Morning, or maybe good night to those who are following this conference from abroad. I know that some analysts are not here today. Analysts who are following GTT, some investors are following this conference through the net, and also some colleagues and employees who would like to know a little bit more about the company. So good morning. Very quickly, as you know, GTT is an engineering company licensing its proprietary technologies through license agreements to shipyards. We do that for 50 years.
We have currently 368 people, highly qualified. We design tanks for LNG carriers and also for onshore storage. We are actively developing LNG as fuel tanks, as it's a new business promised to a strong development. We provide also different services.
Very quickly, our consolidated key figures for the first half of 2019: the total revenues amounted to EUR 123 million, the royalties to EUR 116, services to EUR 7 million, and the net income to EUR 57 million. The highlights: the strong level of orders in the first part of the year with 26 new LNG carriers.
We announced in July 2 additional ones. In the entire year of 2018, we were at 48 LNG carriers, to give you a way of comparing. We have had new successes in LNG as a fuel with an order from Hapag-Lloyd to convert a container ship. It's quite interesting to see whether we can provide a solution to convert existing ocean-going vessels to LNG thanks to our solutions. Also, an order for 5 container ships for a European ship owner with quite large tanks.
Well, we have new directors in the company, which is Judith Hartmann, the Engie CFO, named at the recent shareholders' meeting. She's replacing Didier Holleaux, who is on it. We plan to have an interim dividend of €1.5 per share to be paid in September. So for our core business, I said that we had 26 orders in the first part of this year, in the first six months.
We delivered 14 LNG carriers and 2 FSRUs. So the order book as of today's or as of the 30th of June amounted to 95 LNG carriers, 7 FSRUs, 2 FLNGs, and 3 onshore storage tanks. For new businesses, the order book amounts to 18 units with 14 container ships, 1 container vessel to be converted, so let's say 15 if we add the 2, 1 cruise ship, and 2 LNG bunker ships.
7 orders in the first part of this year with the 5 ultra-large container ships, the container vessel to convert that I was talking about, and 1 LNG bunker ship. So LNG is developing and is an LNG of the future. We know that gas should be the fossil LNG which should go in the worldwide LNG mix, while coal and oil should decrease in their shares in the worldwide LNG mix.
That does not mean that currently the productions are decreasing. It's not the case for oil and gas, but their shares in the worldwide LNG mix are decreasing. Well, LNG is growing much quicker than gas as pipeline is decreasing. So in fact, the development of gas is mainly due to LNG, which is compensating and beyond the decline of gas trade through pipe.
Well, when we look at the expectations for the next 15 years and when we look at the expectations since 2016, we see that the expectations have grown very significantly. In a matter of 2 years and a half, the Wood Mackenzie, a recognized market analyst on the LNG market, has added 115 million tonnes per annum.
So strong expectations of development of LNG. If we still look at Wood Mackenzie, consider that by 2035, in this sector, 2035 is not that far away. The overall production of LNG should be at about 650 million tonnes per annum, while today we are below 400. So adding something like 270 million tonnes per annum. For those who have what we call the shipping intensity or the tonnage in mind, it means a lot of ships.
So in order to fulfill this increase of demand, there is a need for FIDs, final investment decisions on new liquefaction plants, and of course on new ships to transport these quantities. Here you have the projects, the projects which have been sanctioned recently. The FIDs taken since October 2018.
It represents 550 million tonnes per annum with LNG Canada , Golden Pass, Sabine Pass Train 6, and very recently Mozambique, the decision that has been taken on the 18th of June and adding 12.9 million tonnes. So a lot of things have been decided, and still there are some additional FIDs which are expected in the not-too-distant future. That's the case of Arctic LNG 2, a kind of Yamal project in the northern part of Russia, representing 18 million tonnes. Very recently, we know that they managed to close the investors with investments from Japanese companies.
They passed a couple of days ago a very large contract to TechnipFMC for the liquefaction plants. So that is on track, even though the FID has not been formalized yet. Qatar Expansion, Mozambique Area 4, Calcasieu Pass, and PNG Expansion. So that's projects which could be decided soon because all the engineering studies have been made, and it could be sanctioned.
And then beyond, there are serious projects which are where the LNG companies are working on preparing them for decisions. So there are things which are in their things for decision. So here you can see our estimates for long terms. We still consider that between 2019 and 2028, there should be between 280 and 310 units. In terms of FSRUs, between 30 and 40 units. In terms of FLNG, up to five units.
