Welcome to the Groupe SEB nine-month 2026 sales and financial data. Today's conference will be hosted by Loïc Moutault, Chief Executive Officer, and Olivier Casanova, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be on listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing # five on their telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, I want to say that I am very pleased to speak with you for the first time as Chief Executive Officer of Groupe SEB. I would like to, first and foremost, thank the board of directors for its trust. It is a real privilege for me to join this group, which has such a distinctive heritage, a truly international presence and global footprint. Over the next few minutes, I will say just a few words about myself, share some very early observations, and of course, explain and set out my priorities before Olivier will take you through our nine months performance and our year outlook. So, as you probably can hear, I am French from background, born in Burgundy. I have always heard about Groupe SEB in my entire childhood, so it is a real privilege to be here.
However, throughout my career, I have had a very international career. I worked 30 years in a global family-owned consumer goods group. I have had the opportunity to lead global brands in a really international environment, large scale industrial footprint. Most recently, I have had the opportunity to run businesses combining both consumer and professional services activities. I mostly worked in Europe, in multiple markets, but I have had as well the opportunity to work in Asia, which has probably been the most inspiring assignment in my life, at the time where Alibaba, Rakuten, and all the platform business and the digital acceleration of online were developed.
It has been such an inspiration that when coming back to Europe and global businesses, I have spent the last 10 years really digitalizing a lot of the business model that we have had in our organization, and move our businesses that were, in some cases, just B2B, to start engaging directly with consumers and developing a real footprint to be able to compete directly online. This product category is obviously very different, but the fundamentals are, I think, the same. Although this was in the last 10 years at the time of SEO, today, we are at the time of GEO.
I believe the fundamentals and the learnings of this kind of transformation, I can, of course, help reapplying and bringing to life in today's environment so that we can make our brands relevant to today's world, bring innovation faster in a global environment, and activate the consumer where they are, where they shop, and where they decide they're shopping. This is really what inspires me in this challenge. The early observation, I want to say that I've just joined on October 1st, so it's very early days, and obviously, I'm spending my time right now simply to listen and engage and learn with the team in the field, multiple one-to-ones, business reviews, site visits, customers encounter. So it's really a learning journey at this stage. These are still very early days, as I mentioned, but I've already been struck by a few things.
One is we have a unique portfolio of global and local brands with an incredible footprint in multiple categories. We have genuine love for products and great appetite for deep industrial know-how, which leads to actually fantastic innovation capabilities. We have a powerful combination of consumer and professional businesses, and I've had the opportunity to live in that kind of world, and I find that very powerful and inspiring. We have a distinctive sustainability model around repairability and eco design, which is quite rare actually, and a true strength for this organization. What attracted me to SEB, obviously, with my having worked in a family-owned business, is as well the family anchoring that we can benefit from with this ability to have long-term views and investment thesis. But above all, I think our teams around the organization, their expertise and the engagement are genuine.
There is a lot of passion in this organization, which I find inspiring myself. Today, our world is actually evolving very fast. We know that there is more digital, there is more viral. Everything, the consumer journey has evolved a lot and changed a lot. This is one of the muscles that certainly we need to develop at SEB in a strong way and in an accelerated way. Social media, social commerce shape demands today. I think 80%-90% of shopping decisions come from digital source. And certainly, we need to adapt our models to that. We are very fortunate that we're in a market where we can create demand. I think innovation is proving that we can create space in our categories. One could think that after more than 100 years in our industry, people have everything they need.
But the recent past has as well shown that it's still a category where we can innovate, we can create subcategories, we can bring consumers into different spaces and create a lot of value for this industry. That this is really what excites me. That we can bring consumers along the journey, and when we meet our market, we can create fantastic value. With brands like ours, which are global in footprint, it's a real opportunity. Obviously, we have a roadmap today, and the roadmap is the Rebound Plan, which is in full motion as we speak. It is our opportunity to seize the opportunity we have ahead of us. I see it as totally clear and relevant to make us more efficient and more agile as a group as well. Currently, we are on our objectives and on our timetable. We are delivering.
