Good morning, everybody. I'm very glad to welcome you here in London. My name is Dominique D'Hinnin. I'm the Chairman of the Board of Eutelsat Communications, and I'm very glad to introduce this meeting this morning. The team who will be presenting the show this morning is first Eva Berneke, our CEO, Sandrine Téran, our CFO, Jean-Hubert Lenotte, our Chief Strategy Officer, and Pascal Homsy, who is our Chief Technology Officer. On the OneWeb side, we are happy to have Neil Masterson, the CEO of OneWeb, Srikanth Balachandran, the CFO of OneWeb, and Massimiliano Ladovaz, who is Chief Technology Officer of OneWeb.
On top of that, on the screen, I mean, by video, Sunil Mittal, the first shareholder of OneWeb, will be there as well, ready to answer your question. I now give the floor to Eva, who is going to present to you the whole project.
Thank you, Dominique, and thank you to everybody, and welcome to London, both for you, those of you who actually made it physically into this room, very pleased to see you, but of course also to all of you who will be on the screens, from everywhere in the world. I've been looking so much forward to this morning to share our visions for how to accelerate connectivity around the world. How do we make sure that everybody in the world will get connected with high-quality broadband over the next five years? What we plan to do this morning is to share the following agenda. Start out a little bit with the vision of two very complementary companies, OneWeb and Eutelsat, joining forces to create a truly unique player in the satellite world.
We'll address a little bit what market we will be jointly addressing, a high-growth, double-digit growth market of connectivity. Give you a bit of background on OneWeb. We'll skip over a very long story about Eutelsat because I believe quite a few of you already know Eutelsat. However, OneWeb, as a privately held company, you're probably curious to hear more from Neil and his CEO of where they stand today. Then we'll come back on the complementarity of the two companies. Think that's a very important part, that these two companies fit very well together at this time in space. Then we'll talk a little bit about the network on which we stand on, the Generation One and the OneWeb. Neil and Pascal will be telling you a little bit about the technology behind making all of this happen. Then we'll come back.
We might have a short bio break there, if we've been talking too long. Then we'll come back and give you a little bit on the financial background and how this all will work out, when we get into the financial numbers, and specifically also the very significant synergies that this deal represents. Then we'll round up, and we'll hopefully have a good hour or so, for Q&A. That's what we're gonna do, and, I'm gonna jump right in, and start out with our vision, for why this makes sense. This makes sense in a high-growth connectivity market expected to be around EUR 16 billion in 2030. That's a double-digit growth over the next six to seven years, and two-thirds of that growth is gonna come outside the GEO space.
There will be growth in the GEO space, and we're certainly addressing that through Eutelsat, among other things, our recent launch of the KONNECT VHTS, which will address that growth, but two-thirds of the growth will come in non-GEO space, which means that we need to play in LEO in order to be addressing two-thirds of that growth market. There, OneWeb is a truly unique asset. It's one out of only two players that's working today in the LEO space. They have the spectrum, priority spectrum. They are first mover, early mover in a market where early mover advantages are significant. It's a natural next step for Eutelsat, who already a year and a half ago took a first participation in OneWeb, with a 23% ownership. OneWeb is a unique asset and perfectly fitted for our ambitions to address the connectivity market.
Combining those two will actually create something truly unique in the market. It will be the only player that can address the connectivity market with a combination of LEO and GEO capacity. I'll come back to why that is an extremely strong value proposition, but it combines the strength of both. It combines the strength of LEO in terms of low latency and ubiquitous coverage of the world, but it combines it with the strength of GEO, which is the capacity for flexible, large amounts of capacity in a very cost-effective manner. When we ask customers, they actually want both. They want the best of both worlds, and we'll be the only one who'll be able to provide them that. On top of that, we actually also have a deal which gives investors the access to EUR 1.5 billion in synergies.
We'll come back to how it is, but it's actually a fairly robust number because we know OneWeb already. We've been part of OneWeb for the past 18 months, so we know the company. We know exactly where it is, but we can also see that it's now time to accelerate. The EUR 1.5 billion is a mix of solid revenue synergies between the two companies, accelerating OneWeb, cost synergies, and very significant CapEx synergies, which we need to start addressing now. That will give you, and we'll come back and give you the detailed financial numbers, a high-growth company. A fundamentally changed financial profile of Eutelsat with high growth, but also a very robust financial profile over the next couple of years.
That's the story we'll be spending the next couple of hours diving into, but let me start out with how these two combine and what's so unique about this combination. First of all, there's a lot of GEO graphic advantage in terms of covering the globe. We want to cover the globe and be able to address connectivity needs everywhere, and here the match between GEO and LEO is quite well-matched. LEO provides a full global coverage, which is expected for OneWeb to happen by the end of next year. There are 5 launches left. Neil will tell you much more about it, but there will be a full global coverage. Today, it's covering the northern part of our globe. LEO, as you know, has a capacity to actually focus large amounts of capacity in high-demand regions.
Very good GEO graphical match, which also falls into the value proposition to customers. GEO will provide you with, at least in the satellite space, low-cost capacity, able to actually have high fill rates on our satellites, as well as also be able to deliver very high capacities to single customers in single places. Whereas customers also want the low latency. For certain utilizations, low capacity is key, whether it's military or whether it's certain amounts of broadband uses, you actually want the low latency, and you also want coverage everywhere. That's a very complementary value proposition to our customers. Access to customers, and I think that's a key element of why this happens now, it's now that OneWeb is starting to really scale up the commercial efforts.
Here, leaning into the commercial coverage that Eutelsat has built up over the past 40+ years of service is an extremely strong thing to be able to do. Leaning into that knowledge of customers, that global coverage in order to accelerate OneWeb is very important. It also gives Eutelsat access to some new customers who actually are attracted by this combination of the two. Finally, complementary financial profile. Eutelsat has, based on our very strong legacy business in broadcasting, a solid financial cash flow, which will be able to finance the investment into the network in Gen-2 over the next couple of years. The complementarity between players is not only financial, it's across multiple business levers. Why now? Why not wait? I think that's been a question that's been asked a couple of times.
We believe that now is the right time. It's a natural next step in our journey together with OneWeb. We stepped in as a second-largest shareholder behind the Bharti Group about 18 months back. Earlier this year, we took a second step that was creating a big distribution agreement, but we see that now we really need to join forces in order to be able to move fast. We need to move fast on this market opportunity because the satellite market is at an inflection point, and we see competition moving fast. We need to be able to move fast as an integrated company. We've also seen now OneWeb actually. We've been there for 18 months, we've seen OneWeb coming through a successful launch in the business. They're starting to serve customers. Customers are using the service.
They're happy about the service. They're paying for the service, which is always a good thing. We see that OneWeb actually starts to work. That's why we feel that we know this market opportunity really well, and it's now the right time to join forces. We also need to address the synergies that we can see here. OneWeb is in the process of ramping up the organization. There's already a 500-people strong, growing organization. Combining the two organizations will allow a faster acceleration, and it will lean into those EUR 1.5 billion synergies. Synergies that will come from the commercial match, from cost synergies, and as well as CapEx synergies. I think that's the last point. It's now that the CapEx and design Gen-2 needs to take into consideration the combining of the two.
When you design Gen-2, you need to think about that peak capacity can be provided with a GEO network. On the other hand, when we renew our satellites in the GEO network, we need to take into consideration that we stand on the shoulders of a strong LEO network. For future CapEx, it makes sense to join the technical forces and do the CapEx planning together. That gives us a significant chunk of the EUR 1.5 billion comes from the CapEx synergies, where you need to be one company in order to be able to do that.
To me, this is all about speed of execution in a market where we're up against competition, who's going fast and who's changing this industry, and building on top of an early mover, in a market where early mover advantages are real in terms of spectrum rights and in terms of customer acquisition. That's why it's right to join the forces at this time in space. We'll come back to the market in the next chapter, but as you know, Eutelsat has traditionally been in two markets. It's been in the historic video market, which is in low to mid-single digit decline, and has been for a while. I think that's a discussion we've had with many of you. We've also started to address significantly the connectivity market.
Today, it's around two-thirds or 60% video, with about 1/3, 40% in the connectivity market. That's Eutelsat's numbers today. With this combining of forces, that will flip. When we look towards 2027, around 70% of our revenues will come from connectivity. Of course, based on the strong growth expected in OneWeb, but also the growth that we'll see in connectivity in the GEO space. In terms of developing our revenues, we expect that 2027 will see around a EUR 2 billion company as we speak right now, with margins that are in the same order of magnitude that we see with Eutelsat today.
There's no indication that we're not also on LEO space will come up to the same kind of EBITDA margins when we look into the mid and long-term. We'll come back to more details, both on OneWeb's early ramp up, but also on the combined numbers in a later chapter. A very strong but also very different financial profile in Eutelsat. Double-digit top-line growth and a bottom line that outgrows the top line. That's what we're looking at for the next five years. As discussed, the value of synergies playing into this quite significant element of this deal is EUR 1.5 billion in synergies, which might be a little counterintuitive given the differences in companies. A very young high-growth company combining with a historic player in the geostationary.
A lot of these synergies are real, and they're fairly robust, and we're fairly certain about them because we've been part of OneWeb for the past 18 months. We know the organization. We work together both on a technical aspect, on regulatory, and on commercial. We're fairly certain that we can actually come with this. We also see them as relatively low cost because a lot of it is avoided cost. The first important one is the revenue synergies that's linked to a fast ramp-up of OneWeb, leveraging Eutelsat's commercial reach and commercial competencies. We'll come back to the numbers, but I think we have probably around eight to 10 times more sales and commercial coverage than OneWeb has today. It's a natural then a fast-paced growth can benefit from that and those long-standing customer relationships.
We actually also see customers ask for both. When we're out there, they actually want to hear about both. They want to hear about what we can do in high-peak, high-capacity demanding sites, but they also want to hear what's the new opportunities with the constellations. We actually have customers who want both. They don't want to replace, they want both. On cost, a bit more traditional, but not traditional in a way that this is about avoided cost in terms of building up the OneWeb organization over time, whether it's in regulatory, where the team will be larger, whether it's on development on land and ground infrastructure, it will be able to actually help each other by leaning into Eutelsat's organization.
Then importantly, CapEx synergies, which I think you'll also understand much better once Pascal and Massimiliano has been through how we think about Gen-2. Gen-2, knowing that you'll be able to leverage GEO capacity for high-capacity demands, and also rationalizing the GEO fleet, knowing that you actually stand on top of a strong constellation network. Both of those actually come up to around EUR 80 million in CapEx synergies coming in from year one. Those are the synergies that will start coming in already next year. That has to do with Gen-2 starting to be built, which is why the timing is now and the timing is right. ESG is actually an important element also for both companies.
I think it's an area where I don't think we're as complementary because there we're actually 100% aligned. Both of our companies, through our main business, address the digital divide. We do it with our launch of capacity in the connectivity space with the KONNECT VHTS, which we cover in Europe and Africa, and covering quite a lot of the white zones or blank spaces on the map in terms of digital divide. OneWeb, you will see that later, is right now addressing unconnected communities in Alaska and Canada. Very much about bridging the digital divide. It's core to our business. It's core to bringing equality into the world.
The other part, which is also important, and those of you who follow discussions about space debris and sustainable space, will also know that that's an area where Eutelsat and OneWeb together can take a very strong stance. GEO companies have been in this for quite some time, but the bigger issues when you look forward in terms of sustainable space definitely is created by the constellations in low orbit. Addressing sustainable environment in space and on the ground is super important. With that, I think you're all curious to hear a little bit about the market we're addressing, the market opportunity will. Jean-Hubert, our head of strategy and M&A, will take you through a little bit about the market we're addressing, and then Neil will come and tell you more about OneWeb. Over to you, Jean-Hubert.
Thank you, Eva. Indeed, a few words about the market. You said it earlier, Eva. We see the market, the connectivity market really at an inflection point with a massive growth opportunity ahead of us. It's important to understand why. This is, I think, the first question. There are really four major changes happening at the same time in our market. First, starting on the left, you see that with HTS, high-throughput satellite, and very high-throughput satellite, plus the connectivity added by LEO constellations. We'll be able to respond to demanding use cases in terms of bandwidth, like bridging the digital divide over a country like Germany, or delivering massive capacity to several cruise ships in the same area at the same time, things that we cannot do today.
In addition, that also means that distributors that were so far neglecting satellite because of lack of scale, or that were using it as last resort, and that includes large telcos, are now clearly adopting it. Sorry. The second point on the right is that we can deliver that capacity at dramatically reduced costs. For instance, OneWeb Gen-2 will be five times more capacity effective than OneWeb Gen-1. The costs that we see are nearing terrestrial connectivity. I think this is very important. Maybe not matching, but nearing. That means that price will no longer be a barrier to adoption for satellite. The third element, of course, latency. Latency below 100 ms mean that satellite connectivity can now be seamlessly integrated within enterprise IT and telecom networks like any other access technology. This is a major step versus today.
The fourth element, this is about the terminals. The cost, the design, and very importantly, the ease of installation of those terminals, is really a step change versus today. Meaning that this is, again, a massive simplification. Now, when you add those four elements together, you see that barriers to adoption in satellite connectivity that still exist today very much will be rapidly removed. When you add to that government policies that will encourage strongly the use of connectivity for everyone, including universal service obligation, that really will drive market expansion at a very high rate versus today. This is what you see, in fact, on this slide in numbers. You see that we've used Euroconsult as a reference. We do our own studies very much in detail, but we used an external source here.
