Welcome to the Groupe SEB 2026 first half results presentation. Today's conference will be hosted by Stanislas de Gramont, Chief Executive Officer, and Olivier Casanova, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be on listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key on their telephone keypad. I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to this first half results presentation. I will be doing this presentation together with Olivier Casanova. Stanislas de Gramont speaking. Starting with the first half year highlights. I think there are three main highlights. The first one is half one has seen a recovery of our operating results.
We see the first results of the Rebound plan during this semester, and we confirm at the end of this semester our full year outlook. For a bit more into details, we have seen in this first half a deteriorated economic and geopolitical environment with mixed consumption prospects. We have had a slight organic sales growth in the first half. Our fine recovery, I mentioned it, notably driven by internal levers, the famous self-help improvement for the profit.
We announced and deployed our Rebound plan, the rollout is on track with our objectives, and we already see first financial results in the first half. We confirm our outlook for 2026 with a full year growth of our offer, a return to more normative free cash flow generation, contributing the half one trend. We also, to conclude those highlights, have further recognition of the group's ESG commitments with improved EcoVadis rating, reaching Platinum rating.
That is the top 1% and CDP ratings on water and carbon emissions. Going to the key figures. First half lands at sales of EUR 3.743 billion, a growth of 1.7% like-for-like versus 2025 and flat versus last year in reported. That generated an operating result from activity of EUR 172 million, which is 44% growth on a yet low base for 2025.
The second quarter was essentially similar, with sales growing 0.6% like-for-like, with 0.9% reported and ORfA improving to advancing to EUR 100 million, up 45.3% versus 2025. Last, on the first half, we generated a positive free cash flow of EUR 53 million, when last year first half was consuming cash for - EUR 213 million. I hand it over to Olivier to give the details of these sales and financial performance. Olivier?
Thank you, Stanislas. So starting with H1 sales bridge, as you can see, as we said, our H1 sales at EUR 3,743,000,000 is essentially in line on a reported basis with last year, which means that the organic growth effect of 1.7% is essentially offset by the negative currency effects. Now let me start with the currency effect first.
On the face of it looks a similar amount to last year, which was -EUR 64 million, but the composition actually is quite different. Last year, we had a strong depreciation from emerging market currencies, and a modest negative impact from US dollar and CNY. This year it's a reverse effect. We have, in fact, a modest depreciation of emerging market currencies and a much more significant impact from the depreciation of CNY and US dollar. Which leads me to the organic growth.
I will comment of C further in the rest of the presentation, but the lower depreciation of currencies in emerging market is also translating into a lower price increase impact, and this is costing us approximately 1 percentage point in organic growth, leading to a +1 .7%. Commenting further on Q2, you can see this effect of currency is even more pronounced, is positive, in fact, in Q2. So on the next page, you can see what I was referring to.
We have, in fact, a positive contribution from a strengthening of the Colombian peso, the Mexican peso, the ruble, even a small negative impact in Argentine peso. On the other hand, we have a strong negative impact from the depreciation of the CNY and the depreciation of the US dollar in addition to the Turkish lira. So let's look at sales by activity now.
The professional activity generated EUR 476 million, down 2.8% on a like-for-like basis, whilst the consumer business generated EUR 3,268,000,000, up 2.3%. So let's start with the professional sales. Generally speaking, as you can see, we have a negative - 2.8% on a like-for-like basis. This is made of a solid core business but a low contribution from large deals.
We are operating in a, as we know, uncertain geopolitical context, as Stanislas referred to it in his introduction, which translates for the professional market into a persistent wait-and-see attitude from food service clients. This is particularly true in the U.S. and the Middle East. We see, however, a steady core business, including a strong service contribution, which represents, as you know, approximately 35% of sales. On the other hand, a low contribution compared to historic basis from large deals. That being said, we continue to prepare for future growth.
We are ramping up the Shaoxing hub as we explained, and our two new models, Peak and Elevation, which are addressing the segments, the entry level and the semiprofessional segment, are being rolled out into more than 15 countries now.
We see also progress on the expansion of our customer portfolio, in particular with success in ChaPanda, which is a famous tea chain in China, but also Scooter's in the U.S. and a global listing with McDonald's, which is also quite positive for the future.