The team is fully focused on its execution. Olivier will talk about some of the early benefits we already see in 2026. I see my role not to redesign it. I see it to accelerate its execution and amplify its impact across our organization. First, we need to deliver on our cost objectives. We see the first signs in 2026, and this will accelerate in 2027, and we will deliver on our commitment. Second, there is really this ability in the plan to develop this new muscle of generating demand. In particular, how do we bring innovation faster to market? How do we scale, actually, our launches with new marketing practices in order to generate desirability of our innovations and our products and brands?
We have fantastic example already with Coffee Crush, Aerosteam, EverSharp, and the aim is to make it a systemic approach that we can bring across our organization and make it the rule and the playbook by which we want to play. Finally, there is a focus to simplify how we operate to bring more agility and more responsiveness in our organization. Obviously, it's a buzzword, but we all know that bringing AI solutions across our processes can make these simpler to execute, faster to respond, and free up energy in the organization so that we can focus on what creates value. We already see the first benefit of this in the way we develop content today and the way we start activating our brands, and I believe this is a key opportunity for us to diffuse this approach across the multiple processes that make this organization work.
We all know we are living in a very demanding environment, which is volatile, changing very fast, and impacts us in multiple ways. The recent events in France are only the last example of those. In this kind of environment, what is important is to focus on what we can control. What we can control is how we execute, how we innovate, and how we drive our costs with discipline. My personal method on onboarding in a new role is to invest time to do a deep diagnostic and build a team, and build with the team, the agenda by which we will drive our organization and lead our organization. To deploy at pace and at scale the practices that we see relevant to improve the ability of the business to create value.
Transformation of this nature are really large and big in a way, and they only last when the entire organization as a whole can appropriate it and make it theirs. We are not in it for isolated solution. We really want to evolve the way SEB is operating on the market. Finally, I want to conclude by reminding that our ambition is very clear. We want to return to profitable growth trajectory. The entire organization is mobilized behind this agenda. As it will be very pleasant for me after 15 days to present and comment any of our result, I will immediately hand over to Olivier, who will take you through the nine months performance and the full-year objective. Olivier?
Thank you, Loïc, and welcome.
Thank you.
Let's move to the first nine months results on page five with the highlights. In terms of sales, we reached EUR 5,707 million, which is up 1.1% organically, and our results from operation stood at EUR 333 million, which is up 25% and EUR 65 million versus the first nine months last year. in Q3, sales reached EUR 1,964 million, and were flat year-on-year. Our results from operation was up EUR 13 million- EUR 161 million in Q3. Beyond those figures on the following page, what are the other highlights? Well, clearly, as Loïc reminded us, we are operating in a very complex environment, both from an economic and, of course, geopolitical standpoint. In that environment, the Small Domestic Equipment market is somewhat resilient, and in large part in various categories, that is driven by innovation. I will come back to that.
We can note also, and this is compounded in Q3, that retailers in various parts of the world are, let's say, more cautious with inventory, and this is impacting slightly the Q3 performance. I have talked about the sales and ORfA, so I will not come back on that. On the Rebound Plan, we are progressing satisfactorily. The execution is in line with our expectation and in line with the timeline, and the effects indeed are already visible. We have EUR 20 million cost savings in H1, and we have added another EUR 15 million in Q3 to total EUR 35 million. The 2026 outlook has been confirmed, and in fact, even precised, so we are looking at a full-year ORfA growth between 5% and 10%.
We intend to return to a more normative free cash flow generation, and we have indicated that means free cash flow between EUR 350 million and EUR 450 million.
We intend to lower the financial leverage net debt to EBITDA, with a target, I remind you, of around 2x by end 2027. Let's comment on the sales first, moving to page eight. The nine-month sales, as you can see, is up organically by EUR 60 million. This is driven, as we will see, by the Americas in terms of geographies and by cookware and home and personal care in terms of product categories. The currency effect, as you can see, is modest overall this year at only -EUR 16 million. It was negative in Q1, flat in Q2, and in fact, it's turned positive in Q3 at +EUR 51 million. This is evident in the next slide when you look at the Q3 sales trajectory.
I'll comment, of course, on the breakdown of organic growth in the following pages, and you can see here the positive currency effect, in Q3 that I was talking about, which is due particularly to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan and the Colombian peso in our case. Let's look at the breakdown between consumer and professional. Professional is down nearly 5% on a nine-month basis and minus 9% in Q3. I'll come back to that, of course, very shortly. Consumer is up 1.9% on nine months and 1.1% in Q3. Let's start with the professional business. Of course, the first remark that we must always keep in mind is that we need to exercise caution when analyzing quarterly evolution year on year, of course, given the importance of large deals in our business.
