Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Société Générale third quarter 2023 results conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Slawomir Krupa, Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for joining our quarterly earnings call. This quarter was marked by a good commercial performance in most of our businesses, a limited increase in operating expenses and a low cost of risk. Global Banking and Investor Solutions, in particular, posted stable revenues compared to a high reference point reached last year, and International Retail Banking maintained, as well, a solid performance. On the other hand, the group's net result was penalized by the negative effect of short-term hedges on net interest income in the French Retail Banking, the impact of which peaked in Q3 2023. It also includes, as announced during our Capital Markets Day, exceptional accounting items with no impact on capital ratio and no impact on shareholder distribution.
On the one hand, it was the impairment of goodwill, and on the other hand, provisioning of deferred tax assets for a total negative impact of EUR 610 million on the net income. This leads to a group net income of EUR 295 million for the third quarter, EUR 905 million, excluding the non-cash items, and it amounts to EUR 2.1 billion for the first nine months of the year. On costs, operating expenses are up by less than 1% at constant perimeter, leading to a cost-to-income ratio of 70.4% for the quarter, and this ratio stands at 72.4%, reported for the nine months, and 68.9% if we exclude the contribution to the SRF. Regarding cost of risk, the defaults remain limited, and we maintain a high S1, S2 inventory.
And all in all, the cost of risk is at 21 basis points in Q3 2023. Overall, the reported ROTE stands at 3.8%, 6% excluding non-cash items, and it is at 5% for the nine months on an annualized basis versus 1% last year. Excluding the contribution to the SRF, the nine months 2023 ROTE stands at 6.5. Allow me here to make the comment that this is the first quarter where we do apply our new approach to the results communications with a focus on the reported numbers, which obviously is a significant change that has to be kept in mind. Finally, in line with the previous quarters, the balance sheet is very solid, with a CET1 ratio of 13.3%, up 20 basis points this quarter.
A nd a robust liquidity profile, with an LCR ratio in particular, which remains strong at 147%, thanks to high liquidity reserves and a stable deposit base. Before leaving the floor to Claire, I simply would like to take a brief moment to highlight once again our strategic ESG ambitions, and in particular, the commitments we announced during the CMD, with the addition of a new target today on steel, which we disclosed as part of these results. As explained in September, ESG is at the heart of our strategy. We are strongly committed to a more sustainable world and to increasing our contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals by both accelerating the pace of decarbonization of our businesses, but also, as you know, through investing for a sustainable future through a EUR 1 billion investment fund.
And also, relying in our thinking and decision-making on the inputs of the Scientific Advisory Board, because these topics are complex and require scientific foundations, to enhance the decision making. ESG is an imperative for us, it's fundamental to our strategy, and it has been once again recognized by Sustainalytics this quarter, positioning us among the best banks in the world and the only French bank rated low risk. I will now leave the floor to Claire, who will give us more details on the financial results.
Thank you, Slawomir, and good morning to all. Let's start now by looking at the revenues on slide 6. In Q3, the group reported total revenues of EUR 6.2 billion, down -6.2% compared to a high Q2 in 2022. Business by business, Global Banking and Investor Solutions recorded solid activity, with revenues almost stable compared to a very strong Q3 last year, thanks to a robust performance of market activities and a record third quarter for Financing and Advisory . Similarly, International Retail Banking posted solid revenues up by, up by 3% compared to Q3 last year, thanks notably to a solid momentum in Romania and a strong performance in Africa.
However, those good business performances do not allow to fully mitigate the decline in revenues, which is due to, first, the continued negative impact on French retail of short-term hedges of the NII, which peaked in Q3 before maturing progressively in H1 2024. Adding the PEL/CEL impact, the NII in French retail is down by EUR 317 million compared to last year. Second, a decrease by EUR 270 million in revenues of the Corporate Center , due to the impact of the unwinding of the hedges on the TLTRO, and to a base effect compared to Q3 2022 on volatile items. Also, note that the integration of LeasePlan results in a contribution of EUR 300 million of additional revenues.
Over the first nine months of the year, the trend is similar, with good performance in GBIS and international retail, while the decline in revenues comes from the NII in French retail, the impact of the hedges on the TLTRO, and one-off impact which closed in Q2. This is also the consequence of a very high 2022 comparison base, which explains, for example, why market activity shows a decrease in revenues of almost EUR 300 million compared to last year. Overall, the revenues generated since the beginning of the year are in line with 2021. Let's have a look on the operational performance on slide seven. Despite the integration of LeasePlan, which contributes to around 304, 340 million EUR in the first half.
O perating expenses only increased by 2.4% over nine months compared to last year, a level well below inflation. Excluding the changes in perimeter, the positive evolution of the contribution to the SRF and the transformation, and the transformation charges, the increase in the nine-month cost base amounts to around 250 million EUR compared to last year, which means less than 2%. This illustrates the importance we place on strict cost management, which we intend to further strengthen going forward. All of this leads to a reported cost-income ratio of 72.4% for the first nine months in 2023. It's 68.9%, excluding the contribution to the SRF. As indicated during the Capital Markets Day, we expect a linear improvement of the cost-to-income ratio from 2024 onwards.
