirmed again many of my beliefs and learned more. I am very confident this is a very comprehensive plan, and we've done this before, and it is evolving. It will continue to evolve. We wanted to make sure to be transparent. We wanted to be upfront to say, "This is what is it that we're pursuing, looking at the different levers." But going forward, we also want to provide you more and more visibility, granularity on the plans so that we can track them as they evolve. It is a comprehensive plan, but it will evolve.
But to me, it's really around the commitment of coming back to you and also making sure that we are able to track each of these levers that we shared with you today.
What gives management confidence that this time will be different when previous productivity plan failed to generate cash improvement?
I will start. The first point is that I can't really comment on what was done in the past, and there are different circumstances at different points in time, and if anything, I mean, this is a business that over the years has maintained great assets and has managed to retrofit the business in a great way, so now, the first thing I would say on this is that we've been able to deliver on a cash boost program that we'll have delivered at the end of the year between EUR 60 million and EUR 70 million. And that's significant given the operational and the macroeconomic and pricing environment in which we have been operating, which has been very, very tough, so it shows that we are capable of taking action. We will take more action as required on the tactical opportunistic way. Now, structurally, things are different.
We have, as Paulo mentioned, identified opportunities across the portfolio. We have identified productivity improvement, cost efficiency, process efficiency, procurement optimization program. These are identified in a deliberate way. They are being implemented. They are being tracked. Teams are on it. So it's part of a transformation program that is extremely disciplined. The same thing on embedding a culture of discipline, sorry, a culture of discipline on cost, on CapEx, on trade working capital. So I think we are pretty confident and committed to delivering on that.
I mean, if I may add as well, I mean, I do understand the question and the concern, but today we showed you areas that have already worked. We shared with you what happened with Centenario. This is what we are putting in place for the rest of the organization. As Abel said, there is a very, very clear roadmap in terms of what are the areas that we need to explore, what are the KPIs that we want to track. We have put in place across the board a value office that will provide the visibility to the entire organization, and it's not going to be different with you. We're not going to overpromise. We will show you progress quarter by quarter, looking at each of the value drivers, each of the initiatives. But more importantly, I mean, we've done this before.
I am very confident that we will be able to leverage the capabilities that we shared with you, that we have learned and identified, but also bringing new practices and strengthening the team, as I mentioned, so very confident that it is a robust plan and a plan that will evolve with time, but again, making sure that we show you progress quarter by quarter.
Regarding the Resolution plan, what are the expected one-off costs associated to the Resolution plan?
We are not providing a specific indication on the one-off costs today. We will provide more information as part of our new results on the 18th of February. I mean, you see in transformation programs, generally speaking, and I'm not providing any guidance here, but 20%-25% of the costs being of the program, sorry, 20%-25% of the program generating costs the first year. I think we see probably similar numbers. We will provide more guidance on the 18th of February.
Important also to mention, right, Abel, that the work that we've been doing on CapEx optimization was strongly supported by a very detailed risk analysis. So what we are putting forward in terms of optimizing CapEx is already in place, and it's based by, and it's substantiated by detailed risk analysis, and the numbers that we provided you in terms of the EBITDA uplift assume no major CapEx, so this is a very important assumption that we have put in place, but as I said, quarter on quarter, we will update you on what is it that's going to be around the plan, but no major CapEx is associated with the improvement we shared, and all the optimization CapEx that we mentioned have been substantiated by very detailed risk analysis so that we know where is it that we can postpone, cancel altogether, or actually optimize.
Following on CapEx, could you share with us how much CapEx are required by the plan, especially at Comilog?
Again, we are not providing specific guidance on the CapEx related to the improvement plan here. I think we know that the main value driver for the business and for the improvement plan stems from, as Paulo mentioned, the bottlenecking and the range of CapEx that is required there to continue on the improvement program at rail is between EUR 70 million and EUR 80 million , or it has been over the last couple of years, between EUR 70 million and EUR 80 million . Again, the guidance for 2026 will be communicated at the end of February.
