Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Société Générale conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Slawomir Krupa, Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending this conference call on the 2023 full year results. Before we dive into the numbers, let's take a step back and try and highlight some of the year's key business achievements. First, the strong performance throughout the year of our core activities within both GBIS, Global Banking and Investor Solutions, and within International Retail Banking. Second, in line with which we announced in September, Boursorama significantly accelerated its growth to reach 6 million clients in January after 2 consecutive record quarters in terms of acquisition. Today, around one in 10 French people are clients of Boursorama. It's a key milestone, obviously, and something we're very proud of.
At the same time, the merger of the networks is progressing well in France, and NII has begun to recover in Q4 2023 from the trough reached in the third quarter, as we have previously discussed. Finally, the dissemination of LeasePlan's PPA was a key milestone, obviously, for Ayvens, whose NBI was, however, affected by non-recurring items, a strong base effect on UCS and by pressure on margins. This leads to yearly revenues standing at EUR 25.1 billion and EUR 6 billion for the fourth quarter, down from a very high comparison level in 2022, mostly due to lower NII in France, as previously discussed, and exceptional items at the corporate center related to TLTRO and a few legacy issues.
Thanks to our initial growth, savings, growth in operating expenses has been contained in 2023, despite inflation, and it's even broadly stable at constant perimeter, leading to a reported cost to income ratio around 74% in 2023. At 17 basis points for the year and 24 basis points for Q4 2023, the cost of risk remained low throughout the year, and we maintained a high S1, S2 inventory at EUR 3.6 billion. Overall, the group net income stands at EUR 2.5 billion for 2023, with a reported ROTE of 4.2%, and it is respectively EUR 430 million and 1.7% in Q4 2023. The capital ratio, CET1 ratio, is strong and well above requirement at 13.1%.
In line with the distribution policy that we presented in September, we will therefore be proposing a total distribution of roughly EUR 1 billion to the AGM, equivalent to EUR 1.25 per share, with the following split: a dividend of EUR 0.90 per share, paid in cash on May 29th, and an SBB program of roughly EUR 280 million, which is 0.35 euro per share. If we move on to slide 4, you know, we can focus on 2024, and after the year of transition and transformation, our priorities can be summed up in one simple word, execution.
It will be a decisive year for the implementation of our strategic roadmap, with the launch or finalization of numerous projects and initiatives, which are listed on the following slide for the main ones. But we'll focus on a few core priorities. First and foremost, we must constantly enhance our commercial performance, our performance with our clients, which is key, to generate sustainable performance overall. Equally important is our commitment to have a linear improvement of operational efficiency, and in 2024, we intend to generate around EUR 500 million in additional growth savings and our total within our total target of EUR 1.7 billion between 2022 and 2026.
At the same time, we'll book roughly EUR 750 million-EUR 800 million of CTA out of the EUR 1 billion planned for the period going from 2024 to 2026. We'll also continue to make sure that our business portfolio has the right balance between diversification, synergies, risk profile, and profitability. Delivering on our ESG agenda remains a key focus, which I will come back to in a few minutes. Maintaining a strong liquidity profile and a high capital ratio are obviously key priorities for the group, and as announced during the CMD, we will be very disciplined in terms of RWA growth for our businesses and in terms of capital allocation, organic capital allocation. For the year, the organic RWA growth is expected below 1%.
We will continue to manage our businesses with strong and disciplined risk principles at the highest standards. This is our job, this is what banking is about. In terms of financial targets, we stick to our guidance of a linear improvement in profitability towards our 2026 targets, and this leads us to set the following targets for 2024: an increase in revenues of more than 5% compared to 2023. I insist, 2023. A cost-to-income ratio below 71% in 2024, a cost of risk comprised between 25 and 30 basis points for the year, a ROTI above 6%, and a CET1 ratio around 13% by the end of the year. And for 2026, our target is unchanged, with the CET1 ratio at 13% post Basel IV.
The main projects that will be implemented in 2024 are listed in the slide. I will not comment each and every one of them, of course, but as we indicated in September, they include both ongoing projects, which will start to bear fruits this year for many of them, and new initiatives designed to structurally improve the group's operational efficiency. And in this respect, I would just like to mention the latest initiative that we disclosed last Monday related to the headquarters. We announced that we plan to implement organizational changes in our head office in France.
The project is submitted for consultation to the employee representative bodies in France, and its objective is to regroup and pool certain activities and functions, remove some hierarchical layers, streamline decision-making, and resize certain teams after a review of the projects portfolio and a number of processes. And it would result in around 900 job cuts, representing around 5% of head office staff. And this project would generate gross savings, which will be part of our EUR 1.7 billion of savings we target between 2022 and 2026. In terms of our ESG agenda, as you know, building, sustaining our ESG leadership is a core driver of our strategy.
This is important to take a couple minutes to highlight a few achievements and some priorities for 2024. We significantly accelerated in terms of ESG commitments last year. Once again, we took a leading position in taking landmark decisions to sharply reduce some of our exposure to fossil fuels and to define new targets on decarbonization. We set a new commitment on diversity and signed a new partnership with The Ocean Cleanup. For instance, it's an imperative for us and a continuing focus. Today, we published two new alignment targets on aluminum and shipping, which brings us to nine sectors covered among the twelve sectors required under our Net Zero Banking Alliance commitment, the twelve sectors defined by the NZBA as the most carbon emissive.
It's also part of our roadmap , and we disclosed recently a new collaboration agreement with the IFC to accelerate in sustainable finance and increase our positive impact, and strengthen our contribution to reaching the sustainable development goals defined by the United Nations. A key milestone has been reached recently, also with the appointment of Professor Subra Suresh as chairman of our new Scientific Advisory Council. It's an honor to welcome him, such a distinguished scientific leader to chair the council, whose role will be to advise the group on long-term challenges and how we can best increase our positive impact from a science-based approach.
