Welcome to Nexity's conference on third quarter activity for the third quarter of 2026. For the first part, the participants will be in listening mode only. During the question-and-answer session, participants may ask questions by dialing five on their phone. I will now hand over to Véronique Bédague, who is the CEO of Nexity. Madame, the floor is yours.
Thank you. Good evening to you all, and thank you for joining us for this webcast devoted for our business activity for the first nine months of the year. I am joined this evening by Pierre-Henry Pouchelon, Deputy CEO. I am going to share with you the main messages at publication, then Pierre-Henry will go over in detail the commercial activity and revenue before concluding on our outlook. As with every occasion, you will be able to ask your questions after our presentation. Let us start with the main messages of the first nine months that I will review individually. First message, we confirm the 2026 guidance. That is a Nexity COP that is up and continued decrease in the leverage ratio. It confirms the deterioration of the business climate noticed in the third quarter.
I will come back to it, but the trajectory of COP 2026 does not depend on the current context, but it relies on transformations underway and the levers that we control we have been activating since 2023. Second message, our commercial activity is in line with the trend of the first half in a market in sharp decline, - 18% according to the trade industry in H1, with retail sales seem to be holding up better than the market. In Q3, we signed almost 5,400 reservations over the period. Like every year, the signings of our bulk sales remain concentrated on Q4. Third message, housing is now a foremost priority for politicians in France and Europe. We believe that more defining measures will be included in the 2028 finance bill.
Fourth message, the macro context has hardened since the summer, and this deterioration is longer, and that confirms the lag in the recovery I mentioned end of July. That is why Nexity is amplifying its transformation to adapt the group to a low cycle whose scale and duration are heightening. We continue to reinforce our financial structure and adapting our organization to the current cycle. So confirmation of the guidance, first message, which a key message, guidance 2026 confirmed based on levers that we control. We have been activated since 2023, an embedded trajectory of improvement of COP, rebuilding margins for development, and contribution positive of our operations and the plan, EUR 100 million in savings by the end of the year. We continue to apply strict financial development and discipline in our operations independent of the cycle.
If we incorporate the deterioration in Q3 and subject to further significant deterioration to confirm the improvement of our operational improvement and continued decrease in the leverage ratio. Key metric over the first nine months, I won't dwell on it because Pierre-Henry will come back in detail. Our offering remains of high quality, very selective, over 90% in tight market areas, a pre-sale rate of 73%, and absorption rate less than six months lower than the market average. We signed 5,400 reservations first month, 3,100 retail sales, down 10%, in line with the H1 context and numbers that incorporate the September month, a hardening of the context. Housing, a foremost political priority. Before discussing the macro picture for Q3, I'd like to share with you a positive point. We always mention the transpartisan realization of the urgency to act on housing.
Housing is a key factor of the process against the cost of living in Spain, France, Italy, and a key plank of the French presidential elections. The finance bill 2027 uncertain, sending first signs with the Prêt interest-free loan and a family gift. In addition to that, there are private lessor. We believe that measures will be more defining in the 2028 plan and presented in 2026. Macro context, hardening of the macro context in Q3, conflict in the Middle East many observers thought would be short-lived, is now covering seven of the nine months of this period. It's fueling the slowdown of the French economy, rising inflation, +3% on one year.
Fuel prices have increased sharply in January, +30% for fuel, 8%, the bond rate 10%, and the average housing loan rate is 15 basis points up versus June, and 3.82%, 25 years for the core target of first-time buyers for our business. Three main consequences: declining spending power, heightening rates, and less capacity to borrow, and wait and see ahead of elections affecting inflation. The re-qualification of the cycle that we discussed in July is being reinforced. 2026 and 2027 will be very low cycle years. 2028 will be a year of transition, driven by new housing measures. We're not expecting a recovery before 2029, 2030. We note this deterioration that I already announced at the end of July. Low cycle extended in time. I've set in hand two major initiatives. Firstly, strengthen our financial structure with three actions.
Firstly, we benefit from the renewed confidence of our banks in the group and our strategy. We've initiated, in this context, like we said in July early, negotiations with our banks to extend the credit line, whose maturity is February 2028, and the completion guarantees which guarantee the completion of buildings finalization expected in the coming weeks. Secondly, we're focusing more than ever our development on our commercial operations that are secured in stretched area, in line with our financial discipline. We're initiating a review of the portfolio, excluding property development. Secondly, we continue the review of our organization, of our brand portfolio, and our overheads. The goal is clear: strengthen our financial base, protect our balance sheet, and correctly size the group for an even lower market in order to track our margins at the expected pace.