Onshore and GBS tanks, GBS, that's this gravity structure, kind of concrete tanks which are laying on the seabed. There is only the upper part emerging from the sea and connected to the shore. There should be between 10 and 15 units in the next 10 years. Look at the new businesses. We know that the International Maritime Organization has implemented emission regulations, and LNG is the only solution allowing comprehensive environment compliance.
Whether you're talking of sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide, CO2, as LNG is significantly reducing the emissions of CO2 and also particulates. You can see that there is no particulates with LNG. There are very little nitrogen oxide, and there is no sulfur oxide. So we have to work on the improvement of the availability of LNG for fueling ships. That's the logistics which has to be put in place.
Earlier on, I have shown you that we got a contract in the first part of this year for a bunkering ship. So we are continuing on this path, and that is a very good sign, not only because it's business, but also because it means that the logistics for delivering LNG is improving. Well, currently, there are about 320 LNG fuel ships which are in operation, mainly with small tanks. The fueling a ship with LNG is something that we know very well. We do that as a living for years for LNG carriers. LNG carriers are very special ships which are burning their own cargo. So we know that we do master that, and we can make that available. Just a word here.
In fact, if we look at the total fleet, the orders for LNG as a fuel, we see that we provide tanks, very large tanks for container ships. There are plenty of small ships with small tanks. When you look at the volume, the total volume of LNG as a fuel on big ships, and the total volume of the other technologies for small ships, you see that finally, in terms of volume, not in terms of number of ships, the GTT technologies are representing about one half of the volume, something like that. So in fact, as of today, we have already become a solution of reference according to this criterion in terms of volume stored for LNG as a fuel sector. The scrubbers, they are banned in key areas more and more.
You know that it's a technology which is very much favorable for complying with the IMO rules. Basically, you clean up the emissions thanks to a kind of shower, not exactly water, but water plus some products. You collect these muds where you have this water and some emissions, some sulfur oxide, and you dump them into the sea. So a lot of places are banning that.
The case of China, India, where there is an increasing environmental concern. It's also the case of Singapore, Ireland, California, Norway. So it's a concern as in order to comply with the rules in these places, you've got to go through to a closed-loop scrubbers where you are collecting these acid muds, and you have to discharge these acid muds in a harbor, which is a costly expense. For those who have open-loop scrubbers, they cannot operate in these places.
Well, a way of looking at the payback on LNG, we see here that currently the payback against compliant fuels, according to the prices of the barrel, could be very short, lower than 1.5 year at $80 barrel, the oil barrel, or a bit longer if we take into consideration a $60 barrel. So in fact, you may say, "Well, it's a no-brainer." Well, it's what we think. It will come. We are keeping on thinking about that.
So you may look at these figures and see when the market is really going to take off. It's an efficient solution. Of course, it's additional CAPEX in terms of upfront. So you may have other alternatives, but we think that finally it will take off. If we look at the payback of LNG and scrubber against compliant fuels, you see the red line, it's the scrubber. The blue line, it's LNG.
You have the conditions which are indicated below. It's for a quite large ship, 14,000 TEUs container ship. There you see that you have a kind of break-even point between LNG and scrubber after 7 years. 7 years, it's long. It's a bit of time. But we feel that the LNG solution is far better environmentally.
You can see in the long run and on the life of a ship, which is supposed to last for 20 or 30 years, 7 years is a bit short. But here you have the possibility to select something which is going to be environmentally friendly for decades. Well, we are keeping on working on various designs for adapting membrane technologies to ocean-going vessels. Well, container vessels, that's what you can see, but also bulk carriers, cruise vessels. And we are developing LNG bunker barge and bunkering ships.
We have already orders for not for all of them, not yet. We have not orders for bulkers, but we have orders for barges, for bunkering ships, for cruise vessels, for container ships. So what is important, in my opinion, at that stage is to see how we are capable of breaking into a new segment of the shipping industry.
And so container, plenty of ships. Cruise vessels, not that many. Bunkering ships are a very good indicator of the development of the logistics, of the LNG logistics. And are we going to be able to break into new sectors such as bulk carriers or maybe tanker ships or any other sectors of the shipping industry? So a bit nervous this morning. So as you know, we develop a full range of services for a decade.
These services have proven to be very helpful for helping shipowners to adopt LNG as a fuel. If they need to train their crews to LNG, we have subsidiary LNG GTT training providing training solutions for years. If they need assistance in their bunkering operations, we can offer that to them. If they need a hotline to be helped 24/7, we have a hotline in place working quite well for LNG carriers for years.
We have a wide range of partnerships with 25 shipyards under licensed agreement. We have a network of membrane tank outfitters. It means companies which the shipyards can subcontract the construction of the tank to. We have close relationships with engine makers and also fuel gas handling system providers. So I would say months after months, we've developed this network of partnership with the idea of making LNG as a fuel as simple as possible.