Last, and it's a good testimony to our ESG leadership, we've been just appointed IFR Bank for Sustainability and World's Best Bank for Sustainable Finance for the third time by Global Finance. Thank you very much, and I leave the floor to Claire. She's going to walk us through some of the details.
Thank you, Slawomir. So let's move on to slide 8 on revenues. In 2023, total revenues reached EUR 25.1 billion, including EUR 6 billion for the last quarter. Overall, annual revenues are comparable to 2019 and 2021, but down versus the high 2022, which benefited from a conducive environment, particularly in markets for GBIS and on used car sales through Ayvens. In addition, as stated last year, the top line has been negatively impacted in 2023 by both the impact of the short-term hedges in French retail, which peaked in Q3, before progressively rebounding over the coming quarters, and some exceptional items, mostly related to the unwinding of the hedges on TLTRO, one-off legacy issues, and volatile items at the corporate center.
Last, the change in perimeter resulted in a net positive contribution of around EUR 460 million in 2023, due to the integration of LeasePlan, which contributed around EUR 680 million to the 2023 revenue base, excepting the withdrawal from Russia. For the fourth quarter, annual trends were confirmed with, on the one hand, solid performance of GBIS, slightly down versus the record Q4 last year, and continued strong revenues in international retail banking. On the other hand, while progressing compared with last quarter, the NII in French retail was still lower by around EUR 320 million versus Q4... and revenues at Ayvens were impacted by exceptional items, in addition to continued normalization in used car sales and pressure on margins.
Note that for 2024, we expect the revenues to increase by more than 5%, largely thanks to the strong rebound in NII in France. Let's now have a look at the operational performance on slide 9. For the full year, the cost base stands at EUR 18.5 billion. It's up by around EUR 500 million compared with 2022, due exclusively to the impact of the change in perimeter. Stripping out this effect, the cost base remains broadly stable in 2023 versus last year. Even excluding the positive impacts of the reduction in the contribution to the SRF, the Single Resolution Fund, and the decrease in transformation charges compared with 2022, operating expenses have only increased by around 1.7% in 2023, or EUR 300 million, despite the ongoing inflationary context. This illustrates, once again, our strict and disciplined management of costs.
All of this leads to a reported cost income ratio slightly below 74% for 2023. Going forward, as indicated at the CMD, we expect a linear improvement of the cost income ratio for 2024 onwards, and we first target a cost income ratio below 71% in 2024. Let's now move on the next slide, slide 10, on the cost of risk. It remains contained across businesses, thanks to the quality of our assets, with no material deterioration, but continued normalization in some sectors. At group level, it stands at 24 basis points in Q4 and seventeen basis points in 2023, better than guidance. For the quarter, the cost of risk amounts to around three hundred and sixty million euros.
The NPL ratio remains low and stable compared to Q3 at 2.9%, and the net coverage ratio, post-collateral and guarantees, is high at around 80%. In addition, precautionary provision on Stage 1 and 2 assets remains stable and high at EUR 3.6 billion, and still represents around 2.8 times the amount of Stage 3 cost of risk in 2019. Going forward, we expect for 2024, the cost of risk in line with the guidance provided during the capital market day, i.e., a cost of risk between 25-30 basis points. Let's now turn to capital, Slide 6, slide 11. At the end of December, the cost income ratio lands at 13.1%.
It's still around 340 basis points above MDA and 290 basis points over the new regulatory requirement since the first of January 2024. Apart from organic capital generation, which added 9 basis points this quarter, post distribution, the main change since the last quarter has come from organic RWAs, mainly due to some delay in the deal flow, as we indicated last quarter, continued growth in Ayvens earning assets, and model evolutions. On the regulatory front, the residual impact, which was anticipated in 2023, is now expected for next year. Finally, the cost income ratio benefited in Q4 from a total of 6 basis points, following the publication of the PPA by Ayvens and the closing of the sale of SG Congo.
All in all, risk-weighted assets amount to EUR 389 billion at the end of 2023, and the other capital ratios all remain comfortably above requirements. For 2024, we expect the cost income ratio to be around 13% at the end of the year, with a limited RWA organic growth below 1%. Moving on to liquidity, slide 12. As illustrated in the chart, Société Générale has a sound liquidity profile, which has been further strengthened over the last quarter and a strong balance sheet. Liquidity reserves have further increased by EUR 7 billion in Q4, to reach EUR 316 billion at the end of the year, and the LCR ratio stands at 160%. Deposits grew by 1% compared with last quarter, and by 4% versus last year.
Lastly, around 80% of the 2024 funding program have been already achieved at the end of January 2024. I will not comment slide 13. We can now turn to business performance, starting with French Retail on slide 15. On the credit side, loans outstanding decreased by 5% compared with last year, with still differentiated trends between retail and corporate. The activity with corporate remains good, with loans up +1% versus Q4, excluding PGE state-guaranteed loans, still driven by short-term loans. On the other hand, state-guaranteed loans continued being repaid, decreasing by 32% in 2023 versus last year. With individuals, the group's selective approach in home loan production, which began mid-2022, in a context of insufficient margin, continued to weigh on home loan outstanding, which are down by -2% compared to Q3.
However, production is now restarting in a context of improving margins. On the deposit side, outstandings are slightly down by -1.8% versus Q3, with a continued shift towards saving products in a higher rate environment. On savings, total assets under management have grown in 2023 across businesses. In Private Banking, they are up +5% compared with last year, reaching a record level of EUR 143 billion, thanks to a robust pace of asset gathering at +4% for the year. In life insurance, outstanding are up +4% to EUR 136 billion versus last year, with growth inflows amounting to EUR 3.5 billion, which represents an increase of 20% compared with last year.
