Rubis (EPA:RUI)
France flag France · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
34.06
-0.30 (-0.87%)
Apr 24, 2026, 5:38 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H1 2022

Sep 8, 2022

Jacques Riou
Managing Partner, Rubis

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and thank you for giving us some of your time. We have gathered to discuss our business for the first half year of 2022. If you're familiar with Rubis, the group, the fundamentals are fairly similar to what they were. We're focusing on energy and oil prices, of course. Those are great factors of our business. There has been much variation and volatility. These prices have gone up 123% over the period as compared to the previous period, so a significant hike in the oil prices. I'm sure you're familiar with what explains that. There's more than enough coverage in the news. Second element. The COVID era sort of came to an end with the end of 2021.

2021 was particularly impacted by COVID. I mean, before COVID, people tend to think about 2020, but actually, 2020, the first quarter was fine. COVID was really a strong factor for 2021. That led to an uptick, and we all know what kind of events are unfolding in Ukraine. All of this leads to an environment that is not necessarily particularly conducive to business. However, H1 has led to excellent financials, and we'll see the numbers, the figures later on. We're somewhere around 20% growth, but we'll see that in greater detail later. Let me, at this point in time, just give you a quick overview of how things have gone over the last few years.

2019 is the last full year we're pre-COVID, and that set a record high for our results. In 2020, look, all sorts of people were saying that was going to be disastrous for our business. We all know that the prices fell, plummeted even. The economy went on pause and, nonetheless, we only went down 9% compared to the record high without any subsidies and government support. We actually paid out bonuses to our staff. So much for 2020. 2021, well, some people were thinking that oil prices were skyrocketing, and that would be disastrous for Rubis. Well, no, we actually improved our position and almost reached the 2019 record numbers.

As concerns 2022, well, the environment isn't much more comfortable to operate in, and we are producing very good results over H1. I think makes sense to remind you of this. Over the last few years, what we've been trying to say is that our business model is particularly resilient. I mean, oil at $120 a barrel is not new. Over the last 10 years, it's been anywhere between $20 and $120 a barrel. We are used to operating in this environment and to delivering. We've seen significant increase in volumes.

Unit margins have also gone up, and this is quite unusual insofar as when commodity prices go up on the international market, margins tend to stay stable, and are difficult to increase. That wasn't the case here. As concerns our half-year results, I think we can say that the numbers are good. Moreover, we have made a very large acquisition, Photosol, that was integrated into our results over the second quarter of the first half. As you may know, Photosol specializes in renewables and, maybe more specifically, PV in France. It's a very sizable business, somewhere around EUR 800 million. Very early on in the half-year, we sold off a large terminal in Turkey. The conditions were good, with a capital gain.

Why did we do so? Why did we sell it? Well, the terminal was somewhat different from the rest of our terminals, and there was much volatility relating to the geopolitical environment of the region. I think you're familiar with the region near enough to the Syrian Turkish border. We considered that the things would get more complicated over the next few years, and we decided to sell it off. Nowadays, Rubis Terminal, our joint venture is therefore refocused on continental. Can I also say that, again, the balance sheet is very robust. Corporate debt to EBITDA is 2.1, roughly. Perfectly reasonable despite the acquisitions. Lastly, we have further developed our ESG policies. We announced a carbon footprint reduction goals to -30% compared to 2019.

A 20 percentage point increase in the reduction. We'll come back to that later. If you look at the figures for the period, as you can see, volumes are up 7%. This time we actually run a comparison with 2019. That's the extra column so that you can see what happened over this very important period. Unit margins has gone up 6% over last year. It's still down on 2019, however. Over that fairly lengthy period, there has been a change in the mix and some of the unit margins are lower. If you look at EBITDA, we're at EUR 314 million, up 22% on the previous period, up 16% on 2019, so remarkable.

In EBIT, EUR 244 million, up 30% or 14%, depending on your reference point. I would say that growth is particularly balanced in the three regions we operate in, Europe, Caribbean, and Africa, at least that part of Africa where we do business. Net income, EUR 170 million, so up 25% on last year, up 8% on 2019. We also offer here an adjusted net income, quite simply because there are a number of non-recurring expenses, for instance, related to the high expenditure related to Photosol. Conversely, selling off Turkey has led to some additional income. All in all, it actually is a small difference, only about EUR 1 million between net income and net adjusted income.

