Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Société Générale conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Slawomir Krupa, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. It has been an intense quarter with several important first steps in the execution of our strategic roadmap. As explained last September, we are, we shape our business model, make it simpler, more efficient, and more robust. In support of that strategy, in implementation of that strategy, we recently announced the planned disposals of our Equipment Finance and Moroccan activities, which will generate 40 basis points of capital in total at closing. Those came after the announcement in February, the streamlining project of the French head office. We have also officially launched Bernstein on April 1st, which creates a new global leader in cash equities and research.
At the same time, we have an operating performance, which is improving in line with our trajectory. Revenues are pretty stable compared to Q1 2023, on the back of an overall robust commercial performance for most businesses, Global Banking and Investor Solutions in particular, and an improvement in French NII by the high deposit beta in France. Claire will go through the details in a few minutes. On costs, they are down 1.5% since last year. Note that we have already accounted this quarter for a large part of the transformation charges for the year. This leads to a reported cost-to-income ratio of 74.9% Q1. Cost of risk is in line with guidance at 27 basis points for the quarter.
And overall, the group net income stands at EUR 680 million in Q1, and the quarterly growth is at 4.1%. On capital, the CET1 ratio is up by ten basis points versus previous quarter at 13.2%, post-distribution provision. Claire will now comment on the quarter's financial performance. Claire?
Thank you, Slawomir. So turning on slide five on Q1 2024 operating performance. In Q1, total revenues stood at EUR 6.6 billion. In France Retail, NII is up by 3%, that is Q4 last year. It's down 3% versus last year, mostly due to the remaining impact of short-term hedges, as well as deposit beta in French markets and outflows in same products. At the same time, the pillar recorded elevated financial fees on the back of record AUM for both private banking and insurance. Regarding [Foreign language ], it continues to acquire a high number of clients, with around 160,000 more clients acquired during the quarter than last year, which weighs on service fees on a year-to-year comparison.
On global banking and investor solutions, with more than EUR 2.6 billion revenues in Q1, the businesses once again performed very well this quarter in a less conducive environment. Revenues are down by only EUR 140 million, compared with a very strong performance in Q1 last year, particularly in Global Markets. Last, international retail banking contribution is solid, and revenues increased by 8% in Mobility and Leasing Services, plus integration of LeasePlan, which represents EUR 417 million additional revenues in Q1. On costs, operating expenses land below EUR 5 billion. They are down by -1.5%, that is Q1 last year, with various one-offs in opposite directions. Excluding these items, the underlying cost base increases by a moderate +3.4% versus last year, a level well below inflation.
This rise is mostly related to the increase in compensation, notably due to the salary increase validated in 2022, which came into effect on April 1st last year. Let's now move on the next slide on the cost of risk, slide six. At group level, the cost of risk remains low at 27 basis points, in line with guidance, despite the impact of specific market size in French Retail. For the quarter, the cost of risk amounts EUR 400 million, of which EUR 499 million in stage three, and a reversal of EUR 99 million, stage one and two, mainly related to the decrease of the Russian exposure offshore. The NPL ratio remains low at 2.85%, plus application of IFRS 5 and entities for sale. The net coverage ratio is high and slightly up at 82%.
Last, provisions on stage one and assets remains elevated at EUR 3.3 billion, plus application of IFRS 5 norm on assets classified as held for sale. Regarding capital, slide seven. The core Tier 1 ratio increases to 13.2% at the end of March. It's around 300 basis points above MDA. The quarterly earnings generate 17 basis points of capital this quarter before distribution, and the organic RWA decreased this quarter for an equivalent of 8 basis points, in line with our strategy towards the more capital light model. Regulatory impact accounts 9 basis points this quarter. All in all, risk-weighted assets amount to EUR 388 billion at the end of March, and the other capital ratio remains comfortably above requirements. I will now comment slide eight.
We can now dig in into the business performance, starting with French Retail on slide 10. Within SG Network, loans outstanding decreased by 5% compared with last year. The activity with corporate remained good, with loans up +1.2% versus Q4 last year, excluding state grant loans, still driven by short-term loans. On individual, home loan production is rebounding to quarterly levels, doubling in Q1 compared to previous quarter, but admittedly a low level. On deposits, outstanding are stable, this is Q4, but with a continued shift from sight deposits to both interest-bearing deposits and financial savings. In private banking, AUM reached a record level of EUR 149 billion at the end of March, as it has upped 6% compared with last year, thanks to robust inflows of EUR 2.1 billion in the first quarter.
