TF1 SA (EPA:TFI)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 27, 2023

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the TF1 2023 Q3 and nine months results call. My name is Laura, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to your host, Pierre-Alain Gérard, Executive Vice President Finance, Strategy and Procurement , to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you, Laura. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this morning's call, where we will be presenting results for the first nine months and the third quarter of 2023. On today's agenda, a review of our activities, followed by a deeper dive into our financial results, and finally, a reminder of our outlook and strategy. Let's begin with the key highlights of the period on Slide 4. First, increased audiences in our key commercial targets, reinforcing our leadership position and notably driven by record viewing figures for the Rugby World Cup. Second, media advertising revenues, which were up by almost 10% year-on-year at constant perimeter in the third quarter, and notably a 25% rise for MYTF1 streaming platform, highlighting the success of our digital acceleration strategy.

Third, ongoing robust margins with a Q3 group COPA margin up 0.9% year-on-year. Finally, a good cash flow generation contributing to a solid financial position. I would add that based on this nine-month performance, our objectives for full year 2023 are confirmed. I will come back to all of these points later. Let's now turn to a detailed activity review around our media and Newen Studios business. On Slide 6, as a reminder, TF1 Group, which is an audience of some 50 million viewers per week, offering a unique value proposition to advertisers. Since the start of the year, it has reinforced its leadership position on key commercial audience targets while showcasing its ability to manage its programming costs.

In particular, TF1 Channel achieved a solid audience share of 22.9% among women under 50, up 0.7% year-on-year, representing a lead on its closest competitor, +9.2 points, which gathered pace relative to H1. As for individuals aged between 25 and 49, the channel recorded a strong 20.1% audience share, a robust increase of 0.6 points. On a daily basis, the overall television reach remained at a high level of 74%, demonstrating its ongoing competitive pertinence. Within the French media landscape, TF1 Group continued to dominate with a daily reach of 51%, higher than any other media, including YouTube and Netflix. All in all, we have maintained this reach thanks to our unique program lineup, built around ambitious regular event on TF1 and a distinctive complementary offer on our DTT channels.

At end September, our flagship channel recorded the 49 out of the 50 best ratings among women below 50 and the 25, 49 categories. During the third quarter, we generated record audiences, thanks to a strong and event-driven lineup, including, of course, the Rugby World Cup, recording the best audience of the year at 8th September for the opening match with 15.6 million viewers, as well as Associated Sports Bulletin or even news with the French presidential interview, which attracted 5.7 million viewers. On Slide 8, with advertising revenue up 16% for the first nine months, the MYTF1 streaming platform further confirmed its growth potential.

It delivered on average 27.4 million streamers over the eight months to end August 2023, and recorded a total of 683 million hours of viewing, representing a rise of 8% year-on-year, twice the level of the broader market, which progressed by 4%. This performance was driven by the success of our strong linear franchises in streaming, such as the popular daily soaps, Ici tout commence and Demain nous appartient, as well as the groundbreaking medical drama, Les Bracelets Rouges. Moreover, the Rugby World Cup provided the opportunity to successfully test new interactive features, notably with Top Chrono, providing on-demand match summaries. Turning to Newen Studios.

The first nine months have proven challenging in revenue terms, reflecting a very tough 2022 comparison basis with the end of the popular daily soap, Plus belle la vie for France Télévisions, as you know, and the activity with Salto following its closure. Accentuated by the delivery in Q3 2022, a flagship series, Liaison for Apple TV+ and Marie Antoinette for Canal+. This was specific for Q3 2022. It also reflects lower demand from broadcaster and platform in 2023. In this context, the current operating profits for our Newen Studios for the third quarter amounted to EUR 6.6 million, representing a margin of 10.3%, stable quarter-on-quarter, and above the level of Q3 2022.

The focus for Newen Studios in 2023 is to build on its competitive advantages, which include a diverse customer portfolio for premium content, as well as recognized expertise in categories such as daily soaps, which fits strongly with the group's strategy of integration. Now let's move to our financial performance on Slide 11. Nine months, 2023 consolidated revenues for TF1 Group amounted to EUR 1,548 million, down 8% at constant perimeter. In the third quarter, consolidated revenues amounted to EUR 509 million, down 6% at constant perimeter. Total revenue for the media segment amounted to EUR 445 million in Q3, up 11% at constant perimeter.

Media advertising revenues stood at EUR 351 million, a robust 10% increase at constant perimeter, notably driven by an advertising rebound over the summer and by the Rugby World Cup in September. Within this, the media advertising revenue from MYTF1 pursued their strong dynamics with a 25% year-on-year increase to EUR 22 million. Non-advertising media revenues stood at EUR 94 million, up 17% at constant perimeter. This performance was notably driven by the positive performance of interactive features proposed during the Rugby World Cup. Revenues of Newen amounted to EUR 64 million, down 54%, reflecting a tough prior year base effect. I will return to this.

