Good evening, and thank you for joining us for this conference call, which will be hosted by Luca de Meo, CEO of Renault Group, and Thierry Piéton, CFO of Renault Group. We'll start with a short introduction made by Luca, and then we'll follow with a Q&A session. Luca, the floor is yours.
So, hi, everyone. And thank you for joining this call, especially in such a short notice. As you know, in 2022, we announced our intention to potentially proceed with an IPO for Ampere. And the contemplated date, as you probably remember, was in the first half of 2024, but we said, depending on market conditions. As previously announced, also, Renault Group strategic plan, Renaulution, is self-funded, and the results, which will be released for 2023, confirm the group's ability to generate sustainable cash flow to finance its future, including the development of Ampere. Over the last semesters, Renault Group has significantly improved its performance to reach levels above initial expectations, and this offers the group greater flexibility and all the freedom of action it needs.
So therefore, considering both, stronger cash generation than expected, and obviously, also the current equity market conditions, we have decided, as it's ... I think, in a pretty pragmatic way, to cancel, and, I repeat, to cancel the Ampere IPO process. We think this is in the best interest of Renault Group, of its shareholder, and, and of course, of Ampere. One thing is very clear to all of us, and for me, in particular, with Ampere, we have, in the meantime, created a business that is unique in its kind. The IPO project has been a sort of accelerator, allowing us to set it up in record times. We have created a start-up mindset in the company, which allow us to constantly improve and innovate.
This is exactly what will make Ampere successful in its very challenging environment. Today, we are, I think, also more determined than ever to build the success. We think that Ampere is, first and foremost, an industrial project, and actually, is the most substantiated answer of the European automotive industry to the challenges coming from West and East, and to boost EV democratization in Europe. Since the beginning of November, when we carved it out, Ampere has been operating, and we can now observe, day after day, the performance and speed that this model, this organizational model, generates. We are rolling out our strategy as planned.
We are on schedule when it comes to our 40% cost reduction roadmap, and the cost for the Twingo will be, for example, 40% cheaper than the one of the Renault 5. The team is now focused, also on ensuring the success of the other two crucial launches, this year that we'll have, in spring and in summer. This is the Scenic and the Renault 5, and we have actually already very, very good feedbacks. Of course, the team is also focused on reducing development time, mastering the technology, and putting innovation at the core of Ampere. Let me conclude by reminding you that Ampere is also now a key element of Renault Group strategy and NextGen organization.
It's one among the team of five focused businesses that we have set up to address each one of the major automotive value chains. The organization is designed to capture value where it is today in automotive landscape, not only where it used to be traditionally. And it gives Renault Group an asset that pure players actually don't have: flexibility and the ability to adapt to the changing pace of the shift to EV. So as you will see, in few days, it is already demonstrating its ability to take this company where it has never been before. So thank you for your attention on this, quick introduction, and I leave it to Thierry and me, of course, you know, to open to your question. I want to involve you, Thierry, also, on the exercise. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much, Luca. The first question will come from Albertina, from Bloomberg.
Of course. We don't-
Hear me?
Yeah, we hear you.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay. Two questions, Luca. The first is, why now? It's quite still early on. Obviously, if you were to launch an IPO in May, you would have to start making roadshows now. But still, like, for example, this week, there will be a Sodexo spin-off, so, you know, that will probably test the appetite for French IPOs. So just curious as why the decision of today? Second question, is one of the reasons the fact that you are in talks with Volkswagen on the EV platform for the Twingo, so you actually do not need the IPO because you have cash coming in from Volkswagen and potentially other partners for the development of the platform?
... Well, I think that the reason why we're doing it now is that in the process, you know that there is a standard process, but the most important thing is that we are realizing more and more the performance of the group is getting better and better. And of course, Thierry will tell you more in a few days about what was 2023 for us. And then, compared to the initial, let's say, assumption we had two years ago when we announced the Ampere project and potentially the IPO, I think that the cash generation of this company has changed, you know, is at another level. And that allows us to finance completed the project, including the cash burn that we had anticipated in the first 18 months of Ampere's life.
So I think we don't need to go in that direction, and we don't do it. This is basically explanation, and it is better to do it now. We can, you know, we can focus the team on executing each one of the pieces of the puzzles, which is actually happening, and we don't get distracted from other things because we can afford it. On... I wouldn't comment on the Volkswagen thing, so we have talks to some OEMs, because the whole idea of the A-segment EV platform is a very good idea. We have a very good technical base. We have ability to produce and manufacture cars. We're gonna do the car in a record time in terms of development, but there's, you know, you can't link the two things, basically.
If you know, just to answer to your question, there's nothing to do with the decision we made. The decision we made is that we realize now that we have all the resources to continue the project on Ampere. You want to say something?