That being said, the first message is that the core business and services are solid. The core business is holding up well, and services, in fact, is growing. It's usually around 30% of sales, and in Q3, it's even up to 35%, driven in particular by the U.S. and the U.K. What is, of course, explaining the performance is the low level of machine sales, in particular to large customers. We've seen a sharply lower contribution of large deals, notably in the U.S. and in Asia. In the U.S., we have a market which is still muted, with a wait and see attitude of many customers. We're also, of course, impacted in the Middle East by the conflict in the region. Finally, what is key, of course, for us for the future is that we're making strong progress strategically, with notably the ramp-up of the Shaoxing hub.
The two new models, Peak and Elevation, are now sold in more than 30 countries. It was only 15 at the end of June, so you can see that the distribution network is being set up rapidly across Europe and Asia in particular. This will help us, I remind you, address a customer base that we're not addressing very well in the past, which is the office and small business segment. The contribution of those sales is still modest year to date, but it will pick up rapidly starting in Q4, and our production is now, the ramp-up is behind us and the production is now at full speed. Let's look at consumer now. You can see the picture is very clear that the Americas are driving the growth for the group, and EMEA and Asia on a nine-month basis are showing only a modest increase.
Before we start looking at the regional performance, I wanted to draw your attention to a few of our recent innovation successes, starting with kitchen electrics. You can see, of course, we have talked many times about this, that Coffee Crush continues on its successful path. It is, of course, a very compact bean-to-cup machine, which is quite unique in the market. It is a great success. We have now launched it in 39 countries, and there are 10 more to come in the next six months. The second example is also, we think, quite interesting. It is the rice cooker called POP. It has been launched in Europe and in Asia in 2026. As you can see, it is targeting the Gen Z customers with a compact size and fun colors. We expect to sell over 250,000 pieces in 2026 alone.
On the cookware side, we are very pleased with the growth in cookware and kitchenware. It is, of course, the Ingenio line of product in all three, I would say, variations, non-stick, ceramic, and stainless steel. It is also the Fusion Core range, which is providing, as you know, improved surface treatment. In particular, the ceramic version is four times more resistant than the previous generation. Therefore addressing one of the main pain points of ceramic. On the next page on the home and personal care side, the floor washer category continues to grow very fast. It is supported by a continued range extension. We have launched in particular the X-Clean 12, which is the top of the range.
As you can see also, we have entered a replacement cycle, and here you have a picture of the X-Clean Vision Pro, which is going to replace X-Clean 10 and is manufactured in Supor in China. Secondly, the garment steamer, Aerosteam, is again, a great success. We have launched the Elite version in Europe and the S version in the U.S. and Asia. We sold it in 25 countries in the first half and now 30 countries in the second half. Finally, spot cleaner, Clean It, the range of product is now expanding. We have five models sold in 20 countries, and sales are doubling versus last year. We have sold nearly 650,000 pieces since the launch in 2024. I remind you that this is a new product category for us. After this review of product innovation, some product innovation, let us focus on EMEA.
Western Europe, as you can see in Q3, had a mixed performance at -1.5%. There is good momentum on online D2C sales. The latest launch has been very well received. I talked about Coffee Crush, Aerosteam Elite, but it is also the EverSharp knife blocks. We are, of course, to some extent, penalized by the lower inventory levels at retailers, both offline and online. In France, we are performing well, and we are still growing at a healthy pace in Q3, thanks to market share gains, driven by innovation and loyalty programs. Of course, the big sort of negative for us is still Germany, in terms of top-line growth. As you know, we are focusing on improving our profitability, and that is progressing satisfactorily, but the environment remains difficult, especially offline. In other EMEA countries, we have stable organic sales with very diverse situations.