Let's now move on the next, on the next slide, on the cost of risk. It remains contained across businesses. At group level, it stands at 21 basis points in Q3, and 15 basis points in nine months. It demonstrates once again the quality of our assets, with still no material deterioration of our portfolio. For the quarter, the cost of risk amounts to EUR 316 million, of which EUR 419 million in stage three, and a net reversal of EUR 103 million in stage one and two. Regarding the latter, it's mainly explained by a reversal of provision on Russian assets linked to the significant decrease in Russian exposure, as we will see in a few moments. The NPL ratio remains low and stable compared to Q2 last year, at 2.9 compared to Q2 this year, at 2.9%.
The gross coverage ratio is solid at 46%, and the net coverage plus collateral and guarantee stands around 80%. At the same time, we maintain high precautionary provisions on stage one and two assets in Q3. At the end of September, the total outstanding of stage one and two provisions amounts to EUR 3.6 billion, i.e., 2.8 times stage three cost of risk in 2019. In this context, we revise downwards our cost of risk guidance for the year, which is now expected below 20 basis points in 2023. A few words now on risk management on slide nine. First, we think important to update you on the Russian exposure. The group has further materially reduced its offshore exposure, which now stands at EUR 1 billion at the end of September.
It represents a 38% decrease compared to end of June. The net exposure at risk on this portfolio is now around EUR 300 million before provisioning. The residual risk is highly covered by a total provision of around EUR 200 million. The onshore exposure remains limited at EUR 15 million. Overall, this orderly exit from Russia contributes to further reduce the tail risk at group level. More broadly, the group can rely on a strong asset quality, as illustrated once again by the low cost of risk, even in a more challenging economic environment as it is today, with higher rates and inflation. Our home loan portfolio is, for instance, largely composed of fixed-rate loans, which is very protective for clients.
At the same time, we have maintained strict monitoring, prudent origination policies, and limited exposure to the most sensitive sectors and asset classes, such as commercial real estate, LBO, non-banking financial institutions, or even with professionals and SMEs, notably in the construction, non-food retail, or catering sectors. All of this led us to revise downwards our anticipation in terms of cost of risk. Let's now turn to capital, slide 10. At the end of September 2023, the CET1 ratio stands at 13.3%. It's up 20 basis points compared to last quarter, and it's now 350 basis points above the MDA. The fully loaded ratio stands at 13.2%. This strong quarterly increase results, first, from an organic capital generation of 15 basis points, plus provision for distribution.
A nd second, from a decrease in organic RWA for an equivalent of 16 basis points, mainly due to a strict monitoring of RWA, combined to a lesser extent, with some delay in capital consumption of businesses. This is a perfect illustration of the kind of monitoring of organic capital we intend to have. This quarter, we also benefited from 6 basis points related to the group employee share ownership program. On the contrary, regulatory items have a negative impact of 16 basis points in Q3. Overall, the risk-weighted assets remain broadly stable at EUR 384 million, and the other capital ratios are all comfortably above requirements. Moving on to liquidity, slide eleven. First, let's note that our 2023 long-term funding program is almost completed at 98%.
The funded balance sheet of the group remains sound and solid, with a nexus of long-term resources, notably thanks to a strong and highly diversified deposit base, high-quality reserves, and a limited reliance on short-term funding. The robustness of the liquidity profile has been further strengthened in Q3, with, on the one hand, a stable deposit base compared to end of June, and on the other hand, higher liquidity reserves, which are up EUR 25 million compared to last quarter. Overall, the loan to deposit ratio stands at 81% at group level, and the LCR ratio remains strong at 147%, plus repayment of EUR 5 billion of TLTRO in Q3. I will not comment slide 12, and let's now turn to the business performance, starting with French Retail, slide 14.
As stated during our Capital Market Day, please note that insurance is now reported with SG Network and Private Banking . On the credit side, total loan outstanding is down by 4% in Q3 versus last year, with differentiated trends between retail and corporate. Corporate activity remains resilient, with loans excluding PGE up +1% versus last year, driven by short-term loans. On state-guaranteed loans, outstanding has decreased from around EUR 18 billion at the end of 2020 to EUR 8.9 billion currently, down by -31% compared with Q3 last year. On loans to individuals, the group remains cautious with a continuing selective approach in home loan production, started in 2022, which translates now to a decrease in home loan outstanding by -5% compared to Q3 last year.
On the deposit side, total outstanding are stable versus Q2, with deposits still shifting from sight deposits to term deposits. On savings, the group is experiencing growing assets under management. Private banking assets under management are up +5%, with net inflows of EUR 0.6 billion. Life insurance outstanding is up +2% to EUR 132 billion, with gross inflows amounting to EUR 2.6 billion. In France, the year-to-date net inflows are up, amounting to EUR 0.5 billion. Finally, premium increased by +4% in protection versus Q3 last year, with P&C premium being up by 9% versus last year. Let's now focus on the French Retail Banking net interest income as per slide 15.
As you can see, and as already stated since the beginning of the year, we have reached in Q3, the peak of the negative impact of short-term hedges on NII, put in place until early 2022. For 2023, we now expect the NII to be down by more than 20% compared to 2022. Starting with a slight increase expected in Q4, at constant balance sheet and rate environment, we expect the NII to progressively improve over the coming quarter to reach in 2024, a level at least equal to its level in 2022. Note that this projection is based on assumptions consistent with our current economic scenario, which was slightly updated since the Capital Markets Day. In terms of NII sensitivity, it has evolved since the Capital Markets Day, following next carried out since.
