Rubis (EPA:RUI)
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Apr 24, 2026, 5:38 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Sep 5, 2024

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Rubis 2024 half year results presentation. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be in a listen-only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions, which will be addressed at the end of the presentation. You may submit questions via the webcast at any time. If you are connected via the audio presentation, you may press star one on your telephone keypad to register your question at any time. If you require assistance, please press star zero to be connected to an operator. I'll now hand the call over to Clémence Mignot, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

Thank you, Melissa, and good evening, everyone. Thanks for being here with us tonight. I'm here with Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik, Managing Partner of Rubis, and Marc Jacquot, CFO, will be handling the presentation, and I will moderate the questions at the end. Clarisse, the floor is yours.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

Good evening. So, on slide three, I don't know if you can see it from your computer. Yeah. Okay. So for those of you joining us today for the first time, I'm going to give a quick overview of the group. So Rubis is a global group operating in the energy sector for more than thirty years. The group is providing and distributing safe, reliable, and sustainable energy, while handling most of the time, the whole supply chain to B2C and B2B customers. We operate in three different geographies: Africa, Caribbean, and Europe. All the countries in which we operate benefit from our expertise in the supply chain, and we adapt our products and services to local needs and challenges. So for example, in Europe, we offer LPG and renewable energy through solar farms.

In the Caribbean, we distribute LPG, fuel, sorry, and soon solar energy to our customers. We used to own a JV with an American infrastructure fund, a bulk liquid storage, which is in the process of being sold to that fund. The closing of this operation is subject to one remaining CP, which would be waived shortly, likely a closing in Q4 2024. So let us dive directly into H1 2024 highlights. So the first half was one of solid operating performance, with an EBITDA stable on a comparable base, which is quite a performance, considering that 2023 was particularly strong for the group. Rubis Photosol secured portfolio, passing a major threshold, reaching one gigawatt, representing an increase of 55% year over year. The cash flow continues to stand at a high level, illustrating the strength of our operations.

All these elements make us quite confident we will reach our guidance for 2024. Let's move on to slide six to go deeper in the operating highlights of each division. On the energy distribution side, volume increased by 4% on the three continents, Africa, Caribbean, and Europe. Adjusted gross margin remained stable over the first half, with the unit margin remaining at EUR 140 per cubic meter. Those results are explained by a strong performance of our operations in the Caribbean, both in our two activities, the retail and marketing activity and the support and services activity. Which means globally, that the last year momentum will continue, and Caribbean should continue to perform in the future well and be a strong contributor to the group's results in the future.

Regarding LPG distribution in Europe, we are holding up well, with volumes increasing by 3% and still gaining market shares in our different European markets. In Africa, the political and economic context remains difficult, with poor weather conditions and protests, in Kenya in particular. As regards renewable electricity, development continues as planned. The secure portfolio of solar projects reaches 1 gigawatt in June 2024, meaning a 55% increase compared to June 2023. The development portfolio continues to develop, with a 23% increase since December 2023. EBITDA is growing, but at a slower pace than anticipated due to three main factors. The first one is bad weather in France this year, which impacted electricity production. The second one is the spot prices decrease.

As a reminder, end of 2022 , Photosol benefited from a specific regime, allowing sale of electricity at spot price for eighteen months to compensate for the increase in interest rates and inflation. And the third one is development costs, costs which are needed to ensure future growth and weigh on EBITDA generation. We remain at the end very enthusiastic about the development of Rubis Photosol, and look forward to explaining all the mechanism behind at the Photosol Day in 10 days. On slide seven, I would like to come back to our investment criterion in each of our businesses, as it is a question we often get from the market.

Regarding the energy distribution division, our strategy is to catch opportunities, organic or growth, to complement our existing businesses and locations in order to strengthen our competitive position. Considering the challenges we are facing in the energy sector towards the energy transition and the regulation, we focus on reasonable EBITDA multiples. We shall pay back in three to four years while assessing the inherent country risks and profile. The acquisitions in that business are half financed through debt. Regarding the renewable energy business, our strategy is to develop ground-mounted solar power plants rapidly and extensively in France and in other European countries, where solar development ambitions are high and the legal framework is favorable and protective. Our financial criteria are the following. We look at projects with 7-9% return, mostly financed with non-recourse debt at SPV level, at least 80%.