It sort of comes out in the wash, but it was worth looking at. Adjusted net income EUR 169, up 17%. Adjusted earnings per share, up 20%. We know that this is the ultimate criterion. We know how significant that is for our shareholders. Let's look at the group as it is. Well, there are basically three business lines, all in energy. We have our traditional business of retail and support and services, which make up a single consistent economic unit, spread across 40 areas, across the three regions I mentioned. We're talking here about distributing LPG, bitumen. It includes the petrol stations also. Also C&I, the commercial and industrials. Basically everything you can find in a standard petrol station business.

We also have a sizable renewable energies business which accounts for something like 20% of the group value. Our recent investment is a massive, significant investment. It's not just about PR. As I said, we're looking at renewable energies, so PV in France mainly. These are on the ground, not up on the roofs. We will have things that are as extensive as possible. Thirdly, we have Rubis Terminal, a joint venture on storage together with our American partners. You're familiar with that if you've been following us for some time. The Turkish terminal came under that division.

The division is now in Rotterdam and Antwerp, significant storage sites in France and four ones in Spain. This is indeed very noteworthy because there is no similar group in Europe or American group for that matter, with quite a large foothold in Rotterdam and Antwerp, and also France and Spain. I would say that the group is therefore one of the leading players in Europe in that business, and is recognized to be one indeed. If you look at things since 2019, storage, so Rubis Terminal, has been ensuring growth ever since 2019. Namely, 2020 and also 2021 and 2022. A growth to the tune of 5%. At the same time, we've had a change in the products that we were handling.

Petrol related products now account for more than 50% of the products handled in Rubis Terminal storage facilities. This is all very new and has happened over the last two years only. We're mainly handling now chemicals, biofuels, and foodstuffs. If you look at Europe, we're mainly handling LPG, which admittedly is fossil fuel, but widely acknowledged to be a transition fuel for rural and suburban areas, and is difficult to substitute. We're also one of the leading PV electricity producers, and we have this storage facility. Outside of Europe, we're mainly handling standard fuels, LPG and bitumen. Products with a larger carbon content, but products that are perfectly adjusted to economies that are very different from European economies.

Before we delve into the figures a little more, let me mention briefly Photosol, which is really a key acquisition for the future, on a par with the other two businesses I mentioned. What you can see here is two sets of things. On the right of the slide, you can see our pipeline and existing operational capacity. At the end of last year, we had 313 MW in operation, and now it's 330 MW out of the 480 MW secured. We have 57 MW awarded, meaning that we have all the authorizations, the contracts have been awarded, and we have the green light from the CRE. We just need to get going and build it.

In pipeline, so on the right, there's 65 MW for which we've secured the land and the building permits. On that basis, we can therefore put in a tender to secure contracts and implement these production capacities. Advanced development accounting for 1.1 GW, that basically covers grounds that have or lands that have been signed. We're just missing basically the building permit. The early stage, well, you've basically a gentleman's agreement with the owner of the plot or the land, a plot that is near enough the network. What we need to do there is do the technical work and secure the authorizations and licenses before we can move on to production. As concerns the 57 MW awarded, I'm sure you've read the papers.

You can expect our subsidiary to have been heavily involved in this. There's basically an issue now between the contracts that have been signed and will lead to construction, and the upcoming inflationary phase with high inflation. We are in talks with the government to get them to offset these additional costs that would challenge the forecasts. Things are going ahead fairly smoothly. It's quite obvious, isn't it, that we cannot come to final investment decisions if the economic model is knocked off kilter because of the significant increases in construction costs over the last few months. What do we intend to do? Well, we want to have high growth.

From the very beginning, we said that we were aiming for 40% growth on capacity over the next few years. We consolidated on April 1, and we should get 20 percentage points for this year, we hope, and we expect to see that increase over the next few years too. Now, Photosol is all about agrivoltaic, so using farmland and as a land for PV. Now IRR is aimed quite high, obviously at 7%-9%. Cost of capital is actually generally lower in this business than in others because you basically have contracts running over 20 years. Before the ECB hiked the interest rates recently, you could basically finance it at 2% interest. We will get growth and secure growth in France.