On Slide 12, for the first nine months, current operating profit from activities, COPA, stood at EUR 204 million, down 16% year-on-year, and implying a margin of 13%, close to that of 2022. Third quarter COPA stood at EUR 52 million, up 1%. It equated to a margin of 10.1%, up 0.9%. Within this, the media margin was up 1.1% in the context of the Rugby World Cup, demonstrating our ability to to monetize major sporting events. Newen Studios maintained a margin of 10.3%, up 0.3%, stable quarter-on-quarter, and above the level of Q3 2022. Looking further down the income statement on page 13, current operating profit for the third quarter amounted to EUR 51 million.

After other operating income and expense, operating profits stood at EUR 45 million. It included a net EUR 5 million negative impact of non-recurring items. These items are mainly linked to the rationalization of our real estate with the consolidation of our HQ premises in Paris, in the context of the recently launched cost optimization plan. Net profit attributable to the group was EUR 38 million, up 57% year-on-year. Let's now take a look at the evolution of, of our, net cash position. At end September 2023, the net cash position stood at EUR 364 million, up from EUR 296 million a year earlier.

It represents a 20% increase of EUR 69 after, I remind you, a dividend of EUR 105 million in April 2023. Over the first nine months, Free Cash Flow before change in working capital amounted to EUR 112 million and EUR 161 million after a change in working capital, reflecting operating cash flow of EUR 316 million, down year-on-year, reflecting the decline in activity of both segments. A circa EUR 50 million improvement in working cap needs, a net CapEx of EUR 184 million, down year-on-year, reflecting the slowdown in activity at Newen Studios. The amount of lease obligation was roughly stable versus last year, so this led to EUR 364 million at the end of the quarter. Turning now to the outlook.

The fourth quarter of 2023 will be marked by a strong lineup of premium programming. This includes, of course, the Rugby World Cup, with 10 matches in Q4, including the final phases broadcast on prime time. The quarterfinal between France and South Africa attracted 16.5 million viewers, representing the best audience of the year. Elsewhere, we have the return of powerful brands in the serial general entertainment segment, most notably the talent show, Star Academy, or the new exclusive French drama, Master Crimes, with both a high linear and streaming appeal. As a reminder, we are pursuing our strategy roadmap based on three pillars: maximizing the value of our linear inventory by continuing to develop a high quality offer of events, series, and general entertainment to consolidate our reach and maximize the value of our advertising inventories.

At the same time, we will remain, we will retain a strong discipline over programming costs. The MYTF1 streaming platform will pursue its ambition to be the benchmark French free-to-view streaming service, leveraging the synergies with the group's unparalleled content lineup and maximizing the value of its inventory through a reinforced data strategy. Newen Studios will leverage its strong talent pool to develop projects to underpin growth in the years ahead. Turning to our outlook for 2023 as a whole. In the media segment, the advertising market in the second half could return to a similar level to that of 2022, and we should more or less follow the same trend.

TF1 Group revenues will benefit from the broadcast of the final stages of the Rugby World Cup in Q4, as well as the return of major franchises such as the Talent Show Star Academy, with both high linear and streaming appeal. In the media segment, we will further consolidate our linear leadership and accelerate in digital. After delivering numerous flagship projects in 2022, 2023 represents a year of transition for Newen Studios, during which it will leverage its strong talent pool to develop new projects to underpin growth in the years ahead. In this context, and based on the performance of the first nine months, the group's objectives are confirmed: further cement its leadership position and maintain a broadly stable current operating margin from activities in 2023, sorry.

Generate strong free cash flow, underpinning a shareholder remuneration policy of a growing or stable dividend in the coming years. A few words to sum up. TF1 delivered a robust performance in the third quarter, underpinned by major events like the Rugby World Cup, boosting audience shares and advertising revenues. Our margins remain solid across all business segments. The MYTF1 streaming platform confirmed its growth potential, leveraging the unparalleled content offer of the group. Our nine months cash flow generation is solid, contributing to a robust financial position. Looking ahead, we have a strong lineup for the fourth quarter, associated with ongoing meticulous cost control. As a reminder, this is supplemented with a cost optimization plan aimed at achieving over EUR 40 million in operational cost savings from 2025 onwards, of which 10 to 15 will be reinvested in the digital acceleration plan.

