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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Oct 17, 2019

Operator

Welcome to the GTT Third Quarter 2019 activity update. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star and one on your telephone keypad. I must advise you, this conference is being recorded today, seventeenth of October, twenty nineteen. And now, I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Marc Haestier. Please go ahead, sir.

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Thank you very much, and good evening, or good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for attending this call. I will go through the key highlights of our nine-month trading statement. So to start with, let's look at the key events, key highlights for the third quarter. First of all, in terms of core business, the momentum on orders is still very strong. We had 14 orders for LNG carriers in the third quarter, 6 orders for ethane carriers, 3 for gravity-based structures. So in terms of total orders for the nine months, that's a total of 49 new orders, which can be compared to 51 for the whole of last year, 2018.

So as mentioned, orders for very large ethane carriers, an order we received in September, these ships will be being built by Hyundai, HSHI, and Samsung on behalf of a Chinese company. These ships are a new generation and the largest ever built so far, at 98,000 cubic meters. Gravity-based systems or structures, which is a first for GTT, you may recall that, in the course of last year, beginning first half of last year, we had been working on, pre-engineering studies on this, on this structure. Now, that has translated into, these orders, which will be, dedicated to the Arctic LNG 2 projects. These are big tanks. Each GBS will have two tanks of 114,500 cu m each.

Two of the three will have, in addition, tank for ethane of 980 cubic meters. On the technology front, several points to mention. The American Bureau of Shipping classification society issued an LNG cargo-ready rating for the ethane carriers, which I just mentioned. We also had an approval in principle from Bureau Veritas for the use of Mark III Flex and NO96 L03+, quite a mouthful, I'm sorry, for icebreaker vessels. We also signed a joint agreement for the design of very large crude carriers, the VLCCs, using LNG as a fuel, agreement with Lloyd's Register and several other partners. Lastly, we announced at the occasion of the Gastech trade fair a new name for our latest technology, GTT NEXT1

Formerly, it was NO96 Flex. So, in terms of order book, where do we stand at the end of the third quarter? So the movement in the order book, 49 new orders. I just mentioned 40 LNG carriers, 6 ethane carriers, 3 gravity-based structures. There were also 26 deliveries during the period, which ends up with an order book of 120 units, 100 LNG carriers, 6 ethane carriers, 6 FSRUs, 2 FLNGs, and 6 onshore storage and gravity-based systems, 3 each. In terms of the new business, LNG as a fuel, again, at the same date, the order book is growing. It now consists of 18 units, 14 container ships, 1 container vessel, actually a retrofit ship, which will be converted to LNG as a fuel, 1 cruise ship, sorry, and 2 LNG bunker ships.

In the first nine months, the movements were 7 new orders, 5 very large container ships, ultra large container ships, I should say, one container vessel, which is the retrofit, and one LNG bunker ship. If we look at the broader market, just to pick up on the flow of FIDs on new production capacity, capacities, we had the 2 new FIDs in the third quarter. Mm-hmm. We expect that further projects are reaching the point where FIDs could be declared in the short term. We have mentioned this on the chart you have in front of you. You're probably familiar with that chart.

Three, we expect our Qatar LNG expansion, Mozambique LNG Area 4 , PNG expansion, plus another list of selected projects, I would say, which are working their way towards FID. In 2019, 63 million tons per annum of new capacity was sanctioned, which is an all-time record. In terms of supply and demand, again, you're familiar with this, but clearly the forecast remained in the same trend, with a growing gap between supply and demand, estimated at 235 million tons per annum at 2035 horizon, so 15 years from now. So again, this is a good case for further FIDs and in turn, for future ship orders. Maybe just a little focus on Arctic LNG 2, which reached its FID quite recently.

This project is clearly a great opportunity for us and helps us position ourselves all along the value chain, the LNG value chain, especially with the first GBS structures which have been ordered. So in fact, these GBSs really are at the beginning of the value chain, the liquefaction plant. We also, as you know, have designed and will design probably, hopefully, ice-class LNG carriers, which would be used, of course, in the Nordic areas. The conventional LNG carrier, which is, I would say, our bread and butter. But also, if you go further down to the regas terminal, we have the FSRUs all and onshore tanks, or even possibly, in this case, GBS structures also.

Just a few words about the GBS, gravity-based structures, which, in fact, in this case, in the case of the Arctic LNG project, have been used for liquefaction projects. But in fact, there are many different usage for these types of structures all along the LNG supply chain. For example, in the power market, these tanks can be used to supply power plants, gas-fueled power plants. For bunkering, they can be used as, say, service stations for LNG as a fuel, and also can be used in various locations, in particular, remote areas where there is not necessarily the appropriate infrastructure network. Small, quick focus also on ethane. Following the order of the 6 ethane carriers we had in September.

In fact, ethane is a by-product of the production of methane, which becomes LNG. And clearly, with the expansion of shale gas, obviously, the production of ethane is increasing, and there are a number of sort of regulations which basically tend to promote the trade of ethane, rather than just flaring it. So this is also, as you can see on the graph, I recognize it's a bit small on the slide, but you see that clearly the production of ethane is growing as well as the production of LNG is also growing. In terms of size, the market is growing. There's a need for probably bigger ships, and clearly, as you know, the bigger the ship, the better it is for membrane technology.

So a few numbers. Revenues for the first three quarters stands at, rounded up, EUR 200 million, which is an increase of 8.7% compared to last year. And you will probably recall that at the half year, we had explained that the orders received in 2018 and in the beginning maybe of 2019 would start being reflected in our revenues from the second semester, and this is clearly the case. So the strong flow of LNG, of course, is one element. You have a growth of 5.1% on LNGCs, including the LECs, at EUR 158 million.