We'll be looking at other domestic markets in Europe that are close to photovoltaic. We'll be looking at add-ons with hydrogen and stuff like that. We'll also be branching out into the corporate market. EDF is not the only one to buy green electricity. Other large corporations wish to do so and have reliable long-term expectations. Capital allocation.

22, 25 is four years. That includes 2022. Distribution support and services on the left, driving cash flow up till now. I'm saying that because Rubis Terminal is in a JV, so it's not consolidated 100%, it's consolidated at equity method. Support and services, we can expect cash flow from operation above EUR 1.5 billion. CapEx over the maintenance period can be assessed at EUR 500 million. Expansion CapEx a bit less at the order of EUR 300 million for a free cash flow of EUR 900 million. Which means that after maintenance CapEx and before expansion, we have 100% of the cash conversion.

In other words, we're fully covering, if we take the benchmark at EUR 300 million for a net income, which was a result in the past that can serve as a benchmark. We're generating free cash flow that covers the full net income over the period, which allows us to consider external investments on the one hand, and continue our dividend policy that is historically very proactive with a payout ratio of the order of 60%, a dividend that has always risen historically, regularly year after year. Photosol, major investments are planned at the order of EUR 700 million a period, but they'll be self-financed by Photosol and will not be deducted, excluding M&A, the generation of free cash flow that I've just mentioned.

Lastly, final point that I wanted to mention is that at the balance sheet, all these transactions haven't in any way undermined the solidity of our balance sheet. You see on the right the multiples of net debt to EBITDA. That was 0.9 in 2021, which pro forma with the acquisition of Photosol could rise to 2.5 and then 2025, 3x the EBITDA. You need to take account of the following fact is the debt on companies that house each of the PV installations is housed in the company, and the debt is non-recourse. When you take the corporate debt aside of that non-recourse debt of the subsidiaries, we have a ratio projected of 1.5 in pro forma 2021 and 1x in 2022.

The strength of net debt to EBITDA for Photosol is in line with what we've always wanted for the group, and that for many years now. Let me just add one further point, which is that, of course, we have as a target to look at M&A, and we still have a strike force of the order of EUR 200-300 million after those acquisitions. Earlier, as we mentioned, profitability targets for Photosol on the historical markets are double digit for the simple reason we can obtain those and the cost of capital for PV or photovoltaic is a high cost of capital. Let's look at the other businesses.

I'm gonna hand over to Bruno Krief first of all. Thank you.

Bruno Krief
CFO, Rubis

Ladies, gentlemen, good evening. We're going to continue now with the presentation of the major subsidiary, Rubis Énergie. Concerns both distribution, retail, and the downstream, and support and services with refining, storage, and shipping. I wanted. because of the macro and geopolitical events, just wanted to reassure you as to the availability and the supply of the group in terms of petroleum products, 'cause we are buying about 5-6 million cubic meters of petroleum products.

The map shown here indicates that there's absolutely no interaction with Eastern Europe, be it Russia or Ukraine regarding those supplies, be it for crude from the North Sea or bitumen that is sourced in the Mediterranean, between Spain and Turkey, with Greece and Italy going straight to our facilities located in Togo, Lomé, that we ship in our own vessels. As to LPG in Europe, it's sourced largely locally, local North Sea supplies, and it's also possible that we receive cargos from the U.S. to a major facility, CLC, where we're a shareholder in Portugal. Similarly, in Africa, LPG, certain local refineries in South Africa. U.S. supply to our major Jorf Lasfar facility in Morocco.

Africa, fuel coming either from Asia, Indian Ocean, or the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and the Caribbean area is supplied by the American continent close by, notably the East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and certain segments, certain products in Trinidad. That's really just to remind you of our immunity 'cause these current events, of course, that doesn't prevent us from suffering the price increases 'cause the price is international. I'd just like to recall the incredible diversification as a group, the fragmentation as a business by segment, by geography, that you'll find on this chart. The gross margin split across the five segments, LPG, fuels, lubricants, aviation, operating income, Africa, Caribbean, Europe. Africa currently representing 45% and other business risks to which we're exposed.

