Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Getlink Group H1 2020 Results Conference Call. I now hand over to Mr. Jacques Gounon, Chairman. Sir, go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's always a pleasure to share with you our understanding and views about our results and full year forecast. The team around me is, as usual with you, Ris, Financial Manager, with Mike Schuller and Jean-Baptiste Wautier, and of course, with Yann Leriche, our new CEO. Yann, you joined the company on July 1st, three weeks ago. What are your first feeling regarding this first contact with the group?
My first feeling are very positive. As you can imagine, I spend most of my time on the field to learn the company, and I've seen first, an impressive infrastructure, but also, and that the most important, teams that are very engaged, motivated, and who care for the future of this company. Based on that, everything is possible, and I'm very excited about the opportunities that are in front of us at Getlink.
Well. Now I suggest that we go to the presentation with the key messages, slide five. We have identified, of course, five significant elements. First of all, of course, Eurotunnel. I would say the key highlights are the three priorities to safety, which is absolutely key, quality of service, and well-being of staff and customers. What does it mean? Quality of service means that we had no interruption in our offer. We continued to work all around the clock, this has been definitely very important to attract new customers and to keep a good relationship with existing customers. We did that way with a high priority to safety for staff and customers. We have spent, as you have seen perhaps in the press release, we have spent EUR 2.3 million in order to protect our teams and our customers, mainly the truck drivers.
We offer what is called a well-being, which means that we offer a lot of services to the truck drivers. You know that at the lockdown time, of course, they had some huge difficulties, for instance, to get mask because they were not back to their own office. They were rejected from the service area in the highways. We offered food and different things we will see later on. I think it has been absolutely key to keep a very strong level of traffic. Europorte has been slightly impacted early January by the SNCF strike, as usual, as we can say. As we had no passenger trains during the lockdown, of course, it has been easier for Europorte to deliver its own trains. The only negative impact, we will see that later on, is related to the closing of some plants where we are acting.
Having said that, Europorte, even with such context, is able to deliver a positive EBITDA, the eighth semester of performance in that way. The key main indicator in these challenging times, of course, remain the cash level. We are very proud to mention that, thanks of course to the cancellation of the dividends. We have been able to maintain roughly the same level of liquidities at the end of December without any extra loans or things of that nature and without cutting the CapEx. I will come on this later. It's absolutely key. Like to like regarding the offer of the company and a strong level of cash, we have no difficulty to pay the debt service in June and no risk of breach of the covenants. Fourth point, dividends.
We believe that if there is no specific crisis in second half, we will resume dividend service. Last but not least, because environment is now very well recognized as a key priority, we have a strong CSR policy. I will come on this later. Slide six. I think that one of the key points has been the fact that we had an immediate reaction regarding the COVID crisis. We took the first measures end of February, early March, at a time where in some countries, including France and Great Britain, there were still strong question marks regarding the situation. As I said, we have implemented a very secure chain for staff, customers and subcontractors.
As I said, which is absolutely key all around the clock service, no disruption of traffic, and of course, a very high flexibility to adjust the offer to the traffic and of course, to make some savings. On slide seven, you have the figures regarding the number of missions. It's not related to the traffic. The number of missions, that means the number of offers we had, which has been reduced only in the magnitude of 20%, when it has been dramatically impacted for ferry, which were only 68% of their previous services. Unfortunately, Eurostar has been impacted at the same level than airlines, because you know that Eurostar is competing with airlines. We have a very committed staff, what Yann said when he had the first contacts with both staff and unions.
Of course, as you know, we have a strong commercial flexibility, which has been quite positive, and I make some comments later on the yield. Slide eight. A reminder of the safety and wellbeing measures we offered, and in the amount of safety investment we made, the EUR 2.3 million. A significant part is some plexiglass panels in the truck cars in order to give some specific isolated seat to the truck drivers. This has been really appreciated. Like the service center we offered. You have a nice photo with a food truck, laundry facilities, and others. Very successful. On slide nine, we had an OpEx reduction, which is more or less EUR 17 million. I don't know why it's EUR 16 million on this picture, not so important. We adjust the offer of the services to the traffic.
Of course, we made savings, EUR 9 million, through the fall of French and British system. What is absolutely key is the fact, and we will see this in the next slide, we didn't cut the CapEx. I would like to insist on that because you know that the concession runs until 2086, that we have the Brexit to deliver. We have decided to maintain every investment related to maintenance, safety, and Brexit, and other investments. No savings, no CapEx cuts, which would jeopardize the future of the company. On slide 10, you have the traffics.
