Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to the Société Générale Conference Call. I now hand over to Mr. Slawomir Krupa, Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the conference call today. We are pleased to present the Société Générale Group's results for the second quarter. They reflect the sustained improvement in profitability and the right pace towards the delivery of our financial targets. The Group's net income improves by 24% compared to last year, and it stands at EUR 1.1 billion in Q2 2024, equivalent to a quarterly ROTE of 7.4%. The cost-to-income ratio is improving as well at 68.4% for the quarter and 71.6% for the half-year, moving us closer to our annual targets. Revenues are up 6% compared to last year, and this outcome is driven by an overall robust performance of most businesses, with, once again, an excellent quarter in Global Banking and Investor Solutions, a sustained performance of our International Retail Banking, and higher margins at Ayvens .
In France, NII is improving quarter- after- quarter, but it is facing headwinds coming from an increased share of interest-bearing deposits and a slower loan origination in a muted environment. We have maintained a strict cost management, allowing for strong positive jaws in Q2 2024, and cost of risk is in line with a target at 26 basis points in Q2 2024. Regarding liquidity and capital, the Bank maintains very strong ratios at 152% for the LCR at the end of June and 13.1% for the CET1 ratio, post-distribution provision of EUR 0.91 per share. Furthermore, we move forward in an orderly and efficient manner with the implementation of our strategic roadmap, with the sustained development of BoursoBank in particular, which has reached now the 6.5 million clients mark, and the launch of the first phase of our EUR 1 billion investment dedicated to the energy transition.
We continue to simplify our business portfolio, and we execute our strategic plan in order to build a more profitable bank and create more value over the long term for all our stakeholders. Claire will now give you some more details of the financial performance. Claire.
Thank you, Slawomir. Let's start on slide 5 with the operating performance for the quarter. As illustrated in the chart, Group revenues increased by 6.3% in Q2 as of last year to reach EUR 6.7 billion. They are up by nearly 3% for the first six months as of last year. In French Retail, NII has increased by 10% compared with Q2 last year and by 9% versus Q1. Fees remain solid and up 2.3% at pillar level in Q2, excluding client acquisition costs at BoursoBank. Overall, revenues of the pillar are up by 1.1% compared to last year and by almost 6% versus Q1. On Global Banking and Investor Solutions, the level of activity remains strong across businesses. Revenues are up by 10% versus last year at EUR 2.6 billion.
This growth in revenues is notably driven by G lobal Markets and Transaction Banking, which once again posted excellent results with double-digit revenue growth in both cases. Regarding Mobility, International Retail Banking, and Financial Services, revenues are slightly down by 2.3% versus Q2 due to negative base effect at Ayvens level, linked to non-recurring items by around EUR 200 million. Excluding this effect, performance was good on mobility. It's improving quarter-over-quarter with an increase in margin and still good UCS results per car, which are, however, normalizing as expected. On their side, international retail banks posted sustained revenues. On costs, operating expenses are slightly up at EUR 4.6 billion, notably due to perimeter effects linked to LeasePlan and Bernstein for EUR 104 million. Excluding this effect, the cost base is almost stable, including around EUR 80 million increase in variable items related to performance.
Once again, it illustrates our disciplined cost management in a still inflationary context. Overall, the cost-to-income lands at 68.4% in Q2. It's down both versus last quarter and past quarter. Let's now move on to slide six on cost of risk. At Group level, the cost of risk is stable at 26 basis points in Q2 versus Q1, in line with expectations, despite additional impact of market files in France. Excluding these files, cost of risk would have been around 18 basis points at Group level. For the quarter, the cost of risk amounts to EUR 387 million. It's split between EUR 501 million of Stage 3 provision and a reversal of EUR 150 million in Stage 1 and 2 . The NPL ratio remains low at 3% post-application of IFRS 5 on entities for sale.