Euroconsult, as a matter of fact, is conservative versus many other estimates that you can see in appendix. We took that one precisely because it's conservative. What you see here on the left, the total market is expected to more than triple over the decade to $15 billion. This is a 14% CAGR growth. On the right, you see that NGSO, non-geostationary, and within that critically LEO, will take half of it. We'll capture more than the fair share of the market growth to reach roughly half of the market, total market by the end of the decade. This is at a growth of 37% CAGR, 37. I would like to add that GEO will as well grow, not at the same pace, obviously, but at 7%, which is quite good. Why is that?
Simply because GEO will as well benefit from further changes I mentioned earlier. In fact, you'll hear later from Eva and Neil many cases where customers are wanting GEO and LEO. GEO will benefit from the growth and the new phase of growth as well in the market. Now, specifically looking at verticals, where will the growth come from? The opportunity really spans across all verticals with four pillars of roughly the same size, and everywhere, double-digit growth, as you can see. In fixed data to start there, which comprises backhaul, cellular backhaul and enterprise, the growth will be driven by cellular network expansions driven by stringent regulatory requirements, and of course, the deployment of 4G, 5G and beyond other generation of cellular.
Just to give a number here, we expect that the number of backhaul sites will move from 43,000 in 2000 to roughly 70,000 in 2030. The provisioning per site will roughly be multiplied by three or four. It's around 5-6 Mb today and will be more than 20 Mb in 2030. In the government segment, the combination of budget increases and the fact that many applications that are pretty bandwidth-hungry, including drones, communication on the moves, military aircrafts, will actually drive a significant growth. In this segment, satellite remains and will remain preferred over terrestrial in many instances. In mobility, the growth is really driven by a combination of multiplying factors. Take aero. It's really the combination of growth of global fleet plus 3% CAGR.
The penetration of in-flight connectivity within that fleet, it's only 35% roughly today, so significant growth potential here. Of course, the growth in usage per plane, typically in business jet aviation, and this is not from studies, this is from customers. Maybe Neil will talk about it later. We think that, growth per year and per plane will be multiplied by five over the next five years. Similarly, in maritime, you have the same effects, and in addition, you see connectivity treated like a profit center in certain segments like cruise. Again, in cruise, we hear directly from our end customers that the, increase of provisioning per vessel will be significant. So they are wanting to have 200 Gbps per large vessel today to 1 Tb per vessel, in fact, as soon as possible.
Finally, in consumer, the growth will be driven by the fundamental need for internet for everyone, by universal service obligation, and again, the increased convenience and affordability of the service. Again, many see a higher, sometimes much higher potential than we see here in those numbers, and this is the case both for B2B, which is 70% of the market opportunity according to Euroconsult, but as well the case for B2C. Lastly, a very important message is that the growth will not stop in 2030. The growth potential goes well beyond that. It's really the combination of two elements. One is the growth in current usages, and one is future usages. Let me first take current usages. We will be far from saturation in 2030. Three examples of that. Cellular backhauling.
A third of cellular sites will still be in 2G and 3G. Of course, waiting to be shifted to 4G and beyond. When you know that 2G and 3G sites consume roughly between 1 and 4 Mb per site, while 4G consume between eight and 10, and this will be beyond for 5G, you see the multiplication potential. Another example is commercial aircraft, where again, up to 40% of the fleet will not be equipped with in-flight connectivity by that time. The last example is consumer broadband. You see that we estimate that, penetration will be at 0.5% of the global market.
We've shown that at length, when we do think that the total potential is at least 1%-2%, which is, if I take the midpoint, three times more in that segment. Second, when you take the new usages, many new usages across those segments, some of course that we'll have to see as we go, and some that are already in infancy and that we understand. Two examples again, route optimization in mobility, route optimization for planes, for vessels, in particular to optimize routes real-time and to optimize energy consumption. This is very important as anyone can understand, and this will consume massive real-time data. That's one driver. Another element, of course, is land connectivity, land mobility. We'll have more connected cars.
Those connected cars will drive automatically, not thanks to satellite, by the way, but occupants will need to be occupied with entertainment, and those cars will need to be maintained. On the connected car market, there will be as well significant growth going forward. Net, if I summarize this market section, we are really at the eve of a massive market growth. It's driven by factors and evolutions in our market that are identified, that are certain. The growth is expected well beyond 2030 through to 2040 and beyond. The growth, as you have seen, it concerns both GEO and LEO, but will be particular dynamic in LEO. In LEO, you have today two players, Eutelsat and Starlink. Maybe one more coming later, maybe two more, but LEO scales.
I now pass on to Neil to explain precisely why OneWeb is a unique asset to help Eutelsat capture the growth.
Appreciate it. Good morning, everybody. The combination of OneWeb and Eutelsat creates a compelling proposition for customers and a strong value creation story for investors. I've led OneWeb since November 2020, and I spend a lot of time with customers around the world. I know the impact and also the value that OneWeb is already making to customers, whether they be civilian or indeed governmental. The combination of OneWeb and Eutelsat is underpinned by strong strategic and industrial logic, and is well-placed to address a significant growth opportunity, which you just heard Jean-Hubert outline. Now, as a privately held company, we've been very, very focused on execution.
I'm very happy today to be able to share more about the progress we've made to date, the commercial opportunity we have in front of us, and also why LEO and GEO combination is such a compelling proposition for customers. OneWeb has unique assets, speed to market, and a track record of execution. There are only two commercially available LEO broadband constellations in the world. OneWeb is one of them. Over the years, we have deployed $4.5 billion of CapEx, and this has enabled us to deploy two-thirds of our constellation, develop a global network of ground stations, and secure spectrum priority rights, which is something I will come back to later.
Very importantly, we have built a highly skilled organization, attracting hard-to-find industry expertise to our mission. Of course, if you're going to build a global constellation, it's extremely helpful that we have secured the support of some highly influential global stakeholders. Our network is expected to deliver global coverage with 648 satellites, with 1.1 Tb of sellable capacity by the end of next year. Importantly, fewer satellites equals less CapEx. Our low latency capacity, which is 84% focused on land, is targeted at fast growth markets. The network is live. We are serving customers and generating revenues. What we are also now seeing is a rapid acceleration in network usage from our first customers. Our deal pipeline stands at $2.7 billion, and we have more than 150 customer trials underway.
To summarize, OneWeb has unique assets, speed to market, and a strong track record of execution. Combining this with Eutelsat's scale and reach has clear benefits for both companies, but particularly for our customers. OneWeb has priority rights over spectrum. The network is designed to use Ka-band to connect from the satellite to the ground network, and then Ku-band to connect to the user. We have the highest priority in Ku-band globally. This is really important because it means every other operator needs to coordinate with OneWeb to avoid interference. Critically, since Ku-band connects every user terminal, any coordination becomes highly complex. Remember that we are one of only two LEO broadband networks in operation, and spectrum rights is on a first come, first served basis. What does this mean in practice? With lowest spectrum priority, the operator has to shut down satellites interfering with us.
It means they require more satellites to provide continuous coverage, meaning greater complexity and operational complexity. In the U.S., we have a spectrum coordination plan with Starlink to enable our current and future constellations to coexist. OneWeb's priority spectrum requires new entrants to coordinate with us, making them operationally more complex and much more capital-intensive. OneWeb has early mover advantage. We expect to deliver global coverage by the end of next year. Our approach to executing on this strategy is to progressively turn on coverage across the world's continents, oceans, and airspace. We already operate the second-largest constellation in the world, with 428 satellites currently in LEO orbit, which is about two-thirds of our constellation. We are serving customers from the North Pole to 50 degrees north. That's roughly the U.S.-Canadian border to the North Pole.
Two more launches are required to cover 25 degrees north and south, and we are on track to complete both of those by mid-December. All remaining launches are contracted, and critically, all the satellites are already manufactured. Within six months, we expect to complete the constellation deployment, and in 15 months, global commercial coverage. We are confident in this plan as we've built an organization that has demonstrated a culture of resilience and rapid execution. Since November 2020, in the midst of the global pandemic, and also through one or two GEO political issues, we have constructed and deployed two-thirds of the constellation. We've built the operational infrastructure, the ground network, fleet management, operating systems, and importantly, the organization to manage it. We've secured funding to complete the Gen-1 network, raising $2.7 billion and attracting global strategic shareholders.
We've also transitioned the business from a technology project to a commercial enterprise as we've started to serve customers across multiple markets and geographies. We have built a channel distribution network of 44 partners in strategic markets and geographies. In just 20 months, we've built an organization with a strong culture of rapid execution. Our Gen-1 network is live, and we are almost there to complete the global constellation. Just five more launches, all of which are contracted and two which are on track for completion by mid-December. All the satellites have been manufactured. Equipment for all our ground stations has been ordered. 13 are fully completed, and we expect to have 26 completed within the next six months. 44 distribution partners have been signed up, most of whom are leaders in the segment in the geographies they operate in.
Gen-1 is live, fully funded, and close to completion. Now importantly, we are not undertaking this endeavor alone. OneWeb has made a strategic choice to build a network with established industry partners, also turning many of them into customers. We now have three launch providers, and you will see further announcements on additional providers in the coming weeks and months. We have options on approximately 90% of our launch requirement for Gen-2. On satellites, we have manufactured 100% of those required for Gen-1, and our management team sit on the board of the manufacturer, a joint venture with Airbus. Similarly, on network and user terminals, we have diversity of supply, and we are working with the industry to meet multiple use cases. Massimiliano Ladovaz will cover this in more detail later. Our technology is underpinned by industry leaders.
Many of those industry leaders are now our customers, relying on their own technology and ours to serve their customers. Spend some time on our target markets, the go-to-market strategy, and also the extensive and high-value distribution network we have built. Our proposition is simple. We're here to help our partners serve their customers. We are not seeking to disintermediate them or take all the margins from the market. Our distribution partners are on the ground day by day, serving their customers, having built relationships over a long period of time. They have a deep understanding of their end markets. This not only enhances our reach into the market, but it also gives a very valuable feedback loop. We believe this will drive rapid adoption and market penetration, and more importantly, profitably expand our business.
In total, we have signed 44 distribution partners in 20 months, some examples of which you will see on this exhibit. We have deliberately targeted specific distributors to maximize market and geographical coverage. For enterprise, you can see some of the leading names here, like an AT&T, Airtel, and Orange. For government, we deal directly with governments, but also with distributors whose role it is to blend services for specific government applications and use cases. We also acquired a specific entity to enable us to do business with the US Department of Defense. This is called OneWeb Technologies. In aviation and maritime, we have signed partnership agreements with leading market participants who cover the majority of their respective markets. We have built a formidable expert distribution channel.
These distributors are on the ground with customers every day, and we benefit from their unique market access and knowledge, which will be very hard to replicate. OneWeb is a live network with live customers. Alaska, the largest state in the United States, and one of the most poorly connected, is the market we started in. To drill down on how we go to market, we have a ground station here, five local distribution partners, and a regional office to help us unlock demand. The demand is considerable, as there is little or no viable alternatives for reliable connectivity. Today, we have deployed more than 70 sites to support local services, businesses, mines, and schools. Now remember, our model is one to many, not one to one. One site can serve an entire village of 400 people, a whole mine or a hospital.
We expect the pace of penetration to continue, working in partnership with our local distribution partners. In this remote and challenging environment, we have learned a lot and proven OneWeb's ability to unlock the opportunity in these kinds of locations. We think it's a great proof point for other parts of the world, and it's also enabled us to grow our operational chops supporting communities day by day. We have a strong demand where we have coverage, and we are building demand ahead of where we have live coverage. The way we showcase this new technology is by show and tell, supporting customer trials, and we have over 150 customer trials installed, conducted by 27 distribution partners. Now, these customer trials are invariably interconnected into the network of the distribution partner.
The number of trials has increased 50% since June, and this allows us to build out and qualify our pipeline. We can see the effectiveness of the trials as usage of the network has grown five times since April. Let me give you a quote from a customer, actually it's a customer of Hughes, at an Air Force base in Greenland. "The testing has demonstrated the ability of emerging LEO networks to dramatically improve communications to areas that have traditionally been extremely difficult to serve.
The residents at Thule," this is the Air Force base where it's installed, "have been thrilled with both the stability and performance of the network, as they've used it to connect with family, friends, and colleagues around the world." We have quickly built a significant pipeline, which stands today at $2.7 billion, of which $600 million represents signed orders. This $600 million is equivalent to around 7% of our sellable capacity. To give some sense of depth, on a risk-adjusted basis, we assess this to be about $1.9 billion. The pipeline is balanced geographically, showing strong demand around the world outside the areas we're already operational. We see strong demand across the use cases, with distributors wanting to sell across multiple verticals, laying the foundation for cross-sell and upsell down the road.
You will also note that government, which in this context means military government, at this point, is a relatively small part of our pipeline. While we expect this to grow significantly, the timing is uncertain, which is why it has a low representation in the risk-adjusted pipeline. Finally, you'll see the pipeline is also disproportionately weighted to long-term deals, something we actively encourage. It means our revenue will become highly predictable as we proceed with the rollout of the network. Now these slides have been put together over the last few days, and since these slides have been put together, we've closed an additional $70-$80 million of this pipeline. So we're now touching $700 million. It's a very dynamic situation. We're very focused on deal and pipeline conversion at this point.