On insurance, life insurance outstanding are up 6%, that is last year, to a record EUR 141 billion. Gross inflows amount to EUR 6.1 billion, which represents an increase of 68% compared with Q1 last year. On protection insurance, premium increased by 4% versus last year, driven by P&C premiums. Let's now have an update on the evolution of the NII in French Retail, slide 11. As expected, the NII has further increased by 3% in Q1 compared to previous quarter, with still an impact of EUR 217 million of the short-term hedging, which will mature in Q2. Deposits are stable overall, but with a shift from sight deposits to interest-bearing deposits and savings. Given the Q1 deposit data and client behavior, we are today at the lower range of our projections and guidance.
At the same time, loans outstanding are down by around 1% versus Q4, mostly driven by home loans, with overall a slight increase in margin by -1.5 basis points. Moving on to next slide, 12. During the first quarter, BoursoBank continued to acquire new clients at high pace, reaching 6.3 million clients at the end of March 2024, with a term which remains low and which is decreasing. In terms of client satisfaction, BoursoBank remains number one in France for the fifth consecutive year, with the highest net promoter score.
On the commercial front, assets under administration further improved by +14% versus Q1 2023, up to EUR 8 billion, thanks to a strong increase in deposits and a record organic growth collection in life insurance, with a share of unit-linked products that remains very high at 46%. With regard to loans, like in SG Network, we note a rebound production, both in home loans and consumer loans, but also from low points. Let's now move to the financial performance on slide 13. Total revenues are down -2.5% versus Q1 last year, and costs are around -6%, including around EUR 80 million of transformation charges. At EUR 247 billion, the cost of risk is impacted this quarter by the transfer to default of specific market funds.
Excluding those funds, the cost of risk in France would have been around 27 basis points in Q1. Overall, the reported group net income in the pillar amounts to EUR 27 billion in Q1 2024. Turning to global markets and investor services, slide 14. Starting with global markets, it was a solid quarter with revenue at EUR 1.6 billion, down -7% in comparison to a high Q1 last year. Equity activities performed very well in Q1, with revenues up 3% at EUR 870 million, benefiting notably from supportive rise in the equity market. In addition, the demand in derivative products remained strong in Q1. On fixed income, revenues landed at EUR 733 million in Q1, down compared with last year, which was a record first quarter for fixed income for the last 10 years.
Q1 performance is solid in absolute terms, as this is around 9% above average performance between 2019 and 2023 for the first quarter. Momentum is still positive in investment solutions, while flow and hedging were impacted by lower volatility on rates. Security Services revenues are decreasing by 23% on a reported basis, but only by 5% if we exclude the exceptional items in Q1 2023, notably linked to the revaluation of our holding in Europe. Regarding Financing and Advisory, slide 15. This is the best first quarter ever, with a strong performance in both Global Banking and Advisory, and Transaction Banking. Revenues are up 3% at EUR 859 million Q1. In detail, Global Banking and Advisory posted once again a solid performance, with an increase by 2% in revenues.
The activity benefited from very strong momentum in asset-backed products and a good level of activity in natural resources. In Investment Banking, it's a mixed bag performance, with a strong contribution of Debt Capital Markets, while volumes remain low in M&A and Equity Capital Markets. In Transaction Banking, the performance remains strong, with revenue up 8%, thanks to both still favorable market conditions and a very active commercial activity. Overall, GBIS has delivered once again an excellent quarter. Slide 17. Revenues stand at EUR 2.6 billion in Q1, down only -5% compared with last year, while costs decreased by 15% at EUR 1.8 billion. This translates to a reported cost-income ratio of 67%, with costs evolving positively quarter-on-quarter, notably due to the further reversal of provisions of the Russian exposure.
GBIS delivered overall a very strong quarter, with a RONE 19%. Let's now turn to international retail banking on slide 17. Business dynamics remained solid in both regions. In Europe, loans were up by 6% versus Q1 last year, at constant change in perimeter, and deposits by 9%. In Africa, performance remained dynamic across regions, with a 5% increase in loans and deposits overall. We can, for instance, highlight a 15% growth in loans in Ivory Coast, or the increases comprised between 15% and 20% of loans and deposits in both Algeria and Senegal. Overall, international retail banking delivered solid level of revenues in Q1, up by 3% compared with last year at constant change and perimeter. Turning now to mobility and leasing services, and in particular on Ayvens.
Revenues are up by 14% versus last year, following the integration of LeasePlan, which is progressing as planned with, for instance, the first revenue synergies crystallizing for a total amount of EUR 20 million in Q1. Contrary to last year, the revenue base is impacted by a limited impact of fleet valuation and reduction in depreciation costs, while they accounted for EUR 174 million of revenue in Q1 last year. From a commercial standpoint, margin, margins are stabilized and even slightly up compared to Q4 2023, at 522 basis points. These are the initial benefits of the actions we initiated to improve margins over time. Regarding used car sales, we are still expecting a normalization of the market in line with our guidance.