Adjusted for NPL sales made in Q2 but settled in the beginning of Q3, the pro forma ratio is broadly stable at around 2.9%. The net coverage ratio remains high at 80%. Last, provisions on Stage one and two assets stay at high level at EUR 3.2 billion post-application since Q1 of IFRS 5 norm on assets classified as held for sale. Let's now turn to capital, slide seven. The CET1 ratio lands at 13.1% in Q2, i.e., around 285 basis points above MDA. It's slightly down compared with previous quarters due to two main impacts that were expected. First, the creation of Bernstein in April, with an impact of six basis points on the capital ratio in Q2. Second, regulatory impacts representing 12 basis points this quarter. It's almost entirely linked to an on-site inspection made by the ECB on hybrids.
At the end of June, around 20 basis points of regulatory impact have been recognized since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the Group generated 12 basis points of capital through the earnings post-distribution provision. At the end of Q2, the total RWA amounted to EUR 389 million. Given those elements, we now expect the CET1 ratio to be above 13% at the end of the year. The other capital ratios remain comfortably above requirements. Few words now on liquidity, slide eight. The liquidity profile of the Group is sound and very robust. It was further strengthened in the last quarter. Deposits grew by around 2% compared to Q1, thanks to granular inflows spread across most businesses. Overall, the loan-to-deposit ratio stands at 75% at Group level.
Regarding liquidity reserves, they are up by almost EUR 10 billion as of last quarter and amount to EUR 326 billion at the end of June. The LCR ratio remains strong at 162%, as well as the NSFR ratio at 118%, post-repayment of EUR 7 billion of TLTRO in Q2. It represents, in both cases, around EUR 100 billion of losses. Last, it's important to remind that around 85% of the 2024 funding programs has already been achieved at the end of July. I will now comment slide 9. Let's now have a look on the business performance, starting with French Retail on slide 11. In Q2, market environment remained subdued on the loan front due to a more uncertain and wait-and-see context post-dissolution. In that context, loan outstanding decreased by €2 billion in Q1.
Versus Q1, it was mostly driven by home loans despite a continued rebound in production by around 50% versus Q2 last year, but at a level that remained around 65% below the average quarterly volume in 2021. With corporates, loan outstanding remained stable, excluding state-guaranteed loans, which decreased by EUR 3 billion compared with last year. On the deposit front, net inflows were positive by EUR 2 billion versus Q1. The increase in outstanding was, however, driven by interest-bearing products contributing to a further increase in deposit beta. In private banking, AUM reached a record level at EUR 152 billion at the end of March. Assets are up 6% compared with last year, thanks to robust inflows of EUR 2.2 billion in Q2. On insurance, life insurance outstandings are up 7% versus last year to a record EUR 143 billion.
Gross inflows amounted to EUR 5.3 billion, which represents an increase by nearly 70% compared to last year. It's important to remind that these strong inflows will translate over time into higher revenue in line with the new IFRS 17 norm. Last, Protection and P&C premiums increased by 3%, that is, the second quarter of last year. Let's now turn to slide 12 on NII. In Q2, NII increased by more than 10% compared with last year and 9% versus Q1. As indicated last quarter, NII in French Retail was impacted for the last time in Q2 by the negative carry of the short-term book until early 2022 for an amount of around EUR 150 million. However, NII growth has been mitigated by headwinds. On one hand, a higher deposit beta than expected due to the strong inflows towards interest-bearing products, which rose by around EUR 4 billion versus Q1.
Overall, this represents an impact of around EUR 115 million versus the forecast we made after Q1. On the other hand, market environment was muted on loans with subdued demand. For that reason, we have adopted a prudent origination policy in a context of high competition despite the macro environment. As for deposits, we have thus adjusted downward our estimates regarding NII on loans by around EUR 150 million versus Q1 based on revised projections. All in all, we now estimate that the NII of the French Retail activities will be around EUR 3.8 billion in 2024 based on the updated projections. A few words now on BoursoBank, slide 13. In Q2, BoursoBank once again maintained a high acquisition pace with more than 300,000 new clients. In line with our trajectory, we proactively decided to limit growth at this high level after two quarters of very strong client acquisition.