This has been already published, and so I think there is no specific comment to make, except that when the British quarantine is over since the July 10th, we had an incredible record booking, and we do believe, I will comment this on the financial, that the summer seems well organized for us. On slide 11, as usual, you have the yield increase on the first semester, slightly higher than the previous years for two main reasons. First of all, of course, we have an increase of the truck pricing, which has been really accepted by the U.S.
More importantly for the passengers, even with a reduced number of passengers, the beauty of the yield management model we have implemented is the fact that if you have more long stay, if you are booking very late, the value of the ticket is much more important than if you have anticipated booking or if you have what we call the day trips, which is very cheap. It means that, without changing any levers in the yield management policy, we have the possibility to be very pleased with roughly + 6% yield in the first semester. I must confess that if things are running like they are, it will be in the same magnitude for second half. In Slide 12, just a reminder regarding Eurostar. We are not managing Eurostar. We will try to help them.
They suffered less than airlines, but of course, they suffered, you know the figures. The very good news is the fact that the border treaty, in order to delete the border controls in Brussels when you are back from Amsterdam to London, has been signed end of June. It means that when Eurostar will intensify its services to Amsterdam, we can catch a significant increase of the number of passengers. Rail freight trains roughly have suffered of the closing of a lot of plants and recession on bulk delivery by rail freight, no surprise at all. On slide 13, Europorte, same comments, which means that the reason why we had a lack of revenue is related to the closing of the plants and the fact that some deliveries have been canceled or postponed.
Having said that, with a very tight management of this business, rail freight business, we have for the eighth, as I said, the eighth semester in a row, we are still positive EBITDA. Slide 14. Let's say the funny story of ElecLink. I do prefer to speak a funny story because frankly speaking, it's out of my hands. Converter stations are completed. We are fully ready for pulling the cable in the tunnel. We have been ready for at least 18 months, something like that. We have a very good news, which is a positive report from the French railway regulator, EPSF, who said that we answered all the questions which have been raised by the safety committee in a positive way, and that there is no specific impact to the safety of the tunnel related to the electric interconnection.
Having said that. Frankly speaking, I would be very happy to be at the head of the IGC because it would mean that my last meeting was on the February 24th, and I am on holiday since that date because they don't intend, and we have a letter from them explaining that due to the crisis, kind of force majeure, they don't intend to meet before September. There is a blank, vacuum of the IGC between end of February, early September. Unfortunately, we have no means at all, no legal means, to push their decision, to call a meeting and things like that. The only thing is to wait very patiently when they decide to resume after the summer. It means that with, let's say, a quite immediate impact, the full commercial service is now expected to start early 2023.
We have a 25-year exemption, so it's not so important if we look at the DCF, but frankly speaking, let's say it's boring to wait such decision, but let's say it's life. On the last slide, 15, something which you know is very important for significant investors and stakeholders. We are working hard with a new team, new environmental directors, new CSR director on the stakeholder mapping. I will not comment this in detail, but just to explain that we will continue to be at the edge of the green support of every businesses. More importantly, slide 17, of course, some comments on the financial figures. You have the revenue, which obviously has decreased by 32%. You have the split between shuttle services and railway network.
Just regarding railway network, to remind that part of the toll is a fixed fee, which means even if Eurostar is suffering, we received, let's say, roughly one-third of the anticipated toll. Operating cost, as I mentioned, has been reduced, mainly due to the fact that we offer less missions of shuttles. We have the figures, and we have no interim in order to deal with additional traffic. We will continue to have this kind of savings for the second half. For the one around this table who are used to explain that we are not working on OpEx enough, you can say that when we decide to do, we can do. On slide 18, Europorte, nothing major things to comment, except the fact that once again, we reduce the operating cost, mainly through related furlough for the plants which are closed.
At the end of the day, slide 19, EBITDA is, let's say, perhaps disappointing, -52%, but I would say a robust EBITDA of EUR 123 million, because I do think that a lot of transport companies would be very pleased with this challenging time to keep this kind of level of EBITDA. The debt service has been paid in June. Net finance cost is EUR 116. No specific comment on that figures, and we are ready to answer to your question. On slide 20, once again, which is absolutely key focus on cash. You have the level of operating cash flow, which is less deteriorated than revenue. Level of CapEx, which, as I mentioned, is the same magnitude of the previous year. No cut cuttings, no saving on that point.
Debt service of EUR 123 million, positive free cash flow, small of course, but positive, which is the key message of EUR 11 million. Slide 21, which is a conclusion before the Q&A session. Based on the present official forecast from both England and European banks, of course, with the key assumption that there is no second peak in second half of the crisis. As we consider that we have a very resilient truck traffic and very strong passenger traffics, I can say, for instance, that we target this EBITDA of EUR 350 million for the full year. If we look at the first weeks of July, even if you have perhaps slightly less traffic, but even some good traffic, I can say that the level of revenue in July for the three weeks we have is at the same level than the 2019 one.