In France, it's more like 90%, and we secure income over long periods. With the state, it's 20 years, and for the corporate PPA, it's between 10 years and 20 years. Photosol is also working to develop the small-scale ground-mounted segment and storage, as was the idea when we acquired Photosol. The first synergies between Rubis Energy, so the distribution division and the renewable division, Photosol, are developing, particularly in France, the home, and in English Caribbean, with the deployment of joint offers for small power plants targeting our professional customers. In every investment decision we make, the criterion of the return it will generate is scrupulously studied. Our aim, of course, is to maintain the group's overall profitability.

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

Thank you, Clarisse, and good evening to all. Before we dig into further detail of Rubis' performance, let's have a quick focus on the non-recurring and exceptional elements to compare apples to apples. Let's focus on those elements at the EBITDA level. Starting with this story, which serves as a comparable basis, let me remind you that H1 2023 included EUR 36 million related to Nigeria FX pass-through and the refund from the state of Madagascar, contained in 2023 and related to 2022. Those amounts artificially inflated our performance last year. For the compensation-related items, notably IFRS 2, impacted our EBITDA by EUR 6 million , which was the usual level.

Now, looking at H1 2024, IFRS 2 and other compensations related items impacted our EBITDA by EUR 15 million , as our employee stock ownership plan has been oversubscribed, and the share price increased significantly at the time of the capital increase. Also, some other non-recurring elements that are related to AGM preparation, governance assessment, Photosol Day, and some M&A sizes should be taken into account as non-recurring. So all in all, if you want to isolate the pure operating performance of this H1 and compare it to H1 2023, you need to exclude those elements. The pure operating performance is slightly down by EUR 3 million on a comparable basis, which represent 1%.

Same principle at EBIT level, where you have all the elements stated for EBITDA, plus in H1 2024, a catch-up impact in D&A due to the reduction of the accounting life expectancy from 28 years to 25 years of two bitumen vessels due to more restrictive vetting policies. This catch-up effect represents an additional charge of EUR 4 million in H1 2024. Also, as we mentioned during our full year review, at net income level, we have the first application of the OECD Global Minimum Tax. That impact is limited at EUR 12 million over the first half of the year. In this presentation, when we talk about figures on a comparable basis, we exclude the elements I have just mentioned. Let's now have a look at the half year highlights.

So a solid performance with group EBITDA on a comparable basis, down 1% year-on-year. Both retail and marketing and support and services were down 1% versus H1 2023. Renewable electricity EBITDA was up 12% at EUR 11 million , driven by the additional capacity in operation. Important to note that our foreign exchange losses were way behind last year, but still amounted to EUR 35 million in 2024, to be compared to EUR 55 million . It's a net of compensations in 2023, showing the continuing work on the balance sheet structure and local books that were conducting to reduce the losses. So net income amounted to EUR 130 million , which is minus 4% on a comparable basis, and minus 24% versus reported numbers.

Our balance sheet remains healthy, with the leverage at one point six times, excluding Photosol non-recourse debts, and slightly increasing versus year-end, due to the fact that actually we paid the dividend in June 2024, while we are contained only for six months of generation of free cash flow on the period, so an unusual increase of the leverage at mid-year. CapEx decreased significantly at Rubis Energy level at H1 2023, so the purchase of new vessels. And investment in the renewable keeps up its pace. And finally, our cash generation remains at a high level, with operating cash flow at 6% compared to last year at the same period.

After an excellent 2023, this relatively stable performance on a comparable basis illustrate the ability of our business model to deliver, even in an environment that can be turbulent in some locations. Let's look at our different businesses in more details. At the EBIT level, you see on this slide that Africa suffers some difficult operational conditions. The bitumen, in terms of volume, is still slower than in Nigeria, but other countries performs well, so South Africa in particular. East Africa suffered from flooding in H1, and Kenya saw a wave of protests against the finance law, leading to a lower level of fuel consumption, as Clarisse mentioned. Aviation pickup continued, making us optimistic about the future of this business in the region.

FX in Kenya was unstable in Q1, more stable in Q2, impacting the value of our inventory and deteriorating our margins, as we mentioned during our Q1 release. Look at the Caribbean now. It continues to be the first contributor to the group performance. The retail is booming in Jamaica. Aviation is growing in Barbados, with more flight rotations and a good tourist season. C&I is performing particularly well in Guyana and Suriname, boosted by the mining and the oil industry. The political and security situation in Haiti in H1 was still very deteriorated. We can note that some international efforts, including UN-mandated security missions, are underway to restore order and support the Haitian police, and the mission started in June 2024 . We'll see certainly some effects in the future.