It has contributed to a decrease in acquisition costs by 14% versus Q1. At the end of June, more than 6.5 million people in France were clients of BoursoBank. At the same time, assets under administration reached EUR 61 billion in Q2, thanks to strong inflows both on deposits and life insurance. On loans, the rebound in production was confirmed in Q2 with a 21% increase in average versus Q1. All in all, on slide 14, total revenues of the pillar are 1% in Q2 versus last year and by almost 6% compared with Q1. Regarding costs, they are up 2% versus Q2 on a reported basis. However, adjusted from the one-off accounted and disclosed in Q2 2023, they are down by 1.7%. The cost of risk has improved compared with Q1 at 29 basis points. It is still impacted by specific market files.
Restated from those files, the cost of risk in France would have been around 16 basis points. Overall, the Group net income of the pillar amounts to EUR 236 million in Q2. Turning to Global Markets and Investor Services on slide 15. Overall, total revenues are up 14% on the back of another excellent performance of market activities, whose revenues increased by 16% at nearly EUR 1.6 billion in a conducive environment. Equities performed very well across the board with a sharp increase in revenues of 24% versus Q2 last year, thanks to high volumes. On fixed income, revenues are up 3% versus last year, with, on one hand, strong client demand in investment solutions, but on the other hand, low activity in flow and hedging, with tighter spreads in rates and low volatility on foreign exchange.
Regarding Securities Services, revenues are up 1% with a good momentum and fee generation, offsetting the impact of the NII of the end of the remuneration of mandatory reserves. On Financing and Advisory, slide 16. Revenues are up 3% versus Q2 last year at EUR 879 million, with a stable contribution at high level for Global Banking and Advisory and a continued strong performance of Transaction Banking, whose revenues increased by 14% versus last year, thanks to interest rate levels and active commercial development across the board. On Global Banking and Advisory, we can note to highlight an excellent quarter in securitization and a strong rebound in IBD. Overall, slide 17, this is once again an excellent quarter for GBIS with high positive jaws. Revenues landed about EUR 2.6 billion in Q2.
It represents an increase by 10% versus last year, while costs remained broadly stable at the same time at EUR 1.6 billion. This translates into a reported cost-to-income ratio of 63%. Cost of risk remained low at 5 basis points. Overall, GBIS delivered a very strong quarter with an RONE above 20% and a net contribution of EUR 770 million. Let's now move to International Retail Banking, slide 18. Once again, the division had a solid commercial activity across regions. In Europe, loans and deposits were up 6% and 8% respectively compared to Q2 last year at constant change and perimeter. The trend was also good in Africa, as loans are up 2% on average and deposits by 4% at constant change and perimeter. In terms of revenues of our international retail banks, they increased by 3% versus last year at constant change and perimeter.
Turning now to mobility and living services, slide 19. On Ayvens, revenues are down by 4% compared to Q2 last year on a reported basis. It includes both perimeter effects linked to the integration of LeasePlan and strong negative base effects versus Q2 last year. On a sequential basis, which gives a better picture of the current underlying performance of Ayvens, revenues are up by 5% versus Q1, restated from non-recurring items. From a commercial standpoint, margins have reached 539 basis points in Q2 compared to 522 basis points in Q1. In parallel, the UCS result per vehicle is normalizing as expected. Excluding the impact of the reduction in depreciation costs and PPA, it amounted to EUR 1,480 on average per vehicle in Q2 versus EUR 1,661 in Q1. This is in line with our full-year target. At the same time, the integration of LeasePlan is progressing well.
Realized synergies have increased to EUR 47 million at the end of June, a progression in line with the EUR 120 million expected for the full-year. On Consumer Finance, the environment remains challenging, notably in France. Loans outstanding decreased by 4% on a year-over-year comparison, and margins are still impacted by the effect of the usury rate on loans originated until last year. Overall, revenues are down by 5% versus Q2 last year. Last, Equipment Finance posted stable revenues in Q2. Overall, on slide 20, the pillar contributed to the Group net income for EUR 316 million in Q2 with a cost-to-income ratio of 58.8%. To conclude, let's move on slide 21 with the Corporate Center. Revenues are mostly composed of the cost of carry linked to the management of the group's buffers and structural risks.
The improvement versus last year is mainly due to base effects related to negative legacy one-offs disclosed last year. Overall, the net contribution of the Corporate Center is negative by around EUR 200 million in Q2 versus EUR 472 million last year. Slawomir .