On protection insurance, premia increased by 4%, that is Q4 last year, with P&C premia outperforming up by +6% versus last year, driven notably by France. Let's now give an update on the French retail banking net interest income, slide 16. As confirmed last quarter, NII reached a trough in Q3 and began to slightly recover in Q4, as expected and communicated. Based on the assumptions presented in the slide, we confirm that the linear progression of the NII is expected over the coming quarter, and that we expect 2024 NII to be at or above 2022 levels. In terms of NII sensitivity, it's now at around +EUR 10 million in year one, and around +EUR 20 million in year two for a 10 basis points rate increase.
Note that this sensitivity is in relation to the forward curve shown in the slide, which is slightly higher than the rate curve taken into account in the financial trajectory. Sensitivity on site deposits remains stable at around EUR 30 million for a movement of EUR 1 billion outstanding. A few words now on Boursorama, slide 17. For the second quarter in a row, Boursorama posted record client acquisition with 566,000 new clients. 2023 also marked a record in terms of annual organic growth, with a net increase of 1.2 million clients in 2023, to reach 5.9 million by the end of 2023. As indicated by Slawomir, it should be noted that the 6 million mark was reached in January 2024.
At the end of 2023, around 1 French person out of 10 were already clients of Boursorama, equivalent to a penetration rate of 8.8%, which is rising steadily and rapidly. Similarly, around 20% of French adults under the age of 30 are clients of Boursorama. On the commercial side, assets under administration reached EUR 56 billion at the end of 2023, with notably a strong increase in deposits at 17% at a pace largely above market trend. Loan outstanding is slightly down, which is consistent with the proactive decision taken in 2023 to reduce significantly home loan production. On the financial front, acquisition costs per client have further decreased versus last year, as well as the cost to serve my clients, which decreased by 10% compared to 2022, and 27% versus 2021.
Once again, this illustrates the very high efficiency of the model, which can rely on a structurally low cost base. Let's now move to the PNL, slide 18. The French Retail Banking activities, including Private Banking and Insurance, generated a net profit of EUR 92 million in Q4. Total revenues, excluding PGE, are down -13% versus Q4 last year, due to the pressure on the net interest income, as explained in the dedicated slide. On a yearly basis, net interest income, excluding PGE, is down -22% in full year, in line with the guidance provided last quarter. As in the present quarter, financial fees remain solid, and the decrease in commission versus last quarter 2022 is mainly due to the impact of acquisition costs at Boursorama, and to service fees in the network.
Regarding costs, they are down in Q4 by a substantial -7% compared with last year, illustrating the strict ongoing cost management and the initial benefits of the merger. Cost of risk remains contained at 27 basis points in Q4, and 20 basis points for the full year. Finally, the reported ROE comes at 2.4% in Q4, and 3.9% for the full year. Turning on to global markets and investor services on slide 19. On global markets, Q4 is a near record level, with EUR 1.2 billion revenue contribution, slightly down versus a record Q4 in 2022. Overall, equity activities performed very well in Q4, up 18% compared to last year. The revenue contribution remained high in the fourth quarter on the back of supportive market conditions for equities, with notably strong client demand for derivative products.
On a yearly basis, revenues are down by only 3% versus a record year in 2022. On fixed income, performance was resilient in a less conducive market environment. Revenues are down -22% compared to a very high Q2 last year, but in line with the average achieved in Q4 over the last 5 years. The decrease mostly resulted from lower rate volatility, which led to lower volume in the rate flow business. On the other hand, we continue to observe the solid commercial momentum in investment solutions. On a yearly basis, FIC recorded a strong contribution at EUR 2.4 billion, down just -7% compared to last year, which was the best year on record.
At GMIS level, revenues are down -9% versus last year, mainly due to a strong base effect within security services, whose revenues were positively impacted by the revaluation of our stake in Euroclear for an amount of EUR 91 million last year. Let's move on to slide 20. Financing and advisory delivered a good performance in comparison to a record quarter in Q4 last year. At EUR 826 million, revenues in Q4 are down -14% versus last year, but more than 20% higher than the average between 2017 and 2021, Q4. On a yearly basis, they are slightly down by -1% versus a record 2022, at EUR 3.3 billion.
This trend is found within GLBA, whose commercial activity has remained solid in most businesses, but whose overall revenues in Q4 2023 are down -14% versus Q4 2022, due to a very high basis of comparison. On transaction banking, revenues remained at a very high level in Q4 compared with past years, while being down -13% versus Q4 last year, notably due to higher deposit beta with corporates. Overall, slide 21. GBIS delivered once again, both in Q4 and on an annual basis, a very good set of results, despite a less conducive environment than in 2022. Quarterly revenues are down -11% in Q4 compared to last year, and slightly down -5% versus 2022, which was a record year. Costs are well contained given the inflationary context.
They are up 3% on a reported basis in Q4, including EUR 64 million of transformation charges, and a decrease by -1% in 2023 on a full year basis. The reported pre-tax income stands at 73% in Q4, and 65% for 2023, excluding the contribution to the SRF. Customer risk has remained very low through the year, with only EUR 30 million for the full year, representing only two basis points, thanks to a both very good asset quality and some few write-backs, notably on rational values. All in all, it's once again a solid quarter, with a reported 12.3% ROE in Q4, and 17% excluding SRF for the full year of 2023. Let's now turn to the international retail banking on slide 22. Commercial performance overall was well-oriented, at 5% versus 2022, both for loans and deposit outstanding.
In Europe, loans were up 5% in Q4, that is last year, with a good momentum across segments in both countries. Deposits increased by 8%, driven by KB. In Africa, loan growth is driven by a dynamic performance in sub-Saharan Africa, while the positive trend in deposits mainly comes from Mediterranean basin. In terms of profitability, the division posted a robust ROE at 18%, both on a quarterly or annual basis. The ROE is higher by 1 percentage point versus Q4 last year, and 6 percentage points on a yearly basis. Regarding our mobility and leasing services division on slide 23, total revenues increased by 9% in 2023 compared to last year, due to the integration of LeasePlan, which contributed for EUR 678 million in the 2023 revenue base.