It's now around +EUR 20 million in year one, and around +EUR 40 million in year two, for a 10 basis points rate increase. It remains stable at around EUR 30 million for a move of EUR 1 billion in such deposits. Moving on to Boursorama, which changed its brand name during the quarter. Slide 16. In Q3, Boursorama posted a record high quarter with the onboarding of 412,000 new clients, in line with the new target set last September. Since the beginning of the year, the number of new clients largely exceeds 800,000, with a stable overall profile. At the end of September, Boursorama reached 5.4 million clients with a low churn rate, which is further decreasing and below market standard. The assets under administration continued to increase at a consistent pace per vintage.
On the commercial front, deposits and financial savings significantly further improved. They are up 21% at EUR 55 billion. In particular, Boursorama continued to collect high amounts of deposits, notably those bearing interest. Similarly, net inflows in life insurance are slightly positive. While remaining significantly lower than pre-COVID, home loan production started to rise again this quarter. On the day-to-day banking, the activity continued to be strong and grew by 20% in Q3, with a record number of operations per credit card. Let's now comment on the quarterly P&L. The French Retail Banking activities, including Private Banking and Insurance, generated a net profit of EUR 110 million in Q3. Total revenues, excluding PEL/CEL , are down -15% versus Q3 last year, due to the headwinds of the net interest income, as previously guided.
Net interest income, excluding PEL/CEL , is down -27% versus last year and -21% in nine months. Therefore, we now expect the net NII to be down by more than 20% in 2023 compared to 2022. Meanwhile, commissions remain resilient, down by 2% versus last year. The decrease is mainly due to service fees, notably in the context of Boursorama's acceleration in client onboarding, the financial fees being up compared to Q3 last year. Regarding costs, they remained under control. They are down by 2.7% compared to the Q3 last year, and include a EUR 46 million charge for transformation costs. Last, cost of risk remains contained at 18 basis points. Overall, the reported RONE comes at 2.8% in Q3 and 4.5% for the first nine months.
Turning on to Global Markets and Investor Solutions, slide 18. On Global Markets , revenues remained solid at EUR 1.3 billion. Despite a less conducive market environment last year, they are slightly down by just 2% compared to a record third quarter in 2022. In details, equities had a strong performance, considering the record Q3 last year, with a slight decrease of 1% in Q3. We have observed a normalization of market conditions for flow and financing activities, almost fully offset by a robust level of commercial activity, driven by strong momentum in investment solutions. On fixed income, revenues are down by 5% in comparison to Q3 last year. The current market environment was less conducive for flow activity. Similarly to the equity platform, client activity is high in investment solutions and rates.
On Financing and Advisory , we maintain a high level of activity. This is the highest Q3 ever at EUR 827 million, representing an increase of 2% in comparison to Q3. Global Banking and Advisory displays the good performance in Q3 across businesses, with revenues slightly down by 3%. That is a very high Q3 last year. In detail, we benefited from, first, a sustained momentum in Asset Finance and Natural Resources . Second, a solid client activity in asset-based projects. And finally, a rebound in Investment Banking , driven by acquisition finance and continued solid performance in Debt Capital Markets . In Transaction Banking performance is still robust, with an 18% increase in revenues compared to last year, still driven by both business development and a high interest rate environment.
Overall, slide 20, GBIS delivered a very good set of results in Q3. Revenues are steady, flat in comparison to a high Q3 last year, and costs are well contained. Despite the current inflationary context, they are up only 0.6% on a reported basis and include EUR 41 million of transformation charges. This translates into a competitive reported cost-income ratio at 64%. It's 17% in nine months on a reported basis and 63%, excluding SRF. All in all, it's once again a strong quarter with a reported high teens ROE of 16.9% in Q3, and 18.8% excluding SRF for the nine months. On international retail banking, on slide 21, the two regions have a good commercial activity in Q3. In Europe, loans outstanding are up by 5%, deposit by 3% on a yearly basis.
Outstanding are up across segments in both countries. In Africa, loans grew by 4% and deposits by 3% versus Q3, with a strong business performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. At EUR 1 billion in Q3 2023, revenues improved by 2.8%, thanks to a strong increase in Africa by 11%, and a good performance in Romania, whose revenues are up 8%. These robust performances more than compensate for the pressure on the NII in Czech Republic, which was down compared to a very high level in Q3 last year. Overall, our international division maintains a satisfactory performance this quarter again, with a ROE at 17%. In the Mobility and Leasing Services division, revenues increased by 22% in Q3, thanks to a 37% rise at Ayvens, which benefited from a contribution of EUR 300 million from LeasePlan.
Regarding Ayvens, margin revenues linked to leasing contracts and service margin remained stable versus last year on a like-to-like basis. Used car sale results are normalizing at 1,033 EUR per unit, including the reduction in depreciation costs, down versus a very high Q3 last year at 3,014 EUR per car. Excluding depreciation costs, used car sale results per car is down to 2,346 EUR in Q3, from 3,607 EUR in Q3 last year. Please note that LeasePlan revenue contribution of EUR 300 million has been impacted by two specific elements in Q3. First, a negative mark-to-market impact of EUR 82 million related to the hedging portfolio of LeasePlan. Second, and pending the finalization of the PPA, consolidation adjustments on the used car sale results and depreciation costs, which impacted by around EUR 150 million, the revenue contribution in Q3.