Thank you, Claire. A few words now on the latest milestones in our ESG roadmap. We continue to innovate for our clients and to support them in their strategic transition investments, and we are recognized for this leadership. We have been rated the world's leading bank by Moody's ESG and ranked the best bank in terms of transition strategy by Euromoney for the third consecutive year. We have exceeded our EUR 300 billion target in terms of sustainable finance contribution within 18 months still to go.
We announced the project to acquire a majority stake in Reed Management, an alternative asset manager with the ambition to support emerging leaders of the energy transition through direct equity participation. This is a key component of the EUR 1 billion energy transition investment, which we presented at the Capital Markets Day. It positions us as a key player in this growing market segment. On the last slide, which is now a usual one, we show our progress towards our targets of both 2024 and 2026. The figures speak for themselves, so I will not comment further. Let's now have our Q&A session, and please stick to our usual rule of two questions for the first. It's yours.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. Please ask your question in English. The first question comes from Azzurra Guelfi of Citi.
Hi, good morning. Two questions for me. One is on French Retail. If I understand well, the major driver for the change in the guidance is driven by higher deposit beta and lower lending growth. Can you give us what are the underlying on these, and how do you see the recovery of French Retail into next year as well and the progression in the coming quarter? The second one is on capital. You have marginally improved your guidance to above 13%. And can you give us what has driven you to be a little bit more optimistic and constructive on capital trend? And if you can share with us the regulatory situation update in terms of potential charges to come . Thank you.
All right, thank you. Hello. I'll leave the floor to Philippe on the first question on the French Retail and to Claire on the capital.
Hello, good morning. So yes, the new estimate for full-year 2024 on the French Retail NII takes into account two main new elements. I mean, since the last estimate made at the end of the first quarter, basically, they have the same impact. So the first one, as mentioned by Claire, for an impact of approximately EUR 150 million, it's, as you said, a higher deposit beta than expected due to an increase in interest-bearing products, notably term deposits and notably with corporates. So that's the first impact. You know, a difference in projection. And the second one, also for an impact of approximately EUR 150 million, it's lower volume of loans with, I would say, two components.
The first one, it's a less conducive market than expected, you know, in France, and that's true for both individuals and for corporates. And also related to SG, you know, a prudent origination policy, including from a pricing standpoint, you know, because we are operating in a very competitive environment at a certain level of margin, we are not comfortable. So basically, that's the two impacts. First one on deposits and the second one on loans. So that's why we have revised the estimate, and that's our best estimate to date, you know, taking into account the economic situation and also the change in the behavior of the customers, both in terms of savings and investments.
Claire?
Yes, regarding the first part of your question, which is a driver of the review of the quarter one end-of-year estimate. So we are closer to the end of the year.
We have now a very good level of confidence within first, capital build-up through earnings, and second, the efficiency of the asset-light model we deploy and our capability to stick to the guidance we have provided regarding 1% annual growth of the RONE. For the second part of your question, which is the regulatory impact, in Q4 2023 and in Q1 2024, we had indicated an estimate of 35 basis points minimum impact for the year. At the end of June, 20 basis points have already been recognized. To date, we do not have any notification leading us to adjust what we have said. So based on this, we confirm the quarter one end-of-year estimate that should be above 13% at the end of 2024.
Thank you. Sorry, on the outlook on the NII, if I can get back to that, thank you.
No, no, we don't give at this stage an estimate for 2025.
The next question is from Tarik El Mejjad of Bank of America.
Hi, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, please. Just, I'll follow up first on the NII in French Retail. I mean, I understand the drivers, but when I look at sector data, at least till May, it was available at Banque de France, and the competitors as reported, we don't see that much shift in terms of deposit mix. Which question basically the deposit franchise? Do you think you have slightly lower quality franchise in deposit gathering so you have to pay up more, or you don't have enough off-balances products to capture these deposits and to generate to offset the revenue loss from paying higher on drawing them? So really I was thinking why you think you are impacted more.
