Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the call on Q3 2022 revenue and business activity for Nexity. Let me just remind you're all in listen mode. We'll have a Q&A session after the presentation. Information point, this is being recorded. Now I'd like to give the floor to Ms. Véronique Bédague, Chief Executive Officer. You have the floor.
Good evening, everyone. Thank you for taking part in this webcast. Most of you are familiar with everyone here with us, Géraldine Bopp, Eric Lalechère. Nadia, unfortunately, isn't able to be with us this evening. An information point, I wanted to say to you that Q3 is really very much in line with what we said to you back in July, entirely consistent with the strategic focus we talked about during our Investor Day.
First of all, let's take a look at some of the key figures. Housing activity, broadly, we're in line with H1 and what we said to you in July. The market in the first half has been strongly down -21% since the beginning of the year. These are FPI figures. We don't yet have the next period figures. We'll get end of November. Reservations -8% in volume, so we outpaced the market, and that's good momentum. In H1, we've been -9%. I'll show you later on some slides that will give you some illustration of these various points. Let me say, though, that as we said to you in July, we continued working through our commercial strategy, shifting over some of our launches and to bulk sales.
We've also worked hard on service properties. We talked about these, that there's great demand for service properties, and we are working on these. To echo the institutional demand now, you'll see we refocused some of our sales to institutional investors. Why? Firstly, because our view is that currently these institutional investors enable us to really help contain risk, control risk. Furthermore, when you've got an institutional investor on board, you don't have anything left for sale at the end of the job site, the project. As soon as we've signed reservations, we can sell. That's much better for WCR, which all of you individually have drawn my attention to when we met in September.
Furthermore, we realized in addition to this and during the first half, institutional investors, we've got some long-standing partnerships, know them very well, and we can renegotiate prices with them as we did in the first half when construction prices went up quite significantly. Our option right now is to refocus some of our production to institutional investors. As we said during the Investor Day, basically, our ability to do retail or bulk sales is a real strength of ours. It's a strength thanks to our size, and we're demonstrating that strength. Sales prices continue an upward trend in on all types of clients. Revenue, same trend as in H1. Stability in group revenue, excluding the base effect in commercial real estate. Services are still dynamic, up 9%. Our backlog is still high, containing two years of development activities.
The pipeline stable, standing at EUR 21 billion. After the approval, as you saw in the press release last year, we got the go-ahead from the antitrust authorities, so we finalized the acquisition of the Angelotti Group. We already talked to you about this in July. They're a family group with the DNA of urban planning. They're really boosting residential real estate. Their footprint is very complementary to ours. They're strongly entrenched in Occitania, good local foothold. They have a good number of building permits. They're present in Southern France, and they're going to be developing further. We've got big ambitions for this beautiful asset, which is around EUR 200 million in revenue for a full year. A reminder, we acquired a first section, 55% of the share capital, the first tranche.
Acquisition will be consolidated in our financial statements as of 1 November. Angelotti Group, it in fact has a measured effect on our debt, about EUR 5 million. Doesn't in any way jeopardize our predictions. Net debt end of the year should stay the same order of magnitude as the figures we already gave to you in July. Generally speaking, the housing market, you're familiar with the metrics. We won't dwell on this. New home sales down, especially since developers, don't all have access to bulk sales. Mortgage interest rates continue going up, as we know. There are rate hikes. That's important, but even more importantly, possibly, is what happened at the beginning of the year. Obligations, given to banks, by the authorities on usury interest rates.
Now we're beginning to see production of property loans is down and -11% in recent months. More recent statistics for housing loans saying it's about minus one-third in a couple of months. Production of mortgages going down very significantly. We think that the Bank of France is going to have to recognize now that we're seeing a contraction in mortgage lending. As we mentioned earlier. This is H1 on the left-hand side. As per the FPI, -17% for retail home sales, and -30% for the bulk sales. We're seeing a -15% of retail sales and +3% in bulk sales for the reasons I gave you earlier or in July. Some of our operations are sold to institutional investors, as we mentioned.
We've got a -8% versus 2021, you'll remember, which is a very high year with the post-COVID year, a time when the market though has gone down by 21%. We've gone down only -8%. Now, we're—I've said to you several times our main feature versus some of our competitors is that we're highly stable over time. We stay with the same order of the magnitude even in 2020. What we see over time, we can see our proportion of retail sales and bulk sales. The charts here show clearly that versus previous years, we can't compare to 2020, but previous years, end of Q3, 15% of our sales were to institutionals. Value, square meter prices continue going up 11% in retail and up 6% in bulk sales.
Residential real estate, we discussed demand in the first half. We're now talking more about supply. What we've seen is broadly throughout the country, increased building permits. Gradually, we therefore can replenish our commercial offering, upping the number of lots. But we're still in a trough in spite of the uptick. We're lower than what we may have had in the past. Another point, an important one to realize currently, our supply is sound and low risk. We've got completed homes that are unsold. Basically, it's standing at zero, and that can be a low risk. We have zero completed homes unsold, so a very low risk. We can say that that's a very good percentage. Now, Jean-Claude, would you like to speak now on Commercial Real Estate?