Activity-wise, earning assets increased by 14% compared to Q3 last year, due to the rise in car values, and at the same time, the funded fleet grew by 3.4%. When it comes to the Consumer Finance business, loans increased by 3%. Revenues are down, notably in France, due to the impact of the usury rate and the competitive landscape. Finally, Equipment Finance leasing outstanding are up 4% with stable revenues quarter on quarter. All in all, slide 23, international retail, mobility and leasing services contribute to the group growth for EUR 377 million net income, equivalent to a 14.9% ROE. Revenues increased by 12% and costs by 34%, essentially due to the integration of LeasePlan and the negative growth in Czech Republic, compared with a very high Q2, Q3 last year level.
According to the cost-to-income ratio, it increases to 56% in Q3, 54% in nine months, versus 49% in nine months 2022. Cost of risk at 43 basis points remain contained in Q3. On the Corporate Center , slide 24. Revenues are down year-on-year, notably due to the unwinding of the hedges of the TLTRO, that had a negative contribution of EUR 63 million in Q3, out of a total impact around EUR 300 million in 2023. In addition, the volatile items related to the fair value of the swap used for the replacement of the equity stake in the subsidiary, which were positive last year by more than EUR 100 million, lead to a strong base effect. Moreover, and as it was announced during the Capital Market Day in September, the Q3 results include two non-cash items.
First, the impairment of the goodwill of Equipment Finance and of the Africa, Mediterranean Basin and Overseas activities for a total amount of around EUR 340 million. Second, a provision of DTA for around EUR 270 million. All in, the net contribution to the group's net result is negative by -EUR 839 million in Q3. Let's now give back the floor to Slawomir.
Thank you, Claire. Just a few words before moving on to the Q&A. This quarter is a mix, as you've seen, between a strong to a solid performance across a number of businesses. Obviously negatively impacted by the continued drag on the French NII, and the number of items which we had discussed at the September Capital Markets Day, leading to a transitionary quarter in a transitionary year, as some of you put it this morning. In terms of the Q&A, let's stick with our rule of two questions per person, and please, the floor is yours.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone keypad. Please ask your question in English. The first question is from Giulia Aurora Miotto with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thank you very much. Two questions, please. The first one is on French retail. I'm a bit confused by the changing rate assumptions. If I understand it correctly, it's 40 basis points higher than it was during the capital markets day, but the guidance seems unchanged. So I was wondering, how does that work? And by guidance unchanged, I mean, 2024 NII being at least equal to 2022. And then my second question on regulatory impact, you took 16 basis points in the quarter, the previous guidance was for 50 by year-end. Does that still stand or is there any change? Thank you.
Thank you. I'll leave the floor to Claire on both your questions.
So I will answer quite quickly. First, on the French retail. So we updated the economic scenario in line with our chief economist view. So the discrepancy, the gap is really slow, is really small. It's disclosed in the slide, and the impact is not significant, regarding the trend on the net interest margin. So we updated the financial assumptions to be fully transparent, but it has no significant impact. Regarding the end of year guidance on quarter one, we have no change compared to the Capital Markets Day. We still anticipate by the end of the year, a 30 basis point impact regarding regulatory impact. Mainly leads, as I said, during the Capital Markets Day, to the on-site inspection on hybrid and also on the impact of the TRIM and IRB repair , impact.
Thank you.
Next question?
The next question is from Tarik El Mejjad with BofA. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two from my side, please, as well. I'll come back to the NII in French Retail. So, clearly you upgraded a bit the guidance, at least for the short rates, short interest rates. But and also you mentioned 2024 should be above or equal to 2022, which is, should we read it as a slightly more positive, or you still reiterate exactly the same guidance? Because if it's the same, then there's something in between that has been more negative because, you know, better assumptions, similar guidance, what others? And then a link to that, should we expect some more potential temporary headwinds that you haven't announced yet that you're still trying to figure out?
I mean, for example, is the MRR included in your change in MRR was included in your numbers, and also is there any other hedging that you mentioned that could still intervene in the next few quarters? So in a nutshell, is really all negative news on the NIR are out. And the second question on capital, maybe I'm reading too much, but I saw this nice African map where you don't mention Tunisia as under review anymore. So is this just me reading too much, or is there any change in there?
And lastly, on the dividend, you accrued 50% payout, just to confirm that this is just because ECB asked you to take the higher end of the range, and then at the full year, you will take back some of the capital that you overaccrued. And yeah, that's my questions. Thank you.
Oh, so I didn't press on the button. Sorry. So thank you for your questions. I'll take the last two. Yes, the provision for the dividend is linked to regulatory principle of provisioning the higher end of the range, if you have a range. And it's not in itself a signal as to what will be decided by the board at the end of the year. In terms of Tunisia, no, there's no change in the situation. The review is still ongoing. There's nothing, no news there, either way. And I'll leave the floor to Claire for your first question on the NII.
So regarding the NII, we tried to disclose as precisely and transparently as possible our assumptions on slide 15. So you're right, the underlying assumptions are slightly better than for the Capital Markets Day. We keep an assumption regarding the Livret A rate , which is fixed. We have disclosed our assumptions regarding outstandings and interest rates. So in a nutshell, it's slightly better, but it doesn't change dramatically the guidance, which is equal or better than 22.
Is the impact of MRR in this guidance?
No, it's written on slide 15.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Azzurra Guelfi with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I have two questions for me. On one, again, on the NII, could you give us the change year-on-year of the NII from the component of the hedging? And how much have been the commercial deceleration that we are seeing? Because in that way, we can see the progression just on the commercial ex the hedging. That would be quite helpful, because if I understand, when the majority of the drag was from hedging this quarter, but there was also some deceleration on the commercial side. So if you can split that, that would be helpful. The other question is on the Mobility division.