In Q1, the result per unit remained high at EUR 1,661 on average, excluding the impact of reduction in depreciation costs and PPA. When it comes to Consumer Finance, commercial performance remains subdued due to the inflationary and uncertain economic context. Fees are improving, whereas margin is still negatively impacted from, by the impact of the back of the usual rate on the loans granted since the second half of 2023. Last, despite a good commercial performance, revenue in equipment finance slightly decreased by 2% versus Q1 last year. Overall, on slide 19, international retail mobility and sell- and leasing services contributed to the group net income for EUR 272 million Q1, with a cost-income ratio of 62.9%, including around EUR 70 million of transition- transformation charges. I will let...
And to conclude on the financial performance, let's now on slide 20. This quarter, the corporate center is impacted by two main specific items. First, the accounting of transformation charges for a certain amount of around EUR 50 million. Second, a negative impact of EUR 84 million in net profits or losses from other assets, mostly linked to the announcement of the sale of the Moroccan activity. Overall, the net contribution in Q1 for the corporate center is around 300 million, minus EUR 300 million. I will now leave the floor to Slawomir for an ESG and then conclusion.
Thank you, Claire. A few words on ESG before closing. That is, an important central part of our strategic roadmap. Once again, we are here delivering on our agenda. We continue to decarbonize our portfolios with another target today on the aviation sector, using the Pegasus Guidelines methodology, which was co-launched by in support of the transformation of this sector. We continue to work in partnerships selected by clients for our capacity to deliver expertise and technical value in a milestone transactions, such as Northvolt, the $5 billion project finance to mass produce the world's greenest battery. We have also closed the landmark synthetic risk transfer transaction in Romania, part of the IFC agreement, cooperation agreement, that we signed earlier this year, freeing up the capital to reallocate on projects with strong developmental impact.
Lastly, and a testament to our ESG leadership and capacity to transform, we continue to be recognized across the board by new awards, including as Best Bank for Sustainability and Best Bank for Transition Strategy. Last, you will find on slide 23, our now recurring slide, showing our progress towards our 2026 financial targets. And I suggest we now launch the Q&A, and, please stick to our usual rule of two questions per person. The floor is yours.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone keypad. Please ask your question in English. The first question is from Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Just a couple of questions from my side. First of all, on the capital build and the disposals, can you give us an update now, where you are? I mean, you have announced two deals, now we can see kind of a direction. What is the rationale, for example, to sell Morocco and keep the rest of the businesses? Can you explain us what's the dynamics there? What's the strategy of having the other markets there? And then there's also discussions about other businesses in Central Europe. So just really to understand what's the rational synergies to keep those businesses at this stage.
And secondly, as on French Retail, so you in slide 11, you mentioned the increase of 3% NII, and at the lower end of the range of projected scenarios. I mean, do you commit still to 2024 NII, at least equal to 2022? And, what do you see in the rest of the year in terms of, moving parts, on liability margin, asset spreads and volumes? Thank you very much.
Thank you. Morning. I'll take the first one, and I'll let Claire take the second one. In terms of the capital and the disposals and strategies, so we have said that we will constantly, continuously review our business portfolio to make sure that it matches not only on a spot basis, at a particular review time, but also continuously, the strategic agenda of the group in terms of market positioning, in terms of ROE, in terms of ROE versus cost of equity, in terms of pay risk, and in terms of synergy. And so it's a process which is going to last forever, so to speak, and where we will continuously reassess the performance of our entire portfolio
And then, when we make decisions about a particular asset that we believe will be a better asset somewhere else than within our portfolio, we carry out discussions, and then, when we reach agreement, which makes sense for everybody, for us, for the buyer, for the teams, for the clients of these businesses, then we move forward. So you should not now try to infer from what we haven't done to date, what we would like to do, right? I hope my point here is clear. So we have done these two things as part of a very clear strategy that I think we talked about many times, and we will continue to do our job, right?
The job of any manager, to consider performance of the business portfolio. Right now, nothing to be inferred from what we haven't done. In terms of the French Retail, NII guidance, and the moving parts, et cetera, Claire, please.
So there were two questions in your question, one related to the outstanding and trends, the other related to the guidance. So as previously indicated, I'm sorry, last quarter, customer behavior is still evolving in France, and we see a continued shift from stocks to interest-bearing deposits or outstanding financial savings. In addition, loan outstanding slightly decreased at Q4, -0.9%, mostly on home loans, with an overall slight decrease in margin, -1.5 basis points. Regarding this trend, we see a rebound in production, in notably home loans, with for sure, a lag effect on margin, considering the cap we had, we have in the past. We had in the bank book regarding interest rate.