Now, LEO and GEO is not simply complementary to each other, but they are multiplied together because they expand the use cases and markets that we can serve and target. From a competitive standpoint, Starlink is the only other commercial LEO broadband constellation. While two others are postulated, they are not expected to materialize until late this decade, if at all. Starlink has historically been focused on the B2C market, although there's evidence that they are following us into the B2B markets. While the technology really is very similar, they require many more satellites which have a shorter lifespan, which means they are much more capital intensive. Additionally, they subsidize every terminal, so they have a very high customer acquisition cost. We, in contrast, make money from every customer we onboard.
From a product standpoint, we sell products with committed information rates underpinned by SLAs, and we believe this is a requirement for the majority of the B2B market. Starlink is best efforts only. Now MEO falls between two stools in that they don't have the low latency of a LEO or the focused throughput of a LEO. Additionally, their ground equipment is very expensive and bulky to install, and we have a lot of market intelligence on that from shareholders around the world. That said, the competition is very strong, and this is why we believe that the LEO-GEO combination is highly differentiated. GEO brings the benefit of resiliency and the ability to focus much more capacity on high density areas. LEO brings the benefits of low latency and ubiquitous coverage. Together, a LEO-GEO combination is very powerful.
The combination is not just complementary, but it's a multiplier, enhancing the market opportunity and unlocking use cases that a LEO or a GEO network could not individually achieve. Now in summary, we do not believe this is a winner takes all market. We do believe, however, that there will be a limited number of winners. From a market perspective, first of all, it's a really big market, as Jean-Hubert outlined, and it's growing quickly with significant cash pools, which means it will undoubtedly attract and is attracting multiple players. However, customers really want choice. I hear this from customers all the time. They really want choice from their providers. All customers, but particularly military, have a requirement for resiliency and redundancy. This means it is not an option to them, but a requirement.
It is a requirement to have alternate service providers. Finally, in this business of all businesses I've been in, LEO politics really, really matter. A single winner is simply not acceptable in many parts of the world. At the end of the day, it is the governments that decide which markets you play in because it's a heavily regulated market, and you can see this happening already. That said, there are significant barriers for new entrants. As I mentioned, spectrum really matters. Spectrum really matters. As I mentioned before, they're not making any more of it, which means then given that we have priority, it means everybody else has to operate around us. Speed to market is also very important. It takes four- to five years to design, develop, and deploy a LEO constellation, and that is going very quickly indeed.
Setting aside the capital requirement, there are real limitations in the market on launch capacity, and there's also limitations on satellite manufacturing capacity. To exploit a global constellation, you need access to as many of these markets as possible. Acquiring landing rights and market access is a time-consuming exercise. It is a governmental exercise. It takes years. OneWeb currently has market access in 57 countries. Last but not least is the availability of skill and talent. This industry, in some ways, is different from many other tech industries in that the technology and the skills required to exploit that technology are heavily bespoke. There's a very limited number of people who can design, build, and operate these constellations. In summary, we have a great asset that is live and generating revenues. We have exhibited velocity, and we've proven our execution capabilities.
We continue to win customer trust and build on our deal pipeline, currently standing at $2.7 billion, and as I mentioned before, we're converting that quite quickly. We will become the only LEO-GEO operator in the world, a proposition which is not additive, but a multiplier in nature because you can simply serve more use cases. With that, I welcome back Eva to the stage.
Thank you, Neil. What a whirlwind tour through OneWeb and LEO constellations. We're gonna try together to underpin with some facts and some of our best knowledge of how this one plus one makes three and what's the strength and complementarity between the two companies.
First of all, I think that's, we touched upon it, this is the natural next step for Eutelsat within the connectivity world. We started our strategy of the telecom pivot focusing on building a strong second leg in connectivity a few years back, and that's followed with initial investment in OneWeb now 18 months back. Built it out with a distribution partnership and some joint work on both tech and regulatory workstreams over those 18 months. This is a perfectly natural step of saying we now know this asset really well, we know where OneWeb is going. You've just heard the story about how far OneWeb has gone over the last 18 months, and now is the right time to move on. This is the right window of opportunity. We highlighted earlier that OneWeb needs to accelerate the commercial ramp-up.
Now we're live in 50 degrees north, but in very short time this will be a global coverage, and going from Canada, Alaska to full global coverage and ramping that up fast needs to happen with a lot of speed, a lot of agility, but it also takes more people. It takes more people to cover the globe. It takes more people to talk to all these customers in the individual, verticals, and that's something we need to do together. We see actually customers asking for both, so why do we need to come with both teams when we can do it together? We also need to minimize the risk of implementation, in doing this in terms of both OPEX and CapEx, and the timing is right for thinking this into the CapEx, game. The timing is right to do this together.
What the customer is saying, let me start, and Neil maybe you'll complement me after, but customers want both. They want the coverage. They want the global coverage. They don't want to know when the GEO satellite is not providing enough download because you get too north, but they also want a lot of capacity. When you talk to a cruise ship, when you talk to a military camp, they want to be able to serve everybody also in the peak times. They want resilience. Military guys wants backup. They want resilience. They want to make sure that it's always available, and they want it easy. They want a one-stop shop to fit it all. Then, of course, they want it at the lowest cost available, and right now the lowest cost available is the combination of the two.
What are you hearing when you travel out there?
Yeah, I mean, just a couple of points to build upon there. First of all, you know, as Eva sort of telegraphed earlier on in her presentation, you know, Eutelsat has a go-to-market organization around 200-250 people. We have a go-to-market organization of around 30 people, right? There's a simple scale play here which we can take advantage of, as we access these, you know, we can get to market much more quickly. Importantly, anybody who has run a B2B business knows it's not just a question of having a salesperson, it's a question of how rapidly they can get up to speed in selling those markets. Generally speaking, six months, right? In this industry it's intense because it's quite a technical sell.
You really need people who actually understand the market, and the fact that Eutelsat has a whole load of them and I don't, seems to me to be an obvious benefit, and we're already seeing the benefit of that. You know, the Eutelsat sales team at conferences are already speaking on our behalf. I know. So we're delighted to see that. I think also. I mean, it's common sense as well. There is a duplication in key functions. Also, as we go down the road, OneWeb just does not have to build these functions out to the degree that we would have done on our own.
I think the final point I'd make is, and I'll be quite delicate in how I put this. You know, when I started in OneWeb, we were very much price takers from our vendors. We were price takers combined, and we've already seen some Eutelsat as a shareholder has been very helpful in helping us with some of our vendors. We feel very confident in not only having a much stronger voice with some of our vendors, but being able to negotiate much better contracts with them as we go forward. I just want to return to the first point.
Every customer that I have spoken to, and I've spoken to almost all our customers since we announced this merger, are delighted in this merger because it makes a lot of sense for them and enables them to serve their customers better in a much more compelling way. In that includes distributors who may be working with other LEO companies around the world. They are delighted about this. They want this to happen as quickly as possible.
What they're saying is, "Tell us how you're going to build LEO and GEO together. How is that going to come into one seamless product for me? Today I could just buy some capacity here and buy some capacity here and, you know, sometimes when one works I'll switch to the other one. But how do we build this into a seamless integrated product?" That takes a little bit of time, and Pascal and Massi will come back to it, because today it's clear that we can co-sell, cross-sell the product, and we'll start doing that. We've started doing that already and now going out in the world. But we also want it to be built into the same antenna, the same modem.
That's something where, at least, when I discuss, and probably also you with our suppliers of terminals and antennas, we say, "Guys, start thinking about this. This is what we want to do." They're starting to think of that together with us. We can move fast-forward to a, what you call smart routing, so you can send one or the other one when network works. But we do want to move into one antenna, and one modem over the next three to five years. How fast that can go will of course depend both on, our vendors and technology, but we are already starting to experiment with it in some areas. Some of the proof of concepts are coming up.
Now it will take a bit of time for the proof of concepts to be into cost-effective products, but we are starting to do that and we can see that service coming in over the next two-three years. That's why we need to be one technical organization to get this focus.
I'll just add, you know, commercial integration obviously is going to take place quickly and already is. Full technical integration will take longer. What I would say, though, is that the user terminal manufacturers out there, they have a very strong vested interest in making sure they get to these combined terminals very quickly, not least because the other players out there, generally speaking, are vertically integrated. So we are the market for combined LEO-GEO antennas. So that is why, you know, we've been actually we've been testing prototypes already. That we will be pushing extremely hard to get into production as quickly as possible.
Which customers are actually looking at this? These are some of the verticals and some of the use cases. Jean-Hubert Lenotte talked about how that adds up in the total market. Let us talk a little bit to what we are actually seeing. Across customers, we see a lot of these use cases, and I think if I dive into a few of them, in the maritime with different value propositions. Sometimes it's about lowest cost, sometimes it's about resilience, sometimes it's very much linked to throughput and flexibility of throughput. All of them have elements where we can address it very strongly. We see right now a very strong demand in maritime. Maritime has a big need for the ubiquitous coverage. Obviously, they wanna be able to be connected the whole time.
Also, especially when you talk about the cruise part of the maritime segment, big amounts of capacity. The times where cruise lines could attract people because they were disconnected from the world, is gone. Now people expect to be able to watch their favorite Netflix series, even if they're on a cruise ship. They want big amounts of capacity. Some of the same thing is true with government. When they have a military camp and they have a lot of soldiers, they need to connect them. A lot of these people are saying today, "We simply can't recruit people if we don't give them connectivity. We cannot get people neither in the military nor else, if we don't give them some element of connectivity.
Mm.
Connectivity becomes important, and that also means that connectivity in dense, densified areas like a military camp or like a cruise ship is very important. You have other uses like the backhaul, which is somewhat more cost sensitive, where it'll be more of a cost case with some of the telecoms. What are you hearing?
Yeah, let me pick on two here, right? Aviation is something that we all of us understand because all of us fly in airplanes and all of us are condemned to the absolutely lousy connectivity that we all experience, whether we're flying across Atlantic or in Europe, et cetera. The point about aviation is you think about an airplane. The cockpit of an airplane is almost always gonna be a GEO plane. It's kind of mandated by safety features and so on and so forth. The back of the airplane or whichever compartment of the airplane you actually fly in, all that is gonna be basically LEO going forward. Right. Think about it, safety, all that kind of stuff is gonna be GEO mandated.
The back of the plane, all about making life better and having a better customer experience, is gonna be LEO. That is why LEO and GEO makes such obvious sense, right? That is it. In one proposition, an airplane, it makes extremely clear. Now, government, oddly enough, is in some ways the similar outcome, but for different reasons. Governments have spent, and I'm talking about military government here, vast amounts of money on connectivity already. They have an enormous amount of infrastructure already deployed. They are not gonna throw away that infrastructure overnight, but they desperately need LEO connectivity. What is the point of spending $ billions on an aircraft carrier if you can't see over the horizon? Right.
This is why particularly the, you know, many militaries around the world are very, very focused on deploying LEO connectivity as fast as possible. Today, the biggest militaries around the world, they buy connectivity from everybody. They buy connectivity from every GEO satellite provider. They will buy connectivity from every LEO satellite provider, and they have told me that is the case. Over to you.
Yes. We have a few pages. I'll not dive into all of them in detail, but giving you a little bit of the feeling for what's the feedback we're getting today when we start talking to customers, because that's what we've been doing for the last couple of months, starting talking to some of the maritime customers. Maritime, both in cruise and in commercial maritime, is extremely demanding. You've even seen shareholders stepping into Eutelsat with that background because they really want to explore this area more. It can be for autonomous vessels, but definitely in the cruise market, we see right now quite an intense requirement. I think, Neil, you talked a little bit about aviation. We also had a test recently in aviation, another area where we see.
Yeah
Customers wanting both.
Yeah, we've actually tested on a triple seven. It's actually on, I think, on our website. It's a public announcement. We've tested our connectivity on a triple seven. Massimiliano Ladovaz can double-click on it a little bit later on. We had really good results. We are working very hard to productionize that as rapidly as we can. In the business jet aviation market, we're working with two partners there. We're working specifically with them on user terminals which fit in the tail fin of a business jet. And obviously the smaller the terminal, the bigger the market. We expect, and also that has direct read-through directly into military markets.
Yeah. Military and government is an important market. As you know, it's something that all commercial satellite players are playing, and U.S. DOD as well as European militaries are very interested in this, especially because of the opportunities of low latency. In military, those 500 ms actually make a big difference when you talk about a weapon. Maybe a little bit less when it talks about providing connectivity in camps to people. But it is clearly a very hot market right now also in the military. I think there we have a little bit of the help from the Russian-Ukrainian crisis talking about LEO politics.
Yeah
really getting something like the satellite capacity. It's well-positioned within their arsenal of things.
Yeah. Just to add on that point, obviously, for the military, secure comms is absolutely paramount. They layer that. We have very strong encryption on our network, but they want to put their own encryption over and above that. You can't really run encryption over a GEO network. You need low latency 'cause it puts a tax on the network, and it breaks the encryption, the encryption protocols. Low latency will become incredibly important for encrypted comms for the military as we go forward, as well the resiliency of the networks, because it's very hard to jam a LEO network.
We have another three cases, but I thought we'd actually wanna move to hearing from the engineers themselves.