Commercial success, a quick recall. 5 ships for container ships at the beginning of this year. Hapag-Lloyd, conversion of a very large container ship with 6,700 cubic meters. The CMA CGM order 15 months ago with 18,600 cubic meters. The Ponant expedition ship with 4,500 cubic meters. The MOL bunker ship, 18,600. Another MOL bunker ship, 12,000. So quite strong fuel orders. Services, we can provide studies through our consulting activities. We can provide training.
We can provide assistance to operations. We can provide emergency assistance. We develop our activities in the software. We have a strong digital activity. We have capability of assisting owners in their maintenance activities. We can provide tests to see whether membrane tanks have defects or in which states they are. We can provide also a lot of engineering assistance. Our strategic roadmap, not a lot of change, I would say.
Of course, at the heart of the company, there is the willingness to maintain its capacity of offering state-of-the-art LNG carrier technologies. That is very important. Through that, we can provide technologies for offshore activities such as FLNGs or FSRUs. We work on multi-gas carriers capable of working different gas. We work also on gravity-based systems, which is something that we're working on, introduced last year, and which is attracting a lot of interest.
We are enlarging that to services and LNG as a fuel. You know that. Two areas of strong activities in terms of research, development, and innovation. It's gas handling technologies, very much needed for LNG as a fuel, and also smart shipping with the acquisition of Ascenz 18 months ago. The quest of the convergence between these two in the growth technology transformation that we call by its acronym, GTT.
From there, going towards a lower emission lifetime world in the future, which is an absolute requirement. Marc.
Everybody. We'll take you through our usual tour of financial matters, starting with the order book. So this is, as you know, the photograph of the order book at the close of the period, 30th of June, which stands at EUR 603 million and does not include, of course, the revenues from the first half, which amounted to EUR 111 million for the core business royalties. Now, that translates, as you can see on this chart, into revenues for 2019 at EUR 257 million, 2020 at EUR 333 million, and 2021, EUR 114 million. So quite a lot of visibility and positive visibility on our future revenues. Now, just a word on comparison between semester and semester on revenues.
Here we are looking at revenues, again, royalties over the various half years, last year and this year. You see, first half of 2018 was comparatively high because, of course, it was made of revenues relating to orders prior to 2016. We had a pretty high level of orders. You remember that in 2016, we had only 5 orders. And clearly, that created a decrease in revenues in the second half of 2018. And some of you might remember that last year, at the same time, I suggested that one shouldn't multiply the first half revenues by 2 to have an idea of the full year.
Actually, I'm now delivering the same message this half year, but more the other way around because now, in the second half of 2019, we will be getting the benefit from the large flow of orders in 2017 and 2018, which will continue flowing through 2020. We did indicate already for the full year that we were preparing ourselves and gearing up. Obviously, you need a bit more means to cover a level of activity covering 50 orders than you need for 5 orders.
So we announced that we would be increasing our headcount and subcontractors are in the effort. And that also has some practical aspects in terms of facilities because, besides our own people, a lot of subcontractors are actually hosted on our site in Saint-Rémy. So in terms of key numbers, I want to go back to revenues, EUR 120.6.
We understand the movements from last year. Excuse me. EBITDA at EUR 70.9 million down, and I will cover the cost base in the next slide. But that reflects, of course, what I've just mentioned. Net income at EUR 56.6 million, obviously affected by the reduction in EBITDA, but also by a one-off effect we had last year.
If you remember, we had a tax refund for EUR 5.7 million, which was linked to the cancellation of the 3% tax on dividends, which had been implemented in France. Free cash flow remains strong. CAPEX lower, but clearly more in line with the trend. Last year, we had the CAPEX, which were related to the acquisition of Ascentz. We paid a large dividend last year, so that affected also our cash position, which remains, however, extremely strong at EUR 155.6 million. Now, the cost base.
First of all, it's interesting to note on the chart that the proportion between staff costs and external costs remains relatively stable over time. But here, we will see, of course, the increase in costs linked to the increase in activity, in particular on subcontracted tests and studies, which are increasing by more than 50%. As you know, this is clearly our major operational lever, which is clearly being used in this first half.
Other external costs are also on the increase, which is also a direct consequence of this increase in activity. Just for an example, you have a lot more people on site. They need computers. They need IT support. You need more purchasing power to actually recruit these people, these subcontractors. So, of course, you also have increases in other external costs.