And finally, on the strategic front, we strengthened our one-stop shop offer with the acquisition of a stake in a small specialist ingredient dispenser in China. So let's turn to consumer now. As you can see, we have organic growth in all regions, 1.6% in EMEA, 8.4% in the Americas, and + 1.1% in Asia. So we'll start with comments on EMEA with Western Europe.
We have an organic growth of 2% in H1. Generally speaking, we have a positive sell trend, but we have to acknowledge an increased caution amongst retailers in Q2, which is translating, in some cases, to a lower inventory policy. We have, however, a good product momentum, in particular driven by floor washers, garment steamers, cookware with the launch of FusionCore and full auto coffee machine with the success of Coffee Crush.
We have in particular, and it's notable, a good performance in France with market share gains across the board. A favorable impact, of course, of loyalty program, particularly in Q1. In Germany, which remains, let's say, a difficult market, in general, a complex environment, the priority is being given to margin improvement, which is progressing to the detriment of sales growth.
In other EMEA countries, we see, as you can see, stability in H1 despite the disruptions in the Middle East. Turkey and Egypt are accelerating, driven by linen care, cooking, and e-commerce. Eastern Europe presents a heterogeneous picture, with, in some cases, a high comparison base, especially in Poland, for example.
We are seeing promising launches of our latest innovations. In particular, of course, the success of Coffee Crush as well, but also interestingly on ice cream machines with the success of Dolce and Freeze, and also on washers. As I mentioned, finally, we are seeing, of course, a sales decline in the Middle East. It's not surprising. It represents a small percentage of the group sales, but it's about 10% of the sales in other EMEA countries.
Turning to the Americas, starting with North America, we see a 9.5% growth in H1 and an acceleration in Q2 at + 15%. Of course, it's off a low base last year, in particular in the U.S. Last year in North America, our sales decreased by 12%. That being said, we had a, let's say, volatile market, not very favorable in Q1, but better oriented in Q2.
More generally, we are registering market share gains in cookware, which is our main, as you know, activity, and also in linen care. In Mexico, we have a positive sell-out, particularly online, in a market which remains quite competitive. Turning to South America, we grew 6.1% in H1, which is, let's say, driven by Colombia with a strong momentum across our product range. We continue to expand our categories with coffee, floor care, or blenders.
Interestingly, we returned to growth in fan sales in Q2, which is different from the situation in Brazil. In Brazil, we have a good online performance, but generally, we are penalized by the difficulties of the physical retail, and we have to say that the weather, contrary to Colombia, was unfavorable to fan sales in Brazil. If we believe the weather forecast, it will change in H2 with the return of El Niño.
Consumer in Asia, starting with China. We had overall a slight growth in H1 with + 1.3% and a more difficult context in Q2. Generally speaking, Supor continues to grow in cookware, kitchenware, and linen care. However, we see increased promotional intensity in the market in Q2.
We are, as we've indicated before, focusing primarily on, let's say, managing the balance between chasing sales growth and protecting profitability. We are, however, registering market share gains overall in H1. One specific situation, which is large kitchen appliances. It's not an activity that we have elsewhere in the group, but it's an activity that we have in China.
It's a modest activity at less than 10% of sales. It did benefit last year from the incentives that were introduced by the government, the removal of these incentives this half is impacting significantly this modest activity. Turning to other Asian countries, we had a stable situation in H1 with a strong performance in online and offline across the region.
Growth in key categories in China, sorry, in Japan, stable sales in Southeast Asia, a more difficult situation in South Korea with a market decline marked in particular by difficulties in physical retail. Let's turn now to results and cash flow generation.
Starting with ORfA, as Stanislas indicated, our ORfA increased from a low base last year to EUR 172 million in the first half, generating operating margin of 4.6% up 140 basis points. How do we explain this evolution? We have the bridge on the next page. Starting with the combination of volumes, price mix, cost of sales, in fact, also currency. We are managing the balance of these different elements, in total, delivering a net positive.
Of course, the benefit that we have on the currency is especially on the short currencies, which we are using to purchase finished goods and raw material and components. It is, to some extent, also impacting the price mix dynamics.
We have also, as I mentioned earlier, a lower depreciation from emerging market currencies, which is in turn translating into a lower price increase effect in emerging markets. This is costing us approximately EUR 30 million in the price mix bucket. Finally, we have, on the cost of sales, yes, a positive impact from the reimbursement of U.S. tariffs to the tune of about EUR 15 million, this is merely offsetting, in fact, the increased tariff in H1 versus last year.