And then on the trajectory, I understand you don't give a guidance for 2025, but it would be helpful to understand a bit the trend of this migration and what you see in the pipeline in terms of lending growth. Can you share with us what this trend has been in July and on the lending activity? Why actually are you cautious? I mean, what has shifted in terms of macro that makes you more cautious into more supply? And then on capital, the surprise, there's nothing in the slides about FRTB. Is that something you assume is still happening in Q1 2025? And what about the on-site inspection? I think Claire, you mentioned something in your presentation on the capital slide that some of OSI has been already captured in Q2. Can you give us some more indication on what you see there? Thank you.
So thank you. I'll start with Claire on the capital, and then Philippe on your NII question. I'll just say one thing in terms of the OSIs, as you know, and as you have seen in the market, the ECB carries reviews constantly throughout the sector on models and different businesses, etc., and as part of this regular OSI program may or may not notify additional impacts from a capital perspective. So at this point in time, and that's what Claire said, we don't have other projections to add. And yes, there was an impact in Q2 on one particular assignment, which actually was one from, I think, four years ago. So you see that the process is what it is today. You know, we have clearly stated what the situation is. Claire, the other question on capital and then Philippe.
Yeah, for the other part of your question, which is regarding FRTB. So yes, regarding the FRTB, the impact will be postponed by one year according to the last delegated act that has been published in July this year. So we had guided on a total amount of 85 basis points regarding Basel IV, and we had disclosed the share of FRTB. So according to what we have said, now for beginning of 2025, we estimate that the Basel IV impact, excluding FRTB, will be 50 basis points in Q1.
Philippe?
Yes, so regarding the shifts of deposits, so probably there is an impact for customer base, both in corporates and for individuals. We've probably bigger corporates on the portfolio, which means that they are more agile and probably they move quicker and for larger amount on deposit, I mean, term deposits or financial products than smaller companies.
Regarding the individuals, I think the underlying positive news is that we have, during the last, notably during the last six months, captured a lot of savings from our clients, which means also that the commercial dynamism is good. We have seen the numbers in life insurance. So yes, we have an increase on term deposit, and we are also cautious with our pricing, but simultaneously, we have also these very important net inflows in insurance life. And I would like to insist on that. I think demonstrates that we are capturing the savings of our clients and help our clients to monitor their savings, which is, of course, a very important part of the financial life. Regarding the credit, as you know, we have always been very careful from an origination policy standpoint, but also from a pricing standpoint, and notably for the mortgages.
So when we do consider that the pricing is not the right one, and because we are going to book these loans for 15 or 20 years, that's true that we are adjusting our origination policy, and that's what, even for various rebounds, that's what we have done during the last months.
Thank you, but sorry to insist again on some moving parts guidance, not a number, but moving guidance, what you see in terms of these trends, because I mean, on the corporate, I think the agility of corporates and moving around and so on should persist. On the retail side, how that would move. And maybe as well, it's a request maybe for the IR team.
I mean, we don't have the NII guidance, sorry, the NII consensus number anymore, which I think disappeared from the consensus, which I think is a very important key line, especially that share price trades a lot on this line. So it would be good to have that back so we know where the market sits on this revenue line. Thanks.
All right, I mean, you'll take care of this with the IR team. And again, on the first part, to your point, there are persisting trends indeed that I think in the French market materialized with a slower pace than in some other markets. And clearly, let's say, at constant rate environment, the agility of the most agile part of the client base is here to stay. And so it's something you have to take into account, yes.
Next question?
The next question, sir, is from Flora Bocahut of Barclays.
Yes, good morning. The first question I'd like to ask you is on the BoursoBank, because if we just take one step back here and we look at your revenues in French Retail banking, NII is obviously under pressure if we adjust for the short-term hedge. I mean, it was discussed here regarding the low lending growth and the deposit beta. And then the fees are also not growing, which I guess is mainly because of the acquisition cost on the clients at BoursoBank. So the question I'd like to ask you on BoursoBank, you are at more than 6.5 million clients now. The target is to get to 8 million in 2026. You've been acquiring something like 300,000 new clients per quarter.
So at this pace, it looks like you're going to reach your 8 million target clients for BoursoBank probably in Q3 next year. So the question is, in that regard, are you going to consider upgrading that target again towards like 10 million? Or could we expect that BoursoBank is going to turn more profitable earlier than expected, so potentially as early as H2 2025 as opposed to 2026? Thank you.