When we look through the future, what are the main moving parts on the revenue that we still need to see playing out on the negative side, the funding realignment, the used car sale, pricing? Can you give us some color on, on that? Thank you.
Thank you for your questions. We'll start with Pierre Palmieri, the Deputy CEO. So overseeing, among other things, this business, and then we'll move on to Claire on your NII question. Pierre?
Yes, well, thank you for the question. So, I think several things. First of all, on the margin, we have seen a stable margin, but in a context where the fleet was increasing, the net earning assets were increasing. So it means that we have seen in basis points, a decrease in the margin, which is something that is going to probably maintain to be a little bit lower than what we have seen in the past, but is being addressed by the management. Second, is the negative mark to market on the swaps. We have a mark-to-market of EUR 220 million today, that will progressively convert to zero, as the derivatives book will mature, and in line with the evolution of our leasing contracts.
These are the two negative trends. In terms of used car sales, I think we gave guidance of negative 1,200-1,600 for the full year. So this is the price post depreciation, and we may, I think, ALD is maintaining this guidance, and so are we.
So regarding NII, I will not come back to the assumptions related to rates and to outstanding, which are disclosed. To answer your question regarding hedging, so regarding balance sheet hedging, we slightly adjusted our balance sheet hedging with the sensitivity, which is disclosed at the bottom of this slide. And regarding the NII hedges, which is at the heart of your question, we have in Q3 an impact by EUR 500 million, and year to date, since the beginning of the year, we are around EUR 1.2 billion, out of the 1.6 we had disclosed at the Capital Markets Day.
Next question?
The next question is from Chris Hallam, with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, everybody. Just two from me. First, just if you could give us the profit drag from BoursoBank in the quarter, and, and on deposits, just to check, does the 2%-3% deposit growth you're talking about for 2024 on slide 15, does that include BoursoBank? If so, should we just assume that next year BoursoBank deposits are up and SG network deposits are down? And then secondly, on slide 41, on your US CRE portfolio, I know it's really small, but just looking at it, it looks like resi exposure ticked up since Q2, as well as the portion that's classified as S3, also increased sequentially.
So I just wanted to check what the plan is there. Is it just to sort of gradually manage down that overall exposure, or sort of keep it humming along at the current levels?
So, first question for Claire, and then Stéphane Landon, our CRO, will address the second one.
I will be short on the first one. Yes, the assumptions include BoursoBank.
I'm not sure I get the full part of the question, but if it's regarding the commercial real estate portfolio, what we can say at this stage is that there is no significant increase. I mean, it's if there is a slight increase, it's very marginal, and there is no intention at this stage to grow the portfolio where it is right now. The second part, which is regarding the S3, we have increased slightly the proportion of S3 through this quarter, yes.
Okay, thanks.
The next question is from Flora Bocahut with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. The first question is going back to Ayvens. It's a difficult quarter to read, I find, you know, there's many one-off, there is obviously the combination with LeasePlan, the restructuring, many things. So maybe, you know, a simple question there, but should we consider the reported numbers that you present, you know, for Ayvens today, or what it is in your mobility division as the trough, you know, the bottom? The reason why I'm saying this is, when I compare this to what was described as the normalized level of net profit, you know, at the CMD at the time, it looks like we are there at the net profit level this quarter. The second question is on the Corporate Center , because obviously the revenues were a bit lower than expected this quarter.
Part of that is one-off, the TLTRO hedge unwinding, which I think is over now. But then there is this big move again, you know, on the fair value of the swap. So maybe can you help us, how we should think about the normalized run rate of revenues for the Corporate Center , maybe on a full year basis? Thank you.
Thank you. So, Pierre, on Ayvens and Claire on the Corporate Center .
Yes, I understand the difficulty to read the results of Ayvens this quarter. So it's a function, first of all, the fact that, you know, we are in the process of an acquisition. We are also in the process of the post-closing adjustments, and therefore, you know, with the PPA should end before end of the year, and this will bring more clarity. We have some exceptional, such as the negative impact of the hedging book. With all this should normalize progressively, and I think, in the coming quarters, progressively, the numbers will be much easier to read and to compare one quarter to the other.
So, regarding the Corporate Center , we do not guide any revenues on the Corporate Center because by essence, it's volatile. What I can say, regarding the Corporate Center is at first, regarding the TLTRO, we had guided on a EUR 300 million impact, and we come to an end with the EUR 63 million. We still have few million EUR for the last quarter, but far less significant than the first quarter. Regarding volatility in the revenues, the mass of the impact is related to a base effect with a significant revenue last year. This year, we have slightly negative revenues, driven notably by the GBP rate curve , 1-5 years exactly. But most of the impact comes from a basis effect compared to last year.
Thank you.
The next question is from Matt Clark with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Two questions from me. The first one is going back to the long-term swap portfolio impact, which you disclosed at the Capital Markets Day. So the seven hundred million benefits for 2023, that was on slide 52, there. I just want to understand exactly what that represents, because comparing it to the EUR 15 billion of notional you get there, it implies a very, very high yield of kind of 8% or more on that portfolio. So I just want to understand if I'm missing something or, you know, what is the yield on that long-term swap portfolio at the moment to help understand what that EUR 700 million represents.
And then my second question is on the digital euro, and whether you see any impact on your business from that in the incoming years, threats or opportunities? Thanks.