Just to explain that the yield increase is performing well, that the traffic is performing well, it's the reason why we are reasonably confident to deliver the EUR 350 million we are announcing. Of course, due to the IGC pause, no possibility to give guidance on 2022, which is related to ElecLink, of course. Last but not least, we believe that due to the cash position I explained, without any artificial means like specific loans or, once again, loan saving and things like that, as we have a significant amount of cash in hands, we are at ease and we believe that if there is no second peak, we can deliver a dividend next year. These are the key figures. I am now with the team, ready to answer to your questions. Thank you for your attention.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question by phone, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. We have a first question from Stéphanie D'Ath from RBC. Madam, please go ahead.
Good morning. Starting maybe with the dividend. When you say your intention is to resume dividend in 2021, do you mean with the 2020 earnings pay a dividend out in 2021, or do you mean with the 2021 earnings pay a dividend out in 2022? That's the first question.
Yeah. Easy to answer. We believe that it could be an amount in 2020 December.
Okay. My second question is on CapEx. Could you maybe let us know what your intentions are for this year and next, for the shuttle, excluding ElecLink?
Without ElecLink, we can say that the CapEx level this year will be in the same magnitude as 2019. We can resume, let's say, the long-lasting programs like, for instance, the renovation of the passenger shuttles. We are already working on that, of course, we will have a higher amount of CapEx in 2021 and years later. More or less, I would say it will be less than anticipated because as a consequence of reduced traffic, of course, we are at ease, without taking any risk regarding obsolescence and other issues, let's say, to slightly postpone part of the investment. We will have a very, let's say, focusing management of such investment, not jeopardizing the future, but not anticipating too early investment which are not definitively needed.
Having said that, the key expenses to come in the months we have in front of us are, of course, related to borders, Duty-Free, Brexit implementation, wellbeing of drivers, because we believe that as it has been really successful, we have an incredible way to attract new customers. It will be really focused on immediate support of resuming revenues, yield, and quality of service.
Maybe to finish with the third question on volume and yield, could you please let us know your volume assumptions for the second half, given the EUR 350 million EBITDA guidance? On the yield side, you had a very strong 6%. Would you expect this to be sustainable in the second half? How are you doing in terms of market share versus ferry, given the current pricing?
You know that we are always reluctant to give our own assumptions because we do prefer that each analyst does his or her own homework. What we can say is the fact that, regarding market share, we had a significant increase of market share for passengers in the shuttle, 69%. You know that each time we have a new customer, which has been the situation mainly in June, we have a very high level of loyalty, which means that we believe that we can keep a significant market share on traffic. Not resuming for full year, of course, what has been the exceptional traffic in 2019, but really in second half, to be able, of course, to fulfill the gap we suffered at the first half. For trucks, you know that the truck traffic is more or less related to GDP.
We believe that the recovery will happen before the Brexit, as it happened two times in 2019, in March and October. We are pretty confident. There will be, of course, a decline of truck traffic compared to 2019, but something slightly over double-digit, but not so significant. For market share, we are still on the basis of the 39%, 40% market share in a market which our best assumption on the truck market is -7%, Mike, something like that? It's the reason why we are confident for the 350.
Thank you. Next question comes from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays. Sir, please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I had three, actually. The first one on pricing and yields for passenger shuttle. I'm calculating a very steep increase in the second quarter, something like 25%, 30%. I heard what you said about late booking, much more than usual. Have you as well pushed pricing up in the current situation? Also looking at the market share increase that you enjoyed in the second quarter, how do you think we should think about pricing going forward in the third and fourth quarters for passenger shuttle specifically?
Okay, Jean-Baptiste?
Yes. No, Nabil, not at all. We haven't increased our prices. We would be sad if people believed that we took the opportunity to make a profit on the situation. Clearly not. The price increase, it's an effect of the mix. The frequent travelers who normally pay very cheap prices, obviously during Q2, were not there. People who have a house in France and go to France every weekend, obviously didn't travel during this period. This has a negative impact on average price, normally, which wasn't the case in Q2. We didn't offer, also, the day trip ticket, which are very cheap, because there was no interest for this type of tickets. It's really a question of mix, which explains the price increase in Q2. In Q3, as Jacques said, we anticipate the same kind of price increase as we had in H1, overall, for the same reason.
We benefit from late bookings and a different mix than we have normally. We anticipate the same kind of price increase.
I would like very good news because the Dover Port has increased its fees by EUR 6 per crossing, which, of course, will be channeled to the trucks and cars. We are at ease, of course, for our yield management to extract the best value, as Jean-Baptiste explained.