As you know, the tariffs, in particular, the reciprocal tariff, were introduced at the beginning of Q2, therefore, if we compare to last year, we have, let's say, a negative effect in terms of tariff, which is offset by the reimbursement.
Net-net, the positive impact in cost of sales translates or is the reflection of a positive effect on our purchasing of raw material component and finished goods, which is contributing to the business. Finally, we have a decrease, as you can see, in structure cost by about EUR 25 million, which shows, in particular, the first results from the Rebound plan. Now if we move below ORfA, you can see in particular that the big item is the line other operating income and expenses, which was -EUR 24 million last year and is now -EUR 185 million.
Of course, this reflects principally the provisions for social costs related to the Rebound plan in France and Germany. This will be detailed further by Stanislas in the second part, we have now reached the stage where we can make a good estimate of those costs. At this stage, of course, it is still an estimate. Secondly, you can see the income tax line is, let's say, made of two different elements.
We have to distinguish, let's say, the normal recurring business, which I will call excluding Rebound effect, where in fact we have a higher tax rate than usual. Normally, we are around 25%. This year, we have a non-favorable country mix, which is increasing this rate from 25% to 30%. We have the negative impact from Rebound, which is creating a significant, as I mentioned, charge.
At this stage, in order to take a prudent position, we have limited the recognition of deferred tax asset at this stage, and this is why we are not benefiting to the full extent from the expected tax shield. Finally, this translates into profit attributable to our shareholders of -EUR 124 million. We have stated below, let's say, the profit excluding the Rebound plan effect, which would be +EUR 41 million, which compares to +EUR 1 million last year.
Moving to balance sheet and cash flow. Starting with the working capital requirement. As you can see, of course, in H1, we have, let's say, a traditional seasonality in our business, which means that H1 June working capital is traditionally higher than December. That being said, this year, as you can see, we are reducing working capital to EUR 1,466 million compared to EUR 1,540 million last year.
The ratio is moving from 18.6% last year to 17.9% this year. This is first and foremost, as a result of lower inventory compared to last year, on a reported basis, down EUR 115 million. There is in there, a negative currency effect. On a like-for-like basis, it's down EUR 160 million. Of course, the inventory level is not yet at, let's say, our optimum level, in particular, because we continue, as you know, to be impacted by the closure of the Suez Canal and the longer transportation time length.
Moving to free cash flow generation, of course, the adjusted EBITDA is up by EUR 53 million, in a similar way to the increase in ORfA. We have the positive effect of the optimization of working capital. On the CapEx side, we are much lower than last year. H1 last year was -EUR 160 million.
Of course, you remember that last year we had substantial investment in our Shaoxing hub and also the tail end of the Til-Châtel investment, which is our cookware warehouse for Western Europe. Of course, we have the effect from tax and financial debt, and all that translates into a positive free cash flow of EUR 53 million, which compares to -EUR 213 million last year. We're better than last year by EUR 266 million. On a rolling 12 months basis, this translates into a free cash flow generation of EUR 390 million. Finally, to conclude this section, let's look at the change in net debt.
If we take into account the EUR 160 million of dividend to the SEB shareholders and the EUR 43 million dividend to the Supor minority shareholders, the currency effect and modest acquisitions, which is mostly in a few contributions, SEB Alliance and the modest acquisition of stake in our beverage dispenser in China, we end up with EUR 2.516 billion, which is down EUR 152 million compared to last year. Now I hand over back to Stanislas.
Thank you very much, Olivier. This was the summary of the first half sales and financial results. I'll now navigate you through what happened in the Rebound plan, starting with the start, which is the rollout is there, it's been deployed and is on track with our objectives. We've set ourselves an ambition for Rebound to return to our profitable growth trajectory with three main goals, reinventing our growth model, restoring our profitability, and strengthening our stakeholders' engagement using group wide levers on AI, on data, and on simplification.
Now let me take you through these three elements. Starting with the reinvention of our growth model, which is a key plan. We've set three big priorities. The first one is our ability to roll out our successes, the ability to reinvent categories, and the ability to reimagine or to create evolving activation strategies, putting social networks first.