Salaries and social charges increased globally by 5%, which also reflects the increases in headcount we've had since the beginning of this year. So that's the overall picture on the financial side. I will hand back to Philippe as far as the outlook is concerned. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Marc. So the outlook for 2019 is upgraded with revenues estimated in a range of EUR 260 million-EUR 280 million against EUR 255 million-EUR 270 million previously. For the EBITDA, consolidated EBITDA estimated in a range of EUR 160 million-EUR 170 million compared to EUR 150 million-EUR 160 million previously. For the dividend payment for 2019 and 2020, payout of at least 80%. So now, if you have questions, Marc and I would be delighted to answer to them.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask questions over the phone, please press star and one on your keypad, and it's the hash key to cancel. That's star and one to ask questions over the phone. Thank you.
Oui. Yes. Good morning. Mike is coming. Thank you. Is it working? Okay. Thank you. Good morning, Martin Tessier , Exane, I have three questions. First of all, what's your view on the currently pretty low spot LNG prices? Do you think it could be there ship owners to place order for the rest of the year? Secondly, could you give us a sense of how many LNGC orders you expect from all the new FIDs that were announced since the start of the year, namely Golden Pass, Area 1, and Mozambique, Sabine Pass 26, and Calcasieu Pass?
Finally, since the start of the year, there have been several new tenders for LNG fuel bulkers. Is there anything new on this side? And have you got new prospects for potential LNG fuel bulkers? Thank you. Bulkers. Bulkers.
Okay. Thank you. The low LNG prices, well, first of all, I would say that we are in a long-term industry. Deciding liquefaction plant, it's an investment for the next 40 or 50 years. Deciding on a ship, it's also an investment on the next 40-50 years, as LNG carriers are almost like diamonds. They are forever. So the spot price, which represents only a part of the LNG trade, the spot prices are a bit low now. And we always consider that 2019 could be a year where you would have a lot of LNG.
But what is impressive is that, in fact, in spite of this feeling about the spot market, LNG companies, LNG players are considering that very soon there is a lack of LNG, which is driving the final investment decisions which are taken that we talked about in the presentation.
And you saw in the presentation the gaps which are existing in terms of LNG availability in the next decade and even more in the following decades. So all that may look far away for you. But in fact, taking into consideration that building LNG production facility requires between 4 to 5 years and sometimes even longer, these gaps are not that far away, and decisions have to be taken.
With the growth, the strong growth of the demand of LNG, mainly driven by the substitution of LNG to coal in a lot of LNG mixes, mainly in Asia, the growth in demand should remain. The apparent overall capacity that we can see through low prices should be absorbed very quickly. Just one final remark. Of course, we are not touched directly by the low LNG prices, but low LNG prices are positive in many respects for our business.
First, if LNG is very affordable, it's a further incentive to substitute LNG to coal for power generation. It's also a very strong factor for switching to LNG for propulsion of ships. So not everything is negative in this element. Now, second point about FIDs, could I guide you about the number of LNG carriers which should be detected from the million tons decided?
Well, we talked about that in previous investor presentations, so you may refer to that. I would like to give you some elements. It depends very much where the liquefaction plant is. Mainly, the market is in Northeast Asia, about 75% of the market. And the further away you are from this place, the larger number of ships you need to transport LNG. The trip is very long, and the ships cannot perform a lot of voyages in a year.
So Mozambique is not that far away. Gulf of Mexico is very far away. West Coast of Canada, it's a bit better, but not that much. You still have to cross the Pacific. I would say that another clue: Northern Russia is very far away, very complicated because you have to cross the Arctic Ocean thanks to ice-breaking LNG carriers who are going slowly into the ice.
And if they go slowly, you need a lot of ships. So I would say that we are still at about the figure we gave you some years ago at about 1.7, 1.8 standard ship per million ton. The third point you're referring, bulkers, yes, you are quite well informed. Congratulations. There is a significant tender there for bulkers to be fueled by LNG. It's in the professional press. So we are working on that.
We are proposing our designs. Well, let's see how it's going to work. I would say that our solutions are considered, and that already is a significant progress because some time ago, it was not the case. Sorry for this long answer. Another question? As a reminder to ask questions over the phones, you can press star and one on your keypad. That's star one for phone questions. Thank you.
To give us an idea of the potential demand for LNG as fuel and liquefaction in the future, you mentioned that there's not exactly where the market will take off, but what could be the potential in terms of demand and LNG demand in the future? Well, that's an exercise, to be candid. We are doing for years.
As far as predictions, forecasts are concerned, it's always very interesting to see at what you planned years before. I do that, and I do that regularly while we never published these figures. I come always to the conclusion, thank God we did not communicate these forecasts. It's hard to predict what a market is going to be when it's a new market. There are variables there.