In Europe, flattish contribution, but still at a high level. No decrease in volumes. Auto gas demand increased. Switzerland winter was warm, and summer was cold. So it's the double dip in a way, because heating consumption was lower, and also we benefited from less outdoor activity. So that's the impact here. Support and services was EUR 6 million over the period. H1 2023 was high due to the timeline effect in the crude deliveries to SARA, and bitumen trading was a bit lower as demand in the US was not there in Q2. Now, let's have a look at the renewable electricity production. Revenue reached EUR 24 million , slightly down versus H1 2023.

The increase in production related to the assets in operation was offset by the opportunity of selling in 2023 at spot price, as explained by Clarisse. We had also some bad weather condition and maybe a lower load factor. Just a word on the load factor. You know, the model that Photosol is doing when they bid for tender includes an average load factor. We see at some periods, you know, we can be below the average sometimes, and sometimes we can be above the average. Theoretically, you know, it will catch up at some point in the future. Here we are not really talking about a risk, you know, about production.

We are more talking about volatility in the production. On the OpEx side, so the OpEx increased and was in line with new assets operated, but also due to development costs that have increased to support the future growth and therefore impaired EBITDA. We can note that H2 should be in the same range as H1 due to this delayed impact. Let's go on slide twelve. On the financial results. I have already commented on the EBIT and EBITDA. Let's focus on the bottom of the P&L. The share of net income from associates included only Q1 in 2024 related to Rubis Terminal, as we put this asset in asset held for sale.

While the reference in 2023 included both Q1 and Q2. The net financial charges have increased by EUR 30 million, not including the IFRS 16 impact. Interest rates, you know, have increased across the board, and notably in Kenya, where the local currency debt rates almost doubled, reaching 18%. Also, some financing lines have been renewed in 2024 , in H1, thereby increasing the cost of debt. The Photosol cost of debt increased accordingly with the debt, which is consistent with the new assets and operations. Let's have a look at the effects of the charges amounted to EUR 32 million and are down, and well down 60% versus last year. So as you know, at some subsidiary level, some countries do not offer any hedging instruments, like in Kenya and Nigeria, for example.

The policy we put in place to hedge the variation in Kenyan shilling in naira is more efficient, and we continue improving it. The increase in tax rate that you observe is due to the implementation of the OECD Global Minimum Tax with a related amount of EUR 12 million in H1 2024. Let's focus now on the net debt on slide 13. The total net debt amounted to EUR 1.5 billion , with the corporate debt amounted to EUR 1.1 billion , with a healthy leverage of 1.6 times corporates, and 2.1 times when you look at the total leverage excluding IFRS 16. Note that following the USPP issuance in July at the Rubis Energy level, the average maturity of the debt has been extended to 5 years.

To understand the evolution of the net debt, you know, the variation in net debt is explained by the generation of operating cash flow for EUR 352 million. After the fact that the LPG and fuel prices were quite stable over the period, it had limited impact on the working capital. The CapEx amounted to EUR 203 million, which was much lower than last year, which integrated the acquisition of some vessels at Rubis Energy, and the dividend payment in June 2024 represented EUR 211 million.

Also, note that our liquidity level is very comfortable because we have EUR 133 million of undrawn RCF facility, in addition to our EUR 412 million of cash. Clarisse?

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

Okay. Thank you, Marc, so to summarize the highlights of the first half of the year, we can say that we had a very solid operating performance that proves that our diversified business model is very relevant, weighed by super strong performance in the Caribbean, despite a challenging context in Africa. Cash flow generation stays at a high level, proving that our operations are healthy. EBITDA is stable from a very high comparable basis in first half 2023. Net income landed at minus 4% over the period, which is good, considering the several headwinds, sorry, we faced, and our debt remains well under control, so as a conclusion, the first half of the year was not exactly consistent with the outlook provided during full year results, but illustrated the relevance of our multi-country and multi-product strategy.

For the rest of the year, the Caribbean continues to operate at a very high level of activity, and we do not expect any slowdown in 2024. The situation remains uncertain in Africa, Kenya in particular, which suffered from the unexpected Kenyan shilling revaluation and some operating challenges, as we talked before, due to weather conditions and inflation. The situation is settling down in Africa, but we continue to monitor changes in the fixed rates very closely. At Rubis Photosol, development will maintain a high pace, which will require spending that will have an effect on EBITDA generation in the short future. The capital gain from Rubis Terminal will be accounted for in full year 2024 net income.