Forex, currencies in which we operate. Well, we repatriate profits. The euro plus the dollar account for 80% of the Forex of the group. The rest, 20%, split across the countries where we're present, from Morocco to Nigeria, Kenya, Jamaica, but 80% is made up of strong currencies, which also means that as regards the rise of the dollar recently versus the euro, well, we're paying our suppliers more expensively because everything's in dollars, but we pass that on to the client. The profits by our units in the Caribbean, well, those profits are boosted when they're converted into euros. That's for the risk environment of Rubis Énergie. Moving on through the risk factors that we've already mentioned, it's a business that's cost-plus.

That is that we pass on the supply price to the end user, be it upwards or downwards. The chart shown on this slide clearly indicates the low volatility of the unit margin as compared to the strong volatility of the underlying, that is the product price. Over the last the half, you see supply prices that have increased by 123%, whereas the unit margin was only up by 6%. In other circumstances, contrary, you had back in 2015 decreases in the supply cost of the barrel of oil of 30% generating a 15% increase in the unit price. Over the long term, you see the stability and resilience of these margins.

Important to stress in this against this backdrop of very sharp price increases, the product that we're marketing remains a basic product feedstock for the consumer or for the industry. When we take statistics over a very long period in East Africa, we're very present. You see that the price volatility has little impact on the consumption trend. That's very stable. That's in fact up 7% over that very long period. The only decrease that you see here in terms of consumption was during the period 2021 with COVID mobility restrictions that led to this reduction in consumption levels. Furthermore, this is, I think, the slide that we've reached just to return to developments over the half.

In terms of volume and margin, you have volumes that are up 7%, a unit margin up 6%, which overall is 6 + 7, 13% of gross margin, EUR 100 million, in addition that is impacted directly on the EBIT and EBITDA. That represents the performance of aggregates, EBIT and EBITDA over the half and in a political and economic context that you will have seen that was rather challenging. What we see on the volume front, what you need to note is the normalization gradually in the wake of COVID after four-five quarters improvements, but improvements returning to the normal level will occur more softly. You'll see that in the first half, volumes were up 9%, whereas they're only reaching 4% in Q2.

That's the normalization, and we're expecting continued normalization into the second half. Unit margins. This chart shows you that there's low volatility both by region and over a three-year period. It's interesting to note that the performance of 2022 is consistently higher than the two previous years in terms of the level of unit margin. It's true, except for the Caribbean, which in 2020 benefited from significant results from Haiti, which were declined sharply over the period. Let's continue into the geographic footprint here. In summary, Africa, a continent and markets that are growing, Caribbean niche markets, as you know, in the islands, and Europe positioned essentially in LPG, a mature product in mature markets generating significant cash flow.

This cash flow is used and recycled within the group to fund expansion in the Caribbean or even more so in Africa. That's how the cash flows operate within the group. A word about the level of recurring operating income EBIT, EUR 104 million, up 26% over the period. You see Africa, Caribbean, Europe, all our markets, all our geographies are up, posting growth both in terms of 20.

2021 and 2019 except for Haiti. Caribbean, the Caribbean because of the specific situation of Haiti. Africa, the highlight was really on the half was a sharp increase in results, +30%. Madagascar was slowed. The oil and petroleum prices were capped by the government. That's been the case for 18 months so far, and largely offset by excellent performance in East Africa with an increased contribution of 80%. We're on track with our plan in terms of cash generation in that area. Support & services, which is our upstream within Rubis Énergie.

This is a division that is strongly profitable that once again, over the half saw its earnings grow 22%, the major contributor being the Caribbean market share because of our niche position in all these islands, in this archipelago with our ability to supply the products as third parties. It's EUR 33 million EBIT achieved over the half. It's the major. The largest contributor. Ditto for bitumen. We're very present in West Africa, and we are engaged in trading activities to other continents such as America, where we send cargoes to supply Canada and the U.S. when those two areas are short of bitumen. So very good climate for Rubis in that sector. Renewables. We've discussed renewables at length already, mentioning Photosol and Rubis Énergie. We've discussed already this, well, consolidation.