Of course, we are experiencing major logistic disruptions in the Middle East. It's a small region for us overall, but it's nevertheless 10% of the other EMEA countries' geographic segment. We are progressing very well in Turkey and Egypt, driven in particular by online sales, and we have diverging trends in the rest of the region. In the Americas, of course, we are very happy to see double-digit growth both in North America and in South America in the quarter. In North America, as you may remember, we had, let's say, a negative trend in Q3 last year, which was down 14%, so the comparison basis was favorable. But nevertheless, we're seeing further market share gains in the U.S., in cookware and in home care. In cookware, in particular, we are gaining market share both in ceramic and stainless steel and holding our ground on non-stick, of course.
In Mexico, the market is quite competitive. The economy, of course, is suffering from lower levels of remittances, but we are seeing a successful launch of various products, including Coffee Crush. In South America, we are, let's say, returning to growth in this quarter. Of course, in large part, thanks to a sharp increase in fan sales given the start of the effect of El Niño. And this is across the subcontinent. In Colombia, we have double-digit growth, so very healthy performance, thanks to market share gains in our traditional categories such as cookware, but also very good momentum in our product extension. We've ventured into floor washers and now launched Coffee Crush, and this product expansion is re-driving sales. In Brazil, we are operating in a complex environment, but the sales are up in Q3 despite the difficulties in physical retail. Let's turn now to Asia.
In China, we have stable sales, of course, in a complex consumer environment. As we've indicated before, we are trying to find the right balance between sales growth, market share, and profitability. We are gaining market shares in this highly promotional market, thanks to a very good performance on social commerce. We are still the leader. We're number one in culinary segment in TikTok, which now represents nearly 25% of our online sales. We see also strong contribution from various innovations. We're very successful with our titanium woks. We have launched a new evolution of
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Sales. This is driven by an improved-
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Improved gross margin thanks to higher volumes, but also a positive impact from short currencies in the quarter. This is despite the rising negative impact from cost inflation linked to the Iran conflict. It is also driven by strong cost discipline. Of course, discipline in operating cost and the first benefits of the Rebound Plan. Again, EUR 15 million more in Q3 to a total of EUR 35 million in the first nine months. To be noted, we only had a minor positive impact from U.S. tariff refunds in the quarter. Let's now turn to the performance of the Rebound Plan and the outlook. Starting with the chart on the left-hand side, you can see that we are updating our estimate of the benefit for 2026. It was previously in June, EUR 40 million-EUR 60 million. We are upgrading that to EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million.
We are seeing, of course, more rapid benefit on indirect procurement. That is what the chart shows. Looking at the target of EUR 200 million, you can see that the actions that are being taken on structural cost and industrial efficiency will represent the majority of the EUR 200 million savings. Let's look at the progress now on organization, which is the reduction of structural cost and improvement of industrial efficiency. We are progressing very well. All the labor agreements are now signed for the voluntary departure plans. The departures, in fact, are underway, started in September. The implementation is on schedule, and we believe that the initial targets in terms of reductions will be achieved by the end of March. On indirect purchases, you remember that we are looking to generate 5%-6% savings on the scope targeted.
We have now more than 500 actions launched, this is up from the 400 that we announced in June, and two-thirds of the total savings are now secured at the end of September. This is addressing many areas, of course, IT, marketing, logistics, facility management, to name a few. On the cross-functional levers, the first one being the simplification and optimization of our processes and organization, we are progressing well, notably on development, supply chain management, and marketing practices. On the other initiative, which is the reduction in our SKU count by 25% to 30%, we have now identified 100% of those products, and 50% of these actions have been initiated at the end of September. To conclude, let's look at the 2026 outlook, starting on the left-hand side with the environment.
Of course, since we last spoke at the end of July, we can see that the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has in fact somewhat deteriorated. The agreement of 17th of June was, of course, short-lived, and the oil price, to take one key, let's say, pointer, is up 25% since July to $110 today. Inflation is now progressively also impacting consumption in various parts of the world, and we're seeing some cost inflation pressure starting to materialize. That being said, the Small Domestic Equipment market is showing more resilience than other sectors, notably supported by innovations. In this environment, Groupe SEB will be relying on its own actions, which is first our healthy innovation pipeline with both the ramp-up of new product launched in Q2 and Q3 geographic expansion and further range expansions.