Okay. If I understood well, your second question is on the digital euro. So, I'll say a few words, and then I'll pass on the floor to Claire on your first question. On the digital euro, let me put it this way. Like my first question is, I think as an industry, including in the industry, the regulators, the central bank, and everybody who's thinking about this evolution, I think we all want to make sure that we all understand what the purpose of that currency, so to speak, euro.
That's a tool for both the customers, obviously, there might be some benefits to the customers, but obviously also for the central bank and for us to understand how does that interact with the way the banking system functions and the way for the central bank I guess, the monetary policy functions. So the point I'm trying to make here is, I think we all need to understand better what the purpose of these developments would be. Now, second comment. We are more generally speaking, you know, through some of our developments in within GBIS, on the SG Forge side, very keen to experiment and design solutions for a world which is not fully here yet, but which might change in the future.
And making sure that in terms of digital assets, digital currencies, we have something eventually, which helps transparency, which helps disintermediation, which helps everybody basically be more active and more efficiently active in the financial system. So we don't expect a lot of impacts, positive or negative from this in the years to come, but we are, you know, very much engaged both with the central banks that are thinking about this, and also ourselves in terms of our own innovation and developments in the space. That's all I can say at this point. Claire?
Thanks. Regarding the swap portfolio, so excluding the short-term net interest margin, the portfolio didn't change significantly with the capital market day. This portfolio is the hedging of our, for example, real estate loan production or the replacement for deposits. So since mid-September capital market day, no significant change and no significant impact in the revenue. So we had disclosed for the capital market day, which were, as you said, 0.7 for this year, 0.3 for next year, and 10 to 0. So it may change with the course of business, considering our new loan production going forward, but at that stage, no material, no significant change in the amounts we disclosed.
Claire, can I just follow up? On that EUR 700 million, am I right to think that that's the spread between a fixed leg and a floating leg with EUR 15 billion notional? Is that the right way to look at it?
Yeah, it's an accrual, the NBI, which is closed on the swap portfolio, is exactly as you said, the gap between fixed and variable rate. But the only disclosure I may have is that we account in a macro hedging strategy, our results on an accrual basis. So it's results, not a mark to market for sure, and it's results on an accrual basis.
But then, I mean, if floating rates are currently 3%-4%, it implies a very high kind of fixed rate yield on that portfolio, like higher than risk-free rates have been historically. I don't quite understand how the yield can be so high then.
If I may just come back now also to the swap portfolio, as is the swap portfolio that hedges our balance sheet. The swap portfolio hedges, for example, our real estate loans, which are very long-term loans. It's a replacement of our deposits, so it's several maturities, and it's a portfolio that has been built over the years during the normal course of business. On a monthly basis, we hedge the daily production. That's why I'm not sure that it would be really relevant to have an approach with the notional and all that stuff, and that's why we thought that it was more efficient to disclose the accruals and the NBI, that at the end of the day will impact the net interest margin.
Okay. Thank you very much for that. Much appreciated.
The next question is from Delphine Lee with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning. So I just have a very few small questions. One on the French retail again, sorry. Just wanted to understand two things. Like, one, on the sensitivity, why is it now a bit lower to 10 basis points versus what you disclosed before? And secondly, also, on your deposits assumption of growth of 2%-3% for individuals, can you just explain what you think this is driven by? I mean, the trend so far has been a bit more difficult than that. And then my second question is on the payout for this year. Is the intention still to have a bit of buyback, and do you care about the actual DPS level?
I'm just trying to get a better understanding of, you know, what that mix would look like, and also if it would be, you know, the 40%, or, you know, how you look at this, given that your profits are a bit lower this year. Thank you.
Okay. So, thank you very much. Hello. So on the sensitivity, I leave the floor to Claire in two seconds. On the deposit dynamics and growth assumptions, I'll leave the floor to Philippe, deputy CEO in charge of, among other things, of French Retail Oversight. And I'll address now the distribution. So the distribution, a little bit along the lines of what I said in September. For 2023, the 40%-50% guidance applies. And given the year, right, which, as you see, you know, is a transitionary year, it leads to levels of, you know, potential distribution, which are, you know, obviously lower than in a normal year.
This is why I said that it's going to be an ad hoc decision of the board at the end of the year, when we have the annual books, in terms of what the mix will be and what the level will be. Now, in the context of the CMD, I think I also made clear that, in terms of our process of building up capital, it was, it would be fair to assume as a central scenario that we would be towards the lower end of the range, at the beginning of the trajectory, and potentially at the higher end of the range later on. Now, in the end, it's a board decision which will happen in January.
Claire, on the sensitivity and Philippe on the deposit dynamics.
Yeah, so regarding the sensitivity, yeah, to a ±10 basis points increase or decrease in the interest rates, we have, as I said during the presentation, slightly adjusted our hedges. We consider that we are at a high level of interest rates, so during our ALCO, I mean, ALM committee, chaired by Xavier, with all businesses around the table, we made a decision to slightly adjust this, let's say, risk appetite, and we disclosed it in this quarterly presentation. So we have slightly reduced the upside in case of additional rate increase, but slightly decreased also the loss in case of a small decrease in the interest rates.
Considering the fact that swaps has been done at market conditions, it does have no significant impact on the accruals, if I refer to the previous question.
Okay, thank you for your question regarding the deposits. So here we have various drivers. The first one regarding corporates, it's yes, we take into account a shift from sight deposit to a term deposit, and more globally, from deposits to, you know, money market funds, or in-house treasury deposits. And what is important for us with the corporates is, of course, to monitor closely the situation, not only the deposits themselves, but also the flows, you know, around all activities of cash management. Regarding individuals, the deposits remain very resilient. We've also a shift from sight deposit to term deposits, notably for private banking clients.