Yeah.
As the space got to be every engineer's dream and understanding how the network works and also how we will build the next generation is key. I'll leave it to Pascal and Massi for the technical part.
You guys are driving. Okay.
Thanks, Eva and Neil. Hello, everyone. You know Eutelsat well, I think for years. You know our 36 satellite fleet, the service we provide to the market, and our extensive ground network. You certainly heard about the recent launch of our KONNECT VHTS satellite early September, which will bring a massive 500 Gbps Ka capacity over Europe and the Middle East next year, obviously. And the soon-to-be-launched multi-mission 10B satellite, which will bring additional capacity for connectivity in Ku-band over the same region. You may be less familiar with LEO constellations. Let me hand over the floor to Massimiliano, who will present to you what the first generation of OneWeb is all about. One of the two LEO broadband constellations already in service so that you feel more comfortable with LEO concepts.
We'll show you a very short movie explaining how LEO Gen-1 operates before we start talking about the much more powerful second generation which will come in a few years. Massimiliano, up to you.
Thank you, Pascal, and good morning, everyone. I'm really happy to share with you the details of our Gen-1 constellation and the future Gen-2 constellation. Before I talk about the specifics of our technology, I would like to share with you a brief video to show you how OneWeb's LEO system currently works. It's already live and delivering the service. Let's get to the first challenge and see if the video works. Sound.
The following animation shows components of the OneWeb system design. geostationary satellites that operate at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers, the OneWeb system operates at 1,200 kilometers, resulting in significantly lower latency and better system performance. Our system will provide full global coverage, which is shown here. The gateways are shown here in red. The teardrops moving around illustrate the OneWeb satellites in orbit, which will communicate with the gateway infrastructure for connection to the Internet. End users will connect to the satellites via OneWeb user terminals. As satellites pass over users, the terminals represented here by a white dot will hand off connections between beams and then to the next approaching satellite. The resulting connection and connectivity will provide high speed access as shown in the download simulation here.
Here we are. The video works. I'm going to start by introducing Gen-1, some of the key features of the network and how our user experience proven performance. Gen-1 is an innovative LEO constellation. It's currently deployed and connecting the customers now. Gen-1 is built on a robust 4G core network, which we develop with industry leaders like Qualcomm and Hughes. Our satellite are expected to have a lifespan of more than seven years. This makes our Gen-1 system highly economical and compares better to other LEO broadband constellations. Our satellite failure rate is below 1%, which is one of the best in the industry, including Starlink, the only other LEO broadband constellation in orbit. Obviously, the more satellite fail, the more you must replace them, and clearly, there is a cost impact here.
Just as an example of the strength of this design, a variant of this satellite has been selected by the US Department of Defense. Our constellation has higher look angles. This means better line of sight and more geographical coverage and access to customers in more locations. This is quite an important feature of Gen-1. As the CTO of the company, I could talk a lot about the technology, but the customer doesn't care about how shiny the satellite, how shiny is the network. What matters is what is the customer experience. The constellation is effectively a 4G LTE network, but delivered from space, so it can reach where there is limited connectivity or no economically viable alternatives. Its resilience and low latency supports application like Teams calls, seamless internet browsing, corporate network extension, and streaming.
Gen-1 is actually delivering an equivalent performance to Starlink, reaching download speeds of up to 195 Mbps on the upload and 32 Mbps on the download. However, differently to Starlink and together with our distribution partners, we provide a fully managed service, which means that we can guarantee the quality of service contractually. Again, this is quite important. In summary, this is the takeaway. This constellation operates like a 4G LTE network but delivers from space. It provides a robust and committed service, not just best effort. It and we have built it with longer lifetime, fewer satellite and lower failure rate. This makes it CapEx efficient. As Neil said, OneWeb is no longer a technology project. It is live and serving customer today. We have completed our first phase of deployment.
We are serving customers about 50 degrees north. We are doing this in locations where our customers are being deprived of basic connectivity needs thus far, and it is unlikely that this area will be connected by fiber in the near future. Let me bring you some examples. We are successfully delivering community Wi-Fi. We are providing connectivity for mine sites and business continuity services, among others. We are deploying in remote locations like Alaska, Canada and Greenland. While we are launching more satellites, we are also looking ahead, ready for much wider array of use cases that will go live in the following months. Firstly, let me give you some examples of real-life applications of OneWeb. On land, we have demonstrated the ability of Gen One to support land mobility use cases.
Together with UK Space Agency and European Space Agency, we are connected a car to a LEO and to a GEO simultaneously on the same antenna and demonstrated the system can also do backhauling of 5G. I think we were the first doing that. This comms on the move use cases is highly suited for government or emergency service and expect to be ready by Q1 next year. There is also significant opportunity in providing seaborne connectivity. We have conducted successful trials, providing seamless connectivity for video calling, streaming and gaming to support leisure and commercial shipping. Our user terminal installations are expected to start early next year to support maritime use cases. Again, here we will provide LEO, GEO, connectivity on ships. Finally, as Neil said at...
said before, we were the first in the industry to demonstrate the use of flat panels on a large Boeing 777. We have delivered over 260 Mbps of low latency connectivity to a cruising aircraft. This installation is expected to start in the second half of next year to support airborne connectivity. Those antennas, we will have two variants, one LEO only, and the second one LEO-GEO, starting in the second quarter of next year. We have covered the constellation and the way users are connected to it, but another key element of the network are the user terminals. The user terminals are critically important. These are the devices in the hands of our customers. Customer requirements vary per use case and segment. They require different types of power, weight, size and performance.
Therefore, we are building a wide portfolio user terminal to suit connectivity demands of our customers. This slide shows you the roadmap, as you see. Between now and the end of next financial year, we expect to have more than 12 different types of user terminals for our customers to choose from. As part of this strategy, we have built a diversified pool of vendors to respond to customer demands and build resilience into a critical network component. We think that many is better than one because customer wants choice. I will now change direction and look forward to Gen-2, its key feature and the revenue potential it will unlock. OneWeb has learned a lot from operating Gen One constellation, Gen-2 builds on that. This quite important element of Gen-2.
OneWeb is Gen-2 to be modular and adaptive. What does that Gen-2 satellite and network will continuously evolve and adapt over time to constantly follow the evolution of the market demand. This means that we can add capacity, functionality and features at a much lower capital cost. To put it another way, we won't need Gen-3 or Gen-4 by design will open up a new range of markets and revenue opportunities for us. One, it will include features like optical satellite links, which reduce the capital cost to fewer ground stations and satellites and higher network utilization. It will improve performance and increase our addressable markets. Two, by design, it will be backed by much smaller user terminals and terminals compatible with GEO. Again, opening up new revenue opportunities for us.
smaller the terminals, as Neil said, the more you open market opportunities. Three, again, this is important, it will go beyond just connectivity. If we further open new markets, such as delivering position, navigation and timing. Such capability is extremely important to governments for critical infrastructure resilience. This is just one of the examples of the additional payload that we'll embark on Gen-2. Finally, as Eva and Neil mentioned earlier, LEO GEO is gonna be a game changer. Naturally, Gen-2 will be fully compatible with GEO technology, increasing resilience, flexibility and availability, and expand the available option to our customers. In summary, Gen-2 builds on all our Gen-1 experience. It makes delivering connectivity cheaper and gives higher performance to customers. It enables us to deliver more use cases and expand the market opportunities.
Now, Pascal, what are your views on Gen-2?
Thanks, Massimiliano. Let's continue on the Gen-2 benefits. Gen-2 will have a much higher capacity than the first generation, estimated at about five times the capacity of Gen-1. It will have native LEO GEO compatibility in the space and in the ground segments, as well as for user terminals. Thanks to its more powerful satellites capacity, users will benefit from higher performance services. The satellites will have a life expectancy of about ten years, longer than the Gen-1 present lifetime, leading to an evolving system where we will upgrade the future renewal satellites with additional features and insert them into the orbital planes or add more satellites if capacity increase is needed, thus avoiding a disruption of generations. Finally, the innovative design should lead us to a lower sellable capacity cost per gigabit per second.
Eva said it earlier, customers want the best of both worlds, so they want the benefit from low latency enabled by LEO constellations, thanks to their proximity to the Earth, and they want also the benefits of GEO satellites with very high capacity concentrated on local LEO graphies and low sellable capacity cost per gigabit per second. The reality of the demand is made of high volumes of connectivity needs concentrated in specific geographical areas. For example, maritime ports, airports, maritime and aero flight routes, but also business city centers. LEO constellations can accommodate local demand peaks, but at the cost of deploying significant capacity around the globe. Conversely, GEO satellites enable to target capacity over high demand areas. By the way, a great part of the internet traffic is coming from video, which does not require low latency and is unidirectional.
Combining both LEO and GEO will definitely help us optimize the production tool, enabling higher fill rates. Building LEO constellations is not straightforward. If we were to start from a blank page, we would not be able to benefit from all the investments already made by OneWeb in Gen-1. Let's look at it from a Eutelsat investor perspective. First, the reuse of Gen-1 infrastructure for what concerns the relevant part of the systems and the ground segment should represent about $500 million-$600 million in cost avoidance. Second, Eutelsat will benefit from all the know-how developed by OneWeb over the design and deployment of Gen-1.
Such know-how over multiple years, in addition to the expertise that we will bring with the Eutelsat team, is estimated at about $600 million-$700 million worth of knowledge and experience in LEO constellations. Last but not least, we will obviously benefit from the brought into use Ku and Ka frequency filings, which rank high in terms of priority, meaning that the other constellations with lower priority filings will have to coordinate with us and not the other way around. This is estimated to have a value of about $400 million-$500 million, according to external studies. In summary, the estimated saving is between $1.5 billion-$1.8 billion compared to a new entrant. Gen-2 is de facto derisked, and it secures the customer base of Gen-1.
As a final note, let me recap the four key messages we have for you today. First, Gen-1 is a proven technology already serving customers. Second, Gen-1 experience and combination with LEO will bring strong cost advantage. Third, Gen-2 will open additional market opportunities. Fourth, CapEx will be reduced post Gen-2 deployment. Thank you for your attention on this Gen-1 and Gen-2 section five. We will have now a short break of exactly 15 minutes. We'll resume at 35 with the presentation of section six.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Since the beginning, the World Wide Web has never been worldwide. OneWeb's new and truly global 5G-ready network will fix that. Say you're working on the edge of the world and need to do a video call. Perhaps you're mid-ocean or mid-air. Wherever you are, you'll have a signal. OneWeb will connect your device through a customized terminal that can be as small as a briefcase and just as compact. Whatever your location, the terminal encrypts your data and sends it at high speed to our satellite fleet passing overhead. These spacecraft are radically innovative, built in our own factory at one-fiftieth the traditional time and cost, shrunk to the size of a washing machine, yet engineered to deliver powerful throughput. Month by month, we're growing our satellite fleet, and soon we'll have not only the global spectrum rights, but the network reach to deliver truly worldwide coverage.
Here's the revolutionary part. The fleet will be in low Earth orbit, 30 times closer to Earth geostationary satellites. This gives you a stable, real-time connection with no interruption or annoying lag. What's more, our fleet always keeps moving, orbiting in a constellation design that creates seamless coverage. Each satellite uses a set of beams to cover an area the size of Alaska. Terrain is no obstacle. From its flight path and passing, our fleet can always find your signal, so we can get you online from even the trickiest locations with the capacity that GEO satellite broadband can't deliver. We maintain high-grade system resilience from two ops centers using state-of-the-art ops concepts. Cloud architecture gives us powerful scalability and control remotely.
For example, we can remove satellites at the end of their service life so that the only trace we'll leave in space is on your screen right now. Now, back to that video call of yours. We beam your data back down to Earth to our nearest satellite network portal. Then via one of our point of presence gateways, positioned in secure locations trusted by global providers, it reenters the web. The journey you've just watched takes at most one-tenth of a second, and there they are. Your video call is good to start, whether with colleagues or your family back home.
Okay, welcome back. I hope everybody got a little bit of coffee and cookies, because we want to move on to the next session here, where we give you a little bit about how does all of this network technology customer vision actually come together in a set of numbers. We want to build this up because we want to start out giving you just a few bullet points on the Q1 of Eutelsat, which came out this morning as well. Sandrine will just take you through the highlights. We won't bore you because it's pretty much as expected, but that's one important building block. Srikanth will take you through the next important building block on OneWeb and where we are here in terms of building up OneWeb.
I'll come back, and we'll talk about the combined financials of the OneWeb plus Eutelsat. Sandrine, first of all, how did our first quarter go?
Well, thank you, Eva, and good morning to everyone, for those I have not already met. I will start with a quick reminder on the key financial metrics of Eutelsat on a standalone basis using our June 30, 2022 figures. Our backlog stood at June 30, 2022 at EUR 4 billion or 3.5 years of revenues, broadcast accounting for 62% of it. Revenues were at EUR 1,152 million, and they landed comfortably within our guidance for fiscal year 2022. We have reported a 74.8% EBITDA margin, among the highest in the industry, as well as a very strong cash generation with a discretionary free cash flow reaching EUR 460 million or 38% of revenues.