We are, of course, targeting some selective price actions to compensate some of the cost increases, not so much on listed price, but managing carefully the average selling price. We are, of course, continuing with our strict discipline on COGS and OPEX and accelerating on the benefit of the Rebound Plan. I want to point out also that Q4. I'll remind you that Q4 last year was actually quite a high comparison base. It was the third highest ever, in fact, very close to the second. It was a good performance in absolute levels. With these remarks in terms of context, we are confirming our outlook for the year. In fact, we are refining the outlook on ORfA. We're now targeting a growth between 5% and 10% versus only full-year ORfA growth previously.
We confirm the objective to return to a more normative free cash flow generation, continuing the trend evidenced in H1, and we confirm also the objective to lower the financial leverage with the target to return to around two times by the end of 2027. So that concludes, Loïc, the presentation on the nine months results, and I think we can now turn to Q&A.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six. The next question comes from Ope Otani from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, gentlemen. Three quick questions from me. Just on cost out guiding to EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million this year. You've done EUR 35 million year to date. Since I suppose you have EUR 15 million- EUR 25 million for the rest of the year in Q4. I suppose, how do you think, what would determine where we end up on that range?
Ope Otani, your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Hopefully, you can hear me now. I was going to ask three questions. Just on the cost out. You're guiding to EUR 50 million- EUR 60 million now, implies EUR 15 million- EUR 25 million for Q4. I suppose, could you just walk us through how I should think of what might determine where we end up on that range?
Sorry, we lost the speaker connection. I am going to reconnect, and I will ask you to repeat your question again. Sorry.
Okay. Sure. No worry.
I do it now.
Okay.
Okay. Sorry for this interruption. I think we have the speakers back. Mr. Otani, please give your question again, please.
Sure. Hi. Hopefully, you can hear me now. Hi, Loïc. Hi, Olivier. Thanks for taking
Hello
my question. Hi. I suppose three questions from my end, one on the cost out range, one the implied ORfA range, and then just what you see now in terms of trading. I suppose on cost out, the EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million guide implies EUR 15 million-EUR 25 million in Q4. I suppose, could you just walk through what would determine where we end up on that range based on how you talk about visibility to cost out action?
Do you want to ask your three questions first, Ope? Then we'll
Yeah, sure. Also, just, I suppose the second one is just on the ORfA guide. I suppose 5%-10% as well implies EUR 30 million-EUR 60 million increase. Could you just walk us through the various buckets in that? I suppose my question there was more so EUR 30 million-EUR 60 million increase versus EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million cost out. So how should we think of the delta there and sort of commodity headwinds as well? Then lastly, sort of any early commentary on trading so far in the quarter based on what you've seen. Yeah, I'll leave it there.
Okay. I will take those questions. I think the first one was on the cost out. We are still deploying many actions in the quarter. I think we feel reasonably confident on the trajectory, but there are still, especially on indirect procurement, until you have closed the new agreements and you started to implement them, there is still some element of, let us say, uncertainty. So we are very confident on the EUR 200 million. But in terms of timing, we will only confirm once we have reached all our, let us say, agreements, especially on indirect procurement. Regarding the 5%-10% range, I think the way to look at it is the upper end of the range is based on the assumption that we have, let us say, on the cost side, we have, of course, the impact of the cost inflation linked to the Middle East situation.
We said in July that we expected around EUR 30 million net impact over the second half, and we confirmed that. We had some elements, some impact in Q3, and of course, an acceleration in Q4. We also think that the positive FX headwinds that we had on procurement cost in the third quarter will be less prominent and probably negative, in fact, in Q4. Against that, we have, of course, the acceleration of the benefit from Rebound. So as you can tell, EUR 15 million-EUR 25 million additional savings in Q4, and also probably some additional contribution from U.S. tariff reimbursement. So this is what, let us say, drives us to the top end of the range, the 5%-10% range.
The lower end of the range would reflect a slightly more negative demand environment impacted by the rising inflation in many parts of the world, and also maybe some additional price pressure linked to the softer environment. So this is, let us say, the uncertainty that drives us to the 5%-10% range. Your last question was on current trading. To be honest, we hesitate to express a view today because we are living in a very uncertain world. But we are concentrating on our product launches, we are concentrating on being as efficient as possible in our activation. And we are trying to navigate this complex environment, but it is difficult to be more precise at this stage, given, let us say, the volatile environment in which we operate.