I'll give you some illustrations of that. Starting with the deployment of our successes, the X-Clean vacuum cleaner washers were launched late Q4 2024, reaching 70 countries with five models in June 2026. We'll expand to nine models in the end of the year in the same 70 countries.
In the same period, we launched Clean-It with one model that is now with three models in 20 countries, reaching five models, 20 countries at the end of the year. We launched Air Ultima, another potential big success for the group, in late 2024, early 2025, reaching 25 countries in June this year, with three models in 30 countries at the end of this year, and same applies for FusionCore in the course of the last 15 months.
What this says is that we have an ability to develop good selling products, good innovations, and we are now expanding and strengthening our muscle in the ability to deploy them fast and expanding them faster. We're also working hard on reinventing our categories. Cookeo is a 15-year-old saga in France.
EPC is a very substantial market in France and in the world, we've totally reinvented Cookeo in the back end of 2024 with a new all-in-one appliance combining a multi-cooker and an air fryer. We move from double-digit negative to double-digit positive, and this trend keeps pursuing in the first full year of launch of Cookeo Infinity. We're also bringing a breakthrough innovation on full auto coffee machine. We are launching Coffee Crush. Coffee Crush is a 50% more compact coffee machine compared to a conventional full auto.
What it does beyond size is it's recruiting a whole new generation of consumers to this coffee machine category, reaching double-digit market share in the first few weeks of sales in the countries it is being launched in. Beyond the product in Coffee Crush, we've also reinvented our activation strategy with a social-first approach.
We started two months before the launch event with embarking, onboarding, what we call the Crush Crew, 10 influencers being invited in our premises to discover and test the product. The launch event was in France at the back end of March. We had over 70 influencers covering, in total, over 20 million reach, with 5 million views on the moment of the event. That is being nowadays amplified to reach 50 countries in 2026.
We estimate we'll get 172 million consumers reached potentially, and we'll spend over 60% of our investments in social media. I think this is a great illustration of transformation in action, and this transformation first bears its first great fruits in terms of results on Coffee Crush, and we are systematizing this approach on all the key launches in the back end of 2026. The second key pillar of Rebound is to restore our profitability.
We've been talking about delivering a target of EUR 200 million in recurring annual savings at a run rate by the end of 2027, focusing on three main levers, organizations working on structural costs and industrial efficiencies, indirect purchases, and group-wide transversal levers of simplification of product ranges and working processes. The estimated cost of the plan don't change. They are at 1x to 1.25x , the recurring annual saving.
They will be mainly recognized in P&L at the end of 2025 for EUR 24 million and in the first half of 2026 for EUR 178 million, as explained by Olivier earlier on. The cash outflows on their side will be mostly in 2027. When we look at where we are, we are in line, maybe slightly ahead of the announced timeline. We expect to generate EUR 40 million-EUR 60 million in 2026 and around EUR 200 million between 2027 and 2028.
We'll be at a full run rate of EUR 200 at the end of 2027, maybe not in full EUR 200 in 2027. That would be further specified in the quarters to come. The progress we make on organizations, as I mentioned, we're working on the reduction of structural costs and the industrial efficiency improvement. That is mainly in France and Germany for the social-heavy countries.
We've signed our labor agreements in France and in the most of the German entities involved in this restructuring plan. We expect the departures to start from September this year. On the indirect purchasing, we are working on the pooling and the standardization of our purchasing needs. We've launched over 400 actions that aim at generating 5%-6% saving of the indirect purchasing in scope, and we start to see the first results in the P&L as of this first half of 2026.
Last, we've identified cross-functional levers around simplification of organization and processes, and we've been pooling several functions of the company already. We've also committed ourselves to reducing by 25%-30% our SKUs, our product references, and we've now identified 90% of those reductions, of which 9% are already initiated, and the whole program will be completed by early 2027.
Last, we have a strong focus on data improvement and AI rollout. On this front, we have run, in the first six months of the year, over 140 workshops to really exploit and expand AI as a group-wide efficiency lever. Those workshops have scanned 360 degrees the group in all functions, in BUs, in pros, in consumer, in markets.
We've identified 800+ use cases, and we now have a more and more robust work plan to generate through AI, saving short, mid, and long term, but also ability to contribute much further to the acceleration of our growth drivers, accelerating our top-line levers, accelerating our innovation, accelerating and improving our activation. We've been working at a pretty intensive pace in H1, and we now have a portfolio of value creation opportunities identified across all the group's functions. Right.