Fiscal year 2022 was another year of strong execution of Eutelsat's cash generation financial strategy. Our outlook for fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024 stands as follow. Our revenues for fiscal year 2023 are expected between EUR 1.15 billion and EUR 1.18 billion at a rate of one euro for one US dollar. Fiscal year 2024, we see our return to growth. Our cash CapEx will not exceed EUR 400 million in fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024. Finally, we expect to generate an average of EUR 420 million as discretionary free cash flow over the next two fiscal years, fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024. We take the opportunity of this strategic update to release today our fiscal year 2023 Q1 figures.
This quarter, as already mentioned, notably by Pascal, saw the successful launch of KONNECT VHTS, paving the way for connectivity-driven return to growth. Our total revenues for the first quarter stood at EUR 287 million, stable on a reported basis, and down by 4.5% on a like-for-like basis. Revenues of the 5 operating verticals stood at EUR 291 million. They were down by 4.3% on a like-for-like basis, in line with the midpoint of our full year objectives. Now looking at each vertical. First, starting with broadcast, 59% of group total recorded revenues of EUR 170 million, down 7% versus last year. They reflected mostly the carry-forward effect of the partial renewal of capacity with Nilesat at 7°/8° west in October 2021.
Excluding the effect of the, this effect at seven and eight west, revenues were down at a low single-digit pace. Data and professional video, 14% of group total, saw revenues of EUR 41 million, down 2%. Professional video, which now represents less than a third of revenues for this application, faced a mid-single-digit decline, while fixed data revenues were in slight decline on the back of improved volume trends, which are now offsetting most of the negative impact of competitive pressure. Government services, 12% of group total, saw revenues of EUR 35 million, down 18%. This reflected mostly the negative carry-forward effect of fiscal year 2022 U.S. government renewals, only partially offset by contribution of Eutelsat Quantum, where most of the incremental capacity is now booked in the mobile connectivity vertical.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenues were down by 8%, reflecting the transfer of sold capacity on Eutelsat Quantum from the government vertical to the mobile connectivity vertical. The quarter delivered a continued robust double-digit growth in fixed broadband and mobile connectivity. Starting with fixed broadband, 6% of revenues stood at EUR 19 million, an organic progression of 21% year-on-year. This reflects mostly the carry forward effect of the November 2021 wholesale agreement signed with Hispasat and the contribution of the multi-beam agreement signed last year on EUTELSAT 65 West A with several Mexican service providers. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenues were down by 16%, reflecting in particular a EUR 2.5 million positive one-off booked in the fourth quarter of last year.
Finally, mobility, 9% of revenues, saw revenues of EUR 26 million, up 31%, with a continued progress in maritime, driven by the agreement with Telenor in the cruise segment, as well as the contribution of Eutelsat Quantum with two beams commercialized for incremental capacity in this vertical. Overall, the first quarter revenues are in line with our expectations, and we confirm our financial objectives. You will find the detailed press release and presentation on our internet site on this Q1 figures. I am now handing over to Srikanth, who will share with you more financial data on OneWeb.
Thank you. Okay. Thank you, Sandrine. Good morning. Hi, everyone. Shown on this chart are four key metrics for OneWeb that we would like to highlight today. The figures are in millions of dollars and represent management estimates for the period of 12 months ending thirtieth September 2022. First, about the current order backlog. Neil spoke about the pipeline that the OneWeb team is currently pursuing across all continents. This pipeline currently stands at $2.7 billion. As we prepared the charts, 22% had converted into confirmed orders at $600 million. As, once again, repeating what Neil said, this picture is fast changing, and since then it's moved to nearly 25%, nearing about $700 million of confirmed orders. This pipeline includes the contract with Eutelsat for $275 million.
The other contracts account for $325 million. These are multiyear signed contracts in several geographies with an average maturity of 5 years. We are all quite encouraged by the deal momentum, that we are seeing on the commercial pipeline. Second, OneWeb's top-line counter started ticking in this 12-month period with an estimated $21 million revenue from our customers in North America. While the OneWeb service coverage is currently limited to 50 degrees north, there is good momentum in the last few months, and this will get reflected in the revenue guidance that you will see in the next chart. Revenues from geographies in the lower latitudes will follow the rocket launches and the Gen-1 system rollout. Third, the estimated EBITDA loss for the last 12 months, ending September again, is $198 million.
This has to be seen in the context of revenue of $21 million and OpEx cost estimated at $219 million. OneWeb's standalone EBITDA is expected to break even in fiscal year 2025. This will be driven by higher revenues and operating leverage arising out of the fixed nature of many lines in our cost structure. The fourth metric here is CapEx, and this is a significant one at this stage. Here, we reflect cash CapEx. Around $710 million was spent during the last twelve months. Cumulatively, since inception, cash CapEx on the Gen-1 system is around $4.5 billion to date. This represents 90% of the estimated full cost of $5 billion on Gen-1.
The entire Gen-1 CapEx is fully funded by equity, including for the remaining $500 million to be spent in the next 12 months to complete the build-out. There is zero financial debt in the company at this stage. Let me also point out that while I mentioned the total Gen-1 build to be an estimated $5 billion, OneWeb shareholders have injected equity of just $2.7 billion. These reflect real CapEx savings of $2.3 billion, which have resulted in a cost advantage that is unique to OneWeb and a light balance sheet that is unmatched in the industry. Let me go onto the next chart to give you an overview of OneWeb's revenue forecast. On this chart, you can see on the left side the revenue guidance for two years and some objectives for the years thereafter.
This is for standalone OneWeb, and these are figures before the revenue synergies that Eva spoke about a little earlier. On the graph, you can see four data points. The revenue guidance for the Eutelsat accounting year ending June 2023 is EUR 50 million, and this reflects the early momentum that I spoke about. For the second year, ending June 2024, the guidance points to a three to five-fold increase to a range of EUR 150 million-EUR 250 million. The guidance for the third year, ending June 2025, reflects a doubling over fiscal 2024 and growing significantly thereafter as you can see on the chart. Add on to these projections the revenue synergies factor. That sum will input into Eutelsat's overall combined EUR 2 billion objective for fiscal year 2027 that you will hear from Eva in the next chart.
Our objective for Gen-2 commercial launch being early 2028, the longer term trajectory will then take shape. On the right-hand side of this chart, we have outlined the key enablers that support this revenue guidance. Number one, the Gen-1 system, which now covers latitudes over 50 degrees north, is expected to be globally available across all latitudes during fiscal 2024, enabling revenue generation in all the geographies where there is demand. Number two, from a supply perspective, as we deploy the full system, the capacity in fiscal 2023, which has started with just 130 gigs, will increase eightfold to 1.1 Tb per second in early 2024, calendar year 2024. Number three, our business model involves the participation of distribution partners. We have signed at OneWeb 44 distribution partnership agreements to date, and this number, again, is a fast-changing picture.
This number keeps increasing, making it possible to service customers in all the key markets. Number four, mobility verticals, that is aero and maritime, they require ubiquitous coverage. The same applies to military use cases in the government segment. With global coverage, we will unlock opportunities in these verticals. As Massimiliano mentioned, more user terminals will get added to the product portfolio. Currently, we have two models on offer to our customers, and this will jump to more than 12 during fiscal year 2024, significantly improving delivery capability at varying price points. Finally, I must emphasize once again how encouraged we are about the momentum in the commercial pipeline. The revenue ramp-up plans are backed by the strong pipeline, multiyear pipeline of $2.7 billion that Neil spoke about, which by the way, will fill up just 1/3 of OneWeb's network capacity.
There is significant headroom in terms of capacity and geography for more order conversion. Let me summarize what I've been speaking about. Our network build-out is fully equity financed. The OneWeb balance sheet is light and unmatched in the industry. There is zero financial debt. There is growing customer demand, and our supply capabilities are improving, and our partnership agreements are in place and improving and growing. This momentum is starting to reflect in our deal pipeline, as you have seen, into order conversion, which is a fast-changing picture, and eventually into revenue execution. Thank you, and back over to you, Eva.
Thank you, Srikanth. I think you've now seen a little bit about Eutelsat, where we are, right as we finish our Q1 in 2023. You've seen the outlook for OneWeb standalone, and then there's a third and important element, which is all about the synergies. The synergies I talked about a little bit earlier are actually quite certain and quite robust and are split over three different categories. Revenue synergies around commercial acceleration of OneWeb, leaning into the commercial network of Eutelsat. There are cost synergies, which are quite low in terms of implementation cost because it's a lot about avoided cost over the next couple of years. Then finally, there are quite important CapEx synergies already from year one in terms of building Gen-2 network together and start thinking GEO and LEO together.
All of this adds up to EUR 1.5 billion in NPV, a very important value driver. Importantly also is the low execution risk, the good balance about it, and the fact that we already know OneWeb so well, we work together as two companies, given our investment 18 months ago, that we're ready to start rolling on these very fast. Let me dive into each of the three ones and start out with the commercial synergies. This one is not going to automatically close off the screen, guys. I'll keep on talking. Acceleration of the commercial ramp-up here is clearly that OneWeb will lean into the commercial network of Eutelsat.
We'll reduce the time to market in terms of being able to talk to so many customers at the same time, where we are already deep into some of these six different verticals you saw maybe 20 minutes ago. You will also be able to bundle offers. That will take a little bit more time before we get to the full bundled terminal antenna, but we can already now commercially bundle, and then we can start testing and proof of concepting, actually, combined also in terms of product and delivery. In three to five years, we will get to a single hybrid GEO-LEO terminal that can unlock also new use cases and potentially bring us into additional new verticals. That's when we get to what we'd call a truly seamless customer experience, so you can see adding on to the commercial synergies over time.
We expect this to ramp up to around 150 in year four, right now, but also continuing after that, in addressing this truly unique, seamless GEO-LEO offering. Those are the top line, the revenue synergies. Also importantly, the cost synergies, a bit more traditional in the way we look at it, but clearly very strong technical, commercial, and administrative organizations. We will fully integrate the two organizations in terms of the technical delivery. That's needed to actually think in GEO, LEO, and the complementarity of the two networks from the start when we start designing Gen-2, which is something we've started now and will be probably finalized by the next summer, but also when we think about how we renew the GEO fleet in Eutelsat.
Commercial, it's clear a lot of sales forces in our connectivity unit. As you know, Eutelsat has just created a video and connectivity unit, and this is all about creating the connectivity unit both around the connectivity sales in GEO and in LEO. Then finally, a more traditional staff, back-office functions, IT, purchasing. It's clear that we will also have a totally different purchasing power joining the two companies together. We actually expect the cost synergy to ramp up over a five-year period because of a lot of it being avoided cost. That's why we believe that over a five-year period, this would add up to around EUR 80 million in terms of cost synergies.
The final one, CapEx synergies, which is actually going to kick in from year one, and that's also a big element of the time sensitivity of this, has to do with the start of the design Gen-2. marty told you a little bit that that's actually going on now. You started seeing some of the requirements in Gen-2. We are also, this spring, around Christmas time, going to start having a real dialogue with multiple suppliers in the industry to be able to size up how the offer is going to be put together and who will be our suppliers for Gen-2. Rightsizing and thinking the GEO and LEO match into that is quite important as of now. Also, longer term, medium longer term, also the rationalization of the GEO fleet.
It's clear that Eutelsat standalone would rationalize the video part of our GEO fleet that has little to do with this deal. Also, when you think about the connectivity and need to launch satellites, adding capacity into the GEO space, we'll be able to stand on top of actually having a global LEO coverage for the areas that don't need massive amounts of concentrated capacity. That's the part in space, which is clearly a quite important part of our CapEx spend, but we actually also have a significant part on ground. Utilization of ground infrastructure, teleports, baseband, fiber purchasing, will create a different purchasing power and a different network on ground. Also over time converge IT systems, we probably won't need both Oracle and SAP, sorry for one of them.
Things like that will have to converge over time. In total, we think that CapEx synergies would actually kick in quite significantly at the order of magnitude of EUR 80 million from year one, and then of course, improve with scale over time. Those were the three key elements, EUR 150 million in revenue synergies ramping up over three to four years. Secondly, cost synergies, ramping up to EUR 80 million over five years. Then finally, CapEx synergies from year one of EUR 80 million. All of that adds up to the EUR 1.5 billion in total. What this give you when you have Eutelsat, which many of you have followed for years, OneWeb, which we just gave you a bit of detail on, and then the synergies. This is a picture you'll end up with.
The combined picture is a company of double-digit growth, targeting to be around EUR 2 billion in 2027, five years from now. Double-digit growth also over the medium to long-term, 2027, we'll have just started the Gen2 commercialization, which means that over time, that will continue to be a very strong growth. We expect EBITDA to outgrow bottom line or top line. We expect EBITDA to be growing faster than our top line in this period, targeting EUR 1.4 billion in 2027. Growing after that also naturally as the Gen2 network will start filling from 2027 and on. EBITDA, we expect to continue to outpace top line also after. CapEx, we expect it to be in the range, an average range of EUR 725 million-EUR 875 million over this period of 2024-2030, which includes the CapEx synergies.
We also expect some of it to be front-loaded given the investments needed in Gen2. What we do believe on the longer term, which is quite important, is that CapEx will come back down towards the end of this period and also into the years beyond, based on the fact that a Gen2 will be regenerative. That means that you will be able to keep launching new satellites in there. You will not need a big bump on Gen-3, but you'll be able to do more maintenance CapEx on the Gen2. We expect a significant rationalizing of the GEO fleet, leading to a much lower CapEx needed for the GEO satellites.