First consolidation over the quarter with EUR 7 million in EBIT. Obviously, it doesn't really mean much because it's only one quarter, and Photosol is really picking up. What you really need to bear in mind is our target of EUR 25 million EBIT over the whole year. By 2027, 2028, we expect something already a three-digit figure, somewhere between EUR 100 million-EUR 120 million. This would, of course, stem from the building of what is or the construction of what is in the built pipeline and its further growth. What we've also noticed is the success levels or the awards by the CRE following tenders. We're talking here about an additional 25 MW. Compare that to the 250 MW that have been awarded.

For sizable sites, basically, we account for or have a 10% market share, so sizable share there, yeah. Photosol is doing all it can to support the growth of the pipeline, supporting development teams and increasing them by a quarter, precisely to handle and manage this, the growth. We're also looking at plants with the corporate PPA sector, not just the supported sector under CRE. We'd be having commercial contracts, and this is a business that is picking up and will be significant over the next few years. We're getting ready for that to make sure that we have a decent position when this all happens. By the end of 2022, we should have reached 440 installed megawatts. Significant additions there.

Our joint venture, Rubis Terminal, it comes third in this list, but it is significant in the group. We're talking about EUR 120 million contribution to EBIT. That is a 4% increase on the previous year, EBITDA that is. Q1 was good, Q2 was even better. Biofuels storage demand has gone up in France, in Spain. Chemicals is also experiencing significant increase. The usage levels is somewhere around 100%. Almost 100% in Northern Europe. Everything we've built, we're already getting requests and demands to use them.

As concerns the fertilizers or vegetable oils segment, well, the situation on the market because of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led companies to make purchases. To be on the safe side as a precautionary measure. Sales are fairly stable, excluding biofuels. The significant increase in oil prices has led, in fact, to a reduction of the number of trades that we have been able to secure in our small trading business. The free cash flow at Rubis Terminal is somewhere around EUR 50 million, and after financial expenses, taxes, and maintenance costs. We've almost also, on that note, where they have H2, almost finished refinancing what was done two years ago in April 2020.

It was a high yield instrument over five years with a 5x factor. We managed to increase the maturity to 7% and increase leverage to 6x, which really does establish Rubis Terminal in the infrastructure business. Despite the significant interest rate increase since the beginning of the year, we still enjoy interest rates lower than what we had on the previous paper that was high yield. It's cheaper over longer maturity with a higher leverage, so quite significant. This will lead, of course, to additional dividends for shareholders. I mean, we've already commented the results, but we could maybe review them briefly. Here you have it from EBITDA to adjusted net income, and Jack has already spoken about this.

Maybe we need to look at the joint ventures, going from EUR 1.2 million in 2021 to jumping up to almost EUR 12 million in this half year. This is in no small part due to the additional income from the sale of the Turkish business, but recurring is somewhere around EUR 2.5 million. Net financial charges increased from EUR 18 million to EUR 33 million. This is in part due to the disbursements related to the Photosol acquisition and the financial expenses related to the debt we have bought when we acquired the company. Also latent Forex losses under Rubis Énergie. This is due to the increase in the dollar rate and the scarcity of actual dollars in some markets, so Nigeria or Kenya, for instance. Markets where we operate.

This is the sort of thing that explains the Forex losses up by something like EUR 10 million compared to last year. Net income, adjusted net income, EUR 169. Net income group share EUR 170 million. This clearly shows that any positive exceptionals are offset by negative exceptionals, and that basically our results are of high quality. Now, if you move on to cash flow. 7% increase in our ability to finance ourselves. You remember that we showed you previously a graph about procurement and its impact on the working capital. I think all in all, we have a very robust balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA at 2.6x .

Once you take into account the debt at Photosol and the guarantees there, the corporate net debt is at 2.1x . The change in working capital over time is in no small part related to the variations in oil prices. The significant drop in 2014, 2015 had led not so much to a need in additional working capital, but in fact increasing working capital to the tune of EUR 150 million. Over 2021, 2022, you see that there's been an increase in oil prices, which has led to a disbursement of cash and therefore an increase in the working capital requirement. Over the long run, as you can see over a decade or so, we're basically at naught.