This being said, given the Q1 deposit data and client behavior, we are today at the lower range of our projection and of our guidance.
Next question?
The next question is from Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll go back to French details for my first question. Just to make sure that we fully understand, to be at the low end of the projected scenarios, in my understanding, it would mean being at 2022 level. Is my understanding correct? And then the second question would be on dividend. At the moment and, you know, buyback. SocGen is provisioning 0.32, which is equal to 50%. And I think part of the plan was to start at 40, or, you know, the low end of the guidance and then move up to 50.
I'm wondering, are you provisioning at 50 because these are the rules, you need to provision on the high end of the, the guidance, as ECB mandates, or, you know, given that this, quite well, and, you know, you might be ahead of schedule on CET1, you could consider already doing 50, as of 2024. Appreciate it's only Q1, but, you know, we care. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Hi. I'll let Claire take the French Retail question. And on the distribution, so very clearly, we're provisioning 50%, because this is a regulatory requirement. When you have a range as part of your distribution policy, you have to provision during the year until the final decision is made by the board. I'm sorry, at the higher end of your range. And strategically, the distribution policy is unchanged, and so it's indeed 40%-50%, and it's going to be based, the decision is gonna be a board decision, obviously, early 2025. The board will consider all the facts at the time, both for 2024 in terms of forward-looking trajectory in terms of capital. More to come, but in January, Claire?
Yes. So indeed, the guidance was, rebound and upper the level of 22. So given the Q1 deposit beta client behavior, I did already comment, we are today at the lower range of this guidance and of our projections.
The next question is from Guillaume Tiberghien, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Two questions on my side. Number one is on the cost in French Retail, excluding resolution fund, excluding IFRIC, and excluding CTA. If my math is correct, they looked at 4% year-over-year, which seems quite high, given that we are meant to have the synergies from Crédit du Nord. So I just wanted to check my math and maybe if you can tell us what to expect at your end. The second one is on Bourso Bank. I know you don't give the revenues, but maybe can you give us a feel as to what to expect on the fee line growth in 2025 versus 2024, to reflect the fact that Boursorama is chasing customers a bit less. And then a tiny one on RWA development, if I may. You say you created eight bps.
Is that from lower volumes, or are you buying CDS, or are you doing securitization? Can you do a lot more on that front? Thank you.
Thank you very much. Hi. Looks like three questions, but we're going to make a little exception here.
Thank you.
So, Claire, on cost in French Retail and RWA, and Philippe on BoursoBank. Claire?
Yeah. So regarding costs from the French Retail, your math are okay. The increase is mainly driven by the salary increase. As a reminder, the salary increase in Q1 that went before is related to the salary increases we granted one year ago at the end of 2022, which were slightly in line with the 5%. So as a whole, compared to this salary increase granted end of 2022, the cost base increase is lower than this salary base. And by the end of the year, year-on-year, we are at a low digit increase, no?
RWA, Claire, so the decrease in the organic-
Exactly. So the main reasons for is in RWA in Q1 are twofolds. First, the implementation of our strategy towards a more asset-light model, and notably, we put in place various mechanisms, such as asset distribution, hedging solutions, risk transfer transactions. Second, we have a nonlinear consumption of businesses, which could lead to temporary under consumption, which is the case within one, notably on GLBA and French Retail. So for the guidance, for the, regarding the guidance and for 2024, we keep an unchanged guidance, which is a limited organic RWA growth. ... which is stay below 1% versus 2023.
Philippe, BoursoBank?
Yes, good morning. So regarding the evolution of the fees in the first quarter 2024 compared 2023, and excluding the acquisition cost, the fees are up by 10%, and mostly driven by the service commissions.
Sorry, you said 10% year-on-year-
Yeah.
For French Retail and Boursorama?
No, no, it's for Boursorama. I'm sorry, it's for BoursoBank. So the question was French Retail?
I'm trying-
I'm sorry.
I'm trying to understand what tailwind on fee growth we will get from Boursorama stopping to chase new customers next year.
Okay. So, year-on-year, so the service fees excluding Boursorama, so for FTBA, they're flat.
Okay.
Next question?
The next question is from Delphine Lee, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to check two things. On your capital, just to confirm the headwinds that are still to come in terms of trim and obviously there's the impact of the disposals. But also checking on the ECB on-site inspection, if you know you have more visibility on if there is going to be any kind of impact from that. And my second question is on global markets. Is the guidance still EUR 5.1 billion of revenues for global markets? And I would assume that does not include Bernstein. If you could just clarify that. Thank you.