Okay. Sorry, when you compare H1 with H2 and we talk about the overall shuttle price in the 6%, the mix is likely to be different in the second half. In H1, I'm assuming that a lot of the 6% is also coming from the fact that passenger shuttle were down much more than trucks. That's probably going to be the same thing in H2 as well, but probably less. Do you need higher pricing for passenger shuttle to get to the 6%? I'm not sure my question is clear.
No, it's quite clear. Just to clarify, of course, as you know, for trucks, it's a price which is negotiated for the full year, and we didn't change it. The only point is the fact that the increase of price in Dover Port is good because it will give a shift from ferries to the shuttle, and so a better traffic for trucks. Regarding passengers, I would say the major impact is related to the late booking, because I must recognize that we have less visibility on the traffic for the summer, even if it is quite good. The beauty is the fact that late booking gives a very higher price, which comfort the level of yield.
Nabil, on your calculation, I believe you are wrong. You are on the other way around. The weight of cars will be higher in Q3 than it was in Q2, so we need a lower price increase to get to the 6%. Lower price increase for cars to get to the 6%, because the weight is higher.
Mm-hmm. Got you. My second question, if I may, was on Eurostar. Can you shed some light on what's the situation right now in terms of capacity? How many trains do you have on Paris-London, Brussels-London, Amsterdam-London? If you can share, what would it tell you about how much capacity they intend to put back online over the coming months?
I must recognize that it is still unclear. We have a meeting in the coming days with Eurostar to understand what they intend to do. Of course, they have announced that they will reduce number of missions. I don't know if it is because really traffic is lacking, or if they want to, which in my view perhaps is the right explanation, they want to explain to their own staff that they will organize kind of reorganization. I do think that they want, of course, to increase their profitability at the time they are negotiating the merger with Thalys, the Green Speed project, which is quite good for us. You know that when a chief operating officer needs to explain that the team will suffer, he will try to explain that the situation is worse than anticipated.
I'm afraid that presently, Eurostar is in that mood, just to explain that times are very challenging and they will request a significant effort from their staff. I have not a clear view about what they intend to do. What I can say is the fact that I don't know why they would not to resume their traffic. The good news is the fact that they have a private investor in their equity, and I guess that such investor will push in order to have more traffic and things like that. What is key, I think, is the fact that when they decide to open a lot of services on the new route, London to Amsterdam, and more importantly Amsterdam to London, it will be a significant boost for the tunnels.
Having said that, you know that through various mechanisms. We have 1/3 of the Eurostar revenue, which is more or less a fixed cost. I must say that whatever their own difficulties and the fact that they have been obliged to have an interim loan, they pay without any delay what they have to pay through this fixed mechanism. I do think that what they are announcing, but it's my own feeling, is more or less related, like P&O or DFDS, to the way they want to cut salaries and staff more than to cut traffic.
Right. Maybe just to follow up on their commercial policy, have you been seeing them cutting prices to attract customers or not that much, considering what you just said about their agenda on restructuring? In other words, are you seeing airlines more aggressive than Eurostar or the other way around?
Well, airlines are out of the market. They have definitively no chance to compete presently. For Eurostar, from my best knowledge, they didn't change their fare. My daughter is living in London and coming each month in Paris, for the next travel, which is on Friday it is the same price, even slightly higher than it was previously, but not significantly. No, I think they don't change their tariffs. They are, I think, not really nervous regarding airline competitions, which is in much more troubled times. I think everything will continue. The key point is when they have a final agreement with their union regarding the restructuring of the Eurostar company, I think traffic will resume.
Okay. Final question, if I may, on covenants. I think in the management report, you mentioned that with the new forecast you have, you feel confident that you're not going to breach the covenants relating to the term loan, but equally, that you may not be able to comply with the other incurrence covenant ratio for the senior secured notes. Can you remind us what the covenants are? If you breach the second one, what are the restrictions that Getlink would suffer in that scenario? More broadly speaking, do you intend to get a waiver? Is the management working on that right now? Do you think that you'll see when it happens and you'll be in a better negotiating position if and when it happens?
Yeah, I like this scenario, but you are right to raise the point, and Mike will answer.
Hi, Nabil. I think the key point on this, when we're looking at covenants, is the cash position. As you can see, we had basically no cash outflow in the first half of the year. We've got cash to service our debt now to the end of 2021. I think that we can take a fairly relaxed position because debt service is not an issue. The Getlink covenants and incurrence covenants, you don't actually breach those covenants. It's only an incurrence when you actually look to do something. One is in terms of leverage, if we want to raise more debt. We have sufficient cash, we don't need to raise more debt. We have carve-outs to raise over EUR 600 million before that test comes into play, it's not an issue.