On a quarterly basis, revenues are down -11% at the division level, mostly due to the decrease by 17% at Ayvens. In addition to the exceptional items disclosed in Ayvens press release last January, notably on the negative impact of the mark-to-market of LeasePlan swap portfolio for about EUR 150 million. This decrease results from, on the one hand, the progressive normalization in used car sales results and the reduction in prospective depreciation as guided. And on the other hand, pressure on margin, mainly driven by inflation and rate environment in a competitive market. Regarding consumer finance, commercial activity remained good, with loans up by 1%, deposits by 17% versus last year. Quarterly revenues were resilient compared to Q4 last year. Finally, equipment finance leasing outstanding are up by 3% versus 2022.
Revenues increased strongly, both on the quarterly basis, they are up 15%, and on an annual basis with an increase of 6%. Let's now have a close look at Ayvens' 2024 outlook on slide 24. 2024 will be a key transformation year for Ayvens, which will pursue the integration of LeasePlan with important milestones. As a result, costs to achieve will peak at -EUR 190 million in 2024, before significantly decreasing from 2025. At the same time, Ayvens will begin to benefit from initial synergies linked to the ongoing integration of LeasePlan, expected around EUR 120 million, before significantly increasing in 2025 and 2026. On the commercial front, Ayvens will ensure an active portfolio and order book management to optimize the allocation of scarce resources and progressively improve margins over time.
On used car sales, we still expect the normalization of the used car market to converge toward the pre-COVID levels. In that context, Ayvens guides on the following for 2024: First, a +7% to +9% growth in earnings assets in 2024 compared to 2023. Second, an average UCF results per unit between 1,100 and 1,600 EUR, excluding prospective depreciation. And finally, the cost income ratio between 65.7% to 67% at Ayvens, excluding UCF results, non-recurring items, and PPA. At SG level and on a full reported basis, it translates into a cost income ratio around 70%. All in all, slide 25. International Retail Mobility and Leasing Services foster ROE at 16.5% in 2023, and around 11% in Q4.
On the annual basis, revenues increased by 5% in 2023 versus last year, including the contribution of LeasePlan. They are down 5% on a quarterly basis versus Q4 last year, in particular, due to the one-off impact at Ayvens, just mentioned. Conversely, international retail publishes in Q4 a solid growth of 2% in its revenues. At the same time, costs increased by 26% in Q4 and by 20% on an annual basis. This rise is mainly due to the integration of LeasePlan for around EUR 620 million, and to the impact of double-digit inflation in the different regions where we operate. Accordingly, the cost income ratio increases to 56% in 2023, that is 49% in 2022.
On customer risk, it remains low at 33 basis points in Q4 and 32 in 2023, down from 40 basis points in Q4 and 52 basis points in 2022. On the corporate center, slide 26. For the last time, revenues were impacted in Q4 by the unwinding of the hedges on TLTRO for around EUR 30 million on a total annual amount of around EUR 330 million, as announced in addition. Furthermore, in a context of sharp drops in long-term rates, volatile items related to group hedge portfolio, not eligible for hedge accounting, impacted revenues by around EUR 100 million. Last, we have increased by EUR 100 million the provision of deferred tax assets activated in Q4. As a reminder, this is neutral in terms of quarter one and distribution. I will now let the floor to Slawomir for the conclusion.
Thank you, Claire. This wraps up 2023. And looking ahead at 2024, we are confident, we are committed to and focused on execution. The upcoming year will see a rebound in revenues and an improvement in operation efficiency, and we will maintain a strong balance sheet and continue to work on simplifying our business model. You will find on the last slide how we will be presenting from now on and updating on a regular basis the progress report showing our path to reaching our 2026 financial targets in deep transparency... and you will have this presented regularly from now on. So let's now move to the Q&A.
Thank you for joining the conference, for having listened to the presentation, and let's have our Q&A session with the usual rule, which we find efficient of two questions per person, and the floor is yours.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your phone keypad. Please ask your question in English. The first question is from Azzurra Guelfi of Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I have two questions. One is on your target, and the other one is on capital. When I look at your target, it seems they embed quite a few degree of conservatism, for example, on the CIB revenue development or the front loading of some transformation costs. So that could lead to potential, if you want, positive development over the year and possibly higher development in 2025 once the effect of the transformation are in place. Can you give us some color on how do you see the transformation anticipation into 2025 as well? And when I look at capital, capital was actually better. You started to distribute a bit more than what consensus was expecting. Can you give us some color about the development of the risk-weighted assets?
Because the improvement continues in CIB, and so that's one area that there could be more optimization on the corporate center. And the other one, if risk-weighted asset development is positive, can you give us some color already on the payout for 2024? Thank you.
Hello, Azzurra. Thank you for your questions. I'll take them both, unless Claire wants to add something after I'm finished. But, so, usual conversation on how conservative the CIB guidances are. I think, and I've been saying this regularly, I think it's you have it, right? It's a range, right? We try to start off the mid range point in terms of just to give you some color, right? I mean, just in terms of how we think about the structural, for instance, cost base of this business, right? How do we try and run the business in an efficient way, in a resilient way, from a cost-based perspective.
This is why we stick to this midpoint of the range we gave you, but you know, giving you the range, yes, we admit upfront that in better market conditions, and these past few years have been on the better side if we compare them with the last 15. It can change, right? So obviously you know, against a better market condition context, you know, the target is conservative. Against the opposite of good market conditions, the target is not conservative, right? It's middle of the range of let's say, 2 basic potential outcomes. So it is a reasonable one, right?
In terms of transformation costs and your overall question about how much upside, if that's how I understand your question, how much upside and maybe additional upside there is from 25 and ultimately on the targets. It's a little bit of the same answer, which is, at this point, we have a lot of things to do still in terms of simplifying the business model, in terms of delivering on all of the efficiency projects, and there are, again, numerous and significant in nature. And so we believe that, again, right, in terms of a base case scenario, we stick to what we said.