Thank you. Good morning. I'll take the global markets question and leave Claire with the first one on capital and headwinds, revenue headwinds. So on global markets, so the guidance is 4.74-5.3, excluding Bernstein, with the structuring of the Bernstein transaction, final structuring of the Bernstein transaction, it's roughly EUR 100 million more in terms of that initial interval, if you will. So this strategic long-term guidance remains unchanged for 2024. We don't adjust the guidance. Let's say that, given the performance of Q1, everything else being equal, but as you know, you know, it's a lot to say, but everything else being equal, obviously, with the advance that we made in Q1, you know, we're seeing this thing land close to the higher end of the guidance. Claire?
So regarding regulatory impacts on the capital, this quarter, we have a 9 basis points impact. This being said, and regarding the guidance, as demonstrated in 2023, where we had a 15 basis point impact, that is a 50 basis point guided. And as we reminded in Q4, it's making a potential regulatory impact is uncertain, both in terms of timing and amounts. So we now prefer to stick to end of year guidance, which is for this year, around 13, quarter one ratio, and to stick to this target rather than guiding on notably regulatory, moving parts.
Next question?
The next question is from Sharath Kumar, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. So I have two, please. So firstly, on global market costs, again, if I exclude bank taxes and restructuring costs, I see underlying costs about 2% lower. So can we expect this strong momentum to sustain, or should we expect some sort of a catch-up in the last quarter, but given variable cost provisioning? So that's the first one. Second one is on cost of risk. We saw a minor uptick to 27 basis points, essentially coming from French Retail, and we saw some news on specific French files in the press. So do you expect this to be an ongoing exercise, or how confident are you of remaining in the 25-30 basis points guidance this year as well as going forward? Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Good morning. I'll take the first one on the global markets cost, and Stéphane Landon, our Chief Risk Officer, is gonna give you a color on your second one. So on the first one, you're right, and very simple answer is, there is no particular, you know, material change in terms of trends, expected. We are in GBIS, like in the other all other parts of the group, investing to continue to decrease the structural cost base. But let's say, there's no particular strong dynamic to expect, other than the one you see. Stéphane?
... Thank you. Well, as you explained, the cost of risk, the uptick on cost of risk is mainly coming from a few specific files in the French market. Overall, we do not see any degradation of our portfolio. And we expect the cost of risk for the year to remain in the range between 25 basis points and 30 basis.
Next question.
The next question is from Matt Clark, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Good morning. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, on the French Retail banking net interest income, I'm sorry if I've missed it, could you give us the number for the fourth quarter short-term hedge impact? So the comparable number to the EUR 275 million for the first quarter that you gave. And then secondly, with respect to all the disposals that have been announced, you've given us the CET1 impact of those, but I don't think you've given us the foregone earnings impact. So, I guess, could you give us the foregone earnings impact of those announced disposals? And also, maybe talk about how you will use the capital that's been released, or when you expect to communicate on how that released capital will be used. Thank you.
So I'll take the second one, and I'll leave the floor to Claire for the first one. In terms of the disposals, I mean, the part about how we're gonna use the capital, and Claire is gonna give you the detail on the pro-- on revenues. But in terms of how we're gonna use the capital, basically, think about it in very simple terms. We have a guidance in terms of where we wanna land, and both for 2024, but also in 2026, post Basel IV, and this is what matters.
And in terms of the capital that will be generated at closing by these disposals, it will be part, as we said, of the CMD of the capital build-up and making sure that we have also ample buffer. This is the whole strategic underlying thinking about it, ample buffer to deal with all kinds of headwinds. And of course, at some point, if we reach levels that are higher than our targets, we'll by then communicate on what we would do with this extra capital, should we end up with extra capital versus our target. Claire, on both the French Retail, but also the foregone revenues, earnings of the disposal.
A lot of figures on my side. Regarding the impact of the disposals on the top line, regarding Congo and Chad, it was very limited. In Q1 last year, for example, it was EUR 20 million. For the six subsidiaries that are also on the African side, it's also very limited. For example, for the full year, it was EUR 166 million. Regarding equipment finance, revenues in 2023, it was around EUR 0.4 billion. Regarding Morocco, in terms of revenues, it was around EUR 0.5 billion. Regarding costs, it was EUR 0.2 and EUR 0.3 for equipment finance and Morocco. This is all the figures.
Regarding the impact of the short-term hedges, so your question was related to Q4 2023. The impact was exactly EUR 404 million. In Q1, the impact is two hundred and seventy, exactly two hundred and sixty-five. We still are expecting, I'm sorry, an impact now for Q2, we guide in on an after it's over.