In terms of leverage, this will give us a peak leverage here at the next summer when we close the deal around four, which is higher than Eutelsat has been traditionally. We expect medium term to come back to a three times leverage, which means that we'll suspend dividend for three years, one year more than this that we announced this summer. We do expect to come back to a midterm leverage of three and also to be able to reinstate some kind of dividend policy after that. This is going to happen how? What's the timeline? Right now we have just finalized most of our filings.
Most of our filings are in, so the clock is starting to tick, which means there are probably five to six months to go, FCC probably being the longest one. We don't expect any big issues with it given the complementarity of the two companies, but that will probably bring us at least to the end of calendar Q1 2023, before we get most of those returns. We expect by at least the end of H1 2023, we'd be able to finally approve this deal with all the regulatory approvals in. It's a bit of a process ahead of us. The good thing is that we are already involved with OneWeb. We work together, as we are number two shareholder in OneWeb, so a lot of these things have already started to happen.
Just summing it up, because I think it's important just to be clear on where we come from. Eutelsat needs to address the huge connectivity market, and we've started that with our telecom pivot strategy. However, when we look at a market which will grow double digit to $16 billion in 2030, 2/3s of that growth is going to come in Non-GEO. Eutelsat needs to address that market as well as we address it in the GEO. We need to address all of the $16 billion. OneWeb is just by far the best opportunity for Eutelsat to address that. It's one of only two constellations operating today with priority spectrum and filings, so everybody else will have lower priority to OneWeb, and we know them already. We know OneWeb. We've been there for the last 18 months.
We know how the organization work. We've already started working together. Any alternative to get into the LEO space would be less attractive and less appealing to Eutelsat. It would be too long, too expensive, and we'd be late. OneWeb is by far the most attractive opportunity for us to address the entire connectivity market. We'll be able to create a player with a truly unique position in the market because we combine the best of both worlds. We'll be able to serve customers with both the advantages geostationary in terms of large amounts of capacity at a cost-effective price, but also with all the things they want from LEO in terms of low latencies and ubiquitous service, and customers want both.
I think the strongest proof is that we have yet to meet a customer who does not want to talk about this, who does not want both, who does not see the value of this. I think that's a true strength of the uniqueness in the market, and we are the only player there. On top of that, we actually have EUR 1.5 billion in value creation together, mostly in terms of robust avoided cost, but also in terms of CapEx avoidance, if you compare to two companies standalone. We think that's a very strong value driver in this deal. That gives you a different profile from what Eutelsat is today. I acknowledge that a lot of our shareholders have been used to a different financial policy out of Eutelsat. This will be different.
This will be a company that grows double-digit, addressing this connectivity market, growing at a fast pace. Also with no dividend over the next three-year period, but we'll be able to provide a very robust financial profile where the cash flows of our legacy business finance the expansion into the connectivity market in a very robust way over the next couple of years. With this, I hope we've shared our vision for how these two come together, where we are on it right now, what kind of time it'll take, but especially also why we believe it creates a lot of value for our shareholders. With that, Neil, why don't you come up here and, I think we should open for questions. For those of you who are in the room, it's the easy way, just raising your hand.
We will probably also jump and just give the guys on the screen a chance or two in between, but let's start out with those of you who actually made the trip here. Should we start over there? You were fast.
Thank you, Eva.
Can you maybe also say who you are, where you're from? Because I'm a little bit new to this, so.
Thank you. I am Sami Kassab from BNP Paribas, and I have three questions, please.
Three. Okay.
To start with, the first one, you've painted a $16 billion market opportunity of which almost half would go to LEO, $8 billion or so perhaps. I'm struggling to reconcile the revenue guidance of $600 million that you've provided. It seems low compared to the market opportunity, compared to the fact that there are only two players out there, and who knows whether there'll be many more. Can you elaborate a little bit on perhaps the market share you think you can get out of the $8 billion in terms of LEO or the $16 billion, and whether. How to put into context the two numbers?
Yeah.
The second question is on the EBITDA margins. You suggested that the new co would have similar EBITDA margin to what Eutelsat currently has. Yet my understanding was that in the connectivity industry, the ground costs in particular are higher than in the video side. How could margins stay where they are today if video declines and the more expensive connectivity revenues grow? Lastly, we've seen the Intelsat, the SES, the Viasat go down the vertical integration route and buy distributors. Some of them OneWeb has signed deals with. How do you think about vertical integration, and do you think that having a direct access with the service providers is something that you may consider going forward? Thank you.
Yeah. Maybe I start out, and you-
Sure.
You supplement. If I do fast first, the EUR 16 billion is in 2030. Yes, you're right, it's about a 50/50 split estimated there. However, there are multiple estimates, and I think we have it in backup on that this might actually be bigger. It's clear that what we guide is EUR 600 million, which might seem conservative in terms of our expected market share. It's probably fair that you'll be after if it comes out higher, I would think. But we definitely expect that as only one of two players, we'll have a significant market share of the LEO capacity out there already. You wanna give a word or two on?
Yeah. I mean, I think that's just to echo Eva's point. I mean, what she's telegraphing is that we think that market penetration, particularly from a OneWeb perspective, we think that market penetration is somewhat conservative. I think it equates, we think, to somewhere around a 20% market penetration. So, we think we can do better than that, but I think it makes sense to be cautious in this context.
Yeah. On EBITDA margins, I think there's an element of the same. We expect, once the Gen-2 network is fully up and running, to have the same EBITDA margins. There's no reason not to see that. It is a scale game in a network, and over this period, it will only be launching in 2027, 2028, and then it needs to be commercialized. Once Gen-2 is fully commercialized, we expect EBITDA margins to come up and be the same, but that's over this period. There's no reason at all to think that we won't have a constellation margin at the same level as we have in Eutelsat combined today.
I'm a little bit confused on the 20% market share penetration numbers you gave a minute ago. Do I have to understand that within the EUR 2 billion forecast that you have for the new co, you have EUR 1.6 billion for networks for the connectivity side in it? Or what's the 20% of the EUR 8 billion then?
No. Actually, Jean-Yves Roubert is actually here in the front row. If you want to get into the market analysis in that detail, I suggest you talk with him in a while after the event. He'll take you through the numbers in exhaustive detail.
Very good.
about how you arrive at that.
Let's discuss the vertical integration last.
Yes.
Very briefly.
Briefly?
Very briefly for that question. We, you know, EUR 7.5 billion for LEO. 7.5 billion for LEO is in fact the total market, including consumer, right? The B2B part of that is roughly EUR 6 billion. We are talking again 2030. As Neil was suggesting, 2030, we have this conservative estimate implied in the guidance of 20%. We aim at more than that, clearly, rather 25% or more. This is how you can reconcile the numbers. Happy to talk later.
Okay.
Very clear. Thank you.
Finally, on the vertical integration, yes, and I think you're mentioning Eutelsat and SES, and we certainly also see players like Kuiper and Starlink who are fully vertically integrated, right? All the way from launchers and satellite manufacturing all the way to actually supplying end customers. We have, as both companies, chosen to work with the industry and standing on the backs of investments that the entire industry is doing, whether it's in terminals or in satellites or in launchers, but also on the customer side, working with distributors, because we think that it's better go to market. They know the market already. We have not opted to integrate vertically and buying our customers. That also creates some conflicts when you start doing that.
We have seen, especially, SES buying up in the military segments and others. We would rather actually work with all distributors. We're seeing that many of those distributors, even though they've been acquired by colleagues in the market, are still interested in talking to us because they wanna provide the best capacity out there to their end customers.
Mm.
You had anything?
Yeah. Yeah, I would just add. Would you like some water, by the way?
Yes, please.
We can bring it for some time.
Thank you.
I would just echo Eva's comments. I mean, I get asked this question all the time, and I think that, you know, there are some specific instances where you have to buy a distributor, which we did in the case of serving the U.S. DOD, because you have to have a cleared organization to do that. There's specific requirements where you have to. But I think that the point about distributors, buying distributors is that, and as Eva mentioned, you do distort the market, certainly, and at the end of the day, you inherently limited customer choice at the end. In my experience, limiting customer choice in the long run is probably not the best idea. Unless there's a very specific reason to do it, you've got to think carefully about whether you want to go down that path.
Thank you.
I think we had another one right in front of you. We'll go.
Thank you. I wondered if you could give me the rough average cost of sending up a GEO satellite and a LEO satellite with cost of the satellite, cost of the launch, and cost of insurance. Second question is sort of linked to that. In the past, GEO satellite companies have had CapEx holidays. Could there be one coming up for you? Or is the new LEO investment going to absorb a lot of capital spending? Final question on Amazon. I don't know how to pronounce this. Kuiper?
Kuiper.
Thank you. Do you see that as a competitor or a client or something in the middle?
Yeah. Okay. Those are big questions. Let me just start out with maybe the detail on how we break down the cost and CapEx on GEO and LEO satellites.
I can do the LEO bit. That's
You do the LEO.
Yeah, yeah. I can take.
I think also, if you really want the details, I think Pascal and Massy-
Yes
are the right guys to find right after this presentation, and they'll be happy to
Yeah
To tell you. A big GEO satellite comes in a bit of different sizes. There's the flex sats that are more standard, and then there's all the way up to the KONNECT VHTS that we've just launched. Those are three-digit million coming from EUR 250 million all the way up to EUR 500 million in terms of everything included. This depending a bit on how big capacity and how many special missions they might carry. Pascal can give you a much more breakdown on how that launch is, of course, an important part of this. Building the satellite is an important one. Ground infrastructure is also an element, building out teleports to do that.
In order of magnitude, if you wanted kind of three big satellites to cover the world, you might be looking at three times 400-500 to cover the world. LEO, just order of magnitude.
Yes, I'll give you broad brush numbers 'cause we're still in negotiations with some launch providers, so I don't want to get into too much detail here. I can tell you, the gentleman in the front row there, and I'm not going to ask him to comment on this, we have extremely detailed knowledge of the market price for medium-sized launch rockets around the world, having been in negotiations during the course of this year on many of them. In rough order of magnitudes, and I'm not going to do it on a per satellite basis, I'll leave you to do the last part of the math yourself. Generally speaking, we launch between 36 and 40 satellites each time we launch. All-in cost, including rocket, satellite manufacture, and insurance is just slightly under $100 million.
CapEx holiday, it's a great term, right? I think what we're looking at here is that for at least the next couple of years here, we will need to launch Gen-2. i don't think we'd consider that a CapEx holiday. I think it's probably CapEx intense work to get Gen-2 launched. When you look at it slightly longer term, when you look Gen-2, we Gen-2 to be more of a maintenance. Given that it lasts around ten years, that will be at a much slower rhythm in terms of CapEx needed to maintain Gen-2 and to renew it.
Also on the GEO side, we'll be able to probably reduce order of magnitude half the need in terms of CapEx on geostationary. not sure that qualifies entirely as holiday, because that would mean absolutely no work, but maybe it's kind of more of a it's definitely much lower rhythm.
Thank you. I forgot to give my name and place. It's Charles Elliott, Inflection Point Investments.
Be invited, Charles.
Thank you.
The last one, Kuiper. I think, yes, we definitely expect to see them coming up. They have cleaned up a lot of,
Yeah
launch capacity.
I think the answer to your question is yes, actually. You know, different parts of Amazon talk to us about seeking connectivity, I expect them to be a customer, and also we expect them to be a competitor. We don't really know candidly what their go-to-market model will be, and also at what point they will actually truly be in the market with an offering. Ironically, our factory in Florida is actually across the road from theirs, so we actually see what goes in and what comes out, and right now there's a lot of stuff going in. You know, that's not to say that they clearly are committed to the endeavor.
They've bought up a lot of the world's launch capacity, which also makes it harder for a fourth player to show up because there's not much launch capacity left, which is why we took the step of strategically making sure we locked in our launch capacity Gen-2 now. We have options on it for 90% of that capacity now. But increasingly this industry is gonna become more and more cooperative, as indeed we are today with Starlink. We're a customer of theirs, in that we've bought rockets from them, and also we obviously have worked pretty hard on spectrum coordination. I expect down the road, Amazon will also be.
There'll be a mix of competition and a mix of, they'll be a customer, I expect.
Okay. I think we had one in the back, and then we have one over here. Oh, you're also there. Sorry, yeah. Didn't skip you over. Yeah, there, and then we have you. Forgot you. Yeah.
Hi. Thanks. Ben Lyons, Credit Suisse. I had a few as well. Sorry. The first one, if I could go back to CapEx. What gives you the confidence that the CapEx will drop off? You know, and if you think about data usage, it's growing at sort of 30%-40% a year CAGR. Will you not just have to launch new satellites? And if there is a maintenance CapEx type scenario, why is that not happening with Gen-1? The next one would be just on the revenues. I believe when the first OneWeb investment was made, I think the guidance for revenue was revenues were $1 billion within three to five years. You know, why has that changed? Why is that now more than $600 million standalone?
The last one, could we just get an update on the shareholders that have committed to the deal and their respective ownerships? Thank you.
Okay. Let me take the first one, and then you might comment on the revenues.
Yeah.
CapEx, yes, we do expect it to drop off with the current estimates we have for how the market will develop. We expect it to drop off to be more of a maintenance CapEx, where we will renew the satellites Gen-2 over time, so on a rolling Gen-1 will be running, will be replaced by 2027, 2028, where we'll have Gen-2 up there. You want to say a few words on the previous revenue?