So we stick to the 2026 targets, and we stick to the broadly linear path to reach them across most of the indicators. So that's what I can tell you this morning. In terms of capital and RWA, again, we believe that the trajectory we described in September 2023 with various points in time is still valid. And we believe that the combination of everything we do in terms of limiting the organic growth, working on the efficiency of our capital allocation and capital usage, et cetera, we will deliver this target.
Maybe too, just to wrap it up, so right now, the base case scenario remains the same in terms of both the goal and the trajectory to get there. But maybe I'll wrap up by saying, are we trying to do better? Are we working on trying to do better? Yes, right. But at this point in time, can we make a different commitment in terms of targets and trajectory? No. But are we trying to do better? Yes.
The next question is from Tarik El Mejjad of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Slawomir, good morning, Claire. Two questions from my side as well. First one, I'll take a step back. I think you are very happy to see 2023 behind you, for sure. And you finished your remark saying that you want to give maximum clarity and, and, and show progress in your, in your turnaround of the story.
... Now, I think markets get some comfort on the mechanical improvements in the French retail, slightly improvement in Avance, due to normally, from the back of, I mean, the main normalization with car sales already happened, CIB resilience. But, can you comment on what's the likelihood to still see a lot of noise from adjustments, one-off, and so on, especially that you moved into a reported basis? I think that blurs a lot, the picture and the hard work you're probably doing, behind. And, and corporate center, I mean, I really want to comment on that specifically, and then on corporate center as well. We all assume that this is a kind of less volatile item now, but, Q4 it came quite, quite volatile and impacted your distributable income there as well.
So can you give us indication how to look at that line, which is always difficult to forecast? And then one question on capital. Can you take us the moving parts on 2024? I think, Claire, you said that TRIM will move to next year. Did you mean next year as of, 'cause you were talking about 2023, as of this year or move to 2025? And what are the other moving parts, and is Basel IV still the same number? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Tarek. If I'm good at math, this is three questions, but, you know, let's make an exception. I'm happy that 2023 is behind, you know, I guess I am a little bit, but in terms of the core question about the adjustments, one-offs, et cetera, let me tell you that, you know, I thought that the previous way of reporting was blurred. You know, I hope that reporting on the reported basis is going to add clarity, not the opposite. I mean, that was clearly the intention. At this point in time, we do not expect any material one-offs, et cetera.
I mean, you've been following banks for a quite long time, and you know, it's true for any other corporate firm as well. I mean, we can encounter all kinds of situations, but right now, we don't have any expectation of material one-offs to be taken in the following years. So, that's one, and then, corporate center, Claire? And quarter one, yeah.
Yeah. Hi, Tarek, I will answer your questions 2 and 3 on corporate center volatility and on quarter one. For me, next year is 2024, because as a CFO, I'm still working on 2023. So tonight, 2024 will start, but until tonight, I'm still in 2023. So regarding corporate center, the volatile NBI is linked to hedges that are booked in the corporate center for our balance sheet. So as a reminder, the balance sheet of the corporate center is mostly composed of own firm equity investments in subsidiaries, so treasury instruments in various currencies. So the group hedges those items against the interest risk through derivatives, and part of these derivatives are not eligible for hedge accounting, so they are accounted for in mark-to-market.
The sensitivity of this portfolio is EUR 9 million for 10 basis points, but it's spread among currencies, which are mainly euro, K, Czech koruna, and pound, which are the main drivers of the volatility, and dollars for sure. This is for the corporate center. And as a reminder, we had around a 1% increase, so it's completely in line on the volatile NBI with the sensitivity of the portfolio. Regarding next year, on the quarter one, so given all the uncertainties surrounding the regulatory impact, which are related to TRIM, on-site inspections, and all that stuff, we now prefer to guide on the capital target by year end. That's why we guided on around 13%.
This being said, in 2024, the quarter one ratio should be impacted at least by the residual, I'm sorry, regulatory impact that we expected last year. So, this year, exactly, 2023, which is 35 basis points, and potential additional impacts that will be linked to ongoing or future on-site inspections. Regarding RWA growth, we have guided on an organic growth at the maximum of 1%, and we still are completely in line with this guidance. And with regards to ongoing M&A transactions, we still expect the positive impact to be below 10 basis points. And in Africa, we have announced some disposals that should generate non-significant positive impact. That's all from me regarding the 2024 quarter one guidance.
Thank you, Claire. Sophia?
The next question is from Delphine Lee of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning. Thank you for taking my questions. So my first question is, sorry, to come back to the cost income ratio target guidance for 2024. Just wondering why, you know, the improvement from 2023 to 2024 should be just, you know, to 26, should be just linear and-
... you know, which would imply something around more like 69% for 2024. I mean, given you have lower contribution from the Single Resolution Fund, recovery in French retail, cost synergies in Crédit du Nord, and the cost to achieve are, you know, similar amounts, 2023 versus 2024. So just wondering, kind of, like, you know, why should it improve even more than that? My second question is on the sensitivity on to the rates that you've given on French retail, which has come down, well, since CMD quite a bit. So just wondering, sort of why that is. Thank you.
Thank you. I'll give the floor to Claire.
Hi, Delphine. So if I come back to the moving part of the linear improvement of the first income, on let's say the revenues, we anticipate an increase by more than 5%, notably due to the strong rebound in the French NII. It takes. Please note that it takes into consideration the following assumptions. First, market reviews in the mid-range target, which means around 5.1 billion EUR, which means also -500 million EUR, compared to the realized 2023. And for sure, the full year contribution of this plan, but revenues which will be negatively impacted, as I said, by a continued pressure on margins and normalization on UCF.