We try for the first time to give you some elements to rationalize on the potential of this market thanks to the break-even points we saw. But I would say that while we like to give guidance in which we do believe, in which we have a high degree of confidence, so we are going to keep on to that. I would say that we do believe that this market is going to take off. And if this market is taking off as expected, it has the capacity to significantly change the size of the company. Well, I do hope that this is the answer you were expecting. Another question?
Yes. Thank you, Jean-Pierre Lambert, MainFirst. I have a question about gravity-based structures, also known as GBS. You've mentioned that this new market could offer some opportunities for GTT. Can you give us some color about that?
More specifically, I think that the Arctic LNG 2 project is based on the construction of three such huge structures. How confident are you that GTT could receive an order for those three giant structures? Thank you.
Well, new opportunities, yes, we think that it's quite promising. As you know, we've designed all the FSRUs in the world, FSRUs that LNG carriers specifically, with a regas facility on the deck and capable of anchored close to the shore and capable of sending gas to the grid or to a power station. For air, you could replace the floating structure, the LNG carrier, by a concrete structure. And it means that the CAPEX and the OPEX could be lower. You will not need to send the FSRU to yard every five years for being completely checked. You will not need a crew on the FSRU.
So that could be quite simple. You could build this tank, which is almost an onshore tank. You could build it in a highly qualified environment, industrial environment in a yard, then tow it. So in fact, you have many strong advantages there. And we believe that for large liquefaction plants, it could have an advantage. We believe also that for islands, small islands, it could be very interesting.
You know that in these places, having a concrete onshore tank may not be appreciated because the land is scarce. Very often, it's touristic places where they do not appreciate to have this kind of things. So if you put all that into the sea, you decrease very significantly the negative points of an onshore tank. And these places have LNG issues. Very often now, they are relying on heavy fuel oil, very polluting, on diesel oil, polluting and expensive.
Relying on LNG, they could rely on a much cleaner and cheaper LNG. So it's opening new gates to gas to power, how you can generate power in small islands thanks to LNG, cleaner, less expensive. So we have that in mind. We are talking to people about that. We are promoting that. And well, let's see. And second, on the Arctic LNG 2 project, well, we do not comment negotiations or perspectives. So what I can say is that the final investment decision for this project has not been taken yet. And that we don't comment ongoing negotiations or perspectives. Other questions?
Jean-François Granjon from Oddo BHF. First question, could you make an update regarding the technology and the competitive technology? Do you see any risk for the next time? Second question, could you also add a bit regarding the Korean request?
So since 2016, we don't have any more news. Do you see no more risk from that? And the last question, could you give us some trend you expect for 2020 due to the strong or the huge level of other index? So after a pretty good 2019 fiscal year, I suppose we expect a very strong gross increase in 2020. So could you give us some more color about that? Thank you.
Thank you. Well, on competitors, of course, there are competitors and people proposing competing technologies. The case in Korea where they built two KC-1 ships, and people are promoting various forms of technologies. There is still mass. So on smaller size ships on LNG as a fuel, there is a technology named C-type. There is a technology promoted in Japan and in Korea, which is the Type B technologies. So you have many competing solutions.
It's a very competitive environment. It's why we have to maintain our efforts in terms of research, development, and innovation in order to keep on convincing people. Well, I would say that we are doing that, and we do not intend to reduce these efforts in the years to come. The second point on KFTC, well, we have some exchanges limited.
I would say that still, on this case, we are fully collaborating with potentially with the KFTC. We keep on considering that we did not and do not abuse of our position. It's why, well, we did not constitute any kind of provision over the years. It's why, of course, we are very determined to fully collaborate with the current Fair Trade Commission.
For 2020, it's an exercise we do not guide on the number of orders we are supposed to receive. But from the chart where you see the decisions which have been taken and the decisions which may be taken in the near future, you may expect that 2020 should not be a too disappointing year.
For example, while you have projects which have been sanctioned quite large, which have not taken their decisions in terms of ordering ships, that's the case for Golden Pass, for example, but it's not the only one. So while we may expect that in the coming months or next year, they will have to take a decision on that. But of course, as it is the future, it's hard to predict. Thank you. If I can just add one element.
Yeah, if I can just add one element, you've seen the chart on the order book during the presentation, which shows already royalty revenues which are already in the order book for EUR 333 million. So that gives you some kind of indication.
Another question? Well, if there is no other question, I would like to thank you very much for having followed this conference here in Paris and elsewhere in other countries or in other places. Have a good day. Thank you.