Finally, the change in net debt is what we have here. You have the bridge from January first to June the thirtieth. You have the significant impact of the Photosol acquisition, EUR 341 million. Dividend paid out in cash, all of it in cash, EUR 191 million. EUR 174 million relating to the change in working capital. I'd also say that the debt at EUR 1.4 billion for the group is made up of very long-term debt from Photosol over a 20-year maturity with variable at LIBOR plus one point or 1.5%. Of course, we bought out or secured swap that had enabled us to hedge against interest rate hikes.

As for the rest of the business, on average, the interest rate or the debt runs over 3.5 years. On the whole, we hedge our debt. Two-thirds, roughly, of it is at fixed rates. Lastly, we also have available RCF, available for acquisitions that is, to the tune of EUR 400 million, and we could draw on those at any time to cover needs related to any acquisitions. Well, that's it. I think that's all I wanted to discuss with you. Thank you. I'll give the floor to Clarisse.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik
Managing Partner, Rubis

Well, good evening to you all. Just from my side, I'd just like to follow up with an update on our initiatives on the CSR front and our governance, more specifically our supervisory board. On this slide, just to remind you that our first CSR roadmap over the period 2022 through 2025 was published precisely a year ago. It concerns our main division, Rubis Énergie, around the three major sustainable development prongs, such as all companies with CSR, environment, climate, social well-being, societal, and anti-corruption drive. Photosol, the closing occurred in April. Our teams are currently studying the available data and CSR concerning the production of solar power to identify the priority initiatives and chart a roadmap available during 2023. Our current roadmap, I'd just like to return to the three highlights of our roadmap.

Decarbonization of our activities, the role of women in governing bodies and ethics. On decarbonization of our business, that's a key focus area for us today. As Jacques stated, back in March of this year, we announced a target of - 30% on scopes 1 and 2 of our carbon footprint at constant scope by 2030. We're confirming that target. To achieve that target, we've called in decarbonization experts to accompany Rubis subsidiaries in the roadmap, priority initiatives, the reduction curve between 2020 and 2030 and the associated CapEx. The main levers for decarbonization that we've identified will concern energy efficiency plans on our industrial facilities.

Essentially, SARA replacement of a few vessels and the use of biofuels, LPG or even LPG for certain ships, solar power on our service stations for retail and decarbonizing our own transport fleet. The budgetary estimate of this action represents about 8% of CapEx for Rubis Énergie between 2020 and 2030 per year. The place of women in management committees, our target is 30% on average by 2025. We've reached 27% of Rubis Énergie and subsidiary 50% in group management. Identical targets and even higher will be set at Photosol and possibly increased in our subsidiaries. Societal ethics, we plan to train 100% of our people by 2023. We've put in place an e-learning module. At the end of 2021, we'd reached 76% of our people trained.

We'll soon reach 100%. All subsidiaries on the anti-corruption driver are concerned by that program. An update on our ambition, our agenda for H2 and 2023. As regards our climate initiatives, we have three priority areas. Reduction of scope 3. Scope 3 concerns externalized transport infrastructure, fixed assets, the purchase of goods and services, products sold. Scope 3B, we're currently working on the carbon intensity of products sold. We hope to be able to set a target on a restricted scope by 2023. We're also working on an internal price of carbon, allow the group to factor the climate challenges in its strategy. We've launched a study to assess biodiversity impacts of our activities. 100% of our drivers will be trained in defensive driving in high-risk countries by next year.

We're putting in place a tool to better detect and talent pool to secure the growth of talent over the long term. On the society front will be human rights risk mapping, development of a sustainable procurement approach. Our initiatives 2022 and 2023, a follow-up on 2021 with an update at the annual results. Governance and our supervisory board. Perhaps interesting to indicate that we've renewed our supervisory board for two years now by appointing four new independent members, one in 2021, three this year, to enrich the work as a board with specific skills in CSR, in safety, human resources and industry. It's a balanced board, both in terms of gender equality and independence to ensure good board diversity. I would add that since 2021 we've added a board meeting that is specifically devoted to governance and CSR matters. Thank you.

Jacques Riou
Managing Partner, Rubis

Merci, Clarisse.

Thank you for that, Clarisse. Final intervention. I won't go back on the results of H1 2022 and full year. We're expecting strong growth in earnings. We've really notched up a very good earnings in H1. Growth drivers mid- and long-term that is set out in the slide shown. I would just add four points. Fundamentally, if I repeat the first point about Rubis Énergie, what is driving the constant and sustained growth in our activities for many years in areas with significant population growth on the energy front. The number counts a great deal 'cause energy is developed or not. People go to work, use transportation, and so those are basic needs.