On the cost, you're right, we will benefit from the decrease in the contribution to the SRF, around minus EUR 500 million versus 2023. And exactly, an increase in the amount of the gross savings, around EUR 500 million expected in 2024. But we also embarked in our assumptions, a significant part of the CTA. I have guided on 750-800 for 2024, out of the EUR 1 billion expected over the period 2024-2026. And also the full contribution of this plan on the first base, for sure, and an impact of inflation. That's why, based on these assumptions, and notably, the market review guidance, we guide on a cash income ratio below 71%. Regarding your second question, the sensitivity rate, the sensitivity for the French retail.
Of course, we adjust; we have adjusted hedges since the Capital Markets Day. We have, as Slawomir explained in the previous calls, a monthly ALM committee, which is chaired by Slawomir, with round the table economists, market guys, for sure, CFO, CRO, and representatives of the businesses, the retail, insurance, and all that stuff. We anticipate a potential decrease in rates; then we for sure adjusted our sensitivity. And I wanted to make very clear in my presentation on the fact that the sensitivity we guided on, which is EUR 10 million, for a parallel shift of the interest rate curve, which is positive for an increase in interest rates and negative for a decrease in interest rates.
It's computed compared to the forward rate, and this forward embeds for sure a decrease in the interest rate assumption. So our positive sensitivity means that should interest rates decrease slightly less than what is embedded in the forward, then we would improve our financial trajectory compared to the guidance we gave. But we for sure embedded a decrease in the interest rate assumption, which is the one we guided on, in our economic scenario.
Great.
The next question is from Giulia Miotto of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, good morning. My first question is on the business perimeter. Slawomir, I think during the Investor Day, you talked about looking at the bank and every business without taboo and, you know, considering disposals. You have announced some minor ones, and I'm wondering if there is any update that you can give us in terms of if there is anything in the pipeline, which could come up in 2024, or if it is a long-term project, so to speak.
And then, if I, on the flip side, look at AB acquisition, can you tell us a bit more of what, like, you know, when that is going to be consolidated and what that brings to the table for Soc Gen, in light of the fact that it's a JV rather than a fully consolidated deal? Thanks.
Hi. Thank you. Thank you for your questions. So, on the business perimeter, I do not have updates because we stick to what we said, which is that we will, you know, communicate about any adjustments to the perimeter as they actually happen. So no, no specific updates. And to answer your more strategic question is, I mean, it's a, it's a constant exercise. So, theoretically at least, and, you know, take it as a theoretical answer, you know, it's both a short-term and a long-term project. Meaning, you know, we're working on this constantly and, you know, impacts would be both short term and long term. On the AB acquisition, it should happen in H1 2024.
We're, you know, on the final steps of the work to close this JV setup, this acquisition which results in a JV. And what it is bringing to the table, I mean, the short story, we spoke about this in the past, but it's one, creating a leading research and cash equity shop. Perfectly linked and complementary to what we're doing already, you know, how significant we are a player in equity derivatives, which obviously has a cash equity component, but we're increasing significantly the size of that cash equity component, which, you know, the resilience of our equity business.
There's a lot of synergies there that can be done, mostly actually on the revenue side, but also a few on costs. So that's one piece. And the other piece, obviously, very important to us, is how it enhances our corporate franchise and our ability to dig even deeper in the conversation with our clients in terms of strategic topics and obviously in terms of the primary equity business, right? And because of the nature of Bernstein, it's high profile, and its independence, its culture, and our own footprint in the matter today, which is obviously slightly smaller than theirs. We are creating something which is of a unique nature and complementary, right?
It's a very significant business enhancement, actually, for our CIB franchise and for our clients.
Thanks.
The next question is from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, everybody. Just two from me. So first, on distribution, in the strategic plan, you talked about the 40%-50% payout ratio from 2023, I guess, towards the lower end of that range initially, and for 2023, we have the 40% payout ratio, but the mix skews heavily to dividends, which are, you know, about 70% of the payouts for 2023. So for 2024, should we still be assuming sort of 40%-50% split evenly between dividends and buybacks? I guess, and can you confirm that your plan for 2024, you expect EPS to grow year-over-year versus 2023? And then secondly, on slide 17, you talked about lower client acquisition costs in Boursorama. Could you give us a sense of where that cost is now?
Does that change at all how you think about the EUR 300 million contributions group profitability in 2026 that you talked about for Boursorama? Thanks.
Thank you. Thank you. Hello. I'll give the floor to Philippe in a second, for the Boursorama question. As far as the distribution policy is concerned, it's unchanged, and as we stated at the CMD, from 2024 onwards, we have a distribution policy which is 40%-50% of the reported net income, restated for non-cash items, with a balanced mix between cash dividend and share buybacks. Balanced, I looked it up a few times, in the dictionary means something close to 50/50, with a very little leeway to deviate from 50/50, and that's how it needs to be interpreted. So this policy, the statement is unchanged, remains valid.
In terms of improvement, well, clearly, as we progress towards our targets set for 2026 and through a mostly a linear path, we do expect, yeah, clearly the distribution to increase, and which should normally increase to lead to an increase of both cash components and the buybacks. Philippe?
Yes. Hello, good morning. Actually, we don't disclose this number, but as mentioned in the slide, you know, it continues to improve, and that has been the case during the last quarter and even in January. So, overall, you know, we don't change, I mean, the guidance provided during the capital market days, in terms of GOI during the period and on the target for 2026 remain valid. But, you know, I want to stress that, you know, all the indicators are pointing into the right direction, not only the number of new clients, but the volume of deposits, the number of transactions, the equipment per client.
So, you know, we are very confident on the trajectory of Boursorama.
Great. Thank you.
The next question is from Anke Reingen of RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. The first one is going back to capital. You said for 2024, 25 basis points hit and potentially additional on-site inspections. I just wanted to confirm this potential additional is not like the size of a potential doubling, like another 25 basis points. 'Cause I guess in the past, these on-site inspections didn't quite have small impacts. And did you confirm the 85 basis points? Sorry if I missed it in response to Tarek's question. And then secondly, another numbered question on the interest on sub debt notes in the calculation to the EPS that jumped a bit in Q4 to EUR 210 million.