Thank you. Philippe?
Yes, I think that what this quarter demonstrates again regarding BoursoBank, to monitor both the pace of acquisition and the profitability. So yes, we have adjusted the acquisition for this quarter, which remains at a very high level. Simultaneously, we have been able to reduce the acquisition cost per client by 14%. And all the other indicators I'm mentioning every quarter are in the right direction.
It's the increase of the asset under management per client. It's the run cost of the company, all the indicators. So again, I think that this quarter demonstrates again the potential, the agility of this bank, again, both regarding number of clients and capacity to extract profitability. At this stage, we know we are not changing the target which were disclosed during the CMD.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Guillaume Tiberghien of BNP Paribas.
Yes, good morning. I've got two questions. The first one is on NII in French Retail, and I don't care about the guidance. I'm just trying to understand what happened quarter-on-quarter, excluding the hedge. The NII is down EUR 80 million.
From what I read on your slide, the deposits, the current accounts are stable, and the costly deposits, they're up EUR 4 billion, but you can put them at the ECB, and I guess you make a profit on it. So I don't understand how NII can be down EUR 80 million quarter-on-quarter. The second question is regarding your equity tier one at year-end, above 13%. I want to make sure that it is indeed based on +1% for the full-year organic growth of RWA, i.e., a 2% increase in H2, because in H1, the RWA fell 1%. So that should consume 20 bps of capital and then trim 10 bps. So do you confirm that you intend to build 30 bps in H2 so that your equity tier one is at least stable in H2? Thank you.
Thank you. Claire?
So regarding your first question, which is the evolution of the NII. So you exclude the short-term hedges, which is once again confirmed as the short-term hedges are over by the end of May. For the rest of the evolution of the NII, on the one hand, we get the benefit of the replacement of the old deposits at higher prices. So this is offset by first a higher deposit beta. We have literally globally a five basis points impact regarding the deposit beta quarter-to-quarter that comes from both the deposit mix and globally the level of pricing of the deposit, which is in line with the rest of the banking industry, but which has increased. Second, we have the decrease also or the evolution of the loan outstanding and the impact of the production that also explains the quarter-to-quarter trend.
So from Q1 to Q2, these are the main drivers of the evolution of the NII. Second, regarding the question on quarter one, yes, we assume a 1% organic growth of our RWA for the full-year, which is completely in line with the guidance we had given at the capital market day, which is that thanks to several levers, we tend to deploy a more asset-light model.
Okay, can I just ask to also add the revenues of Boursorama, or at least the acquisition cost of Boursorama, when you also give, if possible, the NII of French Retail, because you don't seem to forecast very well the revenues. We are unable to forecast them. So it would be really useful if you at least gave us the two data that you have to help us.
Thanks for the suggestion. We'll think about it. Thank you. Next question?
The next question is from Delphine Lee of J.P. Morgan.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just really two clarifications again on the same topic. I'm sorry. French Retail, can you maybe just give us what your assumptions are on the EUR 3.8 billion? What are you assuming for loan growth and deposit mix? I'm just thinking because at the time of Q1, you said that if the trends would continue, you would be at EUR 4.1 billion, but the trends have continued. If you look at deposits, they have increased quarter-over-quarter, and the mix is still 45% sight deposits, and loan growth has continued to decline 1% quarter-over-quarter. So I agree pricing has changed, but it still seems that we're just trying to reconcile a little bit your NII guidance.
So if you just give us maybe your assumptions on those 3.8 in terms of what the deposit costs you're using, the deposit volume you're assuming, and mix, and maybe the lending volumes as well, that would be helpful. And my second question is on just a very quick clarification. It might be small, but on your regulatory headwinds, the sort of 12 basis points of ECB on-site inspections you took in the second quarter, was that already—did you expect this as part of your 35 basis points of trim, or does that come on top? I mean, just kind of wondering if there is some trim impact that we should expect next year, or is that just 35 and there's nothing else coming? Thank you.
Thank you.