But also, you have the increase on LNG as a fuel, which is now close to EUR 6 million, which is obviously linked to the accrued revenues on the existing projects and orders we have. Services, a small increase of 1.2%. As always, services are quite contrasted, depending, and I've mentioned that quite frequently also. The case in point here is, for example, we've had a strong growth in the maintenance services, more than 26%. But on the other hand, the studies, pre-engineering studies were very low. I mentioned that last year we had the pre-FID studies for the GBS structures, which, of course, did not repeat this year.

So all in all, we have a compensating effect there, which means a modest growth in services for the first nine months. As a word of conclusion before we take your questions, we of course confirm our outlook for 2019, with consolidated revenues estimated in a range of EUR 260 million-EUR 280 million. Consolidated EBITDA in a range of EUR 160 million-EUR 170 million, and a payout ratio for 2019 and 2020 of at least 80%. So now this concludes the formal part of the call, and I'll be happy to take any questions you have.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash key. Once again, please press star one to ask a question. The first question comes from the line of Jean-Luc Romain from CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

Good afternoon. I have three small questions, if that's possible. One is regarding orders. Do you expect Qatar LNG to place the orders for the carriers by the end of the year? It's talked very frequently about. There is another question about that. During the Gastech this year, a company called American LNG communicated on an order of 17 ethane carriers using the Mark III technology. What... Can you comment about that, please? Second is about the competing technologies. It's still striking that nobody is able to compete with you. Can you comment on any progress or lack of progress you have observed at your potential competitors?

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Thank you, Jean-Luc. Well, I really need to start answering your two questions by my usual comment, which is perhaps not helpful, but we do not comment on future orders. Having said that, Qatar, I mean, clearly, yes, there's a lot of talk. There's a lot, also a lot of communication around that. But, it seems that there will be some orders from Qatar. Now, whether they will come before the end of this year or later, is very difficult to assess, at this stage. The question on American LNG, no comment really. Again, I mentioned that there was a lot of marketing around, so perhaps this is part of that. And, as far as the competition is concerned, well, basically, you are right.

Today, there is no real competing technology, following the, well, the unsuccessful attempt on the KC-1 technology. And we also know that the DSME is working on its Solidus technology, but, I mean, really, we have no reason to believe that there is any immediate threat in that respect.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

Is Moss Maritime bidding against you in some for some orders or not at all?

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Not that I know of. I mean, but clearly, I think shipowners really want membrane. There may be some local markets like Japan, where there might be some bids for maybe smaller ships, but to be honest, I don't think Moss is a threat at all for GTT.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. The next question comes from the line of Martin Brough from Exane. Please ask your question.

Martin Brough
Head of Climate and Sustainability Research, Exane

Yes, good evening. I have two questions. First, you said that you received 40 orders for LNG carriers in the first nine months. I assume it includes the 2 orders you announced on the third of October. Is it right? And my second question is also on competing membrane technologies. After the SME, Hyundai Heavy Industries has also received a general approval for its independently developed LNG containment system. So do you think it could be a more credible competing technology than Solidus? Thank you.

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Regarding your first question, yes, you are right. The order announced very early October is included in the 40, and we, in fact, mentioned in the press release that it was a September order. So, yes, you are right. Again, as far as new technologies are concerned, there are announcements of all kinds from, you know, various, various shipyards. Which, I think need to be taken with a sensible pinch of salt. General approval, yes, people do get general approval, but really the question is, you know, what are the caveats and the questions? And it's getting a general approval doesn't mean you have a technology which is ready to be marketed by any means.

So again, I mean, I haven't got much more to say than what I mentioned to Jean-Luc just in the previous question. I mean, so far, we don't see any immediate threat.

Martin Brough
Head of Climate and Sustainability Research, Exane

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. We have another question coming from the line of Jean-Luc. Please go ahead.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

Actually, I have about two questions.

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Yeah.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

If I remember correctly, when Qatar LNG passed the order in the mid-2000s, the size of the vessels was very large, like 244,000 cubic meters. It's quite different from today's standard of 174. Is the sizing of the membranes any issue? That's the first question. Second question, you were mentioning markets, different markets for GBSs. In the transshipment operations, does the LNG pass through an intermediary storage or is it transported from ship to ship?

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Yes. Okay, for your first question, Jean-Luc, well, size, membrane is not an issue for us. The bigger, the better, in a sense, since our royalty are based on the, on the size of the, of the system. On the other hand, I mean, yes, it's true that, at that time, the ships order for Qatar were very large. The standard, as you rightly say, is a bit smaller now. There are issues of where these very large LNG carriers can sail, including the Panama Canal and stuff like that. So again, I don't know exactly what kind of size will be ordered when orders do come, but we are prepared to take any size, really. As far as your second question is concerned, in fact, you can have both systems.

Either you have ship to ship, where basically there is nothing in between, or you can have a transshipment, which is organized at a regas terminal, for example, or could happen perhaps, you know, on a gravity-based system, where basically you have an intermediate storage. You have also floating storage units, which can be used for that purpose. So you have both systems.

Jean-Luc Romain
Equity Analyst and European Oil, CIC Market Solutions

Okay. Well, thank you.

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Ladies and gentlemen, once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. We have not received any further questions. I would like to hand the conference back to Mr. Haestier for closing remarks. Thank you.

Marc Haestier
CFO, GTT

Thank you. Well, closing remarks will be thank you for attending the call, and, sure, no doubt we'll be speaking to you, at, following occasions. Thank you again, and have a good evening.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference for today. Thank you very much for participating. You may now all disconnect.

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