These people, number of populations growing with spending power, that's a significant driver for our activities. We're addressing basic needs. Traveling to work, heating, cooking. These are basic needs with very little price elasticity. I'm not saying there's zero elasticity, but very price sensitive. Then we have a range of geographies and diversity of markets and market structure, ensuring great resilience, whatever the external shocks that might affect us. These markets, at the end of the day, also have a key characteristic, which is the price transmission, the pricing of international products passed right through to the end user.

It really is a constant that we've seen from day one, a constant of these markets on the conventional fuels that we all know. In terms of renewable energy, one of the fundamentals of this business. We're in France, it's a French European business. Just look at the ambitions, both French and European in this area. All it would take was that a mere part of the targets to be reached so as to generate for operators very significant growth. I'd add that behind the production of green power, there are all the issues revolving around hydrogen markets. These are issues really in their infancy. No one is capable of saying what's gonna happen in the next ten years.

When you're in the production of green power, you're really on the cusp of what's going to be developed in terms of hydrogen. will of course drive the growth in renewables. As we've already said, large corporates who are looking for long-term energy green energy contracts is opening up, which will be added to the state-based regulated markets who are counting on renewable share reaching 25% for the group. Terminals and storage is a business that is similarly very robust because, put simply, when the economy is doing well, volumes are up, we need storage. when things are not going quite so well, you have disruptions in the supply chains, you have precautionary storage by clients, and recourse to storage is indispensable.

The commercial activities currently with oil problems on oil supplies in Europe is strongly driving the activity of that division. You have other factors. When prices rise, the competitiveness of the chemical industry in Europe is weak. Very soon you have the import of chemicals from the U.S. or the Middle East, which is also a driver for our terminal activities in Europe, because we are located in industrial ports that can receive these major import flows over the long term. It's a business that is growing strongly, even in terms of economic downturn that is supported by deep underlying long-term drivers that we've always seen.

By way of a conclusion, we renew our extraordinary confidence in the strength and growth of the group, and the numbers have demonstrated that, so far, thus far. Thanks for your attention. Be happy to take your questions. Yes. Any questions? Yes, sir. Have we a microphone for the gentleman?

Speaker 4

Good evening, and thank you for this presentation. I have four questions. The first three focus on retail to try and understand why it outperforms exceeding expectations. In that division, my first question is the following: Could you tell us what the main change in the mix are as compared to 2021? I think on page 10 your illustration actually covers 2021 and not 2022. Second question: Are there any governments that are subsidizing the price hikes in fuels? For instance, we've seen coverage on the LPG cooking gas subsidy in Kenya. Thirdly, on M&A, are there any other opportunities or wishes that might appear with the deterioration of the financial situation of some small operators?

Jacques Riou
Managing Partner, Rubis

I'm thinking here maybe of service stations and petrol pumps in Kenya.

Yes. Okay, I see what you mean.

Speaker 4

Last question. You mentioned your outlook for that division, but could you maybe say a little more as to what we might expect in H2? Can we expect something similar to what we've seen in H1? Last question on Photosol: Can you tell us more about what the government is doing to offset inflation on solar panels, as you mentioned?

Jacques Riou
Managing Partner, Rubis

Product mix. To address your first question on retail and distribution. The illustration

Actually, it covers indeed the 2021 as a full year. Why so? Well, because in some places, in some segments, there may be seasonal variations. If we had only used the numbers for the half year, it wouldn't give you a honest representation of what happens over the whole year. Now, numbers and sales are fairly stable. Admittedly, there's a significant increase in airline-related sales, which were much lower last year. Also a 40% or so increase for fuels in East Africa. Those are the main factors, I suppose. We will review the product mix at the end of the full year. I'm sure you know, for instance, the bitumen, for instance, is mainly sold between what? January and June, and then nothing happens during July, August and September.