Yes. Commercial Real Estate, as we said at the end of the first half, it's at the low point in this cycle, and that's reflected in our order intake, EUR 108 million revenue, -30% trend. We have a backlog at a level that remains very high, EUR 827 million, after integrating the order intake and the reduction of conversion into revenue as projects progress. Midterm, we have a potential pipeline that remains at a very high level of EUR 2.1 billion, giving us good visibility going forward. Future prospects that can benefit from a market momentum that is trending well. As regards services now, here again, identically almost, we have a drive the same as H1, +9% increase in our revenue versus September 2021.
The growth stems primarily from managed properties, student residencies and co-working properties. The slide shows the various services, property management, serviced properties, distribution, a brief word on each. For Property Management, we see stability. When it comes to serviced properties, we see a favorable dynamic in the number of units that are posting positive net growth. We see that management activities progressing well, and we have transaction and rental activities. Transaction benefits from our integrated model. We distribute, we sell products that are those of our clients, rental management, who also buy these products. We have a virtuous circle that works well. For rental, however, they're suffering from the stop in the rental market that we're seeing. That's -12% on the rental market.
That has an impact on our activity, the order of eight. For serviced properties, very good progression of our student residences and Morning [Coworking]. We have an occupancy rate very close to 100% of these student residences driving revenue. On Morning, we're benefiting from two impacts. Firstly, an improvement period to period of the occupancy rate up 14 points. That's obviously driving top-line growth. Added to that, the extension in the property base, it's growth of 50% over the period. These two trends are delivering very strong growth in Morning, a doubling of revenue over the period by Morning. Lastly, for distribution, what we can say about distribution is that the business is benefiting from its leadership position in this segment.
Very good transformation of reservation into deeds that's driving revenue growth up 4%. We're also a point of attention in the market because the property developers who need to market and transform come to PERL to our account, and that is driving business. There we can reaffirm the strength of our distribution business.
Thank you. Now revenue. Thanks to revenue from the first nine months, down 4% versus the 3.077 we had within this scope. There were divestments beginning of 2021. 2021 saw a big order intake in the first quarter and commercial and real estate. If we restate for the base effect, revenue remains stable. Current activity, drop in residential -EUR 70 million, delay in startup for some projects offset by advances in commercial projects and increase in services +EUR 50 million for reasons that Jean-Claude mentioned previously. Now, outlook. We reconfirm our annual targets as indicated at the Investor Day. Up 14% in expected market, 130,000 units.
Revenue above EUR 4.6 billion, which will depend on transformation rates of signatures towards the end of the year. Operating margin around 8% for current operating margin.
Our pipeline continues to be significant. As Véronique said at the beginning of the session, EUR 6 billion is in the backlog, which is two years worth of revenue. Now, this backlog, I'd remind you, is future revenue, which has already been secured. This is based on deeds already signed and building permits already in hand. This is already secured through construction budgets. Now, future revenue under business potential. You can see this is very high as well, up 4% compared to 31 December. This shows our ability to develop and renew production for future years, regardless of the overall market environment. That's pretty much the conclusion of our presentation.
We'd be happy to field any questions you might have now.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Star one. First question comes to us from Emmanuel Caro, from Gilbert Dupont. Go ahead, sir. Your line's open.
Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. In fact, I have three. The first was on the cancellation rate of your reservations. Would it be possible to have that rate and above all to know whether it's rising given the tightening conditions by the bank? Second question on the institutional investors in the residential segment, it seems to be working quite acceptably for you, and we can check that there's a kind of a wait and see attitude by institutional investors in the residential segment with the rising capitalization rates. Could you give us an update on that? Third question, Angelotti.
Question, would it be possible to have the margin? Do we have to consolidate the revenue as of the end of December with the PPA? Is it just booking the revenue in your accounts that will occur later on the price? If I understood correctly, it's EUR 100 million for half the capital. That's an acquisition price of EUR 200 million. That's half the revenue. Is that right? Thank you.
Regarding sales to individuals, we're seeing an increase in the withdrawal rate that's moderate of the order of 10% as compared to last year. This withdrawal increase is due to loan refusals higher than last year, but remain at an acceptable level and don't in any way call into question our ability to market to private investors.
On Angelotti, we have a margin forecast that's higher than the Nexity group margin. That's going to be accretive, and there'll be a PPA, which will have an impact on the P&L two years, and that will be a deduction of the margin. But for Angelotti, that will be accretive on our P&L. The impact on the P&L of this unit that will be consolidated fully, that will be in 2022, two months of revenue, November, December as of 2023. We'll book full year the Angelotti business. You're right, that if EUR 100 million, that's 50%, then of course you can extrapolate the enterprise value of the whole on the institutionals.