Our objective for fiscal year 2023 are confirmed based on our nine months performance. Thank you for your attention, and I'm now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. That is, star one on your telephone keypad for questions. Thank you. We'll now take our first question from Conor O'Shea at Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Conor O'Shea
Head of Media Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Yes, thank you. Morning, everybody. So, a few questions for me. First, on the early signs in the fourth quarter, what are you seeing in advertising in terms of November, so I say post Rugby World Cup, in terms of demand, is that holding up? Second, in terms of studios, I understand that, you know, the comp effect from last year on Q3, but you also mentioned general weaker demand from broadcasters and maybe from the streaming platforms. So, what are you thinking about studios going into Q4 and particularly into next year? Can we get back to the positive growth that early?

And then the last question on just I think you mentioned that TF1 is undergoing a digital transformation internally. So maybe you could just explain a little bit some practical examples of that, what's happening behind the scenes. Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Okay. Thank you, Conor. Regarding Q4, if you take the forecast for, you know, the agencies, the Dentsu, the other sources like MAGNA, et cetera, you see that there is some kind of consensus around a -3% decrease in the market overall for the year. Which implies a second half of the year coming back to 2022 level. We should more or less follow this. Then, if your question is referring to the geopolitical tension that we see, for example, since the beginning of October, we don't see any change at this stage in the figures that we have. So no, it's holding up, to answer your question.

Conor O'Shea
Head of Media Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Regarding studio, you know that since the beginning of the year, and that's what we told you with Rodolphe during the call for the fiscal year 2022, the year for Newen is really essentially made during Q3 and Q4. So Q4 will be a stronger quarter, but within a year which has a strong comparison basis with 2022. And as you know, you've seen the streaming platforms decreasing their investments during 2022, and broadcasters weathering the cycles and the decrease in the advertising market across Europe. So this is something for 2023, but we see a strong potential for 2024 and 2025.

Conor O'Shea
Head of Media Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Mm.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Newen has numerous discussions with the broadcasters and many projects in the pipe. So, you know, the market is sound, the fundamentals of the market are sound. So, 2020-2023 looks like, you know, a specific year for-

Conor O'Shea
Head of Media Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Sure.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

for Newen. Now, regarding digital... This is mostly about, you know, moving to the streaming platform. We have to add several new skills within TF1. We have more than 100 position, job positions open within the group to add skills, you know, in ad tech, in data, several skills that TF1 was slightly lacking in the past. And we have a new head of data with François-Xavier Pierrel, who joined us at the beginning of October and is building up this business within TF1.

Conor O'Shea
Head of Media Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Very clear. Many thanks, Pierre.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Christophe Cherblanc at Société Générale. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one was on streaming. We are seeing Netflix launching an ad, an advertising for the tier. Disney seems to be planning the same. Amazon is starting to insert ads. What's your best guess about the excess inventory or the additional inventory this will add on the French TV market? Not in Q4, but maybe two, three years from now. On the same subject, on Slide 8, you mentioned 682 million, I think, hours being streamed. Is that for the quarter or the month? And could we have a sense of what is the total amount to which that 682 million could be compared? So that's the first question.

The second one is, on Newen. Can you give us, the impact of the SMAD decree, whether that had, had any impact in 2023, and what you can expect for 2024? And just a quick reminder on the, the impact of the, the sales to Salto last year. And finally, on working capital, sorry, to, to add the last question, EUR 58 million positive inflow at the nine-month stage, should we expect, the same kind of amount at the end of the year, or a neutral working capital on a full-year basis? Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you, Christophe. So, regarding streaming, yes, you, you're right, Netflix is launching an ad funding offer. Disney as well. They have announced that they will price their CPM for Netflix at around EUR 50, and we hear around EUR 40 for Disney. We see it as a positive, a positive price point for us. If the market can converge, that's good for us, we think. Since Netflix launched its offer, there has been less diversity among its advertising clients, 15 currently versus around 40 a year ago. It proved that no other medium can offer the unrivaled reach of TV. But overall, we see it as, you know, a, a positive, a positive sign regarding the strategy that we are launching.

Then, going back to your second question, it was 683, to be precise, and it's the accumulated amount of hours during the first eight months of the year, the number of hours are streamed. And this is within a total of 8.5 billion hours for TF1+, MyTF1. Then for Newen, yeah, the SMAD decree has no major impact on 2023. You know, for Newen, for what you have to keep in mind is that 2023 has a tough comparison basis compared to 2022, as you know, with many deliveries in 2022, and specifically for Q3.

You might have noticed that for, you know, the Netflix and other platforms have decreased their investment during this year. But the rest of the market is sound, and the demand is there for the years coming ahead. And we are not giving guidance on the working cap. What I can tell you is that it's a strong focus for the company, about, you know, cash flow, cash flow generation. This is part of our guidance, as you know. We aim at having a stronger cash flow generation to support a stable or growing dividend policy. So this is a key focus for TF1.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Follow-up. Did you say that Netflix had only 15 clients, 15 advertising clients?