The other one, the debt service sort of comes into play if you want to pay a dividend. That, at this stage, it's not expected to be an issue at the end of December. If it is an issue, the fact is it won't be an issue in June next year because Q1 of this year drops out of the covenant calculation. We're in constant dialogue with our creditors. They're comfortable. We're in a lot different position to airports and airlines. There is no need for a waiver. If anything's required, we're pretty comfortable that we will get what is needed. There's a difference between a financial covenant and an incurrence covenant.
Mm-hmm. Sure. All right. Thanks a lot for all your answers.
Thanks, Nabil. Next question, please.
Thank you. Next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Three questions, if I may. Firstly, in terms of your OpEx in the second half of the year, you have the furlough that goes away. You're increasing the frequency of your service. Should we assume a flattish OpEx in the second half year-over-year or any move there? Should I go ahead with the other ones, or would you prefer to take it one at a time?
We can answer that one quickly. Yes. OpEx in the second half of the year, we project will be fairly flat, slightly below last year. Don't forget that last year, we had significant savings in OpEx in the second half of the year as well. We'll come in a bit below that. Just slightly below.
Understood. Thank you. The second one, I guess if I look at your EBITDA guidance for this year, this implies that in the second half, your EBITDA should be EUR 80 million lower year-over-year. If the OpEx is more or less flat, that implies that your revenues in the second half should be around 15% lower year-over-year. Can you give us a bit more granularity in terms of your thinking in the Shuttle versus Eurostar revenues in the second half? Just trying to evaluate a bit better the buffer that you have in your guidance.
Certainly. The assumptions we've taken for the second half of the year for traffic is that there will be a recovery in passenger shuttle traffic. As Jacques said, we probably won't get back to the levels of last year. Truck shuttle will probably remain below last year, but still at a reasonable level, but it's impacted by the economic downturn. Eurostar is probably where the recovery is going to be slower than on the passenger shuttle for the reasons that were evoked in the previous question. In terms of revenue, it's a slower recovery from Eurostar, with shuttle traffic and shuttle revenue coming back to levels slightly below where we were last year.
Understood. Thank you. Maybe the last one, coming back to an earlier question. If your car shuttle yield is around 25%-30% as it was in Q2, why shouldn't the yields in Q3 and Q4 be double digits? The weight of the car shuttle revenues is increasing meaningfully. Are there any other moving parts that we should keep in mind? The booking curve returns a bit to normal now in July and August, or people are still booking late?
Yeah, I think for summer you've got the late bookings. Going forward now, I think the two things now, during Q2, we maintained our services. Now customers are comfortable with our position that now during lockdown we maintain services. Also you stay with your car. People are realizing we're the safest way to travel. People now what we start seeing now is beyond summer, our bookings are picking up. Maybe we don't quite get the same impact of the late bookings because people are getting comfortable of booking ahead now. Now we're the best way to travel now. There isn't really an alternative.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from David Sarnoff from Kepler Cheuvreux. Sir, please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. I have two question. The first one is related to Getlink. When you said that you are expected to operate the commercial operation to start in early 2022, your assumption to. Okay.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question please.
Thank you. Next question comes from Martin Rostalf. Sir, please go ahead.
Good morning. Just a clarification on your dividend policy. You used to have a policy of increasing your dividend by EUR 0.05 per annum. Is that still in place? Considering that you abandoned your earnings target for 2022, that dividend policy also will have to be modified? Thank you.
Good question. We are very cautious. Of course, we want at the same time, of course, to serve dividends, but to keep a strong level of cash in order to face any crisis resuming, a thing like that. I have no idea what would be the board decision regarding the level of dividends, which could be paid in first term in December, and of course, the remaining part in June of 2021 as usual. I don't know what could be the level. What I can say is the fact that the board is definitively committed to resume a dividend payment. Having said that, it's quite clear that the dividend paid in 2021, based on the 2020 results, will of course be, let's say, related to the level of EBITDA and cash we can generate, so lower than it was in a normal year.
The second commitment of the board is to resume the dividend policy at the level of 2019 as soon as possible and to restart the EUR 0.05 increase as soon as possible. It's something which is, let's say, a very cautious approach, but a very strong willingness to resume what was the dividend policy, which has been very successful because we believe that we are working in order to deliver such dividend to our shareholders.
Well, thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question comes from Virginie Rousseau. Madam, please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. I have two questions. First one on OpEx reduction. I'd like to understand whether the EUR 16 million or EUR 17 million you are recording in H1 is only temporary or part of it will be structural. My second question is to Yann. Could you explain a bit the reasons why you decided to take the helm of Getlink? What you had in mind at that time? I know that the time has changed since that, and what will be your main priorities in the coming months?