Yeah, just to come back on the funding...
Sorry, but you confirm that there are talks with some OEMs on EV platform development?
I'm telling you that the concept of the Twingo, you know, is characteristic. It's actually intriguing a few OEMs that so far don't have a solution for that. You know, my fight for, you know, revamping the segment of small urban cars, because I think with electric technology, we can both provide something that is relevant for consumer, at the same time, a new electric architecture, maybe new type of batteries, et cetera, we can now actually prove that we are able to do, to make money with more car, which is not the case with the traditional ICE, taking into account all the regulations. So I think that the switch to electric opens up, again, the opportunity to bring affordable urban cars for the people that they need.
They used to be 10%-15% of the European market, right? It's going down because of the current regulation on ICE cars. It changes everything with electric. We become intriguing for them because we're trying to reopen that kind of dossier.
I think on to come back on the funding question, 'cause it's obviously a key element in the decision-making. You know, when we built the Renaulution plan, we had a couple objectives. You know, the first one was the recovery of the performance of the business, but on the longer term, what we wanted to do is fund the structure that we're putting in place, so fund Horse and Ampere, return to investment grade, and gradually raise the dividend, and be able to grow the company in that way. When we built Renaulution, we had already built it in a fashion that wasn't dependent on the IPO.
But if we look at the cash generation since we built that plan, you know, in 2022 versus the initial guidance of EUR 1 billion of free cash flow, we did 2.1, so that was a 1.1 billion upside. This year, we started with a guidance of EUR 2 billion, and now we have a guidance of 2.5. We're not gonna come off that guidance, obviously. So in a couple of years, it's, you know, 1.6 billion of incremental cash flow that we generated. So now we have the firm capability to fund the structure, to return to investment grade and the schedule that we're hoping for, and to raise the dividend at the same time, without having to go on the market to raise additional funds and without diluting the shareholders at the group level.
So I think it's the right, you know, responsible decision to make. We have an opportunity just to do everything that we were planning on doing with the upside of the cash generation that we now have, which is sustainable and is going to continue in the future.
Now we have a question from Peter Campbell, from Financial Times. Please open your mic, Peter. Thank you.
Good afternoon, Luca.
Hi, Peter.
Thank you very much for taking our questions.
Hi.
2, if I may. Did investor concerns over the current European EV slowdown play any part in this decision? And second, and this is more of a, a kind of personal question: you've obviously put a lot of your personal credibility as the Renault CEO into this IPO drive. Do you feel in any way that that might have been damaged by today's decision? And is that gonna change the way that you think about, you know, your leadership of the company in the future?
No, I think that, you know, my credibility, of course, is in the overall equation that we are building with different variables on Renault. I think that, you know, so far, you know, what we did in Renault was pretty unexpected, I have to say. We're gonna bring the company this year at the level that it has never achieved in 125 years. It's not a decision on the IPO or not IPO that I guess will, you know, impact my credibility. Not only my credibility, but the credibility of the whole team, which is more important. So I don't think so. At the end of the day, what is important is that we continue to develop Ampere. I think that Ampere is a very, very solid case.
In fact, everything that we have, you know, started is going the direction we want to go on manufacturing, on engineering, on the launch of the cars, on the cost side. So I can reassure any, let's say, any journalist and any analyst that it's we are completely on track with what we wanted to do. And I think that, you know, even the process of IPO, in fact, accelerated the thing because we had a kind of an ideal deadline in front of us, and it pushed the teams to take a lot of good decisions. So I see it pretty positively so far. Is the context influencing the decision?
I think it's one of the elements, because, I mean, we would be, you know, being totally blind and not looking left and right would have been not, not totally responsible as a managerial team. I think there is a swing on the other side, you know, on the opposite side with EV, which I consider honestly, pretty childish, because, you know, three years ago, everybody was telling us that if we would not go 100% EV, we were ba- we would have been a bunch of zombies in, in, in 10 years. And now everybody's telling that we shouldn't do EV because whatever the profitability, the thing, et cetera, et cetera. I think we need to get... People like us, they have to keep cool heads all the time. I think that EV will be a dominant technology in Europe because of regulation, okay?
Not because of the 2035 ban. A lot of people forget that we have the CAFE in the middle. So 2025, we need to achieve 95 grams CO2 on average for the fleet, okay? 2030, it's 50, okay? And you know that even if you take one of the best combustion engine in Europe, a small hybrid from Renault or Toyota or et cetera, it's actually 80 grams. So you know, you know, you don't need to be a, you know, a Nobel Prize in mathematics to understand that you need a big part of zero-emission cars. So electric car is a train that's already left the station, and Ampere will be one of the drivers for Renault to be one of the champions when it comes to the decarbonization.