Also, you know, we continue to have a solid increase in our assets under management regarding life insurance. So basically, we take into account the combination of all these elements, keeping in mind that, of course, taking care of the savings and deposits of our clients, it's critical both for them and for us.
Okay, thanks for the color. Thank you.
The next question is from Amit Goel with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. Two questions from me. The first, actually, just on NII, but coming back to the 2023 expectation. So just wanted to understand a bit more in terms of why, why that expectation has also been revised kind of downwards, and if there is any kind of inflation hedge impact there too? And then the second question, just in terms of the capital development in the quarter, so there was the kind of 16 basis points benefit also from organic RWA development. I just want to check, is that just kind of loan book contraction, or is there any kind of optimization in there? And, you know, if we are to model kind of loan growth going forwards, so would that piece be reversing? Thank you.
All right, thank you very much. I'll talk about the organic RWA, and I'll leave the floor to Claire on the NII question. So on the organic growth, it's two things. I mean, you know, it's an important component of our thinking going forward. And so, yes, clearly, we are making sure that we constantly work on optimizing these trends and our consumption of capital in our businesses. But it's also linked with seasonality, simply this year. It's not impossible that we would have a slight growth, let's say a higher growth pace in Q4, but within the general strategy that we have described in the long term, with the figures that we provided you with during the CMD, with no average organic RWA growth for most of the businesses outside of Ayvens and Boursorama.
So that's on capital, on the NII, Claire?
So on the NII, we revised downward the guidance, but not that significantly, it's to be fully transparent, slightly above 20%. So it's a mix of impact from the end of the remuneration of the mandatory reserves, to some moves in the outstandings and on the level of margins. And as we come closer to the end of the year, we have a clearer view on the end of year estimate. So, we are more comfortable with disclosing it above 20%, which will not be far from 20%.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Pierre Chedeville with CIC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Before asking my two question, I would like to make a remark regarding the quarterly series. I think it would be useful for us to have a subtotal in the French Private Banking, a subtotal of French Retail and Private Banking, and then Insurance. It would be much more easier for us. And also regarding leasing mobility and consumer credit, I don't understand why you don't isolate credit consumer, because now you decide to speak about that. So once again, it would be useful for us because it's a big chunk of the three business, which are quite different. My two questions now. The first question related to the Insurance business.
We can see that casualty is working quite well, but protection is quite stagnant, and I was wondering if you had the ambitions regarding protection, because it's a segment that works very well, actually, in France. And it's something maybe you could tell us about your ambitions regarding protection. And it would be also useful if you could [inaudible]
We can't hear you anymore, and it's not us.
Mr. Chedeville , your line is open. The next question is from Anke Reingen, with RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. I'll be quick, and hopefully I can come back. I would just on the transformation costs, it'd be helpful to be able to see yeah, the underlying progress and the cost development, and therefore could you maybe give us by division, the transformation cost at the nine-month stage? And do you have any more visibility on transformation costs in 2024? And then just one housekeeping from the Capital Markets Day. In terms of the Basel IV impact, the 85 basis points, can you split it down by division, please? Thank you.
Thank you. I'll leave the floor to Claire on both, but also we can potentially have a follow-up later on with the teams, just not to spend too much time on this, but Claire.
Yeah. I will answer at least to your first question, because I'm not sure I have properly heard your second one. So regarding CTE, I understand that you want a breakdown per division of the EUR 145 million CTE we have this quarter. It's exactly EUR 46 million for the French Retail, EUR 51 million for GBIS, and EUR 58 million for the last pillar, of which EUR 48 million for ALD. Regarding the full year guidance, so we had guided this year on a around EUR 800 million CTE for the year, so we confirm at that stage this guidance. And regarding 2024, it's a little bit early to guide.
We had explained during the Capital Markets Day, I did so, that a significant part, most of the CTE for the 2024-2026 period of time would be booked in 2024. It will be the case, but we probably will guide more, as usual, during the last quarter, and we never do that during the third quarter.
The second question was, the 85 basis points of Basel IV impact we discussed at CMD, per business.
Yeah. So, at the CMD, we had guided on 85 basis points, I'm sorry. We do not disclose at that stage the impact per business, but what we do is that we disclose a breakdown, the type of impact. And if I may say, when you have the type of impact, it's quite easy to link with the businesses, but that's my personal point of view. So, the impact is 40% related to market risk, 45% related to operational risk, and as you know, it's a formula. It's 10% CVA and 5% credit risk. So these things stay, I'm quite comfortable potentially in your capability to have the breakdown for business, but we will guide more precisely before the impact.
Okay, thank you. I was looking for the nine-month transformation cost by division, but I'll follow up with IR to keep this going.
No, okay, okay. But I can give you the nine-month 330 French Retail, 102 GBIS, 195 IBFS, of which 168 ALD.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Kiri Vijayarajah , with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone. Just the one question left on my side, mainly for Slawomir, I guess. So look, when you look at the ALD share price, unfortunately only seems to move in one direction at the moment. But at what point do you say, "Look, enough is enough," and think about delisting ALD and taking it private again? Clearly, you think it's, you know, a great business, but the market doesn't really agree, and of course, as you've shown in your own numbers, you know, ALD is accretive to your SocGen Group.