This is what we wanted to share with you in terms of the results and the key events of the first half of the year. Now it's time to share with you the outlook for 2026, which is unchanged. Maybe putting a bit of color on this unchanged outlook. Starting with the environment, we have a deteriorating macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. I could add pretty volatile and unstable. We see mixed consumption prospects.
We see increasing inflationary pressures on cost, mainly coming from the Iran conflict. But at the same time, we also see a resilience of our small domestic equipment markets. Backing our performance, as in the first half, we see momentum being built on our renovation pipeline. We are taking some targeted pricing actions in some geographies, and we have a strict COGS and OpEx management with some further Rebound plan impact.
These positives and negatives allow us to confirm our outlook for 2026 of a full year of fact growth, of a return to a more normative free cash flow generation, continuing the very good H1 trend, lowering the financial leverage with the objective of returning to the group standard of around 2 x excluding acquisition by 2027. Right. I think we are done with our presentation. I will now hand over to you to get your questions that we'll be answering with Olivier. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six. The next question comes from Ope Otaniyi from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, gentlemen. Thanks for the presentation, and thanks for taking my question. To start off with organic growth. I know you kind of talked about the outlook. Could you give some visibility into Q3 and maybe bridge the growth you saw in Q1 and in Q2, sorry, between innovation, volume growth, and then just easy comps?
Olivier, do you want to go?
As we've indicated, the environment remains quite volatile and complex. We prefer not to focus on guiding on sales growth. The focus of the year is clearly on profit recovery, as indicated by Stanislas, and on cash flow generation. That's what we'll focus on. Helped, of course, principally by our own actions and our own levers.
In terms of the dynamic, as you've seen from the bridge, we have a strong contribution from volume growth, which is in large part driven by our innovation and the success that we've seen on the various categories that we discussed on Coffee Crush, on the washers, on Aerosteam, et cetera. There is a strong growth also in cookware, which continues to be a quite dynamic category.
Finally, as we said, we have been helped by the good performance on loyalty program. Last year, as we mentioned in Q1, we had a low year in terms of loyalty program. This year, we have a year which is above average. This is clearly contributing also to the volume growth.
Great. Thanks. Maybe just on cost out. Sorry, go ahead.
Go ahead.
Maybe just on cost out, I suppose you have a bit more visibility now. Could you sort of give an update on how much you think would be reinvested? Then just to clarify, would most of the restructuring costs come out in Q2, I suppose, and maybe some more in coming quarters, but the bulk of it in Q2?
Okay, I'll take this one.
Yeah.
As you have commented on the bridge, we have a positive contribution, in particular on the purchasing side in H1. Of course, we were not impacted so much in H1 by the increases linked to the Iran crisis. We will see that more in H2. This is particularly the case on raw material, especially and component raw material impacting aluminum and plastics. We see also some impact on the rise of oil price, which is impacting transport cost and shipping cost.
Of course, some of these costs or the negative impact from some of these cost increase is mitigated by our hedging strategy, especially on aluminum, for example. We expect some negative impact. We are looking to offset some of those impact, starting in H2 by our price optimization. In some cases, it is adjusting the launch price of some products.
Other cases, it is optimizing promotions. Net from the Iran crisis, we see a total impact in H2, around EUR 30 million -. Of course, there are other positives against that in H2. We have a positive impact in H1 on Rebound. We will have further impact because the plan is, of course, contributing more in H2 than H1. We have an upside to the tune of EUR 20 million -EUR 40 million in H2. We will have also some further probably contribution from tariff reimbursement in the second half. More generally also, the more positive environment in North America, especially compared to Q3 last year, which was very depressed.
Yes. FX.
Finally, we have still some positive tailwind from FX in the second half if rates stay where they are today. That is what I can say on the likely cost evolution in H2.
Thank you, Olivier.
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
The next question comes from Natasha Brilliant from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. My first one, just to come back on sales growth. I understand that you don't want to guide. Can you just give us some color on consumer behavior and spending patterns for the first few weeks of Q3, how that compared to Q2, and perhaps how Q2 progressed as well?