Is that the run rate, or should we be more looking at the full year 2023 as a, as an outlook for this year? Thank you very much.
Hello, thank you. Can I ask you just to repeat your second question? Because, you know, there was some noise here. We didn't quite hear the second question. And the first one is gonna be addressed by Claire in a second.
Yeah. Yeah, thank you very much. It was just in your EPS calculation, the full year interest on sub-debt is EUR 759, but it implies EUR 210 for Q4. So is Q4 the run rate into 2024, in terms of the sub-debt in order, so we can calculate the EPS and the dividend and so on in your ROE? Thank you.
I don't know why, but we still have some trouble hearing you, but let's address the first question, and then we'll try one more time to get the second one. Claire, can you address the first one?
Yeah. So regarding your question, you had two types of questions. One, regarding your on-site inspection, and the second related to Basel IV. I'm sorry, I repeat, because we couldn't hear you very well here, so I want to make sure that I have properly understood. So at least I will answer these two questions. So regarding on-site inspection, it's to a certain extent, it has the usual disclaimer. You know, that we are highly regulated, and we have on a regular basis on-site inspection. So we currently have postponed in our trajectory to 2024, the 35 basis points we had guided on for the end of Q 2023.
And on top of that, we took an assumption which would rely on really a kind of cautious view to guide you on the around 13 basis points by the end of the year, regarding quarter one. So no particular information, no particular guidance, except that we confirm the around 13 basis points guidance for the by year end. Regarding Basel IV, we stick to the previous guidance, which is 85 basis point impact for Q1 2025. We didn't update this guidance and this amount. It's for sure an ongoing process, working on Basel IV and trying to manage the impact and to optimize it as much as possible, for sure. So we will probably update these impacts in due course during 2024. It's an ongoing process, but at that stage, once again, nothing particular.
Notably, no particular bad news or unfortunately good news in the last regulatory package that has been published. So we stick to the 85.
So your second question, I mean, if it was about the AT1, the cost of AT1, so you should assume, if that's the question, but please, if that was not the question, please tell us. And you should have it in the slide, actually, 56, and it's EUR 760 million in 2023, and 2024 should be roughly in line. So if that was the question, that is the answer.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay, thank you.
Yeah, okay.
Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
The next question is from Guillaume Tiberghien of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Good morning, all. The first question is on the custody business. I wanted to understand what has happened, not the year-on-year growth rate, because I remember the big gain of Q4 2022. But it's more the absolute amount of revenues of EUR 144 million. As far as I remember, that has not happened for 10 years, which is pretty bad given the higher rates environment. So I wanted to understand whether there were some specific hits or specific negative items. The second element relates to the 12% Equity Tier One in 2024 on a fully loaded basis. You would still need to build about 100 basis points at the end of 2024.
And my question, I guess, is, do you expect that a big chunk of these 100 basis points is gonna come from disposal or just from containment of RWA? And maybe just a clarification on the 85 basis points of Basel IV. Can you remind me how much of that is FRTB? Is it about half of that due to FRTB? Thank you very much.
Okay. So, I'll address the first two and leave the floor to Claire for the third one. So on the custody business, I mean, it's a short answer. No, there's no particular one-offs apart from obviously the again the base effect that you referred to and that we explained. It's a slow quarter. There is you know a slight decrease in the NII in this business. And nothing really particularly significant or one-off nature in this business.
In terms of the 12%, the Basel IV, I mean, as explained during the CMD, it's a number of factors contributing to this. And you said it, it's a combination of potential adjustments of the business portfolio, combined with the containment of the organic growth, which has a significant impact, and the organic capital generation as well. And so it's a combination of everything. But yeah, that's it. And in terms of the last question on the FRTB?
Yeah. So regarding the Basel IV impact, among the 85 basis points related to the entry into force of Basel IV, I think I had guided last quarter, and it didn't change. So it's market risk for 40%, operational risk for 45%, CVA for 10%, and credit risk for 5%. So to answer your question, market risk, 40%-
Thank you.
Of the 85.
Thank you.
The next question is from Jacques-Henri Gaulard of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I'm really, really sorry. I'm gonna have to come back to capital to make sure I have all my little stones gathered so that I can find my path. On a obviously fully loaded basis, RWA Basel IV -85, TRIM to come, -35. Obviously, Bernstein, as it's gonna be closed in April, -10, and obviously on-site inspection, not determined yet. On the positive side, there is Africa +6, and is there anything else I've missed? So that's the first question, to be precise. And the second one, you've segregated a little bit, the cost to achieve of Ayvens. I wanted to make sure that they were included into the EUR 1 billion 2024-26, of which EUR 750-800 million 2024. Thank you.
So on the first part, yes, that's, that's it. You know, and, and the other positives, which I addressed in the previous, in my previous answer. So you're right, the only thing is, Bernstein is, is, you know, materially lower than 10.
Okay.
That's the only little adjustment, but not really material. Andrea?
Yeah. So, in addition to, Slawomir's point, you missed also organic, capital generation through net result, net acquisition.
Of course.
Yeah, and just a remark, 85 basis points. It's phased, you know. It's 100 fully loaded.
Okay.
But it's up to 25. Yes, the CTA of Ayvens is embarked in the figures of EUR 750-EUR 800.
Thank you.
The next question is from Sam Moran-Smyth of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. Two questions on the Ayvens, please. First one is, unfortunately, a very quick follow-up on the, on the last question. The guide of EUR 1,100-EUR 1,600 for 2024, should we assume that your group 5% revenue growth assumes the midpoint of that range? Or, and I guess kind of what's the sensitivity either side to that? Secondly, just further out to 2026, it appears visually on slide 24, that you're not—you're estimating that used car margins will normalize at levels much lower than 2019, 2020 and 2021.