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

That's what we heard.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. That's super low. Okay. And just to come back on the SMAD, the... Okay, 2023 is quiet, but are you expecting a catch-up in 2024? Because I do remember the orders of magnitude being mentioned at the time of the decree, and given the level of investment, I would have expected, given the Newen market share in France, to see some impact on the- on your top line.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

... Yeah, this is due to stimulate the top line growth, of course. What you have to keep in mind, and then this is something that we've been repeating since the beginning of the year, that the production cycles within the production industry are pretty long. The good thing is that, as we said, 2023, Newen—during 2023, Newen has been working on, you know, many projects, but for 2024 and 2025. And probably part of it will come from what you are mentioning.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Okay, thank you. Maybe if I can squeeze a very last one, housekeeping question. The tax rate was low at the nine-month stage. What's your best, best estimate of the full year tax rate?

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

It's still early to say. The comparison compared to last year is that what you have to take into account is that there were losses. But I think it's going the other way around, rather than lowering the tax rate. There is a comparison effect compared to last year and the tax rate, given the fact that Salto was losing and providing a tax shield. So the effective tax rate was lower last year.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Yeah, but it's still low.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

It should be a rather normative by the end of the year, so no specific impact.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Tom Singlehurst at Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tom Singlehurst
Head of European Media Research, Citi

Thank you very much for taking my question. Tom here from Citi. I'm sure you've mentioned it in the past, but I just wanted to sort of check. The MYTF1 performance, obviously very impressive. I'm interested in the relationship between sort of viewing numbers and advertising revenue. I can't quite see in the presentation whether you've given a firm number for sort of total unique sort of streamers or streaming hours in the quarter. I'm just interested whether that tallies sort of directly with the advertising performance, or whether there are any other moving parts in terms of, you know, pricing, which you mentioned a minute ago, or sort of advertising load.

The reason I ask is just because, you know, running into next year, I mean, obviously, you won't necessarily have the same scale of events, but if growth in viewership continues, should we just expect the ad revenue on MYTF1 to track that directly? That was the first question. And the second question was, Newen, I completely understand you're gonna have less U.S. exposure, so it's not gonna be a direct impact, but is there any indirect impact, perhaps from the writers strike up in the U.S.? Does it maybe create an opportunity to sell French content into the U.S. market? Or is it... Any thoughts on that would be very much appreciated. Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you very much. So, regarding MYTF1, you know, that the 27.4 million of streamers that we have, you know, on average. And the numbers that we mentioned is 27.4, on average for the first nine months of the year. And this is obviously the starting point. Then, is there a direct relationship between that and the advertising revenue? The answer is no. You need to take into account several assumptions, like the advertising pressure that we put, the number of minutes of ads in an hour. Of course, the price, the CPM that we are billing.

These are things that we are not discussing, but you can work the math backwards. On Newen and the strike, there hasn't been, in 2023, a major impact, but you know, we have an activity in Canada, which is not under the same unions. So there could be an opportunity there. And also, with... There could be a limited impact on the animation business. But otherwise, it's pretty limited for Newen. Rather an opportunity than a threat.

Tom Singlehurst
Head of European Media Research, Citi

That's very clear. Thank you very much.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. As a final reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. I will take a follow-up question, once again from Tom Singlehurst at Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tom Singlehurst
Head of European Media Research, Citi

Sorry, it's l'esprit de l'escalier from me. So I do apologize. Actually, one other thing I'm interested in around the World Cup is whether you think there was a distinct impact from the World Cup being hosted in France. And obviously, it's been good in terms of in the right time zone and the games have been fairly compelling. But the reason I ask that is running into next year and the Olympics, do you think the fact that it will be a sort of France-based or Paris-based Olympics will make a difference to the ad market? Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you. Yeah, of course, it's not easy to quantify, but the fact that it was in France obviously played. But I think what you have to keep in mind regarding TF1 and major sporting events, it's the ability of our teams to monetize better and better major sporting events. So being in France or in other countries, I think the level of proficiency of the team is very high, and this is a strong asset for us. I think this is the most important regarding sporting events. And yes, you could expect some positive impact of the Olympics next year, regarding the ad market.

Tom Singlehurst
Head of European Media Research, Citi

Very clear. Thank you again.

Operator

Thank you. Since there are no further questions, I will now hand it back to Pierre-Alain for closing remarks. Thank you.

Pierre-Alain Gérard
EVP of Finance, Strategy, and Procurement, TF1 Group

Thank you very much. So maybe just to close up the call. We have delivered a very strong Q3, a strong Q3 compared to last year, with a higher margin in every segment. And we are entering into the last part of the year with a very strong balance sheet. So this is why we confirm our guidance for 2023 today. And thank you very much for your questions and for your time.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe. You may now disconnect.

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