I'll leave these questions to Claire, but once again, I'll start by saying we can forecast where we have reasonable. I'm talking about your OSI question here. We can forecast where we have tangible indications of an impact to be expected, right? So today, what we can expect, as Claire explained earlier, is the 35 we talked about earlier, of which 20 have already been accounted for, including what was mentioned for the second quarter, the 12 basis points for the second quarter. That's the situation today. Now, again, the supervisory work is a permanent work, and the impact stemming from OSIs is something which is a potential permanent feature of the supervisory work. And once again, the guidance for the year is 13% CET1 ratio. Yeah?
Yeah. So Claire, let me answer your second question.
Your second question, yes, the 12 basis points of hybrid inspection, which are the ones we had disclosed at the capital market day, it's exactly the same. We were expecting them last year, and they come just this quarter. It's part of the 35 we have guided for the year. Regarding the first part of your question, the financial projections are built at a very granular basis by the business regarding their outstanding projections and their expectations about the level of margin. It's built at a sub-level regarding each deposit type and each credit type. In a nutshell, what is embarked in these financial projections, because these business projections are there translated into financial projections, is an assumption for the end of year, which is in line with the beginning of the year. This is why we revised our guidance.
So we took the first two quarters regarding loans outstanding and production and regarding deposits, both sight and term and globally remunerated deposits projections. And we consider that the trend will be the same until the end of the year. So it's not completely linear, but it's roughly the global trend. Regarding the level of margin, exactly same trend, which translates, I'm sorry, into the 3.8. So we notably assume the fact that we still have pressure on the deposit beta in the context of higher interest-bearing deposits.
The next question is from Giulia Miotto of Morgan Stanley.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll ask two, please. And I'll change topics, perhaps. So on asset disposals, we have seen a few new headlines, one just a couple of days ago.
So could you perhaps share with us an update on how this process is going and if you have any outlook over the next few months around how much capital you expect to generate from disposals of assets? And then secondly, cost of risk and asset quality was particularly high in the quarter in France again, and you're also being cautious on lending. So are you seeing a material asset quality deterioration, or can you comment on asset quality trends in general? Also, the Stage 3 ratio was up. So yeah, I wonder if there is anything that you're looking at particularly closely when it comes to asset quality deterioration. Thank you.
Thank you. I'll leave the floor to Stéphane Landon, our CRO, on the asset quality question on the disposals. I mean, as I said in the past, we don't comment on specific situations.
I can say nonetheless two things. One, everything we announced already, the processes, the execution of these transactions is well underway with nothing to report. Everything's going according to plan. And the second thing I can say is the commitment to a very strict and conservative business portfolio management according to very clear criteria, a set of criteria which I described in the past a few times, is a strategic commitment. And so we will continue to apply this analytical grid and to make decisions based on these various targets that we have within the analytical grid for all our businesses. And so yes, we continue to work on this. Stéphane?
Thank you. Yes, for the cost of risk in France in particular, I mean, this is mainly due to, I mean, the level is mainly composed of, let's say, two market files that have hit us this quarter.
But apart from that, we don't see anything but normalization of the cost of risk. I think Claire mentioned the amount of 16 basis points if she takes out these two elements. Regarding the overall asset quality, we don't see any deterioration. Once again, we saw in the last quarter some normalization, but overall, the element that we see today in Stage 3 are the idiosyncratic elements, non-correlated, so no deterioration of the portfolio.
Thank you.
The next question is from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs.
Yeah, good morning, everybody. Just two on the investment bank. For markets, Slawomir, I think in the press call earlier, you said that market revenues could exceed EUR 5.4 billion this year. So is there a new guidance range you'd like to put on that business for 2024?
Obviously, EUR 5.4 billion would imply a bit of a slowdown sequentially through the second half, probably more so than the typical seasonality of H2 being around 80% of H1. So just any updated guidance on markets would be appreciated. And then in financing and advisory, you've said that global banking and advisory revenues were broadly stable in the second quarter, year-over-year. Is there anything you'd like to call out in there? When I look at peers, they're clearly posting higher growth rates. Is there just maybe anything in the comp from last year or in the perimeter versus peers that we should consider, or any comments that you have on the outlook for activity levels here through the rest of this year and maybe also into 2025? Thank you.
Thank you.