Okay. First question, you.
On the OpEx. Yes. The OpEx, a lot of the reduction in the first half of the year was obviously due to the impact of the COVID. We've talked about the part-time activity, the furloughing impact. We've stopped those now from the first of July. We have reduced the number of missions and the number of shuttle missions. We continue to adapt our capacity to demand. There will be continued savings in that respect, particularly in terms of temporary staff and contractors. Others were, again, savings directly linked to the number of shuttles. The reduction of electricity costs and the like. Some were deferral of costs. We deferred a lot of our marketing costs. We're beginning to market now, obviously, launch marketing campaigns now as we get to try and attract passengers back.
Yes, certain of them are more long-term, if you like, as we adapt our capacity to demand. Others were one-off and obviously, the Activity-Based Pay and the furloughing is the prime example of that.
Next, Yann, what caused the decision to join the company at the COVID time?
Yeah. Before answering that, so what I'd said at the beginning is that I've been there for three weeks, spending most of my time on the field. I'm learning the company. I will continue to do so for the next weeks before, of course, I will decide on the strategy. Don't ask me for the moment any question about the future roadmap. It is too early. I have nothing to say on that today. On top of discovering the company, I'm also very in-depth into the operations. Jacques, of course, has put in place a strict control of our expenses in Q2 because of COVID, so we continue to do that. It's the discussion that you had just before. We need to be sure that operationally, we continue to offer the best service possible to our clients at the best cost.
To your question about why I joined the company, I could make a long answer, but the short one is when you look at the transportation market, and you know that I've been working in the infrastructure and transportation industry for many years, more than 20 now, and what is the most attracting asset on the market than the tunnel? It's fast, it's growing, so it ticks all the boxes for being the infrastructure of the future, and I want to be part of that future, and I see many opportunities with the team, so the future will be bright.
Thank you. I wish you long life.
Before we get a new question, I got one from David Feraud at Kepler. He's asking about ElecLink and the IGC. Are we nervous? Are we concerned with the absence of schedule from the IGC? How long do we need to start the operation when we get the green light for the installation of the cable?
Of course, it's a pity not to have such decision when we know that we have the very positive report from the French regulator, which we are waiting for the same level of advice on the British side. Yes, it's very frustrating, but having said that, as it is a 25 years investment, of course, we consider that we have to wait because we have no legal way to call a meeting from the IGC, and if we do that, I think reaction would be adverse, so no need. Having said that, the key point, you're right to raise the point, is the fact that we have still a strong relationship with our subcontractors. More or less when we have the green light, we need 10 weeks, which means two months and half, in order to resume the works.
Having said that, you know that the pulling of the cable was forecasted in two nights per week. We have always the possibility, depending on the traffic in the shuttle, but we are, let's say, this is a positive result of traffic less important than anticipated. We can add one week perhaps, which means three nights per week in order to pull the cable. We have the possibility to, let's say, slightly compensate the delays which are imposed by the lack of decision from the IGC. One, in a nutshell, of course, now I think the most reasonable is to, as we mentioned, is to consider that it could be operating early 2022.
Disappointing, sad news. We can do nothing. I would like to really highlight the fact that we answered all the questions which have been raised, which means that there is nothing which is a pending question from IGC and Safety Committee. That's the point.
A question on Eurostar, work at home. Do you expect Eurostar traffic to be impacted by work-at-home development that could reduce business trips?
Yann, you are a future user. What are your views?
Yes. We are definitely entering into a world which is different from the previous one. For sure this might have an impact, but if you look historically, when the telephone came on the market, it was a disruption which is much higher than the video conferencing system that we know today, and it never stopped people from meeting each other. It's even the contrary that's very interesting. When you look at the people that use the most, the new technologies to contact, they want at some point to meet. If you just look at very short-term COVID, et cetera, of course, there is an impact. There is no historical data to support the fact that on the mid to long term, it will have an impact. It can, on the contrary, continue to increase contact between people, which is at the core of economic development.
Yes, I don't know if it is a right benchmark, but if we look at terrorism attacks, three months after such attacks, of course, traffic is resuming. I don't know if we can consider that it could be the same for COVID because it's a more, let's say, confused threat. Yes, at a point in time, we believe that this kind of traffic will resume. Regarding U.K. statements, you have seen that Boris Johnson is asking people to go back to the offices in order to resume a kind of standard life. I think, like Yann, it will resume. Next.