In the context that other peers are expecting those margins to actually offset some of the decline in the used car results, just trying to understand if that view is maybe conservative, or if there are any reasons why the margin wouldn't fully recover?
Pierre, Pierre, will take these questions.
Okay, so, to your first question, yes, we have guided between for the used car sales before prospective depreciations and before impact of the PPA, between EUR 1,100 and EUR 1,600. And I cannot give you the exact number of what has been taken in to assess our NBI. We don't communicate anyway on the NBI, but what I can tell you, maybe to give you a little bit more guidance, is that net post PPA and post prospective depreciation, the guidance would be between EUR 100 and EUR 600. And for the second part of the question, if I understood correctly what...
Our view on the margin, but first of all, there will be a normalization, as you said, of the used car sales in 2026. In terms of pure margins, leasing margins, we have seen a decrease in this margin.
... and we will remain at a lower level in 2024, with a progressive increase in 2025 and 2026, thanks to a lot of actions that are being taken by Ayvens in their contractual and pricing policy.
The next question is from Matt Clark of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Good morning. A couple of questions. So firstly, on the buyback, timing, can I just check, you're planning to execute that after the AGM approval like you did last year? Is that the right way to think about the calendar for that? And then secondly, the slide where you show the French retail revenue outlook. You've got a sort of a small, partly shaded increase, 2025, on 2024. If I remember rightly from your capital markets day, you had negligible kind of tailwind from hedging portfolios after the 2024 recovery. So I just wanted to check that's still the same situation, and that 2025 revenue growth comes from, you know, volume growth or other type effects, rather than from the swap portfolio. Thanks.
So thank you very much. Hello, on the buyback, yes, your assumption is correct. So, after the AGM, and as all the buyback subject to ECB authorization, and in terms of the French retail, you are correct. There are no tailwinds from the swap portfolio in 2025, and so it's let's say core growth.
Great. Thanks very much. Very clear.
The next question is from Pierre Chedeville of CIC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I have one question left. Regarding insurance, we can see that it's developing quite well this year. I wanted to know if you were to improve your setup from a management personnel point of view, or IT point of view, in order to accelerate in insurance, which for sure is something that you have as a target to develop. I was also interested by your P&C business. We can see that your business is growing. Is it due to volume? Is it due to margin? And could you also give us your technical or combined ratio? Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. I'll leave that to Philippe.
Hi. Thanks, thanks for the question. Yes, I mean, we remain, you know, quite positive regarding our insurance business. As you have mentioned, this is a record year for them. I mean, excellent regarding life insurance, especially during the first part of the year. And I would say, especially with our retail networks, because it has been a little bit more complicated, you know, with you know, ultra wealthy clients. But so, you know, very good performance, and of course, it remains, you know, one of our priority. That's one of the key objective of the new bank in France. We consider, you know, taking care of the savings of our clients, it's extremely important.
So that's true that we will have also to reallocate, you know, a lot of deposits, you know, which we're collecting in 2023. And probably, you know, one of the objective of 2024, it's is to see how we can reallocate a part of the deposits into life insurance. Regarding protection, you know, P&C, you know, we still have, you know, a lot of room for improvement. I think we are definitely moving to the right direction. We have invested a lot in digitalization of of the processes, improvement of clients' experience, you know, specialization of some teams in our call centers. So we continue, you know, to to to leverage on on all these elements. You know that, you know, we can we can improve there.
So yes, we have definitely some potential.
About your combined ratio, do you give it?
No. No, we don't disclose it.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Kiri Vijayarajah of HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may. Firstly, coming back to your global markets revenue guidance for 2024. I mean, to what extent do you think you'll be able to offset any potential revenue decline with lower costs and lower RWAs? I know your revenue guidance is pretty conservative, but just trying to work out, you know, what it might mean for the ROE in that division. And then secondly, more a perimeter or strategic question, how do you think about your payments business? I know we've seen banks in Southern Europe sell their payments businesses to specialist providers. We may see it happen in the UK, potentially. So is payments integral to your corporate offering, and is it feasible or practical to even carve it out from your core banking operations?
So just your thoughts there, please, because I appreciate, you know, the focus of your disposal has really been elsewhere, but just your thoughts here on the payment side, would be helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Hi, thanks for your question. So let me put it this way, you have two major factors. One is, you have obviously one significant variable cost in the GBIS business and in the markets in particular, which are compensation. And obviously, there is a potential for adjustment there should the lower end of the guidance theoretically, for instance, be hit. And the second thing is, you know, I don't know if you followed that very specifically, but typically GBIS, despite its very strong performance this past few years and current higher ROE, is part of our work on the structural cost improvement of the cost base.
Typically in the project, which was announced earlier this week, there is a component in GBIS, and GBIS is contributing to these cost reductions as well. So, again, right, if you have a very quick deterioration of the market conditions, well, then you will have obviously a deterioration of the ROE. But from a structural strategic perspective, we are still working on improving the cost base of the markets business, as well as of the GBIS business in general. And so we're confident that it will be a resilient business, not only from a revenue perspective, but also structurally from an ROE perspective. So that's for your first question on the payments business.
Well, as far as we're concerned, it is mostly a very deeply entrenched business in our corporate franchise. This is why it's strong, why it's something which is meaningful from both a growth perspective, from a return perspective, and absolutely key in our view in terms of working with our clients, our corporate clients and institutional clients all over the world. So, the idea of somehow carving this out and looking at this differently is not on the table today because of its intrinsic link to our core corporate client base franchise.
Great. Thanks, Slawomir. Very clear. Thank you.
This was the last question. Mr. Krupa, please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Thank you for your time. I know you've been very busy, today in particular, so thanks for joining, and we will speak to you soon for the next release. Take care. Have a good day. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Société Générale conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.