All in all, we stay confident enough to confirm our 2024 guidance of an expected EBITDA between EUR 725 million and EUR 775 million, a net income Group share stable, and a dividend growth confirmed. Thanks a lot for your attention. We are now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, for those connected via the webcast, you may submit your questions at any time. For those connected to the audio, you may press star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. To withdraw your question for any reason, you may press star two. You will be advised when to ask your question.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

I have two questions from Alexandre Letz, the analyst covering the stock at JP Morgan. The first one is: What explains the decrease of 8% in Europe, despite increase in volume and gross margin? And the second question is: What explains the decrease of 30% in gross margin in Africa?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

So for the question about Europe, you see, we are not talking about any group members. So as I explained to you, we have some one-off actually that impacted the EBITDA level in Europe, actually. So when you look at the margin, actually, those one-off are not integrated, but when you look at the EBITDA, they are. The other question? The gross margin in Africa. So the gross margin in Africa in 2024 reached EUR 135 million , versus EUR 190 million in 2023. So this variation of EUR 56 million is due to two effects.

So the basic effects from 2023, as I explained, which included EUR 25 million of extra margin in Nigeria, and EUR 11 million of refund by the Madagascar government related to the non-application of the pricing formula in 2022. So the total impact was EUR 36 million , and so we had it in H1 2023, and it did not occur again in 2024.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

Last question from Alexandre is, is your net income guidance meaning stable versus 2023 on a comparable basis, on a published basis?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

So, what we can say that this guidance is on a published basis. However, keep in mind that we are expecting a capital gain from the sale of Rubis Terminal that will contribute to reach this guidance.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

One question from Jean-Luc Romain at CIC: How have the months of July and August compared to the Q2 in Africa in terms of volume and margin?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

You know, not easy to reply to this question, but what we can say is that we didn't observe any major changes in the activity in Africa. We are, of course, to be noted that we didn't suffered from exchange rate negative effect during this period.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

One question from Nicolas Royot at Portzamparc : Can we consider the 25% tax rate as normative for full year and beyond? Can you recall the 2023 figures you compared to for the net income group share? So that's the same question. Yes. For the tax rate.

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

Yes. So for the tax rate, we can consider, you know, the same tax rate as last year, plus the impact of the...

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

See-

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

... the Global Minimum Tax impact, which is estimated for the year to a range between EUR 20 million and EUR 25 million .

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

We then have several questions about the sale of Rubis Terminal, and the timing expected for the closing, and the payment of the dividend.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

... So we, as I told you before, we just have one CP that is remained to be lifted. So we don't really want to give an exact date, but we think that it will happen before the end of the year and probably closing in Q4 2024 , and expectedly a dividend...

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

Just after.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

Just after. So normally before the end of the year.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

We have one more question about the from Luc saying the stable net income guidance of EUR 355 million in 2024, and the EUR 113 million published net income in H1, imply more than EUR 220 million in H2. Is all of the increase versus H1 due to your expected Rubis Terminal capital gain?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

So yes, like Clémence just explained, that the sale of Rubis Terminal capital gain. The sale of Rubis Terminal will contribute to the net income in H2 and is part of this guidance.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

And we also have quite some exceptional items in H1 that won't reproduce in H2.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

Another question about the dividend. About the expected base dividend per share and the growth rate. Does the usual growth rate include the special dividend for Rubis Terminal itself?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

No, the dividend related to the sale of Rubis Terminal is a kind of exceptional dividend. So when we talk about the distribution increasing and to be distributed in June 2025, we are not considering the dividend related to Rubis Terminal capital gain.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

One, another question about buybacks. Do you plan to buy back shares, be it to compensate employee compensation plan?

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

You know, buybacks can be to compensate capital increase, can be healthy. This is something that we

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

We are considering.

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

We could consider, yes.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

I have no more recent questions. Do you have any question online?

Operator

There are currently no audio questions.

Clémence Mignot
Head of Investor Relations, Rubis

Thank you all for joining us tonight. We will be happy to talk to you again in a few days at the Photosol Day, and we remain available if you have other questions in the meantime. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. That concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Hello, I have the main feed line back in the sub-conference.

Marc Jacquot
CFO, Rubis

We may decide don't he

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