Okay. Thank you. Could you just give us a single figure for the net profit contribution of all the disposals that have been announced so far? When you add it all up, what does it come to, in terms of yeah, the profit contribution that you'll lose?
So what I just told you is that regarding equipment finance the figures were 0.4 revenues, 0.2 costs, 0.1 net income. And to give you the full picture, 8.2 regarding RWA. Regarding Morocco, NBI 0.5, cost 0.3, DOI 0.2, net income EUR 60 million, six zero, plus minority interest, and RWA 8.
Okay.
Is that okay?
Thank you.
The next question is from Azzurra Guelfi, Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I have two questions. One is on the mobility division. It seems that we have turned the corner there, and there was no additional negative surprise. Is it fair to assume that from this division, we will have one of the highest, revenue growth in the coming quarter, in addition to French Retail, of course? And that from, the current profit of around EUR 140 million, we will build up on this in, coming quarters, if you can elaborate a little bit on that. ... And the second one is on the provisioning, the stage two and stage one that you showed. They went down quarter-on-quarter. I don't know if most of it is related to perimeter changes, so if you can give us some color on that. Thank you.
I'll take the second one, 'cause it's a very simple one. I'll let Pierre Palmieri talk about mobility. In terms of the provisioning, S 1 to S 2, it is only related to the perimeter change.
Yeah. Concerning the mobility sector, especially Ayvens, we see that, you know, our results are in line with the guidance in terms of first month margin, that is slightly picking up to Q4. So there's stabilization of the margin. And second, in terms of the used car sales, where we're given a range in 1,600, and we are at 1,661, therefore, at the higher range end of the range given. So we consider that we can maintain the guidance that was given by Ayvens for 2024, which means an increase includes an increase in the net earning assets and therefore an allocation of RWA. As was mentioned during the CMD, where Ayvens, one of the business units that would benefit from an increase of RWA.
On the S 1 S 2, there's just to be very precise, there's a, you know, limited also impact in terms of the Russia exposure, which obviously is going down and without any surprises. It's a EUR 25 million on Russia. That's the other impact, but other than that, it's perimeter. Next question?
The next question is from Jacques-Henri Gaulard, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone, obviously, too. First of all, on the hedges, Claire, could you actually sign us a piece of paper, according to which we're gonna be done, after the second quarter? More seriously, the question would be more in terms of guidance, I think, at least in my numbers, I was not expecting that much. So what went wrong in the guidance versus what you gave us at the end of last year, and the fact that this is still carrying on by quite a big amount? And basically, are you, nonetheless, quite comfortable about generally your NII guidance in France? That's the first question. And the second question, like my colleague and friend, Guillaume, I've done some calculation as well, but not on the cost, on the revenue.
If you maintain your higher than 5% or 5%, revenue growth, that would mean that for the rest of the year, your revenues will have at group level to kick in at about EUR 6.65 billion, which is high, which is what you reported this quarter with a, with a good investment bank tailwind, and, also what you've reported in Q1. But are we nonetheless comfortable that, you know, we'll be able to actually get there, those remaining quarters? Thank you.
So I'll leave some of the answer to Claire, but I have to admit, I'm not 100% sure about the beginning of your question, right? Was your guidance question about NII in general or about the hedge?
Well, obviously, the two are linked. So,
Of course.
It was more about the hedge. So it was more about the hedge first, and then as a result, you know, I understand-
All right.
I appreciate what you're saying about the lower end of the guidance and all that. This is completely different, right? It's, it's more confidence about the, the sense of trouble, more than being very precise. Thank you.
All right. All right. Claire, please, and on the revenues as well.
No, I'm still comfortable with the guidance we gave by the end of last year. I think we gave for sure rounded figures, it was zero point something billion euro, and we stick to it. It's once again 265 for Q1, and the rest for Q2. At least no surprise, neither on our side nor regarding the guidance.
On the revenues, yeah, we do maintain this guidance. It's, again, partly, you know, largely actually mechanical because of the improvement in the French Retail, because of the expiry, so to speak, of the hedges drive. And yes, we this guidance at this point, knowing that again, overall markets should also land at the higher ends of the guidance, as I said earlier.
Thank you.
Next question?
The next question is from Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So, in French Retail, and I know it's a, a bit of a follow-up to, what Jacques- Henri just asked, but so if I work through what you said for the first quarter and the second quarter on the short-term hedges, we're gonna be a little bit above EUR 400 million in the first half. At the capital markets day, you said EUR 300 million. I know there's, you know, a lot of rounding in here, but just should we be penciling in some tailwinds in the second half, on the short-term hedges? And then in markets, so obviously cost performance was pretty good in Q1, cost income ratio is 68%, I think. So just how do we think about that through the second year? I'm sorry, through the rest of the year. And just a very short clarification.