So, the project continues. I think that what is important is that Ampere proves all the numbers and the target we gave ourself, and the IPO is a side, you know, it's a side dish into this, this story for me.
Thank you very much.
We'll now take some questions from sell-side analysts. Saul Coleman from Bernstein, could you please open your mic?
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. A couple of them. Firstly, have you seen recently any kind of diverging performance from your EV or your ICE models in terms of order books, pricing, discounts, et cetera? And secondly, presumably, this places additional cash burn from Ampere onto Renault's own books. Does that push back your anticipated ratings upgrade, or is that safe at this point?
You want to answer to this second one?
Sure. Sure. You want me to start with the cash burn?
Yeah.
Yeah. So, look, no, again, you know, part of the decision for calling the IPO off is the fact that we're actually generating more cash. So, you know, we're in a situation where we can achieve all the goals that we had set to ourself ahead of schedule without having to go to the market. So it, it's very, very short answer, absolutely not. It doesn't postpone the schedule that we had set to ourself. In fact, we remain ahead and will continue to do so.
I think that, you know, since let's say second half of last year, we haven't seen fundamental shifts of the dynamics of the EV segment in terms of, let's say, pricing or in terms of, you know, residual value. It's actually since a few months a little bit more complicated for everybody, okay? You look at things like, but it's actually changing geographically, because one of the... For example, the decision was made in Germany to take off some incentives from, of course, had an impact. But on the other side, you have France that is pushing with some incentives, and the market is very dynamic. So all in all, I think we are on track with what we were planning for this year.
You know, we're really looking forward to get Scenic and then the Renault 5 into the market. These are two products that not everybody has, okay? And they come from Ampere. And I think that both products will contribute to democratize and, you know, EV in Europe. And democratizing means you have to sell volumes, okay? And both cars are, in my opinion, especially, you know, the Renault 5, the Renault 5, the platforms, the what we call the CMF-B EV, is the first small car, next generation platform, pure EV in Europe. And we are two years ahead of any competitor. So I count on a lot on the fact that, you know, the Renault 5, the Alpine, the Alpine A290 and the Renault 4 will be a success.
That's what we're gonna do, and, yeah. I mean, it's a complicated environment for in general, right? But I think that, Renault, as we said many times, this year, might be some kind of anti-cyclical because of the product effect, effect. We have, you know, 10 launches in 1 year, it never happened, you know, in the last 20 years for Renault. So it's our time to, you know, to gain market share, because of the product, offensive. Thank you.
We now have a question from Pushkar Pendlkar, HSBC. Pushkar, please, could you open your mic?
Yeah. Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just, Luca, you mentioned about the feedback for the Scenic and the Renault, and the Renault 5. If you can just confirm that, the feedback or the orders for those particular cars, that has not had any input into the cancellation of the Ampere IPO decision. That's my first question. And second is on just the less stricter Euro 5, sorry, Euro 7 regulations. Do you think that that's going to prolong the life of ICE, and therefore, the BEVs will probably have a slower adoption, and all your targets then move to the right?
Well, look, I think-
Is that a possibility?
I think that for Scenic and Renault 5, it's too early to you know to make an estimation on the orders, because we haven't actually opened the orders of the thing. So basically for both cars. So Scenic is not yet into everywhere in the dealer network, so it's early. We'll have to wait for Scenic, maybe I would say 3-4 months. And for the Renault 5, it will be fully you know sold in something like September, just after the summer. So we'll have to wait maybe end of this year, beginning of next year, to understand the full potential of the thing.
Of course, we have, you know, a feeling based on, you know, feedback that's coming from dealer network or media, specialized media, or simply social media, and we clearly feel that those cars have a lot of potential, okay? That's for sure, but there is no quantitative... For sure, it didn't influence the decision on the IPO. I repeat, the decision was mainly motivated by the fact that we realized that we had the money to do it, and that this cash generation will be sustainable for Renault, and that's why we did it, okay? Your second question was about,
Euro 7.
Yeah.
Euro 7.
Look, I think that Euro 7, you know, kind of cancellation, because you have to understand that Euro 7 was not canceled totally. We have a few things that are still part of the rules that will be given to us. For sure, it was postponed because initially, the first initial scenario was, mid-2025, so the thing will start beginning of 2027, okay? So in our planning, of course, it relieves us a little bit from, you know, spending the money, et cetera. But you still have things like, particulate on brakes, attrition on tires, onboard diagnostics, et cetera, on which we will have to continue to work. So it's not that Euro 7 went away totally, okay?