Not to mention, of course, in France, the events of the last weekend, even though France is only a small part of our group. In overall, it is less than 10% of our full year sales. But nevertheless, it is another, let us say, evidence of the difficult and complex environment in which we operate.
Great. Thanks very much for your answers.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Marie-Line Fort from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good evening. The first question is about the professional division. Just would like to know how has evolved your order book recently. You mentioned that you think that you could factor in some orders in small machine in Q4. Is it really Q4 that we could see some momentum improvement on model 2027? One question is about the risk arising from the legal actions in Rumilly from the usage of PFAS. Just to know if you are worried about that, and what is the calendar to know when will be the issue. The last question is about the innovation pipeline. You show some nice pictures in the presentation. Can we still expect some new products for the Christmas period? Could you just comment on what will fuel your commercial activities at the end of the year? Thank you very much.
Okay. Merci, Marie-Line. First on professional. To be honest, we are not expecting a significant change in the general environment, and I think the wait-and-see attitude will probably prevail in Q4. That being said, the performance in Q3, I think, was very specific to this quarter, so we are not expecting a similar, let's say, percentage drop in Q4, but we are continuing to see, let's say, some prudent customers. That being said, we are confident on the ramp-up of our sales of small machines, the Peak and Elevation, because our production has now reached, let's say, nominal capacity. And I think we have, let's say, very good prospects to, let's say, really pick up our revenue in this segment. Again, let's exercise caution in the current environment, but we are progressing on the fundamentals of the business.
Concerning the situation concerning the PFAS, I think you are probably referring to the formal notice that was served by various associations regarding the vigilance plan. What we can say at this stage is that, of course, we have taken note of this notice. We are examining it carefully, and we will respond in the timeframe. It concerns, as you know, the vigilance plan and, in particular, the measures regarding the identification, prevention, and mitigation of certain risks. And this vigilance plan is, in particular, in our 2025 universal registration document. Of course, we have said many times the use of non-stick products using PTFE coating presents no harm for human health. We have a long list of organizations which testify to that, not to mention the World Health Organization or the European Food Safety Authority. I think that's well documented.
However, the vigilance plan, of course, is updated regularly, so we are going to take, of course, a look at it. We remain, of course, open to discussions, including with these associations behind this initiative. And as I mentioned, we will respond in due course to the remarks expressed regarding our vigilance plan.
Innovation.
On innovation, the pipeline we have, of course, we will have the ramp-up from the products that have been launched in Q2 and Q3. In Q4, we will benefit in particular among the products I haven't mentioned from the increased range of our X-Force products of vacuum cleaners, in particular the 2080, which is, let's say, the highest, the most premium product that we have launched in this category, and which is both the most powerful and the most silent in its category. So, this will certainly be, let's say, an interesting product to follow. We have, of course, the ramp-up from the various Fusion Core. We have the next generation of, well, an expansion of our EverSharp range with the Daily after the Pro, the Daily EverSharp, which is, let's say, addressing a lower price segment. Again, many innovations.
Not to mention an interesting product which is currently being launched in the U.K., which is Yum Meal. Marie-Line, I encourage you to watch the video on YouTube, and I will be interested in your feedback on this product. It is quite an innovative and very cute product, very smart.
I will. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Alessandro Cecchini from Equita. Please go ahead.
Hello, everybody, and thank you for taking my questions. About pricing, you stated that you are thinking or you are launching selective price hikes. Just to understand, is it something to address 2027 inflationary pressure expected or do you think that you could have some traction also in the fourth quarter? Looking at 2027, I know that, of course, it's early, but on the professional side, do you expect actually to return, or which kind of growth you expect after a year that it's ending probably below our, but also your expectations. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. The price hikes, as you say, are there to address, to pass on some of the cost inflation that we are experiencing. It's part of our, let's say, arsenal of measures to counter this. The others being, of course, let's say, industrial efficiency and cost savings, but also a new redesign to cost initiative and renegotiation with our suppliers. It's a combination of measures which will help us to address the cost inflation. We are implementing those measures as we speak. In fact, starting September, October. It's progressive. As I mentioned, it will not be principally by addressing listed prices, but more managing, maybe more, let's say, selectively promotions in order to improve the average selling price. We're also, of course, where possible, adjusting the launch price for some of our, let's say, attractive innovations where it is possible.