The institutionals are very broad-based and of course, Caisse des Dépôts, CDC, of course, are buying social housing, but also in the open market. There's the sphere of the housing with homologise, 3F, they're very much in. We work with local landlords, local buyers. There are a great many across the country, and we've closed transactions with two types of institutional private, one leveraged. We won't probably see those next year. Another, an insurance company where we cemented two good deals today. The managed, as we said at the Investor Day, we're looking more at managed co-leasing where the service is provided. They're there at this point in time, and we took those decisions ahead of time back in July.
To read you right, the private institutional investors in our nine months reservations, that represents what? How, what proportion? Well, we gave you the information in the press release. 43% of our reservations are with institutionals, and on that we have about 2/3 with social landlords and then more conventional on free open market. It's all types of products that are addressable for these institutionals, which as Véronique Bédague said, are very varied in terms of geographic location, their investment capacity as to why they're invest. It's that richness and diversity allows us to successfully market our products without risk of a decline in margins as compared to what we decided at our engagement committee.
That's very clear. Thanks.
Next question from Aline Dillard from Société Générale. Go ahead. You have the floor.
Good evening. I have a question regarding Angelotti also. If I understood properly, sorry to make you repeat, but apparently no impact of PPA in terms of recognition of revenue at the end of the fiscal period.
That's correct. The PPA is a recognition of customer relationship. It's an amortization between EBITDA and operating income. 4% of revenue in our coming years. No impact on revenue, just a decrease in the margin. Even with the PPA, our margins will continue to be above the margins at Nexity property development.
Okay, thanks. I'd also like to ask for your comment on the Montreuil operation. I think it's not in your backlog, but what's its impact? What's your view of that project and when it will come to fruition?
For the time being on this deal, the municipal authorities are asking for us to step up the project. There may be political discussions. That's often the case. It's often the case on many of our projects in France. It's an iconic project. We very much want to be successful. It's under EUR 200 million that are EUR 15 billion in potential, so we're not talking about it being significant in our earnings. It is a project which is a winner of international competition on sustainable development. I believe that it'll be important in terms of transforming the city and showing that we're able to carry forward that type of transformation.
Yes, it's my project. I realize that it was just a missing figure. Okay, well, thanks for the answer.
Yes, this is with Crédit Agricole. Apparently we're not alone on this one.
Yes, I realize that f or development. You have the figures.
Thank you.
Next question comes from Christophe Chaput from ODDO. Your line is open, sir.
Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I have three, if I may. The first, I'd like to turn to your reservations in value terms as a price effect of 10% per square meters, and for the bulk sales and 2% for the retail. Why is it for the bulk sales at 100 sq m should be different from those of retail sales? Did you give that same number for bulk sales that was potentially that you'd postponed the projects to renegotiate the prices? That's my first question. My second question was to return to the Angelotti growth in 2021, the business grew 20%, if I'm not mistaken, 33% in H2 in 2020.
I'd like to know if in 2023 you're still banking on double-digit growth, and maybe just return on what the drivers of such sustained growth? Third, clarification. You said over the past two months, reservations in France, the sector were down 30% for September.
No, if you could return to that, please. If we take them in the order, the reservations trend, the figure can be seen over time in sales to individuals 'cause we have a high statistics base plus 2% growth of our sale prices in individuals. That's the current state of the market for new homes, very much in demand, with its energy efficiency higher than old buildings can drive prices higher.
For bulk sales, social sales and intermediate sales and product, it's important to convey the message that we're selling well without it being detrimental to the margin, +6% versus the first nine months as compared to, we can't relate it to any particular sale. The idea is to show that pricing remains more on the side of the seller, and that means we can sell at a better price. Angelotti, yes, I confirm that the growth trajectory in 2023 will remain, is set to remain double-digit. Why? An urban player who's shifting into that of property development, and so has strong revenue potential because this pipeline of projects is of good quality and pretty substantial, pretty voluminous and that property developer for M&A and will expand in the outyears.
Final question to Véronique. Yeah, just to pick up on the communication. I think it was put out maybe a few days ago by the Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA, more up-to-date than the Bank of France data, stating the fall in loan production was very swift. September measured sliding down 26%, and number of loans down 27%. What we're reading is that production is declining very sharply. That was July, August. Those were the latest figures available. I'm not drawing that there's any impact on the housing market, but it must be reflected somewhere.
Thanks. Clear. On the retail market, that is.
We have no further questions in the line. If you wish to put a question, please press star one of your keypad.
Star one, please, if you have a question. I'll say it one last time. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one. We have no further questions in our queue. I'd like to give the floor back to Ms. Véronique Bédague, Chief Executive Officer, to wrap up this presentation.
All right. Thank you very much. I'd like to thank all of you. Have a good evening. Annual results will be 22 February 2023. That'll be the next time we meet again, I believe. Talk to you again in February. Of course you can ask us questions in the meantime. We're certainly available to field any questions you might have between now and then. Have a great evening. Bye-bye. Ladies and gentlemen, we've now completed this call. Thank you all for taking part. You can now disconnect.