So regarding strategy to increase exposure to metal related to energy transition, is it still a priority or not anymore?
No, thank you for the question. It's a very good one. Nothing has changed in our strategy. We strongly believe in the strategy that we put forward. I mean, we are very well placed to both service markets that are well established in the current economy as well as markets that will grow, as Abel shared, in the long run. We have, of course, to be disciplined. We will be able, we want to make sure that we look at reasonable and disciplined growth. So right now, the priorities will be to make sure that we deliver a stable, sustainable production system at Centenario so that we can reach full capacity, optimize our costs, and then be very well placed to scale up that one deposit, and these are the short-term priorities, but the strategy hasn't changed.
So following on that, do you plan to significantly invest to boost production in Centenario by end 2027? And how quickly could you reduce growth CapEx back to versus 2025 level?
So let's talk about CapEx first, right? Because again, I think it's a wider conversation, right? Again, we're not going to talk about what is it that's going to be the CapEx plan for 2026, but important to mention that we are in a continuous process to optimize our CapEx because of the reasons you know around financial discipline, right? When it comes to investing further in Centenario, I mentioned it is a fantastic deposit, a deposit that's scalable, but we're not going to do any investments before we are absolutely in control of what the current production system can do. In my experience, once you have reached design capacity, there's typically further potential. So we want to make sure that we optimize the investment that is on the ground, and then we start thinking about what is it that's next.
We continue investing sensibly on the studies, so we understand what are our options, so that we're not going to let go. But again, it's going to be around making sure that we optimize the current system. I don't know, Abel, if it is.
No, I would just add that, as I mentioned earlier on, we will materially reduce CapEx. Again, this is all about making sure that we go back into a positive free cash flow position as quickly as possible, certainly during the period of the plan. So growth CapEx will, in this context, significantly decrease. We are also increasing the discipline in regards to CapEx. So we want to get more out of less, so to say, more asset integrity, more productivity, better delivery.
Regarding SLN, is there a contribution from SLN in the resolution plan? And is there any opportunity to fully separate from SLN? This would help with the transparency of the reporting.
So nothing's changed on the arrangements with SLN. Right now, what we presented in Resolution does not include any improvement from SLN. And right now, what is it? We don't plan to change anything related to SLN as per before.
I think we have a few remaining questions. Just in terms of market perspective and demand supply, what makes you think that demand supply will recalibrate in 2026 and going forward?
The market seems to think so. We might have different views depending on commodities to the market. We do not see an immediate recovery in most of the commodities in which we operate. We're certainly not managing the business on the hope of a recovery in general. I mean, of course, the long-term fundamentals are strong, as we articulated. We do manage a business more and more so, making sure that we are very well positioned in a cost curve, very well disciplined on cost optimization. That's what I would say about that. Of course, our assets are well positioned to that effect, as Paulo mentioned earlier on.
I think next week, you will also hold a webinar regarding your assets in Argentina, Centenario. What should we expect to learn more next week on this asset?
Let me kick off, and then those of you who will be there will be with Abel. Abel will be with you over there as well as with the local team. I am very excited, very happy with the fact that we have been able to organize this visit next week. What you're going to see firsthand is what we described and shared with you today, a playbook, the way that we plan to manage our operations going forward. You will see an operation that has started the right way, following very, very strict sustainability practices. You will see a number of world practices in play. But as I said, more importantly, you will be able to see how it all brings together the current capabilities that Eramet has in terms of the technology, dominating the technology on the DLE, the scalability of the deposit.
You will be able to see the potential that we have in terms of growth and how well positioned we are for the long-term prospects for lithium.
This will end the Q&A session. We don't have any more questions from the webcast. Thank you.
Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you for investing the time, and thank you, Abel, and again very much look forward to being in touch with you again soon, and I am very confident that we'll be able to share more and very, very excited about the future ahead of us. Thank you very much.
Thank you, everyone.