I think in the answer to Delphine's question earlier, you said the guidance range for markets was 4.7-5.3. But I think at the CMD, you said it was 4.9-5.5 on slide 37. So I'm just checking what I've got mixed up between those two data points.
All right. So I'll take the global markets and let Claire comment on the first question. On the global markets, so the strategic, you, you're right, so I'll clarify. I referred to the historical guidance on global markets being 4.7-5.3, which indeed we upgraded at the CMD, with mostly the way we were looking at the integration of Bernstein down the road. But as we restructured the way the firm works with two separate subsidiaries, one of them being integrated, the other one which is not directly integrated, this translates into something which is, let's say, closer to 4.8-5.4. And this is why and that's, that's what I had in mind. And, with, as I said, something which, again, everything else being equal, looks like higher of the guide- of the guidance for this year. Claire?
So regarding short-term hedges, by the end of the Q4, we had gained indeed EUR 0.4 billion, and the breakdown per quarter is the one provided, I think, in the slide NII, which is EUR 265 million exactly in Q1, this quarter, and still EUR 150 million expected in Q2, and after that it's over.
Okay, thanks. That's really helpful.
Next question?
The next question is from Anke Reingen, with RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. The first is just on the disposals again. Can you confirm the earnings impact was included in the guidance for 2026 at the capital markets stage? Because from memory, you were saying that already makes assumptions on disposals. And then secondly, on your on your core tier one ratio guidance for year-end the 13%. I mean, obviously there are a number of moving parts, but does that make any assumptions on additional disposals in order to understand what could be upside and downside scenario? Thank you very much.
Thank you. I'll let Claire answer both questions. Thank you.
So regarding the 0%-2% guidance on revenue, we had explained at the capital market day that, yes, it did impact assumptions related to disposal. This is for your first question. For your second question, our end of year quarter one guidance is our best estimate right now regarding our quarter one, considering the fact that the disposal has an impact on quarter one at closing. We have no, by construction, additional disposal assumption, and that is the end of your quarter on top of the one already announced.
Thank you.
Next question?
The next question is from Sam Moran-Smyth, Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions too, please, both on revenue. So on French Retail, in other income, appreciate there's a lot going on on that line, but, you know, looking back, it doesn't seem to be any recognizable pattern to those results over the last kind of 8 quarters. So, you know, should we, should we continue to expect this to be around EUR 200 million on a full year basis? Or is it different? You know, just anything you could provide to help us model that number would be helpful. And then on global markets and the impact on the group, appreciate this is a small follow-up to Chris's question, but you've, in the quarter, reiterated your more than 5% revenue growth for the year.
Last quarter, you said that was based on global markets revenues of EUR 5.1 billion. Is that still the case in that assumption, based on your kind of slight change to the guidance? Thanks very much.
I'll leave the first question to Philippe. On the global market, if I understood you well, but please, the line wasn't great. So if you want me to follow up, please ask. So again, the guidance was the one we gave, and we are tracking higher than the guidance for the year, even just for seasonality, and this is why we expect, but again, everything else being equal, to reach the higher end of the guidance, which would be 5.4. Is that answering your question?
Yeah, just perhaps a small follow-up. I'm just trying to understand if, if... So in the Q4 slide, you said that your 5% revenue growth at group level in 2024 was based on global markets revenues of 5.1.
Yeah.
If you're now saying that-
Yeah.
They should be at the higher end, so more like 5.4. Appreciate your guidance is for more than 5%. Should we feed that through directly, or are there other things offsetting? Like, are there other divisions where you're now expecting less revenues, I guess, is the question. Thank you.
... Yeah, yeah. So yeah, it was indeed very clear, thanks. It was indeed 5.1, and, yeah, as you can see in this particular quarter as well, and you do have a contrasting performance between the businesses for the reasons that we described. And so, yes, down the road, part of what the global markets are going to, again, everything else being equal, are going to deliver in terms of overperformance versus that initial guidance, is going to be offsetting some of the underperformance, some of the headwind details. Yeah. Philippe?
Yes, so regarding overall income in FRPBI, so these revenues are mostly composed of NDI related to specialized subsidiaries or investment in private equity, product leasing or real estate. So the decrease between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year is mostly explained by two components. The first one is it's a base effect linked to the merger of the two networks, Société Générale and Crédit du Nord in the first quarter of last year. So it was positive last year, so it's a negative base effect for this year. And the second component is seasonality effect from some volatility in the contribution of the subsidiary. So it is, it is a low point, but it is absolutely not a year later.