Over now to Pierre-Henry, who will present in detail the commercial activity and revenue for the first nine months before coming back on our outlook.
Thank you, Véronique. Good evening, everyone. I will now set out in detail the commercial activity for the first nine months, followed by revenue, before concluding on our outlook. On the commercial activity, this slide gives an overview of the nine first months. Three figures before going into detail: 5,394 reservations, down 17% in volume. A backlog of EUR 3.5 billion at the end of September, which represents 1.6 years of activity, which we are continuing to boost selectively. In commercial real estate, we are reaching our targets, starting off with the commercial offering. This is probably the main message here, is de-risked. It comprises 4,891 lots, down 4%, of which 92% in high-demand areas, 15 points more than 2022, eligible for zero-rate loans at 100%. 44% of this offering is underway. Over 80% of these units are deliverable at over six months.
The absorption rate is below six months, versus over 20 months for the market at end 2025. We have a commercial offering which is appealing, where the solvency of households is under constraint. Our challenge is to make an attractive offer. To illustrate this, since 21st of September, we have been running a national campaign targeting first-time buyers, notarial fees offers. Looking at investors, 100% of our offering is eligible for the Jeanbrun package, excluding specific projects, and we reckon we have 20% market share in this area. We have also announced 10 days ago, an unprecedented partnership with La Redoute. Over 500 units of our offering can now be visited on a 3D basis. This innovation helps our clients to visualize and confirms that over the nine months, we have booked 5,394 reservations. Retail sales, 3,094 lots, down 10%, in line with the first half.
According to Adéquation, retail sales of the market are down 14% over eight months. Our retail sales are therefore holding up better than the market, with an isolated third quarter at - 12% versus the market down at 20%, 25%. First-time buyers are suffering the most, down 18%, due to higher rates and lower purchasing power. Retail investors are stable. Nexity has a 20% market share on the Jeanbrun package, with over 2,160 reservations since inception, versus 200 in June. This pace reflects the increased wait-and-see attitude of investors. Bulk sales account for 2,300 lots over nine months, down 26% at this point. Strongly focused on the fourth quarter of 2025, accounting for 3,800 lots, which is 50% of bulk sales for the year. Like each year, the fourth quarter will therefore be crucial, and we will provide a full report when we announce our annual results. On services.
A word on Serviced Properties. We have 138 residences at the end of September, which represents 17,000 units in 54 cities. This is student residences with an occupancy rate of 97% year-on-year, 12 months. In co-working, we have 86 sites, which is over 170,000 sq m with an occupancy rate of approximately 83%. Looking at distribution, the right-hand section of the slide shows the strategic partnership with the Groupe BPCE for distributing new, refurbished units after the announcement of the partnership project. Nexity and Groupe BPCE signed a framework agreement on the 17th of November. It will create a joint company for the selecting, acquiring, and structuring a program of real estate, new or refurbished real estate in France. The partnership will begin in December 2026. Finally, our revenue. It stands at close to EUR 1.6 billion for the first nine months, down 17%.
Residential sales accounting for 79% of revenue, are down 20% as expected. This reflects the decline in reservations that is embedded since 2022. Commercial property only accounts for 3% of revenue in line with the market, which is still at a low end of the cycle. Revenue and services are virtually stable at EUR 292 million. Serviced Properties account for approximately 80% of service revenue, up 2%. Distribution is down EUR 13 million, down 18%. This reflects the decline in the volume of completions, reflecting the market as well as a base effect due to the delivery of the Carré Invalides project in 2025. Furthermore, regarding our international business, we are on an extinction basis, and these are therefore excluded from the scope of New Nexity.
We have delivery of lots in Italy and of disposal of a land. To conclude, I will go back on the guidance of 2026, which we confirm improved operating profitability with a New Nexity COP up on 2026, continued decline in the leverage ratio with a return as soon as possible below the 3.5 level. This confirmation includes the deteriorating environment reported in the third quarter. Between now and the publication of our annual results on the 24th of February, all of our managerial effort will be focused on the projects set out by Véronique. Thank you very much, and we are now ready with Véronique to answer your questions.
Just to remind you, if you would like to ask a question, please press star five on your phone to join the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, press hashtag six on your telephone keypad. Next question. Ebrahim Homani from CIC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good evening, Véronique, Pierre. Thanks for the presentation. Just confirm the guidance in spite of the current climate that is increasingly challenging. My question is on the wording, because we do sense that you are a bit more cautious than 2020. You are confirming the guidance, but post 2026, on the other hand, we sense, Véronique, the sense that you share for Nexity as of 2026, we should see additional incentives to purchase real estate. Your sense for after. Second, on the services, we see revenue down in Q3, whereas it was positive, was up in H1.