My second question is just on your full-year guidance, which you've reiterated. It's obviously quite broad in terms of growth in offer. Given where we are at the halfway point, could you just give us a bit more color? For example, if you look at consensus, it's for an 8% margin. Does that look achievable or does that look too conservative in your view? Just any thoughts on that would be helpful.
My final question is around Professional and just the pipeline of contracts, whether you have any visibility there, whether there's any negotiations ongoing, and whether we might get some news in the second half. Thank you.
Thank you, Natasha. You want a sales profit and Professional guidance.
Yeah, that's all.
What can I say? I can say that we see that the markets are resilient. Consumption in our categories are resilient. We have a rather positive consumer behavior. Yes, we see a deteriorating consumption environment.
We see that our innovations bear some momentum, and we see that we have potential upsides because of the base comparison in North and Latin America. That's what I can say in terms of the inputs. Where I cannot be more precise is, I don't really know what the effect of this Iran war is going to be in the back end of the year. We had this call three weeks ago, I would have probably had a very different speech, and today things are different.
When it comes to the full-year guidance and the consensus, I think Olivier has just shared with your colleague the key elements that will be impacting our cost base and in the year to go evolution. You observe that we don't comment on the consensus. That means that we don't have much problem with the consensus. I will not give you further detail on the guidance, but that's what it is. On the Professional third, I think we have some great leads with great customers.
The listings of major customers like McDonald's are key elements, and the worldwide listing is a very notable achievement. We are disappointed, frustrated, I mean, choose the word. We would expect those contracts to materialize faster than they do today. Certainly it's not a challenge of pipeline or competitiveness of the offer. It is a challenge of conversion of these contracts into actual sales. We're working very hard to convert them fast and faster.
Perfect. That's very clear. Thank you for taking my questions.
Thank you, Natasha. See you tomorrow.
The next question comes from Marie-Line Fort from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. I would like to come back on the slide on page 33. You mentioned EUR 40 million-EUR 60 million saving in term of ORfA for 2026. I suspect that it's one third organization, two third indirect purchase. Shall we do consider that the EUR 200 million is a total and you still have to unlock EUR 140 million, EUR 160 million over the next years?
That's my first question. My second question is to know what part of the EUR 40 million, EUR 60 million has been locked already in the first half. Second question is about your destocking SKUs. You've got ambitious targets on that side. You made some progress. Have you measured the impact on sales at this stage or from retailers? My last question is about retailers-
In which topic, pardon Marie, in-
SKUs.
SKUs, yes, okay.
The S-
Sorry, I'll take this. Okay, go ahead.
Lastly, what is the retailer's policy at this stage? Are they more cautious, less cautious? If you could give us some colors about.
Yes
clients. Thank you.
Yes. I'll take the last two. Olivier, you will bridge the Rebound. SKUs reduction is a complex project. We are talking about over 25,000 SKUs. So reduction of 25%-30% is a big number. We are very happy about the progress we've made. We think when we say 90% initiative, 9% completed, that is a very fast track for implementation. We will see substantial impacts probably from next year's first half onwards. We don't expect any impact on sales.
We expect impacts on inventories and simplification of the overall business. When we talk about retailers' prudence in handling inventory, you know that I rarely mention variations between sell-in and sell-out. In this instance, in this quarter, particularly in Europe, we do see some gaps or discrepancies between our current sell-out and the sell-in we observe in retailers.
Okay. I will take the first one.
You mean your sell-in was better than your sell-out?
No, my sell-in is worse than my sell-out.
Yes
That means they buy less than they sell.
Yeah. Exactly.
Okay.
In Europe or everywhere?
Mainly in Europe.
Mainly in Europe. Yeah. On the benefit, EUR 40 million-EUR 60 million effectively is on a full year basis, as we said, and we have about EUR 20 million contribution out of that in H1 already. That means an upside of EUR 20 million-EUR 40 million in H2 this year.
As Stanislas indicated, and as is stated on the chart, we are aiming to generate overall, as you know, EUR 200 million, it's over, let's say, the 2027/ 2028 horizon, which means that we want to lock in all the actions by the end of 2027. It doesn't mean to say necessarily that 100% of the benefit will be already in the P&L in 2027. There's likely to be some carryover because that would imply that all the actions are actually finished starting on the January 1st 2027, which is unlikely for some of them.