That is to say, during the rainy season, and therefore it's difficult to use bitumen to pave roads. It picks up at the end, the fourth quarter. In Europe, well, as you know, winter happens during Q1, so seasonal factors. Second, your second question referred to subsidies. Admittedly, some countries, for instance, Nigeria, does subsidize, even though we're not active on the fuels market in Nigeria. In Kenya, the steep increase in prices over the last 12 months has led to the government capping prices. To offset that, there is a subsidy to compensate retailers for their losses. The subsidy is meant to cover the whole of the expense or loss of income. It's not that simple. Of course, there are.

It takes some time to get the payment from the government. It was meant to be the following week, and then it took 2 weeks, 3, 4, 6 weeks, 2 months. Those are the sort of issues we have to handle. Price formation is and remains what it is, but there is a capping of prices and a simultaneous compensation. Can I maybe say something about M&A? M&A is and remains our goal. It's true that we didn't do any M&A over the last few years, bar a Photosol worth EUR 800 million. Now, it's true that there was no M&A in the historic business. Now, when we experienced the first few signs of COVID, we expected acquisition opportunities to pop up.

That wasn't the case, maybe because the cost of money was very low and there was much cash sloshing about, and managers therefore didn't want or feel the need to sell businesses. We are seeing now more opportunities. I can't say more than that, but we are scanning the horizon and trying to make sure that we can add to our business across the board, whether it be retail and support services or storage, as in Spain. This will also be true of PV. But there, our priority is mainly internal growth, organic growth. Now, the difficulties of some operators in Africa has indeed been useful in Kenya or Nigeria, where some of our competition had lack of inventory, but it did not trigger any M&A. So much for what I could say for the moment.

Would you take the floor on Rubis Énergie, H2? Well, for H2, what we can say about Rubis Énergie is that we have experienced a very good performance over H1. I think we can hope that over H2, things will come back to normal, for instance, on volume with the tail end of the COVID impact. We were somewhere around 80% on aviation fuel at the end of the half year, and we expect to get to 90%. I think we can expect that at the end of H2. This will obviously have an impact on growth that may be toned down somewhat. However, we are and remain confident over the whole year.

What with 20% in H1, I think a significant part of that should be felt all through the end of the year. Can I maybe address the question on government mechanisms to offset inflation? The CRE, the French Energy Regulatory Commission, authorized on the first of September, electricity producers to sell spot prices, market prices over 18 months. For Photosol, that should be 110 megawatts. Not all operational, but that should come into operation over a period running to April 2023, roughly. You also, I'm sure, heard that the European Commission aims at capping the price at EUR 200 a megawatt. We can't say much more.

For the moment, the spot price is EUR 600 per megawatt, compared to EUR 60 per megawatt, the regulated price by the CRE. Well, as Clarisse said, we don't quite know what the mechanism will be, but the government in France, at least, is fairly reactive, very reactive indeed, and trying to address this issue. The issue is the difference in prices set at the time we signed the contract with CRE and the time the plant comes online. We, as any other operators in the market, are having to tackle inflation on the price of input for solar energy farms. This is a one-off issue, I'm sure.

I think we can expect that this will be handled and settled, but it is calling into question the economics of a project and having a 25-year project that would start its business on an uneven footing is surely something that everyone can understand is no good. You have another question? Question off mic, unfortunately. Can you maybe give us an idea of the magnitude, either volumes or margins, of the products sold under retail and marketing that are subsidized? Answer. This is Africa. We're talking about Kenya and Madagascar. Something like 20% of the volumes in Africa. In fact, we're not talking about the whole range of products, but just those that are targeted at the consumers, so basically petrol stations.

In these countries, we don't only do retail, we are also active on the B2B or aviation fuel sectors that are not subsidized. Can I add also that on the whole, we tend to shy away from subsidized markets. These are markets that have become subsidized because governments felt they there might be a violent reaction from the public, and that doesn't only happen in those countries. Again, this is temporary. Apart from these occurrences, we avoid generally subsidized markets because we always have a bit of a problem getting the subsidies paid to us. Regulated markets are markets we like that are interesting for us. Non-regulated markets are also interesting. Most countries, there is both regulated and unregulated or non-regulated but business.

Non-regulated would be aviation and things like that. Operators always find it more tricky to handle subsidized business. I think there are no further questions. Thank you so very much for your kind attention. I do hope that you will join us again at the next presentation. Thank you.

Powered by