Yeah, sure. First of all, the two comments on that. Look, you know, we have some very demanding shareholders. We have pretty aggressive internal revenue targets. I would say that, as is a matter of public record, we are later in deployment than we expected. We had expected to complete deployment by actually July. However, we got involved in some geo political movements and had to essentially. We will resume launching in October and complete those launches essentially by the end of spring. We are somewhat behind schedule from what we initially anticipated.
Okay. On shareholders, just to give you a quick overview, it's clear that we had both boards actually in strong support of this deal, which means that the shareholders will actually merge into shareholders of new Eutelsat, which means that the current shareholders of Eutelsat, where BPI is by far the largest, but also FSP is a large shareholder, will also be shareholders in new Eutelsat. On top of that, we brought in a new shareholder with CMA CGM, which is a big French shipping logistics company, who's also very excited about this whole sector and what it can bring. From the OneWeb side, I think we're actually bringing a very strong set of shareholders with a lot of knowledge around the connectivity.
First of all, Bharti Group, very strong telecom competence from a very global perspective, which will be, when we merge the two, the largest shareholder in new Eutelsat, but also, SoftBank, Hanwha and the U.K. government, which had helped reset OneWeb on its footing a couple of years ago, will be shareholders in the new entity.
Sorry, just a quick follow-up then. Can you all provide a percentage for those via FSP, BPI and CMA CGM? I'm not current, yeah, just in terms of those.
I think Bpifrance is between 23% and 24%. CMA CGM is around 7%.
Mm-hmm
Around there. FSP is still around 7%. That moves a little bit, but around there.
Thank you.
Yeah. I think we promised to. Because you were very fast first, and then we'll come over here.
Great. Thank you. It's Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank. Thanks for the information this morning. Just going back to Gen-2 capex and the slide which you had about the savings between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion. I think previous comments, Eva, you made that a LEO constellation from scratch would be around $5 billion to $6 billion. Should we be thinking Gen-2 is around the $4 billion for the initial kind of investment? And secondly, around leverage, what, if anything, have you heard about your credit rating from the agencies?
Mm-hmm
You are guiding to delevering over time.
Yeah.
What I saw this morning, I think you've suspended the dividend for an additional year. Is that a kind of consideration in that? And lastly, just on the operational side, you talked about the I guess high barriers to entry, but also customers wanting to diversify their suppliers. How does that impact pricing? Because just looking at the read across from video and your kind of legacy, I guess, business, we have seen that under pressure and eroded over time. So how do you give us comfort that pricing on the connectivity side will remain resilient? Thank you.
Okay. Let me start with the first one, and then maybe Sandrine will talk a little bit about the credit ratings and the leverage. We'll come back on the execution side and pricing. Let me start out with the Gen2 CapEx. That sounds like a not totally wrong number you have in the top of mind, around the EUR 4 billion in terms of what we're looking at for Gen2. I think it's. I'm not gonna be 100% certain because we simply haven't done the full work on Gen2, but that is the kind of envelope we're looking for for Gen2 constellation launch given the synergies we can see. Sandrine, on leverage and discussions with rating agencies?
The rating agencies, as you know, we have two rating agencies on a solicited basis, the first one being Fitch, where we are BBB and S&P BBB- as a Eutelsat standalone. Both of them have issued a note after the announcement of the transaction with a credit watch pending the transaction to happen. There is still a lot of work to be done with the rating agencies. We expect them to issue in the next coming months a more precise view on what they expect to be the rating at the closing of the transaction. No specific precise discussion at this stage. It will happen in the next coming weeks and months.
I think what's important is for also rating agencies, they're doing this work in a market where there's very little comparison. There's no other player.
Yeah
Combining GEO and LEO. There's Starlink, and that's not necessarily a lot of public information on that. I think, as Sandrine's saying, there's some real work going on with the credit agencies understanding this deal.
Yeah. Part of the work being, as Eva just mentioned, to assess what is the business profile and how the rating agency will look at the business profile of the combined entity.
On pricing expectations over time, Neil, do you?
Yeah. Look, I think that in the model we've you know we do expect price compression as we go forward. I would say that our own model the price compression we're expecting is actually faster price compression than is actually in the market research that we've seen. I will say that our experience today and in the contracts that we've executed and signed and the pipeline is actually ahead of our expectations. We continue to remain conservative in our outlook as we go forward from a pricing perspective.
Just on pricing, I think, it's true that we've opted to remain relatively conservative here.
Yes. Yeah.
In the connectivity market, we're talking about a market with massive growth.
Yeah.
When you compare to the video market, that's very different.
Mm-hmm.
Video market is in slow decline, and there is a lot of capacity in the market, and it's a combination of lots of available capacity and a market that's in slow shrink, which is creating a lot of the pricing pressure.
Yeah.
In a market where, honestly, supply is running after demand. I mean, as demand gets there, if we. It's also a market where we believe there'll be no more than 3 or 4 players that will work on an effective basis because of spectrum and because of these coordination needs. That's why we believe that we'll be able to hopefully behave decently in the market also in terms of pricing.
Yeah.
It'll be much further down the line when you have massive capacity up there that you might see some of that pricing pressure.
I think it's very important to note that pricing is quite nuanced, right? So the pricing and our pricing, this has been our experience, and after doing these 44 negotiations. Pricing is nuanced. It is different by market, by vertical, by geography, right? We have pretty acute idea now of actually what that is, based upon our experience. Also, we have quite a lot of market intelligence based upon what pricing is around the world from the telephone companies who pay for SatComs. So we have a pretty good feel for what is market. Again, as just to underline Eva's point, we have opted to be conservative in our model from a pricing perspective.
Yeah. I think we have one over here.
Yes. Hi. This is Alexander Peterc from Société Générale . Just a few questions on my side. Regarding your revenue modeling for 2027, I'd like to understand where exactly you've put the revenue synergies. The OneWeb $600 million standalone at least, that's ex revenue synergies, as I understand, but the $2 billion is with those revenue synergies. Is that correct?
Yes.
Secondly, still on that EUR 2 billion number by 2027, it would be helpful if you could give us a number for the CAGR in bandwidth pricing you expect. You've been discussing this just now, but maybe is it closer to -10% to -15%? What kind of fill rate do you expect by 2027, where I suppose it should be pretty much optimal or getting close to that.
Mm-hmm.
Secondly, on leverage, you say that at 4 times you have your peak leverage on pro forma fiscal 2023 numbers. Should I understand from that that in any scenario you will see a decline in leverage from fiscal 2023 onwards? Or is there a scenario where this actually arises, and what are you going to do in that case?
Should we start out with the?
Yes.
Let me start out with the revenue modeling. Yes, the 2.0 is including the synergies for 2027, so that's a target of Eutelsat plus OneWeb plus synergies in terms of EUR 2 billion. That remains in the conservative range for what we've just explained. I think the CAGR in terms of pricing. I mean, I think this is a combination where Jean-Yves, you wanna maybe comment on it and fill rates in 2027. 2027 will be a bit of a funny year because we'll be at the very end of Gen-1 and at the very start of Gen-2, and then we'll have most of our GEO capacity up there. Jean-Yves, you want to give a few elements of pointers?
Very simply, I have a mic here. Very simply, pricing, as Neil said in research, in particular Euroconsult, is -10% CAGR over the period. We have taken more aggressive assumption, aggressive meaning faster decline, relatively significantly aggressive, so in the range of -10% versus -15%, closer to -15%.
Leverage, yes, we expect the end of the year here to be around four times leverage, and then it should come down from there. That's our expectations in our model and most of the scenarios we can do around it. That's the expectation. It will come down to the mid-term three times in the mid-range, in the mid-term. Should we go into the back row there? There are a few questions there.
Thank you. My name is John Davies from Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm gonna break with tradition and just have one question. In the last accounts, OneWeb had around $800 million of accumulated losses. I guess they'll be getting almost $1 billion by the time the deal is done. That implies quite a lot of potential for a big deferred tax asset. Could you give some idea of how you think this will impact the effective tax rate for new Eutelsat over the next few years? Thank you.
Okay.
Srikanth.
Srikanth. Well, yes, there are some deferred taxes in OneWeb, which, Srikanth, do you wanna detail this? Because yes, it could come into potential be offset against future potential gains-
Okay.
in the OneWeb unit.
Okay. The OneWeb main entity, of course, is incorporated in the U.K. T.he primary entity, the primary assessment jurisdiction is the U.K. We do have, and you will notice from the annual report filed with Companies House for the year-end March 2022, it's in public domain, you will pick it up. At that time, we had reported the unrecognized deferred tax assets. At that time, the assessment was done on the basis of the then enacted corporate tax rate of 25%. Since then, in the last two weeks, there's been the development. It's now scaled down to 19%. I'll give you a sense of what the picture looks like in the U.K. after the 19% scale down.
Yeah, as of now, the unrecognized deferred tax assets, that is applying the 19% is upwards of $300 million, can be availed of in the future when you have taxable U.K. profits. We can say that roughly 90% of this is quite clear in terms of its possibility or, you know, in terms of where we stand, because most of this pertains to unclaimed capital allowances. As far as the operating losses are concerned, after the Chapter 11 acquisition, only 10% of the $300 million is prior to. Almost everything else is post the Chapter 11. Therefore, most of, you can say 90% of the $300 million is quite secure in terms of its possibility to set off. Of course, you need potential U.K. profits to set off in future.
As far as impact on Eutelsat overall effective tax rate, I have no comments. It's for Sandrine to.
Take the next question.
Hi, thank you. It's Carl Murdock-Smith from Berenberg. I'll go back to the normal of asking more than one. So two from me. Firstly, it might be a slightly unfair question, but I'd just like to ask you to kind of go back to the terms of the deal. If there's one thing that this morning's really shone a light on, it's how different the two investment cases are of Eutelsat and OneWeb.
How you reached the very clean kind of 50/50 terms, particularly given that Eutelsat obviously already own 23%. And then secondly, it's more kind of softer question. You talked, Neil, about how your customers are all delighted and excited about the merger. I actually wanted to ask more about staff. Obviously the culture of working for a startup very different to working in an established business. There are your competitors have very attractive and shiny brands that lots of people would love to have on their CVs. How do you retain your staff? What's staff retention like, and how do you keep them engaged as you're going through this merger?
Sure. Should I start with the soft one and then give you the hard one?
I think everybody wants Eutelsat on their CV, don't they?
Of course.
Of course. No, but go ahead.
Yeah. Look, I would say, I mean, you're absolutely right. I mean, let's call it what it is. You know, the period between announcement and close is always a sort of slightly fragile period for a company. I can tell you that the day we announced it, you know, we did a town hall. I did, you know. One of the benefits of working for a very small company rather than a very large company, you can actually eyeball people in the room when you're doing announcements. We got basically everybody in London in one room. I could look around, and Sunil was with me.
I would say that the overwhelming, not exclusive, but the overwhelming feedback from the team was that they're all absolutely excited about the proposition of coming together with Eutelsat. They think it's exactly the right thing. You know, if you look at our people, most of them are, you know, we have a mixed feel from the satellite industry, from the telecom industry. I would say, you know, almost all, not all, but almost all are very excited about the prospects of getting together with Eutelsat because they know it makes a great deal of sense for customers. They also know that for, you know, in the long-term, this is exactly the right, this LEO GEO combination makes a whole deal of sense. Now, that said, you're absolutely right.
You know, there's always some duplication in these. I would say that I've got quite a lot of experience in doing sort of, you know, mergers and M&A over the years. It's actually when you see people, you know, face-to-face that you really get a measure of it. Since then, I would say that the enthusiasm for the deal has not waned at all in the organization. Now, there are some folks who work in functions which are obviously duplicative, right, who are obviously nervous, and you know, that is clearly the case. What we have done, we've done the usual things about making sure we protect, you know, the intellectual capital of the company, during this period of time. We watch very carefully what our attrition rates are.
I mean, really carefully what our attrition rates are, particularly on key members of staff. We also look critically about our ability to how we can attract new candidates coming into the company. During this period of time, we've been very successful in hiring some really excellent candidates, some really excellent talent into the company. It's not to say I'm not going to look you in the eye and tell you that I'm not worried about it. I worry about it 'cause that's my job, and I look at it all the time, and you can tell we have a great deal of precision about it. Overall, so far this has been extremely smooth. It's because we're not one of our competitors is one of the reasons why people want to work for us. They have a choice, right?
They want to work for us because we're not like our competitors as much as what it is that we actually do.
Just coming back on your first element, because it's clear that as we speak, this is a unique company. Eutelsat plus OneWeb will be a unique company. OneWeb standalone is also a unique company. There's not a lot of comparisons out there in terms of valuation. The deal was made on the basis of valuation of the latest financing round of OneWeb, which added up to $3.4 billion for OneWeb. Another element was the implied value that the 23% share had in the Eutelsat shareholding, which was also around the $3.4 billion. That was how it was valued, and that actually matched up well with a 50/50 split.
Now that would be a little bit perturbed by the by the dividend that might be paid in shares here, but overall, a very balanced combination of two very different sizes. A high growth company launching a new network, which is just starting to fill, where the entire network has been financed by all equity, no debt, and a company much more mature with a very solid cash flow, but also with a very different financial profile. Yes, it's two very different companies, which also gives a very different financial profile for Eutelsat shareholders here. I think the important thing is that this is a share deal, which means that all of OneWeb shareholders step into new Eutelsat. They become part of new Eutelsat. It's not a cash sale with a control premium and everything else.