Thank you. We have no more question by phone. Just a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. Next question comes from Charles Menatti. Sir, please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Just one question on the EBITDA guidance for 2020. That's obviously assuming no re-lockdowns. Could you maybe share your thoughts on that scenario? Because looking at now cases picking up, after summer, it is a possibility that there will be re-lockdowns in Europe, probably less severe than we've had, but still. I'm assuming you've done some also calculations within this scenario. Could you maybe share your thoughts on how prepared you are for a lockdown V2 after summer?
Yeah, you're right to consider this kind of possibilities. What we believe is a fact that if it is not a general lockdown, and more importantly, there is no quarantine, we are on the good side of the situation, and we will do better than first half, which of course, was really quite a serious discovering of this new world. Having said that, regarding the truck business, we do believe that the traffic which is going through the tunnel is really strongly resuming and will not be really impacted by a new lockdown because I do think that you know that we have a significant stream of e-parcels. That means the orders which are placed with Amazon and others.
If there is a new limited lockdown, it will increase once again this stream, which is a very positive one for our own business and great value for goods, so good pricing. No specific fears regarding such situation. I think the worst situation is a new quarantine, which would impact dramatically the passenger business. We made various assumptions. We worked on various scenarios, including, of course, as you mentioned, cost cuttings in order to deal with this kind of situation. What we can say, the guidance we are announcing is, as usual, something that we believe reasonable guidance, not conservative, but the best assumption we can make presently. It could be better. We hope it will be better. It could be worse, then we are ready because we have already identified what we can do if the situation is deteriorating.
We are much more ready than in February, March, in order to adapt the situation and to keep the best level of cash. At the end of the day, I must confess that it's the way I manage the company for the first half. I do think that Yann is in the same mood. What we need, and I might make comments, EBITDA is important, but what we need is to protect cash, and we are really fully aware of what we need if there is a deterioration of the crisis situation, of sanitary situation, to protect our cash, which is absolutely key. At the end of the day, confidence.
As always. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from Peter Witting, Société Générale.
Yeah. Hi there. Just one question from me. In the results statement, it says that the company is not expecting to breach any dividends, but in some of your stress scenarios, you see that there is a risk that you could breach some covenants. Would the company still resume paying dividends if you still see a risk that covenants could be breached?
Perhaps I will answer differently than Mike, because I am less expert on the covenants than him. I would say that if we are close to breach of covenants, it will mean that other competitors would disappear, because we are in a very better situation than ferries and airlines companies. Yes, it could be a catastrophic movie from Hollywood, but we don't think that we have such significant risk. As Mike said, we have very good relationship with rating agencies and the creditors, and we did not need to ask waiver for risk of breach of covenants in June. We had some informal discussions with some creditors and banks in order, at the time, a lot of companies were raising funds to consider if we need to have this kind of interim loan. The best advice of our banker has been, "Don't do that.
You definitely don't need that. No doubt at all. Once again, you have a very better situation than other companies. I think it's something which could happen in the second half. It's clear that, as I mentioned, the board commitment to resume dividends even at a reduced level as soon as possible is something which is quite clear for our own creditors, bankers, and others. We could, if unfortunately we are in a breach which could prevent us from serving dividends, keeping the level of cash EUR half a billion, which is not too bad. Let's say, we believe that we could manage a specific discussion in this unlikely situation, that to serve a reduced dividend and to have, at the same time, a waiver in order to do that. We are fully confident, no doubt about that.
It's something which is quite obvious due to the discussions you, Mike, and I had with creditors.
Thank you. Next question comes from Nicolas Mora. Sir, please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Just a few questions from me. The first one on the market share loss that you had in truck shuttle. Can you explain a little bit what's happening in terms of dynamics? We understand the ferries cut prices, passed on the full bunker surcharge drop. What are you seeing in July, which makes you comfortable that you will regain that market share, these three, four points of market share loss that you had in Q2?
Yeah.
Go ahead.
The answer, Nicolas, is quite easy. It's a decision we made to reduce the number of trucks per shuttle. Because you know that the drivers are regrouped in the Club Car at the head of the shuttle, and we decided very rapidly to implement a social distanciation, which means to limit the number of drivers in the Club Car. It was 27, I guess, something like that. Again, the 45, 50 drivers, which are used when there is a normal situation. We have decided to cut the capacity in order to offer the social distanciation to the driver, which has been fully appreciated by the hauliers. At the same time, ferries were trying, of course, to attract truck drivers.
I must say, and we claim the officials that matter, at the very intense peak time of the crisis, ferries allowed, against the maritime rules, drivers to stay in their trucks, which is absolutely forbidden for safety reasons. It was a kind of unfair competition. We claim the British government that this is not acceptable at all. Of course, this has been or ceased fortnight after we discovered the point, because we took time to discover the point. It was an unfair attractiveness from the ferries. We offer the same distanciation, but not keeping the driver in the truck, but offering less seats to the driver. It has been a positive decision.