This is going to start impacting Q4, let's say, profits and will, of course, continue to impact 2027. Regarding the professional, again, I hesitate to make, let's say, a forecast on 2027 because this is largely dependent on, let's say, the global environment and the attitude of our large deals. What I can say is that we feel relatively confident on the core business. We feel good about the development of our service business, and should continue to grow next year. What will be the attitude of large customers and what will be the volume of large deals? Honestly, it's difficult to tell at this stage. But we will, of course, benefit from the ramp-up of our Shaoxing hub. We've had, of course, let's say, the full production capacity available only in the last three to four months of the year.
Next year, of course, we should have 12 months benefit from this capacity. This will bring a positive dynamism to our sales next year. But on large deals, difficult to tell.
Okay. Many thanks.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Chiara Tomesani from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, and thank you. My question, I would like to ask a clarification regarding the ORfA guidance. Before you mentioned some tariff refunds and the impact from FX in the second half. Could you please provide us some more color there? The second question would be on the professional pipeline, and I was wondering whether there is any update to share. Lastly, I would like to ask if you are seeing any signs that retailers are rebuilding inventory into Q4. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Chiara. On ORfA, as I mentioned, there are, let's say, positives and negative forces. On the negative side with, let's say, acceleration of the cost inflation impact, and some FX headwinds due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the CNY. We will have, let's say, probably low double-digit negative impact from short currencies in Q4. At least that's what we can expect as of today. On the positive side, I mentioned the benefit from Rebound. We've indicated a EUR 15 million- EUR 25 million additional benefit and then probably some additional contribution from U.S. tariff repayment. If you want to be more specific, I think it's going to be mid to high single digit. Regarding the pro pipeline, again, what we can say is that we're building a range of new product to address the small businesses and offices segment.
We've launched the first two, but we have more on our roster of new product. We're also continuing to develop product for large customers. As you know, a number of our product are, in fact, customer specific, and so there are, let's say, very interesting initiatives being pursued right now, but it's too early to say more at this stage. Regarding the consumer business, to be honest, we are not expecting a rebuilding of inventory at this stage. I think in the current, very uncertain environment with inflationary pressure impacting consumer spend, we expect distributors generally to remain very cautious, both offline and online, and to maintain relatively, let's say, low levels of inventory. There's no reason, at least at this stage, no evidence that there should be any restocking soon.
Thank you so much.
Okay.
The next question comes from Fraser Donlon from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi there, Olivier, and welcome, Loïc. It's Fraser here from Berenberg. I just had three questions. The first was on the tariff rebate. I don't know if you could maybe give an indication or a closer indication of the magnitude of that in Q3 and then what we should expect in Q4. The second question is about the professional business and how you're thinking about cost and if you could almost give a reminder the Rebound Plan touches that division today, just because I'm imagining maybe margins are a little bit under pressure and how you see the pathway to recovering there. The third question, could you just remind me, if there's any loyalty program FX in France, either in Q3 or if we should consider any particular impacts then in Q4, if not? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Fraser. On the tariff, as I mentioned, it's a minor impact on Q3. So minor means low single digit. On Q4, I think I've mentioned, let's say between mid to high single digit impact. So I think that's as precise as I can be at this stage. On the professional, of course, we are continuing to work on cost optimization, and yes, you are right, professional is part of the Rebound Plan, both on, let's say, industrial efficiency measures, but also on optimization of our OPEX. So it's definitely a part of Rebound. On loyalty program, there was a benefit on loyalty program in Q3 in France, as we've mentioned. In general, we have a good level of loyalty program this year against quite a low level last year. So it has been positive.
But again, loyalty program, as we always say, this is part of our bread and butter business, so it's absolutely normal. It's just that we single them out because in one quarter they can represent a significant variation element from one year to another. But that it's absolutely, let's say, normal. We've had a loyalty program in particular impacting positively our sales of personal care products. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your questions. Let me now hand over the call to the speakers for closing remarks.
Thank you very much, everyone. As you've noticed, I haven't been a lot of help for Olivier this time as I've just joined the business, and I'm looking forward for our call in February, where maybe I will be a bit more supportive. Thank you, Olivier, for answering all the questions on our behalf. Thank you for joining us and your questions, and we look forward for more encounters going forward. Thank you. Thank you very much.