ROE, so, you know, why not think about increasing your exposure to that, particularly as you can, you know, pick up the minorities now at a chunky discount to book value. So just your thoughts on that, please, Slawomir. Thank you.
Listen, I'm an investment bank, right? So, you're describing a financial equation, which obviously is theoretically interesting. Now, the reality is, in my own view, the long-term prospects for growth, profit generation, ability to be an actor of fundamental transformations of mobility, obviously not just an actor for the sake of it, but in terms of further ability to grow and to generate a good profitability, are prospects which should be in the long term, in the mid- to long-term, attractive to potential ALD shareholders or Ayvens shareholders. And, in this sense, I think, you know, we, we had that intuition a few years ago to, to list this, company, to, help it grow. And I think the, the growth story is still compelling.
Right now, we have noise because of the integration, and the number of exceptional items. We have noise because of, guidance adjustments, et cetera. It's all fair, but the story is compelling, and it's going to be compelling for ALD, Ayvens shareholders, and, right now there's no products to, change anything in the structure of the group from this perspective.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
The final question is from Jacques-Henri Gaulard with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I have two, maybe, three very quickly. The first one, obviously, this Capital Markets Day was very humbling for me, personally, to be honest, and, and for the, for the sell side, I guess also a little bit as, as a whole in terms of stock price reaction. Did you draw any lessons about what happened there, at management level, and can you share it with us? The other two is to come back to, what, Flora said. On ALD and for the forecast, I want to make sure I understand that I should not account for used car sales for LeasePlan until year-end. Is that correct? And then resume used car sales forecasting in 2024, is that the right way to look at it?
And lastly, on the Corporate Center , the negative impact from the change in market value of replacement swap, is that recurring next year at all? Is there any way to or it's something we can drop? Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you for your questions. I'll start with the one that is for me. I'll leave the floor to Pierre for ALD and Ayvens, and then quickly to Claire on your last one. So, I mean, it's not my job to be delivering market commentary on what- why things happen, et cetera. What I can tell you is, I feel, I mean, I think that it was well understood, very strongly, together with the team and the board, about the roadmap we designed. It's the right one for this company at this point of its history. It's going to make it stronger and more sustainable in the future, and delivering levels of reported performance in terms of absolute level and volatility, which will be a massive improvement from our recent track record.
From this perspective, our objectives, I think, are very clear and very good for the company and for its long-term shareholders. And the means that we decided to use to reach this objective, which is a mix of, you know, I'm not gonna do the CMD again, but of moderate growth in terms of organic RWA , cost reductions, sound capital management, et cetera, are again, I think, the ones we had at our disposal. We chose a mix between the contribution of everybody, basically the company, the businesses, in terms of cost reductions, et cetera, the shareholders, in terms of some minor adjustments to distribution policy. I think, you know, it's the right thing to do, right?
Then, it's our job, and it's only fair, from the investor community, to wait or to see how we're delivering quarter by quarter on our roadmap, and to expect from us a high level of high quality delivery, right? That's on what we're focused today, and that's how we think about it, right? And then, you know, market dynamics over one day, I mean, you know, we could discuss all the things that happened in the market in the recent days. You know, I mean, I'm not sure you can always make sense of the short-term reactions of the market. We are focused on the substance, and we will deliver our roadmap.
Thank you.
In terms of ALD forecast, Pierre?
Yes, I think the question was about the used car sales, the accounting for used car sales profit, regarding LeasePlan . So, the answer is that yes, until we go to the end of the PPA, you know, the fleet of LeasePlan is going to be accounted for at fair value, and therefore, we are not going to account for used car sales profits, until the end of the year, and then progressively, going forward, we will account for used car sales profit as they occur.
Claire?
No, regarding the Corporate Center , we do not guide for next year.
Okay. Thank you very much, Monsieur Chedeville.
So we have Pierre back. So I have the first question. We're ready to hear the second one.
So the very last follow-up question is from Pierre Chedeville with CIC. Please go ahead. Mr. Chedeville, we cannot hear you. Maybe your line is on mute. Mr. Chedeville, we cannot hear you. Maybe you muted yourself. Please check your microphone.
All right, let me do the following, right? First of all, Pierre had two comments or requests. They're well noted. Although, you know, we have an approach in disclosures, and I'm not sure we're gonna change everything just based on this request, but we'll take notes of it, and we'll give it some thought. In terms of your first question, I'll leave the floor to Philippe. At least you will have the transcript in terms of the protection part of the insurance business. What are our ambitions and expectations?
So, yes. So, as you know, I think we can say that life insurance, it's part of our DNA for a long time. That's true, but regarding protection, you know, it's still a, you know, an area where we have room for improvement, and we know that it's very important to provide these products and services to our clients. As mentioned, during the capital market days, that's one of our objective to fill the gap, because there is a gap in protection equipment. So, our insurance company, you know, is working, you know, in full collaboration with the networks, you know, and I think we have now a complete, competitive offering. We have also increased, you know, the digitalization of the customer journeys.
We are reinforcing, you know, the training efforts for our sales forces. And simultaneously, we are also, you know, leveraging the platform of Assurances to sell directly this project, you know, to the clients of the network, but also to other clients. So definitely an area when there is a momentum and which will contribute to our trajectory in the coming years with over time, you know, fill a gap. And again, we are targeting significant progress in this area.
So lots of ambitions, and bringing the two businesses together closer was part of addressing the ambitions we have there. Thank you very much. Thank you for joining the call and all your questions, and have a nice afternoon. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Société Générale conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.