I consider that it was the right assumption to make, and at the end of the day, when we see the recovery of the traffic now that we have the plexiglass within the Club Cars, I do think that it was the right decision, and this is the only explanation of the reduction of market share, the one point we lost in Q2. Next.
To date in July, your revenues are up year-on-year. To us, just doing a back-of-the-envelope computation, it implies that basically volume on shuttle is up 15%-20%. We understand you want to push a bullish tone, but this is particularly aggressive, no?
How do you get that, Nicolas? Why do we need a traffic up to get revenue at last year level?
Well, because if you strip out Eurostar is running at 25% capacity month to date.
On Eurotunnel shuttles only, not on Eurostar, obviously, Pierre.
Okay.
Eurostar, as I said, is still working on its recovery plan.
Sure. It's revenue at the Shuttle up month-to-date on the back of pricing and volume still down.
Yeah. Correct. At least for the three weeks of July.
Okay. Understood. Very last one on ElecLink. Could you shed a bit of light what you think the assets kind of revenue run rate would be right now in the current spread environment, which is quite depressed?
End of June, we made, of course, the classic impairment, which is based on the value of the gap between electricity pricing between U.K. and France, including the fact that the need of electricity, as you know, was significantly down and the price too. The new calculation we made regarding the profitability of the future business and the conclusion has been that we don't need any impairment at this stage due to the fact that ElecLink is still its value and likely the slightly impacts we have seen on the gap pricing is not so important that it could jeopardize the profitability of the business. When we are able to operate ElecLink, we are still in the mood of EBITDA between EUR 80 million- EUR 100 million per year.
Per year. Okay. This year would be markedly below that range?
This year, you mean 2020?
2020. If we were separating the spread, yes.
If you look at H1, the interesting thing is that, yes, prices of electricity have reduced, but the volatility has increased significantly. Our potential revenue for H1, I'm not sure. I didn't look in detail at the result because it's virtual, but the revenue we would have had in April and May was actually at the high end of the potential.
It was better than this time last year because of the volatility primarily, which ElecLink can actually benefit from volatility of prices between the two countries.
All right. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next.
Thank you. We have a new question from Nabil Ahmed. Sir, please go ahead.
Yeah. Sorry, I've got two follow-ups, actually. The first one is on cost-cutting. It looks like during the pandemic, the priority was given to the quality of service and preserving cash, which is perfectly understandable. Isn't that as well an opportunity for you guys to review your operations and potentially be maybe a bit more aggressive on structural cost-cutting? If that's the case, an ongoing review, could you shed some light on how much costs you expect to take out of the Fixed Link fee?
What I can say is the fact that it's one of the key priority for Yann. He can comment, as he said, he's discovering the businesses, but I know that mainly coming from the U.S., he has a very strong level of commitment on cash management and OpEx management. I'm sure that we will continue to find the way to make savings without deteriorating the offer and the business.
Yeah. On this one, I would say that COVID or not COVID, a company is well managed when it's a lean management. We are going to do everything that is possible to do to operate, to continue first to give the quality of service that is making our difference, that our core promise, and we do that, leveraging all the possibilities to be as lean and as efficient as possible in the way we manage our operations.
Okay. The last one, if I may, is a general question. I saw a lot of initiatives in the Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat in France to potentially support railway usage at the expense of other transportation means. I think they are talking of a significant investment plan. Is there anything concrete in France or with the European Green Deal that could affect your business in a positive manner? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on all that.
Yes. You're right, Nabil. We are looking very carefully to all the possibilities which could be raised either at French or European level. We have some ideas in order to do that, once again, to look at some innovative solutions, perhaps some new offers for significant traffic. What we can say is the reason why I mentioned the CSR as a key message. We do believe that everything which is done in order to support green businesses is quite good for us. If there are some specific mechanisms, subsidies, at least French or European or both, we will try to attract them. We have some ongoing projects we are working on. I must say, and sorry, I think it's earlier to explain what are our views. Yes, the answer is we look very carefully to extract the best value of this new green enthusiasm.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Thanks.
Thank you. We have no more questions. Bye for now.
Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, it has been a pleasure to answer to your question. It was a quite challenging time. We do believe that we did our best in order to protect the company, to protect staff and customers. It means that we believe, and I am back on the cash pile we have, we believe that we are all in arms in order to defeat the competition and to continue to be back at the previous levels as rapidly as possible. Yann is fully motivated to take part at this kind of, let's say, policy and programs back to good EBITDA level and serving dividends. Thank you for your comments. Thank you for your questions. Well, the team is still fully available to answer to any question, and I wish you to stay safe and to have a nice day. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.