It actually comes in at the latest valuation round, and all of the shareholders in OneWeb is stepping into new Eutelsat, combining with Eutelsat. I think that's the strength of the deal, where we actually bring together also the two shareholdings here.
That's great. Thank you.
I think there's another one, right there.
Yeah. Thank you. Tom Singlehurst from Citi. Slightly entry-level question, so I apologize if they're a bit simple. I just wanted to double, triple-check on things like the cost savings or the cost synergies. Are those savings of costs that would have been forgone for OneWeb as a standalone company and now not happening, or are they a function of active cost reduction in the existing cost base? And if so, how much does that cost to implement that? That was the first question. Second question was on, actually, it was something I just didn't understand on the CapEx. You said that the aggregate envelope spend on Gen-1 was $5 billion, but there was a $2.3 billion saving. I didn't get that, so I was wondering whether you could sort of re-explain it.
In that context, sort of explain the Gen-2 of the EUR 4 billion envelope. Has potential to come down, once you're a combined entity.
Yeah.
That's it. Thank you.
Okay. Let me maybe start off with the first one. The cost synergies, the large majority is avoided cost over the next five-year, which is why it's building up. Of course, there will be also in the cost synergies some elements of cost takeout today. I mean, two IT systems that we are paying for today, we're probably only gonna be paying licenses for one of them. So there's also some elements of the cost synergies, which are more traditional in terms of we'll have to take those away. But the majority of cost synergies, which is also why they're ramping up over a few years, is cost avoidance, when we built the companies together. Give you the simple example, right? OneWeb has a few people in regulatory today.
We actually have a well-staffed team looking at regulatory and filings and keeping our rights in spectrum. We'll build that team together. We'll add them. Will we need to add one or two people more? Yes, but we won't need to build a full-fledged regulatory team in OneWeb over the next three to four years dealing with landing rights in all across the globe. Just an example. That's by far the largest part of it. The CapEx, I mean, we're looking at the $4 billion envelope for Gen-2.
Right now, we don't know exactly when, which year those will fall, but we do expect it to know more about this by next summer, when we've actually had the dialogue with the entire industry, getting a feel for, also, a lot of times there's some vendor financing in some of these deals, that can spread out CapEx over time. But we are kind of looking at the $4 billion envelope for the Gen-2. Wanna add to anything there, Neil, on-
Yeah, I would just say we've conducted a whole bunch of RFIs with industry, so we have a pretty good idea. Let's put it that way. You know, I would just carry this caution, right? It's only when you really get to RFPs and people are actually committing to it that you know. Also, the point being is that, you know, one of the I think if it wasn't abundantly clear in Massi and Pascal's presentation, you should take it from this. We think there's further economies we can make by combining the networks and the constellations, and we just need a bit more time to figure that out before we land on a hard number. I think you heard there was a.
I think there was another question there regarding the $2.5, the $4.5, $2.7. I think the shorthand answer to that is. I suggest if you wanna go deeper than this, we'll arrange one of the guys to give you the sort of arithmetic. Fundamentally, a lot of the capital that we've deployed was actually deployed prior to OneWeb going bankrupt. Fundamentally, the new shareholders have only committed $2.7 at this point, which fully funds the constellation. That's essentially the shorthand answer to the delta in the math. We can give you the painful workings on it, if you like.
Should we maybe allow the guys who are joining in on virtual to put forward a question or two, if there's anything that's come in, just giving them a chance?
Yeah.
To show up?
Yeah.
Okay. That's coming there.
Hello?
Hello.
Hello. Sorry, can you hear me? No. One, two. Okay. Hello? Can you hear me? Oh, okay.
Yes.
We have one question from Roland Kernen from Value-Holdings AG. Eutelsat achieved an EBITDA of EUR 862 million in 2021/2022, which corresponds to 3.74 EUR of EBITDA per share. After the merger with OneWeb, you forecast an EBITDA of EUR 1.4 billion in 2027, i.e., only in five years. Since the number of shares will double, this corresponds to an EBITDA per share of 3.04 EUR, about 20% lower than the current result. Please explain to me the added value of the transaction if in five years, if everything goes smoothly and no problems occur in the meantime, I earn less EBITDA per share than I already do in Eutelsat's current standalone setup.
Okay. Thank you for the question and the help with the math here. I think, yes, it's clear that Eutelsat, when you go one year back, had an EBITDA that was very much part of a mature business, with a very low growth or actually a slightly declining top line. When you look into 2027, you'll be at a time in the combined entity, new Eutelsat, where you will have just launched your Gen-2 and you've started to build up capacity and looking at a very solid growth profile also for the years beyond. We're looking at double-digit growth in this period.
At a time where you're just starting to fill the Gen-2 network, which will also, in the years after 2027, will allow EBITDA to outgrow top lines, thereby also bringing EBITDA ratio up at a higher level in what you'll see in 2027 specifically. We picked 2027 because it was around the five years out, but also post 2027, we expect EBITDA to outgrow top line for the simple matter that where we launched the Gen-2, that's where we spent all the CapEx on Gen-2, which has five times as much capacity in a market that grows double-digit. In a market that grows double-digit also post, we also expect to be able to continue a very solid top-line growth.
It's comparing two very different companies, one with a slightly declining top line, but very optimized cash flow and EBITDA, with a company that will be growing over this period, double-digit growth, and having a bottom line that will outgrow it because we're bringing a lot of capacity to the market. Yeah. Are there any more? Should we give them another chance? Okay. You have a list.
We have two questions from Sumit Choudhury from Nut Tree Capital. The first question is, can you talk about the backlog for OneWeb? If the merger is not approved, what happens to the Eutelsat-related backlog? The second question is, can you elaborate-
On the NEOM backlog, over what period do you expect revenues?
Let me do the first, and you do NEOM?
Sure.
Well, the Eutelsat commercial agreement take-or-pay is a standalone agreement, so that will naturally continue. We see the commercial opportunity is very strong between the two, so we will still be continuing the take-or-pay deal that was a standalone deal, not related to the merger transaction. NEOM?
On the NEOM deal, we've actually received the cash for that. I think it unwinds over. I'm looking at Søren.
81 months.
81 months.
Yeah.
We have another four questions from Thomas Coudry from Bryan, Garnier & Co. The first question is: How confident are you the shareholder meeting will vote in favor of the merger? What share of votes is secured as of today? Second question is: Can you please disclose some technological features Gen-2, weight of satellites, and number of satellites in the constellation? Do smaller form factors Gen-2 user terminals imply the use of higher frequency bands than Gen-1? Question three: What will be the global cost of Gen-2 constellation, research, build, and launch? Gen-2 satellites be built in partnership with Airbus? Final question: In order to meet EU sovereignty concerns, do you intend to fully relocate your production in Europe? Do you intend to rely as much as possible on EU providers?
That was a wide range of questions. Let me start with the first one in terms of our shareholding. I think, as you know, the way the deal is, the final vote will only be probably in calendar Q2 2023. There, as you know, we will have the final vote. We have a lot of shareholders in favor of this, including a board that voted it all. Both BPI, FSP, and also CMA CGM are all shareholders in strong favor of this deal, and those are all staying in new Eutelsat. I think we are on a good journey to actually secure the shareholder vote once we get there in the spring of next year.
The tech features, I don't know whether we do want to do that or we wanna give the chance to actually Pascal and Massi to explain this later. I think it's
Sure
There is a lot of new. I think you had a few of them on the page in there. A lot of the new features for Gen-2, but I'd say we're not there yet with Gen-2. It's on the drawing board. We know a lot of it, but it's not all certain.
Nor do we want to comment one way or the other at this point who may or may not be a potential vendor for us, for obvious reasons.
Yeah. On the EU sovereignty, I think, again, where the satellites will be produced, that will depend on the vendor selections. We simply don't know. We know they are credible, very credible suppliers in Europe with both Airbus and Thales. There are also credible American vendors. We right now haven't even started the detailed discussions with them and an RFP. That's something that will happen over the next years. So it's a bit early to talk about where they'll be produced. What will be likely is that you'll have operational centers just like Eutelsat has today that manages to operate the satellites from different locations. That's a normal thing.
If that's part of the requirements for the EU sovereign constellations, that's something we easily can supply. I'd also just say the actual requirements for the EU constellation or the EU secure constellations are actually not out yet. We're fairly certain that we're eligible for it as Eutelsat for that constellation, but the actual requirements of what will that take are not out yet. They're coming out. The eligibility is coming out as we speak these weeks, but the final RFP is probably only gonna be in Q1 next year at this stage. Of course, we'll have a close look at that because we believe we're a very credible supplier for that. Yeah.
Should we take another round and see anybody of you who made the journey here have questions? Otherwise, we'll continue with the screen questions. Let's continue with you.
Okay. Next question comes from Emilie Brunet-Manardo from DNCA. Gen-2 is to be live for 10 years and then off, does it mean we should factor zero terminal value from 2037?
No, I think the way we think Gen-2 is exactly the opposite. It's actually the opposite, that Gen-2 will be there. It will continue. We'll be able to renew it with what we call maintenance CapEx. A single satellite will last 10 years, but the constellation, I'm not gonna be saying be there forever, but as far as we can see, that the constellation will keep on renewing, adding new satellites and new capacity in there. So that's, that would be exactly the wrong answer to put that in. Should we do one from the room here?
Thank you. This is Alexander Peterc again from Societe Generale. Just a few follow-ups, if I may. One is on the OneWeb cost structure, what is the incremental EBITDA margin? So say you have $50 million more revenue than planned, how much of that falls into your EBITDA line? Is it 85%, 90%?
It's a very significant proportion. Essentially, the kind of monthly run rate of cost to run OneWeb, operating costs is somewhere between $24-$25 million a month. The only variable to the variable cost there is essentially, really, other than sales compensation and sales incentives, essentially is network costs. The answer is, you know, we can give you a very specific answer, but it's a very high flow through our revenue through to the bottom line.
Okay, excellent. Secondly on the tax situation, so you have a special tax that is in France as Eutelsat, as you know. If you double in size more or less, or you know, say by 2030, is your rebate going to stay at that EUR 200 million of your pre-tax profit? Maybe that's a question for Sandrine, if you can help. Is it, you know, are we still stuck in the same regime, or is it going to be enhanced as a result of your bigger size?
You're right, Alexander. As you know, we have a tax regime in France which is applicable to Eutelsat SA, so the operator geostationary satellite. It remains untouched, and it has no impact on the transaction. You keep on thinking individually on the tax profile of the two companies. Maybe to come back to the question that was raised before, by you, sir, the impact on the consolidated effective tax rate will happen if one day, and when, we will just decide to book on the balance sheet the deferred tax asset, which today are not booked by OneWeb on a standalone basis. This day, there will be a significant impact, of course, on the effective tax rate of the group.
Again, it will be U.K. tax losses on the OneWeb taxable basis and the French tax regime unchanged for Eutelsat the same.
Good. Yes. I think we have maybe room for one or two more questions. Yeah.
We have three more.
That's three? Oh, my God. Let's go.
We have two questions from Frédéric Genevrier from OFG. The first question is, RSCC is a shareholder of Eutelsat. Is it a good partner? Second question: What do you need to do on the commercial side to address these opportunities? Do you need more human capabilities?
I think yes to both.
Yeah.
Yes, good shareholder, and yes, we need the best talent for a high-growth company. Yes to both. Do you want-
No. Could you just remind me what the acronym is for the shareholder on the first one, and who it is?
RSCC.
Do you wanna mention that?
It's a shareholder we have. I mean, as you know, we have around 70% free float in Eutelsat. Anybody can come in and be a shareholder here. There are certain shareholders that are big shareholders, and when you get to a certain size, and that's also the case in new Eutelsat, when you get over 7.5%, you'll be able to sit on the board. That's a different category of shareholders, and you can't be dependent. We have lots of shareholders, very good shareholders that are smaller shareholders, in Eutelsat today, and I consider any shareholder who believes in the story behind Eutelsat good shareholders.
Final question is from Peter B. de Selding from Space Intel Report. Could you explain how Gen-1 focuses 84% of its capacity over land masses? Isn't the constellation evenly distributed?
Peter, thank you for that question. I put it in there deliberately to, for the space industry. Yes, but you don't have to have the satellite on all the time. The point is, what is the point of having satellites blasting full connectivity over the ocean where there's a relatively small number of consumers? Of course, I commend Massimiliano and his team here. We spend a lot of time optimizing the network to maximize capacity, but also balancing that with sellable capacity, but with the life of the satellite. That is the reason why we basically shut it off where it's not being used and turn it on where it is gonna be used, and that's how we optimize the life.
That's why, one of the reasons why our satellites last so much longer than some of our competitors, and why we're much more capital efficient.
Good. Well, with that, we're two minutes to one. I think we've kept you for three hours. I wanna thank all of you for coming and also all of you who've been on the screens for the last three hours. It's a long time to be on a screen, I know, but I hope you feel that you've gotten a little bit more of the detail of our vision and also some of the elements of why we think that this is a very credible and robust vision for the future, creating a new Eutelsat of combining OneWeb and Eutelsat for the future of satellite connectivity. With that, hope you'll have a great rest of the day, and thank you for coming.