Thank you. Next question.
Next question is from Pierre Chédeville, CIC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I have one question regarding insurance business, which seems very, very dynamic this quarter. And when you see the dynamism of the business, I was a little bit surprised by the increase in terms of revenue. We could expect a better, I would say, translation of the economic performance in the banking. I know accountability, I know it's a little bit difficult in insurance, but if you could give us a little bit color about that. And I wanted also to know, if you would like, we see that you're good in protection, but I have seen some figures from your competitors, which are much higher.
I wanted to know if you were specifically developing this part of the business. I'm talking about individual and collective protection. And lastly, regarding insurance, could you give us the combined ratio and the in P&C and the Solvency II ratio? Thank you.
So, Philippe?
I'm sorry. So regarding the first part of the question, yes, it's a very good quarter regarding gross inflows, net inflows, and therefore increase of the outstanding. So the impact on the revenues will come in the coming quarters, in the coming months. You know, it didn't happen immediately. So that's going to impact the revenue for the future because, of course, most of the fees are related to the outstanding. So that's the first part of the answer. The second part of the answer, and yes, we are making progress in protection, but we are still lagging on this one, and we have to increase our market share.
We know that we are still, to a certain extent, that's good news, a growth potential on this area. So, it's definitely at the heart of our insurance companies. So the goal is not to be to increase the rate of client equipment with other clients in the retail, in the retail network. And we have a lot of action plans in progress, you know, make sure that we have the right offer, and I think that's the case, to continue to do to digitalize the client domain, and to continue to to train the sales force. Regarding the solvency ratio, it's above 200%, so slightly lower at the end of 2023, but still very high.
Regarding the combined ratio, which is basically the sum of the claims and expenses divided by the premiums for everybody, that this is a ratio we don't communicate. But it's we score well within the French market on this ratio.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question.
Next question is from Joseph Dickerson, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks. Most of my questions have been answered, but could you just talk about—If I look at your in the French business, retail, private banking, and insurance, if I look at the business net of the insurance, it lost money on a pre-tax basis because the cost of risk was EUR 247 million, which was a step up, and I think you referenced in your commentary something about entry into default of specific market files. I guess, how do we think about the, you know, run rate of that number? Is that more of a one-off that was unique to the first quarter, or something that we should start to interpolate a little bit further in terms of cost of risk? Thanks.
Thank you. Stéphane, our Chief Risk Officer?
Yeah. No, what we have seen is that the normalization of the cost of risk overall on French network, and in addition, some specific files will, on top of that, quite high level of provision specifically on these files. So yes, it is exceptional, but the overall cost of risk has normalized over the quarter.
Thank you.
Great, thank you.
Next question?
The last question is from Kiri Vijayarajah, HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone. Just a couple of questions on my side. So firstly, just coming back to the capital and the end 2024 target of 13%. I appreciate you don't want to give guidance for every single quarter, but can we infer from what you're saying that all of the trim, all of the on-site inspections, all of that still dealt with, you know, this year, so 40 basis points or so, I think still to come. And then, so for 2025, it's really just Basel IV we need to factor in, in terms of, the capital planning. So just some clarity there.
And then second, given the trading incident you had in Hong Kong, I wonder if there's any consequences more broadly that we need to think about, maybe some sort of op risk or market risk add-on that might be there in the pipeline, or maybe some sort of fine even. So just your preliminary thoughts on that, please. Thank you.
Hello, I'll take the second question, and then let Claire comment on the first one. So I mean, no, not at all. I mean, it's an incident which had no impact on the group, no impact on clients, and which was identified by our control framework, and which was dealt with swiftly and like with the continuous improvement we're in, generally speaking, across the board on all our processes and controls, et cetera. We obviously have analyzed the incident and made adjustments and improvements like we do all the time, so to speak. So, no, nothing on that front. And Claire, on the first question?
Yes, so regarding regulatory headwind, as a reminder, we had guided on the 35 basis points impact this year. On top of that, we have, as most of our peers, several on-site inspections on an ongoing basis. So we stopped guiding on regulatory guidances going forward, considering this uncertainty from on the outputs from these on-site inspections. Regarding that, and we stick once again now to our guidance of a 13% quarter one by the end of the year, on which we are comfortable. Regarding Basel IV, which is another topic regarding regulatory headwinds, we had guided on an 85 basis points impact, and we stick to this guidance, which remains unchanged.
Okay, thank you.
All right. Thank you very much. I think, we have no more questions. So thank you very much for your time. Thank you for joining, and, we will speak with you next quarter. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Société Générale conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.