A part of it went away, substantial parts, and then the, you know, the deadline was pushed back, okay? So it brings us a little bit of relief. It means technically that you can continue with some engine combination a little bit longer, okay? That means that maybe we'll sell a little bit more, you know, of ICE cars in 2025 and in 2026, okay? But I repeat, just to let you understand the logical thing. We have CAFE, so don't look only at the emission thing. We have to respect the, you know, the average of the fleet in 2025 and in 2030, okay? So it's even before 2027, right? And it's pretty challenging for everybody, okay?
And if you don't, if you don't respect that, then you're gonna have to pay a lot of fines. So that's why this is a motivation for us to, you know, keep, keep pushing BEVs, because basically, a BEV is worth 100 ICE, if you look the... If you, if you make the math, right? 1 BEV is, is worth 100 ICE, and that's why we have to push. And finally, I have to say, we are all committed to, to decarbonize transportation. So I think it's a good thing. It's a, it's a, it's a battle worth fighting also for the future and the future generation. So we are in the battle of... I mean, everybody now is kind of doubting about the thing, et cetera, et cetera.
I think it's not, honestly, it's not very, you know, balanced to have this kind of shift, right? So the industry is engaged in decarbonation. We are putting- I think the European industry is putting already, like, EUR 250 billion on ecological transition. So now we have to make it happen, yeah? And EV is a very good thing. And EV- small EV is even better, and that's the home turf of Renault since 125 years. So we have a great opportunity, I think.
Thank you, Luca. We now have a question from t Philippe Houchois , Jefferies. Philippe, please, could you open your mic?
Yes. Good evening. Thank you very much. My question is, the decision not to do the IPO, how does that impact discussion you've had with Nissan, Mitsubishi, and potentially Qualcomm about becoming shareholders in Ampere?
You wanna... Yeah.
Sure. So look, if you start with Nissan and Mitsubishi, when we did the investment agreement with Nissan and Mitsubishi, there was in the contract an alternative investment agreement, so the case was contemplated. And Nissan expressed the wish to potentially be able to invest, regardless of whether we do the IPO or not, and obviously, we welcome that... And so it's something that we're going to have to discuss with the partner now, but it was contemplated in the contract, and there is an agreement in place that would allow for the investment, regardless of the IPO or not. This is not the case for Qualcomm, so the investment from Qualcomm was dependent on the IPO.
So, you know, we've obviously informed Qualcomm now of our decision, and we'll have to discuss what it means with them. You know, whether they want to participate in some other shape or form, or if we keep it, the way it is.
Right. But that means there'll be some dilution of existing shareholders if Nissan comes in. That is going to happen?
There would be if Nissan comes in, which is one of the elements that we need to discuss, yeah.
But is it confirmed or not, that Nissan will come in or not? That's what I'm trying to understand.
The contract allows for Nissan to come in. Whether they come in or not-
Right.
We decide to apply the contract, you know, is something that we need to discuss, given that this discussion is only being announced today.
All right. Okay, understood. Thank you very much.
We'll take the last question, which is a question from Gilles Guillaume, Reuters. Please open your mic. Gilles? Gilles Guillaume from Reuters.
Sorry, I didn't find the right button. Just two quick questions, if I may. Regarding the Nissan and Qualcomm question, on Mitsubishi, is Mitsubishi also part of the contract with the possibility for them to come in even if the IPO doesn't happen? And a more general question: I still don't understand what decided you not to go ahead with the IPO? Sorry. Because you always said that it was a must-have for Ampere, but that it was important to get visibility and to help put a real value on Renault. And what decided you to call it off so early in the year? Because you had a few months to take that decision before calling it off. Thank you.
Gilles, I never said that there was a must. So sorry, Gilles. I never said that there was a must. Of course, it could have been a interesting scenario.
I meant a nice to have. Sorry. A nice to have.
Nice to have is different from must, is, is different from must. Now, we've taken this decision, and I repeat, to make it very simple, is that we have the money to push the project as it is without having to go to the market. I think it's also good news. It, it tells you that behind the... You know, the machine is working, it's generating enough, enough cash. So we, we, we, we made, made the decision because of availability of cash to do this, and we look at the context, which is not the ideal one, you know, on the EV market today. The conversation is going probably right now in the, in the wrong direction, I, I, I believe, so it's probably not time to do it.
For the MMC, the Mitsubishi part of the question, the agreement with Mitsubishi is exactly the same as Nissan. So they're committed to invest, regardless of the IPO. So it's something that we'll have to discuss with them as well. Same, same agreement.
Thank you.
So I think it was the last. So I thank you very much for, you know, for spending your evening with us. As I said, Ampere is, I think is a wonderful industrial project, and much is going to happen the next, in the next months. So we move on, we execute our plan, we stay focused. This is important, so take care, have a nice evening, and, of course, the press and investor relations team are totally available if you have additional curiosity and questions. Thank you very much.