It's not a very precise answer, but I think you will understand, Marie-Line, that many of these actions are still in progress, so it's difficult to be much more precise. I would say a large bulk of the EUR 200 million will be already contributing to the performance in 2027. The numbers that we are showing are cumulative, of course.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Alessandro Cecchini from EQUITA. Please go ahead.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes.
Hello. Okay, perfect. Thank you. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Actually, the first one is on the tariff refunds. This is a gross amount or just to understand if you expect this kind of amount of money to give back to clients to support, I would say, sales in the U.S. Just if you would like to add these elements.
Sure.
The second one, just a clarification. In the first quarter, you had around EUR 10 million positive cost of sales. I understood correctly that you are estimating roughly on the cost side, of course, due to higher inflation, around EUR 30 million, three zero, negative in the second half, mostly due to the Iran situation. This could be very helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Maybe I'll take.
I'll take the second one. Your assumption is correct.
You took the easy one. Yes, on the tariff refund, we are specifically talking about the impact in the P&L, which is effectively EUR 15 million.
15
EUR 15 in H1. We're expecting probably some further positive impact, but more modest in the second half. Of course, there is no legal obligation to repay any of the refund to customers. Of course, it's all a matter of commercial negotiation. The relationship with our, let's say, customers, involves many different elements, and this is only one of them. That's all we can say, I think, at this stage. We are, let's say, confident that the EUR 15 million that we've registered in H1 will stay in the P&L.
Okay. Thank you. This is helpful. Secondly, on the FX side, you had EUR 12 million + on the ORfA. Given the hedging, of course, and given your short situation, you expect probably a similar magnitude in H2 given the current spot rates or just to dig into these numbers. Thank you.
As you say, given the current FX rates, it's always a bet. Net-net, we are probably expecting some further tailwind in H2 from FX, but it's difficult to put a hard number. It's probably not very far from H1.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Alessandro.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Geoffrey d'Halluin from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I will have two questions, please. The first one is related to China. We've seen a slowdown in Q2 compared to Q1. Well, happy to get your thoughts on what are the market condition in China and maybe what you could expect in the second half of the year. My second question is related to the heatwaves we had in Europe in the last few weeks. Could you just remind me how much of your product-
Geoffrey, we lost you, but I think I got your question. The second question is how much of your sales in Q2 are made of home comfort and fan-style products. Geoffrey, you're still there? We lost the connection with you. Anyway, [Non-English content] We'll answer your first question on the China slowdown in the second quarter. Well, I think, it is in the papers. We've seen that China has missed its consumption targets. We've seen our categories impacted by lower consumption.
We've made a clear choice of balancing between profit improvement and sales growth. At the same time, we've maintained or slightly improved our market share. We're on a fine line in the market, which is subdued. We don't have much visibility in the year to go. We don't expect it to get any worse. We don't see worsening market conditions in China, but equally, we don't see spectacular recovery or improvement. Heatwaves, Olivier?
Okay. Yes, of course, the heatwave has been, let's say, positive for fan sales in Europe. It's not, of course, the biggest region for fan sales. We sell much more in Latin America. However, it has contributed. We've seen, in fact, an increase of about 30% in the month of June compared to, let's say, the previous year. It remains, let's say, a relatively modest contribution compared to the whole size of the group.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Geoffrey d'Halluin from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I guess you know I've been disconnected, thanks for taking my questions.
Sorry?
Were you there when we answered Geoffrey? We lost him again.
Okay, we'll talk to him. Any other question?
There are no further questions at this time, I hand the conference back to the speaker for any closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you very much for your attention. I think it's a year that is unfolding, in terms of performance, the way we are expecting it. We are facing a lot of turbulences and a very volatile environment. We said since the beginning of the year that our actions would be driving and generating the bulk of the improvements in profit and in cash flow generation.
We are taking or facing the second half with the same determination of improving cash flow, improving profit, as we guide them. We see good progress in the implementation of our Rebound plan, both in terms of the evolution of the way we do marketing and in terms of our ability to generate the cost savings that we have. It's a good start of the year. As you know, the first half of the year is only a fraction of the full year.
We're aware of that, conscious of that, and we're very focused on delivering a very serious, disciplined, and solid second half. Thank you very much for your time. For those who take holidays, I wish you a good break and look forward to seeing some of you in the next few days in Montreal. Thank you.