In terms of the market revenues, I mean, obviously, given the performance in the first half, I can confirm that we expect in normal market circumstances to exceed the 5.4 level for the year. In terms of the implied slowdown, to your point, there is seasonality between H1 and particularly Q1 and the rest of the year, H1 and the rest of the year. So yeah, I mean, we should exceed by margin 5.4 in normal market circumstances. There is demand from the clients across all asset classes with various mixes, more flow in equity, more investment in fixed income. But overall, the demand is strong and the markets are conducive. So that's for the markets. In terms of the F&A, well, one, you have to remember that there was a pretty high base to compare with. In 2023, it was a very strong quarter, so that's one.
Two, there's nothing specific. There's no perimeter effect in these numbers. It's a fairly well-distributed activity across the usual infrastructure, natural resources, and asset-backed products. And so where we again see a sustained demand, we have the right expertise, we have the right client relationships, so we're fully expecting to take advantage of this in the context of trying to be much more efficient in terms of the usage of capital and with some constraints on, let's say, the net RWA allocation to the business. But it's overall a performance that remains strong and that we expect to remain strong in 2025.
Thank you.
The next question is from Pierre Chedeville of CIC.
Good morning. My first question is on transformation cost as far as I know. We are close to EUR 350 million.
I was wondering if we could plan for the whole year the low level of the bracket you gave between EUR 700 million and EUR 800 million of transformation cost for the next quarters. My second question relates to the consumer credit, which is still in a difficult situation in terms of revenue growth. I was wondering how do you see the evolution of these revenues in the next quarter, considering the fact that maybe your refinancement, your funding cost will decrease, will probably decrease. And also, what is your vision of this franchise in your global business, considering the fact that consumer credit is a key element for most banks currently? Thank you very much.
Thank you. So Claire on the transformation cost and Pierre Palmieri on the consumer credits.
So out of the EUR 1 billion CTA, which is expected over the period 2024 to 2026, we expect to book around EUR 750 million of CTA in 2024.
Yeah, thank you.
Yes, so good morning to all. On the consumer finance, it is true that we have been noticing a decline in terms of revenues. In terms of fees, the activity is good. We have seen an increase in our fees, but we are suffering from transactions that have been originated and are still on the books in France, which are with a lower margin, and this will stay for some time, but will probably progressively decrease. So we expect for the whole year revenues that will be probably slightly lower than 2023, but going further, a gradual recovery on the commercial margins.
Thank you.
The next question is from Anke Reingen of RBC.
Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. Just firstly, on the above 13%, I just wonder what the distribution assumption in this is. And I mean, I understand you currently accrue the 50%, but your previous commentary was it's 40%-50% and towards the lower end in the early part of the plan. And when you decide at year-end in terms of capital distribution, would you consider the delay in the FRTB as a positive, or would you be thinking about the fact that it's actually the 85 basis points on your capital ratio? And then technically, just on the costs, if we look into the second half, you previously said like EUR 500 million cost savings for 2024, how much have been realized? And should we be thinking about inflation or wage agreement headwinds? Thank you very much.
Okay, so I'll start with the distribution, and I'll leave the cost question to Claire. On distribution, so yeah, we accrue its regulatory requirements, 50%. The policy remains unchanged at this stage. And so it has stated for 50% of reported earnings and based upon the decision that the board makes in January next year. Now, in terms of the inputs into the discussion and the decision, of course, the trajectory of capital investments we made at the CMD is a key parameter into the decision. So I can't speak for the board six months before the decision will take place. But clearly, the trajectory is the key parameter in assessing that decision. That's what I can say. And clearly, I mean, the trajectory is favorable and strong at this point in time. Claire?
Regarding the cost savings, so we're on track on the savings plan. In H1, we have realized EUR 250 million gross savings, and we expect to benefit from the same amount by the end of the year.
Thank you. If I just follow up on the payout ratio, so the above 13% doesn't make a specific assumption yet on the distribution rate to be decided at year-end.
No, no. No, no, no, no.
Okay, thank you.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Krupa, there are no questions registered, so back to you for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much. Thank you for joining us this morning, and I wish you a nice summer and look forward to speaking with you in Q3. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Société Générale conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.