The reason that accounts for this decline, and what impact on the margin? My third question is on investors, residential investors, on individuals, a sharp decline. More talked about the Jeanbrun scheme. Do you see anticipations as of when are you expecting? Might you expect to rebound the residential given development reservations down 20%, if I take the market numbers?
Well, maybe I'll ask Véronique a word on the political side of things. What I said earlier is that there's a real, let's say, we've known different years, a strong realization by all politicians of the danger that the housing crisis represents and protests on the cost of living, first and foremost, relating not only housing. There's a realization in France of this need to intervene on the housing front to take me. I also said the finance bill tabled by the government comprises housing measures for families, et cetera.
That's a good sign. But of course, nobody knows what's going to happen to the budget. I'll spare you the discussions of the ins and outs of budgetary discussion in Parliament, but it's a good sign. We see that in the program today, there's a real concern about housing. You saw that Marine Le Pen entered her campaign on the housing front. There's a housing policy, an RN, and there will be for the central bloc once they agree on a candidate. So there will be, in any event, a housing measure. Can't describe, but there necessarily will be housing measures. But I think we'll have to wait for a finance bill, a draft financial bill for 2028 adopted at the end of 2027. So we'll see that coming down the tracks in the finance bill for 2028.
Okay. Just to answer your two remaining questions, I'll start with the services. Well, it's really on the stock. You see co-working, well, the number cycles is down. We focused on profitability and cash generation. We're less in growing the stock, so there's a minor base effect there versus 2025. On the guidance, well, what you really need to take away here is we're confirming it where it doesn't depend on the context. We don't want it to depend on the context. We're amplifying the transformation of Nexity, adapting Nexity to the lower cycle that's here deeper and longer to continue our trajectory and rebuild our margins as planned, to deleverage, and to have the leverage ratio below 3.5x. Those are main actions followed by management for several months. We'll continue to exert pressure and actions with that aim in mind. Yes, please. We didn't hear you.
The next question comes from Olivier Monnoyeur from BNP PAM. Please go ahead.
Hello, good afternoon. I was wondering on the 2028 convertible bond. It is helpful that you mentioned the RCF is being discussed at the moment, and you are weeks away from finalizing it. So I was wondering at the point of conclusion, are you going to make an announcement? Also, I guess, is that preceding the discussion on the bond, and if you can share some thoughts on where you are in terms of refinancing that instrument. Is it going to be like for like? Do you have in mind to maybe target another convertible bond or any other instrument? Also, more importantly, what is the timeline for you to do this, given the tightening of macro conditions? It would be helpful that this, I guess, comes sooner rather than later. For example, do you have in mind to get a bond king to help on the refi?
Finally, separate to that, I had a question also on the BPCE partnership. You mentioned last time that some disposal proceeds. Are you more advanced or can you share a bit more on the timing and the quantum of that potential proceeding? Thank you.
Thank you for your question. I will answer on the second one firstly. On BPCE partnership, as I said in the presentation, we will share with you all the financial impacts in December, when the partnership will be very effective. We will be just after the closing. So you have to wait for December. On your first question, in fact, as we said, we negotiate all credit line, which is effective until February 2028. We will finalize this discussion in the following weeks. I remember that the total liquidity of Nexity permit to pay all the redemption dates that we have. We are opportunistic on all the other source types of liquidity, including the market bonds. But we do not share with you our calendar, and we are opportunistic on that.
Next question comes from Joan Sehim from ODDO BHF. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello. Thanks for taking my question. First question on the review of the business portfolio, excluding real estate development that you have emphasized. You mentioned several times that the co-working business activity could be partially disposed of. This portfolio review, does it now include other asset CDA? Do you think a Studéa, if you are considering a possible disposal Studéa, renewed confidence by bank partners to have a looming extension of the RCF. Could you share with us if we will have the same terms or condition, terms of size, seniority or covenants? Can we imagine that the size will be revised downward? Thanks.
Okay, so I will start with your last question.
Since the negotiation, as long it's not signed, we won't share it or we'll disclose it, as we say, the items in the press release in the coming weeks. We're making good, vigorous progress with our banking partners on that front, and we'll detail all that as soon as we can. On the business portfolio strategic review, as it says, any asset that isn't in real estate development will be reviewed to define not just the disposal, maintain a partnership disposal. We'll look at that, all that in light of the context, synergies in Nexity, and the cycle in which we're in.
Good. Thank you.